Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6 7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
000
FXUS04 KWBC 072159
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
455 PM EST SAT FEB 07 2009
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
18Z UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO PRELIMS BASED ON SATL/RADAR
IMAGERY GIVEN REASONABLY CLOSE MODEL AGREEMENT.
SOUTHWEST...GTBASIN INTO THE SRN ROCKIES...
NO MAJOR DISAGRMNTS DAY 1 IN THE LATEST MODEL CYCLE AS THE
NEXT...IN WHAT WILL LIKELY BE AN EXTENDED SERIES OF NERN PAC HT
FALLS TO EJECT ENEWD FROM A MEAN TROF PSN ALONG OR OFF THE WEST
COAST...MOVES FROM SRN CA EWD THRU THE SWRN U.S. AND GTBASIN
REGION. STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING PWS AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WL SUPPORT MDT TO HVY PCPN AMTS OVR THE SRN GTBASIN
INTO AZ. WHILE PW VALUES DO RISE...MODEL CONT TO SHOW PW ANOMALIES
ONLY IN THE 1 TO 1.5 STD ABOVE THE MEAN RANGE AHEAD OF THIS
CLOSED LOW ACRS THE SW AND GTBASIN. THIS WL LIKELY PRECLUDE VERY
HEAVY PCPN AMTS AHEAD OF THIS TROF...ALTHOUGH MAX PCPN AMTS OF
1-2" POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF CNTRL AZ. THERE
IS ONLY SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO THE EWD PUSH OF
PCPN IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER IN PUSHING
PCPN EWD. OTHERWISE...THE OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE IS IN
AGRMNT IN SHOWING MAX .50-1.5"+ PCPN AMTS IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN
REGIONS OF CNTRL AZ..WITH LIGHTER AREAL AVG AMTS EXTENDING NWD
INTO THE GTBASIN AND SRN ROCKIES. FOR QPF DETAILS WE FOLLOWED THE
12 KM NAM OUTPUT FOR THE TERRAIN REGIONS OF CNTRL AZ/SWRN
UT...WITH THE SREF MEAN ELSEWHERE GIVEN A LARGER MODEL SPREAD AWAY
FROM THE FAVORED TERRAIN REGIONS.
NWRN CA...COASTAL PAC NW...
THE NEXT AREA OF HT FALLS TO DIVE INTO THE MEAN TROF ALONG THE
WEST COAST WL APPCH THE PAC NW COAST LATE DAY 1. THE BIGGEST
AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR DAY 1 WL BE TO ACT AS THE KICKER TO
THE LEAD SYSTEM MOVG THRU THE SW. OTHERWISE...LARGE SCALE LIFT
AND PCPN ALONG THE ASSOC FRONT WL BE MOVG INTO COASTAL NWRN CA AND
COASTAL PAC NW SUN AFTERNOON. AT THE MOMENT...GIVEN THE TIMING OF
THIS NEXT SYSTEM....PCPN AMTS DAY 1 EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT DAY
1...WITH THE LATEST OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO.
OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...
THE AMPLIFYING UPR FLOW ACRS NERN NOAM WL HELP PUSH A CDFNT SEWD
DAY 1 ACRS THE NERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. WHILE PW VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OVERALL
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR LIFT IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE.
SUBSEQUENTLY...EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT PCPN AMTS ALONG THE BNDRY FROM
THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXCEPTIONS MAY BE IN UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE
SOME MDT PCPN AMTS OF .10-.20"+ ARE POSSIBLE.
CNTRL PLAINS...
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE SFC FRONT EXTENDING
WWD FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN LATE DAY 1 AHEAD OF THE ENEWD EJECTING SWRN CLOSED LOW.
AT THE MOMENT...SGFNT PCPN LIKELY TO WAIT UNTIL AFTER THE DAY 1
PERIOD..WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AMTS EXPECTED OVR THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
IN THE REGION OF OVERRUNNING.
DAY 2...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 2...AND
WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
MAJOR PRCIPITATION EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE WITH THE
FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GLFMEX FROM TX TO ND. AS THE
SURFACE LOW BECOMES FOCUSED IN THE DAKOTAS DIFFERENCES START TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC. THE EC SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
500 THAN THE GFS AND MOVES THE SFC LOW ACCORDINGLY. THE RUN TO RUN
CONSISSTENCY OF THE GFS...AND THE HINT OF A TREND IN THE EC TO
MOVE TOWARD THE GFS...LEADS US TO FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION. THE
IMPACT WILL BE TO HOLD ONTO THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF IN A BAND
FROM CENTRAL NE ACRS CENTRAL SD AND E-CENTRAL ND.
MEANWHILE THE CONTINUING LONG WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND
THE COLD AIR WILL LEAD TO OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SNOW. HEAVIEST
QPF WILL DEVEOP IN AZ AS DIGGING TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CA INTO SW.
DAY 3...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE REASONABLY CONSISTENT. MOST
NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IS IN THE PROGRESS OF THE 500 TROUGH INTO
CANADA WHILE THE GFS HOLDS BACK MORE IN THE DAKOTAS. SURFACE LOW
WRAPPING UP IN MN COMPAERS WITH SFC LOW ON EC MOVING NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. MANUAL GRAPHICS FAVOR THE GFS FOR ITS CONSISTENCY AND
THEREFORE MAINTAINED THE HEAVIER PCPN IN THE COMMA HEAD OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS.
MEANWHILE THE SURF HIGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW THE
SPREAD OF PCPN UP THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APLCNS...FROM LOWER MS
VALLEY UP THE OH VALLEY AND INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES.
ORAVEC/SULLIVAN/KELLY
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 09/00Z
0.01 491675 490670 488670 484666 480662 478657 473655 468653
465653 463655 446670 443681 442690 443697 443705 439711
436714 434720 423727 421729 421733 423735 428736 431735
430740 427743 424749 419758 414766 407775 397784 387791
382796 376801 370807 368811 365813 359817 354823 347834
347837 348840 353842 355847 357854 359862 359869 358922
359936 359944 361951 362957 361963 361970 362976 364981
363989 361995 356999 353002 348003 345004 342007 339011
339020 340031 337033 333034 328035 315038 311039 307042
303046 301052 296062 291068 284075 280078 276078 266081
256084 253086 252089 254093 258096 270099 274103 274105
276111 274115 263118 257120 252122 249125 245130 245140
247144 250148 254152 257154 267159 286166 297169 304172
315176 323182 330190 337201 340207 343209 348211 350211
352208 356202 360196 365196 370197 375201 392214 397217
400222 400224 397227 390227 384224 380222 376218 372216
369216 367219 367224 367230 372238 380248 388256 398265
406269 416272 422273 430273 440272 451272 466275 478279
502290 507289 510287 513282 516277 519269 519263 516254
513247 508237 505231 501227 497222 495221 494225 494234
496240 496242 472232 461233 447229 437224 432225 428229
425231 419229 417228 417224 415219 405209 397202 392199
390195 390190 391183 393167 394161 397157 405148 414139
420135 427131 437121 447118 452115 453113 455106 453100
450093 444089 441088 429088 424088 420091 418095 414093
414085 415078 417065 414059 410056 400052 396048 395042
397038 401034 407031 413029 423028 432025 435021 433013
429995 427988 422985 413980 409977 404976 390978 385977
380974 375960 374953 374946 376921 378910 379904 383900
387900 389897 393893 399881 406866 412852 421827 427816
432805 443782 446778 449771 455760 460752 470742 474738
478731 481719 486694 491675
0.25 430248 431244 430243 427240 425239 422238 419238 416237
413237 411238 410238 407240 406240 405244 406246 408247
411248 414248 417249 420250 422250 423250 426250 429248
430248
0.25 402076 400071 394067 391066 388068 384069 379068 375065
372063 371065 370068 371077 374084 377089 374093 369097
366098 360093 350085 342081 333076 327076 324078 321084
315088 308087 299084 288084 284084 278087 276092 279096
286101 293105 297108 298112 297117 298122 300126 309131
314133 315137 317141 322145 334146 340147 347149 352151
354154 357159 360164 363170 364173 363177 361180 361185
366187 371189 374184 373179 374175 376168 379153 381137
384127 385120 386117 385113 379105 379101 381099 384096
391090 399083 402076
0.25 372054 371050 369049 366049 364050 361051 360051 358054
359058 361059 364059 365058 367057 369056 372054
0.25 366111 368107 366105 363104 360105 358107 360109 362111
363111 366111 366111
0.50 380123 381119 380118 378119 377121 376122 376126 376127
377126 379123 380123
0.50 367150 363143 362132 360122 355117 351114 350110 346103
344095 341087 338085 333083 330085 329088 328095 326098
323105 323108 322111 318114 317116 317119 325131 327137
330139 338142 355145 358144 361146 366151 367150
1.00 351127 353120 350117 346114 343112 340107 338107 337109
336116 337120 338126 339133 342134 347135 350134 349130
351127
1.00 339095 338092 336095 338098 339095
24HR QP VT 10/00Z
0.01 538212 536206 533204 529193 525190 520188 515199 515205
515209 513212 509213 503210 495204 491202 487202 482201
478203 469205 462205 457203 457201 461192 467187 473183
476180 478177 481174 484174 488175 491171 490166 485157
478151 469144 463140 460139 455138 448137 445137 442133
437126 437121 440120 444121 450120 452118 455113 458105
457101 453097 448093 446091 441088 436092 431091 427091
427093 427097 424100 417101 415099 414097 412087 413084
415082 419079 421075 421070 421061 421048 424045 426043
429042 432043 435044 441050 446055 453058 462059 473059
483055 490049 494045 497041 499037 500032 502025 506019
512016 516011 516007 515999 511983 509977 508970 509961
509953 508945 506937 504928 503921 500905 497894 494884
489875 484863 479856 476854 472853 461855 444863 439864
432863 423862 418862 412862 404865 397868 388873 374882
364891 349902 333910 310918 305921 300921 296920 290922
288925 289931 292938 291940 287942 285949 289960 287968
287972 291974 293977 292983 291991 291997 293003 295011
296015 295018 293022 290026 289031 288040 290045 293049
299052 304052 309050 316048 325046 333044 341045 349048
352053 356061 359070 361075 361079 353080 345084 341082
337078 330076 327081 323091 313091 310093 308097 307103
307108 307114 308120 314126 328132 331136 329139 323142
316147 312153 309159 308164 307172 310176 313182 317186
326192 332196 336202 342215 351227 356234 362242 376253
384257 393261 403263 408264 415264 426264 435262 441263
445262 453261 468261 477265 482270 495282 500289 501291
505292 512290 520269 522266 522265 523261 523260 522255
521253 519249 516244 516243 515238 518235 521236 523237
526238 527237 530235
0.01 461709 459702 455701 450706 445710 442712 441715 441719
443727 444731 447733 449732 455729 457727 461719 462714
461709
0.25 503238 501233 500228 497222 493219 490216 485213 479211
476212 472215 475219 481221 487222 491225 493230 497236
499237 503238
0.25 495996 495988 494981 491971 487959 484943 482934 478927
475920 473917 467914 463914 460916 452921 444925 438927
435927 423922 421923 418927 418936 419962 418967 416971
407976 400981 395983 387985 380985 376982 373979 369973
363966 363962 368958 377950 379948 379942 379936 383933
392922 395918 394915 391910 385910 378912 370915 364920
357924 349928 343932 334938 327944 318953 314958 312964
311975 312980 314986 313993 310000 308006 309012 308019
306027 304032 306037 310038 314038 326036 334033 341034
347035 363039 370040 377039 386039 397041 403042 409041
415037 420033 426029 430029 440030 448032 455031 458030
464026 470025 475025 480022 484019 492007 495000 495996
0.25 466239 468235 466233 459229 455229 453231 451229 453226
460228 465223 469220 470217 458218 454218 451220 443219
424222 418221 419213 417209 417204 416200 413197 410199
407201 404200 399196 396196 390194 386190 379186 372183
362180 351181 348177 347172 344164 341161 337160 325159
320161 318167 320171 324175 332179 336183 345203 350212
354219 357223 361228 366231 372234 376230 376226 374220
365208 359201 357198 361195 370201 381211 401223 403236
410238 416237 424242 428240 430239 432241 436244 442246
449246 454245 461241 466239
0.25 460182 462177 460175 454176 451178 447180 444183 441188
439194 439198 442202 444199 446195 449193 452194 455190
458185 460182
0.25 424166 425161 424156 421146 419142 417140 413140 401147
399147 392143 382135 379130 377123 371122 365117 361116
358115 354112 350108 346103 341097 338095 332107 332112
334116 339131 343136 347139 364141 367146 369153 371158
376163 381168 387171 392172 398173 403176 406178 410177
416169 424166
0.25 412018 411017 409015 408013 405011 402008 402007 399007
396008 395008 393011 392013 392016 394019 394020 397021
400021 401023 403024 406023 407022 408022 411019 412018
0.25 407068 404066 401067 400068 398069 395070 394072 392075
392076 392079 392080 395083 398083 401080 402079 404077
405076 406072 407070 407068
0.25 380014 379013 376013 373014 372014 374015 376015 379017
380014
0.25 379083 378079 375078 374079 374083 375085 378085 379083
0.50 486988 487979 484971 478963 475960 471956 464953 458952
452955 447961 437967 433970 431973 428977 423982 419984
415985 409984 402988 400991 401997 411999 417002 428017
441018 449019 455019 460018 469014 475012 478009 483999
486988
0.50 408218 405210 400205 395201 389198 385195 381193 376190
372188 368189 367193 372199 377204 383208 391212 396217
400219 404218 408218
0.50 399031 397030 394029 391028 391027 389027 386027 384028
385032 386032 389033 392033 394033 397032 399031
0.50 384921 380917 375917 371920 368925 363930 338944 332947
326954 323960 321966 322975 320984 316996 312023 311029
315031 319031 326028 331025 339014 344010 347006 353001
363000 367998 367995 366988 363983 356977 353971 351968
351964 358951 366940 376930 384921
0.50 377141 376137 376133 376132 373131 371133 371136 372140
373141 375143 377141
0.50 364218 364216 362214 361212 359210 358209 356207 353207
353208 353210 353211 355215 355216 357219 359220 360221
361221 363220 364218
0.50 364026 363024 360023 359023 357022 354021 351021 351023
351024 353027 354028 357029 360029 363029 364026
0.50 357124 359121 357118 356117 354116 351113 349111 347110
346109 344106 343105 340104 339106 338109 338112 340116
340117 341119 342123 345126 348123 351125 354126 356125
357124
0.50 345192 345187 344182 345175 344171 342166 336163 331162
328162 325162 322165 322168 326172 330173 335174 337179
340181 342188 344192 345192
1.00 471995 473990 471986 467983 464980 461978 455979 452981
447986 444988 443991 444995 447998 451999 457999 462998
468997 471995
1.00 400212 397209 394206 389203 386200 381198 377195 375195
377199 380201 385204 388206 391207 393210 396212 400212
1.00 341962 340962 337962 335963 334964 335965 338965 340964
341962
1.00 338987 337986 334987 333984 331984 329987 328988 326991
326992 325995 327996 328995 329994 332992 333991 335988
337987 338987
1.00 337980 334980 333981 334983 337981 337980
24HR QP VT 11/00Z
0.01 524257 518240 513227 505210 496198 492194 487192 479191
472189 467185 465178 469179 480182 486183 492180 497176
501169 505164 507161 507159 505155 497144 492138 487131
483127 482124 479124 475124 470128 464129 461130 457129
450126 454120 457112 458106 457101 453093 450088 446086
447083 453080 456077 457072 453066 449061 446056 452055
460055 474054 488053 495053 502052 514046 518044 521045
527048 533052 538053 544053 547046 547030 546016 545002
543993 541979 539970 534950 532942 531936 528926 523901
517880 514874 511861 506842 502821 496800 494794 492790
487783 480772 476771 472774 464780 452788 448800 442793
441785 444776 449763 452757 453748 455740 454734 452730
447724 442720 434714 425708 418704 413703 408701 405699
402702 395714 391722 389728 388735 387742 387755 387763
386770 382782 379795 377800 377806 378814 375821 368832
364839 360844 353854 338877 332886 329890 323892 318887
312885 302880 296872 287863 283860 278859 275859 272860
271864 271870 274877 276883 279888 293906 296914 296924
297932 296940 293953 290966 287979 286983 286991 288994
290997 295002 300004 304004 308002 318997 331994 337992
341990 347987 350985 360978 370970 380961 388953 394946
398940 400937 403940 405949 401967 401974 402985 406001
411014 415027 418033 413034 406032 402033 398034 386036
378037 372040 366041 363044 357044 353040 349037 346033
340020 336018 331018 325022 320028 316042 311055 310062
308068 301091 297099 295106 297110 301116 304120 306126
311129 315130 318129 328124 332125 335130 341137 345141
349144 352144 358139 363136 372144 377145 379144 383143
384146 384156 385164 386175 391178 399179 406179 405169
407167 410170 412176 418180 421181 424181 425177 425174
423170 426170 432167 437169 439173 439176 431184 422194
419199 414200 402195 388194 381193 377193 374195 377202
379210 376213 370215 366219 367228 365243 366251 370257
374261 379266 391275 394278 395283 396290 400295 407300
417304 428309 434311 438314 444319 451321 456322 461325
471330 478333 487335 495334
0.01 446088 444084 441088 444089 446088
0.01 370806 369803 366802 358807 353811 348816 344821 342829
344839 346843 350844 354842 357838 359833 363824 365819
368811 370806
0.01 340171 339165 336163 331160 328159 323156 319157 314160
311161 311165 313168 316170 321174 326175 332173 335172
340171
0.25 510284 508263 504254 501245 498235 493227 487223 478220
470214 462211 456211 448212 440214 434217 424230 416230
409225 404226 397229 391234 389240 391244 397249 402255
412269 424274 430278 435281 436284 444299 447304 450306
455308 464312 473315 480315 485314 488312 493309 497302
502296 506292 510284
0.25 526005 525996 524988 520974 518970 514967 509967 507964
500958 493951 488945 486938 486930 487925 491912 492907
492899 491891 489884 467854 464849 465845 460839 452835
446832 439826 432821 429817 427811 425799 423792 421786
415776 412772 409774 405781 400790 398799 394818 391826
386833 373846 367853 362860 357867 355875 352882 346889
341894 337898 336901 332909 330913 330918 332923 334925
341927 351925 360926 364926 371919 378912 382906 387898
393893 399892 403893 411895 419898 425902 434907 439912
444921 446926 447932 447948 449955 449960 448964 441982
439987 439992 438005 438011 440018 443026 449033 452036
458038 466041 473042 479043 484042 492039 499035 505030
518018 521015 524011 526005
0.25 412114 412113 409110 406109 404110 403111 400113 400114
402117 403118 405119 408118 409118 411116 412114
0.25 402076 403071 402066 398061 389062 382064 375062 371059
364060 357061 352064 349068 347074 343075 339073 332073
328077 324082 320092 314101 311106 311110 312113 326114
330113 333114 337117 345126 350128 352127 352123 353119
353114 352109 351101 352095 356090 360086 366084 372086
376087 381085 386082 393081 402076
0.25 377948 375941 369937 362935 358935 354937 346941 341943
327948 319952 316957 315964 316970 320976 325982 331982
339980 345977 350972 355967 360963 371956 376952 377948
0.50 495273 496262 494251 490243 486241 478243 471244 468248
467253 465258 465263 467266 470268 477274 481275 488274
495273
0.50 474295 472292 471290 469288 468288 466289 463290 463292
463295 464297 467299 470299 471298 474296 474295
0.50 496018 494011 491005 488998 485990 480976 477975 475977
472982 465993 461997 454999 450000 447001 445007 445012
446016 449023 453026 458030 467034 475036 482036 489033
493028 496021 496018
0.50 458223 457221 454219 451219 448219 445219 444220 445224
447226 450227 453226 456225 458223
0.50 415792 413789 409787 404789 403793 403798 405805 406813
405817 407818 409816 411813 413809 415804 415796 415792
0.50 422842 422836 421830 418827 415826 411827 409826 404833
400839 396845 392850 389857 391862 395863 399863 405863
413858 415853 420846 422842
0.50 397879 399875 398871 395870 392871 385878 377886 373891
365897 360901 358905 358910 359912 362911 367910 370911
373909 377904 383898 390889 395883 397879
0.50 371946 366942 358942 350945 344948 338953 334957 330964
331969 336970 340969 344966 349963 354960 361955 367951
371946
0.50 377075 377072 375069 375068 372065 369063 367065 369067
371068 372071 373072 374075 375076 377075
0.50 344113 345106 344099 344095 341090 338087 333085 332085
331092 329097 327100 324105 329108 332109 337112 340114
344113
$$
