000
FXUS04 KWBC 031843
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
142 PM EST TUE FEB 03 2009


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 04/0000 UTC THRU FEB 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGRMNT WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN
RIDGE/ERN TROF PATTERN DAY 1.  SEVERAL SHRTWVS FCST TO ROTATE THRU
THE ERN TROF...WITH SOME DIFFS EVIDENT ACRS PORTIONS OF THE MID
ATL WITH THE QPF DETAILS.

NEW ENGLAND...

THE LEAD VORT AND ASSOC DEEPENING SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONT TO
PUSH QUICKLY NEWD FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT.  PCPN IN THE ASSOC COMMA HEAD WL LINGER OVER
ERN NEW ENGLAND INTO EARLY WED...WITH THE GREATEST PCPN POTENTIAL
COMING EARLY DAY 1.  OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PCPN ALONG THE ERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THE SREF MEAN HAD A BROADER
DEPICTION OF .10"+ PCPN FARTHER INLAND.  AT THE MOMENT...DAY 1 QPF
FOLLOWED THE COASTAL AXIS MAX IDEA WITH AREAL AVG .10"+.

NRN MID ATL...

THERE IS MORE DIFFS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE WITH
PCPN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM VORT MOVG OUT OF THE UPR OH
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NRN MID ATL TONIGHT. THE NAM
AND SEVERAL OF THE NAM SREF MEMBERS ARE DEPICTING .10-.25 QPF AMTS
OVR THE NRN MID ATL INVOF CNTRL TO ERN PA AND INTO NJ.  THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE LIGHTER ACRS THESE AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE RSM
SREF MEMBERS HAVE SIMILAR AMTS...ALBEIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACRS
THE SRN TIER OF NY AND INTO NRN PA.  GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE OF
SOLNS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW.  HOWEVER...OUR CONFIDENCE OVERALL IS
HIGHER WITH THE ECMWFS DETAILS GIVEN ITS PAST PERFORMANCE.
SUBSEQUENTLY...WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THE HEAVIER QPF TOTALS AND
TOWARD THE LIGHTER AMTS AHEAD OF THIS NEXT VORT AS PER THE 0000
UTC EC AND OPERATIONAL GFS.

SRN MID ATL...

SOMEWHAT BETTER AGRMNT WITH QPF DETAILS AHEAD OF THE NEXT VORT TO
ROTATE ARND THE MEAN ERN TROF FROM INVOF WRN KY AND INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE SRN MID ATL BY EARLY WED.
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LIFT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS VORT AND ASSOC SFC
LOW MOVG ACRS NCNTRL TO NERN NC AND INTO SCNTRL TO SERN VA.  THE
0000 UTC ECMWF AND GFS WERE VERY SIMILAR WITH .10-.25" AREAL AVG
AMTS.  THE NAM HAS SIMILAR AMTS...BUT SUPPRESSED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH OVR NCNTRL NC.  SREF GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE USUAL SPREAD OF
SOLNS..WITH SUPPORT FOR BOTH THE EC/GFS AND NAM SOLNS.  AT THE
MOMENT...GIVEN THE GOOD AGRMNT OF THE 0000 UTC EC AND GFS AND OUR
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EC MODEL...WE TRENDED TOWARD THE EC/GFS
SOLN.


GTLKS...

NNWLY TO NWLY FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST OFF OF THE GTLKS DAY 1.
THIS WL SUPPORT MULTI-BANDED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OFF
OF LAKE MI WHERE SINGLE BANDED SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 472666 468658 465654 457649 449647 445647 441649 432658
      425665 417674 409686 404692 400696 394705 389714 386724
      385724 382722 379719 376716 371719 364726 358730 351734
      341741 339746 336750 331767 330771 331779 335786 338789
      346793 346805 351808 356808 358811 357815 356820 352828
      350836 350843 351847 354850 359855 369859 378862 384858
      389859 394864 397866 404869 411874 420876 425877 430875
      441875 447874 453875 460881 463889 465893 469895 473895
      476892 478885 479880 479875 478869 477862 473854 471850
      465849 454850 433851 424853 416852 409851 406852 402855
      399857 397856 393843 391836 391830 392823 394818 399814
      403816 408823 412826 416828 419831 425832 433833 442836
      446836 451833 453830 453826 450820 446814 444811 439800
      433791 433787 435781 435775 434768 433764 431762 426763
      420768 415766 412758 411752 416746 419743 434733 440723
      443714 447707 450706 452708 457703 458702 460697 467681
      468675 471673 472666
 0.01 402778 402774 401770 400767 399763 397760 396757 394754
      393753 391756 391760 390764 390768 391772 393775 394776
      396777 398779 400779 401779 402778
 0.25 368745 364744 362745 360750 361753 362755 365755 367752
      368749 368746 368745

$$