FXUS62 KMHX 211355
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
955 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...SFC OBS AND SATPIX SHOWING EXTENSIVE LOW
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM. NO DRIZZLE OR RAIN HAS BEEN INDICATED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO WILL REMOVE FROM AFTERNOON FCST. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL COOL WEDGE...MAX TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH
THIS AFTERNOON AND CURRENT FCST TEMPS LOOKS FINE. UPDATE WILL BE
TO REMOVE AFTERNOON POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GENERALLY DRY WX THRU
THE EXTND PERIOD AS UPR RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BULGES EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK COLDFRONT MOVES ACROSS SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUN...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH BEST OMEGA TO THE
NORTH...SO WILL KEEP POPS BLO THRESHOLDS. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
UPR RIDGE BECOMES EVEN BETTER ESTABLISHED. TEMPS SHOULD RUN NEAR
CLIMO THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD/LARGE NE SWELL ACTION STEMMING FROM
CIRCULATION AROUND INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OFF MID-ATLANTIC COAST
REGION AND 1032MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN QUEBEC TO BE
MAIN MARINE ATTRACTION'S FROM NOW THRU THE WEEKEND. NORTHERN LEG
(CAPE LOOKOUT N) C-MAN STATIONS/BUOYS BEGINNING TO FEEL N-NE
WIND/SWELL ENERGY PUSH FROM ABOVE. S TO N...LATEST FOLLOWS: CLKN7
WINDS N AROUND 15 KTS...BUOY 41025 SEAS 6 FT/10 SEC PERIODS/N WINDS
AROUND 20-25 KTS...DUCK PIER WAVERIDER 2 MILES OUT SHOWING 7 FT SEAS
WITH N-NE WINDS @ 20 KTS. DUE TO ARRIVE IN LARGER "UPSTREAM"
FASHION...SEAS AT BUOY 44014 (64NM E OF VA BEACH) AND 44009 (26NM SE
OF CAPE MAY NJ) RUNNING 8-9 FT/9-10 SEC PERIODS WITH N-NE 20KT FLOW.
HEAVIER HITTERS A BIT FURTHER UP THE OCEAN AVENUE WITH BUOY 44004
(200NM E OF CAPE MAY NJ) HITTING 13 FT/10-11 SEC PERIODS AND WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 KTS FROM NE. WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE ALONG THE OBX
CURRENTLY 3-5 FT (TO BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY SOON)...WHILE SOUTH FACING
VENUES ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST FROM AB S TO SURF CITY AT 24 INCHES
OR LESS (DON'T LOOK FOR TOO MUCH OF A HEIGHT CHANGE ANYTIME SOON).
CWFA 0-20NM CORRIDOR WINDS/SEAS TO BUILD ACCORDINGLY OVER NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS FLOW FROM ABOVE CONTINUES AND LOW MOVES FURTHER OUT
INTO N ATLANTIC. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT FROM
YESTERDAY'S AFORMENTIONED COASTAL LOW REACHING 980MB BOMB ATTITUDE
STATUS 1000NM ENE OF HATTERAS BY LATE WEEKEND. ONLY MINOR CHANGE TO
THIS MAJOR LOW PLAYER SCENARIO IS TO FILL IN 10 MORE MBS TO THE CORE
CENTER. STILL...990MB NOTHING TO LET MARINE GUARD DOWN CONCERNING
HEIGHT AND BREATH OF LARGER SEAS TO ARRIVE. IN FACT...MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT CURRENTLY PLAYING ON NOAA WX RADIO WIRES FOR HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN LEG OF OBX ENTERING THIS EVENING AND
INTO FRIDAY. NOT TO BELABOR GFS BACKING OFF POINT...LATEST 06Z
GFS-DRIVEN NOAA WAVE WATCH III/AWIPS OSB04-09 GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTS
LOWER DOUBLE-DIGIT SEA HEIGHTS (10-13 FT) ALONG WITH LONG PERIOD
(10-13 SEC) NE SWELL FETCH ENERGY ENTERING MAINLY INTO/ONTO NORTHERN
LEG 0-20NM CORRIDOR (CAPE LOOKOUT N) WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERN
LEG SEAS NEAR FRYING PAN SHOAL BUOY COUNTRY TO MAX OUT AT 5-7 FT AS
LARGER SWELL ENERGY HEADS FURTHER S TOWARD FLORIDA'S E COAST. AS LOW
PULLS FURTHER AWAY...SEAS BEGIN SLOW DECREASE AS NEW WORK/SCHOOL
WEEK TAKES OFF. ALTHOUGH...RESIDUAL 3-6 FT (LOWER END LOOKOUT S) ENE
BACKSWELL WILL STILL BE ROLLING THRU THE MARINE WATERS. SAME EASTERN
QUEBEC CANADA HIGH THEN NOSES FURTHER DOWN INTO REGION AS FAST
SOMEWHAT UN-OBTRUSIVE SHORT WAVE SCOOTS E AND AND OFF COAST BY
SUNDAY. RESULT WILL BE WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING/BACKING FROM THE N BY
LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY...TO W THEN SW AOB 15KTS. WINDS START OFF
SUNDAY IN A WESTERLY 10-20 KT FASHION...THEN VEER TOWARD  NW AS DAY
PROGRESSES. MONDAY...BACK TO NORTHERLY 10-15 KT FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.


&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/AVIATION...11/COLLINS
MARINE...16/GC