Publications

Agricultural Outlook

March 1998

Economics Editor: Dennis A. Shields, dshields@ERS.USDA.gov

This issue was published in March 1998 by the Market and Trade Economics Division.

Agricultural Outlook is published 10 times per year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. To order Agricultural Outlook, please visit the ERS-NASS Sales Desk. The contents section at the bottom of this page links to each article in Adobe Acrobat PDF format.

In This Issue...

GOOD WEATHER NETS ABUNDANT CITRUS CROPS IN 1997/98 -- Large U.S. citrus crops will likely keep grower and retail prices for most citrus (fresh and processed) at or below 1996/97 levels well into the summer. U.S. orange production is forecast record-high at 14.3 million tons, up 12 percent from last year, due to favorable weather in Florida and California and expanded acreage in Florida. U.S. grapefruit producers also find themselves with another large crop this year, although nearly 6 percent smaller than a year ago. Supplies remain abundant, and as a result, prices have dropped and grower revenues have shrunk. For more information on this topic, contact: Charles Plummer, (202) 694-5256.

RAIL PROBLEMS DISRUPT MARKET FLOWS -- Rail congestion in the western U.S. during the second half of 1997 on the Union Pacific/Southern Pacific (UP/SP) and Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) lines snarled traffic and brought freight shipments in some areas to a complete halt. In the fourth quarter of 1997, grain carloadings dropped 6 percent on BNSF and 28 percent on UP/SP from a year earlier. The severity of the western rail service problems resulted in emergency action by the Surface Transportation Board, and illustrated the importance of an adequate grain handling and transportation infrastructure in an era when grain production and marketing decisions are driven by market signals, not government programs. For more information on this topic, contact: Jerry D. Norton (202) 720-4211.

WORLD HOG PRODUCTION FACES ENVIRONMENTAL CONSTRAINTS -- Exports of the leading pork exporting countries grew at an annual rate of 4 percent during 1989-97. The extent to which these countries--the U.S., Canada, Denmark, and Taiwan--can meet forecast growth will be determined largely by the ability of their pork industries to expand. An adequate land base for spreading manure residues is essential. With virtually insurmountable land constraints in small, densely populated Taiwan and Denmark, and with public demands for stricter governmental regulation constraining hog production in the U.S. and Canada, world pork prices could increase more sharply than expected. For more information on this topic, contact: Mildred Haley, (202) 694-5176.

ASIA EVENTS TRIM U.S. MEAT EXPORT PROSPECTS -- Economic turmoil in Asia is expected to trim U.S. meat export prospects in 1998. As Asian currencies depreciate and incomes fall, demand will contract in some key Asian markets and competition will increase from other countries whose currencies are also losing value against the U.S. dollar. At the same time, the relatively strong dollar is making the U.S. market more attractive to foreign meat exporters seeking alternatives to Asian markets. Due largely to declining sales to Japan and South Korea, U.S. beef and pork exports are likely to fall in 1998, and poultry exports will see slower growth. For more information on this topic, contact: Leland Southard, (202) 694-5187.

REFORMS IN ARGENTINA SPUR AGRICULTURAL GROWTH -- A combination of dramatic economic reforms and strong price incentives in Argentina during this decade have set the country on course to reach its full agricultural production and trade potential. Argentine farmers were able in 1996/97 to respond to strong world crop prices with a substantial increase in harvested acreage and in use of inputs. USDA�s 1998 baseline projects modest growth in Argentina�s grain and oilseed output during 1997/98-2007/08. Extremely favorable weather is expected to put total grain production in 1997/98 at 36 million tons and total oilseed output at 23 million tons--both records. For more information on this topic, contact: John Wainio, (202) 694-5286.

This publication is in Adobe Acrobat Reader 4.0 PDF format. You can download and get help using the Adobe Acrobat Reader to view and print this document. PDF format is used to preserve the layout as it appears in the printed publication. Text-only versions of Agricultural Outlook are also available from Mann Library. The text versions are available immediately after publication clearance.

Contents

In This Issue..., 49kb

Agricultural Economy