FXUS63 KDTX 160101 AFDDTX SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 900 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003 NO UPDATE TO FORECAST NEEDED THIS EVENING. LAST OF CU ALONG WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE FROM LAKE BREEZE OFF ERIE CURRENTLY FADING INTO THE SUNSET. THICKER CIRRUS IN ADVANCE OF WISCONSIN UPPER SYSTEM STREAMING OVER NORTHERN LOWER AND ONLY BRUSHING THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB...LEAVING A CLEAR NIGHT FOR THE AREA. SEE LITTLE REASON FOR ANY FOG TO FORM TONIGHT AFTER MINIMAL FOG LAST NIGHT AND AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE ATT. *** 130 PM DISCUSSION *** DRIER AIR IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. RIDGING MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WHICH REALLY HELPED DRY US OUT...AS INDICATED BY 12Z DTX SOUNDING. FOG WAS PRETTY MUCH CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. CU HAS ALSO HAD A DIFFICULT TIME DEVELOPING TODAY. JUST SOME SCT CU AROUND THIS AFTERNOON...HELPED OUT BY SOME CONVERGENCE/POOLING OF MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF LAKE BREEZES. WITH THE SUNSHINE TODAY...SEE NO REASON TO ADD FOG TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT...AS THE LOW LEVELS HAVE CONTINUED TO DRY OUT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A SHORTWAVE SPINNING OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN. VISIBLE/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO ILLINOIS TOMORROW..AND THEN TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A MINIMAL AFFECT ON OUR WEATHER (JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS). PLAN ON GOING WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 80 ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY THE GFS) LOOKS A LITTLE TOO COOL. DON'T THINK THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL AFFECT TEMPS BY MORE THAN TWO DEGREES OR SO. WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH WHICH DIVES DOWN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND....LEADING TO AN EVENTUAL CUTOFF. THIS RESULT'S IN A BETTER SHOT OF COOL AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...AS 1020+ MB SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE BEGUN THE TREND AND LOWERED TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH REMOVING THE THREAT OF ANY PRECIP. .EXTENDED... THE GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUES. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT CUTOFF LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND SLOWLY BREAK DOWN. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE NORMAL DAYS 6 AND 7. IN FACT...WE HAVE A SHOT AT HITTING 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY. NOT GOING THAT WARM JUST YET. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...GOOD RETURN FLOW WILL BE COMING UP FROM THE GULF. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S WILL BE STREAMING NORTHWARD. SUMMER OFFICIALLY BEGINS ON JUNE 21ST...AND IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE MOTHER NATURE WILL BE COOPERATING...AS THE THREE H'S (HAZY...HOT...HUMID) MAY MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE HERE IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR ALL THOSE WHO COMPLAINED ABOUT THE COOL START TO JUNE...ENJOY THIS VERY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER. IT ALL BALANCES OUT IN THE END. .DTX...NONE. $$ GURNEY EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE)