Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT" or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 10/04/03

.OVERVIEW...DRY STRETCH OF WX AHEAD WITH BELWO TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP...LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT CAN BE TAPPED BY ANY LOW PRES SYSTEM/FRONT THAT IMPACTS THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM...COMBINATION OF VORT MOVING ACRS SRN TN INTO NC TONIGHT...AND APPRCH OF COLD FROTN FROM W WILL CAUSE GRAD INCR IN CLDS TON...THIS CPLD W/ SRLY RTN FLW WILL HAVE LOWS TON 7-12 DEG WRMR THAN LAST NIGHT (W/ SOME LCTNS EVEN WARMER). COLD FRNT CROSSES CWA SAT AFT AND EVE...W/ BEST DYNAMICS PASSING WELL TO N OF CWA... AGREE W/ ETA AND GFS AND HAVING A DRY FRNTL PASSAGE...AS IS TYPICAL OF MOISTURE STARVED SYS CROSSING THE APPLCHNS...ALL THE PRECIP FALLS IN THE MNTNS TO FOOTHILLS...AS WSW DWNSLP FLOW HELPS KEEP LWR LVLS DRY. IT STILL WILL END UP BEING A MCLDY DAY BY AFT FOR THE NW 1/2 OF CWA THOUGH...AND THAT WILL KEEP THAT PORTION OF CWA IN M-U 60S...IN SE 1/3 WHERE WILL BE PT CLDY...HIGHS IN THE L-M 70S...W 850 TMPS FRM 7-9C. SKY CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPRV SAT NIGHT HWVR COLD ADVCTN USUALLY LAGS 6-12 HRS AFTR FRNTL PASSAGE SO LOWS U40S- M50S. COLD AIR GRAD BLDS IN SUN-MON...W/ SOME AFT STRATOCU LKLY AS A RESULT OF COLD POOL MVNG IN ALFT AND VORTS ROTATING ARND BASE OF TROF. 850 TMPS STEADILY FALL SUN THROUGH MON...SO DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE COOLEST ON MON. WINDS ARE STILL GOING TO RUNNING ABT 10-15 MPH SUN NGT SO MINS WILL BE HELD UP INTO THE 40S...CLD BE LWR IF DECPLNG OCCURS...BUT THAT ISN'T EXPCTD AT THIS TIME...HIGH IS TO FAR TO THE W AND L-M LVL TRF AXIS IS STILL TO THE WEST. THE SPURIOUS LOW THE ETA MOVES FRM THE MIDWEST INTO NRN VA SUN NGT AND MON IS NOT SHOWN IN OTHER MODELS AND HAS BEEN DISREGARDED...ALSO THE SRC FOR THE LOW IS NOT READILY APPRNT FROM OTHER ETA FIELDS. HIGH BUILDS IN ENGH BY MON NGT THAT WINDS SHLD DIMINISH...AND W/ CLR SKIES MOST INLND LCTNS SHLD BE IN THE U30S-L40S...MAYBE A TAD COOLER DEPENDING UPON HOW STRONG OF A SUBSIDENCE INVRSN SETS UP.

.EXTENDED...FOLLOWED GFS AS IT HAS GOOD CONTINUITY W/ PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT W/ ECMWF...CANDAIAN...AND NOGAPS. HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OVR SRN NEW ENG ADN MID ATLC STATES TUE AND WED...THEN SLWLY SLIDES OFFSHR THU...ALLWNG FOR SLWLY MODERATING TEMPS. A COLD FRONT APPRCHS FROM THE PLAINS LATE FRI...BUT SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING SO LEFT FRI NIGHT DRY FOR NOW...THOUGH W/ ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP...WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF FRONT ACTUALLY ENDED UP CROSSING THE AREA FRI.

.MARINE...THINGS HAVE SETTLED DOWN NOW THAT THE SURGE IS PAST...AND WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL WINDS PICKUP ARND COLD FRONT SAT AFT INTO SUN...AS A RESULT HEADLINING SCA CNDTNS XPCTD SAT NIGHT AND SUN FOR THE CSTL WATERS. MIGHT NEED ALSO FOR THE BAY AND SND IF SURGE IS A STRONG BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AS THE ONE THAT JUST PASSED...BUT FOR NOW ARE KEEPING WINDS ON BAY AND SND JUST BLW SCA CRITERIA FOR SAT NIGTH AND SUN.

.AVIATION...VFR FLYING...AS CLDS W/ FRONT SHLD BE A MID DECK...HWVR SHLD HAVE SOME DECENT TRBLNC IN VCNTY OF FRONT SAT AFT AND NIGHT... AND THEN LIGHTER AIRCRAFT WILL AHVE TO DEAL W/ GUSTY WINDS BEHIND FRONT ON SUN.

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS... SBY 44 67 49 64 / 00 10 10 10 OXB 50 68 53 65 / 00 10 10 10 WAL 51 69 55 66 / 00 10 10 10 FVX 41 71 48 66 / 00 10 10 10 RIC 44 69 50 67 / 00 10 10 10 PTB 43 73 50 67 / 00 10 10 10 AKQ 43 74 49 68 / 00 10 10 10 PHF 47 73 51 67 / 00 10 10 10 ORF 52 73 56 68 / 00 10 10 10 ECG 49 75 53 70 / 00 10 10 10

.AKQ... .MD...NONE. .VA...NONE. .NC...NONE.

$$

MALOIT



.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG...AND MID AFTERNOON CLEARING INLAND. A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION AT TIMES TO THE AREA FROM LATER MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. &&

.DISCUSSION...REX BLOCK AT 110-115W SLOWLY WKNG AND DRIFTING E. A WEAK NEG TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...REMNANT OF AN OLD FRONTAL SYS...EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST NW THRU THE WA OFFSHORE WATERS. ZONAL FLOW AND A SERIES OF RATHER POTENT SYSTEMS SEEN IN THE PACIFIC FROM 145W WWD. LEAD SYSTEMS ARE WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH THE W COAST BLOCK.

.SHORT TERM...MAIN PROBLEM IS THE STRONG LOW LVL INVERSION. ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF SEATAC APT SHOWING MID/UPPER 50S NEAR THE SURFACE AND MID 70S AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION AT 2600 FT. AIREPS REPORTING TOP OF HAZE LAYER AT 2600 FT. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMGRY AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING FOG DVLPG RAPIDLY AND SPRDG INLAND ACROSS THE N INTR. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPING ACRS THE ENTIRE INTERIOR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE SW...PRES GRADIENTS ARE BECOMING MORE ONSHORE AND MID/UPPER CLOUDS ARE SPREADING NE. SO...EXPECT WDSPRD LOW IFR CONDITIONS ALL OF W WA TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. WHILE VISIBILITIES MAY IMPROVE SOMEWHAT SAT MRNG...AM CONCERNED THAT MID/HI CLOUDS AND ONSHR GRADIENTS MAY KEEP THE STRATUS LOW AND THICK MUCH OF SAT. AT THIS POINT I UPDATED THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS TO MAKE BREAKOUT LATER ON SAT...AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS 6-9 DEG...IN LINE WITH TODAYS MAX TEMPS. LOWERED MAX TEMPS ON SUN AS WELL...BUT IF ONSHR PRES GRADIENTS INCR A BIT AS DEPICTED BY THE NEW 00Z ETA...AN ALL DAY STRATUS WITH COOLER MAX TEMPS YET MAY VERIFY.

MARINE OBS...PARTICULARLY IN THE N INTR AND ALG THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES BLO 1/2 MILE. WILL INDICATE VISBYS LESS THAN 1 MILE IN MARINE FCSTS AS A RESULT.

.EXTENDED...LEAD FRONT LATER MON WKNG AS IT ENCOUNTERS W COAST SPLIT...STILL THERE WILL BE PCPN LATER MON AND BREEZY CONDS ON THE COAST. LATER SYSTEMS MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE QUITE A BIT STRONGER. CURRENT FORECASTS DEPICTING CHANCE POPS DAYS 6-7 IN THE INTR MAY BE OPTIMISTIC GIVEN STRENGTH AND OF FRONTS AND POST FRONTAL ONSHR FLOW...BUT WILL AWAIT NEW LONG RANGE GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING CHANGES. &&

ALBRECHT

.SEW...NONE.

.KATX...VCP31/CSR32...OPERATIONAL. &&

$$



.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG...WITH MID AFTERNOON CLEARING. A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION AT TIMES TO THE AREA FROM LATER MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN WA PER ACARS SOUNDINGS. EXCEPT FOR A STRIP DOWN PUGET SOUND AND THE ENTIRE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...STRATUS HAS CLEARED OUT THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO A COMBINATION OF SOLAR HEATING...EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KT ACROSS THE TOP OF THE STRATUS DECK MIXING DRIER AIR ALOFT DOWN INTO THE MOIST LAYER...AND LACK OF ONSHORE FLOW (UNLIKE YESTERDAY). DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SO STRATUS AND FOG WILL RETURN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOWING OVER WESTERN OREGON ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. 18Z GFS BACKS OFF A LITTLE ON BRINGING SOME OF THESE CLOUDS UP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL BRING SOME MID/HI CLOUDS IN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT NEAR 130W SLIDES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LIKELY COMPLICATE THE FOG/STRATUS FORMATION AND BREAKUP CYCLE...BUT WILL STICK PERSISTANCE AND THE DIURNAL TREND FOR NOW.

EXTENDED...BIG RIDGE OVER THE THE AREA SHIFTS EAST OVER THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY...OPENING THE DOOR TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC AND INTO WASHINGTON. 1ST SYSTEM THROUGH THE CRACK ON SUNDAY IS THE WEAK FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE. THE FAUCET CRANKS OPEN MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES. 18Z GFS IS SHOWING SOME WOBBLE IN SPEEDING UP THE TIMING FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS FINE SINCE IT FITS WITH CURRENT FORECASTS. 12Z RUN WAS A LITTLE SLOWER. THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRETTY POTENT...BUT AS EXPECTED THE GFS HAS VARIED THE TRACK AND STRENGTH. NO CHANGES FOR NOW TO THE WET FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK. KAM

.SEW...NONE.

.KATX...VCP31/CSR32...OPERATIONAL.

$$



.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG...WITH MID AFTERNOON CLEARING. A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION AT TIMES TO THE AREA FROM LATER MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION CONTINUES OVER WESTERN WA THIS MORNING. ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW A 20 DEGREE SWING FROM THE BASE OF THE INVERSION (49F) TO THE TOP OF THE INVERSION (69F) AT 3500 FEET. PIREPS SHOW NO CHANGE WITH STRATUS TOPS 2000-2200 FEET. PROFILER AND ACARS SHOW A LITTLE MORE EAST WIND UP TOWARD THE TOP OF THE INVERSION THIS MORNING...AND ONSHORE FLOW HAS WEAKENED. HOWEVER IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE QUITE A LOT OF MIXING TO ERODE ALL THE SLUDGE PILED UP OVER THE INTERIOR. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS TO BACK AWAY FROM PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WORD AS A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SUN BREAKS.

12Z GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE GRADIENT SHIFTING TO WEAK SOUTHERLY THROUGH PUGET SOUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MAY WEAKEN THE INVERSION A LITTLE PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CLEARING. HOWEVER THE CLOUD BANDS FROM THE DECAYING FRONT OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL MOVE UP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY...POSSIBLY COUNTERACTING THE CHANGE TO WEAK SOUTH FLOW.

EXPECT STRATUS TO SCOUR FOR SURE BY MONDAY EVENING AS SOUTH FLOW RATCHETS UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THIS FINALLY OPENS THE DOOR TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC AND A WHOLE STRING OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS. ZONES LOOK FINE WITH RAIN LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT. KAM

.SEW...NONE.

.KATX...VCP31/CSR32...OPERATIONAL.

$$



.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL EXTEND INLAND TO NEAR THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES LATE EACH NIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BASE OF THE MARINE INVERSION 3500-4000 FEET WITH THE TOP 5000-5500 FEET. WK CSTL EDDY CONTINUES. STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY FILL IN OVERNIGHT FM THE COAST INLAND TO THE LWR COASTAL SLOPES. NO UPDATES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER NEVADA YESTERDAY IS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER SRN CA. ALL AS EXPECTED. SATELLITE SHOWS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION...BUT THE COAST SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION IS MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. THIS WAS NOT EXPECTED. BASICALLY...WE LOST THE STRONG EDDY CIRCULATION THAT GAVE US THE CLOUDS MOST OF YESTERDAY. IN FACT... YESTERDAY EVENING YOU COULD SEE THE EDDY ON THE SATELLITE DATA SLIPPING TO THE SOUTH AS THE SKIES CLEARED. ANOTHER EDDY IS TRYING TO SPIN UP...BUT IT IS VERY WEAK. LATEST ACARS DATA OUT OF LAX SHOWS A GOOD MARINE INVERSION STILL HOLDING AT 2500 TO 3000 FT. AND SATELLITE DATA DOES SHOW SOME NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL. SO LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AND ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES. HOWEVER...IF THEY DON'T FILL IN SOON... YOU WILL PROBABLY SEE AN UPDATE BEFORE SUNRISE REDUCING THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE COASTS. AS FOR THE FOG THIS MORNING...MANY STATIONS ARE REPORTING RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG SO THAT WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH PERHAPS A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE COASTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION.

IN 24 HOURS...THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS A PRECURSOR TO A LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING DOWN JUST OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOOK FOR A STRONGER EDDY TO BUILD TONIGHT WITH MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAKING IT FURTHER INLAND ON SUNDAY MORNING AND LINGERING LONGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY GIVING MOST PEOPLE A SUNNY DAY. EDDY IS BACK MONDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE BASICALLY A REPEAT OF SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING INLAND DUE TO THE UPPER LOW PASSING FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED RANGE PATTERN HAS CHANGED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. YESTERDAY MORNING...MODEL DIVERGENCE RESULTED IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SPECIFICALLY...AT THAT TIME THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE TROUGH...THE ONE THAT MOVES DOWN THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...AT THAT TIME I MENTIONED THAT THE NEW AVN SOLUTION FAVORED A DEEPENING OF THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY...LEAVING THE LOCAL REGION UNDER A TROUGH ALOFT INSTEAD OF RIDGING. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS THAT THE ECMWF MODEL HAS CHANGED ITS MIND AND IS AGREEING WITH THE AVN SOLUTION THAT DEEPENS THE TROUGH NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY. FULLY EXPECT THAT THE NEW GFS WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND. THUS...NOW LOOK FOR THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE JUST WEST OF SRN CA ON TUESDAY. SLIGHT POSSIBLITY THAT THIS WILL TAP SOME MOISTURE AND BRING IT NORTHWARD OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY... HOWEVER... WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED PERIOD DRY FOR OUR AREA. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...WHILE THE PATTERN HAS CHANGED...THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED THAT MUCH. IF THE PRESENT AVN TRACK IS CORRECT...ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES TO THE WEST OF US ON TUESDAY...WE WILL SEE RIDGING OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ANYWAY. SO THE MAIN IMPACT IS TO DELAY WARMING BY A DAY...STARTING THE WARMING TREND ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

DANIELSON





MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A WELL DEFINED COLD POCKET DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO. LOTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH EVEN DEVELOPED SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN GAGE OK. MDCRS PLOTS SHOWING A NICE JET STREAK AT THE BASE OF THIS COLD POCKET WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE UPPER AIR PLOTS. THIS COLD POCKET IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SEEM TO BE UNDERDOING THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ALBEIT THIS MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW. NEVERTHELESS, LATEST ETA RUN SHOWS A VERY STRONG COLD POCKET PUSHING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PROVIDE RISING THETA SURFACES AND WITH ADEQUATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WE COULD SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE INTRODUCED POPS TO REFLECT THIS, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE RW- NOT TO FAR AWAY. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO TRIMMED BACK IN THE WEST DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER.

COX ---------------------------------------------------------------------

440 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2003

DRIER AIR IS PUSHING FOG OUT OF CWA SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, SO WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR PATCHY AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. VISIBILITIES FOR MOST AREAS WON'T DROP LOWER THAN 2-3 MILES, HOWEVER, ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY DROP TO 1/4 OR LESS. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN, DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

KLEINSASSER

--------------------------------------------------------------------- PREVIOUS DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 349 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2003

...FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND EXPECTED PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK...

CURRENT LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA EXHIBITS DEEPLY AMPLIFIED FLOW, WITH A HIGH-OVER-LOW BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE WEST, AND A DEEP MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CWA IS CURRENTLY IN BETWEEN THE POLAR JET TO THE EAST, AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE SOUTH, RESULTING IN FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS. PATCHY FOG (3-5 MILES VISIBILITY) ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA THIS MORNING WITH BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. DRIER AIR IS ENCROACHING FROM THE NORTH, THOUGH, AND WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 12Z, SO WILL LEAVE FOG WORDING OUT OF FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INVADE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. CONSEQUENTLY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FARTHER SOUTHWEST WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 70S, WITH MID-UPPER 70S FARTHER NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESS DENSE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT. BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH JET DYNAMICS AND WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, A BIT TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT, SO INTRODUCED 20 POPS FOR THE COUNTIES BORDERING OKLAHOMA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN CURRENT LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NEW MEXICO, ADDED THUNDER WORDING TO SHOWERS, BUT NOTHING EVEN CLOSE TO SEVERE EXPECTED.

AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST AND AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS, MODELS HINT AT A WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. TROUGH APPEARS QUITE WEAK AND MOISTURE IS NIL, SO PROBABLY ONLY A FEW CLOUDS. ADDITIONALLY, MODELS HAVE BEEN STEADILY TRENDING THE BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WEAKER AND FARTHER EAST, SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70 TO NEAR 80, NOT COOLING MUCH LIKE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

AS PREVIOUSLY STATED, PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY, AS LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ACTING TO FLATTEN AND PROGRESS THE WESTERN RIDGE EAST EVEN MORE. RESULTANT CONDITIONS WILL BE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AS WELL AS WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH, AS WELL AS WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE EXPECTED LONGWAVE TROUGH. THEREFORE, DIDN'T CHANGE EXTENDED PERIOD MUCH, LEAVING MID-UPPER 70S AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THURSDAY.

FCSTID = KLEINSASSER / 21

ICT 74 53 78 52 / 0 10 10 0 HUT 75 52 79 52 / 0 5 5 0 EWK 75 52 78 52 / 0 5 5 0 EQA 75 53 78 52 / 0 10 5 0 WLD 74 55 74 52 / 10 20 20 5 RSL 76 51 81 51 / 0 0 5 0 GBD 76 51 80 51 / 0 0 5 0 SLN 76 51 80 51 / 0 0 5 0 MPR 75 52 79 52 / 0 5 5 0 CFV 75 55 73 52 / 5 20 20 10 CNU 76 54 76 51 / 0 10 10 5 K88 76 53 77 51 / 0 10 10 5

.ICT... KS...NONE.

$$