FXUS62 KFFC 150115
AFDATL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
845 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2003

.OVERVIEW...UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN VERY SLOW TO CHANGE...BUT SUBTLE 
CHANGES ALOFT HAVE PROVIDED US SOME RELIEF FROM THE INCESSANT SEVERE 
WEATHER AND FLOODING OF RECENT. OVERALL...LARGE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS 
IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S...AND AMPLIFIES EASTWARD DURING 
MIDWEEK. TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. 
MEANWHILE...CLAUDETTE MEANDERS SLOWLY NW TOWARD THE TX COAST...STILL 
WAITING TO BE SHOVED WESTWARD UNDER BUILDING LARGE UPPER RIDGE.

.SHORT TERM...TSRA/SHRA COVERAGE CONSIDERABLY LESS TODAY THAN 
YESTERDAY...AND HAS DROPPED INTO THE 10% COVERAGE RANGE LATE THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES 
FROM EARLIER STORMS. ATMOSPHERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE THAN 
YESTERDAY WITH CAPES LESS THAN 1000...LIS NEAR -2...AND WARMING 
TEMPS TO -6 OR -7 AT 500MB...COMPARED WITH CAPES OF 2500...LIS OF 
-7...AND 500MB TEMPS OF -10 YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS...LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT AND CONTINUES TO COMBINE WITH MESOSCALE 
BOUNDARIES. PLAN ON NEARLY ALL ACTIVITY DISSIPATING AFTER 
MIDNIGHT...BUT GIVEN NATURE OF ATMOSPHERE AND PREVIOUS EVENTS WILL 
KEEP ISOLATED IN ALL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED 
SLIGHTLY...SO LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE ARE SUPPORTED. WIND 
SPEEDS IN ZONES ARE TOO HIGH AND WILL BE LOWERED ON UPDATE.

.LONG TERM...UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED WITH 
VERY INTENSE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA AND TROUGH 
EASTERN U.S...DIURNAL CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY...BUT 
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO NORTHERN AREAS AND THIS SHOULD 
KEEP ACTIVITY ON THE ORDER OF TODAY'S COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO 
PREVIOUS DAYS. AS THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK 
APPROACHES...TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EAST ONCE AGAIN WITH A 
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. I 
DON'T SEE ANY DAYS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WHERE POPS CAN BE 
REMOVED...BUT ON THE OTHER HAND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.

$$

RAB