ILLINOIS STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 225 PM CST SAT APR 3 1999 CURRENT BAND OF SHOWERS AND WHAT TRW THERE ARE SEEMS TO BE FALLING APART AS IT APPROACHES NORTHEAST IL AND NWRN IN. WW'S IN PLACE FAR SRN IL WHERE STG LO LVL JET AND OTHER DYNAMICS MORE SUGGESTIVE OF TRW ACTIVITY AND ROBBING PRECIOUS MSTR FROM REST OF IL TNGT. MAY HAVE TO LESSEN POPS FOR NRN AND WRN PARTS OF IL THIS EVE AND DROP BACK TO LIKELY TNGT. ALL MODELS SEEM TO BE SAYING MUCH THE SAME WITH A SURGE OF ACTIVITY THIS AFTN AND AGAIN WITH BEST OMEGA JUST AHD OF FNTL PASSAGE LT TNGT. AVN AND NGM APPROX THE RUC FOR TNGT AND HAVE A LTL MORE FAITH IN THEM THAN ETA WHICH VARIES GREATLY FRM OTHERS LAST 24 HRS. MAINLY ETA FAILS TO DVLP LO IN SRN PLAINS SUN NGT AND MON WHILE AVN AND NGM DEEPEN SYSTEM WELL. AS SUCH NEXT SHOT OF PCPN DUE ON PROBLY MON NGT WITH SOME INCRSG CLDS MON...BUT ETA WUD HAVE PCPN IN SRN 1/2 IL ON MON WITH OVRRUNNING WRMFNT THRU STL. DRYING NW WINDS BHND FNT SUNDAY SHUD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ESP LT MRNG AND AFTN AND FAIR SKIES SUN NGT. WUD LIKE TO FOLLOW MOS TEMPS. FAN TMPS AWKWARD NERN IL WITH ONLY 59 FCST ORD. NE WNDS OFF LK MICH NOT EXPECTED (EVEN WITH AVN) UNTIL SUN NGT AND MON WHEN SHUD BE COOLER LKFNT THAN INLAND. .CHI...GALE WRNG LK SUP BRUMER NNNN il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 145 PM CST SAT APR 3 1999 SHORT TERM... AFTER MORNING MESO-VORT CENTER HAS LIFTED NE WHICH RUC HAS LATCHED ONTO, CURRENT MESOSCALE ANALYSIS IS INDICATING THAT PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE THREAT STILL AVAILABLE. WARM FRONT HAS SURGED NORTH TO HIGHWAY 20 (FOD-ALO LINE) WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AIDING CONVERGENCE FROM DSM-UIN LINE WHERE TSRA ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP IN MOST UNSTABLE AIR. LIS DOWN TO -5 TO -7 OVER LARGE AREA E OF I-35. SHEAR PROFILE GETTING BETTER AS 80KT+ 500 MB JET TURNING N THROUGH KS/NE. SLATER PROFILER SHOWING WINDS BACKING NICELY IN LOW-LEVELS AS WAA PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN IA INTO MN. RIGHT REAR QUAD OF JET IS PROGGED TO BE OVER IA/MO AREA WITH INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. CI SHIELD FROM ACTIVE CONVECTION IN MO/OK/AR IS THINNING SOME AS IT REACHES IA. A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING MAY DO THE TRICK AFTER MODIFYING 18Z TOP SOUNDING. EXPECT SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP AROUND 00Z AS DIFF PVA INCREASES ALONG COLD FRONT. ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS MAY HAVE TO BE CONTENDED WITH ALONG WARM FRONT IF HEATING PERSISTS. LONGER TERM...MODELS IN AGREEMENT OF SURFACE LOW OCCLUDING BUT AFTER LESS DEEPENING THAN ADVERTISED ON PREVIOUS RUNS. 220 DM HEIGHT FALLS AT PORTLAND THIS MORNING AND WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING IMPRESSIVE TROUGH DIGGING IN QUICKLY. AVN MODEL IS QUICKEST TO BRING AFFECTS TO IA. MINIATURE SURFACE HIGH WILL ERODE FAST ON EASTER WITH WESTERLY FLOW TURNING EASTERLY BY EVENING. OTHER THAN SOME CI, SHOULD BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING NICELY INTO THE 60S WITH DRIER AIR. WILL INCREASE CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE SW, AND CAN'T ARGUE WITH POPS STARTING AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SW IA. THIS NEXT TROUGH, AGAIN NEGATIVELY TILTED, AND MAY BRING A DECENT THREAT OF CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE TO THRIVE ON ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER IA AGAIN, WITH BEST SURFACE BASED LIS FORECAST FURTHER S. IN PERIODS 5-7, MRF CONTINUES PROGRESSIVE BOUT WITH SHORTWAVES DUMBELLING AROUND MEAN WESTERN US TROUGH. A SYSTEM SIMILAR TO TODAY'S AND TUESDAY'S IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF MRF IS CORRECT IN BREAKING PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND AND BRING THOSE COLD 5220M THICKNESSES INTO IA. .DSM...NONE KULA NNNN ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 900 PM MST FRI APR 2 1999 A LITTLE BIT OF EVERY KIND OF PRECIPITION POSSIBLE IS FALLING OVER THE GOODLAND CWFA THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION...SNOW IS FALLING AT THE OFFICE...AND REPORTS OF SLEET ARE ALSO COMING IN. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE CURRENT SITUATION AND PLACE THE RAIN-SNOW LINE ROUGHLY NORTH- SOUTH FROM MCCOOK TO QUINTER BY DAYBREAK. PRESENT INDICATIONS JUDGING FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC ARE THAT ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD FALL OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWFA. .GLD...NONE ENTWISTLE NNNN ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..........UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 930 PM CST FRI APR 2 1999 VERY FEW CHANGES WILL OCCUR WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. THE LATEST SURFACE CHART SHOWED LOW PRESSURE IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE NEWEST ETA MODEL RUN CONTINUED TO SHOW A SIMILAR TREND TO THE RUC AND BRING THE SURFACE LOW OVER ICT BY 12Z. WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND STORM HISTORY OVER OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING... I AM HINGING ON A SIMILAR SCENARIO IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE WORDING WILL BE KEPT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL...HOWEVER...THE STORMS IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE PRODUCED TORNADOES. CHANCE .ICT...NONE. NNNN ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1241 AM EST SAT APR 3 1999 KJKL 88D INDICATING THAT ECHOES WEAKENING AS THEY PUSH FURHTER EAST INTO RIDGE. MAIN BRUNT OF SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF I-75 FROM LOZ-SME NORTH TO THE OH RVR. S/W ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND PUSHING EAST PRETTY FAST. 15Z RUC AND 12Z NGM DOES SHOW MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LIS STAYING BETWEEN ZERO AND MINUS 3 FOR THE AFTN. WITH SUN RETURNING TO SCNTL KY COULD SEE MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL UPDATE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN TO LOWER POPS AS I DO NOT THINK OUR FAR EAST COUNTIES WILL SEE MUCH. WILL ALSO RAISE HIGH TEMPS AS READINGS ALREADY NEAR 80 IN NON PCPN AREAS. WHP NNNN ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1001 AM EST SAT APR 3 1999 FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED TO RAISE POPS. AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUING TO PUSH TO THE ENE ACRS SRN KY WITH PLENTY OF LTGCG SHOWING UP. HAVE ALREADY HAD A FEW SHOWERS ENTER THE MIDDLE/UPPER CUMBERLAND VLY THIS MORNING. LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS ARE NOT PICKING THIS UP TOO WELL BUT 12Z RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT NOW. WITH THIS IN MIND OUR SW AND NW CWA SHOULD GET SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL UP THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL THERE. FURTHER EAST IN THE RIDGE AND WEAK DOWNSLOPING WILL CUT THE POPS AND WILL PROBABLY BREAK OUR SE ZONES UP AND GO LIKLEY WITH ONE AND CHANCE WITH THE OTHER. 12Z RUC SHOWED GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE 305K SFC PUSHING FROM WRN KY THIS MORNING INTO CNTL KY BY 15-18Z AND UPT INTO NE KY/SRN OH LATE THIS AFTN. MAIN BRUNT OF SHOWER SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ECNTL KY AND UP TOWARD THE OH RIVER WITH LESSER ACTIVITY FURTHER SE AS CONVERGENCE GETS WEAKER. UPDATE WILL BE OUT BY 1530Z. AS FOR TEMPS...MAY LOWER A BIT DUE TO RAIN/CLOUDS. WHP NNNN ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 400 PM CST SAT APR 3 1999 FCST CHALLENGES THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDE MOVMNT OF FRONT THIS EVENING AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS PCP CHCS AGAIN AT THE BEGNNING OF THE WEEK. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC FRONT STRETCHING FROM CNTRL IA INTO SE KS...CLIPPING THE NW CORNER OF MO. SW WINDS HAVE BEEN ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR IN THE VERY WESTERN ZONES AND EVEN THO FRONT STILL MOVING EAST THRU HERE...WINDS AT MCI HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST. LOOKS AS IF THE ONGOING PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AREAS IN THE EASTERN CWFA HAD PLENTY OF WARMING TODAY...AND SHUD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON CURRNT PCP/QPF. DRYING CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRNT GIVING SOME DECENT HEATING FOR SUNDAY. SHUD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING GUID TEMPS AND WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW. NEXT QUESTION COMES IN SUN NITE/MON MORNING WITH NEXT SHRT WAVE. RETURN FLOW SETS UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE WILL BE THERE. WILL MAINLY FOLLOW THE STRONGER AVN AS ITS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CURRNT FEATURES NAD A TAD STRONGER THAN THE ETA. AVN HAS LARGE AREA OF WAA PRECIP...THINK IT MAY ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY NITE AND INTO REST OF CWFA ON MONDAY. LAPSE RATES ARE SUCH THAT WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ALSO. LLVL MOISTURE IS PRETTY HIGH AND CUD SEE SOME GOOD RAINS OUT OF THIS ONE. W/PCP AND CLDS...GUID TEMPS LOOK AT BIT HIGH FOR MONDAY AND WILL TRIM DOWN. EXTND FCST LOOKS DRY UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN CLOSED UPPER LOW IN CA MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRL PLAINS. .EAX... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. LVQ NNNN mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 830 PM MST FRI APR 2 1999 GOES-10 DERIVED WINDS HAS UPPER LOW WESTERN COLORADO. STRONG JET PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SHOULD DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THUS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW. THIS MAKES ME THINK THAT EARLIER MODELS WERE TOO FAR EAST WITH LOW KICKING OUT. VERY IMPRESSIVE CLOUD ENHANCEMENT OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING SLOWLY WORKING NORTHWARD. RADARS TO THE SOUTH SHOW SNOW PATTERN FROM CASPER TO SOUTH OF RAPID CITY. 00Z RUC MOVES UPPER LOW INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING BY MORNING WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THINK THIS EVENT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED FOR THE SOUTHEAST. THE WAY IT LOOKS TO ME (WITHOUT FULL ETA AND AVN PACKAGES) IS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THOUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WITHOUT THE FULL MODEL RUNS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES ...BUT MIDNIGHT CREW MAY INDEED NEED TO RAISE ONE FOR THE SOUTHEAST. BASED ON COORDINATION WITH BIS AND RAP...WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WORDING IN THE SOUTHEAST AS INITIAL WAVE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS PUSHED NORTH AND NEXT WAVE TO MOVE UP LATER TONIGHT. REST OF FORECAST LEFT ALONE. WILL UPDATE BY 915PM. HUMPHREY BIL JJ 022/035 024/037 028 554446 LVM .. 017/037 022/039 ... 553334 HDN .. 020/037 022/040 ... 554446 MLS .. 024/033 024/033 ... 556687 4BQ .. 024/030 024/030 ... 556787 BHK .. 023/030 023/028 ... 556887 SHR JJ 022/032 020/034 025 556666 NNNN mt EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 950 AM CST SAT APR 3 1999 UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL BUT A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THE 12Z NGM AND RUC MODELS...ALONG WITH CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS...ALL SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTH ACORSS NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. IT ALSO NOW APPEARS THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. ALSO LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND AND ALSO DROPPED WIND SPEEDS BACK SOME. KEPT THE MENTION OF SEVERE GOING WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN IT WILL FINALLY SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE WE MAY DO IT ALL OVER AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MORE LATER. .TUL... OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REST OF TODAY FOR ZONES 49...53...56>58...61>63...AND 67>77. AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REST OF TODAY FOR ZONES 1...2...10...11...19...20 AND 29. PLATE NNNN@ RUKWBC` c ? N ixx G x E ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 915 PM MST FRI APR 2 1999 LOOKING AT CURRENT RADAR...SNOW MVG INTO NRN NEB AND EXTREME SRN PORTIONS OF SD. THIS BAND EXTNDS W INTO WYM AND LKS LIKE IT WILL MV THRU WRN SD DURG NEXT 4-6 HRS...CURRENTLY DROPPING 0.10 - 0.15 INCHES LQD. THUS 1-2 INCHES...MORE IN HILLS WITH INITIAL BAND WITH ADDNTL SNOW LATER TONIGHT. THUS 2-4 LKS GD MOST AREAS. CURRENT IR SAT IMAGES AND WATER VAPOR SUGGEST A MORE WESTERLY MVMT OF SYS. JET ON E SIDE OF UPPER LOW IN CO AND JET ALSO MVG INTO W CST SHLD HELP SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SYS. 00Z RUC ALSO BEARS THIS OUT...WITH MORE PCPN ACRS NE WY AND FAR WRN SD. WL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME...THO MIDNIGHT CREW MAY HAVE TO UP TOTALS ABIT FOR NRN HILLS AND NE FOOTHILLS AS WINDS TURNING ABIT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. .UNR...SNOW ADVISORY SDZ001-002-012>014-024-032-041>-044 FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SNOW ADVISORY SDZ046-047-049 LATE TONIGHT. WINTER STORM WATCH SDZ046-047-049 FOR SATURDAY. LJC NNNN sd STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 905 PM CST SAT APR 3 1999 UPDATED ZONES TO LOWER POPS ACROSS WEST HALF AND END ALL WATCHES ACROSS THE STATE. 00Z RUC MODELS SHOWS ANOTHER WEAKER VORTICITY CENTER APPROACHING SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY 09Z AND WESTERN EDGE OF IR CLOUD SHIELD OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS HAS APPARENTLY STOPPED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THUS PRECIPITATION MAY BE SLOWER TO CLEAR FROM THE SOUTH THAN ELSEWHERE. .LIT...NONE NNNN ar AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 718 PM EST SAT APR 3 1999 LARGE BREAK IN THE ACTION ATTM. WL UPDATE AND INDICATE SHRA/TSRA LKLY N TO CAT S AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH WK WAVE MOVING INTO SRN IN AND LWLVL THETA E ADV TO INCRS AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LTST RUC ALSO SHOWING INCRD CAPE UPSTRM AT 03Z. .IWX...NONE PBM NNNN in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1050 PM CST SAT APR 3 1999 HAVE UPDATED TO COVER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. RECENT RUC RUN HAS S/W ROTATING THRU ST BETWEEN 06-09Z WITH PCPN OUTPUT. .DSM...NONE FORSTER NNNN ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1015 PM EST SAT APR 3 1999 02Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THAT HAS UNLEASHED A SQUALL LINE RACING EASTWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DEW POINTS ARE NOTED IN THE 60S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S AHEAD OF THIS LINE. IN ADDITION A QUASI-STATIONARY OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LAID OUT EAST TO WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. DIURNAL HEATING ALONG THIS KICKED OFF ONE LAST ROGUE THUNDERSTORM EARLIER THAT HAS SINCE DIED OUT IN OUR MORE STABLE AIRMASS. DEW POINTS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE NOTICEABLY LOWER...RESIDING IN THE MID 50S. THE SQUALL-LINE WILL MOVE EAST ALTERING ITS ENVIRONMENT EVEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR AND HEART OF THE 500 MB RIDGE. THE LATEST RUC AND MESO ETA INDICATE THAT THIS LINE WILL PROGRESS STEADILY EAST...WEAKENING SOMEWHAT BY THE TIME IT REACHES EAST KENTUCKY. THE MODELS ALSO KEEP THE BEST OMEGA NORTH WHEN IT DOES GET HERE WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE LESS STABLE AIR THERE AND PATH OF THE 500 MB VORT. SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THE LINE...WHATEVER REMAINS OF IT...HERE BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. UNTIL THEN DON/T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. WILL UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES. ZFP AMENDMENT OUT SHORTLY. THE FOLLOWING IS PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN PRODUCT SDFZFPKY. LOZ EE 059/075 052/074 053 08853 JKL WE 061/074 052/073 053 08653 GREIF NNNN ky FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 925 PM EST SAT APR 3 1999 LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS TRW OVER ADIRONDAKS. TRACK IS CURRENTLY ESE AND WOULD PASS N OF OUR F/A. MORE TRW OVER WRN PA MOVING E. EVENING RUC AND 18Z ETA SHOW NRN NY STORMS AT INTERSECTION OF MINIMUM LI (MAX INSTABILITY) WITH MAXIMA OF VORT (LIKELY ASSTD WITH CDFNT). THIS WEAKS WITH TIME AS IT STRETCHES THRU VT/NH. PA STORMS ASSTD WITH S/W MOVING THRU UPPER RIDGE. RIDGE WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THOSE STORMS AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF ANY TRW REACHING US WOULD BE IN WRN ZONES. WL ADD CHC TRW LATE TNGT THERE. OTHERWISE CURRENT FCST OF BCMG CLDY WITH RW LIKELY LATE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. PCPN EXTRAPS TO OUR AREA ROUGHLY 3-6 AM. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN 40S. WITH CDFNT ON CANADIAN BORDER EXPECTED THRU HERE LATE AND 35-40 TEMPS JUST N OF IT...WOULD EXPECT MINS OF 35-40 IN NRN ZONES AND 40-45 SOUTH. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FCST. MARINES...NO CHANGES. .BOS...SCA. WTB NNNN ma SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 840 PM MST SAT APR 3 1999 UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS EVE. BIGGEST CHALLENGE TGNT IS TRYING TO DETERMINE WHERE H5 LOW OVER SE MT WL GO. 00Z ETA MOVS IT SLOLY N AND SLGTLY W THRU SUN BEFORE MOVG TO SASK BY MON. 03Z RUC SIMILAR WITH UPR LOW NOT MOVG MUCH TGNT. BANDS OF WRAP-ARND MSTR CONT TO MOV S INTO THE STATE ARND THE CIRCULATION WITH SNOW BEING RTPD E OF GTF. WL CONT WNTR STRM WRNG FOR ZNS 11 AND 13 TGNT AND INTO SUN THO NOT ENTIRELY CONVINCED WE WL SEE HIGH AMTS OF SNW. HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL WNTR STRM WTCH AND ISSUE SNW ADVRSYS FOR ZNS 10 AND 12. BELIEVE THESE ZNS WL SEE SOME ACCUMULATION OF NEW SNW BUT RMN FAR ENUF W FM THE HVY STUFF. NO HILITES FOR SW MT. WL ISSUE APPROPRIATE WSW AFTER ZNS GO OUT AND WL UPDATE SFP. EMANUEL GTF 6813 HLN 5513 HVR 8912 NNNN mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TO UPDATE TEMPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 850 PM MST SAT APR 3 1999 UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS HOUR. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PRESSING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE EAST SLOPES. 00Z RUC MODEL HAS UPPER LOW PUSHING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. LAST FEW FRAMES OF BOTH WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE MORE OF WEST/NORTHWEST MOVEMENT. NEW ETA GRABS LOW AND TAKES INTO NORTHWEST CANADA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON UPDATE. STRONG JET ENERGY DIVING INTO THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL THIS ROUNDS THE TROUGH UNTIL ANY SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW WILL BE MADE. SO I DON'T LOOK FOR MUCH MOVEMENT OF THE LOW OVERNIGHT...IF ONLY A SLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST PUSH. SNOW BANDS ALREADY SHOWING UP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES WITH UPSLOPE CONTINUING. AS WRAP AROUND ENHANCEMENT SINKS SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS. WILL UP POPS AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL...EXCEPT LEAVE THEM SCATTERED AT LIVINGSTON PER COORDINATION WITH GTF. SNOW NOW BEING REPORTED AT RED LODGE...SO HIGHER POPS THERE LOOK IN LINE. COLDEST AIR UNDERNEATH THE LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. DESPITE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TO DROP LOWS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS ALREADY AT FORECAST LEVELS. OTHER THAN UPPING POPS SOUTH CENTRAL THE SNOW FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT PLAY WITH TOO MUCH. UPDATES WILL BE FORTHCOMING BY 915 PM. HUMPHREY BIL JE 024/035 024/041 026 55+322 LVM .. 022/039 022/044 ... 554322 HDN .. 022/038 022/043 ... 55+322 MLS .. 016/033 023/039 ... 558423 4BQ .. 017/030 024/036 ... 558423 BHK .. 015/030 021/036 ... 558423 SHR JJ 019/035 021/041 023 558423 NNNN mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 917 PM EST SAT APR 3 1999 LOTS GOING ON THIS EVENING WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA POPPING IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF APCHG VORTMAX THAT DROVE CONVECTIVE LINE THRU OH EARLIER. TT INDICES DID SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA THIS EVE. MEANWHILE...QSNTRY FRONT POISED TO MOVE SWD TONITE ONCE WAVE SLIPS EAST WITH MUCH SHARPER AMS DISCONTINUITY READY TO PLOW INTO REL MILD AND MOIST AIR. MDLS PRETTY CLOSE ON TIMING...BUT FROM INITIALIZATIONS AND CURRENT MOVEMENT I'LL FOLLOW 18Z ETA. THIS IS A WEE BIT SLOWER THAN 12Z RUNS AND 21Z RUC SEEMS TO AGREE. FROPA SHUD BE LATER TONITE 08Z-12Z UP NORTH AND BY 15Z HERE IN SRN TIER...THEN 15-18Z FOR NE PA. WITH SHRA IN AREA AND SWATH OF RA MOVG IN FROM WRN NY...WL NOT MAKE TOO MANY MAJOR CHANGES TO PCP FCST TONITE ASIDE FM INTRODUCING SOME TSRA. POOL OF 48 TT INDEX ALONG FRONT AS WELL AS DECENT MOIST CONVG AND THE DPVA SUPPORTING DEEPER LIFT TIPS MY HAND TO INCLUDE MENTION...ALTHO DIURNAL STABILIZATION WILL LIMIT TO ISOLD AT BEST. WILL ALSO BRING THAT NOTION INTO THE EARLY AM TO ACCOUNT FOR FRONTAL MOVEMENT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LONGER TERM DURATION WILL BE WY VALLEY WHERE FROPA WILL BE ENCROACHING ON LATER MORNING AND POSSIBLY A FEW HOURS OF DAYLIGHT DESTABILIZATION. LAYER FNTOGEN FORCING ALSO RATHER IMPRESSIVE IN NRN TIER UP THRU 18Z ALTHO MCON AND THTE ADVN SHIFTS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH TWD BEST INSTAB. NOW TO TEMPS. ANOTHER NIGHTMARE WITH MARITIME INFLUENCE STILL INTO CATSKILLS AND SERNMOST PA COS...AND EXPECTED FROPA IN NRN ZONES BY SUNUP. WL BUMP TEMPS UP A BIT OVER SRN TIER AND WY VALLEY IN THE MILD MOIST AIR BUT KEEP MINS IN 40S UP NORTH AND ALSO FAR EAST. WITH RAIN COOLED AIR PSBLY MIXING DOWN IN THE CONVECTION...IT'S ALL A CRAP SHOOT REALLY. TEMPS LIKELY TO FALL IN MUCH OF AREA SUN AND 2ND PERIOD LOOKS GOOD THIS WAY. .BGM...NONE. BREWSTER NNNN ny EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 810 PM CST SAT APR 3 1999 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEARING ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. MESONET AND LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AS FORECAST. LATEST RUC OUTPUT HAS BOUNDARY LAYER RH HANGING ON INTO THE MORNING IN EASTERN ZONES AND WITH HINTS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ALREADY...WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING IN ARKANSAS ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL UPDATE ZONES MAINLY FOR TIMING WORDING...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. HOWIESON FCSTID = 44 .TUL... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. NNNN ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 845 PM CST SAT APR 3 1999 NO UPDATES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH ZONES. RUC INDICATING ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT WILL END NEAR MIDNIGHT AND MAY AS THE LATE EVENING PROGRESS REMOVE MENTION OF LIGHT PCPN IN ERN CWA WHEN PCPN ENDS. ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT OVER WRN CWA ATTM DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP IN PRODUCING FOG TNGT. WL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AND AMD IF NEW MDLS DICTATE. .FSD...NONE BR NNNN sd SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 900 PM CST SAT APR 3 1999 RECENT SFC ANALYSES SHOW THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT BOUNDARY FROM LRD TO HDO TO JUST WEST OF HOU TO NEAR BPT THEN LFK. KHGX CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM JAPSER AND NEWTON COUNTIES SWWRD TO HARRIS COUNTY. RADAR ESTIMATES AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER POLK AND SAN JACINTO COUNTIES SINCE LATE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPDATE ISSUE IS ASSESSING CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE IAH MAPS SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE CAPPED AND DRY LOWER LEVELS OF CRP AND LCH. THE IAH SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.80 INCHES...LI OF -7...AND CAPE AROUND 1650 J/KG. THE HODOGRAPH IS STRAIGHT-LINE WITH VERY LITTLE SPEED IN THE LOWEST 3 KM...AND THE WARM CLOUD DEPTH (>0C) IS NEAR 4.5 KM. THE 00Z RUC INDICATES A DECREASE IN THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE AFTER 06Z...AND OVERALL REDUCTION IN INSTABILITY AS CAPPING DEVELOPS. OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER ARE THE PROXIMITY AND NEARLY 90 DEGREE INCIDENCE ANGLE OF THE MOIST MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE BOUNDARY...AND ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAY FIRE UP ACTIVITY IN DEEP SOUTH TX LATER. OVERALL...WILL GO WITH SEVERE THREAT ENDING AT 900 PM...AND HOLD OFF ON AN FFA IN FAVOR OF HIGH POPS WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE MENTION FOR THE NERN 1/4 OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE FOG AND LOW/NO POPS FOR MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. .HGX...SCA 20 TO 50 NM OFFSHORE. 31/36 UPDATE PRELIMS... CLL ET 056/077 065/079 062 034 IAH ET 064/078 068/080 064 834 GLS ET 068/076 069/077 068 844 NNNN tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 215 AM EST SUN APR 4 1999 MAIN FCST PROBLEMS INCLUDE PCPN TIMING TODAY...CLOUD COVER/FOG TONIGHT. 06Z SFC MAP SHOWED LO PRES SE MN WITH TRAILING CDFNT S INTO MO. QSTNRY FNT ALSO EXTENDED E OF LOW INTO C MI. MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES AND HAVE USED A MESH OF ALL. ETA/AVN AND RUC HANDLING CURRENT PCPN OVER SW INDIANA AND ERN IL THE BEST. HAVE FOLLOWED THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY. IN LATER PDS...ETA CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST AND WEAKEST WITH LIFTING NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT OF SW US AND INTO PLAINS. NGM/AVN DEEPER...SLOWER AND MAINTAIN A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTS PER WATER VAPOR WITH UPSTREAM KICKER SEEN MOVING SE ACRS THE GULF OF AK. EXPECT THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW TO FOLLOW SIMILAR TRACK AS FIRST...CLOSER TO NGM/AVN SOLUTIONS. FOR TODAY...CURRENT AREA OF PCPN TO MOVE N AND NE AHEAD OF SFC LOW. INSTABILITY NOT THAT GREAT BUT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THUNDER MENTION THIS MORNING. LATEST 88D MOSAIC SHOWS EMEDDED HIGHER RETURNS AND LDS SHOWING SOME CG STRIKES ERN IL. PCPN SHOULD END ACRS WRN AREAS DURG THE AM AND FAR ERN AREAS IN THE LATE PM. MODELS DO HANG ONTO AN AREA OF HIGHER RH FM NW OHIO TO NE INDIANA AND SRN LWR MI THRU TNGT. THIS LOOKS TO BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BLO INVERSION AS SEEN ON FCST SOUNDINGS. ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP OVR WRN AREAS TNGT. THIS WL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING OCCURS. NEGATIVE FACTOR WL BE TIGHTING PRES GRADIENT FM NRN HI AND DVLPG PLAINS LOW. SRLY FLOW REDEVEOPS MONDAY AS SECOND SW US LOW LIFTS OUT OF PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO KICKER. NGM/AVN HANDLE MOVEMENT THE BEST. FURTHER WEST POSITION WL KEEP PCPN OUT OF FA TIL MONDAY NIGHT OR TUE. TEMPS A BIT TRICKY WITH NRN FNT SAGGING S THEN CDFNT TO W MOVING THROUGH. ANY SS TODAY SHOULD HELP TEMPS REBOUND. EXPECT READINGS CLOSER TO WARMER FWC IN WEST WITH SS AND CLOSER TO COOLER FAN IN NE AND E WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND RAIN. SBN TB 066/043 063/046 064 1451- FWA TB 063/043 062/045 064 1482- AOH TB 064/045 063/046 065 1482- .IWX...NONE. LASHLEY NNNN in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 455 AM EDT SUN APR 4 1999 08Z SFC ANAL SHOWS AREA OF LOW PRES GRAD FILLING AS IT DRIFTS NE ACROSS ERN MN. NRLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY STRETCHING ACROSS THE SRN GRTLKS PRGD BY MODELS TO REMAIN NRLY STATIONARY TDA AND THEN WASH OUT TNGT AS UPR SUPPORT IS LOST. LEAD VORT LOBE ROTATES N IN SW FLOW ALOFT PER GOES-8 WV DATA JUST BRUSHING WRN GRTLKS TDA. PROGRESS EAST OF THIS VORT INHIBITED BY BLOCKING SHRTWV RIDGE ACROSS CNTRL GRTLKS AND UPR LOW FURTHER DOWNSTREAM OVR CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS MARITIMES LOW MOVES OFF SHORE BY 36-48 HRS... NEXT POTENT SRN STREAM UPR LVL TROF ALLOWED TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY 00Z TUES. PRIMARY FCST CONCERN THIS PACKAGE IS POTENTIAL FOR FREZ RAIN/ICING NW AND N CNTRL U.P. TDA. PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS CNTRL U.P. SINCE 06Z AS ISENT LIFT GRADUALLY INCREASING NORTH OF SFC BNDRY. TEMPS NEAR FREZ OVR INTERIOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MQT CO ALLOWING FOR SOME FREEZING OF RAIN... HOWEVER GREATER INTENSITY RAIN ACTUALLY MELTING SOME OF THE ICE ALREADY ACCUMULATED ON ABV GROUND SURFACES. AWIPS LAPS SFC/BNDLYR STREAMLINES DEPICTING FLOW ACROSS U.P. BCMG MORE EASTERLY AS SFC HI TO THE NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR DUMBBELLS TO THE EAST... AND LOW TO THE SW GRADUALLY FILLS. MORE EASTERLY FLOW RESULTING IN MORE MODIFIED AIR TO ADVECT INTO CNTRL/WRN U.P. RATHER THAN LOWER DWPT/TEMP AIR TO THE NE OF LK SUPERIOR... WHICH WILL LIMIT DEPTH TO WHICH SUB FREEZING SFC LAYER WILL DVLP TDA. OTHER LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE WHICH GIVEN LACK OF LOW LVL CAA SHUD STILL RESULT IN MINOR (1-3 DEG F) DIURNAL RISE IN SFC TEMPS DESPITE CLDS/PCPN WHICH NEAR 32 DEG IS ACTUALLY CRITICAL. ALSO SHALLOWNESS OF SFC SUB-FREEZING LAYER MAY BE INSUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR GREATER INTENSITY PCPN DROPLETS TO BECOME SUPERCOOLED BEFORE STRIKING THE SFC GIVEN DEEP WARM LAYER ALOFT. HENCE XPECT GREATEST ICING THREAT TO EXIST IN COLDER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LK SUPERIOR ACROSS FAR NW-N U.P. (HOUGHTON- KEWEENAW-BARAGA-MQT COS) AS PRGD BY MODEL 1000-850 THICKNESS DATA AND FCST SOUNDINGS. AREA OF PCPN LIFTING N ACROSS MN/WI SHUD INCREASE AND OVRSPRD WRN UP MI THIS MRNG AS 06Z RUC AND 00Z ETA SHOWING STRENGTHENING ISENT LIFT THRU THE 285-290K LAYER. RUC SHOWING DECENT DYNAMIC COOLING AT H85 DESPITE WAA PATTERN INDICATIVE OF INTENSIFYING ISENT LIFT. STRONG ADIABATIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE PROFILE ALOFT PER FCST SOUNDING DATA AND THETA CROSS SECTIONS WARRANT MENTION OF THUNDER OVR THE W HALF OF THE U.P. TDA AS WELL. LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING A DECREASING TREND IN STRIKES ACROSS ERN MN/NW WIS SINCE 06Z HWVR LITTLE DEC IN RADAR REFLECTIVITIES PER GRB/MPX/DLH MOSAIC. GIVEN WARM GROUND PER PREVS WEEK OF ABV FREZ TEMPS... AND SFC TEMPS CLOSE TO 32 F... DO NOT XPECT ICING TO BECOME A PROBLEM ON HIGHWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. MAIN THREAT IS TO TREES AND POWER LINES AND OTHER ABOVE GROUND STRUCTURES. STRONG EAST WINDS... ESPECIALLY OVR EXPOSED EAST SIDE OF KEWEENAW MAY AGGRAVATE THREAT TO TREES/POWER LINES. .MQT...ICE STORM WARNING... HOUGHTON-KEWEENAW-BARAGA-MARQUETTE CO/S... TODAY. ED F NNNN mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 642 AM CDT SUN APR 4 1999 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE 09Z RUC MODEL INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...AND FORECAST SOUNDING FOR SJT SUGGESTS THAT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. WILL SEND WRKSJ1 MOMENTARILY TO INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS TODAY. PRESENCE OF MORE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE HIGHS...SO WILL ADJUST DOWNWARD TO MID 70S. 19 NNNN tx EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1030 AM CDT SUN APR 4 1999 HAD TO MAKE QUITE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED ON OBSERVED DATA AND NEW 12Z NGM AND RUC MODELS...ALTHOUGH NGM IS STILL CLUELESS ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. MESONET DATA SHOWS SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND 60+ SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE STARTING TO CREEP INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OKLAHOMA. 65+ DEWPOINTS NOT FAR BEHIND AND AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THIS MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. NGM AND RUC ARE BOTH CONSISTENT IN BREAKING OUT CONVECTION ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND VIRGA ALSO EVIDENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND NGM DEPICTS STRONG LIFT NEAR PONCA CITY BY LATE AFTERNOON SO MAY ALSO SEE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA AS MOISTURE AND HENCE INSTABILITY REALLY INCREASES BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO WILL ADD SOME POPS TO ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED WIND DIRECTION TO SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR THE AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT REMOVED ALL TEMPORAL WORDING AND ALSO SHIFTED THE EMPHASIS FROM STRATIFORM RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO A CONVECTIVE EVENT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FIRST 6 TO 9 HOURS OF THE PERIOD BEFORE AN EXPECTED SQUALL LINE RACES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LAST 3 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AM MORE IMPRESSED BY THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS EVENT THAN I WAS WITH THE LAST ONE AND LOOK WHAT HAPPENED WITH THAT ONE. LEFT MIMIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR TONIGHT SINCE SQUALL LINE AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW SHOULD DROP READINGS TO THOSE FORECAST TOWARDS MORNING. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 65 TO 70 RANGE IN MOST AREAS. DRAMATICALLY INCREASED THE DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE RDF PRODUCT MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT WE WERE THINKING YESTERDAY AND WITH WHAT OBSERVED DATA SUGGESTS WILL INDEED OCCUR. SO OBVIOUSLY SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MUCH HIGHER WITH THESE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S THAN IT WOULD HAVE BEEN WITH THE 40S WE CURRENTLY HAVE FORECAST. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT SINCE THE SYSTEM YESTERDAY SLOWED MORE THAN FORECAST WILL LEAVE EVERYTHING ALONE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. .TUL... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. PLATE NNNN ok