BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE FORECAST FOR THE OLYMPICS WASHINGTON CASCADES AND MT HOOD AREA NORTHWEST WEATHER AND AVALANCHE CENTER SEATTLE WASHINGTON 900 AM PST FRI FEB 6 2009 NWAC Program administered by: USDA-Forest Service with cooperative funding and support from: Washington State Department of Transportation National Weather Service National Park Service Washington State Parks and Recreation Commission Pacific Northwest Ski Area Association Friends of the Avalanche Center and other private organizations. This forecast applies to back country avalanche terrain below 7000 feet and does not apply to highways or operating ski areas. WAZ513-518-519-019-042-501-502-ORZ011-071700- && ZONE AVALANCHE FORECASTS * OLYMPICS- * WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST- * STEVENS SNOQUALMIE WHITE PASSES- * EAST SLOPES WASHINGTON CASCADES- * MT HOOD AREA- Friday through Saturday: Generally low avalanche danger below 7000 feet. Outlook to Sunday: Generally low avalanche danger below 7000 feet. SNOWPACK ANALYSIS The last significant snowfall was back on about 28 January when about 6-12 inches of snow was seen near and west of the crest. Some light amounts of snow were seen at the end of January and the first couple days of February with some mild temperatures. The past 3 days were dry with mild daytime temperatures. This has caused the snow pack in most areas to mostly stabilize. Some good spring like conditions have been reported the past couple days on some south facing slopes such as on the Turns All Year web site. Conditions on north slopes seem quite varied with some lingering shallow loose colder surface snow, or surface crusts, or hard rough skiing, or hard rough surfaces or avalanche debris. A general expected upper snow pack structure on south slopes seems to be fairly homogenous firm or hard melt freeze or equi-temperature snow. A general expected upper snow pack structure on north slopes might be more varied where one might find shallow crusts and colder snow from the past few days, over consolidated snow from late January, over harder snow from the inversion pattern of mid January. There are occasional reports of some facets lingering in the mid pack on north slopes. But these layers generally seem to be protected by overlying thick firm snow or are dormant at this time. The last avalanches seem to be 2nd hand reports of isolated triggered avalanches reported on the FOAC Info Exchange from 2 and 3 February near Washington and Stevens Passes. Mostly trace amounts of new snow are reported on Friday morning. DETAILED FORECASTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT Generally west winds and light rain or snow showers are expected on Friday with a slight cooling trend. Clearing should be seen Friday night. This should not significantly change the generally stable snow conditions. Snow conditions may improve a bit with the light amounts of new snow. Or the new snow may just help hide hard surface features. Back country travelers should use normal caution on Friday. The cooling trend should favor stability but use caution if more than a few inches of new snow is encountered on lee slopes. Clearing should be seen by Friday night. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT Sunny weather should be seen Saturday. This should cause little change in generally stable snow conditions and a low avalanche danger. Continue to use normal caution on Saturday. Shallow surface softening or melting is likely mainly on south slopes. Use extra caution on any steep slope if soft warmed surface snow becomes deeper than a few inches. Partly or mostly clear weather should be seen Saturday night. OUTLOOK TO SUNDAY Fair dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures should be seen Sunday. Again this should cause little change in overall stable snow and a low avalanche danger. && Backcountry travelers should be aware that elevation and geographic distinctions are approximate and that a transition zone between dangers exists. Remember there are avalanche safe areas in the mountains during all levels of avalanche danger. Contact local authorities in your area of interest for further information. NWAC weather data and forecasts are also available by calling 206-526-6677 for Washington, 503-808-2400 for the Mt Hood area, or by visiting our Web site at www.nwac.us. Also note that field snowpack information is often available on the FOAC website at www.avalanchenw.org, and weather and avalanche glossaries for commonly used terms in the forecasts can be found on the NWAC education page. Ferber/Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center $$