National Situation Update: Saturday, January 14, 2006
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
Significant National Weather
Northeast: Heavy rain will precede a storm system into the Northeast on Saturday. Residents from New Jersey to southern New England may wake up to heavy rain and thunderstorms on Saturday morning. Rain will then move northeastward into northern New England. The combination of rain and melting snow will combine to increase the flood threat from northeast Pennsylvania to Maine. Behind the storm, rain will change to snow across western New York, western Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. The mountains of West Virginia and the Laurel Mountains of southwest Pennsylvania could receive up 3 to 8 inches of snow by Saturday night.
Areas from the Middle Atlantic region to southern New England, that will receive early morning rain, will see snow by evening and overnight, along with fierce northwesterly winds. Snowfall amounts will generally range from 1 to 3 inches but some areas may see higher amounts. Snow will cover parts of northern New England by Sunday morning. Strong winds will continue over the Northeast Sunday.
Midwest: An area of low pressure aloft will traverse the Ohio Valley overnight and head to the Middle Atlantic region on Saturday. Rain will change to snow from west to east across Indiana, Kentucky, southern Michigan and Ohio, producing a slushy 2 to 3 inches by early Saturday. As the snow lingers through the day Saturday over the eastern Ohio Valley, areas from southeast Kentucky to southern West Virginia may see several inches of snow. Northerly winds will be gusty over Michigan and the Ohio Valley. After a chilly and blustery Saturday, temperatures will once again moderate across the region from Sunday into early next week.
South: Cold air and gusty winds will invade the Southeast overnight into Saturday. High wind watches and warnings are in effect from western Virginia to northern Georgia. Strong winds may cause trees and power lines to fall and some power outages are possible in these areas. There may be some accumulating snow in the southern Appalachians by Saturday morning and snow showers may fall all the way down to northern Georgia. Overnight rain and thunderstorms in the Carolinas will taper off to a few showers by morning as colder air and gusty northwesterly winds move in. Highs will range from the 30s over the mountains of North Carolina to the 70s in extreme southern Texas. The southern Plains and Texas will remain dry but winds will be a little lighter on Saturday. Residents of Florida will have to deal with a cool and blustery Saturday.
West: Parts of western Washington and Oregon were battered by more heavy rain on Friday. The good news is that rain will taper off to occasional showers across the northwest over the weekend but another storm will move in by Monday. To the south, an impressive upper-level system will swing into California Saturday which should allow rain showers to fall all the way down to Southern California. Flood watches are in effect for this storm in the burn areas north of Los Angeles on Saturday. Snow will also be possible in the mountains of Ventura and Los Angeles counties with the most significant accumulations expected above 6000 feet. One-to-two feet of snow will target the Sierra with snow levels starting around 6500 to 7000 feet and then falling to as low as 3500 to 4500 feet by later Saturday. The storm will shift into the Rockies and interior Southwest on Sunday. Flagstaff, Arizona, may see measurable snowfall for the first time this season Phoenix could pick up a trace or more of rain. Phoenix has not seen measurable rain in almost three months.
The Pacific Northwest will remain unsettled with more rain and mountain snow. Some parts of western Washington have already picked up over 3 inches of rain. Snow levels will reach as high as 4500 feet in the northern Cascades and 6500 feet in the northern Sierra before falling overnight and Saturday. Precipitation should become more showery across the Pacific Northwest through the weekend. To the south, a vigorous upper-level system will swing into California which should send some rain as far south as San Diego and the Mexican border. Flood watches are already in effect for this storm in the burn areas north of Los Angeles on Saturday. Snow will also be possible in the mountains of Ventura and Los Angeles counties with the most significant accumulations expected above 6000 feet. Snowfall between 1 and 2 feet will also target the Sierra with snow levels starting around 6500-7000 feet and then falling to as low as 3500-4500 feet by late Saturday. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS and Various Commercial and Media Sources)
(National Weather Service and Various Media Sources)
Tornadic Activity Forecast
A Tornado Watch is in effect until 7:00 am EST Saturday for the Virginia Portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Currituck Sound, and Atlantic Coastal Waters from Fenwick Island Delaware to Currituck Beach Light North Carolina out 20 nautical miles.
In addition, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Saturday evening and a Gale Warning remains in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday morning.
As part of this watch, the NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch for portions of eastern North Carolina, extreme northeast South Carolina, southeast Virginia, and the adjacent coastal waters effective Friday night and Saturday morning from 11:45 pm until 7:00 am EST.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Norfolk, Virginia to 35 miles east southeast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.
Tornadoes, hail to 1 inch in diameter, thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph, and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.
In addition, the NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch for portions of Delaware, Eastern Maryland, New Jersey, extreme southeastern New York, eastern Pennsylvania, and adjacent coastal waters effective this Saturday morning from 2:45 am until 9:00 am EST. Tornadoes, hail to 1 inch in diameter, thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph, and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Newark, New Jersey to 55 miles south of Patuxent River, Maryland.
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch for portions of eastern North Carolina, extreme northeast South Carolina, southeast Virginia, and adjacent coastal waters effective Friday night and Saturday morning from 11:45 pm until 7:00 am EST. Tornadoes, hail to 1 inch in diameter, thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph, and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Norfolk, Virginia to 35 miles east southeast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.
The highest tornado threat appears to have shifted northward into the Tidewater Virginia are where the boundary layer flow remains backed in response to stronger pressure fall axis over Pennsylvania. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS/SPC)
Flash Flood Watch in Effect for the Burn Areas of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties from Saturday Morning through Late Saturday Night
Minor Flooding in the Northwest and minor flooding continues at locations on more than a dozen rivers across Oregon and Washington.
Flood Watches and Warnings are posted for Oregon and Washington and Flash Flood Watches are posted for Southern California on Saturday including some of the burn areas north of Los Angeles as moderate to locally heavy rain is expected along the west coast.
The flash flood watch continues in effect for the burn areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties from Saturday morning through late Saturday night and for portions of southwest California in and near the burn areas of Topanga, Harvard, School, Gorman, Tovey, Pine, Crown, Foothill, Piru, Simi, and Padua.
A cold storm will likely bring rainfall to southern California this weekend. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall rates with the cold front could affect Ventura and Los Angeles counties late Saturday morning through Saturday evening.
Behind the cold front, a cold and slightly unstable air mass will bring the potential for thunderstorms and locally heavy showers to the area Saturday night. Overall rainfall amounts are generally expected to range between one quarter and one half inch across lower elevations, with up to one inch possible in the mountains.
Due to the potential for heavy showers and thunderstorms, locally higher rainfall numbers will certainly be possible. The flash flood watch has been issued for the burn areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties due to the potential for high intensity rainfall.
Rainfall intensities may be sufficient to produce flash flooding with mud and debris flows below the burn areas. Especially prone to flooding would be the most recent burn areas which include the Topanga, Harvard, School, Gorman, and Tovey Burn Areas. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS)
Severe Weather and Tornadoes in Region IV
Severe weather, thunderstorms, high winds, and tornadoes were reported Friday in the FEMA Region IV States of Alabama, Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.
Alabama: Emergency Management Agency (AEMA) officials are working with local officials in Conecuh County in response to an F-1 tornado in Bellville near Alabama Highway 12. Reports are that three homes were destroyed and ten have sustained major damage. The Belleville Fire Department building was destroyed. US 84 at Conecuh County Road 15 has been closed and traffic is being rerouted. Trees and power lines are down. One confirmed death in Conecuh County, Alabama; the sheriff's office confirmed the death of a woman who was killed in her home by a chimney collapse.
Georgia: Emergency Management Agency (GEMA) reports high winds in southwest part of the State and severe thunder storms.
Florida: The Division of Emergency Management (FLDEM) reported a tornado in Okaloosa County. In Baker, Florida, a section of roof was torn from a school housing students, but only caused minor injuries. A post office and several mobile homes were also damaged in Baker, about 50 miles northeast of Pensacola. Homes were also damaged in the Milton area. Trees are also reported down in other sections of Okaloosa County. No Federal assistance has been requested at this time.
South Carolina: An apparent tornado touched down in rural Clarendon County, near Manning, SC on Friday, injuring at least nine people and destroying several mobile homes, officials said. The apparent tornado was spawned from a severe weather system that brought thunderstorms to much of South Carolina.
At least three people were in serious condition, said Clarendon Memorial nursing supervisor Beverly Trotter said. The weather service will send someone to Clarendon County on Saturday to confirm whether a tornado touched down, as well as track its path and strength.
North Carolina: High winds damaged at least 20 homes in a subdivision just inside the city limits of Gastonia, North Carolina Friday night, and several witnesses reported seeing a funnel cloud. National Weather Service meteorologists in the Greenville-Spartanburg, S.C., office were unable to confirm that a tornado occurred, though the region was under a tornado watch at the time.
No one was injured, but about 20 homes in northwest Gastonia received at least some damage during the violent weather shortly after 8 p.m., police Sgt. Chad Hawkins said. At least 10 were heavily damaged.
Duke Power, which serves the city just west of Charlotte, reported 4,500 of its customers in North and South Carolina were without power after the storm system moved toward the state's eastern counties.(FEMA Region IV, Alabama Emergency Management Agency, Georgia Emergency Management Agency, Florida Division of Emergency Management, and Various Media Sources)
Texas and Oklahoma Wild Fires
Texas:
In the community of Lockhart, Texas, in Caldwell County, a fire was immediately threatening 70 to 80 homes. The population of Lockhart is 11,615. There are 10 other large uncontrolled fires burning in the State. This fire is being described as extreme and severe. The fire had burned in excess of 100 acres of State and private land.
The Acting Director of Recovery determined the Lockhart Fire threatened such destruction as would constitute a major disaster. A Fire Management Assistance Grant for the Lockhart Fire was declared on Friday, January 13, 2006.
In the last 24-hour period Texas responded to 33 fires statewide. There were 2 evacuations and no homes lost. Texas aircraft flew 52 missions and dropped 34,327 gallons of fire retardant on Thursday.
Oklahoma:
A fire began yesterday near Ratliff City, Oklahoma, a small unincorporated town in southern Oklahoma, approximately 15 miles northwest of Ardmore, Oklahoma. The fire then spread southward to the towns of Fox and Graham, during the afternoon and evening of Thursday evening into the early morning hours of Friday.
Twenty homes have been destroyed. There are four other uncontrolled fires burning nearby. This fire is being described as extreme with a rapid growth rate. The fire had burned in excess of 15,000 acres of State and private land, and forcing the evacuation of over 700 homes. So far, there have been no deaths or injuries.
The Acting Director of Recovery determined the Ratliff Fire threatened such destruction as would constitute a major disaster. A Fire Management Assistance Grant for the Ratliff Fire was declared on January 13, 2006. (NIFC and Various Media Sources)
Weather Service: No Relief Seen For N.M. Drought
The State of New Mexico has been exceptionally dry since October, and the state could have a severe fire season this year unless some unexpected precipitation arrives, the National Weather Service said and eastern New Mexico already has been hit by several large, wind-whipped grass fires.
Unless unforeseen significant precipitation develops, the fire season in 2006 is likely to be extended and severe in New Mexico, beginning in the lower elevations this month and progressing to higher elevations in the spring to early summer.
November was the ninth driest month in the past 111 years in New Mexico, and preliminary numbers suggest December also will make the list of the 10 driest months of that period.
Precipitation for November and December averaged only 11 percent of normal for the state, and by early this month, the snow pack was far below 50 percent of normal statewide.
A blaze that began Nov. 30 on the Melrose Bombing Range forced the evacuations of about 100 residents of Floyd for several hours and burned more than 27,000 acres of rangeland in eastern New Mexico. Fires in early January near Hobbs, Lovington, Tatum and Logan blackened more than 53,000 acres; burned several homes, businesses and vehicles; and forced some evacuations. (Various Media Sources)
Rain Dampens Threat of Wildfires in Arkansas
More rain reduced the threat of wildfires for parts of Arkansas, but high winds and low humidity continued to keep Arkansas forests dry, a state forestry commission official said Friday.
With January the warmest start to a year on record, the Arkansas Forestry Commission said the possibility is high of large wildfire's sparking in places like Ashley, Sebastian and Yell counties, where wildfires charred more than 6,000 acres of forest earlier in the week. The areas that have kept high fire danger are still seeing higher than average temperatures and their forest fuel supplies are drying out.
Although several counties canceled their burn bans after rain fell overnight Thursday, the second rainfall in one week, a quarter of Arkansas counties were still considered in the ``high fire danger'' zone, said the Arkansas Forestry Commission, and the rain was not enough to break a months-long drought that has parched the state.
The on-going drought, a 20-inch deficit, is the state's main problem and it is going to take a lot of rain to break the drought and those areas with a high fire danger just did not receive enough rain said the Arkansas Forestry Commission.
Recent rains gave Arkansas more rain in the first two weeks of January than the entire month of December. The rains were enough to dampen fuels like grasses, leaves and needles, but not the heavier fuels like tree limbs and logs on forest floors. About three-quarters of an inch fell statewide in that month. More rains are forecast for Sunday night and Monday. These smaller fuels react to atmospheric conditions within one hour, meaning that the high temperatures and winds and low humidity make them prime to catch fire again.
Additionally, the Arkansas Forestry Commission confirmed that the 3,600-acre wildfire in Ashley County was arson. The Arkansas Forestry Association and the Plum Creek Timber Company, which owns most of the property, are offering a $6,000 reward for information leading to the arrest of those responsible for setting the fires, he said. The fires in Sebastian and Yell counties were being investigated, as well. (Various Media Sources)
Flooding Possible in Northeast
The Flood Watch continues for portions of western Maine and northern New Hampshire, including the following areas in western Maine, central Somerset, northern Franklin, northern Oxford, southern Franklin, southern Oxford, and southern Somerset in northern New Hampshire, northern Carroll, northern Coos, northern Grafton, and Southern Coos from 7:00 am EST Saturday through late Saturday night.
The runoff could also lead to significant rises on main stem rivers. The rising water could be enough to lift and transport river ice, raising the potential for ice jam flooding throughout the North Country where early season ice jams have formed.
A low pressure developing over the Ohio Valley tonight will approach the region Saturday, then cross the coastal waters of northern New England Saturday night. The low will then move into the Maritimes Sunday. Rain will overspread the region from west to east Saturday morning, and become heavy at times Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. As colder air moves into the region, the rain will change to snow late Saturday night and Sunday from north to south.
Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain is possible with this system. Combined with snowmelt, as temperatures rise into the 40s in the headwaters, the rainfall could cause small rivers and streams to go over their banks Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. If more than 2.5 inches of rain falls into the headwaters of northern New Hampshire and western Maine, main stem river flooding may occur.
The Flood Watch continues for portions of central New York, southeastern New York and northeast Pennsylvania, including the following areas in central New York Broome, Chenango, Cortland, Delaware, Madison, northern Oneida, Otsego, Southern Oneida, and Tioga and in southeastern New York, Sullivan as well as in northeast Pennsylvania, Bradford, Lackawanna, Luzerne, northern Wayne, Pike, southern Wayne, Susquehanna, and Wyoming from 1:00 am EST Saturday through Sunday morning.
A low pressure over West Virginia this evening will track northeast to the New England coast by Saturday night. Rain will develop overnight and continue into Saturday. The heaviest rain will occur during the overnight into Saturday morning. The rain will change to snow showers before ending Saturday evening. The combination of this rain and snow melt could lead to flooding of small streams, poor drainage areas, and urban areas. In addition, minor flooding is possible along some of the larger river points in the watch area.
The greatest threat for flooding will be along small streams and creeks in the watch area. Minor flooding is possible along the Mohawk River in Utica, the main stem of the Susquehanna River in New York, as well as the Chenango and Tioughnioga Rivers.
Smaller tributaries in the Delaware Basin and the Susquehanna Basin in Pennsylvania also have the potential to flood. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS and Various Commercial and Media Sources)
Volcano in Alaska Erupts for the Fourth Time Friday
The 4,134-foot Augustine Volcano, a volcano on an uninhabited island 180 miles from Anchorage, erupted four times Friday, January 13, 2006 sending plumes of ash more than six miles into the sky.
The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) raised the Current Level of Concern Color Code to RED.
State and local communities are monitoring the situation and the State has requested that the FEMA Region X State Liaison remain with them.
The FEMA Region X State Liaison has been located with the State since the recent activity began and is coordinating information exchange with the Region including the Region X volcano scientist. The eruptions occurred around 4:00 am, 9:00 am, 11:30 am., and 4:30 pm. Alaska time (8:00 am, 1:00 pm, 3:30 pm, and 8:30 pm EST), and followed two bursts from the volcano on Wednesday. Those earlier eruptions were the volcano's first in 20 years.
Similar short-lived explosive activity is expected to continue over the next several days or weeks, a spokesperson for the AVO said, and additional eruptions could occur with little or no warning.
Airplanes were warned to keep at least five miles away from 4,134-foot Augustine Volcano and the National Weather Service warned about 16,000 residents of Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak Island to the south, an area that includes the city of Kodiak, about the ash cloud. But the AVO said it did not expect a heavy accumulation of ash. Alaska Airlines has canceled all flights into Anchorage due to the eruption of Mt. Augustine. Scheduled flights are currently canceled through 8:00 AM, January 14, 2006 and more cancellations may occur.
A Marine Weather Statement advised vessels in the vicinity of the island to exercise extreme caution since AVO stated that the intensity of the explosions suggested that moving avalanches of hot debris may have been generated that could reach the shoreline of the island and the floating rafts of pumice in Cook Inlet may occur.
Some schools on the Kenai Peninsula closed, affecting about 2,500 students. Anchorage was in no danger.
An ash-fall advisory was issued by the NWS 9:30 am EST as an ash cloud was detected moving eastward and spreading out. By 12:40 EST a spotter confirmed light ash fall 2 miles north of Homer. Residents were advised to remain at home or indoors, reduce outside activity, and keep doors and windows closed.
USGS personnel reported observation of mudflows and fieldwork results from the previous day. Ash collected on the island appears to be shattered old dome and not fresh magma. Thermal measurements suggest that new magma thought to be rising in the volcano has not yet reached the surface.
Seismic activity has decreased dramatically to a quiet level currently, however, it is likely that stronger and further volcanic activity will resume according to AVO. It is possible that this activity may mark the beginning of an eruptive phase if it follows historical eruption patterns of 1976 and 1986. AVO will continue to monitor activity on a 24-hour schedule and issue further updates as new information and analyses become available. (FEMA Region X, USDOI/USGS/ Alaska Volcano Observatory/USGS, USDOC/NOAA/National Weather Service, Alaska Department. of Homeland Security and Emergency Services, and Various Media Sources)
Tropical Activity
Tropical Cyclone Urmil is an area of convection located approximately 130 miles west-southwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 35-40 mph. The system is moving south-southeastward at 5 mph away from American Samoa. Strong northerly of 15 to 30 mph with locally higher gusts from active showery bands associated with Tropical Cyclone Urmil will continue across the islands overnight Friday. The heavy showers will cause flooding of small streams and low lying areas could also cause mud and landslide as ground is saturated.
Otherwise, there is no tropical activity affecting U.S. interests in the Pacific Oceans. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Earthquake Activity
At least 10 earthquakes ranging from magnitude 3.0 to 4.0 were detected by the US Geological Survey in the vicinity of Puerto Rico Friday. All were within 75 miles of Carolina, Puerto Rico; 20 miles east-southeast of San Juan. There were no reports of injuries or damages
In addition, at least 16 earthquakes ranging from magnitude 3.0 to 4.0 were detected by the US Geological Survey in the vicinity of Charlotte Amalie, US Virgin Islands between January 12 and 13, 2006. All were within 50 miles of Charlotte Amalie, US Virgin Islands. There were no reports of injuries or damages. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)
Wildfire Update
Approved January 13, 2006: #2618 Ratliff Fire, Oklahoma, threatening 125 homes in the communities of Central City and Tatum.
Approved January 13, 2006: #2619 Lockhart Fire, Texas, threatening 70 to 80 homes in the community of Lockhart. (FEMA HQ)
Disaster Declaration Activity
Amendment #1 to FEMA-1616-DR-North Dakota, Slope County added for Public Assistance. (FEMA HQ)
Last Modified: Wednesday, 29-Mar-2006 14:57:04 EST