AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1000 AM CST WED MAR 7 2007
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED AT 1000 AM
TRAILING CLOUD BAND FROM LAST NIGHTS SHORT WAVE IS INTEREACTING WITH
SHALLOW LAKE PLUME UNDER A BROAD NE FLOW. ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW
STRONG INVERSION TO 800MB OR SO THUS CLOUDS ARE SHALLOW BUT WILL
LKLY BE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RADAR DETECTS A FEW
PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW APPROACHING IL SHORELINE FROM THE NE AND A FEW
FLAKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT MDW THIS MRNG. GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF
CLOUDS AND ORIGIN OFF LAKE HAVE UPDATED FIRST PERIOD FCST TO REFLECT
MORE CLOUDS ALL AREAS AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE AND JUST INLAND UNTIL MID AFTN. TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING THIS
MORNING BUT FCST MAXS LOOK REASONABLE SINCE ANOTHER 3-5 DEG RISE
EVEN UNDER CLOUDS BUT STRONGER MARCH SUN ANGLE IS DOABLE. KML
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
345 AM CST
LT SNOW COMING TO AN END ACROSS NW INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING AS WAA
SLIDES EAST TOWARD ERN INDIANA AND OHIO. ALL PRECIP IS WELL NORTH OF
SFC LOW CENTER STILL BACK NEAR STL. STRONG 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF ND/MN WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE
AREA BY EVENING. HIGH PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND
THURS MORNING.
ONCE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE DOOR OPENS WIDE TO WARM ADVECTION
AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. H8 TEMPS WARM
FROM CURRENT -5C TO +3C BY FRI AFTN. AMPLE INSOLATION ON THURS
SHOULD ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO CLIMB ABV 40 DEG RFD-PNT...THOUGH A LAKE
BREEZE MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO LAND/LAKE TEMP DIFF GREATER THAN
10 DEG...KEEPING TEMPS COOLER BY THE LAKE.
MID/UPR TROPOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH ARRIVING
ON FRI OR SAT LOOK RATHER ANEMIC AND DISORGANIZED. 00Z GFS SUGGESTS
SOME WEAK FROPA ON FRI...BUT FOCUSES MOST QPF WELL TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA. THE 06Z NAM CONCENTRATES THE H3 JET STREAK
AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE OVR NRN IL...BUT DELAYS ARRIVAL TIL SAT.
WILL MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO WITH CHANCE POPS FRI/FRI NT WITH
SOMEWHAT MORE DEFERENCE GIVEN TO THE GFS SOLN.
FAIRLY NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TREMENDOUS WARM
ADVECTION INDICATED BY THE BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS COULD DRAW
+20C H8 AIR INTO KS WITH THE 10 DEG C ISOTHERM INTO OUR AREA.
THUS...TEMPS INTO THE 50S SEEMS QUITE PLAUSIBLE.
RRH
&&
.AVIATION...UPDATE
825 AM CST
LATEST METARS INDICATING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING NEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. RUC LOW LEVEL WIND AND RH PROGS
INDICATE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE PERSISTING WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH BASE OF STRONG INVERSION AROUND 1KM ANY LES TO BE OF
LIGHT INTENSITY.
TRS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS...
650 AM CST
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD WILL BE CLOUDS DURG THE MORNING
HRS. STARTING OUT WITH SOME REMNANT MVFR FROM THE SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT THE LIGHT SNOW TO NRN IL OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING UP PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBS...WILL KEEP THE LOW MVFR DECK FOR A COUPLE MORE HRS. HAVE BEEN
MONITORING THE LOW VFR STRATOCU DECK MOVING SWD OUT OF WISCONSIN AND
OVR LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE STARTED OUT GYY LOWER SINCE THEY HAVE A
DIRECT FETCH OFF THE COLD LAKE WATERS...BUT WILL GO WITH LOW VFR AT
THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES. THE CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO SCT OUT
BY LATE MORNING. WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING OVER THE REGION...EXPECT SKIES TO GO
SKC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN SKC THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL START OUT NLY-ENELY AT ARND
10KT AND TURN MORE NELY THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...NONE.
.IN...NONE.
.LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1038 PM CST TUE MAR 6 2007
.UPDATE...
1005 PM CST
THE RADAR SHOWS SOME SNOW FALL OF UP TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST WINNEBAGO COUNTY AND NORTHERN DEKALB COUNTY AT 0352
UTC. USING THE ACARS SOUNDING WE SEE AN INVERSION AROUND 812 MB.
THIS MAY BE A WEAK FRONTAL INVEERSION. THE RUC80 MODEL SHOWS LARGE
FRONTALGENSIS VALUES OF 30 K/MS OR MORE FROM 800 MB TO 850 MB. THE
CROSS SECTION SHOWS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FROM THE AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION AS WELL. THE SOUNDING AT DVN SHOW A DRIER LAYER BELOW
THE MINUS 6 DEGREE C LEVEL AROUND 700 MB. THERE IS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE BETWEEN MINUS 10 AND MINUS 20 DEGREE C LAYERS. WE EXPECT A
DRY TYPE OF SNOW. THE FORECAST AREA IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A JET
STREAK HENCE THE AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION AND MID LEVEL
FRONTALGENESIS. THE JET STREAK WILL MOVE EAST BY 12 UTC TO REDUCE
ITS EFFECTS AND THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. WE EXPECT THE SNOW TO
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE RAISED THE AMOUNT OF SNOW TO AROUND AN
INCH IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND AROUND
CHICAGO.
&&
.DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON GRIDS/ZONES...
238 PM CST
UPR JET DIVING DOWN NW FLOW THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS IN
CENTRAL MN DIVING INTO WRN WI NOW AND SHUD MOVE INTO NRN IL THIS
EVENING. HAVE UPPED POPS IN FAR NE IL AND NW INDY TNGT TO LIKELY
SINCE TRAJECTORY FROM MN LOOKS ON TARGET THERE. AM OPTING FOR LESS
THAN AN INCH NORTH OF I-90 AND LITTLE OR NONE SOUTH OF THERE. MAY BE
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN CNTYS ARND SRN LK MICH AT DAYBREAK
BUT SHUD BE OUT OF HERE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. OTHER MODELS FAVORING
THE FAST MOVING GFS WHICH APPEARS MORE VIGOROUS THAN THE NAM. BUT
GREATEST ENERGY NORTH OF IL AND WILL FAVOR NON-SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FOR HERE.
HIGH PRESSURE DIVING CLOSE BEHIND AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTN
WEDNESDAY AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CROSSES THE MS VLY. WINDS NOT
BLUSTERY ENUF BEHIND FROPA TO ADVECT STRONG CAA INTO AREA AND SHUD
BE WARMING BACK UP OVERNIGHT WED NGT AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WAA
MAKES A QUICK RETURN. IN FACT...WARMING WELL INTO 40S FOR MAX TEMPS
FRI AND SAT AFTER UPR RIDGE SPREADS EAST OF THE MS VLY...OPENING UP
REGION TO WARMER PLAINS TEMPS.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT OF UPR TROF IN PLAINS
DURING THAT TIME. WHILE GATHERING SOME GULF MSTR UP THE MS VLY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW LVL JET OF YDA NO LONGER APPEARS TO
EXIST IN THE REGION. THIS LIMITING MSTR ADVECTION TO THIS AREA AND
DUMBING DOWN TSTM DYNAMICS. SO WILL LEAVE SMALL CHC POPS FOR RAIN
FRI AND FRI NGT. ANOTHER HIGH MOVES IN BEHIND THE WEAKENING UPR TROF
FOR THE WEEKEND. SHUD BE A DRY AND MILD WEEKEND.
OUT WEST THRU THIS TIME...GOOD UPR RIDGING IN THE ROCKIES ALLOWS WAA
TO INVADE SRN CANADA. WE RETURN TO A NW UPR FLOW REGIME FOR THE
WEEKEND BUT COLD AIR HAS RETREATED WELL INTO CANADA AND IMPACT OF
ANOTHER CLIPPER RIDING DOWN THIS UPR FLOW ON MONDAY HAS LITTLE
COOLING AFFECT BEHIND IT. AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY...GFS IS
PROJECTING H8 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS IN THE DAKOTAS. UPR RIDGING
FOCUSES THIS WAA INTO NRN IL FOR MIDWEEK. WITH SUN ANGLE GETTING
HIGHER...ANY APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE WILL MAKE AN ADDED IMPACT.
VERNAL EQUINOX BY THE WAY WILL AT 707 PM CDT ON MARCH 20TH.
RLB
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...BAND OF MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPED ACROSS THE I-88 CORRIDOR
A FEW HRS AGO...BRIEFLY LOWERING VIS/CIGS TO IFR. THIS HAS LIFTED NE
WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN. BULK OF SNOW IS QUICKLY MOVING
EAST AND EXPECT SEVERAL HRS OF FLURRIES WITH POSSIBLY THE BACK
EDGE OF SNOW SWINGING THRU BEFORE 08Z AND DROPPING CIGS/VIS BACK TO
MVFR BRIEFLY. JUST A MID LEVEL DECK TOWARD DAWN THEN STRATOCU ACROSS
IA/MN WILL SWING THRU DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HRS...LIKELY
DROPPING CIGS TO 2-3KFT BEFORE SCATTERING OUT EARLY WED AFTERNOON
WITH SKC EXPECTED WED EVENING. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT ENE NOW
AND WILL CONTINUE TURNING MORE NNE BY DAWN AND INCREASE TO 10-12KTS.
WINDS STAY NORTH WEDNESDAY AND DIMINISH WITH SUNSET LIKELY BECOMING
LIGHT AND VRB TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...NONE.
.IN...NONE.
.LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
310 AM CST WED MAR 7 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
EARLY THIS MORNING LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER ECNTRL MO. THE LOW
WAS MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM OK THROUGH SRN
IN AND OH. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NERN ND. THE LAST OF
THE -SN THAT BRUSHED THE NERN CWA TUE EVENING WAS OVER NERN IL. CLR
SKIES DOMINATED MOST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING OTHER THAN THE
BACK EDGE OF AN AC DECK EAST OF THE MS RIVER AND STRATUS THAT HAS
ENTERED THE NWRN COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY. THE LOW PRESSURE
OVER ERN MO WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING AS THE NRN PLAINS HIGH MOVES
INTO NCNTRL IA BY 00Z. THE STRATUS JUST ENTERING THE CWA WAS TIED
TO THE LOW LEVEL CAA IN ADVANCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. BASED ON A
TAMDAR SOUNDING OUT OF KMCW AROUND 06Z THE STRATUS IS ONLY ABOUT
1200 FT THICK. USING THE RECENT MOVEMENT...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
ST EXTRAPOLATES TO AN KOTM...KMLI...KSQI AROUND 13Z. BY THIS TIME
THE SUN WILL BE UP AND STRATUS WILL BE MOVING OVER BARE GROUND.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE LEADING EDGE WILL MIX OUT SOME AS THE
LOW LEVELS WARM...KEEPING THE CLOUDS FROM REACHING THE FAR SRN CWA.
ALSO...CLEARING IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY SE THROUGH NRN WI
SHOULD REACH THE NERN CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...SHOULD HELP ERODE
CLOUDS OVER THE NRN CWA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SO AFTER
A CLOUDY MORNING OVER MOST THE CWA...WE SHOULD SOME BREAKING OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS. CLOUD TRENDS WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON TEMPS TODAY. FAVORED THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN THE FAR SOUTH
WHERE SUN IS EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY. A COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
SNOW COVER IN THE NORTH SHOULD LIMIT THE TEMP REBOUND TO 5 TO 10
DEGREES OR IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE CWA. WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD
DROP IN TEMPS WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WENT JUST UNDER THE COLDEST MOS IN MOST AREAS. ...DLF...
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING AS A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. START OF THE PRECIP IS IN QUESTION.
MODELS SHOW LOWERING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THE OVERALL FORCING IS EITHER WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT. MODEL
KINEMATICS SUGGEST PRECIP DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE WAA
WELL...WILL CONTINUE WITH SCHC POPS IN THE FAR WEST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS PUSHED BACK
BY 6-12 HOURS.
AFTER FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A NICE PUSH OF WARM AIR
REACHING THE AREA AS A ZONAL PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE CONTINENT.
NET RESULT IS THAT THE CURRENT BELOW NORMAL WEATHER SHOULD END AND
BE REPLACED WITH INITIALLY NORMAL AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL WEATHER BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY CHANGES DONE IN THE EXTENDED WAS TO START
TRENDING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEK. IF THE
RIGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR...CURRENT MAX TEMPS BY NEXT WEEK MAY BE TOO
COOL. ...08...
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1235 PM EST THU MAR 8 2007
.AVIATION...THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE A BATTLE ZONE BTWN HIGH PRES
EXITING EAST THIS EVENING...AND A CENTRAL PLAINS STORM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE WRN LAKES FRIDAY MORNING/AFTN. A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE LOCATED OVR THE STRAITS AND NE LWR INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL GENERATE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER EXTREME
NRN LWR INTO THIS EVENING. THE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NXT STORM SYSTEM MARCHING ACRS THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECT SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO MIX
WITH THE LIGHT SNOW OVER PLN AND APN TONIGHT AND FRI...AS WARMER AIR
ENCOUNTERS THE STRAITS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER VFR TO MVFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONT OVR NRN LWR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTN.
SWR
&&
.UPDATE...ISSUED 1026 AM...BACKDOOR ARCTIC FRONT...CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM WHITEFISH POINT SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...CONTINUES TO EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
RESPONSE TO SHEARED DPVA LOBE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
COMBINATION OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...ALONG
WITH SOME WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...RESULTING IN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY...PER MONTREAL RIVER CANADA AND
KMQT RADARS. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY OVER THE NORTHERN LOWER...WITH
SOLID SHEET OF 5-6KFT OVERCAST COVERING ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF...WITH NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKIES SOUTHWEST OF A LINE EXTENDING
FROM THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA TO STANDISH. FORECAST
CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY CENTER ON LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES WITH APPROACH OF ARCTIC FRONT.
RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS/12 NAM-WRF GUIDANCE SHOW ARCTIC FRONT
CONTINUING TO SLOW ITS SOUTHWEST DRIFT. STILL EXPECTING IT
TO EVENTUALLY BRUSH NORTHEAST LOWER LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE
DECAYING IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS FROM MONTREAL
RIVER STILL SHOWS DISTINCT NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT (ALBEIT LIGHT)
AFFECTING NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE WINDS VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER WORDING FOR THIS AREA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE NORTHERN LOWER...WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...COMBINED WITH ANEMIC LAKE EFFECT
PARAMETERS (RECENT ACARS SOUNDING OUT OF ALPENA SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 3.7KFT) SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE
THAN SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES. EXPECT THESE FLURRIES TO SPREAD UP
INTO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLOUD SHIELD HALTING ITS SOUTHEAST ADVANCE. TEMPERATURES/WINDS
APPEAR ON TARGET WITH NO CHANGES WARRANTED.
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES/NEARSHORES OUT SHORTLY.
MSB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 408 AM EST THU MAR 8 2007
SFC/RUC/SATELLITE/RADAR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NE CONUS WHILE RIDGING
WAS SEEN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SHORTWAVE WORKING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WITH THE FORCING FROM
THIS FEATURE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND. SFC BACKDOOR...AND
NEARLY STATIONARY...ARCTIC FRONT WAS POSITIONED JUST NORTHEAST OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...THE SAULT AND LAKE ERIE WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. IN NRN MI...-12 TO -14C H8 AIR AND
15KT WNW FLOW WAS RESULTING IN A SWATH OF 2500FT STRATO CU AND
FLURRIES. LOOKING UPSTREAM...WARM FRONT NOTED ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN ALBERTA CANADA. CEILINGS
BETWEEN 4-10KFT WERE TRYING TO PUSH SE TOWARD NRN MICHIGAN...WHILE A
CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS UNDER 2KFT WERE SNEAKING
EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA AND FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN.
FORECAST CONCERNS...CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME TYPE CONCERNS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO...
TEMPERATURES ARE A FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AS MODERATING/WARMING AIR
MASS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TODAY...SHORTWAVE DIGS SSE THROUGH NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY WITH
SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINING EAST OF NRN MICHIGAN. THE PASSAGE OF
THIS TROUGH DOES ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO VEER MORE NORTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT
WESTWARD PUSH TO THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY POISED JUST TO OUR NE. THIS
FRONTAL ZONE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO MAKE IT INTO CHIPPEWA
COUNTY...ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
THROUGH MID MORNING OR SO...BUT NOT ENTIRELY SOLD ON THIS IDEA. AT
THE SAME TIME...4-10KFT MOISTURE SEEN WORKING IT`S WAY TOWARD
CHIPPEWA COUNTY...WELL NORTH OF WARM FRONT TO OUR WEST...WILL TRY
AND PHASE IN WITH THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL
BE OCCURRING IN AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE LES REGIME WHICH WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS TO 3-3.5KFT AND
WARMING H8 TEMPS FROM -8C (GTV BAY) TO -14C (SSM/APN) AT 12Z...TO
-6C (GTV BAY) AND -14C SSM/APN) BY 00Z (VERY SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF
THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE). 1000-850MB W/WNW WINDS OF 15KTS
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING WEAKEN INTO MIDDAY...THEN BECOME SE AT
10KTS BY 00Z...WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES TO >80% IN BOTH THE H9-H7
AND H8-H5 LAYERS. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THIS MORNING (THROUGH 15Z) ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY...WHERE
COOLEST H8 AIR AND SUFFICIENT STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN
RESULT IN INLAND TRANSPORT OF HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX FROM OFF THE
BAY. JUST A CHANCE FOR FLURRIES IN NRN LOWER DUE TO CONTINUED
WARMING OF THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. AS WINDS TURN SE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... TEMPS WILL ONLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SNEAKING INTO
EASTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES (MOST LIKELY DRUMMOND ISLAND)...PER
ONGOING FORECAST. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE NE WITH LOW-MID
20S WHILE LOWER 30S SEEN NEAR GTV BAY.
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY A CHANCE OF FLURRIES HANGING ON NEAR DRUMMOND
ISLAND EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WARM FURTHER. H8 TEMPS RISE TO 0C (GTV BAY) TO
-4C (SSM) BY DAYBREAK AS WARM FRONT TRACKS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM IN OVER
NRN MICHIGAN...WHILE AFOREMENTIONED SUB 2.5KFT CEILINGS FROM OUT
OVER MN/FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN SHOULD BE MAKING THEIR WAY UP INTO
EASTERN UPPER/FAR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. ISENTROPIC ASCENT LEADS TO
CDP`S BELOW 20MB ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NW LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THIS LIFT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...OR WHETHER THE
INFLUX OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE.
WITH THE ENTIRE SOUNDING COLDER THAN 0C...AND THE TOP OF THE
MOISTURE DANGLING AROUND -10C...WILL JUST GO WITH A 30% CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
FRIDAY...SAME QUESTIONS CONCERNING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE HOLD
FRIDAY MORNING...SO WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE. SHALLOW SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH THE SFC COOL FRONT FOR BETTER LIFT...WHICH WOULD MORE LIKELY
LEAD TO A NON-DRIZZLE PRECIP TYPE. AIR MASS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
STILL APPEARS TO REMAIN ENTIRELY COLDER THAN 0C...SO WILL GO WITH
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER...SFC TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING AS WELL AS A POTENTIAL WARM NOSE ALOFT EXTENDING THROUGH
850-800MB...LEADS TO MORE OF A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN...BUT WITH
SOME EVAP COOLING POTENTIAL...WILL GO WITH THE RAIN AND SNOW THAT
HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
EASTERN UPPER WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT...MAYBE A FEW TENTHS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...IF ONE WERE TO BUY OFF ON THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...THERE WOULD BE NO PRECIP AS PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY
AIR COMES IN...ALONG WITH INVERSIONS DOWN TO 850-900MB. WITH A
SECONDARY...AND ACCORDING TO THE MODELS...A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES. CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIP ATTM...ESPECIALLY WHEN THROWING IN
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING OF THE COOL FRONT ITSELF. MORE MILD LOWS
WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 20S.
SATURDAY ONWARD...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND AND PLENTY OF SUN EXPECTED. 925-850MB
TEMPS DANCING AROUND 32F...AND WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE ABLE TO EASILY TAP INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 30S.
INCREASED MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND 40F OR
EVEN THE LOWER 40S. THE DECENT MELTING THAT WE GET OVER THE
WEEKEND...WOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
NO OTHER CHANGES. SMD
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
147 PM CST THU MAR 8 2007
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM CONCERN TONIGHT IS RETURN OF FOG ALONG WITH FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN POSSIBILITIES. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS 1000MB LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE AREA SHOW THAT
DESPITE THE SUN ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL PRIMED FOR RESATURATION. STRONG
INVERSION ALSO NOTED ON THE OBSERVATION AND MODEL PROGGED SOUNDINGS
SO THIS SHOULD FAVOR STRATUS WHICH IS WHAT BUFKIT HYDROLAPSE RATES
INDICATE. HAZE STILL LINGERING AROUND WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS ON THE
CLIMB IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. TOGETHER THIS SHOULD FAVOR
FOG TO ALSO RETURN. THIS COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE NEAR DAWN.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE AREA IN EARNEST TONIGHT...HOWEVER
MOIST LAYER IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...GENERALLY CONFIDED TO BELOW 900MB
AND THE STRATUS DECK. STRONG FLOW JUST ABOVE THIS CLOUD LAYER
TONIGHT WILL FAVOR SOME VERTICAL MOTIONS AIDING IN POSSIBLY SPITTING
OUT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. BEST POSSIBILITY IS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY STEADY TONIGHT.
ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND OMEGA TO JUSTIFY A SMALL POP IN THE
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN CWA SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZING RAIN
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO. SHOULD BE ENOUGH SINKING BEHIND WAVE
TO PROVIDE CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING AND MELTING DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WILL INCLUDE
MENTION OF FOG OVER AT LEAST WESTERN HALF OF CWA...AS SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. NEXT WAVE
HEADING INTO PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY STILL A LITTLE
PROBLEMATIC...BUT GFS ENSEMBLE POPS FAIRLY LOW AND QG FORCING
MAINLY SOUTH OF IN STRONGER PART OF SPLIT. WILL CUT BACK ON EXTENT
OF PRECIP. WARMUP STILL LOOKS INTACT WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL
MIXING ON SOUTHWEST WINDS MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY. 850 TEMPS
ANOMALIES STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
FAST THE SNOW COVER GETS EATEN AWAY JUST TO OUR SW. CURRENT TEMPS
IN THE MID 60S CENTRAL NEB/SD INDICATIVE OF THE WARMING PATTERN/POTENTIAL
COMING UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEEMS LIKE LOW 50S A GOOD BET AS A
START. BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH MID WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE A PRECIP PRODUCER
CLOSE BY WITH MID LEVEL OVERRUNNING TO THE NORTH OF BOUNDARY.
STILL MILD TO START WITH MAINLY SHALLOW COLD AIR...SO A FREEZING
PRECIP POSSIBILITY STILL THERE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
MDB/JPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1206 PM CST THU MAR 8 2007
.UPDATE...FOR FORECAST AND 18Z TAF CYCLE BELOW
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLIMB ACROSS THE AREA AS STRATUS
AND FOG DOMINATED THE MORNING. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW IN
THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER HAS ERODED CLOUDS FROM IA UP TOWARDS THE
TWIN CITIES. THIS HAS OFFERED TEMPERATURES A CHANCE TO
CLIMB...ALTHOUGH DEEP SNOW PACK HAS HINDERED A RAPID RAISE. DO
EXPECTED SOME MID TO UPPER 30S THOUGH IN THIS CLOUD FREE AREA
WHICH WILL LIKELY EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI
BY MID AFTERNOON. NO MODELS DEPICT THIS BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN
TOWARDS THIS AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE PROFILERS AND TAMDAR
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY STRONG. LATEST TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE
AREA ALSO REFLECT VERY SIMILAR PROFILES TO THE 12Z MPX RAOB...JUST
SLIGHTLY DRIER. STILL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF LESS THAN 5C BELOW
850MB OFFER THE VERY LIKELIHOOD THAT FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD RETURN
TONIGHT AS GRADIENT SLACKENS ONCE AGAIN. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AND ADIABATIC OMEGA ON THE NAM AND GFS MODELS DURING THE LATE
EVENING ONWARDS OFFER A CHANCE FOR PREDOMINATELY FREEZING DRIZZLE
TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR STEADY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES AND CLOUDS REFILL IN OVER OPEN AREAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CST THU MAR 8 2007/
DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE MN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 20S.
FOG MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CWA WITH DENSE FOG JUST WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FA. SOME CLEARING SHOWING UP ALONG AND WEST
OF A KETH TO KMML LINE. THIS IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. WILL HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUDS OVER WESTERN MN TODAY. IN FACT...THAT IS
THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AND THAT IS THE
EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS. NOT ONLY IS THERE DRYING TO
THE WEST OF US...CLEARING HAS BEEN SPREADING NORTH INTO CENTRAL IA
DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL STAY WITH A CLOUDY OR MOSTLY
CLOUDY THEME INTO FRIDAY. BELIEVE THE WARMER AIR AND RISING DEW
POINTS RIDING OVER THE SNOW PACK WILL AID IN KEEPING EXTENSIVE LOW
CLOUDINESS. ADDED FOG IN FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. SURFACE
TROF TO PASS ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY. NOT MUCH SATURATION SEEN
ABOVE 850 MB. LAST TWO SREF RUNS SHOWING SMALL CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. THEREFORE...KEPT THE 20 TO
30 POPS IN PLAY. DECREASING CLOUDINESS SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MN CWA ON FRIDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED ALL AREAS ON
SATURDAY. STILL BELIEVE IN HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SATURDAY. TOUGH TO
GO MUCH HIGHER WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE EITHER SIDE OF 0 DEG C. GFS/NAM SHOWING A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE PASSING SOUTH OF US ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS THE
STRONGEST. SREF SHOWING CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA. ADDED SOME SMALL POPS FOR FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING. FEEL BEST AREA WOULD OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MN. A VERY MILD WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF CYCLE
PUNCH OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR RIDING IN ON 40 TO 50KT FLOW HAS
SCOURED STRATUS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN UPWARDS TOWARDS MSP. THIS
SHOULD ERODE DECK OVER MSP AND SATELLITE AIRPORTS BY 19 TO 20Z.
VISBYS WILL BE MORE SLUGGISH TO IMPROVE...ALTHOUGH SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ARE INCREASING. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM
NORTHERN IA AND FAR SOUTHERN MN INDICATE THAT DESPITE THE NOW
CLEAR SKIES THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL PRIME FOR SATURATION WITH
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS OF LESS THAN 5C.
SO DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO RETURN TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
UPPER PLAINS MOVES INTO THE AREA AND RESLACKENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. IF TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...FOG AND STRATUS MAY FILL BACK IN OVER SNOWPACK QUICKER
THAN THIS...WHICH IS A POSSIBILITY. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE
TEMPS AT 3 TO 5KFT UP TO 6C ABOVE MSP. SO AS CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT
AIDED BY SOME MIXING THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.
BEST CHANCES ARE MSP AND WI TAF SITES WHERE THERE IS HELP OF
SATURATED UPGLIDE THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER. PREDOMINANT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTOR SHOULD BE FOG HOWEVER. DENSE FOG WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT TO REFORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. AS TROUGH PASSES
SITES FROM DAWN TO MID MORNING TOMORROW INCREASING WEST WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
RAH/MTF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
902 PM MST THU MAR 8 2007
.UPDATE...REMOVED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT BECAUSE THE SHORT WAVE
TRIGGERING THE SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THEN.
ALSO DECREASED SKYCOVER TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
300 PM MST THU MAR 8 2007...21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1006MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER SE CO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO
EASTERN NM. LATEST 400-250MB AIRCRAFT WIND DATA SHOWS A 40-60 KNOT
JET DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
NM. RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS POPCORN VARIETY RAIN SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO STEEPENING LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH UPPER TROUGH AXIS. 18Z NAM AND 12Z GFS
INDICATE A POCKET OF 7-8C/KM LAPSE RATES AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND
-1C WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE SURFACE HEATING.
SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE 500MB PATTERN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10F
ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS.
MAJOR CHANGES WERE PRESENTED TODAY FROM THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION WITH
REGARDS TO THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SATURDAY. 12Z UKMET AND NAM SOLUTIONS DO SHOW THIS TREND...ALTHOUGH
WITH A MUCH WEAKER STORM SYSTEM...SO DECIDED TO RAISE POPS JUST
BELOW CHANCE IN THE NORTHERN MNTNS AND FAR NE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. EXPECTING A FEW
SHOWERS WITH MAINLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE SAT
INTO SUNDAY. BEYOND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE NOW WITH
REGARDS TO THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE 500MB LOW. SOLUTIONS
RANGE ANYWHERE FROM RETROGRADING THE UPPER LOW INTO EASTERN NM
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS...TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
FLOW...ECMWF. LEFT EXTENDED TEMPS AND POPS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
SINCE UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT NEXT
00Z/12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS LOOK LIKE.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MST THU MAR 8 2007
.DISCUSSION...
21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1006MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SE CO
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO EASTERN NM. LATEST 400-250MB
AIRCRAFT WIND DATA SHOWS A 40-60 KNOT JET DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN NM. RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWS POPCORN VARIETY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN RESPONSE TO STEEPENING LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. 18Z NAM AND 12Z GFS INDICATE A POCKET OF 7-8C/KM LAPSE
RATES AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -1C WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH THE EVENING.
EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE SURFACE
HEATING.
SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE 500MB PATTERN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10F
ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS.
MAJOR CHANGES WERE PRESENTED TODAY FROM THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION WITH
REGARDS TO THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY.
12Z UKMET AND NAM SOLUTIONS DO SHOW THIS TREND...ALTHOUGH WITH A MUCH
WEAKER STORM SYSTEM...SO DECIDED TO RAISE POPS JUST BELOW CHANCE IN
THE NORTHERN MNTNS AND FAR NE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS WITH MAINLY
COOLER TEMPS FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. BEYOND
SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE NOW WITH REGARDS TO THE
LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE 500MB LOW. SOLUTIONS RANGE ANYWHERE
FROM RETROGRADING THE UPPER LOW INTO EASTERN NM THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...GFS...TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW...ECMWF. LEFT EXTENDED
TEMPS AND POPS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED SINCE UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.
WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT NEXT 00Z/12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS LOOK
LIKE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 33 64 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 26 65 27 67 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 25 65 28 67 / 10 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 41 74 44 76 / 5 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 13 52 19 56 / 10 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 25 60 28 62 / 10 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 17 50 17 54 / 10 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 20 58 25 61 / 10 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 27 62 30 64 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 30 64 33 66 / 10 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 32 66 35 68 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 39 69 41 71 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 35 72 38 74 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 36 67 38 70 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 37 69 40 72 / 10 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 41 73 43 76 / 10 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 31 61 33 64 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 31 64 36 67 / 5 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 37 71 40 73 / 10 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 38 64 37 65 / 10 0 0 0
RATON........................... 26 62 28 64 / 5 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 29 62 31 65 / 5 0 0 0
ROY............................. 36 63 36 68 / 10 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 36 63 37 68 / 10 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 40 70 40 74 / 10 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 39 70 40 73 / 10 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 39 72 41 75 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 40 69 41 73 / 10 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 40 71 40 75 / 10 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 43 75 43 77 / 5 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
GUYER
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