STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 845 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 QUICK LOOKS THIS EARLY AM AT THE 09Z AND 12Z RUC AND LAST NIGHT'S 03Z MESO ETA INDICATE GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH SEA BREEZE FRONTS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SEEM MARGINAL BUT COMBINED WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON CONVERGENCE AND TEMPERATURES MID 80S TO NEAR 90 (CLEWISTON HAD 91 ON THURSDAY) IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO ADD MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH FLORIDA ZONES. 50 .MIA...NONE. NNNN fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1110 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 PER 12Z RUC MODEL AND OBS VIS SATELLITE TREND THIS AM... WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR PARTIAL SUN THIS PM AND WARMER TEMPS. MUCH BETTER MIXING TDA VS YDA AND UPSTREAM RAOBS THIS AM SUPPORT LOW 80S WITH FULL SUN SO WILL TWEAK ACCORDINGLY. .IWX...NONE. TEH NNNN in STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 950 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVER ILLINOIS WHILE THICKER CLOUDS IN WRN INDIANA WARMING. RUC DATA SHOWS RH FIELDS DRYING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD AGREE WITH SATELLITE TRENDS EXPECTED. THUS WILL UPDATE ZONES TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TWEAK TEMPERATURES IN SOME/MOST OF OUR ZONES TO MIDDLE 70S. .IND...NONE. TUCEK NNNN in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 950 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 WILL UPDATE FORECAST AROUND 15Z TO REMOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS FOG FINALLY BURNING OFF. HOWEVER...PARTS OF ERN KY HAVE CIGS BETWEEN 3- 4KFT. WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH KY THIS MORNING PRODUCING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS IN SCNTL KY. 12Z RUC SHOWS SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK UVM THROUGH 18Z MOVING FROM SCNTL KY INTO NE KY. MID AND HI CLDS PREVALENT IN WRN KY SW INTO WRN TN STREAMING TO THE NE. THERE WILL BE PEEKS OF SUNSHINE TODAY BUT THERE WILL BE MORE CLDS THAN SUN SO WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY OR BECMG MOSTLY CLOUDY. WILL ADD A FEW SPRINKLES TO OUR WRN ZONES AS WELL. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR NOW SO NO PLAN TO CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS. WHP NNNN ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 405 PM EST FRI APR 2 1999 LATEST SFC ANAL SHOWS LO PRES OVR SW LK SUP WITH WARM FNT XTNDG EWD NR WI BORDER. SKIES HAVE CLRD NICELY TO S OF FNT IN WI WITH TEMPS SHOOTING INTO 70S AS FAR N AS GRB/AUW WITH DWPTS WELL INTO 50S. BUT 12Z MPX/GRB/DVN SDNGS SHOW SHARP CAPPING INVRN WITH VERY DRY MID LVLS...SO CU DVLPG IN WI SHALLOW. STILL MODIFIED GRB SDNG SUGS CAP NOT FAR FM BEING BKN. NMRS BRKS HAVE DVLPD IN LO CLD OVR CWA... MAINLY IN WCNTRL. BUT FOG PERSISTS ACRS THE KEWEENAW AND NR ESC WHERE LONG OVER WATCH FETCH CONTS IN ELY FLOW. TEMPS CONFINED TO 30S-LO 40S ACRS MN ON NW SIDE OF COLD FNT XTNDG SWD FM SFC LO PRES. SCT -SHRA NOTED OVR ERN LK SUP ON SRN EDGE OF WHERE 12Z MODELS FCSTG H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC. ELSEWHERE...WV LOOP SHOWS DEEP WRN TROF WITH SVRL WELL-DEFINED SHRTWVS ROTATING THRU. ANOTHER MOISTURE AXIS WITH SHRTWV NOTED ACRS SRN PLAINS. THIS SYS APPEARS TO BE ROBBING WRN TROF OF GLFMEX MSTR. MAIN FCST DILEMMAS TNGT ARE TIMING OF SFC LO PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FNT ACRS CWA AND TEMP/FOG TRENDS. 18Z RUC SUPPORTS 12Z MODEL FCSTS OF SFC LO MOVG ENEWD ACRS SRN LK SUP AND REACHING A POSITION JUST NE OF MQT BY 06Z AND INTO ERN LK SUP BY 12Z. XPCT TEMPS TNGT TO REMAIN IN 40S E OF MQT-IMT BUT FALL INTO 30S TO W. AREAS OVR WCNTRL THAT HAVE SEEN CLRG SHUD HAVE FOG REFORM LATE TNGT AS SHALLOW COLD WEDGE ADVANCES EWD. AT LEAST PTCHY FOG IS LIKELY E OF BNDRY WITH MOIST SLY FLOW OFF LK MI. MODELS DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON APRCH OF SHRTWV TMRW THAT IS IN SRN PLAINS THIS AFTN. PREFER NGM SOLN OF SHEARING THIS SYS OUT AS IT MOVES NWD INTO MEAN RDG POSITION E OF MEAN TROF THAT WL REMAIN OUT W WITH PARADE OF SHRTWS. GIVEN DRY MID LVLS WITH STRG CAPPING...THINK PCPN WL BE JUST DZ CONFINED TO UPSLOPE AREAS WITH INCRSG NELY FLOW AS SFC HI PRES IN ONTARIO BLDS BEHIND SHRTWV CAUSING SPRINKLES IN ERN LK SUP THIS AFTN. TEMPS WL BE COOL OVR NCNTRL ZNS WITH FLOW OFF LK SUP...BUT MNM COUNTY WL LIKELY SEE HI TEMPS IN 50S WITH FNT GETTING HUNG UP ACRS SRN CWA. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON LIFTING MORE POTENT SHRTWV OUT OF MEAN WRN TROF AND BRINGING DECENT H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC INTO CWA LATE SAT NGT-SUN. SO WL INCRS POPS STARTING SAT NGT WITH APRCH OF QVECTOR CNVGC AND MSTR RDG WITH HIEST POPS OVR FAR W CLOSER TO TRACK OF SHRTWV NWD THRU PLAINS. STILL DON/T XPCT LOTS OF PCPN AS SYS TENDING TO OCCLUDE OVR PLAINS ON SUN WITH MSTR INFLOW DCRSG. FOR XTNDED PD...MODELS SHOW BLDG RDG OVR HUDSON BAY BEHIND BLOCKING VORTEX IN ERN CAN. XPCT DRY WX INTO TUE. SHRTWV FCST TO MOVE NEWD INTO DRY AIRMASS ON TUE/WED. WL GO HEDGE TOWARD SLOWER AND WEAKER MRF SOLN ON STORM WITH SYS MOVG INTO MEAN RDG IN BLOCKY PATTERN. .MQT...NONE. KC NNNN mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1115 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 WILL UPDATE ZONES TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SOME FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU QUICKLY FILLING IN BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LACK OF CU TO OUR WEST LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH CU SCHEME UTILIZING THE 12Z RUC DATA. THIS POINTS TO CONTINUED CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY... WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WHEN LOOKING AT MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS AROUND THE AREA. IN ADDITION... MID AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SCOOT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING BY TO OUR SOUTH. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE PEAKS OF SUNSHINE... MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE. SO... WILL LEAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST AS IS. AS FOR PCPN... WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS WELL. FEEL CAP IN PLACE SHOULD PREVENT ANY PCPN FROM FORMING. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL ERODE THE CAP SOME... BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEEP CONVECTION. IN ADDITION... THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVENT ANY GOOD LAKE BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE FROM SETTING UP AND HELPING THINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UP SOME HOWEVER... BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND EXPECTED PEAKS OF HAZY SUN. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE... AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE 03Z ETA AND 12Z RUC POINT TO HIGHS OF AROUND 70 FOR MOST OF THE INLAND PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHERN LOCATIONS NEARER THE WARM FRONT WILL BE A BIT COOLER... AS WILL THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES. WILL MOVE MOST TEMPERATURES UP A CATEGORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THINGS. ZONES WILL BE ISSUED BY 1120 AM. TRH NNNN mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 745 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 FOG RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AROUND 09Z ACROSS MUCH OF FA. MANY OBSERVING LOCATIONS NOW REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 1/4SM OR LESS NOW. ONLY AREAS NOT SEEING MUCH FOG ARE ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WHERE LIGHT E WIND IS DOWNSLOPING. 09Z RUC INDICATES WEAKENING SFC LOW NORTH OF KMSP WILL TRACK TOWARD SW UPPER MI TODAY. THIS SUPPORTED BY 03Z MESOETA. STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CNTRL WI MAY DRIFT N TOWARD UPPER MI...BUT NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT TO BORDER. MOIST LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH SFC CONV N OF FRONT SHOULD MAINTAIN FOG ACROSS MUCH OF FA TODAY. WILL ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING FROM KEWEENAW PENINSULA S AND E ACROSS MOST OF CNTRL UPPER MI. .MQT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING MIZ001-003>005-010>014. ROLFSON NNNN mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 425 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 FCST CONCERNS ARE PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THRU FCST PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS DEEP UPPER TROF WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN STATES. DOWNSTREAM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL REVOLVE AROUND SHORTWAVES EJECTING NE OUT OF WESTERN TROF. ONE SHORTWAVE HEADING NNE THROUGH NW MN ATTM. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE AND INVERTED TROF REFLECTED NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS MN. SFC LOW LOCATED JUST SW OF KMPX. STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW EAST ACROSS CNTRL WI INTO N LWR MI. N OF STATIONARY FRONT...WAA AND UVM...WITH DRY MID LEVELS AS SHOWN ON 00Z KGRB SOUNDING...RESULTING IN AREAS OF -DZ ACROSS MUCH OF FA. TO OUR SW...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE HAS TRIGGERED SMALL BKN LINE OF -SHRA AND EVEN -TSRA ACROSS ECNTRL MN AND NW WI. 00Z MODELS AND 06Z RUC INDICATE BEST FORCING AS SHOWN BY 850-500MB QVEC CONV WILL MOVE W/NW OF FA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOSE ENOUGH AND BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS WILL INTRODUCE SCT MORNING -SHRA FOR W FA. AS LIFT EXITS FA LATE MORNING...-DZ WILL END BUT LOW OVERCAST WILL REMAIN. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE E TO SE THIS AFTN AS INVERTED TROFING DEVELOPS INTO UPPER MI. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NCNTRL. LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATES MID 50S AT KESC. WITH FLOW DEVELOPING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...50S OUT OF THE QUESTION FROM KISQ TO KMNM AND WILL CUT GUIDANCE 10 TO 15 DEGREES. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR LK MICHIGAN AS WELL WITH MOIST FLOW TRAVERSING COLD WATERS. AS EXPECTED IN THIS TYPE OF UPPER AIR PATTERN...MODELS DIFFERENT IN TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TO EJECT NE TONIGHT/SAT. ETA STRONGEST AND QUICKEST WHILE NGM SLOWEST AND AVN A COMPROMISE. WILL TREND TOWARD AVN AND HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION TONIGHT. WILL BRING IN CHC POPS FOR SAT...BEST CHC WEST CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING. NE/E SFC FLOW TO DOMINATE SAT SO TEMPS COOLER AGAIN NCNTRL. .MQT...NONE. ROLFSON NNNN mi FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1025 AM CST THU APR 2 1999 MORNING ANALYSES INDICATE THAT AIRMASS CONTINUES TO LOAD UP FOR SOME WEEKEND FIREWORKS. WILL UPDATE ZONES FOR MINOR WORDING ADJUSTMENTS. 12Z RUC PRODUCES RAPID DESTABILIZATION OVER THE ARKLATEX THIS AFTERNOON WITH 70-80% MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. CAPES APPROACH 3000 WITH CAP WEAKENING TO LESS THAN 3 DEGREES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 8C. THESE NUMBERS COULD BE ACTED UPON BY AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK AT 300-200MB SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCH FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT THERE THAT COULD LATER TRACK INTO NORTHWEST MS. OTHERWISE...FIRST SHOT WITH SUBSTANTIAL MESOSCALE SUPPORT SHOULD COME IN LATE SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT. .JAN... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. NNNN ms MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 957 PM PST THU APR 1 1999 SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG DISTURBANCE ROTATING OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATER TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE THE SOUTHERN MOJAVE DESERT...AND SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET. OTHERWISE... COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING HIGHER TERRAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY BEFORE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS BISECTING COLD UPPER LOW AND OUR AREA FROM THE N-NE THROUGH THE S-SW CONTINUES AS THE MAIN PLAYER THIS EVENING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL VORT HAS SPUN UP ON THE SOUTH END OF THIS SHEAR AXIS MOVING ONSHORE EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL WINDS SENDING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA AT THIS TIME WITH RECENT INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING CONSIDERABLE ENHANCEMENT. YUMA RADAR VERIFIES INCREASING PRECIPITATION ACROSS DESERTS SPREADING INTO WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. NEW ETA AND AVN AGREE SENDING STRONG VORT INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA JUST BEFORE 12 UTC WITH STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY ACROSS SRN MOHAVE COUNTY REVERSING THEN TO DOWNWARD BETWEEN 12 AND 15 UTC. NEW ETA QPF NOT FAR OFF FROM RUC WITH 3 HOURLY TOTALS GREATER THAN 0.10 INCH SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY FROM 06-12 UTC. SO EVENT LIKELY ALREADY JUST STARTING...BUT WE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY FOR TONIGHT FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET AND 6 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE HUALAPAI'S. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE RULING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS STRONG VORT WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW TO THE S-SW INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEVADA WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS STILL CONTINUING BASED ON SATELLITE AND THE FEW SURFACE REPORTS RECEIVED. LARGE SCALE ZONE UPDATES TO THE FIRST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR ALL THESE CHANGES. SOME BLENDING INTO THE SECOND PERIOD OF THE ZONES...BUT OVERALL MADE RELATIVELY FEW CHANGES PERIODS 2-4. MAC .LAS...A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY. CHECK WITH THE LATEST RNOWSWLAS FOR DETAILS. NNNN nv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1002 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 H5 RIDGE WILL CONT TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH WEAK SFC TROF PUSHING OFFSHORE. FOG IS RAPIDLY BURNING OFF PER LATEST VIS IMAGERY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE AFTERNOON. SFC RIDGE AXIS BEHIND THE TROF IS PROGGED BY 12Z RUC TO BUILD SOUTH TODAY AND COULD SEE WINDS GO LIGHT NORTHEAST BY AFTN. MAY MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO WIND DIRECTION. WITH ABUNDANT SUN BY NOON EXPECT TEMPS TO SOAR. BASED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS WITH FULL SUN ONGOING TEMP FCST LOOKS GOOD. CWF: WILL TWEAK WINDS A BIT BASED ON ABOVE DISC AND REMOVE FOG BUT REST OF CWF LOOKS GOOD. VAD WINDS LIGHT NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KFT AND WITH WEAKENING GRADIENT THIS AFTN EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. THANKS CHS FOR THE COORD. .ILM...NONE. MORGAN NNNN nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 905 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 LOOKING AT ETA AND RUC MODEL SNDGS THIS AM...LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME CLOUDS WILL BE HANGING AROUND ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE BREAKS OVR THE CSTL PLAIN. VIS SAT IMAG SHOWING BACK SIDE OF STRATUS DECK ERODING RAPIDLY. WITH NELY WIND AT THE SFC...CLOUDS OVR OUTER BANKS AND IMMEDIATE COAST WILL TAKE LONGER TO DISSIPATE. CURNT FCST TEMPS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH WARMER TEMPS OVR CSTL PLAIN WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED. MARINE: WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N WINDS WILL SLOWLY COME AROUND TO THE NE THIS AFTN. DUE TO LACK OF TIGHT PRES GRAD WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT TODAY...10 TO 15 KT. .MHX...NONE. ORROCK NNNN nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 940 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 SEEMING A LOT LIKE YESTERDAY AS PLENTY OF CLDS OFF TO THE W...WTH NOT TOO MANY BREAKS. CRNT ZFP MTN OF CLD/SUN MIX APPROPRIATE...BUT FEAR MORE CLDS THAN SUN MAY REQUIRE BUMPING DOWN HI TMPS ACRS FA. WL SEE WHAT NXT HRLYS COME IN AT. 12Z RUC DATA SHOWING WK S/WV OVR SRN IL TAKING ITS TIME GETTING HERE AND MOST OF PCPN ASSOC WTH THIS FEATURE APR NOT HITTING GRND. LIKE CRNT WORDING OF CHC SPRINKLES...AS THIS SHUD BE THE MOST OF WHAT TO EXPECT WTH MDL SNDG PRETTY DRY ABOVE LLVLS AND NOT UVV TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE. UNFORTUNATELY...NO CRNT SNDG FOR ILN TO BACK THIS UP. MISILN OUT IN A FEW. .ILN...NONE. NNNN oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 955 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 FOG HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED AND LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ERODING AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WELL ON THEIR WAY TO FORECAST MAXIMA. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD COME ONSHORE WITH A PRETTY GOOD SEABREEZE. MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH. AT THIS TIME DO NOT BELIEVE CHANCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FORECAST. CWF...DO NOT SEE MANY CHNGS FOR UPDATE. WL REMOVE MENTION OF FOG. CURRENT OBS SHOW WNDS N/NW. RUC INDICATES NW WND TO BECOME VAR INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA. .CHS... .SC...NONE. .GA...NONE. /JCI NNNN sc COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 300 AM CST FRI APR 02 1999 SHORT TERM...00Z CRP SOUNDING WAS SATURATED TO 850 MB AS STRONG LOW LEVEL THTE ADVECTION ON THURSDAY CONTRIBUTED TO LOTS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. -DZ HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO WILL MENTION FOR THIS MORNING. ETA AND 03Z RUC MAINTAINING GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WEAK IMPULSES IN STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ARE MAINTAINING ENHANCED CLOUDINESS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MEXICO. AS IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...SOME PATCHY -RA WILL DEVELOP SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER MUCH OF AREA TODAY. SIGNIFICANT MIXING LOOKS DOUBTFUL TODAY AND WITH 88D VWP SHOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 30 KNOTS...WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW AND GO WITH CAUTION ON LAKES. WILL STAY CLOSE TO MAX TEMPERATURES ON PREV PACKAGES. LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH MAINTAINING LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS TO STAY WELL NORTH WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHING NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT LAYER TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM ETA AND AVN SHOWING A PRETTY STRONG CAP OVER AREA ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE CAPE/LI FORECASTS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY. HARD TO ARGUE WITH CURRENT POP FORECASTS SO WILL LET THESE NUMBERS RIDE. EXTENDED...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JET TO APPROACH SOUTH TEXAS AND THINK THAT THIS COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY OVER CROSSROADS AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LAYERED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS STILL INDICATING A GOOD CAP OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. LATEST MRF CONSISTENT WITH PAST RUNS IN MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE COASTAL BEND ON MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SCENARIO... CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. MARINE...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ALONG BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS TODAY SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED. CRP CE 078/071 081/070 083 72222 VCT CE 076/069 081/069 082 72223 LRD EE 085/070 088/070 088 72211 AP...72 (SYN) ML...73 (MESO) .CRP...SCA BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275 NNNN tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 945 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 LTST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK CDFNT ALG NJ CST WITH LOWERG DEW POINTS TO N. STGST PRES RISES OVR SRN NEW ENG SUGG FRONT WL CONT TO WORK DOWN THE CST TDY. WITH LL FLOW ALREADY N/NE OVR FA...LL MOISTURE WL B SLOW TO MIX OUT NR CST. ALSO 09Z RUC TM SECTIONS INDICATING INCRSG MID/HI LVL MOISTURE RIDING OVR UPR RDG THIS AFTN. SKY COND FCST A BIT TRICKY THIS AFTN...WL LIKELY B SUNNY FOR A TM INLAND AREAS ARND MIDDAY THEN INCRSG HI CLDS THIS AFTN. NR CST...LOW CLDS SLOWLY ERODE THRU MIDDAY THEN AT LEAST PTSUNNY THIS AFTN. AFTN HIGH TEMPS QUITE SUN DEPENDENT WITH STABIL PROGRAM INDICATG FULL SUN TEMPS M70S. WL TAPER HIGHS BACK NR CST DUE MR CLD CVR AND ONSHORE FLOW. WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WL ENTER FA TNT. WL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN ONSHORE FLOW/MARINE INFLUENCE. LOW LVL MOISTURE RMNS HIGH...XPTG MR ST/FG FORMATION OVRNGT. CWF...N/NE WINDS INCRSG A BIT AS BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THRU...BUT NOT XPTG SCA THIS TM. .AKQ...NONE. CULLEN NNNN va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 330 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999 TRANQUIL NIGHT. SCT-BKN STRATUS MAKES THE FULL MOON LOOK RATHER EERIE. FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALMOST STAGNANT. STILL A 3-6 KT WRLY WIND COMING OFF THE ERN SLOPES AND THIS IS KEEPING THE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD. IR FOG CURVE DOES NOT SHOW ANYTHING WIDESPREAD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A COUPLE OBSERVATION SITES REPORTING VSBYS AOB 1/4. COORDINATED WITH AKQ AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ANY DENSE FOG ADV...UNLESS TRENDS CHANGE. HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN OVER THE U.S TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEP TROF IN THE WEST IS COMPLIMENTED BY SHARP RIDGE IN THE EAST. WITH RIDGE OVHD DON'T EXPECT TOO MUCH EXCITEMENT THE NEXT 48 HOURS. COORDINATED WITH WBC CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND WE ARE IN PRETTY MUCH AGREEMENT THAT POPS ARE FAIRLY LOW IN THE NEAR TERM. ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA IS MOIST BUT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND CAPPING INVERSION. A LOOK AT THE RUC SOUNDINGS FOR 18 UTC THIS AFTN AND THERE IS A STRONG CAP BETWEEN 700-800 MB. CAPES FOR OUR CWA ARE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 500-700 J/KG AND WITH LACK OF LIFTING MECHANISM DON'T SEE ANYTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT MORE THAN A 20 POP. FOR TONIGHT SFC WINDS BECOME SERLY. WITH BLYR MOISTURE RELATIVELY HIGH...THINK TONIGHT MAY BE THE BETTER NIGHT FOR STRATUS AND FOG. LL FLOW WILL POOL MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SO THICK FOG AND OR STRATUS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THE ETA MODEL DOES SPIT OUT A LITTLE PRECIP SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING ANY ATTM. PER DSCN WITH AKQ...MOST LIKELY METEOR WOULD BE DRIZZLE. .RNK... VA...NONE NC...NONE WV...NONE. PM NNNN va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 1045 AM CST FRI APR 2 1999 THUNDERSTORM CHCS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FCST PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED 12Z GRB SOUNDING INDICATED CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG...WITH LI'S AROUND -3 IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. A WEAK CAP WAS NOTED BETWEEN 650 AND 700 MB. 12Z RUC SHOWED THE LFQ OF A H3 JET STREAK MOVG INTO NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND A WEAK VORT MOVG INTO C WI BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. EXPECT THESE FEATURES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BREAK THE WEAK CAP. THUS...HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE 1ST PERIOD FCST. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN TO 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF MY CWA...BUT MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND FOG HAS HELD TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S FARTHER NORTH. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT A CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOVMT OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MOST OF NC/NE WI TO WARM INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP LK/BAY AREAS AROUND 50. KIECKBUSCH WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB NNNN wi COLORADO STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO 755 PM MST FRI APR 2 1999 ...UPDATED... ...IMPORTANT NOTE TO ALL USERS... THIS PRODUCT WILL NOT BE ISSUED AFTER 0300 AM MDT APRIL 6 1999. IN ITS PLACE...3 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED BY WFOS DEN...GJT AND PUB. THEY WILL COVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREAS OF EACH WFO FOR ALL FORECAST PERIODS INCLUDING THE 3-5 DAY EXTENDED FORECASTS. THESE PRODUCTS WILL BE STORED UNDER THE FOLLOWING... AFOS HEADERS WMO HEADERS FOR WFO DEN......DENAFDDEN........FXUS65 KBOU FOR WFO GJT......DENAFDGJT........FXUS65 KGJT FOR WFO PUB......DENAFDPUB........FXUS65 KPUB SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. UPR LVL LOW NR GJT WAS MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS EVENING WITH LATEST RUC SHOWING SYS MOVING INTO ECNTRL WY BY 12Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LVL DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO CNTRL CO AND HAD CAUSING SNOW TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY OVR THE FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDER. UPSLOPE FLOW IS WK AND WITH UPR LVL SYS MOVING N OF RGN IT'S HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT HEAVY SNOW WL OCCUR OVR THE FOOTHILLS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NERN CO OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER STILL MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW DUE TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS AND SOME MID-LVL QG ASCENT. NRN MTNS MAY STILL SEE DECENT SNOW DVLPG LATER TONIGHT AS MSTR WRAPS AROUND UPR LVL LOW AND OROGRAPHICS BCM MORE FAVORABLE. THUS WL LEAVE HIGHLIGHTS FOR MTNS BUT CANCEL ADVISORIES FOR ALL OTHER AREAS. KLEYLA .DEN...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST...SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST FOOTHILLS AND EL PASO COUNTY...ZONES 9..12.. 17>19..60..61...65>69..71 AND 72 SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL VALLEYS...SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN...ZONES 3..5..23..30..32. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT FROM PUB TO TAD...ZNES 73>75. SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS... ZONES 4..10..33..AND 34. NNNN co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 900 PM MST FRI APR 2 1999 A LITTLE BIT OF EVERY KIND OF PRECIPITION POSSIBLE IS FALLING OVER THE GOODLAND CWFA THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION...SNOW IS FALLING AT THE OFFICE...AND REPORTS OF SLEET ARE ALSO COMING IN. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE CURRENT SITUATION AND PLACE THE RAIN-SNOW LINE ROUGHLY NORTH- SOUTH FROM MCCOOK TO QUINTER BY DAYBREAK. PRESENT INDICATIONS JUDGING FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC ARE THAT ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD FALL OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWFA. .GLD...NONE ENTWISTLE NNNN ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..........UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 930 PM CST FRI APR 2 1999 VERY FEW CHANGES WILL OCCUR WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. THE LATEST SURFACE CHART SHOWED LOW PRESSURE IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE NEWEST ETA MODEL RUN CONTINUED TO SHOW A SIMILAR TREND TO THE RUC AND BRING THE SURFACE LOW OVER ICT BY 12Z. WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND STORM HISTORY OVER OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING... I AM HINGING ON A SIMILAR SCENARIO IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE WORDING WILL BE KEPT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL...HOWEVER...THE STORMS IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE PRODUCED TORNADOES. CHANCE .ICT...NONE. NNNN ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1010 PM EST FRI APR 2 1999 WILL CONTINUE WITH DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...ST MARY'S RIVER SYSTEM REMAINS CLOSED FROM MUNUSCONG LAKE BUOY TO THE SOO LOCKS. PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AHEAD OF WEAK CIRCULATION MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. 00Z RUC MDL HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE MOVING IT INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATING ANOTHER WEAK CIRCULATION ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNED ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN LOWER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXHIBITING WAVY CHARACTERISTICS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AS A RESULT OF LAKE INFLUENCE. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IN EMMET AND CHARLEVOIX COUNTIES ARE AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S AS WELL AS ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE WHERE PERSISTENT EAST FLOW OFF LAKE HURON IS OCCURRING. SOUTH OF THE FRONT TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER 60S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. AS WEAK CIRCULATION MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER ALONG FRONT... EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST LOWER WILL REMAIN ON COOL SIDE OF FRONT OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT UPWARD TEMP ADJUSTMENTS MADE ESPECIALLY TO THE SW CWA. AS TEMPS COOL TO CLOSE TO DEW POINT VALUES WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORRELINE. CURRENT FORECAST AND STF ADDRESSES THIS WELL. .APX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVERNIGHT...ZNS 8..15. FITZSIMMONS NNNN mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 900 PM EST FRI APR 2 1999 MAIN WEATHER CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS THE EXTENT OF DENSE FOG. SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL WI WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE NE OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.P.. IN ADDITION STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOW ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION JUST NE OF THE KEWEENAW. NONE OF THE MODELS SLP FCST APPEAR TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER MODEL WIND FCST DO HINT AT THIS LOW BY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N. BELIEVE THE RUC HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. THE RUC TRACKS THIS LOW FROM CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE BY DAYBREAK. TIME SECTIONS SHOW A VERY MOIST LOWER LAYER WITH NEUTRAL UVM. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. CURRENT OBS SHOW VSBY'S OF 1/4SM OR LESS FROM IWD TO SSM TO ESC. AREAS OF HIGHER VSBY IN BETWEEN...EXPECT VSBY TO CONTINUE TO LOWER AS DEWP DEPRESSIONS CONTINUE TO DECREES. WILL THUS ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY. .MQT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALL ZONES. LULOFS NNNN mi MINNESOTA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 810 PM CST FRI APR 2 1999 WIND PROFILER NETWORK SHOWING 30 TO 35 KT WNDS AT FAIRBURY LCTN...A BIT STRONGER THAN 12Z GUIDANCE. IMPRESSIVE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE CONTRIBUTING TO KS SUPERCELLS AND INCREASING CONVECTION OVR NE/SRN IA. FTHR NORTH...JET STREAK NOTED ON IR IMAGERY ENHANCING VV OVR NRN IA CONTRIBUTING TO THUNDER ON DOORSTEP OF CWA IN NRN IA. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON SITUATION WITH INCR COUPLET OF UPR DVGNCE AND LVL LVL CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SRN CWA. MANIPULATION OF FCST FRM SOUNDING USING INTERACTIVE SKEW-T FEATURE DETERMINING INSTABILITY ABV INVERSION YIELDS SMALL CAPE BUT LIFTED INDEX DROPPING TO -1 AND TOTAL TOTALS OF 46. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED S CNTRAL ZNS AND WL MOST LIKELY BEEF UP POPS IN MSP AND PSBY EAU ZNS. THREAT FOR -SHRA/-TSRA INCREASES THROUGHOUT CWA ON SAT AS STG S/W EJECTED OUT OF LONGWAVE TROF IN WEST. MAIN DYNAMICS APPEARS WL BE OVR PLAINS WITH SHARP NEGATIVELY TILTED SFC TROF/CLD FNT SWEEPING THRU AREA ON SAT. .MSP...NONE. KAVINSKY NNNN mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 830 PM MST FRI APR 2 1999 GOES-10 DERIVED WINDS HAS UPPER LOW WESTERN COLORADO. STRONG JET PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SHOULD DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THUS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW. THIS MAKES ME THINK THAT EARLIER MODELS WERE TOO FAR EAST WITH LOW KICKING OUT. VERY IMPRESSIVE CLOUD ENHANCEMENT OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING SLOWLY WORKING NORTHWARD. RADARS TO THE SOUTH SHOW SNOW PATTERN FROM CASPER TO SOUTH OF RAPID CITY. 00Z RUC MOVES UPPER LOW INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING BY MORNING WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THINK THIS EVENT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED FOR THE SOUTHEAST. THE WAY IT LOOKS TO ME (WITHOUT FULL ETA AND AVN PACKAGES) IS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THOUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WITHOUT THE FULL MODEL RUNS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES ...BUT MIDNIGHT CREW MAY INDEED NEED TO RAISE ONE FOR THE SOUTHEAST. BASED ON COORDINATION WITH BIS AND RAP...WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WORDING IN THE SOUTHEAST AS INITIAL WAVE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS PUSHED NORTH AND NEXT WAVE TO MOVE UP LATER TONIGHT. REST OF FORECAST LEFT ALONE. WILL UPDATE BY 915PM. HUMPHREY BIL JJ 022/035 024/037 028 554446 LVM .. 017/037 022/039 ... 553334 HDN .. 020/037 022/040 ... 554446 MLS .. 024/033 024/033 ... 556687 4BQ .. 024/030 024/030 ... 556787 BHK .. 023/030 023/028 ... 556887 SHR JJ 022/032 020/034 025 556666 NNNN mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 915 PM MST FRI APR 2 1999 LOOKING AT CURRENT RADAR...SNOW MVG INTO NRN NEB AND EXTREME SRN PORTIONS OF SD. THIS BAND EXTNDS W INTO WYM AND LKS LIKE IT WILL MV THRU WRN SD DURG NEXT 4-6 HRS...CURRENTLY DROPPING 0.10 - 0.15 INCHES LQD. THUS 1-2 INCHES...MORE IN HILLS WITH INITIAL BAND WITH ADDNTL SNOW LATER TONIGHT. THUS 2-4 LKS GD MOST AREAS. CURRENT IR SAT IMAGES AND WATER VAPOR SUGGEST A MORE WESTERLY MVMT OF SYS. JET ON E SIDE OF UPPER LOW IN CO AND JET ALSO MVG INTO W CST SHLD HELP SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SYS. 00Z RUC ALSO BEARS THIS OUT...WITH MORE PCPN ACRS NE WY AND FAR WRN SD. WL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME...THO MIDNIGHT CREW MAY HAVE TO UP TOTALS ABIT FOR NRN HILLS AND NE FOOTHILLS AS WINDS TURNING ABIT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. .UNR...SNOW ADVISORY SDZ001-002-012>014-024-032-041>-044 FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SNOW ADVISORY SDZ046-047-049 LATE TONIGHT. WINTER STORM WATCH SDZ046-047-049 FOR SATURDAY. LJC NNNN sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 824 PM CST FRI APR 2 1999 AFTER REVIEWING LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES AND THE 00Z RUC MODEL RUN...THINK THAT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA NEED TO BE INCREASED...AND WILL INCLUDE CAUTION WORDING IN THE FIRST PERIOD. AFTER COORDINATION WITH KLBB AND KFWD...WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. PACIFIC FRONT LOCATED BETWEEN KINK AND KMAF...MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST. EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 07Z-08Z FOR SAN ANGELO...AND AROUND ABILENE BY 09Z-10Z. ALSO...BASED ON 88D TRENDS DROM KDYS AND KSJT...WILL UP POPS AREAWIDE...AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT HAS FINALLY BROKEN THE CAP...AND FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR RAIN HAS INCREASED ACCORDINGLY. WRK ZONES TO FOLLOW. 20 NNNN tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1241 AM EST SAT APR 3 1999 KJKL 88D INDICATING THAT ECHOES WEAKENING AS THEY PUSH FURHTER EAST INTO RIDGE. MAIN BRUNT OF SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF I-75 FROM LOZ-SME NORTH TO THE OH RVR. S/W ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND PUSHING EAST PRETTY FAST. 15Z RUC AND 12Z NGM DOES SHOW MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LIS STAYING BETWEEN ZERO AND MINUS 3 FOR THE AFTN. WITH SUN RETURNING TO SCNTL KY COULD SEE MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL UPDATE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN TO LOWER POPS AS I DO NOT THINK OUR FAR EAST COUNTIES WILL SEE MUCH. WILL ALSO RAISE HIGH TEMPS AS READINGS ALREADY NEAR 80 IN NON PCPN AREAS. WHP NNNN ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1001 AM EST SAT APR 3 1999 FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED TO RAISE POPS. AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUING TO PUSH TO THE ENE ACRS SRN KY WITH PLENTY OF LTGCG SHOWING UP. HAVE ALREADY HAD A FEW SHOWERS ENTER THE MIDDLE/UPPER CUMBERLAND VLY THIS MORNING. LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS ARE NOT PICKING THIS UP TOO WELL BUT 12Z RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT NOW. WITH THIS IN MIND OUR SW AND NW CWA SHOULD GET SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL UP THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL THERE. FURTHER EAST IN THE RIDGE AND WEAK DOWNSLOPING WILL CUT THE POPS AND WILL PROBABLY BREAK OUR SE ZONES UP AND GO LIKLEY WITH ONE AND CHANCE WITH THE OTHER. 12Z RUC SHOWED GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE 305K SFC PUSHING FROM WRN KY THIS MORNING INTO CNTL KY BY 15-18Z AND UPT INTO NE KY/SRN OH LATE THIS AFTN. MAIN BRUNT OF SHOWER SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ECNTL KY AND UP TOWARD THE OH RIVER WITH LESSER ACTIVITY FURTHER SE AS CONVERGENCE GETS WEAKER. UPDATE WILL BE OUT BY 1530Z. AS FOR TEMPS...MAY LOWER A BIT DUE TO RAIN/CLOUDS. WHP NNNN ky EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 950 AM CST SAT APR 3 1999 UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL BUT A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THE 12Z NGM AND RUC MODELS...ALONG WITH CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS...ALL SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTH ACORSS NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. IT ALSO NOW APPEARS THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. ALSO LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND AND ALSO DROPPED WIND SPEEDS BACK SOME. KEPT THE MENTION OF SEVERE GOING WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN IT WILL FINALLY SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE WE MAY DO IT ALL OVER AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MORE LATER. .TUL... OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REST OF TODAY FOR ZONES 49...53...56>58...61>63...AND 67>77. AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REST OF TODAY FOR ZONES 1...2...10...11...19...20 AND 29. PLATE NNNN@ RUKWBC` c ? N ixx G x E ok