FXUS64 KMOB 010919
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
420 AM CDT THU JUL 01 2004

.SYNOPSIS...FOR THE CURRENT PACKAGE...PRECIP COVERAGE AND TIMING 
STILL THE BIGGEST FORECAST BUGABOO. TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT 
STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WE HAVE MORE WIGGLES THAN A HULA DANCER'S 
CONVENTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH A STRONG SYSTEM DIVING 
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...ANOTHER CLOSED SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA 
AT THE BASE OF A MEAN TROUGH OFF THE WESTERN SEABOARD...AND A DECENT 
SHORTWAVE HEADING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A BIT CLOSER TO HOME...WE 
HAVE A WIGGLE CROSSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THIS TIME... 
WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX 
COAST. HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE UPPER PATTER...WE HAVE A MEAN RIDGE 
STRETCHING FROM THE CO ROCKIES NORTH INTO CA...AND THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE ATLANTIC TO OVER MX. IN THE LOWER LEVELS 
OF THE TROPOSPHERE...WE HAVE A DECENT CONVERGENCE ZONE OFF THE 
NORTHERN GULF COAST STRETCHING FROM SOUTH OF KAQQ TO OFF KBPT. 
ALREADY SEEN SCATTERED TSRA OFF THE  NW FL/AL/MS/EASTERN LA 
COASTLINE BECAUSE OF THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE. ORGANIZED SOUTHERLY FLOW 
IS SPREADING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HELPING TO MOVE 
BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE 
AWAY...WITH A WEAKLY ORGANIZED LOW OVER THE NM/TX BORDER. MOISTURE 
HAS BEEN/IS BEING PUMPED UP WITH THIS ORGANIZING SOUTHERLY 
FLOW...WITH NEAR 2" PRECIP H20 LEVELS OVER EASTERN TX/LA/SW MS/ AND 
THE AL COAST/FL PANHANDLE. LOOKS LIKE THE PESKY DRY SLOT WHICH MADE 
PRECIP COVERAGE FORECASTING A BEAR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS MOVED 
OFF. GOES SOUNDER LITTLE HELP RIGHT NOW DUE TO ALL THE CLOUD 
COVER...BUT WHAT LITTLE IS SEEN...LITTLE DRIER AIR NOTED OVER THE 
GULF OF MX...BUT SOME OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. LOOKING AT THE WATER 
VAPOR LOOP...WE ALSO HAVE A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN 
MX/LATIN AMERICA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...ETA/GFS/NGM ADVERTISING SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN 
CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT 
TERM...WITH TROUGH AXIS REACHING THE MS RIVER BY F48/FRIDAY EVENING. 
FROM THERE...ETA SPEEDS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION UP A BIT...WITH 
TROUGH AXIS PAST THE FA BY F84/SUNDAY MORN...WHILST GFS MOVING THE 
TROUGH AXIS BARELY PAST THE MISS RIVER. 

WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE BACK IN PLACE...WILL GO A GENERAL LIKELY 
WITH DAYTIME POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AM A BIT LEARY OF THE GFS' 
TRYING TO LOWER THE POPS ON SATURDAY. LEANING TOWARDS THE MET 
NUMBERS IN THIS RESPECT. AS FOR TEMPS...OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE BEEN 
PLAGUED BY A DRIER THAN EXPECTED ATMOSPHERE. WITH THIS NO LONGER THE 
CASE...AM GOING WITH THE MOS NUMBER...WITH LITTLE TWEAKING.

&&

.EXTENDED...NO CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BLEND WITH SHORT TERM.

&&

.FIRE...NO PROBLEMS WITH MOISTURE. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SWITCH 
TO A GENERAL SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN 
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL INCREASE DISPERSIONS...BUT DO NOT SEE ANY 
PROBLEMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS / POPS...

MOBILE     88 73 87 75 89 / 80 50 60 20 30 
PENSACOLA  87 74 87 75 88 / 70 40 40 20 40 
DESTIN     87 76 86 78 87 / 70 30 40 20 40 
EVERGREEN  88 70 88 71 89 / 80 50 70 30 50 
WAYNESBORO 88 69 88 72 90 / 80 50 60 30 40 
CAMDEN     88 70 88 71 89 / 90 50 70 30 50 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

&&
$$

 16