Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT" or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 10/03/03

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLING AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LIMITED CLEARING INTO FRIDAY AS A COASTAL EDDY DEVELOPS. AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST AND THE EDDY WEAKENS...WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEKEND UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND COOLING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...MODERATE EDDY DEVELOPING OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS EXPECTED. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS. MARINE LAYER DEPTH HAS BEEN INCREASING FROM ORANGE CNTY NORTHWARD TO AROUND 2.2K FT. ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE INCREASED A BIT FROM YESTERDAY. SAT LOOPS SHOW WELL DEFINED CLOUD BAND FROM OFF THE OR CST TO SE OF SFO WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK FCST TO DRIVE THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER S NV FRI.

ETA AND AVN MODELS LOOK SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH 60 HR. UPPER LOW MOVES EAST LATE FRI WITH WEAK RIDGING SAT AND SUN...FOLLOWED BY SECOND TROUGH LATE MON INTO TUE. STRONG BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE OVER W CANADA THROUGH SUN BEFORE WEAKENING WHICH ALLOWS THE WESTERLIES TO PUNCH EAST...INTO THE PAC NW BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALL THIS ACTION SPELLS LITTLE MORE WEATHER FOR US THAN PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS AND A VACILLATING MARINE LAYER WEST OF THE MTNS.

LOOKING TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE WESTERLIES SET UP ZONALLY ACROSS THE N TIER OF STATES WHICH KEEPS OUR WEATHER FAIRLY AVERAGE AND DRY. LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY SANTA ANA TYPE CONDITIONS UNTIL THE WESTERLIES BUCKLE...WHICH IS NOT HINTED AT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

.SAN...NONE.

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.OVERVIEW...COLDEST NIGHT SINCE LAST SPRING ONSTORE TONIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT FROST EXPECTED W OF I-95

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM OH VALLEY TON...W/ CLR SKIES. WINDS HWVR ONLY DMNSH TO LIGHT WINDS FOR AREAS W OF I-95...ALLWNG FOR FULL DECOUPLING AND FROST FORMATION (XCPT FOR ARND RIC WHERE URBAN HEAT ISLAND WILL KEEP SFC TEMP UP TO HIGH FOR FROST...THOUGH DID MENTION IN OUTLYING AREAS FOR RIC/HENRICO CNTY ZONE). NO FRZ WRNG AS TEMPS IN NRN 2 PIED ZONE GROUPS (PRINCE EDWARD TO LOUISA/CAROLINE) SHLDNT BE AOB FRZG FOR > 1 HR...BEST CHC OF BLW FRZNG TEMPS IS ARND FVX...W/ ALL GDNC...INCLDNG ALL MEX ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A LOW AOB FRZNG. FOR SBY...THE RECORD LOW TOMORROW MORNING IS 34 SET IN 1974...GIVEN THAT THE AIRPORT THERE IS A LOCAL COLD SPOT...THAT COULD BE IN JEPORDY TONIGHT...AT RIC/ORF/ECG SHLD BE 3-4 DEG ABV THE RECORD LOWS. HIGH SLIDES OFFSHR DRNG THE DAY TOM...W/ RETURN FLW SETTING UP BY LATE AFT...BUT NOT SOON ENGH TO OVERCOME SUBSIDENCE INVRSN...SO EVEN THOUGH 850 TMPS ABT 2 DEG WRMR THAN TODAY...HIGHS SHLD BE ABT THE SAME. FRI NGT SHLD BE A GOOD 8-12 DEG WARMER THAN TON...W/ DECENT SW RETURN FLOW. FOR SAT... JUST A GRADUAL INCR IN CLDS...W/ DECENT WAA...PUSHING TMPS INTO THE L-M 70S (WARMER IF THE ETA IS CORRECT (10-12 C 850 TMPS...BUT THAT SEEMS A TAD WARM))...BELIEVE ETA IS SPURIOUS W/ ITS PRECIP MAX OFF THE SE US COAST...SO DID NOT ENHANCE CLD CVR OVR SE ZONES. SAT NIGHT...GFS AND ETA DELAY ONSET OF PRECIP UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THEN ONLY ACRS NW 1/2 OF CWA...AS COLD FRONTS APPROACH WAS DELAYED. SUN...KEPT CHC SHRA ALL ZONES W/ PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...THOUGH ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MOIST WILL BE LIMITED ESP FOR SRN ZONES. END PRECIP DRNG THE AFT FOR WRN ZONES...AND BY EVE FOR ALL BET ZONES ALNG ALBERMARLE SOUND AND VA BCH...WHERE I END BEFORE MIDNIGHT....GOING W/ SLIGHTLY SLOWER ETA TIMING. KEPT CLDS UP N BEHIND FRONT AS DCNT AMT OF WRAP ARND MOIST IS AVAIL IN BOTH ETA AND GFS FOR APPRCHNG UPR TRF TO ACT ON...HWVR DWNSLP FLOW SHLD CONFINE ANY PRECIP TO THE FOOTHILLS AND W.

.EXTENDED...ANTHR CANADIAN HIGH BLDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT MON INTO TUE...THEN ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVR SRN NEW ENGLAND WED THRU THU... CREATING NE FLOW OVR MOST OF THE REGION. THE 6Z GFS WAS A REASONABLE COMPROMISE BTWN YSTDY'S ECMWF AND THE 0Z GFS SO USED TO MAKE THE FCST FOR MON-THU OF NXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS ONLY RE-ENFORCED TREWNDS OF 6Z GFS.

.MARINE...SCA TONIGHT FOR WINDS FOR BAY AND SND W/ SURGE...AND FOR SEAS TO 5 FT FOR ALL CSTL WTRS W/ WINDS JUST BLW SCA LVLS AS WELL. SHLD BE QUITE UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

.AVIATION...VFR NXT 24 HRS...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS COULD IMPACT LIGHTER AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING.

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS... SBY 34 62 45 71 / 00 00 00 10 OXB 40 63 52 70 / 00 00 00 10 WAL 41 63 51 70 / 00 00 00 10 FVX 32 63 43 74 / 00 00 00 10 RIC 36 62 46 73 / 00 00 00 10 PTB 36 64 46 75 / 00 00 00 10 AKQ 35 64 45 74 / 00 00 00 10 PHF 42 63 50 73 / 00 00 00 10 ORF 47 64 53 72 / 00 00 00 10 ECG 43 65 51 74 / 00 00 00 10

.AKQ... .MD...SCA ATLC CSTL WTRS. .VA...FROST ADVY VAZ048-049-060>070-079-080. SCA ATLC CSTL WTRS AND BAY. .NC...SCA ATLC CSTL WTRS N CURRITUCK BCH LGT AND CURRITUCK SND.

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.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLING AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LIMITED CLEARING INTO FRIDAY AS A COASTAL EDDY DEVELOPS. AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST AND THE EDDY WEAKENS...SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN DURING THE WEEKEND UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND COOLING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BASE OF THE MARINE INVERSION AROUND 2500 FEET WITH A TOP OF 3000 TO 3500 FT. A SHORTWAVE IS PASSING BY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A WELL DEFINED EDDY OVR THE CSTL WTRS. DEEPENING TRENDS IN THE FORECAST LOOK FINE...BUT THE AMOUNT OF DEEPENING MAY NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH. WHILE CLOUD TOPS ARE GOING UP...SO ARE THE BASES. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ANY DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING FAIRLY PATCHY. SHORTWAVE RDGG FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY WEAK. WARMING SHOULD BE MINOR AS WELL AS ANY DECR IN MARINE LYR DEPTH. MAIN IMPACT SHOULD BE A WKNG OF THE ONSHR FLOW. SHORTWAVE/UPR TROUGH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR MORE COOLING/DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LYR/ETC.

.SAN...NONE.

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.OVERVIEW...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AND WILL BE WELL OUT TO SEA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM CANADA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHORT-TERM...COLD AIR THIS MORNING SHORT-LIVED AS SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SURFACE WINDS RETURN TO SOUTH LATE TODAY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAP INTO SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...GFS HAS PRECIP CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO HANDLE ANY SPRINKLES THAT MIGHT OCCUR WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC LOW.

.EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY AND PROVIDE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS INTO TUESDAY.

.MARINE...SCA TODAY FOR WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WHERE CURRENTLY GUSTS ARE EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS. SCA FOR THE BAY AND SOUND DUE TO WINDS.

.AVIATION...VFR OVER NEXT 24 HRS...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS COULD IMPACT LIGHTER AIRCRAFT TODAY.

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS... SBY 62 45 72 57 / 00 00 10 10 OXB 63 52 71 60 / 00 00 10 10 WAL 63 51 71 59 / 00 00 10 10 FVX 62 43 75 52 / 00 00 10 20 RIC 62 46 74 54 / 00 00 10 20 PTB 64 46 76 54 / 00 00 10 20 AKQ 64 46 75 55 / 00 00 10 10 PHF 63 50 73 57 / 00 00 10 10 ORF 65 53 73 60 / 00 00 10 10 ECG 64 52 75 59 / 00 00 10 10

.AKQ... .MD...SCA ATLC CSTL WTRS. .VA...SCA ATLC CSTL WTRS AND BAY. .NC...SCA ATLC CSTL WTRS N CURRITUCK BCH LGT AND CURRITUCK SND.

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BEAUTIFUL START TO THE DAY...SUNNY SKIES...AND TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY FROM CHILLY START. FCST MAXES FOR TODAY MIGHT BE A TAD ON HIGH SIDE...BUT WILL LET THEM RIDE...AS IT IS BETTER TO ERR A CPL OF DEG ON HIGH SIDE FOR HIGHS...IF AT ALL. VORT LOBE STRTCHNG FROM ARK INTO TN...SHLD MV INTO NC BY LATE AFT...BRINGING ASSOC MID-HIGH CLDS TO THE N OF IT INTO SRN 2/3 OF CWA W OF BAY BY EVE...SO INCR CLD CVR THOSE LCTNS TO EITHER M CLR (ERN 1/2 OF THAT AREA) OR PT CLDY (WRN 1/2 OF THAT AREA). OTW ZONES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.

MARINE: DROPPED SCAS ALL ZONES AS WINDS AND SEAS/WAVES ARE BLW CRITERIA NOW THAT SURGE HAS PASSED.

.PREV AFD BELOW...

.OVERVIEW...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AND WILL BE WELL OUT TO SEA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM CANADA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHORT-TERM...COLD AIR THIS MORNING SHORT-LIVED AS SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SURFACE WINDS RETURN TO SOUTH LATE TODAY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAP INTO SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...GFS HAS PRECIP CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO HANDLE ANY SPRINKLES THAT MIGHT OCCUR WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC LOW.

.EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY AND PROVIDE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS INTO TUESDAY.

.MARINE...SCA TODAY FOR WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WHERE CURRENTLY GUSTS ARE EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS. SCA FOR THE BAY AND SOUND DUE TO WINDS.

.AVIATION...VFR OVER NEXT 24 HRS...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS COULD IMPACT LIGHTER AIRCRAFT TODAY.

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS... SBY 62 45 72 57 / 00 00 10 10 OXB 63 52 71 60 / 00 00 10 10 WAL 63 51 71 59 / 00 00 10 10 FVX 62 43 75 52 / 00 00 10 20 RIC 62 46 74 54 / 00 00 10 20 PTB 64 46 76 54 / 00 00 10 20 AKQ 64 46 75 55 / 00 00 10 10 PHF 63 50 73 57 / 00 00 10 10 ORF 65 53 73 60 / 00 00 10 10 ECG 64 52 75 59 / 00 00 10 10

.AKQ... .MD...NONE. .VA...NONE. .NC...NONE.

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MALOIT