FXUS63 KGRR 220758
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
355 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

.SHORT TERM...
A LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING IS EXPECTED TODAY. PATCHY FOG THAT HAS 
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY ERODE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS 
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. SFC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING IN 
YET ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE 1000-700 MB RH LAYER IS A BIT MORE HUMID THAN 
IT WAS FOR YESTERDAY. BASED ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THIS WOULD MATCH UP 
WELL WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TRYING TO EXTEND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE 
SOUTHEAST. THICKNESS VALUES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1400 TO 1406. 
BASED OFF OF THE GRR STUDY...THIS WOULD PROVIDE AROUND 80 NORTH TO THE LOWER 
80S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OVERNIGHT EXPECT THAT PATCHY FOG MAY 
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE BEFORE EXPECT GROUND FOG TO NOT 
BE VERY WIDE SPREAD. 

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SFC RIDGE IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. DRY AIR TRIES TO HOLD 
ONTO THE REGION THROUGH THUR...WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO 
THE LOWER 80S FROM GRR SOUTH. AT THE MID LEVELS WINDS ARE INCREASING THROUGHOUT 
THE AFTERNOON THUR...AND BY 00Z THE 850MB WIND FIELD IS PROGGING A 35KT WIND 
OVERHEAD. THE PLAINS VORT IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF 
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN 
THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY LATE THUR AFTERNOON. BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN 
ATTACHED TO THE VORT...OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY FRI. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO 
LOWER THROUGH FRI...AND WILL BEGIN COLD AIR ADVECTING BY MID MORNING AT 925MB. 
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE GOING WX 
EXPECTED FOR FRI...ALTHOUGH WILL REDUCE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING. WOULDN'T 
BE SURPRISED TO NOT SEE ANY PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM FRI. TEMPERATURES WILL 
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRI.


.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS DRY.  THE 850 MB
THERMAL TROUGH IS MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDS ON 
SATURDAY.  THEN TEMPERATURES AT 850 ONLY RISE SLIGHTLY THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE.  WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE 
LOW LEVELS...OUR WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD 
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

BEACHLER MJS