FXUS61 KRLX 060209 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1005 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2003 ******************************************************************* 1005 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2003 ...OVERNIGHT PERIOD... HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE TORNADO WATCH. CONVECTION THIS EVENING IS CONCENTRATED IN A NARROW BAND FROM NORTHEAST KENTUCKY TO EAST CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS ONGOING IN THE WEST AND ARE BEING HANDLED BY WARNINGS. DO NOT EXPECT FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS TO EXTEND MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN WHERE THEY ARE THIS EVENING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AND MOSTLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS JET STREAK HELPING FUEL THESE STORMS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH AREA. BUT WITH ALL THE JUICE AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE...AND FOR THE MOST PART ENDED STORMS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. .END/JMV ******************************************************************* 238 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2003 TNGT AND TUES... LIKE MOST SUMMER TIME FCST POPS WL BE BASED OFF LATEST RDR TRENDS. LINE OF TRW/RW MVNG THRU CNTRL CWA SHUD BE LAST FOR MOST. WORRIED TSTMS IN WW253 MAY CLIP SRN 1/3 OF CWA...NONETHELESS WL CARRY CHC POPS ALL NGT IN CASE OF DYNAMIC DRIVEN TRW/RW...ALTHO FEEL MOST SHALL RMN DRY AS H7-H3 LYR MSTR FALLS BLO 35 PERCENT. BL WNDS ARND 10-15KTS SHUD KEEP FG AT BAY XCPT IN DEEPER VLYS. TUES APPRS ANOTHER RND OF CONV IS IN THE CARDS...WELL IF YOU BUY INTO THE ETA...WHICH BRINGS A SYSM UP FM THE SW. OPPOSED TO GFS WHICH SPREADS AN MCS ACR TN VLY INTO THE CAROLINAS...ROBBING AREA OF DYNAMICS. OPTED TO ROLL WITH ETA GVN GUD HANDLE ON TDYS CONV...SO BRING POPS IN FM THE SW AND INC THEM TO LKLY ACR SRN HALF OF FA TUES AFTN. WORRIED TMRW ABOUT PSBL TRAINING OF STRMS WITH H8 BNDRY DRAPED ACR I-64. GUID NMBRS ON CUE WITH MIN AND MAX T GRIDS...POPS LIKE STATED ABV FOLLOW MORE THE MET. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTION TUESDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST ACROSS NORTH BEFORE NEXT WAVE MOVES ACROSS CWA ON WEDNESDAY. REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT PERIODS WITH DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH...THEREFORE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. INCREASED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY TO LIKELY AND THEN LOWER BACK DOWN TO CHANCE...MAINLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. GFS AND ETA DIFFER ON TIMING AND LOCATION WITH THURS DISTURBANCE BUT DID NOT TRY TO GET CUTE WITH IT AND ROLLED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS. INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS A TOUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS WE REMAIN AND WARM MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... CONTINUE FRONT IN OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SYSTEM PULLING THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WARRANTS AT LEAST 40 POP. POP FROM PE TOOL OUT OF ATLANTA ACTUALLY PUTS LINE OF 100 POP ALONG OHIO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN REDUCES IT TO 30 EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES AT 18Z AND THEN WELL SOUTH AND EAST BY 00Z SAT...ALL THIS OFF 6Z RUN. ANYWAY WILL ROLL WITH 40 WITH THIS INTO FRI EVE. THINGS LOOK LIKE THEY ACTUALLY DRY OUT FOR SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE/PW GONE AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS LONGITUDINALLY...BUT MAIN SURFACE FRONT IS STILL TO THE NORTH. SUNDAY AND MONDAY IT IS BACK INTO IT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES. NOT FAR FROM MOS. .RLX... WV...NONE. VA...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...NONE. 99/HC/TRM ****************************************************************** 1012 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2003 LINE OF CONV MVNG ACR ERN KY WEAKENING AS IT HDS E. GVN DISCRETE PROPAGATION FEEL STGR CELLS WL MV SE OF FA. TUFF CALL TDY H2 JET ACR LWR MS RVR VLY PRESENTLY HEADS NE THIS AFTN AND WITH TSTMS ACR SRN IND FEEL THESE TWO MAY CONNECT...BRINGING ANOTHER RND OF WET WX. INSTABILITY RMNS RATHER IMPRESSIVE W OF OH RVR WITH LI/S -5 AND SBCAPES ABV 1.0 KJ/KG. H8 WNDS IMPRESSIVE ON AREA VWPS WHICH CONCURS WITH H8 WND FCST AS 50-60KTS XPCTD TO LAST THRU THE AFTN. ANY TSTM THAT ROLLS THRU MAIN THREAT WL BE HIGH WNDS WITH BRIEF HVY DWNPRS...BUT GVN 0-3KM STRM MTN ARND 35KTS FLOODING NOT ANTICIPATED UNLESS A TRAINING SCENARIO DVLPS. MAXT GRIDS TRICKY THIS AFTN WITH SUBSIDENCE BHND CONV BLOB WL ALLOW FOR A GUD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WHICH WL SHOOT UP TEMPS. THIS CLRNG IS SVRL HRS AWAY SO WL LWR HIGHS A CAT AREA WIDE AND PLAY UP WNDS ESP IN THE MTNS...OTRW REST UNCHANGED. 99 ****************************************************************** 355 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2003 WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH A BIT SLOWER THAN MODELS BUT WIDESPREAD PCPN SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FM SW-NE AFTER 15Z. WINDS TOUGH TO FIGURE TODAY...AS RAIN MAY LESSEN THE WIND AT SURFACE UNTIL WARM SECTOR ARRIVES. THINKING MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY CNTRL KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD MOVE EAST INTO TRI STATE FM WEST. DESPITE WARM FRONT LIFTING N...STILL NO SIGNS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH US AND MOVE THROUGH. SO WE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR THE REST OF THIS WEEK. ETA HAD STRONG LIFT ON TUE FROM VORT MAX WITH GFS MUCH LESS EXCITED. BELIEVE GFS GUIDANCE POPS OF 20-30 TOO LOW FOR TUESDAY. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS WITH INITIAL RAINS THIS MORNING. THINKING TOTAL OF AN INCH THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO. SOME MINIMUMS LIKELY ON WESTERN SLOPES. HOWEVER...WILL THEN HAVE TO MONITOR REPETITIVE SHOTS THE REST OF THIS WEEK. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE WITH US. NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED PERIODS. BATTY + CL ******************************************************************