FXUS61 KPBZ 090123
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
923 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 2004

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WITH CONDITIONS NOW STABILIZED, DROPPED MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS. 
EXPECT A SURFACE INVERSION MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN 
THE UPPER 50S, WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO THE CROSSOVER VALUE USED BY 
THE UPS FOG FORECASTING TOOL. ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG MAY DEVELOP 
NEAR THE RIVERS, BUT DID NOT FEEL THERE WOULD BE COVERAGE OF LOW 
VISIBILITY TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. 

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 525 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 2004

SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING PER 
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND 
MODERATE CUMULUS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. PER LATEST RUC MODEL 
EXPECT CURRENT INSTABILITY TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.  

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 2004

AVIATION...
MID AND HI CLOUDS THAT MOVED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OH WILL EXIT ACROSS 
NRN WV THIS AFTN. AREA TO NORTH THAT WAS GENERALLY CLEAR FILLING IN 
WITH SCT-BKN CU THIS AFTN. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH SCT-BKN050 THIS 
AFTN WITH CU DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET. BUFKIT AND MOS BOTH SUGGEST 
SOME FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING. WILL GO TEMPO 4-5SM BR AROUND SUNRISE 
WITH MID LEVEL CLDS. CU REDEVELOPS LATE MON MORNING.

SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUE NIGHT)...
LOOKING AT THE BROAD CIRCULATION, GFS AND ETA MODELS ARE SIMILAR. 
BUT THE LTL H5 LOW OR S/W OVER N DAK 18Z TDA WEAKENS AND OPENS INTO 
A WEAK TROF. BY 06Z TUE, ETA KEEPS A CLOSED CENTER, WHICH DISAPPEARS 
6 HRS LATER. STRENGTHS AND TIMING ARE SIMILAR IN BOTH MODELS. NOW 
ITS JUST A QUESTION OF CHC OR LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF FRONTS OVER THE 
NEXT WEEK. SFC LOWS ARE WITHIN 2 MB OF EA OTHER. BOTH MODELS HAVE 
ONE SFC FRONT PASSING PIT 18Z TUE W/ SECONDARY TROF 15-18Z WED. 

LONG TERM (WED THROUGH SUN)...
GFS IS STRONGER WITH A SFC LO, DEVELOPING IT IN INDIANA EARLY WED. 
ETA DOES NOT DO THIS. AND ON WED, GFS HAS SOME KIND OF FEEDBACK 
PROBLEM WITH HUGE AMOUNT OF PCPN IN INDI-OHIO, NR WHERE THE ALLEGED 
SFC LO DEVELOPS. ETA HAS NO SUCH ANIMAL.

ETA HAS COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE EVENING, AND 
SHOWERS WOULD DIMINISH. BUT GFS HAS SFC LO AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE 
FEEDBACK MOVING FROM INDIANA TO PA BY WED NIGHT. CONSISTENT WITH 
NEIGHBORS, I KEPT POPS 30-40% WED NIGHT AND LONG RANGE GFS HAS H5 
TROF W OF CWA THU MRNG. POPS GO TO 50-60% THU AND FRI, THEN DECREASE 
AS TROF FINALLY GETS E OF ME 00Z SAT 14TH. THEN DRY WEATHER ARRIVES. 
&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...11