FXUS64 KOHX 160203
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
845 PM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004

.DISCUSSION
NEXT TROUGH/FRONT LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM A LOW CENTER LOCATED IN 
UPPER MICHIGAN SWWD TO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL CURLING WWD TO A LOW 
NEAR TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO. FRONT IS MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 25 TO 30 KT. PAH/NQA RADARS INDICATING
A GOOD AREA OF MOISTURE AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE 
FRONT. SPRINGFIELD RECENTLY REPORTED 0.17 RAIN AS THIS PRECIP MOVED 
THROUGH. CURRENTLY, MIDDLE TENNESSEE ZONE PACKAGE IS CALLING FOR 
SPRINKLES WITH NO POP. WILL UPGRADE THE PRECIP FORECAST AND CHANGE TO
A "SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN" AND A 20 PERCENT POP. AN INTERESTING 
WIGGLE IN MAV POPS FROM THE 151800Z RUN. 

DT /OCT  16                  /OCT  17
HR   00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06
P06         0     2    10     2
P12              17          10  

I GUESS THE ANSWER TO THIS ANOMALY IS THAT THE POP REGRESSION EQUATIONS
ARE INDEPENDENT ENTITIES. THUS, I GUESS, THAT BOTH THE P06 VALUES COULD
BE ZERO AND THE P12 VALUE COULD STILL BE 17 PCT. IT JUST SEEMS A 
LITTLE ODD. 

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.


&&

.BNA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JLM