ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/16/08 1225Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1215Z GG
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LOCATION...WEST FLORIDA...COASTAL ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI...
LOCATION...EXT SE LOUISIANA...
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ATTN WFOS...TAE...MOB...LIX...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...LMRFC...
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EVENT...VERY HIGH EFFICIENCY LINEAR MCS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LINEAR MCS HAS DEVELOPED IN VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WIND FIELDS SHOWING VERY GOOD UVV
FROM JET DYNAMICS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF COAST FROM SE LA THROUGH FL
PANHANDLE...40-50 UNITS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS FOCUSED JUST SOUTH OF THE
MS COAST LINE.  THIS LINE IS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO BACKGROUND FLOW
WHICH POSES THE THREAT OF MODERATE TRAINING OF CELLS...THOUGH LOW LEVEL
INFLOW/DEVELOPMENT VECTORS FROM THE SOUTH ARE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SOME SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE E. THIS IS OK FOR SE LA BUT POSSIBLY DETRIMENTAL FOR
COASTAL MS/AL AND WEST FL...WHERE NEW DEVELOPMENT SEEMS TO BE AIDED BY
FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE FROM GOOD S TO SSW SFC FLOW OFF THE GULF ALONG
THE E-W COASTLINE.  THIS SLY FLOW IS ALSO PUMPING VERY HIGH MOISTURE AIR
(TDS IN LOW 70S) WITH PWS PER SOUNDER/AMSU AND GPS NETWORK OVER 2.0"
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE LINE.  THIS FLUX AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT HAVE LEAD
TO VERY HIGH EFFICIENCY OF RAIN PRODUCTION ALONG THE LINE...IR/VIS SHOW
MULTIPLE OVERSHOOTING TOPS WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF -60 TO -65C... LEADING
TO SATELLITE ESTIMATIONS OF 2-3"/HR RATES WITH TOTALS OF 2-3" ESTIMATED
ALREADY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF MUCH HIGHER VALUES FROM MS TO WEST FL.

A WEAK BOUNDARY OF PERCOLATING CU CAN BE SEEN FROM SW-NE ORIENTED CELL
OVER W GULF COUNTY FL INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TO JUST EAST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MS RIVER...IF THIS LINE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP...IT POSES A GOOD CHANCE
OF ROBBING BEST MOISTURE FLUX TOWARD THE MS/AL/FAR WEST FL PANHANDLE
POTENTIALLY LESSING THE HVY RAIN THREAT...STILL GULF/BAY COUNTIES AND
EASTWARD WOULD STILL BE AT RISK.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3083 8978 3050 8417 2878 8671 2908 9141
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