AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 950 AM MST SUN JUL 30 2006 .SYNOPSIS...THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL RESULT IN MORE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK EAST OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY. UNTIL THEN HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN. BY WEDNESDAY THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT FOR A RETURN TO NORMAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST. && .DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ACTIVE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA EVEN THOUGH MOST THE TUCSON POPULATION CENTER MISSED OUT ON THE HEAVY RAIN. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BATCH OF RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF COCHISE AND CENTRAL PINAL COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES NOTED ON SATELLITE ACROSS PIMA COUNTY FOR THE TIME BEING. LATEST MODELS STILL ADVERTISED DECENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE STARTING TO DRY THE REGION OUT BY MID NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE FLASH FLOODING BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN RECEIVED THE PAST FOUR DAYS. STILL A FEW RIVER CONCERNS...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AND WIDESPREAD LAST NIGHT TO SEE ANY FLOODING OF THE RIVERS OR LARGER WASHES TODAY. ALTHOUGH...SEVERAL RIVERS AND WASHES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HIGH FLOWS FOR SOME OF TODAY BEFORE RECEDING. TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE TRICKY TODAY. THE RUC MODEL SUGGESTED THAT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TO WARRANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A DIFFERENT TREND IN THE TIMING OF RAINFALL THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED THE PAST FOUR DAYS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL MONITOR ANY NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTH AND IF NOTHING SHOWS UP BY NOON...WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO...MAY NEED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND MAKE IT IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY TO COVER THE MAIN RAINFALL THREAT. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATED DISCUSSION IF THIS HAPPENS AROUND NOON MST. && .PREV DISCUSSION...THE MAIN CULPRIT DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY SINCE FRIDAY IS THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW...THAT IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER ALBUQUERQUE. THIS FEATURE WILL BE AROUND FOR ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE GETTING KICKED NORTHEAST AS PACIFIC NW TROF MOVES INLAND. SO AFTER ANOTHER ACTIVE MORNING...CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PICK UP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT OUT IN WESTERN PIMA COUNTY WHERE THEY WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY AND BE AROUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS FLOW WILL SLOWLY DECREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING UP BACK INTO A NORMAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY AUGUST. && .AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT KTUS. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH PUBLIC ZONES AZZ019-029>035 UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON az AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 235 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006 .SYNOPSIS... 18Z WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING LARGE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ITS GROUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AREAS UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HEAT ADVISORIES AND STATEMENTS COMMON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. THIS RIDGE IS BOUNDED BY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE SEEN RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH CAN BE SEEN DIGGING ALONG THE CANADIAN WEST COAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ASHORE IT WILL HELP TO GIVE THE UPPER RIDGE A KICK TO THE EAST BRINGING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. CLOSER TO HOME...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER OUR ARE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY GENERALLY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY MOIST AND AID IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT DRIER MID-LEVELS UNDER THE RIDGE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING POPS BACK TO 10-20% BELOW CLIMO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE FORECAST AREA MAY COME UNDER THE PARTIAL INFLUENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE OR TWO DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...THAT COULD BRIEFLY ADD MORE MOISTURE TO THE MIX AND BRING POPS UP. AS IS USUAL...THE GUIDANCE IS HAVING A HARD TIME PINNING THESE FEATURES DOWN. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS. NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILE WITH 2000 J/KG OF CAPE DISTRIBUTED THINLY THROUGH THE COLUMN IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT LOCALIZED STREET/SMALL STREAM FLOODING UNDER STRONGER STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL WASH OUT OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SE U.S. (MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WEAK DPVA AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL HELP KEEP SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER GOING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 40 RANGE...EVEN AFTER SUNSET AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY GO FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MORE TYPICAL SUMMER DAY FOR OUR AREA LOOKS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE CENTER WILL BUILD JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUING TO RESIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH. 1000-700 MB FLOW FROM THE WEST SHOULD YIELD NEAR CLIMO POPS (40-50) ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AT THE MID-LEVELS WITH THE NAM SHOWING MORE. EVEN WITH THE NAM SOLUTION PW VALUES ACROSS THE AREA ARE NEAR NORMAL WITH AROUND 1500 J/KG OF AFTERNOON CAPE. GFS IS MUCH MORE MOIST WITH PW VALUES STILL JUST ABOVE 2" AND AROUND 2000-2200 J/KG OF CAPE. TAKING A BLEND OF THE TWO WOULD YIELDS THE 40-50 POPS SEEN IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. WITH LESS CLOUDCOVER THEN SEEN TODAY AND THE RISING HEIGHTS WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MIDDLE 90S POSSIBLE OVER AL/GA ZONES. WITH THE SHOWERS/TSTORMS BEING DIURNAL DRIVEN...DO EXPECT THINGS TO QUIET DOWN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT WILL RETURN FOR THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WITH THE RIDGE FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY (30-40 POPS ACROSS THE AREA). WITH LESS CLOUDCOVER DO TO LESS CONVECTION...AND IMPRESSIVE 500MB HEIGHTS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS...WARMEST CONDITIONS AGAIN ACROSS OUR AL/GA ZONES. && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP US IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH HIGH POPS...BUT OPTED TO STICK WITH MID RANGE CHANCE POPS EACH FOR NOW. && .MARINE... MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. WIND AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION LEVELS...HOWEVER BOTH MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. OFFSHORE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD FOR THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUED BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. A POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN GOMEX ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE COASTAL WATERS. && .AVIATION... VFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY...BUT THE VISIBILITY AND CEILING WILL BE OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO IFR-MVFR IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT WILL OCCUR IN THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST OUTSIDE OF THESE STORMS. VSBYS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE RESTRICTED IN EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN WITH VSBY RESTRICTION LIKELY CONTINUING PAST SUNSET. VFR CONDS WILL CONT AFT 00Z WITH MVFR FOR VSBYS 08Z-12Z ACROSS MOST INLAND TERMINALS. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO RECENT AND FORECAST RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 73 91 73 95/ 40 40 20 35 PANAMA CITY 77 90 77 91/ 40 35 20 30 DOTHAN 72 91 73 95/ 40 40 20 30 ALBANY 73 93 74 96/ 35 35 20 30 VALDOSTA 72 92 73 96/ 40 40 20 35 CROSS CITY 74 90 74 93/ 40 40 20 35 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. && $$ AVIATION/FIRE WX...BLOCK PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA LONG TERM...BARRY fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 157 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006 .DISCUSSION...WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS AFTERNOON FEATURE HAZY SUNSHINE (THROUGH SUSPENDED AFRICAN DUST) ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. GULF COAST SEA BREEZE HAS YET TO SET IN AS OF THIS WRITING...SO WHETHER ANY STORMS DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR/GULF COASTAL LOCATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING IS IN QUESTION. STILL...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS THE POSSIBILITY IS STILL OUT THERE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LATEST WRF AND RUC RUNS ARE ACTUALLY SOMEWHAT MORE BULLISH WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION INITIATING ACROSS GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THEN...MUCH THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN SEEN TODAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FL MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER INTERIOR AREAS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SE STATES WILL PULL OUT AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUE-WED. THIS ACTUALLY ADVECTS HIGHER MOISTURE INTO SOUTH FL FROM THE NORTHEAST...WITH GFS SHOWING PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING OF INCREASING POPS TUE- WED...REACHING SCATTERED CATEGORY/NEAR CLIMO BY WED...AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEEKS END. THE TROPICS REMAIN RATHER QUIET...BUT CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING THINGS SHOULD START REVVING UP OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. GFS SHOWS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO NO CONCERNS. && .FIRE WEATHER...RH'S COULD FALL TO NEAR 40 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS OVER INTERIOR AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 77 92 76 91 / 10 10 10 30 FORT LAUDERDALE 79 91 79 91 / 10 10 10 20 MIAMI 80 92 79 92 / 10 10 10 20 NAPLES 76 93 76 93 / - 10 - 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DG fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 955 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006 .UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ALIGNED JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AT UPPER LEVELS...SOUTH FL IS BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS PLACES THE FORECAST AREA IN A BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE REGIME. THE MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS A DRY ATMOSPHERE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 1.45 INCHES. THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD INVERSION BETWEEN 3500-6000 FEET WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THIS INVERSION. GIVEN THIS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...I CANNOT RULE OUT ONE OR TWO STORMS WINNING THE BATTLE OVER THE SUBSIDENCE OVER WESTERN INTERIOR/GULF COASTAL LOCATIONS...SHOWN BY THE RUC. STRONG HEATING INTO THE MID 90S ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS (GPS MET DATA SHOWING PWATS NEAR 1.7 INCHES) AND SEA/LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ONE OR TWO STORMS TO POP OVER WESTERN INTERIOR/GULF COASTAL AREAS. THUS...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. IF A STORM DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP...IT COULD BECOME STRONG...MAINLY GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES DUE TO DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THUS...WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO SHOW A GUSTY WIND POSSIBILITY IN ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS. ONLY OTHER CHANGE WILL BE TO ADD HAZY SUNSHINE WORDING. SUSPENDED AFRICAN DUST CAME INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH CROSSED THE AREA EARLY YESTERDAY MORNING. SAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS DUST IN PLACE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO SOUTH FL...SO A HAZY DAY IS EXPECTED. COASTAL WATERS FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH PREVAILING WINDS AT THE C-MAN STATIONS ESE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. /DG && .PREV DISCUSSION... DISCUSSION...DRY AIR ON THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO MOVE OVER S FLA. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES SW...THIS DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER S FLA TODAY THROUGH TUE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EASTERLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD IMPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE LIMITED...ISOLATED (10%) E COAST AND MAINLY NOCTURNAL (BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING INTO THE E COAST ZONES AT THIS TIME)...TO WIDELY SCATTERED (20%) AND MAINLY DIURNAL /EARLY EVE INTERIOR AND W. TEMPS SEASONABLE AND POPS BELOW NORMS TODAY THROUGH TUE. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 70W...EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS E CARIB...WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH TOWARD S FLA. UPPER WINDS CIR -CULATING ABOUT UPPER LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS THOUGH SHEAR THIS MASS OF CONVECTION BUT AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD S FLA. WHEN THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO GULF WED...UPPER WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...PULLING THIS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE N AND OVER S FLA WED THROUGH FRI. INCREASED POPS TO MORE NORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MARINE...EASTERLY FLOW LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH PERIOD. WIND BECOMES E/NE TUE AS WAVE APPROACHES...THEN SE WED/THU BEHIND WAVE. FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 950 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006 .SYNOPSIS... 13Z WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING LARGE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ITS GROUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AREAS UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HEAT ADVISORIES AND STATEMENTS COMMON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. THIS RIDGE IS BOUNDED BY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE SEEN RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH CAN BE SEEN DIGGING ALONG THE CANADIAN WEST COAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ASHORE IT WILL HELP TO GIVE THE UPPER RIDGE A KICK TO THE EAST BRINGING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. CLOSER TO HOME...THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER OUR ARE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY GENERALLY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY MOIST AND AID IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION...DESPITE DRIER MID-LEVELS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .SHORT TERM...LATE MORNING INTO EVENING HOURS. DAY BEGINNING ON A GENERALLY QUIET NOTE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING TO FILTER THE SUN AND SLOW DIURNAL HEATING. THESE CLOUDS ARE RESULTING FROM A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GA...BOTH AIDING IN MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. DPVA COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ARE ENOUGH TO KEEP AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL GA AND EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA GOING. LOCAL RADARS SHOW THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SINKING SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR NORTHERN AL/GA ZONES DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THESE DYNAMICS SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 12Z KTLH SOUNDING IS QUITE MOIST THROUGHOUT ALMOST THE ENTIRE COLUMN WITH A RESULTING PW OF JUST OVER 2". THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT TODAY WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S MORE COMMON THAN LOWER 90S. MODIFYING LOCAL SOUNDINGS FOR THESE EXPECTED CONDITIONS GIVES AROUND OR JUST OVER 2000 J/KG OF CAPE. WITH THE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE THROUGH A VERY DEEP LAYER...THIS CAPE HAS A THIN DISTRIBUTION THROUGH THE COLUMN...NOT REALLY CONDUCIVE TO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT RATHER FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR FAIRLY EARLY CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH DECENT SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE BY MID AFTERNOON. GOING POP FORECAST OF HIGH CHANCE TO CATEGORICAL LOOK ON TRACK. A BIT MORE FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED THE PAST TWO DAYS...AND THEREFORE CONVECTION SHOULD SHOW MORE MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CONVECTIVE TRAINING SCENARIO SETS UP. && .MARINE... NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CAUTION LEVELS AWAY FROM ANY STORMS. && .AVIATION... VFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY...BUT THE VISIBILITY AND CEILING WILL BE OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO IFR-MVFR IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT WILL OCCUR IN THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST OUTSIDE OF THESE STORMS. VSBYS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE RESTRICTED IN EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN WITH VSBY RESTRICTION LIKELY CONTINUING PAST SUNSET. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO RECENT RAINFALL AND FORECAST RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. && $$ AVIATION/FIRE WX...BLOCK PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 830 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006 .DISCUSSION... ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING HAS PRETTY MUCH DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...AT LEAST TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE STILL DISCERNIBLE IN THE SURFACE DATA. ONE LIES ACROSS NORTHERN CHAMPAIGN AND VERMILION COUNTIES...AND A STRONGER ONE IS SPREADING RADIALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS STORMS NEAR EFFINGHAM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXIST TONIGHT AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL NEW CONVECTIVE INITIATION THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. AM THEREFORE HESITANT TO REMOVE ISOLATED STORMS FROM THE FORECAST...AT LEAST FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH CAPPING IS INCREASING WITH THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE...THE 00Z LINCOLN SOUNDING SHOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ABOVE THE CAP TO SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION. SOME OF THE UPDRAFTS COULD BE QUITE ROBUST PER THE 5400 J/KG CAPE ON THE SOUNDING...ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL FROM STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING CELLS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD RATHER THAN STRONG WINDS OR HAIL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS TO SEE IF WE NEED TO EXTEND THE ISOLATED POPS BEYOND MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER IN THE MEANTIME SEE LITTLE NEED TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 304 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006 MAIN CONCERNS ARE HEAT INDICES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT HAVE DISAGREEMENTS ON HOW FAR EAST THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE INTO ILLINOIS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GFS KEEPS US MORE MOIST...WHILE NAM-WRF BRINGS UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS MAKING PROGRESS TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MISSOURI. HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THIS WILL ONLY PUT A SMALL DENT IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL HELP REDUCE THE HEAT INDEX THAT MUCH. THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW THE AIR WARM UP TO HIGHER DRY BULB READINGS...THUS KEEPING THE HEAT INDEX NUMBERS AT ADVISORY LEVELS. SO...IN THE SHORT TERM...I LOWERED THE DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY IN THE WEST...BUT KEPT THE TEMPERATURES UP NEAR 100. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AN MCS THIS MORNING IN WISCONSIN...IS PROGRESSING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE CU FORMATION ALONG THAT OUTFLOW IS DECREASING IN INTENSITY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR CWA REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE...BUT WITHOUT A TRIGGER. CAPE VALUES OF 3K-4K J/KG. THE HIGHER LAPSE RATES REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA...PER RUC SOUNDINGS... AND CU FIELD FILLED IN MORE FULLY THERE. HOWEVER...STILL GETTING TOWERING CU IN SCHUYLER COUNTY IN OUR FAR WESTERN CWA. THIS AREA IS IN RESPONSE TO AN H5 SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH OVER THE H5 RIDGE. ORIGINALLY FELT THAT STORMS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IN OUR EASTERN HALF...SO I ADDED CHANCE POPS TO THAT AREA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED IN A SIMILAR SITUATION FROM LAST AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LINE OF STORMS FROM THE OUTFLOW STILL SEEM ON TRACK TO REACH OUR EASTERN ZONES BY EVENING...SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE POSSIBLE LOWER DEWPOINTS...HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER DRY BULB READINGS. WITHOUT THE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD AREAS REACHING OVER 110 HEAT INDEX READINGS /EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING LEVELS/ WOULD HAVE BEEN BETTER. KEPT HEAT ADVISORY GOING THROUGH TUESDAY. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE GFS WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND IN THE EUROPEAN MODELS IS TO SLOW IT DOWN...AND TO STALL THE FRONT OUT CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. I ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH CWA/S SOUTH OF US. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. && $$ 04/SHIMON il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 304 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERNS ARE HEAT INDICES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT HAVE DISAGREEMENTS ON HOW FAR EAST THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE INTO ILLINOIS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GFS KEEPS US MORE MOIST...WHILE NAM-WRF BRINGS UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS MAKING PROGRESS TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MISSOURI. HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THIS WILL ONLY PUT A SMALL DENT IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL HELP REDUCE THE HEAT INDEX THAT MUCH. THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW THE AIR WARM UP TO HIGHER DRY BULB READINGS...THUS KEEPING THE HEAT INDEX NUMBERS AT ADVISORY LEVELS. SO...IN THE SHORT TERM...I LOWERED THE DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY IN THE WEST...BUT KEPT THE TEMPERATURES UP NEAR 100. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AN MCS THIS MORNING IN WISCONSIN...IS PROGRESSING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE CU FORMATION ALONG THAT OUTFLOW IS DECREASING IN INTENSITY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR CWA REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE...BUT WITHOUT A TRIGGER. CAPE VALUES OF 3K-4K J/KG. THE HIGHER LAPSE RATES REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA...PER RUC SOUNDINGS... AND CU FIELD FILLED IN MORE FULLY THERE. HOWEVER...STILL GETTING TOWERING CU IN SCHUYLER COUNTY IN OUR FAR WESTERN CWA. THIS AREA IS IN RESPONSE TO AN H5 SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH OVER THE H5 RIDGE. ORIGINALLY FELT THAT STORMS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IN OUR EASTERN HALF...SO I ADDED CHANCE POPS TO THAT AREA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED IN A SIMILAR SITUATION FROM LAST AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LINE OF STORMS FROM THE OUTFLOW STILL SEEM ON TRACK TO REACH OUR EASTERN ZONES BY EVENING...SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE POSSIBLE LOWER DEWPOINTS...HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER DRY BULB READINGS. WITHOUT THE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD AREAS REACHING OVER 110 HEAT INDEX READINGS /EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING LEVELS/ WOULD HAVE BEEN BETTER. KEPT HEAT ADVISORY GOING THROUGH TUESDAY. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE GFS WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND IN THE EUROPEAN MODELS IS TO SLOW IT DOWN...AND TO STALL THE FRONT OUT CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. I ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH CWA/S SOUTH OF US. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. && $$ SHIMON il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1042 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006 .UPDATE... SHRT TERM CONCERNS PREDICATED ON INTENSE FWD PROPAGATING SVR MCS CROSSING CNTRL LK MI ATTM. LG SCALE OFB CONTS TO PUSH AND ABT TO CROSS INTO NRN IL W/LTL REDVLPMNT NOTED OVR SW WI/NW IL AND LIKELY A GOOD PROXY FOR ERN EDGE OF MID LVL CAPPING INVERSION. FARTHER EAST...MORE SIG REDVLPMNT TAKING PLACE OVR SE WI/NE IL ALG INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITHIN WAA REGIME AND SUSPECT THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE INTO THIS AFTN. SVR THREAT ASSOCD/W MCS SHLD MAINTAIN AS IT CONTS TO DROP SEWD W/DAMAGING WIND THREAT XPCD ALG AND NORTH OF A LAPORTE TO DEFIANCE LINE THIS AFTN. SRN EXTENT OF OFB PUSH MAY POSE AN ADDNL STORM RISK LTR TONIGHT IN ASSOCN/W INCREASING SWRLY LLJ AS PLAIN RIDGE SHIFTS EWD. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLD DEBRIS WILL HAMPER DEGREE OF WARMING ACRS NRN THIRD AND DROPPED THE HEAT ADVISORY THERE. ALL PERTINENT PRODUCT UPDATES OUT. && .AVIATION/UPDATE... CONVN A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY TDA AND A BIG CHALLENGE GIVEN SVR CONV COMPLEX OVER NRN/CNTRL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING DROPPING SEWD ALG ERN EDGE OF HOT PLAINS RIDGE AND IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. 12Z RAOBS SHLD OFFER SOME FURTHER CLUES AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS MCS HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT DROPS INTO THE SRN LAKES BY THIS AFTN ESP IN LIEU OF QUESTIONABLE SHRT TERM RUC GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE BRIEF MVFR VSBY IN MIST/HAZE THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MIX TO VFR CONDS. SHLD SEE ANOTHER PD OF MVFR VSBY TWD DAYBREAK MONDAY. WILL CONT TO MONITOR W/POTENTIAL UPDATES OUT BY MID MORNING. && .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY...RAISED HIGH TEMP FOR BENTON HARBOR WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON SO A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. DECREASED CLOUDINESS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TONIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING HIGH IN THE MID LEVELS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...BUT WARM AND MUGGY. THE CHANCE OF FOG IS DECREASING EACH DAY WITH STRONG EVAPORATION OF MOISTURE FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE GROUND MOISTURE...SO LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF TONIGHTS FORECAST. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME IS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY MAKE IT TO NORTHWEST OHIO LATER THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THESE STORMS ARE WEAKENING AS THEY TRAVEL SOUTHEAST SO ELECTED TO KEEP THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. && .LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. UPR LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS ARE FORECAST. THE BIG WEATHER FACTOR DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN OUR DISCUSSION THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF GROUND MOISTURE ACRS THE REGION FROM RECENT RAINS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY OF EVAPORATION...THERE WILL BE LESS OF IT WITH TIME...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO INCH UP TWO DEGREES ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THUS...WILL EVENTUALLY FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ALL LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 70S AT TIMES...HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT...HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH LOCAL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT BASED ON OVERNIGHT LOWS...THESE READINGS WILL BE QUITE WARM MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL PASS THIS INFORMATION ON TO THE DAYSHIFT AND LET THEM DECIDE...BASED ON FORECASTER DISCRETION...WHETHER THE NEXT HEAT ADVISORY ISSUANCE SHOULD COVER A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THAN JUST THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE UPR LVL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ACRS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPR LVL HIGH BECOMES SUPPRESSED ACRS THE GULF COAST/SE STATES...ALLOWING FOR A MID LVL TROF AND AN ASSOCD COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH A SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS ADVERTISED BY THE LATEST CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS STILL APPEARS TO BE A BIT FAST. HENCE...HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE POPS FROM THE ERN CWFA ON WEDNESDAY ...RELEGATING SMALL CHC POPS TO THE WRN CWFA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTN. HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE DELAY OF THE COLD FRONT...AFTN HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE JUST AS HOT AS TUESDAY/S READINGS. FOR NOW...HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S. LATER FCST SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE IF TEMPS SHOULD BE TWEAK A LITTLE HIGHER. ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SPELL MUCH COOLER WEATHER WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ008-INZ009-INZ012-INZ013-INZ014-INZ015-INZ016- INZ017-INZ018-INZ020-INZ022-INZ023-INZ024-INZ025-INZ026- INZ027-INZ032-INZ033-INZ034. MI...NONE. OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ004-OHZ005-OHZ015-OHZ016-OHZ024-OHZ025. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LAMBERTY LONG TERM....HICKMAN AVIATION...HOLSTEN in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 721 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006 .AVIATION/UPDATE... CONVN A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY TDA AND A BIG CHALLENGE GIVEN SVR CONV COMPLEX OVER NRN/CNTRL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING DROPPING SEWD ALG ERN EDGE OF HOT PLAINS RIDGE AND IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. 12Z RAOBS SHLD OFFER SOME FURTHER CLUES AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS MCS HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT DROPS INTO THE SRN LAKES BY THIS AFTN ESP IN LIEU OF QUESTIONABLE SHRT TERM RUC GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE BRIEF MVFR VSBY IN MIST/HAZE THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MIX TO VFR CONDS. SHLD SEE ANOTHER PD OF MVFR VSBY TWD DAYBREAK MONDAY. WILL CONT TO MONITOR W/POTENTIAL UPDATES OUT BY MID MORNING. && .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY...RAISED HIGH TEMP FOR BENTON HARBOR WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON SO A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. DECREASED CLOUDINESS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TONIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING HIGH IN THE MID LEVELS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...BUT WARM AND MUGGY. THE CHANCE OF FOG IS DECREASING EACH DAY WITH STRONG EVAPORATION OF MOISTURE FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE GROUND MOISTURE...SO LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF TONIGHTS FORECAST. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME IS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY MAKE IT TO NORTHWEST OHIO LATER THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THESE STORMS ARE WEAKENING AS THEY TRAVEL SOUTHEAST SO ELECTED TO KEEP THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. && .LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. UPR LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS ARE FORECAST. THE BIG WEATHER FACTOR DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN OUR DISCUSSION THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF GROUND MOISTURE ACRS THE REGION FROM RECENT RAINS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY OF EVAPORATION...THERE WILL BE LESS OF IT WITH TIME...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO INCH UP TWO DEGREES ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THUS...WILL EVENTUALLY FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ALL LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 70S AT TIMES...HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT...HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH LOCAL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT BASED ON OVERNIGHT LOWS...THESE READINGS WILL BE QUITE WARM MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL PASS THIS INFORMATION ON TO THE DAYSHIFT AND LET THEM DECIDE...BASED ON FORECASTER DISCRETION...WHETHER THE NEXT HEAT ADVISORY ISSUANCE SHOULD COVER A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THAN JUST THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE UPR LVL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ACRS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPR LVL HIGH BECOMES SUPPRESSED ACRS THE GULF COAST/SE STATES...ALLOWING FOR A MID LVL TROF AND AN ASSOCD COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH A SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS ADVERTISED BY THE LATEST CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS STILL APPEARS TO BE A BIT FAST. HENCE...HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE POPS FROM THE ERN CWFA ON WEDNESDAY ...RELEGATING SMALL CHC POPS TO THE WRN CWFA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTN. HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE DELAY OF THE COLD FRONT...AFTN HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE JUST AS HOT AS TUESDAY/S READINGS. FOR NOW...HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S. LATER FCST SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE IF TEMPS SHOULD BE TWEAK A LITTLE HIGHER. ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SPELL MUCH COOLER WEATHER WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION... UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LOWER THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT WINDS HIGH DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR SKIES...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH FORT WAYNE HAVING THE BETTER CHANCE OF FOG. DECREASED VISIBILITY FOR THIS MORNING TO TEMPO IFR ...KEPT MVFR VISIBILITY AT SOUTH BEND. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ003-INZ004-INZ005-INZ006- INZ007-INZ008-INZ009-INZ012-INZ013-INZ014-INZ015-INZ016- INZ017-INZ018-INZ020-INZ022-INZ023-INZ024-INZ025-INZ026- INZ027-INZ032-INZ033-INZ034. MI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077-MIZ078-MIZ079-MIZ080-MIZ081. OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-OHZ002-OHZ004-OHZ005-OHZ015-OHZ016-OHZ024-OHZ025. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LAMBERTY LONG TERM....HICKMAN AVIATION...HOLSTEN in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1015 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006 .UPDATE... FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT IS THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL OF SVR STORMS. SHRA/TSRA THAT WERE FIRING IN NE MN AND THEN SLIDING SE INTO UPPER MI IN A REGION OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS HAVE RECENTLY ENDED AS FRONTOGENESIS HAS WEAKENED PER 21Z/00Z RUC. ATTENTION OVERNIGHT TURNS TO THE NW AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40KT...SPARKING MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION. 00Z KINL SOUNDING SHOWED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CIN FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM ROUGHLY AROUND 810MB WHERE CAPE IS UPWARDS OF 3400J/KG WITH CIN AROUND 30J/KG. CONVECTION THAT HAS RECENTLY FIRED JUST N OF KINL MAY BE THE BEGINNINGS OF WHAT SHOULD BECOME A MUCH LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS WHICH WILL TEND TO SETTLE SE PER 850-300MB THICKNESS FIELD. HOWEVER...CONTINUED WARMING OF THE COLUMN AND INCREASING THICKNESS MAY WORK TO KEEP STORM MOVEMENT MORE ERLY. WILL THUS MAINTAIN FLAVOR OF CURRENT FCST WHICH HAS HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH POPS DROPPING TO SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY ACROSS FAR SCNTRL UPPER MI (MAY BE A ROUGH NIGHT ACROSS ISLE ROYALE AND NORTHERN/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR). ALTHOUGH STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE N OF THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT...SHEAR OF 35-45 KT CERTAINLY SUPPORTS POTENTIAL OF SVR STORMS OVER UPPER MI PER SPC OUTLOOK. && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 525 PM EDT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND OPPRESSIVE HEAT NEXT FEW DAYS ARE MAIN CONCERNS. WV LOOP SHOWS BROAD MID-LVL HOT RIDGE OVER NATIONS MID SECTION FLANKED BY TROFS OVER ERN CANADA AND ANOTHER TROF DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW. STORMS FIRING OVER NRN MN AT NOSE OF 25-30KT 8H JET AND MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG HAVE DRIFTED INTO THE WRN HALF OF UPR MI TODAY WHILE CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF CWA WITH EVEN UPR 60S OVER FAR WRN LOCATIONS. THIS HAS PREVENTED INITATION OF CONVECTION OVER FCST AREA THUS FAR AND ALSO WEAKENED CONVECTION ADVECTING INTO THE WRN HALF OF UPR MI. TONIGHT...AS LOW LVL JET INCREASES TO 40-50 KT OVER THE NRN PLAINS SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER ND AND MN WITH POSSIBLE MCS/S TRACKING EWD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. GIVEN AMOUNT OF DEEP SHEAR IN PLACE (35-40KT) AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY UPSTREAM...STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE STILL A THREAT ESPECIALLY FOR NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA. THUS...THE ENTIRE FCST AREA IS STILL IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE SPC DAY1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY LACK OF GOOD INSOLATION TODAY AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER AREA LOOK FOR SHRA/TSRA TO DIMINISH OVER THE SRN FCST LATE TONIGHT. MONDAY...FOCUS SHIFTS TO OPPRESSIVE HEAT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 25C OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. MIXING THESE TEMPS TO SFC WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100F IN MANY INLAND AREAS OF THE WRN HALF OF UPR MI. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH EXPECTED SFC DWPNTS AROUND 70F WILL BRING HEAT INDICES INTO THE 100-110 F RANGE BY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO EARLY EVENING. FOR THIS REASON HAVE ISSUED HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE WRN HALF COUNTIES. ERN COUNTIES MAY PUSH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER INLAND AREAS BUT FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS IN ONGOING SPSMQT. WITH CONSIDERABLE CAP IN PLACE THERE SHOULD BE DECENT AMOUNT OF CIN TO OVERCOME (A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG) DESPITE OVER 3K J/KG SBCAPE. SO HAVE TAKEN OUT PCPN CHCS FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA. KEPT IN A CHC OF TSRA OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ALGER-LUCE NRN SCHOOLCRAFT WHICH WILL BE MORE ON EDGE OF CAP AND CLOSER TO SFC BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR TUE PER 12Z UKMET INSTEAD OF QUICKER GFS/ETA GIVEN STRENGTH OF MID-LVL RDG. FOLLOWING THIS SOLN HAVE PULLED PCPN CHCS OUT FOR ALL BUT THE WRN COUNTIES MON NIGHT. KEPT IN LOW CHC POPS FOR ENTIRE FCST AREA ON TUE BUT WITH SLOWER PASSAGE AND UKMET STILL SHOWING OF 20-22C 8H TEMPS...WOULD EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MANY AREAS. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY COULD PUSH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN FOR MANY LOCATIONS. UKMET SHOWS COLD FRONT EXITING FCST AREA WED MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVE RIDING UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN SOME ANAFRONT SHRA/TSRA WED MORNING DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY COOL DOWN TO MORE TOLERABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. .EXTENDED...MID LVL RIDGING HOLDING OVER THE AREA PER OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND GFS EXPERIMENTAL ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY FOR THU INTO SAT. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SUN SO BROUGHT IN A CHC OF TSRA LATE SAT NIGHT IN THE WRN COUNTIES SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA ON SUN. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVY FROM 9AM TO MIDNIGHT EDT MON FOR MIZ001>005-009>012-084. && $$ ROLFSON (UPDATE) VOSS (PREV DISCUSSION) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1004 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006 .UPDATE...SFC/RUC/SATELLITE/RADAR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH SFC AND H8 TD AIR NOW CREEPING BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH SRN PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN/LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN...OVERTAKING DRY AND CAPPED AIR MASS BELOW 650MB LEFT BEHIND BY THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON MCS ACTIVITY. LLJ OF 30-40KTS IS DIRECTED INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AND WESTERN ONTARIO...IN ENVIRONMENT DEFINED BY H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7.5 C/KM AND CONVERGENCE OF 20C H8 TD'S AND GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER. CONVECTION HAS JUST BEGUN HERE AND THIS LOOKS TO BE THE START OF TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING;S ROUND OF CONVECTION. WE ARE STILL STABLE IN NRN MICHIGAN BUT DO NOT FEEL THAT WILL LAST ALL NIGHT. WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LLJ WILL SLOWLY ALLOW THE DRIER MORE STABLE AIR MASS TO BECOME MORE MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CAPPING SEEN AT 650 MB TO ERODE AROUND 09Z. WE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY THIS TIME...OR JUST HAVE THE CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER MCS THAT WILL TRACK EASTWARD. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN SOUTHWARD AND INTO NRN MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT/DAYBREAK...TOWARD AXIS OF GREATEST H8-H5 THETA-E (OVER OUR AREA AT THIS TIME). THIS IS A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT OCCURRED OVER WISCONSIN LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE ONGOING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THESE THINGS CAN BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK. HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CHANCES FOR STORMS LIFTED TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN CWA...AND QUITE POSSIBLE ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN. SEVERE WEATHER IS A POSSIBILITY WITH STRONG MCS OUTFLOW PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS. ONGOING FORECAST HAS THE IDEA...BUT TWEAKS MAY NEED TO BE MADE AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVERNIGHT. FLIRTED WITH THE IDEA OF ISSUING THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. PLENTY OF DISCUSSION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE LED TO NOT DOING THIS JUST YET. THIS BECAUSE OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS/PRECIP POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY WHICH MAY HAMPER HEAT INDICES GETTING TO 100F. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS CERTAINLY THERE AND A RATHER HOT AND UNCOMFORTABLE DAY CAN BE EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON (WHEN ALL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SHOULD BE GONE). WILL LET MIDNIGHT CREW ASSESS THIS AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL BE MORE EVOLVED AND SLIGHTLY EASIER TO DISCERN THE CORRECT PATH. SMD && DISCUSSION...MCS CONTINUES TO ROLL ACROSS SE LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE THUMB...WHILE LAST OF THIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW EXITED OUT OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCS...SUBSIDENCE HAS RESULTED IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S A GENERATING MLCAPES ESTIMATED IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE PER LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...WARMER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR TRYING TO NOSE INTO THE WESTERN AND NRN HALF OF THE CWA PER LATEST RUC/NAM FORECASTS PRODUCING SOME CAP TO SFC BASED CONVECTION. LITTLE IF ANY CAP ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM AND STILL SOME BUBBLY CU IN THIS AREA. MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT MASKED BY CONVECTION ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN BUT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN UP TO NEAR DULUTH. BIG SURGE OF WARMTH/MOISTURE ONGOING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP INTO MN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONTINUOUSLY BACKBUILDING ALL DAY FROM THE ARROWHEAD OVER TO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DYING AS IT TRIES TO ADVECT SOUTHEASTWARD. FORECAST ISSUES ARE TWO FOLD...ANY CONVECTION THIS EVENING DUE TO LAST BIT OF HEATING...FOLLOWED BY MCS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW LEVEL WARM AND DRY AIR SLOWLY NOSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS OVER NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DROPPING OFF OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. RECENT ACARS FROM CIU/MKG/APPLETON WI REVEALING LOW LEVEL CAP STRENGTHENING AS A RESULT OF THE WARM/DRIER AIR WHILE RIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE NEAR APPLETON WI...STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT. STILL A WEAK CAP IN PLACE OVER NE LOWER MICHIGAN PER APN ACARS AND THUS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED. SO...WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PORTION OF NE LOWER MI. OVERNIGHT...BIGGER FORECAST QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND UPSTREAM MCS EVOLUTION. NAM/GFS/RUC FORECASTS ALL DEPICT STRONG SURGE OF THETA-E AIR FROM MN UP INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF INCREASING LLJ ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS SUGGESTS THAT CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY GET SHOVED NNE WITH TIME RUNNING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO AS THE LLJ VEERS OVERNIGHT. BUT CORFIDI VECTORS/THICKNESS GRADIENT SUGGESTS A SSE TURN DOWN INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN IS A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT... DROPPING AN MCS DOWN ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. STRONG LLJ JUST MAY KEEP ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS...STILL MAY SEE AT LEAST SCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP ALONG THE THETA-E GRADIENT AS IS PUSHES THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN. WITH THESE CONSIDERATIONS IN MIND HAVE NUDGED POPS UP TO LIKELY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT. ADAM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...500 MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO MICHIGAN...MARKING THE BEGINNING OF OUR WELL-ADVERTISED EARLY WEEK HEAT WAVE. SURFACE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. LOW/MID LEVEL WARMING (CAP) AND DRYING THRU THE COLUMN WILL TAKE PLACE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE...FOCUS AND TRACK OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT...CONFINING ANY ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF THUNDER AND PRECIP TO UPPER MICHIGAN FOR MOST OF MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT MAY ACTUALLY PUSH FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD BY MONDAY EVENING FOR DRY WX ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND NEARLY FULL SUN WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...EVEN TO NEAR 100 IN DOWNSLOPE WIND AREAS IN NE LOWER MICHIGAN IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY HUMID AS WELL WITH SFC DWPTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S...PUSHING HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT TIMES. THE ONLY POTENTIAL LIMITATION TO REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS IF WE MAINTAIN ENOUGH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER VIA DYING UPSTREAM MCS DURING THE DAY TO HOLD SOLAR HEATING SOMEWHAT AT BAY. WILL THEREFORE NOT ISSUE THE ADVISORY JUST YET AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER ANALYSIS BY THE EVENING AND/OR MID SHIFT AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S LATE MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS BRING THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT INTO ERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN SAG THE FRONT THRU NRN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS TIMING MAY BE A BIT RUSHED AS I THINK DAYTIME HEATING MAY SLOW THE SE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...AND EVOLUTION THAT IS NOT RARE THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS ALIGNED IN A NARROW BAND ALONG AND THE FRONT. THUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND LOWER 90S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN. ARRIVAL OF FRONT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND BRING CHANCES OF PRECIP BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL TRY TO CRUDELY TIME THIS...PUSHING CHANCE POPS INTO FAR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING TUESDAY MORNING...AND THE INTO THE REST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER 18Z. CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER OUR AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER SURFACE LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPSTREAM DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THRU CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY DROP SE OUT OF MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THRU...AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT AND AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NRN LAKES BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND PLEASANT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND ONLY FOR UPPER MICHIGAN AS A WEAK FRONT MOVING THRU CANADA CLIPS THE AREA. && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 435 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006 .DISCUSSION...MCS CONTINUES TO ROLL ACROSS SE LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE THUMB...WHILE LAST OF THIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW EXITED OUT OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCS...SUBSIDENCE HAS RESULTED IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S A GENERATING MLCAPES ESTIMATED IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE PER LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...WARMER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR TRYING TO NOSE INTO THE WESTERN AND NRN HALF OF THE CWA PER LATEST RUC/NAM FORECASTS PRODUCING SOME CAP TO SFC BASED CONVECTION. LITTLE IF ANY CAP ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM AND STILL SOME BUBBLY CU IN THIS AREA. MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT MASKED BY CONVECTION ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN BUT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN UP TO NEAR DULUTH. BIG SURGE OF WARMTH/MOISTURE ONGOING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP INTO MN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONTINUOUSLY BACKBUILDING ALL DAY FROM THE ARROWHEAD OVER TO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DYING AS IT TRIES TO ADVECT SOUTHEASTWARD. FORECAST ISSUES ARE TWO FOLD...ANY CONVECTION THIS EVENING DUE TO LAST BIT OF HEATING...FOLLOWED BY MCS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW LEVEL WARM AND DRY AIR SLOWLY NOSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS OVER NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DROPPING OFF OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. RECENT ACARS FROM CIU/MKG/APPLETON WI REVEALING LOW LEVEL CAP STRENGTHENING AS A RESULT OF THE WARM/DRIER AIR WHILE RIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE NEAR APPLETON WI...STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT. STILL A WEAK CAP IN PLACE OVER NE LOWER MICHIGAN PER APN ACARS AND THUS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED. SO...WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PORTION OF NE LOWER MI. OVERNIGHT...BIGGER FORECAST QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND UPSTREAM MCS EVOLUTION. NAM/GFS/RUC FORECASTS ALL DEPICT STRONG SURGE OF THETA-E AIR FROM MN UP INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF INCREASING LLJ ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS SUGGESTS THAT CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY GET SHOVED NNE WITH TIME RUNNING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO AS THE LLJ VEERS OVERNIGHT. BUT CORFIDI VECTORS/THICKNESS GRADIENT SUGGESTS A SSE TURN DOWN INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN IS A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT... DROPPING AN MCS DOWN ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. STRONG LLJ JUST MAY KEEP ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS...STILL MAY SEE AT LEAST SCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP ALONG THE THETA-E GRADIENT AS IS PUSHES THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN. WITH THESE CONSIDERATIONS IN MIND HAVE NUDGED POPS UP TO LIKELY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT. ADAM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...500 MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO MICHIGAN...MARKING THE BEGINNING OF OUR WELL-ADVERTISED EARLY WEEK HEAT WAVE. SURFACE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. LOW/MID LEVEL WARMING (CAP) AND DRYING THRU THE COLUMN WILL TAKE PLACE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE...FOCUS AND TRACK OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT...CONFINING ANY ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF THUNDER AND PRECIP TO UPPER MICHIGAN FOR MOST OF MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT MAY ACTUALLY PUSH FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD BY MONDAY EVENING FOR DRY WX ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND NEARLY FULL SUN WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...EVEN TO NEAR 100 IN DOWNSLOPE WIND AREAS IN NE LOWER MICHIGAN IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY HUMID AS WELL WITH SFC DWPTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S...PUSHING HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT TIMES. THE ONLY POTENTIAL LIMITATION TO REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS IF WE MAINTAIN ENOUGH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER VIA DYING UPSTREAM MCS DURING THE DAY TO HOLD SOLAR HEATING SOMEWHAT AT BAY. WILL THEREFORE NOT ISSUE THE ADVISORY JUST YET AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER ANALYSIS BY THE EVENING AND/OR MID SHIFT AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S LATE MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS BRING THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT INTO ERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN SAG THE FRONT THRU NRN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS TIMING MAY BE A BIT RUSHED AS I THINK DAYTIME HEATING MAY SLOW THE SE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...AND EVOLUTION THAT IS NOT RARE THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS ALIGNED IN A NARROW BAND ALONG AND THE FRONT. THUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND LOWER 90S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN. ARRIVAL OF FRONT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND BRING CHANCES OF PRECIP BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL TRY TO CRUDELY TIME THIS...PUSHING CHANCE POPS INTO FAR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING TUESDAY MORNING...AND THE INTO THE REST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER 18Z. CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER OUR AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER SURFACE LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPSTREAM DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THRU CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY DROP SE OUT OF MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THRU...AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT AND AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NRN LAKES BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND PLEASANT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND ONLY FOR UPPER MICHIGAN AS A WEAK FRONT MOVING THRU CANADA CLIPS THE AREA. && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1221 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006 .UPDATE...STRONG MCS CONTINUES TO ROLL DOWN INTO SW LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING WITH THE BULK OF THE SEVERE WEATHER MISSING NRN MICHIGAN ALTOGETHER. KAPX RADAR SHOWING WHAT APPEARS TO BE OUTFLOW OR AT LEAST SOME SORT OF CONNECTION WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE OFF TO THE SOUTH...RUNNING UP THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS LINE AS IT PRESSES EASTWARD. A FEW OF THESE STORMS GOT INTERESTING EARLIER IN THE MORNING AS THEY CROSSED NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...PROMPTING A FEW WARNINGS. STORMS WERE LIKELY FED WITH WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW PUNCHING MORE UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS NRN WI INTO THE BACK END OF THE STORMS. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...LAPS ANALYSIS COMPUTING 500-1500 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE...BUT CAPPED TO SFC BASED CONVECTION WITH UPWARDS OF 150 J/KG OF CINH AS SFC TEMPS STILL STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 70S. HOWEVER...MORNING GRB/APX SOUNDINGS REVEALING DECENT INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH AROUND 1500 J/KG WHEN LIFTED FROM 850 MB. SO STORMS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN STILL ELEVATED AT THIS POINT. FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE INSTABILITY ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIN BAND OF SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/THUNDER DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW AS IT PRESSES EASTWARD. THEN...BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCS...EXPECT TO GET SOME THINNING/CLEARING N-S ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT SFC TEMPS CAN REBOUND ENOUGH TO ERODE AWAY THE SFC BASED CAPPING AND GET ADDITIONAL STORMS TO FIRE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN JUST HOW THIS WILL PAN OUT SO WILL LEAVE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS GOING FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. ADAM && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006 DISCUSSION...04Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A MONSTER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE EXTREME NORTHEAST US. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING LIES ACROSS SD/MN/WI AND TURNS QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL MI/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MN/WI IN A REGION OF 850MB THETAE ADVECTION FROM A WEAK 20KT LLJ. 925-850MB MUCAPE RANGES FROM ABOUT 800 J/KG OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI/WI...TO WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OVER MINNESOTA WITH THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT TO THE SE. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT FORMED INTO A FULL FLEDGED MCS AS OF YET...AND ITS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THIS WILL HAPPEN GIVEN THE WEAK LLJ. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS HOVER AROUND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD MAKE IT INTO THE CWA...THEN TURN TO POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. TODAY...NORTHERN WI THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEAKENING WITH TIME AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST DUE TO WEAKENING INFLOW (AND INSTABILITY) FROM THE LLJ. WITH THIS MOTION...HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING UPSTREAM CONVECTION HAS MUCH OF A CHANCE OF MAKING IT INTO THE CWA WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WAA OVER WESTERN WI/NORTHERN LAKE MI UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...WHEN THE LLJ VEERS AND THE 850MB THETAE GRADIENT GETS A LITTLE CLOSER. DONT EXPECT MORE THAN A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS/ISOLD -TSRA OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SW CWA...WITH THE MOSTLY LIKELY SCENARIO JUST BEING MIDLEVEL CLOUD REMNANTS THAT WILL SLOW HEATING SOMEWHAT. THEN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL LOWER RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS PRETTY WEAK AS WELL AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT. FEEL THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANYTHING TO DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE ALONG LAKE BREEZES WITH ONLY 5-10KT 950 WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. BEST CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH 5KT SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW COLLIDING WITH THE LAKE BREEZE OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A PARCEL 84/67 YIELDS MLCAPE/CINH OF ABOUT 1000/-50 J/KG...STILL QUITE A BIT OF INHIBITION TO OVERCOME...BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ENOUGH INLAND PENETRATION TO SEE THE LAKE BREEZES COLLIDE. ADDITIONALLY...ACROSS NE LOWER...A PARCEL OF 88/69 YIELDS MLCAPE/CINH OF 1800/-1 J/KG (VERY LITTLE CINH OVER MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER) ALBEIT WITH A LITTLE WEAKER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON HOW MUCH UPSTREAM CONVECTION WORKS OVER THE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP EASTERN UPPER A 30 POP FOR THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE CINH AND UP NORTHERN LOWER TO 40 POP WITH NO CINH...LAKE BREEZE/OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EFFECTS...BUT DAY CREW MAY HAVE TO ADJUST DEPENDING ON WHERE BEST CONVERGENCE IS SETTING UP WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION. IN TERMS OF ORGANIZATION...0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE RANGE OF 27.5-35KTS SUPPORTS SOME MULTICELL ORGANIZATION WITH HIGH WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH FREEZING LEVELS OVER 15KFT. MPC LATER PERIODS...STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH MCS POTENTIAL TONIGHT/MAYBE EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES IN EARNEST...PUSHING WESTERLY BELT TO THE NORTH. NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE A POP-UP STORM EVEN AFTER THAT...BUT MAIN ISSUE FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY IS JUST HOW HOT/HUMID WILL IT GET. MODELS...NAM IS SOMEWHAT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUMPING UP THE RIDGE INTO THE LAKES REGION MONDAY/TUESDAY. THIS IS PERHAPS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE GFS BEING FURTHER SOUTH WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THUS THE GFS HAVING A SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN ONTARIO INSTEAD OF HUDSON BAY. GFS SOLUTION LOOKS A LITTLE STRANGE GIVEN THE RIDGE AXIS POKING IN FROM THE SOUTH... PREFER THE NAM. TONIGHT...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOMETHING NOCTURNAL TO TAKE A RUN AT US FROM THE WNW. IT DIDN/T HAPPEN LAST NIGHT (AS EXPECTED)...AND IS STRUGGLING TO HAPPEN THIS MORNING (LESS EXPECTED). COULD STILL BE LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE TO START THE EVENING. FOCUS FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES...AND AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WEST OF LAKES GETS MOVING NORTHWARD. MUCH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO WORK OFF OF TONIGHT...WITH 30-40KT 850MB WINDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS POINTING AT SUPERIOR. NAM/GFS BOTH PLACE UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OVER NE MN/WESTERN SUPERIOR...MOVING EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY TURNING TO RIGHT A BIT AS MCS PROPAGATES AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS CLEARLY FAVORS EASTERN UPPER MI AND PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI. MET/MAV BOTH SPIT OUT LIKELY POPS AT THE SAULT...BUT AM RELUCTANT TO GO THAT FAR AFTER HOW THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE GONE. THERE/S DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY THAT ANY MCS STAYS COMPLETELY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WILL BOOST POPS A BIT TO SCT IN MUCH OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY. A DIRECT HIT BY AN RIGHT-TURNING MCS WOULD CLEARLY BRING A SUBSTANTIAL SVR THREAT...AS 500MB WINDS ARE NEAR 50KT. FURTHER SOUTH...MODEL SOUNDINGS TAKE AN INTERESTING LOOK VERY LATE...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AROUND A BIT AND INCREASES INTO NORTHERN LOWER. 900-700MB LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY...WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING AS WELL (PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES). WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM VERY LATE INTO MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER. MONDAY...THAT SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM WILL CARRY OVER INTO VERY EARLY MONDAY IN PARTS OF NE LOWER MI. ANY ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER IS THE ONLY THING THAT STANDS IN THE WAY OF A DANGEROUSLY HOT DAY. WARM FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OR ONLY MAKE SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS THRU SOUTHERN SUPERIOR AND CENTRAL/EASTER UPPER. KEEPING CHANCE POPS UP THAT WAY STILL LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR THE WHOLE DAY...FOR ANY DYING MCS IN THE AM AND REDEVELOPMENT IN THE PM. TO THE SOUTH...AFTER THE BRIEF THETA-E SURGE JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...SUB-700MB LAYER DRIES CONSIDERABLY DURING THE MORNING. WE HAVE INSTABILITY TO GET BY +11-12C 700MB TEMPS...BUT +20C AT 800MB WILL BE THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL OBSTACLE. IN ADDITION...BREEZY SW LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY BOUNDARIES IN NORTHERN LOWER MI (UNLESS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION TONIGHT GETS THIS FAR SOUTH...WHICH DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY). SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE DAY DRY IN NORTHERN LOWER. TEMPS...HOW MUCH MORNING CLOUDS MIGHT CUT INTO HEATING IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE NAM (WHICH HAS MORE MOISTURE) HAS TONED THINGS DOWN A BIT...MAINLY LOW TO MID 90S. THE GFS...SPITTING OUT 101F FOR TVC... DIFFERS. THOUGH IN GENERAL THE NAM IS PREFERRED...IN THIS CASE WILL COMPROMISE CLOSER TO THE GFS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE IN NW LOWER MI...WHERE ANY CLOUDS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND ONLY INTERFERE WITH THE VERY EARLY STAGES OF THE HEATING CYCLE. THUS EARLIER FORECAST OF MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WILL NOT BE ADJUSTED DRASTICALLY. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 71-73F RANGE SUPPORT HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TRIPLE DIGITS. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER MI. EASTERN UPPER WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER (WELL...LESS WARM ANYWAYS) WITH HIGHS NEAR 90. MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WITH A LONG TRAILING COLD FRONT MAKING SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS WESTERN SUPERIOR BEFORE LAYING OVER ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTION FIRING NEAR THE FRONT UPSTREAM WILL REMAIN A THREAT TO EASTERN UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING WHILE E-W BOUNDARY REMAINS WELL DEFINED. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE BRIDGE...DRY SOUTH. A VERY WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY LOWER/MID 70S. MAV GUIDANCE MIN OF 79 AT TVC APPEARS TOO WARM GIVEN LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MIGHT MAKE IT AS FAR AS EASTERN UPPER BEFORE STALLING AS A SURFACE LOW EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE FOCUSED NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR EASTERN UPPER AND PERHAPS THE STRAITS. WITH THE 500MB RIDGE ENTRENCHED FOR ANOTHER DAY OVERHEAD...THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN DRY AND SCORCHING. MID/UPPER 90S STILL WORKS FOR NORTHERN LOWER...UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EASTERN UPPER...WITH DEW POINTS/ HEAT INDICES SIMILAR TO MONDAY. NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS. ZOLTOWSKI && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1125 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006 .DISCUSSION... RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MOST OF CONVECTION IS FIRING ALL AROUND UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH ONLY THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. AM CONCERNED THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TO MAINLY MIDDLE 80S. ALSO WOULD EXPECT CAPE TO THEREFORE BE REDUCED AND 12Z NAM AND LATEST RUC OUTPUT HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY...BUT STILL SHOW 2K TO 3K J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...IF NOT A BIT MORE. VISIBLE SATELLITE DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL CLEARING UPSTREAM...BUT WITH CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD WOULD EXPECT RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS. SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STORMS ARE SEVERE BUT KDLH RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT DIMINISHING TREND AS THEY MOVE OVER THE LAKE. THE SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE FOR SUPERCELLS BASED ON BRN SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY FIELDS...AND ALTHOUGH THE FREEZING LEVELS ARE HIGH ANY OF THE STRONGER ROTATING STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN AS RECENT RAINFALL HAS LEFT THE GROUND SOMEWHAT MOIST...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS EXISTS BASED ON PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MN TO CENTRAL LAKE MI. WILL HAVE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE REDUCED A BIT BASED ON THE EXISTING CLOUD COVER AND UPSTREAM TRENDS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ LAROSA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1010 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006 .DISCUSSION... CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST MS HAS FINALLY LOST STEAM. ASSOCIATED STRATIFORM RAIN REGION IS LAGGING BACK FROM INITIAL GUST FRONT...AND CONTINUES TO WET GROUND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR. STORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE ARE VERY ISOLATED AND ARE NO LONGER DEEMED CAPABLE OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER. HAVE NOTICED A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP NORTH OF THE DYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN MS. THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATES INTO MS IN A CLOCKWISE DIRECTION AROUND A RIDGE CENTERED IN THE PLAINS. UPDATED THE POP FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND EXPECTATIONS. ALSO TWEAKS CLOUD COVER, WIND AND TEMPS FIELDS...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. NEW GRIDS AND ZONES OUT. /BB/ && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MERGER OF TWO THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OCCURRED IN THE VICINITY OF CLARKE COUNTY IN SE MS A LITTLE EARLIER. SUBSEQUENT COMBINATION OF CONVECTION IS RATHER VIGOROUS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DOWN THE I-59 CORRIDOR...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND PRODIGIOUS AMOUNTS OF LIGHTNING. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE HATTIESBURG AREA. REST OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA IS PRETTY MUCH NEGLIGIBLE. EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTION TO BE OVER IN SOUTHEAST ZONES WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...RUC IMPLIES 850 MB CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. THIS COULD SPAWN SOME HIGHER BASED...BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS A WIDER AREA LATER ON TONIGHT. NEW ZONES AND GRIDS OUT WITH ANOTHER UPDATE ANTICIPATED BEFORE 10 PM. /BB/ && .AVIATION... LOTS OF WET GROUND ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI WHICH SPELLS POTENTIAL FOR MORNING LOW CLOUD AND FOG PRODUCTION THERE. HOWEVER...DYING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST MS HAS LEFT LOTS OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO DISPERSE. COULD STILL SEE SOME MVFR TO TEMPO IFR VIS REDUCTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED FROM GTR...TO MEI...TO HBG. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH PATCHY MORNING MVFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. /BB/ && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ 50 ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 819 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006 .DISCUSSION... MERGER OF TWO THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OCCURRED IN THE VICINITY OF CLARKE COUNTY IN SE MS A LITTLE EARLIER. SUBSEQUENT COMBINATION OF CONVECTION IS RATHER VIGOROUS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DOWN THE I-59 CORRIDOR...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND PRODIGIOUS AMOUNTS OF LIGHTNING. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE HATTIESBURG AREA. REST OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA IS PRETTY MUCH NEGLIGIBLE. EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTION TO BE OVER IN SOUTHEAST ZONES WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...RUC IMPLIES 850 MB CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. THIS COULD SPAWN SOME HIGHER BASED...BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS A WIDER AREA LATER ON TONIGHT. NEW ZONES AND GRIDS OUT WITH ANOTHER UPDATE ANTICIPATED BEFORE 10 PM. /BB/ && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WEAK DISTURBANCE/CONVECTIVE VORT DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS TRIGGERING LOTS OF CONVECTION RIGHT NOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. CONVECTION ACROSS THE REST OF THE MS REMAINS GENERALLY VERY ISOLATED WITH REMNANT SHOWERS DISSIPATING QUICKLY UP IN AROUND THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING TO PUSH SOUTH ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF THE MS/AL STATELINE WHILE MOST OTHER ACTIVITY REMAINS ISOLATED OR NON-EXISTENT. ML CAPE VALUES PRECEDING CONVECTION ARE UP ABOVE 2000 J/KG GENERALLY...SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME STRONG STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UPDATED 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO REFLECT THINKING IN TERMS OF PRECIP COVERAGE. THINK THAT MOST ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WIND DOWN BY 8 OR 9 PM...BUT THE PRESENCE OF MENTIONED DISTURBANCE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE MS ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT. NEW ZONES AND GRIDS COMING OUT WITH ANOTHER UPDATE ANTICIPATED LATER ON THIS EVENING. /BB/ && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ 50 ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1215 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006 .UPDATE... NEAR IDENTICAL SCENARIO FROM YESTERDAY NOW FACING US WITH REGARDS TO PCPN CHANCES...ONLY WITH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER E INTO THE ERN FA...AS NOTED WITH MOST OB SITES COMING IN WITH SW-WSW SFC WINDS AND KENL AND KSLO WITH SLY WINDS. LITTLE/NO CINH AND MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS LINGERING OVER THE ERN FA AND ADDITIONAL POSSIBILITY OF BOUNDARY FROM MCS OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN REACHING THE ERN EXTREMITIES OF THE FA BY EARLY THIS EVENING ALL POINTS TO ENHANCED PCPN CHANCES IN SWRN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL BUMP POPS UP IN THIS AREA TO CHANCE CATEGORY. TO A LESSER EXTENT...MAY SEE TSRA IN THE ERN OZARKS...AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE THRU EARLY THIS EVENING THERE. WITH MAIN FOCUSING MECHANISM E OF THE STL METRO AND OTHER AREAS...BELIEVE WE WILL AVOID PCPN TODAY. 4K-5K CAPES...AND WEAK SHEAR REGIME...WILL ALLOW ANY TSRA THAT DO FORM TO QUICKLY DEVELOP INTO PULSE SEVERE...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF EVOLUTION INTO A SMALL ORGANIZED SYSTEM. REGARDING TEMPS...KCOU/KJEF ALREADY 2F AHEAD OF THEIR PROLIFIC PACE YESTERDAY...AND WITH EVEN WARMER H850 TEMPS...ABOUT 2C HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MOST PLACES...AND LOWER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING FROM THE W...SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 100F+ MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MODIFIED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. TES && .DISCUSSION... CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CURRENTLY ON THE SERN EDGE OF THE CWA ATTM. LATEST RUC ANLYS SHOWS STG 850 MB MOISTURE CNVG ON THE SWRN EDGE OF THIS SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THESE STORMS ARE ALSO AHD OF A WK VORT MAX OR MCV. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY SE OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUN. WILL CONT EXCESSIVE HT WRNG WHICH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WHICH WILL BGN THIS AFTN FOR THE ERN AND SRN PTNS OF THE CWA. A TYPICAL HOT SUMMERTIME WX PATTERN WILL BE OVR THE REGION WITH A MID LVL RDG CURRENTLY EXTDG FM ERN TX N-NE THRU MO WHICH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOW LVL S-SWLY FLOW WILL CONT WITH SFC/850 MB RDG JUST SE OF THE CWA. MOS GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS APR A TAD LOW. WITH LESS CLOUD CVR TDA PLAN TO FCST A DGR OR TWO ABV PERSISTANCE THIS AFTN. SHOULD ONLY BE FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DVLPG LT THIS MRNG OR EARLY THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT APR TO BE ANY FRCG FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTN...NAM MDL DOES DEPICT SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVR THE ERN AND SRN PTN OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. MAY INCLUDE A VRY LOW POP TDA MAINLY E AND S OF THE STL METRO AREA. THERE SHOULD BE BETTER CAPPING OVR THE NWRN PTN OF THE CWA TDA. BASED ON 700 MB TEMP FCST IT APRS THAT THE CAPPING OVR THE CWA WILL BE STGR ON MON WITH PROBABLY ONLY FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS. WILL CONT WITH FCST HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 90S FOR MON AND TUE ACRS THE CWA. MDLS CONT TO FCST 850 MB TEMPS ARND 22-24 DGRS C ACRS THE CWA. GKS && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS...OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA...WILL PREVAIL THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. BELIEVE ANY TSRA THAT DO FORM WILL REMAIN E AND S OF KSTL/KSUS TERMINALS DUE TO LOCATION OF BOUNDARY BEING OVER SWRN IL ATTM. WLY SFC WINDS AOB 10KTS FOR THE TAF SITES TODAY EXPECTED TO BACK SSW OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN...ONLY TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN TO SWLY AROUND 10KTS ON MONDAY. TES && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CRAWFORD- IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE- WASHINGTON. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUDRAIN- BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN- MONITEAU-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-WARREN. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KNOX-LEWIS- MARION-MONROE-PIKE-RALLS-SHELBY. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ST. CHARLES- ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY. IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BOND IL- CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL- MONTGOMERY IL-RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CALHOUN IL- JERSEY IL-MONROE IL. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MADISON IL- ST. CLAIR IL. && $$ WFO LSX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 655 AM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006 .DISCUSSION... CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CURRENTLY ON THE SERN EDGE OF THE CWA ATTM. LATEST RUC ANLYS SHOWS STG 850 MB MOISTURE CNVG ON THE SWRN EDGE OF THIS SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THESE STORMS ARE ALSO AHD OF A WK VORT MAX OR MCV. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY SE OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUN. WILL CONT EXCESSIVE HT WRNG WHICH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WHICH WILL BGN THIS AFTN FOR THE ERN AND SRN PTNS OF THE CWA. A TYPICAL HOT SUMMERTIME WX PATTERN WILL BE OVR THE REGION WITH A MID LVL RDG CURRENTLY EXTDG FM ERN TX N-NE THRU MO WHICH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOW LVL S-SWLY FLOW WILL CONT WITH SFC/850 MB RDG JUST SE OF THE CWA. MOS GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS APR A TAD LOW. WITH LESS CLOUD CVR TDA PLAN TO FCST A DGR OR TWO ABV PERSISTANCE THIS AFTN. SHOULD ONLY BE FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DVLPG LT THIS MRNG OR EARLY THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT APR TO BE ANY FRCG FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTN...NAM MDL DOES DEPICT SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVR THE ERN AND SRN PTN OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. MAY INCLUDE A VRY LOW POP TDA MAINLY E AND S OF THE STL METRO AREA. THERE SHOULD BE BETTER CAPPING OVR THE NWRN PTN OF THE CWA TDA. BASED ON 700 MB TEMP FCST IT APRS THAT THE CAPPING OVR THE CWA WILL BE STGR ON MON WITH PROBABLY ONLY FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS. WILL CONT WITH FCST HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 90S FOR MON AND TUE ACRS THE CWA. MDLS CONT TO FCST 850 MB TEMPS ARND 22-24 DGRS C ACRS THE CWA. GKS && .AVIATION... FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. LOOKS LIKE THE MOST UNSTABLE AREAS WILL BE SOUTH OF I-70. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS PT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CRAWFORD-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS- STE. GENEVIEVE-WASHINGTON. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUDRAIN- BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN- MONITEAU-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-WARREN. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KNOX-LEWIS- MARION-MONROE-PIKE-RALLS-SHELBY. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ST. CHARLES- ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY. IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BOND IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL- MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-MONTGOMERY IL-RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CALHOUN IL- JERSEY IL-MONROE IL. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MADISON IL- ST. CLAIR IL. && $$ WFO LSX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 905 PM MDT SUN JUL 30 2006 .UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. WESTERN AREAS CERTAINLY LOOK MOST FAVORED ATTM...WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLY BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE TO THE REAR OF 30KT 250 MB JET MAX...AS PER RUC ANALYSIS. STILL SOME HOPE FOR MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS DECENT SRLY FLOW UP VALLEY INTERACTS WITH CURRENT CONVECTION SOUTH OF JEMEZ...BUT DID LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY. MADE BIGGEST CHANGES TO THE EAST WHERE IT DOES NOT APPEAR MUCH WILL BE GOING ON OVERNIGHT. BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER FAR SE NM...OUTSIDE CWFA...KD && .PREV DISCUSSION...250 PM MDT SUN JUL 30 2006 UPR LVL LOW NOW CENTERED EXACTLY OVER THE CENTER OF THE STATE...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ALMOST ALL QUADRANTS OF THE STATE EXCEPT RIGHT IN THE CENTER. NOT MUCH MORE TO SAY TODAY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. UPR LOW CONTINUES TO BE STUBBORN ABOUT MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. MODELS FINALLY MOVE IN OUT PERHAPS TONIGHT...BUT IT IS REPLACED WITH ANOTHER TROF/UPR LVL LOW DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. MOSTLY LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE A SMALL DRYING TREND MOVES INTO THE FORECAST BY LATE WEEK...16 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 19 nm AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 755 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006 .SHORT TERM... RUC SNDG STILL SHOWS A CHC AT ELM OF BREAKING THE CAP TODAY SO LEFT A SLGT CHC (ISOLD) TSTM OVR WRN ZONES INTO THIS EVENING. SFC FRONT HAS BROUGHT DRIER AIR INTO NERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER HI PRES TNGT. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS WITH THIS TREND ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE SRN TIER AND WRN CATSKILLS. MAY GET SOME HI CLOUDS TONIGHT OVR WRN ZONES FROM CONVECTION MOVING DOWN FROM MICHIGAN INTO OHIO. ALSO SOME OF THE BUFKIT SNDGS ARE SHOWING SOME SATURATION ARND 3K AND LOOKING UPSTREAM INTO ONTARIO ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE CLOUDS WOULD COME IN OVER NIGHT INTO OUR NRN AND WRN ZONES. -BMW FNTL BNDRY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH BACK EWD AS A WMFNT ON MON, FOLLOWED BY HOT TEMPS AND HIGH TD'S. HEAT INDICES FOR TUES MAX OUT IN THE 105-110F RANGE (WARNING CRITERIA). TUES NGT LOOKS MISERABLE WITH LOWS ONLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE M70S MOST AREAS. MAXES ON WED COULD BE A FEW DEG COOLER BUT WE STILL GET HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F. GIVEN THIS, WE HOISTED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH STARTING LATE TUES MRNG THRU WED AFTN. TUFF TO TIME ANY S/WV'S WHICH COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTNL, BUT BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE OVER NRN/CNTRL ZONES LATER MON AFTN AND MON EVNG AS POTNL MCS DIVES SEWD WITH A 500 MB S/WV AND THE FNTL BNDRY IN VCNTY. HOWEVER, WE COULD SEE AN MCS ANYWHERE IN THE BGM FCST AREA, AT ANY TIME, GIVEN THIS PTRN. FOR NOW, GIVEN MDL INDICATIONS OF VERY LTL FORCING TUES, WE PLAYED SLGT CHC POPS. POTNLY A LTL MORE INTERESTING ON WED, BUT FOR NOW WENT WITH SLGT CHC POPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. .LONG TERM... DEVIATED VERY LTL FROM HPC GUIDANCE. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND STORMY WEATHER WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A (POTNLY ACTIVE) CDFNTL PSSG LATER IN THE WEEK. SOME DIFFS IN THE DETAILS AS TO HOW FAST THE FNT CLEARS SE ZONES. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOLLOWS THE FNT...WITH NXT WEEKEND LOOKING VERY NICE AT THIS POINT. .AVIATION (31/00Z TO 01/00Z).. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THROUGH LATE TONIGHT EXPECT SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WITH BKN/OVC CIRRUS. AFTER 08Z THROUGH MID MORNING, DEBRIS FROM A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA. ATTM NO PRECIP EXPECTED BUT SCT CLOUDS AT 4K FT AND CIGS AROUND 12K FT LIKELY. FOR KELM/KAVP, MVFR FOG POSSIBLE BTW 09Z-12Z. BY LATE MORNING SKIES WILL IMPROVE TO SCATTERED CUMULUS FOLLOWED BY LATE PERIOD BKN CU AND CB MENTIONED FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION. RRM && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TUES AND WED ALL ZONES. .PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TUES AND WED ALL ZONES. $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 935 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006 .UPDATE... FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY TONIGHT. TR.92 && .AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAF FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARY CHALLENGE IS THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF POSSIBE MORNING STRATUS. BELIEVE BEST CHANCES WILL EXIST AT KACT...WHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH BKN020 FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. STRATUS AT DFW TRACON TAF SITES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT BELIEVE BEST CHANCES EXIST EAST OF THIS AREA. WILL INSERT SCT025 AT KDFW AND KDAL BETWEEN 12Z-15Z BASED ON RUC RH FORECASTS. 07/BB && .350 PM CDT DISCUSSION... THE ETA MODEL CONTINUOUS TO SHOW A SUBTLE COOLING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...IN THE 1000 TO 850 MB HEIGHT...OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. I HAVE SEEN THIS IN THE PAST...AND TYPICALLY THE ETA IS RIGHT. THE RESULT USUALLY IS THAT SOME LOW LEVEL COOLING OCCURS...AT LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS. BECAUSE OF THIS...WE HAVE LOWERED THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THE GFS MOS. THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COOL LATELY...ESPECIALLY WITH DAY TIME HIGHS. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURE THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK...WE ARE STILL A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS. WE LEFT THE LOW POPS IN PLACE YESTERDAY. THIS WAS IN SPITE OF THE MODELS OF 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH KEPT THE WEAK COOL FRONT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AT THE END OF THE COMING WEEK...AFTER BRINGING IT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER 48 HOURS AGO. TODAY'S MODELS AGAIN SHOW THE FRONT COMING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...POSSIBLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE THIS WEEK. WE HAVE LOW POPS...FIRST NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...WE WILL HAVE A CONCURRENT WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING EVER SO SLOWLY FROM WEST TEXAS AT THE SAME TIME...AND POSSIBLY SOME AFTERNOON "SEA BREEZE" THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. (THIS PROBABLY IS RELATED TO THE WEAK LOW LEVEL COOLING BY THE ETA...WHICH USUALLY IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.) BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS...WE HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 78 98 78 96 / 0 0 0 0 WACO, TX 77 97 77 96 / 10 10 10 10 PARIS, TX 74 97 74 96 / 0 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 77 98 78 96 / 0 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 76 98 77 95 / 0 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 80 98 79 96 / 0 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 77 97 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 77 96 76 95 / 10 10 10 10 TEMPLE, TX 75 94 75 94 / 10 10 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ /26 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 620 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006 .AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAF FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARY CHALLENGE IS THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF POSSIBE MORNING STRATUS. BELIEVE BEST CHANCES WILL EXIST AT KACT...WHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH BKN020 FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. STRATUS AT DFW TRACON TAF SITES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT BELIEVE BEST CHANCES EXIST EAST OF THIS AREA. WILL INSERT SCT025 AT KDFW AND KDAL BETWEEN 12Z-15Z BASED ON RUC RH FORECASTS. 07/BB && .350 PM CDT DISCUSSION... THE ETA MODEL CONTINUOUS TO SHOW A SUBTLE COOLING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...IN THE 1000 TO 850 MB HEIGHT...OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. I HAVE SEEN THIS IN THE PAST...AND TYPICALLY THE ETA IS RIGHT. THE RESULT USUALLY IS THAT SOME LOW LEVEL COOLING OCCURS...AT LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS. BECAUSE OF THIS...WE HAVE LOWERED THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THE GFS MOS. THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COOL LATELY...ESPECIALLY WITH DAY TIME HIGHS. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURE THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK...WE ARE STILL A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS. WE LEFT THE LOW POPS IN PLACE YESTERDAY. THIS WAS IN SPITE OF THE MODELS OF 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH KEPT THE WEAK COOL FRONT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AT THE END OF THE COMING WEEK...AFTER BRINGING IT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER 48 HOURS AGO. TODAY'S MODELS AGAIN SHOW THE FRONT COMING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...POSSIBLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE THIS WEEK. WE HAVE LOW POPS...FIRST NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...WE WILL HAVE A CONCURRENT WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING EVER SO SLOWLY FROM WEST TEXAS AT THE SAME TIME...AND POSSIBLY SOME AFTERNOON "SEA BREEZE" THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. (THIS PROBABLY IS RELATED TO THE WEAK LOW LEVEL COOLING BY THE ETA...WHICH USUALLY IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.) BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS...WE HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 78 98 78 96 / 0 0 0 0 WACO, TX 77 97 77 96 / 10 10 10 10 PARIS, TX 74 97 74 96 / 0 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 77 98 78 96 / 0 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 76 98 77 95 / 0 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 80 98 79 96 / 0 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 77 97 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 77 96 76 95 / 10 10 10 10 TEMPLE, TX 75 94 75 94 / 10 10 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ /26 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1003 AM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006 .UPDATE... UPPED THE POPS ABOUT 10 PERCENT FOR THE INLAND COUNTIES. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED LESS CAP THAN YESTERDAY -- COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE EVIDENT AT 700 MB ON THE CRP AND LCH SOUNDINGS AND THE NAM BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE MID LEVEL WAVE/CIRCULATION OVER THE GULF WAS TREKKING WESTWARD BUT SHOULD NOT REALLY AFFECT THE SE TX LAND AREAS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AT THE EARLIEST...AND IF THE MODEL DATA IS ON TRACK...MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM WAS FAIRLY DRY FOR TODAY WHILE THE RUC AND THE GFS WERE CRANKING OUT PLENTY OF QPF OUTPUT. WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALL THAT IS NEEDED IS A LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY. THE RADAR DATA SHOWED AN OUTFLOW PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD THE GULF AT 13Z. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS ACTIVITY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SEABREEZE WAS ALREADY GETTING ACTIVE OVER JACKSON AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES AT 1430Z AND EXPECT IT TO START BY MIDDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET THINGS GOING FURTHER INLAND...AND COUPLING THE SEABREEZE WITH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THESE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL SET OF COUNTIES. WENT WITH ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES... SCATTERD POPS OVER THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR OF COUNTIES...AND UPPER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES POP VALUES FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT. PL-40 && .AVIATION... A LITTLE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE SEEN MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WATER AND EARLY DEVELOPING CU OVER LAND. EXPECT SOMEWHAT HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SEA BREEZE GETS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON. MIGHT WARRANT SOME VCTS TO START WITH HOU-IAH AND SCT CB ELSEWHERE. ST CLL AREA SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY 18Z. THE USUAL DISSIPATION BY SUNSET IS ANTICIPATED. 30 && .MARINE... LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH SMOOTH BAYS AND MINIMAL SEAS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. ONLY CHANGE WILL BE MENTIONING OF POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS IN THE THE SYNOPSIS AS SOUNDINGS SHOW IDEAL SETUP FOR SAME. 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 130 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR IN HAZE. A DIP IN VISBYS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH HAZE/LIGHT FOG IN MANY AREAS...AND THE POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN FOR DENSE FOG ACRS RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. PRECIP POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY LOW THRU THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD STORMS FIRE LATE THIS AFTN WITH APPROACHING WEAK WAVE...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACRS THE WEST DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF REMNANTS OF MCS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES. HOT DAY TOMORROW AS UPR RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVR THE REGION...WITH LIGHT WIND SCATTERED CU DURING THE AFTN...ALONG WITH ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLD STORM ACRS THE RIDGES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1020 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006) SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES. MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS REMNANTS OF YESTERDAYS WAVE OFF THE NC COAST...WITH SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING THROUGH PA INTO NORTHERN WV. THIS FEATURE IN COMBO WITH MID-LEVEL ISTABILITY HELPING KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACRS WEST VIRGINIA...JUST WEST OF THE CWA THUS FAR. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED SMALL POPS FOR SOUTHEAST WV SHOULD A FEW SHOWERS SNEAK DOWN THAT WAY...BUT EXPECT THE BETTER POTENTIAL (ALTHOUGH STILL SMALL) WILL BE THIS AFTN. CLDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN LIGHT UPSLOPE REGIME...HOWEVER LATE JULY SUN DOING ITS WORK AND CLDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX OUT...ALTHOUGH LIKELY REPLACED IN MANY AREAS BY SCATTERED/POSSIBLY BROKEN CU THIS AFTN. 12Z RNK/GSO RAOBS SHOW DECENT MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION PER PASSAGE OF WAVE YESTERDAY...AND EXPECT THIS MAY BE A MITIGATING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM RAOBS CLOSER TO PASSAGE OF UPR WAVE SHOW ENOUGH COOLING TO OVERCOME CAP AND THIS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN VA SHOULD AID IN ISOLD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN ACRS THE NRN CWA. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY INCOMING WRF/RUC GUIDANCE. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL ISOLD STORMS FIRE IN WARM/FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS...ALTHOUGH LIKELY CONFINED TO THE RIDGES AND THESE WILL BE FIGHTING NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. GOING TEMPS LOOK GOOD THIS AFTN...ALTHOUGH THICKNESS PARAMETERS FROM 12Z RAOBS SUPPORT NUMBERS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACRS THE PIEDMONT WHERE HAVE RAISED A TAD GIVEN LIKELY DOWNSLOPE COMING INTO PLAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS FOR AFFECT A PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WEAKNESS ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF BUILDING UPR RIDGE APPROACHING THE AREA IN COMBO WITH OLD OUTFLOW FROM MASSIVE MCS PASSING THRU WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK UPON FULL ARRIVAL OF 12Z GUIDANCE. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 641 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006) AVIATION... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN TODAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THRU THE MORNING HOURS WITH VFR CONDS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. IN THE EAST THINK VSBYS AND CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTN/EVE CONVECTION WILL BE WIDELY SCTD. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 207 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006) SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GOING INTO A RATHER TRANQUIL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. YDAYS SHORTWAVE IS OVER EASTERN NC AND MOVING AWAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN ARND THE ADVANCING RIDGE INTO PA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH TODAY AND WILL TRIGGER SOME WIDELY SCTD CONVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AFTER TODAY UPR RIDGE WILL STRENGHTHEN OVERHEAD AND SHUD CAP CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY...MAINLY IN THE WEST...THRU WED. UPR RIDGE WILL BRING WITH IT VERY WARM TEMPS WITH MOST PLACES PUSHING INTO THE 90S IN THE AFTN. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS (105) IN THE PIEDMONT BY TUESDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ LAWRENCE va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1020 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES. MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS REMNANTS OF YESTERDAYS WAVE OFF THE NC COAST...WITH SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING THROUGH PA INTO NORTHERN WV. THIS FEATURE IN COMBO WITH MID-LEVEL ISTABILITY HELPING KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACRS WEST VIRGINIA...JUST WEST OF THE CWA THUS FAR. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED SMALL POPS FOR SOUTHEAST WV SHOULD A FEW SHOWERS SNEAK DOWN THAT WAY...BUT EXPECT THE BETTER POTENTIAL (ALTHOUGH STILL SMALL) WILL BE THIS AFTN. CLDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN LIGHT UPSLOPE REGIME...HOWEVER LATE JULY SUN DOING ITS WORK AND CLDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX OUT...ALTHOUGH LIKELY REPLACED IN MANY AREAS BY SCATTERED/POSSIBLY BROKEN CU THIS AFTN. 12Z RNK/GSO RAOBS SHOW DECENT MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION PER PASSAGE OF WAVE YESTERDAY...AND EXPECT THIS MAY BE A MITIGATING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM RAOBS CLOSER TO PASSAGE OF UPR WAVE SHOW ENOUGH COOLING TO OVERCOME CAP AND THIS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN VA SHOULD AID IN ISOLD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN ACRS THE NRN CWA. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY INCOMING WRF/RUC GUIDANCE. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL ISOLD STORMS FIRE IN WARM/FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS...ALTHOUGH LIKELY CONFINED TO THE RIDGES AND THESE WILL BE FIGHTING NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. GOING TEMPS LOOK GOOD THIS AFTN...ALTHOUGH THICKNESS PARAMETERS FROM 12Z RAOBS SUPPORT NUMBERS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACRS THE PIEDMONT WHERE HAVE RAISED A TAD GIVEN LIKELY DOWNSLOPE COMING INTO PLAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS FOR AFFECT A PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WEAKNESS ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF BUILDING UPR RIDGE APPROACHING THE AREA IN COMBO WITH OLD OUTFLOW FROM MASSIVE MCS PASSING THRU WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK UPON FULL ARRIVAL OF 12Z GUIDANCE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 641 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006) AVIATION... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN TODAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THRU THE MORNING HOURS WITH VFR CONDS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. IN THE EAST THINK VSBYS AND CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTN/EVE CONVECTION WILL BE WIDELY SCTD. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 207 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006) SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GOING INTO A RATHER TRANQUIL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. YDAYS SHORTWAVE IS OVER EASTERN NC AND MOVING AWAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN ARND THE ADVANCING RIDGE INTO PA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH TODAY AND WILL TRIGGER SOME WIDELY SCTD CONVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AFTER TODAY UPR RIDGE WILL STRENGHTHEN OVERHEAD AND SHUD CAP CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY...MAINLY IN THE WEST...THRU WED. UPR RIDGE WILL BRING WITH IT VERY WARM TEMPS WITH MOST PLACES PUSHING INTO THE 90S IN THE AFTN. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS (105) IN THE PIEDMONT BY TUESDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ LAWRENCE va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 751 AM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006 .UPDATE... SEVERE MCS OBVIOUSLY MAKING MORE HEADWAY INTO CAP THAT EARLIER THOUGHT. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO REFLECT CERTAINTY OF RAIN THIS MORNING IN NORTHEAST 1/3 CWA. CRAVEN/02 && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006) DISCUSSION... MAIN THEME WILL BE HOT AND HUMID THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AS NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT NOT DUE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IN SHORT TERM...SEVERE MCS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN RIDING ALONG THE EDGE OF SIGNIFICANT 700 MB CAP. HOWEVER...GFS/NAM/RUC ALL HINT ON ISOLATED STORMS EITHER FROM REMNANTS OF MCS CLIPPING MAINLY NORTHEAST PART OF CWA OR FROM ACCAS BOMBS ON TOP OF CAP. THERE WAS A COUPLE OF ATTEMPTS AT THIS EARLIER IN WESTERN PORTION OF CWA AS SOME 50 DBZ ECHOES DID DEVELOP BRIEFLY WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SINCE WARMEST 700 MB TEMPS ARE WEST WENT AHEAD AND LEFT OUT PRECIP FAR WEST AND JUST ISOLATED CENTRAL AND EAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH RADAR LOOKS PRETTY SCARY AS STORMS SURGE SOUTH CURRENTLY...DIFFICULT TO SEE HOW MCS CAN TURN TO FAR SOUTH WITHOUT SUFFERING THE FATE OF THE DEATH CAP WITH +14C OR WARMER AT 700 MB. THUS...EXPECT IT TO RIDE THE ISOTHERMS EAST SOUTHEAST AND STAY JUST NORTH OF CWA. WILL BE A CLOSE CALL THOUGH. WITH SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND LAKE BREEZE LIKELY TODAY WITH WEAK GRADIENT...LEFT COASTAL COUNTIES OUT OF HEAT ADVISORY TODAY BUT WENT AHEAD WITH HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE. EVEN LIMITING DEWPOINTS TO 75 TODAY HAVE SEVERAL HOURS AT OR ABOVE 105 ON THE HEAT INDEX CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. GFS MAV MOS YIELDS 100 DEGREE HEAT ON MONDAY. LOOKING AT 850 MB TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY FOR GFS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE HOW WE COULD GET MUCH ABOVE THE MIDDLE 90S DURING THE EVENT. HOWEVER...MODERATE WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD RESULT IN DOWNSLOPE IN THE COASTAL AREAS MONDAY SO WENT AHEAD WITH UPPER 90S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MAY SEE MORE MIXING OF THE DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IT SHOULD BE HOTTER AND COVER THE 105 HEAT INDEX FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS. GFS AND 18Z DGEX ONLY TEASES THE NORTHERN CWA FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON POPS TUESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL NEARLY 15 C TO ABOUT 10 C FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO LEVELS BUT 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S. FOR NOW WILL ROLL WITH GUIDANCE. MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ052- WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072. HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ046- WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064- WIZ065-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070. $$ MVK/11 - SHORT TERM & AVIATION CRAVEN/02 - LONG TERM wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 424 AM CDT MON JUL 31 2006 .SHORT TERM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CANADIAN BORDER DIED FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PASSED ON AND THE STORMS TRIED TO MOVE INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS. THEY WERE ALSO FED BY THE 750 MB JET THAT HAS SINCE MOVED INTO ONTARIO. STORMS ARE REGENERATING FARTHER WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND WHERE GOOD 250 MB DIVERGENCE IS AND WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE PROVIDING A LITTLE INITIATIVE. AN 850 MB JET IS PROVIDING SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THESE FEATURES ARE ANTICIPATED BY RUC TO BE WEAKER ONCE REACHING EASTERN ND BUT ENOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER THIS MORNING FOR DVL REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKENING. LATER IN THE DAY THE DAYTIME HEATING MAY OVERCOME THE WEAKER CAP OVERLYING IT. BOTH NAM AND GFS DROP THE 700 MB TEMPERATURE 2C BY 18Z...THEN IS ONLY +12C OVER WESTCENTRAL MN BY 00Z. THE ML CAPE SHIFTS EASTWARD QUICKLY TODAY WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH THOUGH A SHORTWAVE TRAILING BEHIND MAY TOUCH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. RETAINED A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS FOR EAST OF RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINK THIS POSSIBILITY WILL MOVE EAST AFTER THAT. PONDERED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR FFM/DTL/PKD AREA ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY ARE STILL AROUND 80F NOW. BUT VEERING WINDS DURING AFTERNOON AND THE 700 MB TEMPERATURE EROSION SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES FROM BECOMING ABSURDLY HIGH. STILL... HEAT INDICES TO APPROACH 105 AND DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. .LONG TERM...MUCH COOLER THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF SEASONAL AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL. THIS IS NO SURPRISE AND LITTLE ADJUSTMENT WAS NECESSARY IN EXTENDED PERIOD. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ GV nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 215 AM MDT MON JUL 31 2006 .DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS THAT UPR RIDGE HAS SLID INTO THE UPR MIDWESTERN STATES...WITH SW FLOW ALOF INCREASING ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AS LONG WAVE TROF MOVS ONSHORE THE WEST COAST. PLENTY OF MID/UPR LVL MONSOON MOISTURE ADVECTING NEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVR WY PRODUCING ISOLD/SCT HI BASED TSTMS ACRS THE WRN CWFA. STRONG CDFNT OVR FAR ERN MT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE WRN ZONES VERY SOON. TDY...CDFNT WILL BLAST THRU THE CWFA PRODUCING A BRIEF PD OF VERY GUSTY WINDS. BOTH NAM/RUC SUGGESTING WINDS UP TO 50KTS JUST OFF THE SFC...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO A FEW HOURS OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS OVR THE USUAL WINDY AREAS OF NWRN SD. THUS...WILL POST A WIND ADVISORY. IN ADDITION...MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE CWFA AND PRODUCE ISOLD TSTMS...BUT WITH LIMITED LO-LVL MOISTURE LITTLE OR NO PCPN WILL REACH THE GROUND. TEMP SPREAD WILL BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES FM WEST TO EAST. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT MID/UPR WAVE CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS. LO LVL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN A BIT LIMITED...BUT NO DOUBT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID/UPR MONSOON MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THERE COULD EVEN BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY/SHEAR INVOF CDFNT TO PRODUCE A FEW SVR STORMS ACRS SCNTRL SD ON TUE. HIGH TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES BLO AVERAGE. WED AND THU...RATHER FLAT RIDGE WILL LEAD TO DRY WX ALONG WITH A SLOW WARM-UP. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE NOWHERE AS WARM AS OUR MOST RECENT HEAT WAVE. EXTENDED...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...PRODUCING NORTH TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. && .FIRE WEATHER...A CDFNT OVR EXTREME ERN MT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TDY PRODUCING A BRIEF PD OF VERY GUSTY WINDS THIS MRNG. SOME AREAS ON THE PLAINS OF NWRN AND W CNTRL SD WILL SEE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS DECREASE THIS AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE WIDE-RANGING...MID 80S ACRS NERN WY AND FAR NWRN SD TO JUST ABOVE 100 IN S CNTRL SD AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. IN ADDITION...PLENTY OF MID/HI LVL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLD HI-BASED TSTMS. SINCE LO-LVL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SOME DRY LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE. ALL THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CRITERIA AGAIN TDY. && UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT TODAY. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MDT TODAY FOR NWRN AND W CNTRL SD. WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT TODAY. && $$ JOHNSON/RUDGE sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 955 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2006 .SYNOPSIS... 13Z WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS IS SHOWING AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. LARGE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND NOW BUILDING EAST INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SEEN SPINNING ACROSS NEW MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS STILL NOTED FROM THE CAROLINA COAST BACK ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NE GOMEX. LONGER WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS ONSHORE ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE HELPING TO PUSH THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE TO THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHEAST WERE IT WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS ALSO IN AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THIS RIDGE DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE REFLECTION UNDER THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WOULD EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN SOME ADDED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND/OR DYNAMICS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SURFACE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND THURSDAY...THE PATTERN BECOME A BIT MORE MUDDLED WITH SEVERAL INDISTINCT TROPICAL WAVES. AT THIS POINT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO HOLD BACK FROM MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...LATE MORNING INTO EVENING HOURS. 12Z KTLH SOUNDING SHOWING THE COLUMN BELOW AROUND 600 MB TO STILL BE QUITE MOIST. MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING THAT HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CAN BE SEEN ABOVE GENERALLY 650MB. TIMEHEIGHT ANALYSIS ACROSS THE AREA AGREE ON KEEPING THIS DRIER AIR CONFINED ABOVE 600 MB THROUGH THE DAY. MODIFYING THE MORNING SOUNDING TO AN AFTERNOON MEAN SURFACE OF 92/69 YIELDS AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE...AND LI OF -4C AND PW VALUES OF APPROX 1.9"-2.0" (110%-115% OF NORMAL). THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AND A LACK OF MORNING CLOUDS NOT HOLDING BACK DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. WITH THE THERMODYNAMICS FROM THE MORNING SOUNDING NOTED ABOVE...THE AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE...SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...AND EVEN A FEW RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY'S ACTIVITY...FEEL GOING 40%-50% POPS WILL WORK OUT. HOWEVER...AWAY FROM THE COAST IT MAY BE A LATER START TO THE CONVECTION THAN HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. && .MARINE... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE IN THIS POSITION...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND AS USUAL...WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. LATER THIS WEEK (THURSDAY OR FRIDAY)...A POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MAY BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...AS WELL AS INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS. IN THIS LATER WEEK TIME FRAME THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE. && .AVIATION... WE SAW LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP BRIEFLY THIS MORNING AT DHN AND ABY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH SCATTERED TS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AT PFN AND FOR TS THIS AFTERNOON FOR TLH, PFN AND DHN. VCTS WAS USED AT ABY AND VLD. OVERNIGHT, WE ARE FORECASTING MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT ABY AND VLD. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. RECENT RAINFALL AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. && $$ AVIATION/FIRE WX...WOOL PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1124 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2006 .UPDATE... CONCERNS ON UPDATE WILL BE STATUS OF HEAT ADVISORY OVER WRN COUNTIES AND CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FROM OVERNIGHT MCS HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALTHOUGH BLOWOFF CIRRUS FROM THESE STORMS STILL LINGERS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA ALONG WITH PERSISTENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. BELIEVE CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL THIN AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BEGIN CLIMBING TOWARD MID 90S (PROVIDED WE MIX TO 925 MB AS NOTED ON KGRB...KMPX AND LOCAL KSAW TAMDAR SOUNDINGS). THUS WILL LEAVE HEAT ADVISORY INTACT FOR WRN COUNTIES AND KEEP PRETTY MUCH WITH GOING FCST TEMPS. NEXT QUESTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 12Z RUC HAS PICKED UP ON THIS BOUNDARY WHILE THE 12Z NAM HAS NOT. RUC INDICATES THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR LATER IN THE DAY. BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE OFF 12Z GRB (OVER 4K J/KG ASSUMING MID 90S CONVECTIVE TEMP IS REACHED) AND FACT THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN WAY OF CIN...FEEL COMPELLED TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA FOR AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES 30-40 KT ISOLATED STORMS THAT FORM COULD BECOME SEVERE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 00Z RAOBS AND WV LOOP SHOW BUILDING RIDGE INTO UPR MIDWEST INTO UPR LAKES WITH TROUGH PERSISTING OVR W CANADA/NW CONUS AND OVR E CANADA. MOST OF REGION IS HOT AND CAPPED WITH CONVECTION FIRING FM CNTRL ND INTO FAR S MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO. COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FM NW MN INTO SCTNRL SD. WARM FRONT STREAKS FM NW MN TOWARD N LK SUPERIOR. HOW CONVECTION TO THE NW PROGRESSES THIS AM IS MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN. EXCESSIVE HEAT THIS AFTN IS OTHER PRESSING CONCERN. COLD FRONT ARRIVES SOMETIME TUE/TUE NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE BRIEF BUT INTENSE HEAT WAVE. TODAY...TWO SEGMENTS TO THIS DAY. FIRST IS CONVECTION TRENDS THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR LOOPS FM NE ND AND DLH/MQT ALONG WITH CANADIAN RADARS SHOW BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FM ND INTO NCNTRL LK SUPERIOR. THESE STORMS ARE FEEDING OFF MUCAPES UP TO 7000 J/KG OVR N MN AND LIKELY ARE BASED ABOUT H85 AS THEY ARE DEVELOPING ON NOSE OF 45-50KT H85 JET. THUS FAR...WARMING ALOFT HAS CAPPED AIRMASS OVR CWA AND IS EFFECTIVELY INHIBITING THESE STORMS FM DEVELOPING SWD INTO UPR MI. INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IF THE STORMS CAN EXPAND SWD AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE A THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH OVERALL H5 HEIGHT RISES/H85 WARMING NOT SURE IF THE STORMS WILL DRIFT VERY FAR S FM CURRENT TRAJECTORIES. KEPT S ZONES DRY AS THAT AREA IS FIRMLY UNDER THE CAPPING AS SEEN ON GRB 00Z SOUNDING. SEEMS LIKE KEWEENAW PENINSULA INTO FAR NE CWA WILL SEE THE ONLY CHANCE OF STORMS DURING THE MORNING WITH BEST CHANCES FARTHER N TOWARD ISLE ROYALE AND N LK SUPERIOR. IF LINE OF STORMS BEGIN TO DIVE FARTHER SE THEN ADJUSTMENTS WOULD NEED TO BE MADE TO GOING GRIDS. BY AFTN HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP OVR THE PLAINS HELPING TO ENHANCE RIDGING/MID LEVEL WARMING ACROSS UPR LAKES AND KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO N OF CWA. SO...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS AND SUNSHINE TO PUMP UP TEMPS AND HUMIDITY VALUES BY EARLY AFTN. MIXING TO H9 YIELDS MAX TEMPS BTWN 95 AND 100 WHILE MIXING TO H85 WOULD RESULT IN MORE AREAS NEARING THE CENTURY MARK BY LATE AFTN. LOOKING FOR A FLY IN THE FORECAST? IT IS FEASIBLE THAT THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVR N LK MAY PUSH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TOWARD N UPR MI. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL PROBABLY BE MITIGATED SOME SINCE SW H9-H85 WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT BY LATE AFTN. IF THE OUTFLOW IS NOT THERE OR DOES NOT PERSIST WELL INTO AFTN...THEN COOLING NEAR LK SUPERIOR WILL BE MINIMAL WITH SW WIND DIRECTION. IN FACT... DOWNSLOPING COULD BOOST TEMPS WITH LOCATIONS FM BARAGA TO DOWNTOWN MARQUETTE HAVING GOOD SHOT AT 100 DEGREES. DAILY RECORD AT NWS OFFICE IS 94 SET IN 1975 WHICH SHOULD FALL. COULD EVEN SEE THE ALL TIME RECORD AT NWS MQT OF 99 DEGREES FALL. UNLIKE THE DAY EARLIER THIS MONTH WHEN WE FLIRTED WITH 100 DEGREES...THIS HOT SPELL WILL HAVE OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TOO AS DEWPOINTS THIS AFTN WILL RISE TO 65-70F. THIS WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES BTWN 100 AND 110. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO COUNTIES WITHIN GOING NPW AND SPS. FRONT OVER DAKOTAS DRAWS CLOSER TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE EJECTS FM NW CONUS ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA. SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE VERY CAPPED WITH CINH WELL OVER 100 J/KG. LIFTING FM H85 DOES YIELD LOWER CINH AND STARTS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MUCAPES TOWARD 3000 J/KG. BROUGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NW LATE TONIGHT AS H85 FRONT CLOSES IN ON UPR LAKES. FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO UPR MI ON TUE. ALTHOUGH N PORTION OF FRONT MAY QUICKLY TRANSLATE OVR CWA THINK THE S PORTION WILL BECOME STALLED AS THE BOUNDARY BECOMES PARALLEL TO UPR LEVEL FLOW. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. AT THE LEAST...THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS TO HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPS OVR MUCH OF CWA. EXCEPTION COULD BE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE TEMPS MAY RISE INTO THE LWR 90S. SHORTWAVE OVR SW CONUS EJECTS TUE AND BEGINS TO LIFT TOWARD LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVR THE REGION. WHERE THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SETUP IS KEY TO THE TUE NIGHT INTO WED FCST. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES A WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT NE. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT FRONT WILL BE OVR S UPR MI OR JUST A BIT FARTHER S. SO...MUCH OF CWA LOOKS IN LINE TO RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL ON CYCLONIC NRLY SIDE OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM. CANADIAN MODEL IS SLOWEST WITH OVERALL SCENARIO...NOT SHOWING RAINFALL ENDING OVR E/S ZONES UNTIL LATE WED NIGHT. GFS/NAM/UKMET ARE FASTER SHOWING THE PCPN ENDING BY WED EVENING. DELAYED PCPN OVR E AND S BUT NOT AS MUCH AS CANADIAN SHOWS. INCREASED POPS TO 50 FOR NOW...BUT IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL POSITION...WILL NEED HIGHER POPS IN LATER FCSTS. TRENDED TEMPS DOWN ON WED OVR N CWA WITH INCREASING NE WINDS WITH LOW OVR WI/LWR MI. SOME SPOTS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAY NOT EVEN REACH 70 DEGREES. QUITE A CHANGE COMPARED TO HEAT OF TODAY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND WED. HIGH PRES SETTLES IN LEADING TO DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WEEK. COORD WITH APX AND GRB...THANKS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING MIZ001>005-009>012-084. && $$ VOSS (UPDATE) JLA (PREV DISCUSSION) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 1109 AM CDT MON JUL 31 2006 .UPDATE... THE BLAST OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY OF SUNDAY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS BAD TODAY. THE SFC COLD FRONT/TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR A KJMS- KGFK-KHCO LINE. BASICALLY THIS IS THE MAIN WIND SHIFT LINE WHERE THE WIND SWITCHES TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...SFC DEW POINTS DO NOT DECREASE UNTIL YOU GET MUCH FURTHER WEST BEHIND THE FRONT (AROUND A KBIS-KMOT LINE)...WHERE THEY FINALLY DROP INTO THE 45- 55F RANGE. THEREFORE WILL HAVE MID 60 TO AROUND 70F DEW POINTS OVER MUCH OF THE FA THRU THE DAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ADVECTION OF THE DRIER AIR UNTIL LATE. AS FAR AS TEMPS...THE POOL OF 30C PLUS AIR AT 850MB IS NOT HERE TODAY. THERE IS A POOL OF 25C AIR JUST TO THE SOUTH/SE OF THE FA. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SITES IN THE FA TO MAKE A RUN AT 100F TODAY. IF ANYTHING...THINK WE MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM. LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ...WHERE TEMPS SEEM TO BE STEADY OR FALLING A BIT SINCE SUNRISE. CONCERNED THAT AREAS FROM CANDO TO LANGDON MAY NOT SEE 80F AT ALL TODAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND UPDATE LATER IF NEED BE. WITH COOLER TEMPS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY AREAS IN THE FA TO GET TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS FAR AS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE NOT COMING TOGETHER TO GET REALLY EXCITED ABOUT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE AVAILABLE...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION AGAIN BEING THE DEGREE OF LIFT. WITH THE SFC FRONT...THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE AND THAT IS WHAT THE FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MENTIONED. THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE LACKING WITH THE MAIN UPPER JET AXIS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. HARD PRESSED TO FIND ANY DECENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO PROVIDE A GOOD KICKER EITHER. 700MB TEMPS STAY PRETTY WARM THRU MOST OF THE DAY AS WELL...HELPING TO KEEP A WEAK CAP IN PLACE. ALL SAID...NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE TSTM POTENTIAL...BUT WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCES FOR AREAS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 424 AM CDT MON JUL 31 2006) SHORT TERM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CANADIAN BORDER DIED FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PASSED ON AND THE STORMS TRIED TO MOVE INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS. THEY WERE ALSO FED BY THE 750 MB JET THAT HAS SINCE MOVED INTO ONTARIO. STORMS ARE REGENERATING FARTHER WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND WHERE GOOD 250 MB DIVERGENCE IS AND WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE PROVIDING A LITTLE INITIATIVE. AN 850 MB JET IS PROVIDING SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THESE FEATURES ARE ANTICIPATED BY RUC TO BE WEAKER ONCE REACHING EASTERN ND BUT ENOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER THIS MORNING FOR DVL REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKENING. LATER IN THE DAY THE DAYTIME HEATING MAY OVERCOME THE WEAKER CAP OVERLYING IT. BOTH NAM AND GFS DROP THE 700 MB TEMPERATURE 2C BY 18Z...THEN IS ONLY +12C OVER WESTCENTRAL MN BY 00Z. THE ML CAPE SHIFTS EASTWARD QUICKLY TODAY WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH THOUGH A SHORTWAVE TRAILING BEHIND MAY TOUCH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. RETAINED A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS FOR EAST OF RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINK THIS POSSIBILITY WILL MOVE EAST AFTER THAT. PONDERED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR FFM/DTL/PKD AREA ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY ARE STILL AROUND 80F NOW. BUT VEERING WINDS DURING AFTERNOON AND THE 700 MB TEMPERATURE EROSION SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES FROM BECOMING ABSURDLY HIGH. STILL... HEAT INDICES TO APPROACH 105 AND DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. LONG TERM...MUCH COOLER THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF SEASONAL AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL. THIS IS NO SURPRISE AND LITTLE ADJUSTMENT WAS NECESSARY IN EXTENDED PERIOD. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ GODON nd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sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1042 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... MORNING SOUNDINGS AT RNK AND GSO INDICATE HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE MID 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND AROUND 90 TO THE WEST...WHILE MODELS AND UA ANALYSIS INDICATE SOME WARM ADVECTION TODAY AS WELL...SO HIGHS COULD EASILY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH FULL SUN...AND LOW 90S IN THE WARMER SPOTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. I HAVE RAISED THE MAX TEMP MOST LOCATIONS BY A FEW DEGREES. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED THE DEWPOINTS FOR THIS AFT YET...BUT THEY LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON THE MORNING SOUNDINGS...SO I DO NOT ANTICIPATE 3 HOURS OR MORE OF HEAT INDICES > 104 DEGREES NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY TODAY AND THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT COVERS IT WELL. WILL NEED AN ADVISORY BEGINNING TUESDAY FOR PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES. THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFT. DESPITE WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SO ABUNDANT THAT MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL PRODUCE CAPES OF 2000 J/KG IN THE PIEDMONT WITH LITTLE OR NO CAP. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A WEAK MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY CENTER OVER WV FROM AN MCS LAST NIGHT...AND THIS IS PROGGED TO PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE VA HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND PIEDMONT BY MID TO LATE AFT. THE RUC ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A LARGE SWATH OF CONVECTION BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN NEW RIVER VALLEY...EASTWARD THRU ROA AND SMITH MTN LAKE AREAS...AND ON INTO THE PIEDMONT. WHILE I THINK THIS IS OVERDONE...I DO THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO ADD INTO THE WEATHER GRIDS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING IN A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...SO WILL ADD IN HEAVY RAIN. NO OTHER CHANGES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 647 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2006) AVIATION... FOG WILL BE OF CONCERN VERY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...RANGING FROM DENSE AT LWB <1/4SM TO MVFR VSBYS AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT ROA WHICH IS P6SM. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12-14Z. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR...WITH SCT CU FORMING IN THE MTNS. ISOLATED STORMS WILL FORM ALONG SOME OF THE RIDGES...FROM THE NC MTNS NORTH INTO SE WV. THERE WILL BE A HAZE AROUND AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES STAGNANT. LWB SHOULD KEEP MVFR HAZE TIL 17Z. TONIGHT...LOOKING FOR VSBYS TO DROP ONCE AGAIN...FROM DOWN TO MVFR AT ROA...LYH...DAN AND BLF TO VLIFR AT LWB. EXPECT THIS GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 308 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2006) SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... BIG ISSUE THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE HEAT. FIRST OFF...THE SHOWERS/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS OVER PA/NRN WV FIZZLED OUT AS THEY MOVED SOUTH TOWARD SE WV. MORE ACTIVITY STILL EXISTS OVER WRN PA...BUT FLOW SHOULD KEEP IT NORTH AND EAST OF US THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SKIRT THE NE CWA THOUGH. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...WITH PLENTY OF SUN EXPECTED TODAY. THE CENTER OF THE 5H RIDGE WILL STILL WEST OF US TODAY OVER THE TN VLY. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT TSRA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS FIRING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH...BUT ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY FLOW TO KEEP IT FROM BECOMING TOO STAGNANT. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 100 OUT EAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT CLOSE TO ADVISORY. THREAT FOR PRECIP DIMINISHES MORE TUESDAY...AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR...AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO +22C...WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER. ONLY THREAT OF ANY SHOWER FORMING WOULD BE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC...WITH THE CAP FURTHER NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE DAY WHERE PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN CWA REACHES INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SIMILAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH 8H TEMPS AROUND 22C. A LITTLE WESTERLY FLOW WILL AID IN HEATING TEMPS. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S COMBINED WITH TEMPS AROUND 100 WILL BRING THE ERN COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR NOW WILL BE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. MODELS DO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE WEST...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE HERE WED AFTN. EAST SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED.&& LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MADE NO CHANGES THIS PERIOD...BUT LOOKS LIKE RIDGE COULD HOLD STRONG INTO FRIDAY PER LATEST GFS/EC...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING IN SAT-SUN. AVIATION... HAZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS TURNING INTO PATCHY MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT FOR MAJORITY OF THE AREA. SOME LOW LYING SITES MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS WHILE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DROPPING TO VLIFR BY SUNRISE. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR LWB-HSP BETWEEN 07Z-09Z MON. SLOW RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO BE BETWEEN 6-8SM. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS LOOK SAFE TODAY...BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD SEE RECORDS BROKEN. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR OUR SITES. ROANOKE LYNCHBURG DANVILLE BLUEFIELD BLACKSBURG -------------------------------------------------------------------- MON | 101/1953 99/1931 102/1953 93/1999 95/1953 TUE | 97/1953 98/1935 100/1999 90/1995 92/1999,53 WED | 98/1955 101/1942 98/1999 92/1988 92/1953 THU | 100/1963 100/1935 98/1980 89/1987 92/1975 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ JJ va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 235 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2006 .SYNOPSIS... 18Z WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. LARGE UPPER RIDGE SITTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST...BRINGING THE HIGH HEAT TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND EVENTUALLY THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK. WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SEEN SPINNING ACROSS NEW MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS STILL NOTED FROM THE CAROLINA COAST BACK ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NE GOMEX. LONGER WAVE TROUGH IS NOW ONSHORE ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE HELPING TO PUSH THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE TO THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTS WERE IT WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS ALSO IN AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THIS RIDGE DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE REFLECTION UNDER THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WOULD EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN SOME ADDED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND/OR DYNAMICS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SURFACE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY. A LINGERING HINT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST GOMEX MAY RESULT IN A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. 1000-700MB FLOW LIGHT FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE (PW VALUES OF 1.9"-2.0") WOULD POINT TOWARD NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR OUR CWA...HOWEVER DID KNOCK POPS DOWN 5-10% INTO THE 30-40% RANGE DUE TO LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS THROUGH THE COLUMN. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING GENERALLY BETWEEN 1500 AND 1800 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. THE LOWER VALUES ARE DUE TO VERY UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE LCL/LFC (900-850MB). LAPSE RATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN ARE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC OR EVEN LESS (5-6C/KM) AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HELPS TO WARM THE MIDDLE LEVELS. MADE SIMILAR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND RESULTANT SMALL LAPSE RATES IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS. BROUGHT POPS DOWN TO THE 30-35% RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND NEAR 40% ACROSS THE EASTERN BIG BAY COUNTIES WHERE POPS ARE MAXIMIZED WITH LIGHT WESTERLY MEAN LEVEL FLOW. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AS HOT IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH MIDDLE 90S LIKELY INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST. A FEW LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AL/GA ZONES MAY SEE UPPER 90S FOR A TIME IN THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE IN THE EXACT PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WORKWEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH AN UNORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN GOMEX THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE TO NO SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ARE SLOWLY TRENDING TO A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK. MOST LIKELY THE MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ADDED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. GOING FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CLIMO POPS WITH 40S AND 50S AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO BRING THESE UP AT THIS TIME. LATEST THINKING FOR THE WEEKEND WOULD BE FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO PULL BACK TO THE EAST AND NORTH A BIT. THIS WOULD TURN OUR LOW LEVELS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH POPS AND TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .MARINE... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE IN THIS POSITION...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS USUAL...WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. LATER THIS WEEK (THURSDAY OR FRIDAY)...A POSSIBLE UPPER DISTURBANCE/WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MAY BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...AS WELL AS INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS. IN THIS LATER WEEK TIME FRAME THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE. && .AVIATION... LOOKS LIKE TS ACTIVITY IS OVER FOR THE DAY AT PFN. WE KEPT TEMPOS FOR TS IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR DHN AND TLH WITH VICINITY AT VLD AND JUST A CB CLOUD GROUP AT ABY. THE OVERNIGHT FOG FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY. BOTH DHN AND ABY WENT DOWN TO VLIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. WE DIDN'T GO QUITE AS PESSIMISTIC FOR TONIGHT, BUT STILL TOOK THEM DOWN TO LIFR CIGS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN A TEMPO GROUP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. PFN HAS A PROB30 GROUP FOR MORNING TSRA, BUT THE OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD NOT SEE ANYTHING BEFORE 18Z. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. RECENT RAINFALL AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 73 95 74 96/ 20 40 20 30 PANAMA CITY 77 92 78 93/ 20 35 20 30 DOTHAN 73 94 74 95/ 20 40 20 30 ALBANY 73 96 74 97/ 20 40 20 30 VALDOSTA 73 95 73 96/ 20 40 20 30 CROSS CITY 73 93 73 93/ 30 40 20 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. && $$ AVIATION/FIRE WX...WOOL PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 355 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2006 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE HEAT WAVE POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...A RIDGE OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER ALBERTA. WEAK SHORTWAVES STREAMING THROUGH THE RIDGE IS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE A LOW IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MANITOBA. WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BLANKETS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL RACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO TONIGHT. THE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL FLATTEN A BIT. THE SHORTWAVE OVER EAST CENTRAL MANITOBA WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN JAMES BAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT OVER MINNESOTA WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN U.P. AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCAPE OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE 1600J/KG AND OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR APPROACHING 2000J/KG THIS EVENING. K-INDEX WILL BE AROUND 33 AND LI'S WILL BE AROUND -4C. THUS QUITE UNSTABLE. THE QUESTIONS WILL BE IF THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO FEED THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE AROUND 70F. PLAN TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. THE SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. ON TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL EDGE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN REACHING THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. WARM TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE WILL HELP GENERATE A MUCAPE OF 1500J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MEAN SURFACE TO 500 MB RH WILL BE AROUND 80 PERCENT. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND OVERRUNNING OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL FEED THE INSTABILITY. A FAIRLY STRONG THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL. THUS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. WITH THE COMPUTED DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW...IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID...HOWEVER...THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE JUST BELOW THE 100F CRITERIA FOR AN ADVISORY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL EDGE INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND 80 PERCENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IT DOES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. NAM SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MOVED THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MORE TO THE SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MUCH WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IS RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ALSO RACE ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER...DRY CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACER RIDGE SHOULD ALSO PREVENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING. A NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WHILE A RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GREAT SOUTHEAST STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO TO A LOW OVER LAKE WINNIPEG THEN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MONTANA. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN LOW MOVES TO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED OVER EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY HAS A CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS INTO EAST CENTRAL QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA MOVES OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HELP DIRECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING MIZ001>005-009>012-084. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 231 PM MDT MON JUL 31 2006 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED... WINDS GRADUALLY COMING DOWN IN THE EAST...THOUGH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH STILL BEING REPORTED FROM BAKER TO EKALAKA AND CAMP CROOK. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. WILL CANCEL WARNING FOR ALL REMAINING ZONES EXCEPT FOR 133. WOULD EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THIS EVENING AS PRESSURES ARE FALLING RAPIDLY NOW IN CENTRAL MT. DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE NOW WITH COOLER SFC RIDGE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. RADAR ECHO COVERAGE HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE UPSTREAM IN ID/NV/UT/WY IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF DEEP UPPER TROF OVER NORTHERN CA. WOULD EXPECT CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW TONIGHT AS TROF CONTINUES TO APPROACH US. GFS/RUC INDEED SHOW INCREASING MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE THIS EVENING. AS A SIDE NOTE THE NAM HAS INITIALIZED POORLY WITH REGARD TO DEPTH OF TROF TO OUR NORTH AND THAT OF THE TROF TO OUR WEST...IE IT IS MUCH TOO FLAT...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS...THOUGH BELIEVE IT TOO IS UNDERDOING GREAT BASIN ENERGY BASED ON NICE STRUCTURE ON WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED IMAGERY. THAT BEING SAID...LOOKS AS IF DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE STRONGER THAN ANY WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE A WHILE...AND THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME WET SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. OF CONCERN IS CURRENT DEWPTS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. THIS WILL BE AN INHIBITOR AT FIRST BUT THINK DYNAMICS WILL EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THE DRY AIR. EVEN AS MAIN UPPER SUPPORT EXITS ON TUESDAY...MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT...ON THE ORDER OF -15C AT 500MB...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH TOMORROW AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM/UKMET HINT AT ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY IN DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS...THOUGH WOULD EXPECT DRIER AIR TO RETURN WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW BY THEN. HAVE SUSTAINED SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. AFTER A BREAK TUESDAY NIGHT...HAVE EXPANDED ISOLD COVERAGE A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT SOME WETTING RAINS WOULD BE VERY MUCH WELCOMED WITH THE WILDFIRES IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY IF SHOWERS MATERIALIZE AND THE TIMING IS RIGHT. WILL BE A BIT WARMER WEDNESDAY BUT HIGHS SHOULD PEAK NEAR CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID 80S. LOWS WILL BE COMFORTABLE AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S. JKL .LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON... NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED AS PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR PERIOD ARE ABOVE THE HIGHEST ENSEMBLE VALUES IN SOME AREAS AND WILL BE WATCHED FOR ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD. ALL MODELS CONSISTENT WITH UPPER FLOW REMAINING ZONAL WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS IN FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. ON SUNDAY...SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT WITH GFS MOVING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE REGION WHILE ECMWF SUGGESTS WEAKER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A BIT HIGHER HEIGHTS. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME SMALL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION FOR THAT PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROUGH PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD OFF FOR MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL. MEIER && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OVER EXTREME EASTERN MONTANA WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY...CREATING SOME AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MEIER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 055/080 055/085 057/091 058/089 057/090 060/091 060/091 33/T 22/T 20/U 02/T 20/B 00/B 00/B LVM 049/078 047/082 046/087 050/083 047/087 048/088 048/088 33/T 22/T 20/U 02/T 20/B 00/B 00/B HDN 054/082 053/087 052/095 057/091 059/092 061/093 061/093 33/T 22/T 20/U 02/T 20/B 00/B 00/B MLS 054/083 053/087 056/093 059/091 061/090 060/092 061/092 23/T 22/T 20/U 02/T 20/B 00/B 00/B 4BQ 052/080 053/086 055/090 057/092 059/085 058/086 060/086 34/T 21/B 20/U 02/T 20/B 00/B 00/B BHK 051/082 053/084 052/093 057/086 056/087 056/088 056/088 23/T 22/T 20/U 02/T 20/B 00/B 00/B SHR 053/081 051/085 050/089 053/087 053/089 055/090 055/090 34/T 22/T 20/U 02/T 20/B 00/B 00/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 33-37. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 146 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2006 .AVIATION... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT TENDING TO KEEP A CAP ON ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN SUCH A STAGNANT PATTERN...TAF FORECASTS WERE GENERALLY PERSISTENCE WITH A LITTLE MORE TOMORROW THAN THERE IS TODAY. THAT MEANS LWB SHOULD GO DOWN TO LIFR OVERNIGHT WITH THE HELP OF SOME RIVER FOG...AND THE REST OF THE TAF SITES GENERALLY MVFR WITH FOG/HAZE OVERNIGHT. I PUT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AT BOTH LYH AND DAN TOWARD MORNING. HAZE MAY REMAIN MVFR INTO THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW I BROUGHT IT UP TO VFR 6SM HZ FOR ALL BUT LWB BY MID MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE ISOLATED SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1042 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2006) SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... MORNING SOUNDINGS AT RNK AND GSO INDICATE HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE MID 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND AROUND 90 TO THE WEST...WHILE MODELS AND UA ANALYSIS INDICATE SOME WARM ADVECTION TODAY AS WELL...SO HIGHS COULD EASILY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH FULL SUN...AND LOW 90S IN THE WARMER SPOTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. I HAVE RAISED THE MAX TEMP MOST LOCATIONS BY A FEW DEGREES. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED THE DEWPOINTS FOR THIS AFT YET...BUT THEY LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON THE MORNING SOUNDINGS...SO I DO NOT ANTICIPATE 3 HOURS OR MORE OF HEAT INDICES > 104 DEGREES NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY TODAY AND THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT COVERS IT WELL. WILL NEED AN ADVISORY BEGINNING TUESDAY FOR PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES. THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFT. DESPITE WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SO ABUNDANT THAT MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL PRODUCE CAPES OF 2000 J/KG IN THE PIEDMONT WITH LITTLE OR NO CAP. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A WEAK MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY CENTER OVER WV FROM AN MCS LAST NIGHT...AND THIS IS PROGGED TO PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE VA HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND PIEDMONT BY MID TO LATE AFT. THE RUC ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A LARGE SWATH OF CONVECTION BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN NEW RIVER VALLEY...EASTWARD THRU ROA AND SMITH MTN LAKE AREAS...AND ON INTO THE PIEDMONT. WHILE I THINK THIS IS OVERDONE...I DO THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO ADD INTO THE WEATHER GRIDS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING IN A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...SO WILL ADD IN HEAVY RAIN. NO OTHER CHANGES. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 647 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2006) AVIATION... FOG WILL BE OF CONCERN VERY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...RANGING FROM DENSE AT LWB <1/4SM TO MVFR VSBYS AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT ROA WHICH IS P6SM. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12-14Z. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR...WITH SCT CU FORMING IN THE MTNS. ISOLATED STORMS WILL FORM ALONG SOME OF THE RIDGES...FROM THE NC MTNS NORTH INTO SE WV. THERE WILL BE A HAZE AROUND AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES STAGNANT. LWB SHOULD KEEP MVFR HAZE TIL 17Z. TONIGHT...LOOKING FOR VSBYS TO DROP ONCE AGAIN...FROM DOWN TO MVFR AT ROA...LYH...DAN AND BLF TO VLIFR AT LWB. EXPECT THIS GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 308 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2006) SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... BIG ISSUE THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE HEAT. FIRST OFF...THE SHOWERS/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS OVER PA/NRN WV FIZZLED OUT AS THEY MOVED SOUTH TOWARD SE WV. MORE ACTIVITY STILL EXISTS OVER WRN PA...BUT FLOW SHOULD KEEP IT NORTH AND EAST OF US THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SKIRT THE NE CWA THOUGH. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...WITH PLENTY OF SUN EXPECTED TODAY. THE CENTER OF THE 5H RIDGE WILL STILL WEST OF US TODAY OVER THE TN VLY. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT TSRA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS FIRING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH...BUT ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY FLOW TO KEEP IT FROM BECOMING TOO STAGNANT. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 100 OUT EAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT CLOSE TO ADVISORY. THREAT FOR PRECIP DIMINISHES MORE TUESDAY...AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR...AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO +22C...WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER. ONLY THREAT OF ANY SHOWER FORMING WOULD BE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC...WITH THE CAP FURTHER NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE DAY WHERE PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN CWA REACHES INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SIMILAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH 8H TEMPS AROUND 22C. A LITTLE WESTERLY FLOW WILL AID IN HEATING TEMPS. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S COMBINED WITH TEMPS AROUND 100 WILL BRING THE ERN COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR NOW WILL BE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. MODELS DO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE WEST...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE HERE WED AFTN. EAST SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED.&& LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MADE NO CHANGES THIS PERIOD...BUT LOOKS LIKE RIDGE COULD HOLD STRONG INTO FRIDAY PER LATEST GFS/EC...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING IN SAT-SUN. AVIATION... HAZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS TURNING INTO PATCHY MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT FOR MAJORITY OF THE AREA. SOME LOW LYING SITES MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS WHILE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DROPPING TO VLIFR BY SUNRISE. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR LWB-HSP BETWEEN 07Z-09Z MON. SLOW RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO BE BETWEEN 6-8SM. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS LOOK SAFE TODAY...BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD SEE RECORDS BROKEN. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR OUR SITES. ROANOKE LYNCHBURG DANVILLE BLUEFIELD BLACKSBURG -------------------------------------------------------------------- MON | 101/1953 99/1931 102/1953 93/1999 95/1953 TUE | 97/1953 98/1935 100/1999 90/1995 92/1999,53 WED | 98/1955 101/1942 98/1999 92/1988 92/1953 THU | 100/1963 100/1935 98/1980 89/1987 92/1975 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ JJ va