AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 907 PM EST WED NOV 3 2004 .DISCUSSION...YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (FA). THE TLH MAX OF 85 DEGREES CAME WITHIN A DEGREE OF TYING THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE. ABY ALSO MISSED BY A DEGREE. A COOL DOWN IS ON THE WAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE STUBBORN RIDGE IS FINALLY GIVING WAY TO THE SE AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS MOVING NWD UP THE MID MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING VERY SLOWLY ACROSS ERN MS. A PREFRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM E CENTRAL AL SW ACROSS THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES OF THE DAY SHOWED THAT THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDED WELL INTO THE GULF BEYOND THE RANGE OF COASTAL RADARS. THE FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ORTHOGONAL TO IT OVERNIGHT INTO THU. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BY THE TIME IT CROSSES OUR CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES. UPPER DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE A BIG FACTOR, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK DPVA BY THU AFTERNOON. THE 18Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING WITH FROPA AT DHN AROUND 14-15Z, TLH AROUND 18-19Z, AND CTY AROUND 23-00Z. THIS MEANS FROPA WILL BE DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. && .UPDATE...TONIGHT'S POP DISTRIBUTION LOOKS FINE, EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WRN ZONES WHERE THEY WILL BE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL. WILL BLEND THIS WITH EXISTING POPS FURTHER E. WE ALSO PLAN TO RAISE THE POP FOR THU UP TO A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV. THIS WILL BETTER BLEND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND IS ALSO JUSTIFIED BY OUR PREFERENCE FOR THE GFS/ETA SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OF THE MODELS AND THE ETA IS PRETTY CLOSE TO IT AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE PREFRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY NARROW, OVERALL COVERAGE DURING THE 12 HOUR PERIOD FROM 12Z THU TO 00Z FRI SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THESE POPS. THE 18Z MAV NUMBERS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD SLIGHTLY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE ERN BIG BEND. && .MARINE...ONLY CHANGE PLANNED FOR TONIGHT IS TO START WINDS OUT SELY PER MARINE OBS BEFORE VEERING TO S AND SW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL THU. DAY SHIFT KEPT WINDS BELOW CAUTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOWED SOLID CAUTION WINDS (15-20 KT) BEHIND IT IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW. MARGINAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN OFFSHORE SEAS. && .FIRE WEATHER...LOOKING FOR 4 HOUR DURATIONS OF RH AOB 35 % ACROSS OUR FL ZONES ON FRI BEHIND THE FRONT, ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 15 MPH 20-FT WINDS. FOR THIS REASON, WE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. IT IS LIKELY THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MET ON SAT AS WELL. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 120 PM EST WED NOV 3 2004 SHORT TERM...WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FINALLY BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON, FEEL INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT ABOUT THE BEST POP WINDOW LASTING FROM TONIGHT INTO THU FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUING TO EJECT OFF TO THE NE, THIS LINE SHOULD FURTHER ELONGATE AND WEAKEN, RELEGATING THE HIGHEST POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS FURTHER TO THE NW. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT ITSELF TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE THU AFTERNOON, WITH THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH ON FRI. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE YEAR THUS FAR ON FRI NIGHT. LONG TERM...PERIOD BEGINS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON FRI MORNING. THIS MEANS THAT FRI NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE. ENSEMBLE MEX GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD AT TLH OF 44 TO 35 WITH AN OPERATIONAL 40 DEGREES FORECASTED. AT THIS POINT HAVE TRENDED DOWN TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD AS YESTERDAYS MOS WAS BY AVERAGE 3 DEGREES WARMER FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT MORN THAN TODAYS PACKAGE. IF CURRENT TREND CONTINUES, WE COULD SEE SOME LOCATIONS IN THE CWA DROP BELOW THE 40 DEGREE MARK BY SAT MORNING. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED, HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DOMINATE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SITUATION AND THEREFORE HAVE NO SENSIBLE WEATHER PREDICTED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED UNTIL WED AFTERNOON AND THU. ON THESE DAYS, A SLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY MODELED BY THE GFS TO PASS ON FRI, THOUGH EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT IT MAY BE AT LEAST SAT NIGHT BEFORE THIS FRONT PASSES. NEVERTHELESS, THE SLY FLOW ON WED AND THU NECESSITATE INTRODUCING 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF -SHRA OVER THE WRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AN THEN EXPANDING CWA WIDE BY THU. FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE PERIOD, AS MENTIONED., WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY MEX GUIDANCE FOR SAT MORNING WITH A LOW AT MANY SITES NEAR 40. THEREAFTER, WILL WARM UP THE MINS EACH DAY BY TWO TO THREE DEGREES AS MODELS AND EXPERIENCE SUGGEST. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO EXCEPT FOR SAT AND SUN, WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE LOW 70S. && PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 66 78 52 70/ 30 60 10 00 PFN 70 76 52 68/ 50 70 10 00 DHN 66 74 47 67/ 90 60 10 00 ABY 66 75 49 68/ 50 60 10 00 VLD 65 81 53 70/ 20 60 20 00 CTY 64 83 55 71/ 25 40 20 00 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...FIRE WX WATCH FRI ALL BUT IMMEDIATE COAST. && $$ UPDATE: WOOL SHORT TERM: GOULD LONG TERM: GODSEY fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 155 PM MST WED NOV 3 2004 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) TONIGHT/THURSDAY...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY KICK OUT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW. AT THE SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SWING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA 09Z-15Z. FSL RUCII AND ETA12 DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THAT TIME FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT MAY BRIEFLY CLIMB INTO THE WINDY CATEGORY IN THE MORNING THEN DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW MODERATING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. FRIDAY/SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE. SURFACE FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH IN WEST TEXAS WILL SUPPORT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TEEN BOTH DAYS. COMBINED WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND FULL INSOLATION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW 60S ON FRIDAY AND UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY. ETA 2M TEMPERATURE FORECAST PREFERRED. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF COOL DOWN WITH BACK DOOR FRONT ON SUNDAY....THEN TIMING/TRACK OF CUT OFF SYSTEM IN DESERT SOUTHWEST. LONG TERM PERIOD SHOWS AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN WITH RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST. CUT OFF SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY UNDER THE RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY TO SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. BACK DOOR FRONT TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL BE TO THE EAST...BUT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND 850 TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5C COOLER THAN SATURDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. ON MONDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH RECIRCULATED COOL AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHEAST WINDS. PLAN ON UNDERCUTTING MEX HIGHS SLIGHTLY THIS DAY. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN...WITH UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. GFS HAS SHOWN A BIAS IN THE EXTENDED THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS OF BEING TOO FAST/DEEP WITH UPPER TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST...AND BELIEVE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. 12Z RUN OF THE GFS BEARS LITTLE RESEMBLANCE TO THE 00Z RUN...MUCH SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM...LOOKING MORE LIKE THE ECMWF. THUS EXPECT TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE LOW. CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING MAXIMUM POTENTIAL. MULLING OVER 12Z ENSEMBLE RUNS OF THE GFS...AND COMPARING THEM TO THE ECMWF TIMING...IT APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL SUPPORT TO MENTION A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TO MAINTAIN INTERNAL FORECAST CONSISTENCY...WILL HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES ARE REACHED...THEN RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE TREND CONTINUES...WEDNESDAY COULD BE A COLD AND WINTRY DAY. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ JDK ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1055 AM CST WED NOV 3 2004 .DISCUSSION... UPPER LOW IN OK STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING NE INTO CEN MO THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO SRN KS ATTM ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295-300K THETA SFC. BUT A SHARP CUTOFF NOTED ON THE NRN EDGE ALONG A ICT-EMP LINE AS SOME LOW LAYER DRY AIR IS AVECTED INTO AREAS JUST NORTH OF ICT. ENHANCED AREA OF SHRA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE GREATEST FRONTOGENISIS, JUST SOUTH OF ICT, IN THE 925-850H LAYER OR ALONG THE NOSE OF THE TROWAL. RUC CONTINUES TO TAKE THIS FRONTOGENISIS/TROWAL REGION AND LIFTS IT NE INTO ERN/NERN KS BY THIS AFTN, WITH SHRA ACROSS SRN KS PIVOTING NEAR ICT. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH DEF POPS IN AREAS SE OF ICT, BUT CUT BACK POPS TO BELOW 20 IN CEN KS AS SHARP CUTOFF ROTATES NE THIS AFTN. WILL ALSO KEEP SLIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX CHC WORDING IN SOME COUNTIES NORTH OF ICT AS RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ICE CRYSTALS COULD MAKE IT TO THE GROUND NORTH OF ICT. KETCHAM --------------------------------------------------------------- 329 AM CST WED NOV 3 2004 .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FCST CONCERNS... NW EXTENT OF PCPN TODAY AND POTNL FOR A LTL WET SNOW IN THE MIX... UPR LOW OVR NW TX PROGD TO MOV NEWD INTO SERN KS BY THIS EVENING. PCPN SHIELD NOW OVR OKLA WL CONT TO MAKE STEADY NWD PROGRESS INTO THE CWA, SUPPORTED BY ISENTROPIC AND DEEP DYNAMIC LIFT IN NERN QUAD OF APCHG UPR SYSTEM. MUCH DRIER AIR ON NW SIDE OF SYS WL RESULT IN SHARP CUT-OFF OF PCPN, PROBLY ALG WRN CORRIDOR OF THE CWA, AND WL CONT TO SHOW SHARPLY GRADED POPS WITH DDC/GID CWA'S. POINT FCST SOUNDINGS STILL VRY MARGINAL FOR MIXED/FROZEN PCPN TODAY. HOWEVER POTNL WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SYSTEM MAY STILL LEAD TO NARROW/TRANSIET CORRIDOR OF COOLING TO SUPPORT SOME WET SNOW IN AREA NEAR MAX LIFT UNDER MID LVL TROWEL. OTHERWISE, ONLY DECENT DIURNAL TEMP RISE WL OCCUR ON NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA, WITH PERHAPS SOME SUNSHINE TODAY. ANY LINGERING PCPN ACRS THE ERN CWA SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MDNGT, AS UPR TROF EJECTS ENEWD TWD THE MID MS VLY TNGT. NRN STREAM UPR TROF DIVING SEWD ACRS THE GRTLKS LATE THU, WL SEND A MODIFIED CANADIAN/PACIFIC CDFNT SWD ACRS THE AREA. EVEN SO, ANY COOLING WL BE FELT AFTER DARK THU, SO A MILDER DAY THU, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. LTL CHG TO FCST BEYOND, WITH WARM-UP INTO FRI/SAT AND DRY. DARMOFAL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 46 35 57 33 / 70 10 10 10 HUTCHINSON 47 32 56 31 / 60 10 10 10 NEWTON 45 33 56 32 / 60 10 10 10 ELDORADO 47 35 57 33 / 80 20 10 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 47 36 58 33 / 90 10 10 10 RUSSELL 49 32 53 30 / 20 5 10 10 GREAT BEND 48 32 54 30 / 30 5 10 10 SALINA 48 33 56 32 / 40 10 10 10 MCPHERSON 47 32 55 31 / 50 10 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 48 37 58 34 / 90 20 10 10 CHANUTE 46 36 56 33 / 90 30 10 10 IOLA 46 36 56 33 / 90 30 10 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 13/DARMOFAL ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1014 PM EST WED NOV 3 2004 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE FORECAST IS THE LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...A TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A LOW OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. A RIDGE DOMINATES MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. THE SHORTWAVE IS GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND ALONG THE FRONT OVER MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. AND OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL SHIFT INTO WISCONSIN AND INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT WILL EDGE INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. COLD COVER SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND THE SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. AS CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE...THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 430 PM EST WED NOV 3 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES/TIMING/AMOUNTS THU INTO EARLY FRI. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND NRN STREAM FLOW THROUGH SRN CANADA. UPSTREAM SHRTWV LOCATED OVER ALBERTA WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON WEATHER OVER UPR MI ON THU. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED BTWN SFC RDG OVER THE ERN LAKES AND A TROF FROM NW ONTARIO INTO THE DAKOTAS. VIS LOOP SHOWED AREAS OF SC INTO SRN AND ERN UPR MI AS SOUTH WINDS ADVECT LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM EN WI AND LK MI INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED UPSTREAM OVER NW WI AND NRN MN WITH MAIN BAND OF CLOUDS WELL TO THE NORTH OVER ONTARIO. THU INTO FRI MORNING...THE ETA AND GFS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SHRTWV BRUSHING THE UPR GRT LAKES. WHILE THE MAIN BATCH OF 700-300 QVECTOR CONV AND BEST PCPN CHANCES REMAIN N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...A PERIOD OF STRONG DPVA SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SCT PCPN ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN HLF OF UPR MI. GENERALLY USED THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS 1000-850 THICKNESS LINE TO DELINEATE RAIN/SNOW MIX TRANSITION WHICH STILL SUGGESTS -SHSN OVER -SHSN/-SHRA SPREADING ACRS THE WEST HLF DURING THE AFTERNOON. H8 TEMPS INTO THE -2C TO -5C RANGE OVER THE ERN LAKE PROVIDING LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS. MDL DISPARITIES REMAIN WITH THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR AND MOISTURE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...THE ETA AND ESPECIALLY THE WORKSTATION ETA DEPICT SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER INVERSION HGTS NEAR 875 MB AND H8 TEMPS TO ONLY AROUND -4C WHILE THE GFS SHOWS HAS PERSISTED WITH H8 TEMPS CLOSER TO -7C WITH THE INVERSION HGT TO AROUND 800 MB. AS A RESULT THE ETA/WORKSTATION ETA GENERATE LITTLE OR NO PCPN THU NIGHT OR FRI OVER THE WEST. SINCE THE GFS SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WILL LEAN A BIT IN ITS DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE ETA IS NOT ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED. SO...WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN OVER THE WEST WITH SHORT FETCH WITH NW FLOW...ONLY CHANCE POPS MENTIONED. WITH A LONGER FETCH OVER THE EAST...EXPECT BETTER CHANCE FOR LES WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION INLAND OF AN INCH OR TWO. REST OF FRI INTO SAT...WRLY FLOW WAA PATTERN TAKES OVER BY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD PUSH ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO NE PORTION OF THE CWA EAST OF MUNISING. STRONG WEST WINDS AND DECENT MIXING ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S. SINCE THE 900-800 FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS NE OF THE AREA...LACK OF A BNDRY OR SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SHOULD RULE OUT MEASURABLE PCPN CHANCES THROUGH SAT. SUN-WED...MENTION OF ONLY SLGT CHANCE OF -SHRA WAS RETAINED SAT NIGHT AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SHRTWV AND FRONT AS THE ETA AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE FASTER THAN THE GFS. CRITICAL MDL THICKNESSES SUGGEST ANY PCPN WOULD REMAIN LIQUID. PCPN CHANCES INCREASE SUN WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN BUT LEFT AT CHANCE LEVELS GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT OVER LAKE INSTABILITY TIL LATE IN THE DAY. MDLS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AMOUNT OF PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WHICH WILL BRING A BATCH OF SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR INTO THE WRN LAKES. EVEN IF THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...H8 TEMPS TO AROUND -13C ARE SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF. SO...EXPECT DECENT CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING LES FOR NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND MAINLY DRY AIR FCST UPSTREAM...ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT LIKELY BE TOO HEAVY. WITH SUCH AN AMPLIFIED PATTER...SIDED WITH THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH WOULD DELAY THE END OF THE -SHSN ON TUE. THE NEXT SHRTWV DIGS TOWARD THE LAKES FROM CNTRL CANADA BY MID WEEK WHICH SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW EVEN IF THE TREND OF THE GFS HAS BEEN TOWARD THE ECMWF DEPICTION OF A WEAKER SYSTEM. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 955 PM CST WED NOV 3 2004 .DISCUSSION... AFTERNOON FORECASTS HAVE PANNED OUT WELL. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO GRIDS AND FORECASTS NOW THAT UPPER LOW IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT TO SEE A DEFORMATION BAND AFFECTING AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS LOW TRACK...BUT WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALSO WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP JUST A DEGREE OR TWO AS EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN AND NOT MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTING IN AT THE SURFACE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. PC && .PREV DISCUSSION... 305 PM... AN ELONGATED DEFORMATION ZONE HAS DEVELOPED FROM WICHITA TO KANSAS CITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS TRACKED NORTHEAST. RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS UPPER LOW HAS UNDERGONE SOME DEEPENING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER HAS MOVED ACROSS THE RED RIVER TOWARD OKLAHOMA CITY. THE ETA AND GFS TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE ARE VERY SIMILAR. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING SHOULD BE FROM TOPEKA TO ATCHISON TO TRENTON. RAIN AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH ARE BEING CRANKED OUT BY THE MODELS. ACTUAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER CONSIDERING KIXD AND KDMO PICKED UP ABOUT TWO TENTHS IN THE LAST HOUR. FORTUNATELY THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION BAND SHOULD SET UP NORTH AND WEST OF THE RIVERS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED FLOODING IN RECENT DAYS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO WATCH BIG CREEK, THE SOUTH GRAND, AND THE PETITE SALINE, BUT RAIN INTENSITIES DON'T LOOK SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE PROBLEMS TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE QUITE HIGH OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K SURFACE AROUND 00Z. PRESSURE ADVECTION DIMINISHES QUICKLY BY MID EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND I EXPECT A NARROW RIBBON OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE DEFORMATION ZONE IN NORTHERN MISSOURI. SO I HAVE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY AND TAPERING THEM DOWN CONSIDERABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY TOMORROW MORNING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO DOWNGLIDE, AND CLOUDS WILL ERODE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. DOWNGLIDE WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY WINDS BY MID MORNING AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN, AND 900MB WINDS AROUND 30KTS TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30MPH SHOULD BE COMMON WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED IN SEVERAL WEEKS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE AREA SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAST. KOCH UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...TRANSLATING TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAX FORECAST AREA. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SOLUTIONS VARY REGARDING THE EJECTION OF THIS LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. AT THIS POINT FAVOR THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE DAY 7 POPS AT THIS POINT. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...ANTICIPATE THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO SUPPRESS MID/UPPER RIDGING DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SCHMIT 353 AM... MAIN FOCUS OF THIS MORNINGS FORECAST CENTERED ON THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS RAIN SPREADS NORTH INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI. UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA PLACE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR ABILENE TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONG JET STREAK (80+ KNOTS AT 500MB) TRACKING UP THE LEADING SIDE. THE 00Z MODEL RUN SHOWED GOOD INITIALIZATION WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IN TEXAS. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ETA SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 06Z TIME FRAMES...IN ADDITION TO DISPLAYING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. OF COURSE PRECIP FIELDS DON'T MATCH EXACTLY...BUT GENERAL SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND TIMING ISSUES ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE. THE ETA IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE ONSET AND EXIT OF RAIN...BUT THE GFS DOES NOT DIFFER SO MUCH THAT I FEEL I HAVE TO CHOSE ONE MODEL OVER THE OTHER. FOR TODAY THE ISSUES TO MAKE A DECISION ON WERE 1) THE NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND 2) IF A RAIN SNOW MIX MIGHT NEED ADDING TO THE PRECIP TYPE FORECAST AT THE END OF THE EVENT. SECOND THINGS FIRST...THE MIDLAND SOUNDING IN TEXAS IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND IT LOOKS COLD. ADDITIONALLY...AREAS UNDER THE LOW FROM AMARILLO THROUGH MIDLAND HAVE BEEN RECEIVING SNOW. HOWEVER...THOSE LOCATIONS ARE NEARLY 2000 FEET HIGHER IN ELEVATION...AND WHILE THE SOUNDING IS COLD OUR SURFACE LAYER IN KANSAS AND MISSOURI IS STILL WARM. AS FOR DYNAMIC COOLING EFFECTS THAT COULD BOMB THE LOW OUT...THERE ARE A FEW ARGUMENTS AGAINST IT HAPPENING. THE JET THAT DUG OUT THE LOW IS NOW HEADING UP THE LEADING EDGE OF THE THE LOW...WHICH WILL NOT HELP THE LOW DIG MUCH MORE THAN IT ALREADY HAS. ALSO...THE LOW HAS A NICE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RAPPED UP IN ITS CORE THROUGH 500MB...AND I AM NOT SEEING MUCH CHANCE OF ENOUGH DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THIS WELL DEVELOPED CIRCULATION TO CAUSE CONCERNS WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING. NOW FOR THE FIRST ISSUE. THE ETA IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH PRECIP...BUT THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF QPF FORECAST BY EITHER THE ETA OR GFS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR...ABOUT 1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH FOR THE EVENT. THIS IS A FAIRLY LOW QPF AMOUNT TO BE TALKING ABOUT FLOODING POTENTIAL...BUT THE HEAVY RAIN FROM EARLY THIS WEEK HAS LEFT HEADWATER GUIDANCE AROUND 0.5 TO 0.7 OF AN INCH FOR SOME CENTRAL MISSOURI RIVERS AND CREEKS. CURRENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS LOOK TO BE CARRYING THE HEAVIER QPF TOTALS FARTHER WEST...AWAY FROM THE AREAS OF CONCERN IN CENTRAL MO. THIS AGREES WITH THE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT FOCUSING MORE IN FAR WEST MO AND EASTERN KS AS THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. SO WHILE NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED...THE LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL MO THAT HAVE JUST DIPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL NEED AN EYE KEPT ON THEM. TEMPERATURE WISE...BUMPED THEM UP A LITTLE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPS IN MOST OF MISSOURI LOOK TO START OFF A LITTLE WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...AND GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK A LITTLE LOW FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THE PRECIP AND AND CLOUD COVER. PRECIP FORECAST LOOKED TO NEED NO CHANGES OTHER THAN ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF PLACEMENT. CUTTER && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 305 PM CST WED NOV 3 2004 .DISCUSSION... AN ELONGATED DEFORMATION ZONE HAS DEVELOPED FROM WICHITA TO KANSAS CITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS TRACKED NORTHEAST. RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS UPPER LOW HAS UNDERGONE SOME DEEPENING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER HAS MOVED ACROSS THE RED RIVER TOWARD OKLAHOMA CITY. THE ETA AND GFS TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE ARE VERY SIMILAR. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING SHOULD BE FROM TOPEKA TO ATCHISON TO TRENTON. RAIN AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH ARE BEING CRANKED OUT BY THE MODELS. ACTUAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER CONSIDERING KIXD AND KDMO PICKED UP ABOUT TWO TENTHS IN THE LAST HOUR. FORTUNATELY THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION BAND SHOULD SET UP NORTH AND WEST OF THE RIVERS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED FLOODING IN RECENT DAYS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO WATCH BIG CREEK, THE SOUTH GRAND, AND THE PETITE SALINE, BUT RAIN INTENSITIES DON'T LOOK SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE PROBLEMS TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE QUITE HIGH OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K SURFACE AROUND 00Z. PRESSURE ADVECTION DIMINISHES QUICKLY BY MID EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND I EXPECT A NARROW RIBBON OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE DEFORMATION ZONE IN NORTHERN MISSOURI. SO I HAVE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY AND TAPERING THEM DOWN CONSIDERABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY TOMORROW MORNING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO DOWNGLIDE, AND CLOUDS WILL ERODE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. DOWNGLIDE WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY WINDS BY MID MORNING AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN, AND 900MB WINDS AROUND 30KTS TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30MPH SHOULD BE COMMON WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED IN SEVERAL WEEKS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE AREA SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAST. KOCH UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...TRANSLATING TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAX FORECAST AREA. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SOLUTIONS VARY REGARDING THE EJECTION OF THIS LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. AT THIS POINT FAVOR THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE DAY 7 POPS AT THIS POINT. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...ANTICIPATE THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO SUPPRESS MID/UPPER RIDGING DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SCHMIT && .PREV DISCUSSION... 353 AM... MAIN FOCUS OF THIS MORNINGS FORECAST CENTERED ON THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS RAIN SPREADS NORTH INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI. UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA PLACE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR ABILENE TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONG JET STREAK (80+ KNOTS AT 500MB) TRACKING UP THE LEADING SIDE. THE 00Z MODEL RUN SHOWED GOOD INITIALIZATION WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IN TEXAS. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ETA SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 06Z TIME FRAMES...IN ADDITION TO DISPLAYING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. OF COURSE PRECIP FIELDS DON'T MATCH EXACTLY...BUT GENERAL SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND TIMING ISSUES ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE. THE ETA IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE ONSET AND EXIT OF RAIN...BUT THE GFS DOES NOT DIFFER SO MUCH THAT I FEEL I HAVE TO CHOSE ONE MODEL OVER THE OTHER. FOR TODAY THE ISSUES TO MAKE A DECISION ON WERE 1) THE NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND 2) IF A RAIN SNOW MIX MIGHT NEED ADDING TO THE PRECIP TYPE FORECAST AT THE END OF THE EVENT. SECOND THINGS FIRST...THE MIDLAND SOUNDING IN TEXAS IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND IT LOOKS COLD. ADDITIONALLY...AREAS UNDER THE LOW FROM AMARILLO THROUGH MIDLAND HAVE BEEN RECEIVING SNOW. HOWEVER...THOSE LOCATIONS ARE NEARLY 2000 FEET HIGHER IN ELEVATION...AND WHILE THE SOUNDING IS COLD OUR SURFACE LAYER IN KANSAS AND MISSOURI IS STILL WARM. AS FOR DYNAMIC COOLING EFFECTS THAT COULD BOMB THE LOW OUT...THERE ARE A FEW ARGUMENTS AGAINST IT HAPPENING. THE JET THAT DUG OUT THE LOW IS NOW HEADING UP THE LEADING EDGE OF THE THE LOW...WHICH WILL NOT HELP THE LOW DIG MUCH MORE THAN IT ALREADY HAS. ALSO...THE LOW HAS A NICE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RAPPED UP IN ITS CORE THROUGH 500MB...AND I AM NOT SEEING MUCH CHANCE OF ENOUGH DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THIS WELL DEVELOPED CIRCULATION TO CAUSE CONCERNS WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING. NOW FOR THE FIRST ISSUE. THE ETA IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH PRECIP...BUT THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF QPF FORECAST BY EITHER THE ETA OR GFS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR...ABOUT 1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH FOR THE EVENT. THIS IS A FAIRLY LOW QPF AMOUNT TO BE TALKING ABOUT FLOODING POTENTIAL...BUT THE HEAVY RAIN FROM EARLY THIS WEEK HAS LEFT HEADWATER GUIDANCE AROUND 0.5 TO 0.7 OF AN INCH FOR SOME CENTRAL MISSOURI RIVERS AND CREEKS. CURRENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS LOOK TO BE CARRYING THE HEAVIER QPF TOTALS FARTHER WEST...AWAY FROM THE AREAS OF CONCERN IN CENTRAL MO. THIS AGREES WITH THE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT FOCUSING MORE IN FAR WEST MO AND EASTERN KS AS THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. SO WHILE NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED...THE LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL MO THAT HAVE JUST DIPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL NEED AN EYE KEPT ON THEM. TEMPERATURE WISE...BUMPED THEM UP A LITTLE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPS IN MOST OF MISSOURI LOOK TO START OFF A LITTLE WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...AND GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK A LITTLE LOW FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THE PRECIP AND AND CLOUD COVER. PRECIP FORECAST LOOKED TO NEED NO CHANGES OTHER THAN ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF PLACEMENT. CUTTER && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 820 PM EST WED NOV 3 2004 .SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW NOW CUT OFF OVER SRN PLAINS WITH DVLPG BAROCLINIC LEAF TYPE STRUCTURE STRETCHING FROM GULF COAST INTO THE ERN TN VLY AND UP SPINE OF APPALACHIANS. SFC LOW ANALYZED NR AR/TN/MS BORDER WITH STALLED BDY STRETCHING TO THE EAST INTO SE NC. ERN END OF THIS BDY SAGGED SOUTH THROUGH THE RGN EARLIER TODAY ALL ALL AREAS NOW INDICATING NE WINDS WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST ACROSS THE RGN AT MID LVLS AHEAD OF FIRST OF A SERIES OF MID LVL DISTURBANCES. SHOWERS EARLIER ASCD WITH BDY ARE ALL WELL SOUTH OF THE RGN. RUC DOES NOT PUSH BDY NORTH AGAIN TONIGHT. 18Z GFS DOES INDICATE IT WILL WAVE BACK NORTH THURS MRNG AS MID LVL AND SFC LOWS BEGIN TO LIFT NE. WITH BDY IN PLACE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE RGN DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PCPN EARLY THIS EVNG BUT AS OVER RUNNING INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE NIGHT WOULD EXPECT TO SEE PCPN BREAK OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY MRNG. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW CURRENT FORECAST LOWS AS CAA APPEARS LIMITED. ALL THIS APPEARS HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT ZONE PACKAGE SO WILL PLAN NO MAJOR UPDATE. WILL UPDATE GRIDS TO REFLECT DEW POINT TRENDS ACROSS THE NRN CWA. WITH BDY LIFTING NORTH EARLY THURS MRNG EXPECT PCPN TO BECOME INITIALLY MORE SPOTTY IN THE MRNG THEN ALLOW FOR HEATING AND BETTER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT THROUGH THE AFTN. CURRENTLY THIS HANDLED WELL TOO SO WILL NOT UPDATE. && .MARINE...MSAS DEPICTS 1026MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SYRACUSE NY BUILDING DOWN AND INTO REGION. COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THRU CWFA TODAY MIGRATES S AND TOWARD NC/SC BORDER TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK N AS WARM FRONT THURSDAY. SCEC PRESENTLY IN EFFECT FROM HATTERAS N WITH SEAS RUNNING IN NEIGHBORHOOD OF 4-5 FT W/BRISK NE-E 15-20 KT FLOW. WINDS VEER MORE TO SE AND S OVERNIGHT...THEN S-SW THURSDAY AS AFORMENTIONED HIGH SLIDES E INTO ATLANTIC AND WARM FRONT MOVES UP AND OUT. WINDS CRANK TOWARD 15-25 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SCA'S EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS S OF HATTERAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT BY EVENING. ASSOCIATED 1004MB LOW TO THE N DEVELOPS OFF DELMARVA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFIES/TREKS NE ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUES UP INTO GULF OF ST LAWRENCE SATURDAY. GFS HAS LOW IN HEALTHY 985MB RANGE OFF CAPE COD FRIDAY AND BOMBING DOWN TOWARD 975MB REALM HEADING THRU NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY...STRONG SHOT OF CAA ENSUES FRIDAY OVER CWFA AS NW WINDS HIT 20-30 KT MARK. SEAS ALTHOUGH REMAIN AROUND 5-7 FT AND STRONG OFFSHORE NW FLOW WILL LIMIT WAVE HEIGHTS NEARSHORE (0-3 NM) CONSIDERABLY...BUT ROCK BOATERS GOOD SHOULD THEY VENTURE BEYOND. BULK OF HIGH SEAS (10-20 FT) AND NW FLOW (25-35 KTS) TO REMAIN WELL BEYOND 20NM LIMIT. WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SUBSIDE INTO NO-FLAG TERRITORY DURING WEEKEND AS GRADIENT LOOSENS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING UP FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATES. GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS AS WEEKEND WINDS DOWN SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT DIVES OUT OF NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AND SWEEPS ACROSS REGION MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT BRISKLY TO N AT 10-20 KTS AS NEW WORK/SCHOOL WEEK BEGINS. INTERESTING TO LASTLY NOTE...GFS-DRIVEN NWW3 SHOWS PROLONGED N-NE WIND/SWELL WAVE ENERGY TRANSFER ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 8-10 SEC PERIOD FETCH STIRRING UP NORTHERN LEG (HATTERAS N) SEAS INTO A BIT OF A HEAVING FRENZY (7-9 FT) HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THIS IN RESPONSE TO LARGER OFFSHORE SEA HEIGHTS (GULF STREAM AND BEYOND) TO APPEAR FRIDAY/THRU WEEKEND BLEEDING-BACK TOWARD NORTHERN LEG 0-20NM CORRIDOR. HOW MUCH OF THIS LARGER WAVE HEIGHT ENERGY WILL REACH BACK INTO "NEARSHORE" ENVIRONS REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS NWW3 144-162 FCST HR JUNCTURE IN TIME...THOUGH STILL WORTHY TO BE NOTED IF MARINE MINDED. SPRAWLING/TIGHT N-NE P-GRAD AROUND 1032MB PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO CENTERED OVER MID-MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY EARLY-MID WEEK NO DOUBT HELPS TO INITIATE LARGER NUMBERS THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN FUTURE MARINE PACKAGES SHOULD CONSISTENCY COME TO NOAA WAVE WATCH III PASS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ MLF/GC nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 807 PM EST WED NOV 3 2004 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY IS THE BEST INDICATOR OF THE FRONTAL POSITION...WHICH IS FROM NEAR GSO TO RDU TO GSB AND PUSHING SOUTHWEST. WITH PRECIP FALLING INTO THIS DRIER AIR...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER THE CURRENT FORECAST MINS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW AND WILL RAISE THEM TO UPPER 50S SW TO LOWER 50S NE. VORT MAX THAT HAD BROUGHT RAIN TO THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...SO ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THAT RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE ETA/GFS/RUC ALL SHOW INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AFTER 06Z AND A STRENGTHENING 850 MB WIND. THUS POPS WILL REMAIN VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED WITH CATEGORICAL EVERYWHERE BEFORE SUNRISE. PRECIP WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT HOWEVER WITH FEW OTHER LIFTING MECHANISMS. DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL ALSO CAUSE SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND LIMIT PRECIP TOTALS IN THE NORTHEAST. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DGS nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 815 PM CST WED NOV 3 2004 .EVENING UPDATE... POTENT 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO SE SASK PER WATER VAPOR. AREA OF MID CLOUDS/MOISTURE AHEAD OF WAVE...MOSTLY CONCENTRATED IN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO...WHERE CANADIAN RADARS AND OBS INDICATE SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM WINNIPEG EAST TO NORTH OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS. SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH 500 MB WAVE LOCATED FROM NEAR ROSEAU TO HILLSBORO TO BTWN VALLEY CITY AND FARGO AT 02Z. CLEAR SKY AHEAD OF FRONT...WHILE MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR ABOUT 250 MILES OR SO. 850 MB MOISTURE IS SCANT WITH THIS WAVE...AND MINOT RADAR SHOWING VERY LIGHT RETURNS. BUT SURFACE DEW PTS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY SUB 750 MB AIR OVER MAJORITY OF FCST AREA THIS EVENING AND ANY PCPN FALLING IS DRYING UP SO FAR. THUS WILL DROP ISOLD -SHRA MENTION FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY TWO TONIGHT. CANT SEE WHY THIS SYSTEM WILL GATHER MORE MOISTURE AS IT HEADS EAST. RUC SHOWING BEST CHC OF SPRINKLES TO BE IN THE LAKE OF WOODS REGION 06-10Z TIME FRAME SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION THERE. LOWS LOOKING OK RIGHT NOW. AS FOR WINDS...LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH FRONT WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR BLO ALL THEY WAY INTO SASK/ERN MT/NW ND. SFC HIGH DOES BUILD EAST FROM MONTANA INTO ND BY 12Z...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN 850 MB WINDS TO 35-40 KTS AT 12Z PER LATEST NGM. BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION TO ABOUT 3000 FT SO LIMITED MIXING POTENTIAL. WILL MAINTAIN SOME BREEZY WORDING FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR ERN ND AND NW MN....BUT NOT WCNTRL MN AS WINDS THERE WILL NOT INCREASE TIL WELL AFTER SUNRISE. && DTR ------------------------------------------------------------------- PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.... .SHORT TERM... COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH AND NEARING NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING BEHIND FRONT. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN WARM SECTOR. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH FRONT THOUGH...WITH MID 30S DEWPOINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONT. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF FEATURES THROUGH PERIODS...AND WILL USE A MIX FOR GRIDS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS ETA WHICH CONTINUES TO BE DRIER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...WITH GFS GETTING A BIT DRIER WITH EACH RUN. FOR TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. SOME LIFT WILL OCCUR IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITING FACTOR TO EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION. A FEW SITES REPORTING SPRINKLES IN CANADA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS MAINLY IN THE VFR RANGE. SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESS PROFILES SUPPORT ALL LIQUID WITH FROPA TONIGHT. WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND WEAK MOISTURE SOURCE...WILL TRIM POPS BACK INTO ISOLATED CATEGORY FOR ALL AREAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH DECENT MIXING AND 850MB WINDS ABOUT 35KT BY MORNING. FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT A COOLER DAY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD PUSH INTO WINDY CATEGORY AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ABOUT 35KT TO MIX BENEATH 900MB. TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL BEGIN ONCE AGAIN. THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS FALL SOME. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE TO +8C ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH A BREEZY WESTERLY WIND. THIS WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE 50S FOR ALL AREAS. ON SATURDAY...A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPS ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS. .LONG TERM... GFS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. REGION UNDER MID LEVEL SPLIT FLOW WITH NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE OVER FA EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY TOWARDS MIDWEEK WITH LATEST GFS LIFTING SHARP SHORTWAVE THROUGH FA TUE/WED. CANADIAN REMAINS ZONAL HOWEVER ENSEMBLES INDICATING SOME SORT OF TROUGHING HOWEVER AMPLITUDE OF FEATURE VARYING. EVEN MOIST BIAS GFS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PCPN WITH FRONT SUNDAY. BETTER CHANCES POTENTIALLY LATE TUES-WED WITH SHORTWAVE HOWEVER. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THIS LATE IN LONG RANGE WILL HOLD OFF ON PCPN. TEMPERATURES THROUGH PERIOD LOOK AT OR BLO SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ KELLENBENZ/VOELKER nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 945 PM EST WED NOV 03 2004 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...LATEST RUC SHOWS THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH ILM AREA WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER LATE TONIGHT. THERE MAYBE ENOUGH FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT TO FIRE A FEW SHOWERS...SO PLAN ON LEAVING POPS IN FOR THE SC ZONES. WILL TAKE OUT POPS ACROSS GA AS RUC SHOWS MOST OF THE PRECIP STAYING NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW KICKING OUT INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DOWN IN GA WHERE SOME CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATION FOG. OTHER AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY TOO CLOUDY TO SEE SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION. WILL ALSO BRING SOME WIND SPEEDS DOWN TO COME IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS AND THE LATEST RUC FORECAST. && .MARINE...WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS...WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LATEST ETA/GFS ARE SHOWING ONLY MODEST INCREASES IN SPEEDS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL PROBABLY ELECT TO DECREASE SPEEDS JUST A BIT. MENTION OF PATCHY FOG LOOKS FINE ALONG WITH SHOWERS IN THE SC WATERS. && .AVIATION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING. HAVE BROUGHT IN SOME 2SM BR IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH SOME CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SCT CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH CHC FOR TSTMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ PY sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC ISSUED BY NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 317 PM EST WED NOV 3 2004 .SHORT TERM... SFC FRONT ATTM IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. NOT MUCH CONVECTION THIS AFTN WITH SKIES HAVING CLOUDED UP AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE REGION. SOME LIGHT SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SW HALF OF THE CWFA OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...THE BEST UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE NW OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE HAVING A PROBLEM WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS IT DEVELOPS A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND ATTENDANT H5 SHORT WAVE OVER NW SC THIS EVENING WHICH THEN SLIPS ACROSS THE NRN MIDLANDS. THE RUC IS INITIALIZING A FAIRLY POTENT SHORT WAVE ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER. CONVECTION IS INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...BUT THAT SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE NORTH. AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT DRIVES SOUTH TONIGHT...THAT WILL PROVIDE A LLVL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN ZONES. FOR THESE REASONS...WL HAVE A FAIRLY SHARP NW TO SE ORIENTED POP GRADIENT TNGT. COOLER TEMPS WL MAKE IS ABOUT AS FAR S AS CAE BEFORE THE TMB STARTS TO MOVE BACK N AGAIN ON THU. WHILE THE SFC FRONT WL SWEEP THROUGH THU AFTN...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WL BE FAIRLY WEAK W/SW WINDS AHEAD OF IT AND WLY WINDS BEHIND. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS HAVE A GOOD BAND OF DEEP LAYER OMEGA AND RH. WL KEEP LIKELY TO CAT POPS IN THE NRN ZONES IN THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RETREATING WEDGE RIDGE. WL ALSO RAISE POPS A LITTLE IN THE AFTN...TO HIGH CHANCE...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODEL/S SOMEWHAT STRONGER FRONTAL BAND. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT BEST SHEAR SHOULD TRAIL THE BETTER INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER. FRI AND SAT WILL BOTH BE VERY NICE DAYS WITH A RETURN TO MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THERE MAY BE SOME FROST AROUND SAT MORNING. HOWEVER...RIDGE WL BEGIN TO MODIFY AND FLATTEN OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG TROF...SO HIGH CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING LGT WLY FLOW BY SAT MORNING MAY KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING. && .LONG TERM... LATEST GFS IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF IN THAT IT BRINGS ANOTHER STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MON. THE FRONT WL BE DRY...THOUGH THERE MAY ONCE AGAIN BE A CHANCE OF FROST TUE AND WED MORNINGS. && .AVIATION... A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR WEST OF KCAE ATTM...AND COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL BRIEFLY...BUT IMPACT SHOULD BE MINIMAL SO VCSH SHOULD SUFFICE THROUGH MID-EVENING. AS UPGLIDE DEVELOPS OVER STRENGTHENING WEDGE RIDGE TONIGHT...CEILINGS WILL LOWER WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLUMBIA 64 75 47 65 / 70 70 10 10 AUGUSTA 65 77 47 67 / 60 60 10 10 SUMTER 64 76 48 64 / 60 60 10 10 ORANGEBURG 67 78 49 66 / 60 50 10 10 && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ MCAVOY/LANE sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 825 PM CST WED NOV 3 2004 .UPDATE... SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF I-35 AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WINDS...AND THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. #58 && .AVIATION... 517 PM CST WED NOV 3 2004 CIGS BOUNCING UP AND DOWN A BIT SO WILL KEEP TEMPO BELOW 030 FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE HERE AROUND MIDNIGHT...A BIT EARLIER AT ACT. OFTEN STRATUS STOPS MOVING AT SUNSET AND THICKENS UP AGAIN BUT CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE EVEN THOUGH SUN IS GOING DOWN. SUBSIDENCE...DOWNSLOPE WINDS...AND DRYING SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING OVER RADIATIONAL COOLING. CAVOK TOMORROW. 84 && .PREV DISCUSSION... 310 PM CST WED NOV 3 2004 CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE NEWD AS PROGGED BY SHORT TERM RUC/SREF MODEL DATA. CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT WORKING IN CONJUNCTION WITH COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS HAS ALLOWED STRATUS TO REMAIN INTACT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE CLEARING LINE IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN CWA ATTM. CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT...AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES PULLING OUT TO THE NE. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY...WE WILL BE INCLUDING A MENTION OF DZ FROM THE METROPLEX NWD THROUGH END OF THE EVENING PERIOD. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE ETA/GFS/NGM IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON VERY PLEASANT AUTUMN WEATHER PERSISTING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE AREA...AS UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS EJECTS NEWD AND PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD OUT OF CANADA. MEANWHILE... UPPER LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR POSSIBLY EVEN RETROGRADE AS THE POLAR JET BECOMES DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. A SECONDARY SURGE OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPER AN OTHERWISE MODERATE WARMING TREND ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BUT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY AND MARKED ONLY BY A WINDSHIFT. IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO EWD MOTION OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW...AS STRONG UPSTREAM FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMFW/UKMET SOLUTIONS...GIVEN CLIMATOLOGY AND THEIR RECENT PERFORMANCE WITH SIMILAR SCENARIOS. GIVEN AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE BY THIS TIME...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE CERTAINLY WARRANTED BEGINNING IN THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 43 68 41 62 / 10 0 0 0 WACO, TX 42 72 44 66 / 0 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 40 63 39 60 / 10 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 40 65 40 62 / 10 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 41 66 40 61 / 10 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 43 68 42 62 / 10 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 43 68 42 62 / 10 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 44 69 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 44 73 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. && $$ 65/DD tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 517 PM CST WED NOV 3 2004 .AVIATION... CIGS BOUNCING UP AND DOWN A BIT SO WILL KEEP TEMPO BELOW 030 FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE HERE AROUND MIDNIGHT...A BIT EARLIER AT ACT. OFTEN STRATUS STOPS MOVING AT SUNSET AND THICKENS UP AGAIN BUT CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE EVEN THOUGH SUN IS GOING DOWN. SUBSIDENCE...DOWNSLOPE WINDS...AND DRYING SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING OVER RADIATIONAL COOLING. CAVOK TOMORROW. 84 && .PREV DISCUSSION... 310 PM CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE NEWD AS PROGGED BY SHORT TERM RUC/SREF MODEL DATA. CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT WORKING IN CONJUNCTION WITH COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS HAS ALLOWED STRATUS TO REMAIN INTACT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE CLEARING LINE IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN CWA ATTM. CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT...AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES PULLING OUT TO THE NE. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY...WE WILL BE INCLUDING A MENTION OF DZ FROM THE METROPLEX NWD THROUGH END OF THE EVENING PERIOD. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE ETA/GFS/NGM IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON VERY PLEASANT AUTUMN WEATHER PERSISTING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE AREA...AS UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS EJECTS NEWD AND PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD OUT OF CANADA. MEANWHILE... UPPER LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR POSSIBLY EVEN RETROGRADE AS THE POLAR JET BECOMES DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. A SECONDARY SURGE OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPER AN OTHERWISE MODERATE WARMING TREND ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BUT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY AND MARKED ONLY BY A WINDSHIFT. IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO EWD MOTION OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW...AS STRONG UPSTREAM FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMFW/UKMET SOLUTIONS...GIVEN CLIMATOLOGY AND THEIR RECENT PERFORMANCE WITH SIMILAR SCENARIOS. GIVEN AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE BY THIS TIME...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE CERTAINLY WARRANTED BEGINNING IN THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 43 68 41 62 / 10 0 0 0 WACO, TX 42 72 44 66 / 0 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 40 63 39 60 / 10 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 40 65 40 62 / 10 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 41 66 40 61 / 10 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 43 68 42 62 / 10 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 43 68 42 62 / 10 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 44 69 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 44 73 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. && $$ 65/DD tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 310 PM CST WED NOV 3 2004 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE NEWD AS PROGGED BY SHORT TERM RUC/SREF MODEL DATA. CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT WORKING IN CONJUNCTION WITH COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS HAS ALLOWED STRATUS TO REMAIN INTACT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE CLEARING LINE IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN CWA ATTM. CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT...AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES PULLING OUT TO THE NE. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY...WE WILL BE INCLUDING A MENTION OF DZ FROM THE METROPLEX NWD THROUGH END OF THE EVENING PERIOD. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE ETA/GFS/NGM IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON VERY PLEASANT AUTUMN WEATHER PERSISTING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE AREA...AS UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS EJECTS NEWD AND PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD OUT OF CANADA. MEANWHILE... UPPER LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR POSSIBLY EVEN RETROGRADE AS THE POLAR JET BECOMES DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. A SECONDARY SURGE OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPER AN OTHERWISE MODERATE WARMING TREND ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BUT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY AND MARKED ONLY BY A WINDSHIFT. IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO EWD MOTION OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW...AS STRONG UPSTREAM FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMFW/UKMET SOLUTIONS...GIVEN CLIMATOLOGY AND THEIR RECENT PERFORMANCE WITH SIMILAR SCENARIOS. GIVEN AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE BY THIS TIME...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE CERTAINLY WARRANTED BEGINNING IN THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 43 68 41 62 / 10 0 0 0 WACO, TX 42 72 44 66 / 0 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 40 63 39 60 / 10 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 40 65 40 62 / 10 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 41 66 40 61 / 10 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 43 68 42 62 / 10 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 43 68 42 62 / 10 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 44 69 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 44 73 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. && $$ 65/DD tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 928 PM EST WED NOV 3 2004 ANTICIPATE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECASTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LATEST STLT LONGWAVE IR LOOPS SHOW OVERRUNNING/WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE STREAMING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE LOWER TN VLY. THIS WITH THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED IN WRN TN...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E INTO WRN NC. EAST OF THE MNTNS...THE WARM FRONT TURNS SHARPLY SOUTH (THROUGH SC)...A TYPICAL COOL SEASON SCENARIO AS THE SURFACE RIDGE/CAD WEDGE BUILDS FROM THE N. LIMITED UPPER JET DYNAMICS IN PLAY FOR TONIGHT...AS THE SW-NE ORIENTED UPPER JET AXIS (120+ KTS AT 300 MB) REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THE BULK OF THE FORCING THEREFORE IS ROOTED WITH THE DEEPENING WAA/MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE MAIN QUESTION (THEN) CONTINUES TO BE WHEN WILL THE DEGREE/DEPTH OF LIFT/MOISTURE BECOME SUFFICIENT (ESP INTO THE LOWER LEVELS) TO SUPPORT MEASURABLE RAIN. AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A VARIANCE IN TERMS OF THE MOISTURE PROFILE... WITH A DRY SUB-400 MB LAYER AT KWAL WHILE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOTED AT KRNK (THOUGH EVEN HERE A RELATIVELY THICK DRY LAYER WAS NOTED BTWN 650-500 MB). AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS AND MOST RECENT SHORT-RANGE 00Z ETA/RUC PROJECTIONS...DO NOT SEE THE NEED TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FROM SW-NE OVERNIGHT...FROM 40% OVER THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE FCST AREA TO 10% FAR NE. IN TERMS OF MIN TEMPS...MAY NEED TO RAISE LOWS OVER THE FAR NW-N-NE PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE AROUND 40/LOWER 40S ADVERTISED. THIS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...SHOWING ONLY GRADUAL CAA THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE/CAD WEDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. FURTHERMORE...ABSENCE OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL COOLING THROUGH EVAPORATION...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE LOWERING/THICKENING CLOUDS WILL INSULATION. MARINE FORECAST...TOOK DOWN SCA'S FOR THE CHES BAY WATERS S OF SMITH POINT...CSTL WATERS S OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...AND ACROSS CURRITUCK SOUND. NEXT ROUND OF FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN THU NIGHT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CSTL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND S TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. && HURLEY PREVIOUS AFD BELOW... ------------------------------------------------------------------- .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... AFTER SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE THIS AFTN...A QUICK RETURN OF THICKER CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AS DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE OVR TNVLY SPREADS NE. THE LATER TREND OF PCPN ONSET CONTS TO HOLD WITH MOST PCPN NOW EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TNGT ACRS SW FORECAST AREA TO AFTER SUNRISE OVR NE ZONES. STRONG LIFT AND MOIST INFLOW SUGGS THE LIKELIHOOD OF STEADY RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY ESP ACRS NW HALF FORECAST AREA WHICH REMAINS IN STRONG LOW LVL WEDGE PATN. DEEP UPR LOW OVR SOUTHERN PLAINS FILLS AND SHEARS OUT AS IT MOVES THRU OHVLY TMRW. ATTENDANT MAIN SFC LOW WILL TRACK THRU OHVLY ON THU AND UP THRU ST LAW RIVER VALLEY THU NIGHT. MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF SECONDARY SFC WAVE OVER SRN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND ACRS PIEDMONT EARLY THU. SOME INCONSISTENCY DEVELOPS WRT TRACK AS DEEPENING LOW MOVES TWD MID ATLC COAST THU AFTN. ETA FURTHEST INLAND AND WOULD BRING BRIEF WARM SECTOR ACRS SE ZONES. ETA SOLN WIND SHEAR PROFILES AND INCREASING INSTABILITY SUGGS SVR TSTM PSBL AND SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOKED FOR SE HALF FORECAST AREA. A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON THURS WITH STRONG WEDGE HOLDING TEMPS AOA 50F FAR NW COUNTIES WITH READINGS PSBL APPROACHING 70F FAR SE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECT TO BE ABOUT AN INCH BUT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL NEAR CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS AND A GRADUAL COOLDOWN AS PATN SHIFTS TO UPR TROFFING OVR EASTERN STATES. AFTER PHASING SYSTEMS EXIT NE/MID ATLC COAST WITH SOME LINGERING PCPN OVR CSTL AREAS THU EVE...DRY NW FLOW SETTLES ACRS MID ATLC REGION. TRAILING PIECE OF NRN STREAM ENERGY DROPS THRU N MID ATLC/NE STATES FRI BUT LTL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO ONLY SOME MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED. SECONDARY SHOT CAA ARRIVES LATE FRI AND LOWS M-U30S BY SAT MORN PSBL. SFC WIND SHUD HELP KEEP FROST TO A MINIMUM SAT MORN BUT PTCHY FROST PSBL ESP IN PROTECTED AREAS. FLOW GRADUALLY BACKS TO MORE ZONAL DURING UPCOMING WEEKEND AND BLO NORM TEMPS SATURDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON SUNDAY. ANTHR PIECE OF NRN STREAM ENERGY DROPS SE FM CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THRU EASTERN STATES ON MON CARVING OUT DEEP TROF. ANTHR CAA SHOT WILL PUSH OVERNGT LOWS INTO 30S MOST LOCATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH NOSING IN TUE NIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS SUGG PSBL WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT BY WED MORN. && .AVIATION... MNLY VFR THRU THE OVERNIGHT THEN DETERIORATING CONDS TO MVFR/IFR AS PCPN OVERSPREADS FROM SW TO NE WED MORN. && .MARINE...WILL KEEP SCA GOING THIS EVE THEN DIMINISHING WINDS AS CAA WEAKENS OVRNGT. WINDS PICK BACK UP TO STRONG SCA TO GALE CONDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS STRONG CAA SURGE KICKS IN BEHIND DEPARTING MID ATLC COAST LOW PRES. && $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...CULLEN AVIATION/MARINE...BROWN va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 338 AM CST THU NOV 4 2004 .SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE LOW POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING...WITH A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DEFORMATION ZONE AFFECTING THE CWA WITH A NICE BAND OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS BAND RANGE FROM JUST A FEW TENTHS UP TO NEARLY A HALF INCH ACCORDING TO 88-D. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE 500MB UPPER LOW WAS POSITIONED AS OF 00Z OVER EASTERN KANSAS...WHICH HAS MADE PRETTY GOOD PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND RUC PLACES IT NOW OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND MORE OPENED UP THAN 00Z ANALYSIS. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE THE BEST RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING NORTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND PRECIPITATION TO ITS NORTH AND WEST IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) TODAY THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW RAPIDLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE OPENS UP AND EJECTS EAST. EXPECT THAT THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL ALSO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST...AND RAPIDLY DIMINISH FROM ITS SOUTH END. SO... WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR THIS MORNING... EXPECT THAT BY THIS AFTERNOON ONLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL HAVE ANY NEED FOR PRECIP CHANCES...AND THAT ONLY FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT LOOKING SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT FEEL THAT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WILL BE SO STRONG THAT IT WILL OVERCOME ANY LIFT THAT THE VORT MAX CAN PRODUCE...AND WILL ONLY HAVE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WIND SHOULD KICK UP QUITE NICELY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THOUGH...AND ANTICIPATE 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES NEXT 24 HOURS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...ESPECIALLY TODAY WITH THE MODELS SEEMING TO EJECT THE CLOUD COVER TOO QUICKLY...AND HAVE GONE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE VALUES. TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP DURING THE EVENING...BUT DROP OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT TO ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND HAVE GONE WITH COOLER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS. ..LE.. && .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...TEMPERATURES MAIN CHALLENGE WITH UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW THROUGH WEEKEND...THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUCKLES BRIEFLY OVER AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN SW CONUS. AFTER COLD START FRIDAY...BRISK LOW LEVEL W-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH WILL ADVECT DRY PACIFIC AIRMASS INTO AREA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMP RECOVERY INTO 50S. DISCOUNTED GFS AND MAV COOLER TEMPS AS MODEL HAD TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ONLY SHALLOW MIXING DEPICTED. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS COUPLED FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT PREFERRED LOWER MET TEMPS WITH ITS DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGH PLAINS H8 THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER REGION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH GREAT LAKES PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. KEPT DAYTIME HIGHS MILD THROUGH WEEKEND WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE SEVERAL DAYS RUNS TREND OF LESSENING IMPACT OF DEVELOPING EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH EARLY WEEK. LATEST RUNS HAVE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLING INTO GREAT LAKES AND ONLY GLANCING BLOW OF COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO AREA. GFSX AND ECMWF KEEP H8 0 DEG C ISOTHERM WELL TO NORTHEAST. THUS TRENDED CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S MON...WARMING TO 50S ON TUES. DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TUESDAY MORNING MINS TO DROP INTO UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. MID WEEK GETS INTERESTING WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS SW CONUS UPPER LOW ROTATES NORTHEAST TOWARD AREA...SIMILAR TO CURRENT SYSTEM. TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS...BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL JUSTIFIED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN PRECIP TYPE A CONCERN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY IF PHASING OF STREAMS INDICATED BY GFS COMES TO PASS. ..SHEETS.. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ LE/SHEETS ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 240 AM CST THU NOV 4 2004 .DISCUSSION... EARLY THIS MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAYS RAIN...IS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALSO EVIDENT ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ALONG THE USA/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WAVE WILL PICK UP OUR CLOSED LOW THIS MORNING...AND QUICKLY ADVECT IT EAST AROUND DAYBREAK. FARTHER WEST A LARGE/DEEP CUTOFF LOW CAN BE SEEN SLIDING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST LINE. TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW...OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...A STRONG JET CAN BE SEEN IN THE UPPER AIR OBS AND SATELLITE DATA. FOR TODAY...THE DEPARTING LOW WILL TAKE ITS RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WITH IT. JUST KEPT SOME MENTION OF DRIZZLE ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE CWA...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. THIS IS SIMPLY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND MESOETA QPF FIELDS...WHICH ARE NOT DOING TOO BAD. AS THE RAIN GOES SO WILL THE CLOUD COVER...ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER. SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH WILL NOT ONLY TAKE THE LOW AWAY...BUT IT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE. THIS WILL PUSH UP WINDS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...RANGING 15 TO 25 MPH. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL LET UP AND DEW POINTS WILL BE DROPPING OFF. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DIP TO NEAR 29 IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER...AND RANGE AROUND THE LOW 30S FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. THOUGHTS ARE THAT SUB 32 DEGREE TEMPS SHOULD ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. SO...AT THIS POINT A FREEZE WARNING WILL NOT BE NEEDED. OF COURSE THE DAY-SHIFT WILL WANT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS TODAY. FOR FRIDAY AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN TO THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI. FRIDAY WILL SEE TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE SEASONALLY NORMAL VALUES...AND THEY WILL NOT LOOK BACK FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND TROUGHING TO OUR EAST WILL PUT US BACK IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP TRULY COLD AIR WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. THE ONLY OTHER POINT OF INTEREST IS THE CUTOFF LOW AND WHAT IT WILL DO TO OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG JET IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DRIVE RIGHT OVER THE LOW...HELPING TO KEEP IT WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT BUILDS SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER THE LOW. MIDRANGE MODELS THEN SHOW THE LOW BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE EAST AS THE NORTHERN STREAM JET BUCKLES. BOTH THE DGEX AND GFS ARE VERY FAST AT MOVING THE LOW INTO THE MIDWEST...BRINGING A RETURN OF PRECIP NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW. MY PREFERENCE IS FOR THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS AS LARGE CUTOFF LOWS OVER THE WEST COAST ARE NOTORIOUS FOR BEING SLOWER IN EJECTING THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. I THINK WE WILL GET SOMETHING NEXT WEEK...I JUST THINK IT WILL BE THURSDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY BEFORE WE SEE IT. HOWEVER...I HAVE PENCILED IN SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS TO HELP BLEND WITH OTHER OFFICES. CUTTER && .PREV DISCUSSION... 955 PM WED... AFTERNOON FORECASTS HAVE PANNED OUT WELL. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO GRIDS AND FORECASTS NOW THAT UPPER LOW IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT TO SEE A DEFORMATION BAND AFFECTING AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS LOW TRACK...BUT WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALSO WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP JUST A DEGREE OR TWO AS EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN AND NOT MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTING IN AT THE SURFACE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. PC 305 PM WED... AN ELONGATED DEFORMATION ZONE HAS DEVELOPED FROM WICHITA TO KANSAS CITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS TRACKED NORTHEAST. RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS UPPER LOW HAS UNDERGONE SOME DEEPENING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER HAS MOVED ACROSS THE RED RIVER TOWARD OKLAHOMA CITY. THE ETA AND GFS TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE ARE VERY SIMILAR. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING SHOULD BE FROM TOPEKA TO ATCHISON TO TRENTON. RAIN AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH ARE BEING CRANKED OUT BY THE MODELS. ACTUAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER CONSIDERING KIXD AND KDMO PICKED UP ABOUT TWO TENTHS IN THE LAST HOUR. FORTUNATELY THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION BAND SHOULD SET UP NORTH AND WEST OF THE RIVERS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED FLOODING IN RECENT DAYS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO WATCH BIG CREEK, THE SOUTH GRAND, AND THE PETITE SALINE, BUT RAIN INTENSITIES DON'T LOOK SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE PROBLEMS TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE QUITE HIGH OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K SURFACE AROUND 00Z. PRESSURE ADVECTION DIMINISHES QUICKLY BY MID EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND I EXPECT A NARROW RIBBON OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE DEFORMATION ZONE IN NORTHERN MISSOURI. SO I HAVE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY AND TAPERING THEM DOWN CONSIDERABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY TOMORROW MORNING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO DOWNGLIDE, AND CLOUDS WILL ERODE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. DOWNGLIDE WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY WINDS BY MID MORNING AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN, AND 900MB WINDS AROUND 30KTS TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30MPH SHOULD BE COMMON WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED IN SEVERAL WEEKS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE AREA SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAST. KOCH UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...TRANSLATING TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAX FORECAST AREA. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SOLUTIONS VARY REGARDING THE EJECTION OF THIS LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. AT THIS POINT FAVOR THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE DAY 7 POPS AT THIS POINT. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...ANTICIPATE THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO SUPPRESS MID/UPPER RIDGING DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SCHMIT && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 935 AM CST THU NOV 4 2004 .DISCUSSION... UPDATED ZONES BUT CHANGES WERE MINISCULE AT BEST. MAINLY CLEARED OUT A FEW CLOUDS...RETAINED TEMPS AND WIND TRENDS SET FORTH IN PVS ZONES. MIXED DOWN META 21Z H875 TEMPS FOR MAX T GRID WHICH RESEMBLED INHERITED GRID ALMOST PERFECTLY. MORNING KMPX SNDING SUGGESTS LWR 50S BUT CAA RATHER STOUT TODAY SO DIDN'T GO QUITE THAT WARM. RATHER POTENT S/W NOW EXITING NERN MN AND SFC COLD FRNT HAS CLEARED CWA. A FEW STCU IN ITS WAKE BUT MAINLY IN WRN WI...AND WITH DRIER AIR FLOWING IN...WENT WITH A 20-30% SKY COVER WHICH YIELDED MO SUNNY WORDING IN WRN WI...BUT THEY WL DEF SEE THE MOST OF THE STRATOCU. WINDY/BREEZY WORDING LOOKS GOOD PER BUFR MOMENTUM CHANNEL AND 30-40KT LLVL WIND MAXIMA OVER CNTL/ERN CWA PER RUC. SHOULD BE GOOD MIXING THIS AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD BE UNIFORM 45-50 ACRS CWA WITH WARMEST ALONG AND WEST OF MN RVR. && MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ BINAU mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 828 AM CST THU NOV 4 2004 .DISCUSSION... HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. PRECIP HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE CLOUDS ARE NEARLY OUT OF THE AREA AS WELL. STILL LOOKING FOR NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION. NRR && .PREV DISCUSSION... 240 AM THU... EARLY THIS MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAYS RAIN...IS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALSO EVIDENT ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ALONG THE USA/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WAVE WILL PICK UP OUR CLOSED LOW THIS MORNING...AND QUICKLY ADVECT IT EAST AROUND DAYBREAK. FARTHER WEST A LARGE/DEEP CUTOFF LOW CAN BE SEEN SLIDING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST LINE. TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW...OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...A STRONG JET CAN BE SEEN IN THE UPPER AIR OBS AND SATELLITE DATA. FOR TODAY...THE DEPARTING LOW WILL TAKE ITS RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WITH IT. JUST KEPT SOME MENTION OF DRIZZLE ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE CWA...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. THIS IS SIMPLY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND MESOETA QPF FIELDS...WHICH ARE NOT DOING TOO BAD. AS THE RAIN GOES SO WILL THE CLOUD COVER...ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER. SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH WILL NOT ONLY TAKE THE LOW AWAY...BUT IT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE. THIS WILL PUSH UP WINDS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...RANGING 15 TO 25 MPH. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL LET UP AND DEW POINTS WILL BE DROPPING OFF. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DIP TO NEAR 29 IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER...AND RANGE AROUND THE LOW 30S FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. THOUGHTS ARE THAT SUB 32 DEGREE TEMPS SHOULD ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. SO...AT THIS POINT A FREEZE WARNING WILL NOT BE NEEDED. OF COURSE THE DAY-SHIFT WILL WANT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS TODAY. FOR FRIDAY AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN TO THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI. FRIDAY WILL SEE TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE SEASONALLY NORMAL VALUES...AND THEY WILL NOT LOOK BACK FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND TROUGHING TO OUR EAST WILL PUT US BACK IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP TRULY COLD AIR WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. THE ONLY OTHER POINT OF INTEREST IS THE CUTOFF LOW AND WHAT IT WILL DO TO OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG JET IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DRIVE RIGHT OVER THE LOW...HELPING TO KEEP IT WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT BUILDS SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER THE LOW. MIDRANGE MODELS THEN SHOW THE LOW BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE EAST AS THE NORTHERN STREAM JET BUCKLES. BOTH THE DGEX AND GFS ARE VERY FAST AT MOVING THE LOW INTO THE MIDWEST...BRINGING A RETURN OF PRECIP NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW. MY PREFERENCE IS FOR THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS AS LARGE CUTOFF LOWS OVER THE WEST COAST ARE NOTORIOUS FOR BEING SLOWER IN EJECTING THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. I THINK WE WILL GET SOMETHING NEXT WEEK...I JUST THINK IT WILL BE THURSDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY BEFORE WE SEE IT. HOWEVER...I HAVE PENCILED IN SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS TO HELP BLEND WITH OTHER OFFICES. CUTTER 955 PM WED... AFTERNOON FORECASTS HAVE PANNED OUT WELL. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO GRIDS AND FORECASTS NOW THAT UPPER LOW IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT TO SEE A DEFORMATION BAND AFFECTING AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS LOW TRACK...BUT WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALSO WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP JUST A DEGREE OR TWO AS EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN AND NOT MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTING IN AT THE SURFACE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. PC 305 PM WED... AN ELONGATED DEFORMATION ZONE HAS DEVELOPED FROM WICHITA TO KANSAS CITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS TRACKED NORTHEAST. RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS UPPER LOW HAS UNDERGONE SOME DEEPENING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER HAS MOVED ACROSS THE RED RIVER TOWARD OKLAHOMA CITY. THE ETA AND GFS TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE ARE VERY SIMILAR. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING SHOULD BE FROM TOPEKA TO ATCHISON TO TRENTON. RAIN AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH ARE BEING CRANKED OUT BY THE MODELS. ACTUAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER CONSIDERING KIXD AND KDMO PICKED UP ABOUT TWO TENTHS IN THE LAST HOUR. FORTUNATELY THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION BAND SHOULD SET UP NORTH AND WEST OF THE RIVERS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED FLOODING IN RECENT DAYS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO WATCH BIG CREEK, THE SOUTH GRAND, AND THE PETITE SALINE, BUT RAIN INTENSITIES DON'T LOOK SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE PROBLEMS TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE QUITE HIGH OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K SURFACE AROUND 00Z. PRESSURE ADVECTION DIMINISHES QUICKLY BY MID EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND I EXPECT A NARROW RIBBON OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE DEFORMATION ZONE IN NORTHERN MISSOURI. SO I HAVE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY AND TAPERING THEM DOWN CONSIDERABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY TOMORROW MORNING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO DOWNGLIDE, AND CLOUDS WILL ERODE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. DOWNGLIDE WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY WINDS BY MID MORNING AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN, AND 900MB WINDS AROUND 30KTS TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30MPH SHOULD BE COMMON WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED IN SEVERAL WEEKS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE AREA SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAST. KOCH UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...TRANSLATING TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAX FORECAST AREA. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SOLUTIONS VARY REGARDING THE EJECTION OF THIS LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. AT THIS POINT FAVOR THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE DAY 7 POPS AT THIS POINT. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...ANTICIPATE THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO SUPPRESS MID/UPPER RIDGING DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SCHMIT && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1025 AM EST THU NOV 4 2004 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... LITTLE CHANGE PLANNED. 12Z GSO SOUNDING SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION UP TO 850 MB & THE DECENT WAA ATOP IT SHOULD HELP STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION BEFORE FROPA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WEDGE FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE WITH DEWPOINTS NOW 65 TO 70 SUT-MHX-HAT. THE LATEST RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION & BREAKS THROUGH THE WEDGE AT FAY IN THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS... BUT NOT AT ALL AT GSO WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. DESPITE THE LACK OF ANY FURTHER ADVECTION OF DRY AIR AS THE NOW-WEAK PARENT HIGH MOVES OUT... THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE INSOLATION AT THE SURFACE GIVEN THE THICK CLOUD COVER AND THUS EXPECT LITTLE SURFACE WARMING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S IN THE TRIAD TO LOWER 70S IN SAMPSON CO LOOK GOOD WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES IF ANY. RISK OF SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL WITH AREAS FROM I-95 EASTWARD SEEING THE BEST SHOT. WIND FIELDS LOOK PRETTY GOOD WITH A 40-KT 850 MB JET & HELICITIES 200-600 M2/S2 WITH A VEERING PROFILE... BUT SUFFICIENT CAPE MAY BE HARD TO ACHIEVE. LIFTING 900 MB ON THE MHX SOUNDING YIELDS ONLY ABOUT 800 J/KG & THE MID LEVELS ARE STILL RATHER STABLE. WILL UPDATE SPS FOR POSSIBLE SMALL BOWS & SPIN-UPS. && PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 240 AM EST THU NOV 4 2004 SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN TODAY APPEARS TO BE HANDLED QUITE WELL BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS AT THIS TIME. SURFACE FRONT IN VICINITY OF SC BORDER WITH E-NE FLOW BEHIND BOUNDARY USHERING COOLER/DRIER AIR. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT LOWERING INTO THE 40S. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THIS COOLER AIRMASS RESULTING IN OVERRUNNING PRECIP OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. AS SLY LOW LEVEL JET INCHES EAST...EXPECT SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC BY 12Z. WILL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY TODAY. APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE A LULL IN SHOWER COVERAGE LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE STRONG S/W AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE A TAD SLOWER THAN EARLIER THINKING, THUS BACKED OFF PRECIP ENDING TREND A FEW HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 KNOTS OVER COASTAL PLAIN/SANDHILLS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING DYNAMICS ALOFT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AS CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT MUCH SUN FROM HEATING SURFACE. SURFACE THERMAL MOISTURE BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY SO STORMS THAT INTERSECT BOUNDARY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. WILL ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE OVER EASTERN COUNTIES. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BISECT REGION SW-NE WITH WARM SECTOR CONFINED TO SECTIONS OF SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. NW PIEDMONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN COOL AIRMASS FOR MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE MIXING FROM APPROACHING COLD FRONT MIXES OUT STABLE AIRMASS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUGGEST MAX TEMPS NO HIGHER THAN 55-60 WITH ALL DAY RAIN OR LOW CLOUDS. WITH A LULL EXPECTED IN RAIN LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL TREND MAX TEMPS TOWARD WARMER END OF RANGE IN THE NW PIEDMONT. IN CONTRAST...TEMPS IN THE SE MAY BE ABLE TO REACH EXCEED 70 DEGREES. FOR TONIGHT INTO FRI...COOLER DRIER AIR EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS DERIVED BY USING THE ADIABATIC SCENARIO FOR THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS/MAX TEMP SCHEME. THIS PROJECTS MAX TEMPS FRI/SAT A BIT WARMER THAN REGULAR SCHEME BUT STILL TAD COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FRI. MAY SEE PATCHY FROST OVER NORTH HALF BY SAT AM. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR TREND BEFORE INCLUDING IN FORECAST (PLUS WE ARE LONG OVERDUE FOR FIRST FROST). OTHERWISE, WEEKEND EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND SEASONABLE. -WSS LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... LATER EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY CLEAR/DRY AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES EFFECTIVELY CUTS OFF MOISTURE ADVECTION. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHOVE A REINFORCING DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SET UP A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING RAIN/DAMMING SCENARIO IN THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME. -MLM && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 325 PM EST THU NOV 4 2004 .DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION...DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND INTO THE PANHANDLE. AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE TAIL END OF THIS FEATURE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS NO HIGHER THAN 20-25 PERCENT. CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE AND WILL LEAVE MENTION OF LIGHTNING OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO A POSITION NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. FRI-FRI NIGHT... APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOW ITS SERLY ADVANCE AS IT BEGINS TO PUSH UP AGAINST THE DLM RIDGE OVER THE SW ATLC. LATEST SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONTAL MOISTURE HAS STRUNG ITSELF OUT WITH MAX H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES ONLY 75% AT BEST...WHILE H85-H50 MEAN RH VALUES ARE AOB 60%. UPSTREAM RADAR PICS CONFIRM THE LOW MOISTURE CONTENT WITH A PRIMARY LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THE BIG BEND AREA LESS THAN 75MI ACROSS. THE H85-H50 SHORT WAVE TROF THAT IS DRIVING THE FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE ENOUGH NWRLY PUNCH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST TO BE ABLE TO PUSH IT CLEAR OF THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE SOME DISPARITY TOWARD THIS SOLUTION... HOWEVER. LATEST GFS SOLUTION PUSHES THE FRONT S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE ~18Z FRI...INTO THE FL STRAITS BY 12Z SAT...THEN GRADUALLY STALLS IT OVER CUBA AND THE NRN BAHAMAS THROUGH 12Z SUN. ETA ON THE OTHER HAND HAS THE FRONT MAKING STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH 00Z SAT THEN ABRUPTLY STALLS JUST S OF THE CWA ~00Z SAT. RESULTING MOS POPS ARE LIKEWISE DISSIMILAR WITH ETA MOS A GOOD 10-20% HIGHER THAN THE GFS MOS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN CWA. ETA SOLUTION LOOKS DUBIOUS GIVEN THE THINNING MOISUTRE...THE AVAILABLE UPSTREAM MID LVL ENERGY...AND DEEP WRLY FLOW. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE MAV/GFS SOLUTION. WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20% DURING THE DAY PD FRI...AND EVEN THEN TO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. SAT-THU... EXTENDED DRY PD IN STORE AS A MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPILLING DOWN OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO THE PLAINS STATES PUSHES COOL...DRY AIR INTO THE SERN U.S. TEMPS AOB CLIMO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NNWRLY FLOW PREVAILS. TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO FOR NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD AND CRANKS THE LOW/MID LVL WINDS MORE TO THE NE. && .MARINE... PGRAD ACROSS THE LCL AREA WILL TIGHTEN AS THE APPROACHING FRONT PRESSES UP AGAINST THE RIDGE OVER THE SW ATLC. WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO NEAR SCA LVLS FRI/EARLY SAT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE PENINSULA. HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUN WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP SEAS IN THE 3-5FT RANGE INTO MON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN LEG. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 65 73 55 75 / 20 10 0 0 MCO 65 76 55 78 / 20 10 0 0 MLB 67 77 60 77 / 20 20 0 0 VRB 66 79 61 78 / 20 20 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WARNING MIDDLE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. && $$ SHORT TERM...HIRSCH LONG TERM....BRAGAW fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1145 AM EST THU NOV 4 2004 .DISCUSSION... WIND AND LK EFFECT PCPN ARE MAIN CONCERNS FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE PRESSING INTO UPR LAKES ATTM IS HELPING TO SUPPORT BAND OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/DEEP MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN. PCPN IS STEADILY SHIFTING E...ALREADY INTO CNTRL ZONES ATTM. EXPECT THIS LGT RAIN TO REACH E ZONES BY EARLY AFTN AND MOVE OUT OF CWA BY LATE AFTN. DEVELOPMENT OF LK EFFECT PCPN IN WAKE OF LGT RAIN IS MAIN QUESTION. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS FROM YQD AND INL VERY QUITE DRY AND NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ANY LK PCPN. H85 TEMPS IN THIS AREA WERE GENERALLY BTWN -3C AND -7C...WHICH WITH WATER TEMPS OVR W/C SUPERIOR AROUND 7C WOULD YIELD MARGINAL PURE LK EFFECT REGIME AT BEST. SOUNDING FROM CWPL ABUNDANTLY MOIST AND WHEN COMBINING WITH SIMILAR TEMPS OR SLIGHTLY COOLER (TO AROUND -8C PER GFS) YIELDS A BIT MORE LK EFFECT POTENTIAL. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE UPSTREAM OVR MN THIS MORNING OTHER THAN DIURNAL SC WITH MIXED LAYER DWPT DEPRESSIONS GROWING AS WELL. CONCERN IS BUILDING THAT W HALF OF CWA LK EFFECT PCPN MAY END UP NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES...AND THAT MIGHT BE GENEROUS. IF MIXED LAYER WINDS WOULD VEER A BIT MORE N THAT WOULD HELP DRAW IN MORE LL MOISTURE AS CWPL SOUNDING SHOWS. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE LAKE TROUGHING OCCURS IN E PORTIONS OF SUPERIOR. SO...IN GRIDS HAVE DOWNPLAYED LK EFFECT SIGNIFICANTLY OVR W HALF (CLOSE TO SUPERIOR WENT WITH CHANCE OF SHSN OR FLURRIES FOR ENTIRE EVENT). FARTHER E...KEPT EVENTUAL LIKELY POPS LATER TONIGHT...BUT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LAGGING BEHIND THE INITIAL SURGE OF -RA...HAVE BUFFERED EVENING HOURS WITH ONLY SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AS LAKE INSTABILITY AT THAT TIME IS NOT SUFFICIENT FOR PURE LES. TEMPS THIS AFTN SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CURRENT READINGS...AND POSSIBLY POP UP A FEW DEGREES AFTER MID LEVEL CLOUDS BREAK AND SOME SUN COULD RE APPEAR. HOWEVER...SUNSHINE MAY JUST SERVE TO BOOST LL INSTABILITY AND FILL SC CLOUDS RIGHT BACK IN. WINDS STILL ON TRACK FOR ADVY LEVELS BY LATER AFTN AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVR MN PLOWS ACROSS N TIER. 12Z ETA 12KM/WS ETA OUTPUT POINTS TO HIGHEST WINDS OVR HIGHER TERRAIN/W SHORE OF KEWEENAW AND OVR E ZONES RIGHT ALONG LK SUPERIOR. RUC SHOWS BRIEF TIME BTWN 21Z-00Z ON KEWEENAW AND 00Z-03Z OVR E ZONES WHERE MIXED LAYER WIND GUSTS NEAR 40KT ARE POSSIBLE. NO CHANGES TO THE WIND HEADLINES. UPDATED/PUBLISHED GRIDS OUT. TEXT ZFPMQT UPDATE ON THE WAY. .PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THIS MORNING)... LES/WIND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST AND EARLY FRI IN THE EAST AS WINDS BACK WITH BUILDING SFC RIDGE. MODEST WAA ACTUALLY KICKS H8 TEMPS TO ABOVE ZERO FRI AFTN...SO TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY (LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S). WILL KEEP LIGHT SHRA/SN MENTIONED FRI AFTN IN THE EAST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE AREA. ETA/GFS SHOW A PERIOD OF MODEST 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DESPITE THE DRYING AIR...THIS MAY SEED THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN. WILL RETAIN DRY FCST FRI NIGHT/SAT...AND WILL BUMP UP EXPECTED HIGHS ON SAT A BIT MORE (TO LOWER/MID 50S) AS H8 TEMPS RISE TO 5-7C. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO BRING COLDEST AIR OF SEASON DOWN IN MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW SUN/MON. WILL MAKE NO CHANGES AS FCST HAS THIS WELL IN HAND WITH A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SHSN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GALE WARNING EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WIND ADVY MIZ001-003 LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. WIND ADVY MIZ006-007 TNGT. && $$ DISCUSSION...JLA PREV DISCUSSION...JKL mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 320 PM CST THU NOV 4 2004 .DISCUSSION... A REINFORCING SURGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NORTH WIND SPEEDS NOW BEGINNING TO INCREASE AT MANY SITES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SHORT TERM RUC/ETA GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON WIND SPEEDS DECREASING MARKEDLY AFTER DUSK. THIS...COMBINED WITH DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND CLEAR SKIES...SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH THE FREEZING POINT... MAINLY CLOSER TO CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WEST/NORTHWEST ZONES. HOWEVER...WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE BRIEF/ISOLATED NATURE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...AND ALSO DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REMAINING A BIT STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. NONETHELESS...FROST WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IN MANY RURAL/LOWER-ELEVATION AREAS SURROUNDING THE DFW METROPLEX BY FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY WHERE WINDS CAN BECOME CALM. GUIDANCE FROM THE ETA/GFS/NGM CONTINUES IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED TO PERSIST BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST AND CUT-OFF UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...WITH A LARGE DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMPERATURE AND A SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY... WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A GREATER COVERAGE OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WE WILL TEMPER THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT ON HANDLING OF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER...WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION PROGGED BY THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN PREFERRED OVER THE FASTER SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE GFS. GIVEN A SLOWER EWD MOTION...WE HAVE CHOSEN TO REMOVE POPS FROM THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY...AND CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FURTHER BY THURSDAY...AS THE GFS NOW WANTS TO PHASE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS...CREATING A RATHER IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY DAY SEVEN. WE WILL TREND SLIGHTLY TOWARD THIS SOLUTION...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 39 67 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 WACO, TX 39 71 42 80 / 0 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 35 63 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 37 67 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 37 66 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 40 67 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 38 65 43 77 / 0 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 42 68 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 41 72 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. && $$ 65/DD tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 155 PM EST THU NOV 4 2004 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO SE MICHIGAN AND MSAS AT 18Z SHOWED THE SFC CDFNT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. WILL BE ADJUSTING TIMING OFF POPS...ENDING THE SHRA QUICKER IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN THE SAME SPEED AND DIRECTION THE BACK EDGE OF THE BIG AREA OF PCPN SHUD BE EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA AROUND 20Z. THIS TIMING IS SUPPROTED BY THE LATEST RUC AND LAMP GUID. THE DRY SLOT SHUD THEN START TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS IN THE EAST. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WELL DEFINED SHRTWV IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUDS AND LIMITED PCPN IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS SHUD BE INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES BY 00Z. MODELS CLEAR OUT LOW LVL MOISTURE IN THE WEST A LITTLE FASTER ON FRI SO WL BE CUTTING BACK POPS TO ONLY SLGT CHC IN THE WEST AFT 15Z. DEFINITELY NEED TO CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY FOR GRAYSON...ASHE AND WATAUGA COUNTIES. CROSS SECTIONS THROUGH THIS AREA ON BOTH THE ETA AND THE GFS SHOWED 40 KT WINDS CLOSE TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS... VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES...AND A FAVORABLE PRESSURE PATTERN... ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06Z TNGT AND 18Z FRI. BEST CAA WL BE BEFORE 06Z SO WINDS WL START TO PICK UP DURING THE EVENING. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SHOULD BE ON MONDAY. THIS ONE WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING LESS AND LESS PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THUS HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIP WITH IT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US BEHIND THIS FRONT. MODELS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT WEDGE PATTERN SHAPING UP BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THAT PERIOD. WITH WEDGE IN PLACE...AND WITH OVERRUNNING WINDS OVERTOP OF SAID WEDGE...EXPECT TO SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. ALSO...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...MAY HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT DRIZZLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OF COURSE THATS A LONG WAY OFF RIGHT NOW...AND WILL NOT BE MENTIONING IN THE GRIDS YET. NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST IS TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW FROST IS MENTIONED IN THE GRIDS ACROSS THE EAST...AND IN THE VALLEYS ACROSS THE WEST. EXPECTED THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN WEST VIRGINIA MAY GET BELOW FREEZING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BY SATURDAY MORNING. LIMITING FACTOR ON FROST MAY BE IF WINDS DONT DROP OFF ENOUGH. ANYWAY..HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY KIND OF FREEZE WATCH SINCE TIME BELOW FREEZING IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF. && .AVIATION... WIDESPREAD RAIN IS RAPIDLY MOVING NORTHEAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA 20Z. HOWEVER...SCT SHRA WL CONT IN THE MOUTIANS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. CONDITONS WILL START LIFR/IFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN BUT WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TO MVFR ONCE THE FNT PASSES. LOW CLOUDS AREA EXPECTED TO HOLD IN OVERNIGHT AT BLF AND LWB...WITH MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. 30-40KT GUSTS ARE LIKELY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR VAZ015. NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR NCZ001... NCZ018. WV...NONE. && $$ AMS/CL va