AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 210 PM MDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY) ...MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN REGION ATTM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING MINOR EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ATTM. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING SNOW COVER PERSISTING ACROSS PIKES PEAK AND PALMER DVD REGION AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST MTS...THE RATON MESA AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE PURGATOIRE RIVER BASIN. SNOW COVER ALSO APPARENT IN SFC OBS WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS SNOW COVERED AREAS AND IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSE WHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN BUILDS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MINOR EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE FLOW LOOK TO ONLY KEEP OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WARM AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH H7 TEMPS PROGGED TO WARM TO BETWEEN +2C AND +6C BY 00Z SUNDAY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE AOB GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT...AS DRY AIR...WEAK WINDS AND SNOW COVER TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE TEMPERED HIGHS FOR SATURDAY ACROSS SNOW COVERED AREAS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE GOOD MELTING ON SATURDAY. -MW .LONG TERM... (SUN THROUGH FRI) ...SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AND SNOW MELT CONTINUES SUN... ...SHALLOW COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CO MON NIGHT... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. H7 TEMPERATURES WARM TO +6C TO +8C ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPING AT 6K-9K FT MSL ALONG OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS SAT NIGHT. TRIED TO CAPTURE THIS IN THE DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE. WITH STRENGTHENING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON SUN...WARM AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO SHOULD BE COMMON. CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAKE ON MORE WATER...BUT THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ANTICIPATED. MON AND MON NIGHT...A WEAK SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER MILD AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY DAY WILL BE IN THE OFFING. TOWARDS MON NIGHT...A MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN JET STREAM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. GFS...DGEX AND ECMWF ARE HAVING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CO MON NIGHT. HINTS OF SOME LOW GRADE MOISTURE...SO WILL HAVE VERY LOW POPS WITH THE HIGHER END OF THE LOW POPS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TUE AND WED...RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT FURTHER WEST INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. IT WILL LIKELY BACKUP INTO OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND MAKE FOR CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE AND WED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO WILL LIKELY BE 15-25 DEGREES COLDER THAN MON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE AND WED COULD BE EVEN COLDER IF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TOUGH CALL THIS FAR OUT. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY INCLUDING LOW GRADE MOISTURE. AS TYPICAL WITH THIS PATTERN...THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND UPPER AR RIVER VALLEY MIGHT BE THE WARMER SPOTS THESE DAYS. ADDED SOME VERY LOW POPS WITH THE HIGHER END OF THE LOW POPS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TOWARDS PIKES PEAK. THU AND FRI...WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE CP AIR MASS SHOULD RECEDE FROM EASTERN CO...SO MODERATING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING. METZE && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 23/17 co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1025 AM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .DISCUSSION... ...CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT... RADAR AND FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONVERGENT LINE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF GRAND BAHAMA AND BAHAMA BANKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND FROM INDIAN RIVER TO MARTIN COUNTY (TREASURE COAST). RADAR INDICATING WHAT MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES FALLING OUT OF THE STRATOCU DECK COMING ASHORE JUPITER INLET TO FORT PIERCE AND VERO BEACH. SATELLITE CLOUD MOTION TRENDS AND LATEST RUC AND WRF_NMM8 MODEL RUNS INDICATE CONVERGENT LINE(S)WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER THE TREASURE/SPACE COASTS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...SHOWERS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL ADD SPRINKLES TO THE TREASURE COAST. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED OVER NORTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. BASED UPON 06Z MODEL OUTPUT AND NEW SPC DAY 1 SVR OUTLOOK (SLGT RISK NORTH OF SRQ-MCO-TTS) WILL HEIGHTEN STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM LAKE...ORANGE...NORTH BREVARD COUNTY NORTH. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THE INSTABILITY IS QUESTIONABLE BUT THE FORECAST LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. INSTABILITY DOES NOT HAVE TO BE THAT GREAT....ESPEC CONSIDERING COASTAL WATER TEMPS WILL AID IN LOCAL DEW POITN RECOVERY TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT WE ARE IN THE EARLY PART OF A DEVELOPING EL NINO EVENT ...AND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHIFTS TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WILL PLAN ON MENTIONING THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL IN THE NORTH. WILL ALSO ADD MENTION OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TO ZFP TEXT FROM ORANGE AND NORTH BREVARD NORTH. && .MARINE...WINDS ALREADY PEAKING AROUND 20 KNOTS AT THE BUOY EAST OF SAINT AUGUSTINE AND 15-20 KNOTS AT THE BUOYS EAST OF NEW SYMRNA BEACH AND PORT CANAVERAL. INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL LEAD TO DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. WILL CARRY AN EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL OF THE WATERS TODAY. MARINE MOS HAS BEEN SHOWING 25-30 KNOTS TONIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE 20-60NM LEG AND ALSO INITIATE AN ADVISORY FOR THE 0-20NM LEG STARTING THIS EVENING. PASSAGE OF A BROKEN LINE OF QUICK MOVING STORMS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. && .AVIATION...EXPECT SOME STRATOCU CEILINGS AOB 35KFT WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BY LATE AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT. DURING THE EVENING HOURS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SQUALL LINE. IT LOOKS LIKE PASSAGE OF A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR AFTER 06Z AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER. && .FIRE WEATHER...SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EARLY ON SAT WILL BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT INCREASING 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE DAY. DRIER AIR MASS ON SUN BEHIND FRONT BUT MIN RH VALUES ONLY EXPECTED AROUND 40 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 20-60 NM OFFSHORE FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT. .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS 0-20NM OFFSHORE TONIGHT. && $$ WIMMER/CRISTALDI fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 925 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .UPDATE...COLD FRONT JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 00Z. SOUTHERN LOW OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY MOVING NORTHEAST WITH MAIN RAIN SHIELD OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND AREAS SOUTH. GREATEST PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PA AND EASTERN OHIO WILL KEEP MOVEMENT OF STORM SYSTEM UP THE OHIO VALLEY PER MODEL FORECASTS. WOULD EXPECT MAIN RAIN SHIELD TO STAY SOUTH OF OF FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. RUC SHOWS COLD FRONT TO THE WEST TO ENTER WESTERN PART OF CWA AROUND 10Z. SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EXTRAPOLATED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PART OF CWA AROUND 08Z. WILL ADJUST TIMING OF PRECIPITATION INTO FA BACK A COUPLE OF HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL IN BALL PARK. CAMPBELL && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 409 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006 MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF THE TWOS STORMS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH THE COLD FRONT DRAGGING THROUGH MINNESOTA. THE SECOND IS THE STORM THAT IS IN THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS SECOND SYSTEM HAS A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY KPAH TO CYYZ. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ALMOST NON-EXISTENT WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM AND THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM HAS KEPT ITS PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KMTC TO ABOUT KCMI. MODELS (NAM AND GFS) ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE STORM THROUGH 84 HOURS. THERE ARE SOME TIMING PROBLEMS WITH MOISTURE LEAVING THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. TONIGHT...DRY AIR CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS IS ERODING SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT BROUGHT ABOUT THE CU FROM THE E TO SE FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ONCE THE SUN SETS IN THE EVENING, THERE WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES BEFORE THE NORTHERN WAVE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ENERGY AND BRING THE CLOUDS TO AN INCREASE. THIS HOLDS OFF THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL AROUND 06Z AS THERE ARE BARELY ANY CLOUDS UPSTREAM UNTIL YOU GET TO W LAKE SUPERIOR. AFTER 06Z,PRETTY DEFINITE RAIN AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN STORM BEGINS TO GET SUCKED INTO THE COLD FRONT AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PUSHING THROUGH N MINNESOTA. 850 TEMPERATURES 12Z REMAIN AT OR ABOVE -2C. THIS TYPICALLY IS TOO WARM FOR ANY MIX, SO WILL GO WITH ALL RAIN. SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FORECAST REGION SO THAT BY 00Z, THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL OFF. NE LOWER REMAINS WARMER THAN -5C THROUGH 00Z WITH NW LOWER BEGINNING TO FALL OFF INTO TO BETWEEN -5C AND -10C. SO WILL GO WITH A MIX IN THE AFTERNOON IN E UPPER AND NW LOWER. WINDS OVER THE AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH WIND GUSTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STATE BEGINNING TO GO ABOVE 45 MPH OVER THE LAND. THE 850 MB WINDS ARE AROUND 50 KNOTS ON THE GFS AND THE NAM NEAR PLN. SO HAVE PUT UP THE WIND WATCH FOR NE LOWER NEAR THE LOW'S CENTER AND AN ADVISORY FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE STATE SINCE IT IS AWAY FROM THE LOW. LUTZ LATER PERIODS...AN ACTIVE PATTERN SHAPING UP THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY...THE GENERAL PATTERN OVER THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS WILL CONTINUE WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH WANTING TO HANG ON ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...SO THIS FORECAST TAKES A BLEND OF THE MODELS. LAKE EFFECT PRECIP AND STRONG WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE HEADLINES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK ON ITS HEALS...ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL SEND MORE COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH REINFORCING SHORTWAVES...COLD AIR ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTH POLE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND KEEP THE GREAT LAKES COLD. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE KEEPS MOVING EAST INTO QUEBEC AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING LEAVES WITH IT. HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION WILL SET IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW BRINGING DOWN 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN THE -5C AND -7C RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES (DELTA T'S 14C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND 15C OVER LAKE MICHIGAN) TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER INLAND AREAS AND A MIX ALONG THE COASTLINES. SATURDAY EVENING STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION SINCE 850-700RH WILL BE GREATER THAN 70 PCT AND INVERSION HEIGHTS GREATER THAN 7KFT WILL BE PRESENT. THIS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY DURING THE 2ND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS PULLS THIS MOISTURE AWAY MUCH QUICKER THAN THE NAM (AND BRINGS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FASTER THAN ANY OTHER MODELS)...AND LIKE THE IDEA OF KEEPING THE MOISTURE AROUND A LITTLE LONGER. WILL THEREFORE KEEP POPS IN THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE REMAINING INSTABILITY FOR WNW FLOW AREAS...EVEN THOUGH INVERSION HEIGHTS AND RH FALLS. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. AS IT PASSES...850MB TEMPS WARM ABOVE 0C ENDING ALL NUISANT LAKE EFFECT PRECIP AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SENDING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z TUES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR WESTERN SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER BECAUSE OF 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN LESS THAN 10MB OF CPD. 850MB TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 2-3C RANGE...PROMOTING TEMPS ACTUALLY NEAR NORMAL INTO THE 50S. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEVERAL FEATURES ARE COMING TOGETHER THAT SUGGEST A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS AT THIS TIME ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...BUT THEIR DIFFERENCES RESIDE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD POOL THAT WILL BE DIVING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS AGREE THAT THE NEGATIVE NAO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. TYPICALLY...POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THIS VICINITY CORRESPOND TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A BLOCKING RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WHOSE AXIS RUNS THROUGH THE BERING STRAITS BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NW TERRITORIES AND THE YUKON...WHICH IS NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR LATER PERIODS. WITH SUCH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPING...THE SIGNATURE FOR A COLD PERIOD IS PRESENT. SO FOR THE DETAILS...A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SEND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING AND THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY (850MB TEMPS +4C). BEHIND THE FRONT...850MB TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL WELL BELOW 0C (GFS -8C TO -10C...ECMWF -6C TO -8C) AND PLENTY COLD FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP TO START...BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY AIR IN THE 850-700MB LAYER MOVING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO NOT SURE A LARGE LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO IS SHAPING UP. ONCE WE GET EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH...MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE POLAR VORTEX (ONE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON)...WHICH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC. IN GENERAL...MODELS SHOW WEAK CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WILL KEEP POPS ALONG THE WESTERLY FLOW AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ON AVERAGE...850MB TEMPS ARE 2C-3C WARMER IN THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS TYPICALLY TOO COLD IN THESE TYPE OF SCENARIOS...AND WITH THE LACK OF STRONG MERIDIONAL FLOW...TEND TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES (MODELS TRENDING WARMER ALSO). MPC && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...STORM WARNING...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LHZ347-348. GALE WARNING...SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... LSZ321-LMZ341-342-344-345-323. GALE WARNING...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... LSZ322-LHZ345-346-349. WIND ADVISORY...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... MIZ008-016-019>022-025>028-031>034. HIGH WIND WATCH...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... MIZ017-018-023-024-029-030-035-036-041-042. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 700 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .AVIATION... WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FROM FNT SOUTHWARD IN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. BEST LIFT IS ADVANCING EASTWARD...BUT ADDITIONAL LIFT EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AS SURFACE AND UPPER LOW TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...REINFORCING LOW CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. THE SAGINAW VALLEY REMAINS ON THE FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH SURFACE COL REGION REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN SAGINAW VALLEY...SO ANTICIPATE MAINLY MVFR IN SAGINAW AREA...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR. SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z AS UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MERGES WITH UPPER TROF DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANTICIPATE WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY 15-18Z SATURDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 20-30 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z...AND PERSISTING TO THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST 18Z-00Z. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 00-06Z UNDER DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW. MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO DECREASE AFTER 06Z...WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AND BROKEN MVFR CIGS. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION A 996MB SURFACE LOW WAS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 19Z AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ABOUT 1MB/HR. PRESSURE FALLS WERE APPROACHING 5-6MBS/3HRS ACROSS CENTRAL-EASTERN KENTUCKY AS 150KT 300MB JET WAS DIVING INTO THE DAKOTAS. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FAVORS A MORE WESTERN TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW WITH THE UKMET/WRF-HEMI AND SHORT RANGE RUC ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. WITH THAT SAID...RAPID DEEPENING SHOULD COMMENCE TONIGHT WITH THE TRACK BETWEEN CLE/BUF OVERNIGHT THEN INTO LOWER ONTARIO/QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE RAIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT SOUTH OF M59 AND EAST OF I75 OVERNIGHT. WITH THE SURGE OF WARMER AIR AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE AS WELL FOR MOST OF THE CWA. THE UKMET LOOKS GOOD WITH CURRENT SURFACE LOW TRACK/INTENSITY AND IT REMAINS THE DEEPEST AT 970MB SATURDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS LOW BOTTOM OUT ANOTHER COUPLE OF MILLIBARS. THE HIGH WIND WATCH ISSUED EARLIER LOOKS GOOD AS BUFKIT PROFILES FROM THE NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD 5000 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE 60KTS RESIDES. FURTHERMORE...SINKING MOTIONS SEEN IN THE CROSS SECTIONS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE TO FURTHER ASSIST WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM. EVENING/OVERNIGHT TEAM WILL HAVE ONE MORE LOOK AND CAN GO AHEAD WITH EITHER AN ADVISORY OR WARNING. LOW WRAPS UP TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH COLD ADVECTION DIVING INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD -6C. HARD TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL OCCUR BUT WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES HANGING OUT AROUND 1305-1310DM...AND WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...HARD PRESSED TO GET MUCH ACCUMULATIONS BUT WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE WE ARE ABLE TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SUNSET. LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE BIG EASTERN LAKES STORM...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FOR SUNDAY. 850 TEMPS START TO WARM DURING THE DAY TOO...SO WHATEVER LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO THE CLOUDS THERE IS TO START THE DAY WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT SUNDAY. THAT WILL GIVE MOST OF THE CWA MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE COMES THE POTENTIAL OF INCREASING THE MIXING HEIGHTS AND BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...POTENTIALLY STILL IN ADVISORY LEVEL OF 45 MPH OR GREATER...THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS NAM HOLDS ON TO 925 MB WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. GRADIENT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL STILL PLAGUE LAKE HURON AND EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY WITH FREQUENT GUST REACHING 48 KTS...AND AGAIN THE NAM HAS 45 TO 50 KTS AT 925 MB OVER THE LAKE THROUGH AROUND 18Z. WILL GO TOWARD THE WARMER MAV/MET GUIDANCE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND 850 WARMING THAT TAKES PLACE ON SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT WARMING CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH 850 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +12C ON SW 850 MB WINDS OF 40 KTS. AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH TEMPS ABOVE 60 AND ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN THE 12Z MEX NUMBERS. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND INCREASED MIXING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH THE INCREASING GRADIENT...EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ON MONDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE QUICKER THROUGH THE LAKES REGION...NOW PASSING THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. DEW POINTS INCREASE TO THE LOWER 50S AHEAD OF IT WITH SURFACE AND 925 MB LI/S DROPPING TO NEAR +1. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER... AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED EXCEPT AT THE SURFACE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 30 PCT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...COLD AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE REGION. MODELS ALL AGREE THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROF FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH STRONG DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHER MODELS...THE WRFHEMI...UK...ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL INDICATE A MUCH WEAKER WAVE AND IN SOME CASES NO REAL SURFACE DEVELOPMENT AT ALL. GIVEN THIS WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID AND LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO THE CONSENSUS IS NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS...ESPECIALLY AT 850 MBS WHICH WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT A LITTLE MORE TEMPERED THAN THE GFS. STILL WILL HAVE TEMPS CLOSE TO 12Z MEX...BECAUSE THE AIR IS COLD AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AROUND TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...HIGH WIND WATCH...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055- MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075- MIZ076-MIZ082-MIZ083...NOON SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY. LAKE HURON...STORM WARNING...NORTH HALFSTORM WARNING...LHZ421... NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON-SOUTH HALF- SOUTH HALF...NOON SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY. GALE WARNING...LHZ422...NOON SATURDAY TO 1 PM SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...LCZ423- LCZ460...NOON SATURDAY TO 1 PM SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ460 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...LEZ444...NOON SATURDAY TO 1 PM SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM....RBP AVIATION.....GSS YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE). mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 358 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ...A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION... A 996MB SURFACE LOW WAS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 19Z AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ABOUT 1MB/HR. PRESSURE FALLS WERE APPROACHING 5-6MBS/3HRS ACROSS CENTRAL-EASTERN KENTUCKY AS 150KT 300MB JET WAS DIVING INTO THE DAKOTAS. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FAVORS A MORE WESTERN TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW WITH THE UKMET/WRF-HEMI AND SHORT RANGE RUC ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. WITH THAT SAID...RAPID DEEPENING SHOULD COMMENCE TONIGHT WITH THE TRACK BETWEEN CLE/BUF OVERNIGHT THEN INTO LOWER ONTARIO/QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE RAIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT SOUTH OF M59 AND EAST OF I75 OVERNIGHT. WITH THE SURGE OF WARMER AIR AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE AS WELL FOR MOST OF THE CWA. THE UKMET LOOKS GOOD WITH CURRENT SURFACE LOW TRACK/INTENSITY AND IT REMAINS THE DEEPEST AT 970MB SATURDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS LOW BOTTOM OUT ANOTHER COUPLE OF MILLIBARS. THE HIGH WIND WATCH ISSUED EARLIER LOOKS GOOD AS BUFKIT PROFILES FROM THE NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD 5000 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE 60KTS RESIDES. FURTHERMORE...SINKING MOTIONS SEEN IN THE CROSS SECTIONS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE TO FURTHER ASSIST WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM. EVENING/OVERNIGHT TEAM WILL HAVE ONE MORE LOOK AND CAN GO AHEAD WITH EITHER AN ADVISORY OR WARNING. LOW WRAPS UP TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH COLD ADVECTION DIVING INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD -6C. HARD TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL OCCUR BUT WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES HANGING OUT AROUND 1305-1310DM...AND WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...HARD PRESSED TO GET MUCH ACCUMULATIONS BUT WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE WE ARE ABLE TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SUNSET. && .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE BIG EASTERN LAKES STORM...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FOR SUNDAY. 850 TEMPS START TO WARM DURING THE DAY TOO...SO WHATEVER LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO THE CLOUDS THERE IS TO START THE DAY WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT SUNDAY. THAT WILL GIVE MOST OF THE CWA MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE COMES THE POTENTIAL OF INCREASING THE MIXING HEIGHTS AND BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...POTENTIALLY STILL IN ADVISORY LEVEL OF 45 MPH OR GREATER...THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS NAM HOLDS ON TO 925 MB WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. GRADIENT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL STILL PLAGUE LAKE HURON AND EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY WITH FREQUENT GUST REACHING 48 KTS...AND AGAIN THE NAM HAS 45 TO 50 KTS AT 925 MB OVER THE LAKE THROUGH AROUND 18Z. WILL GO TOWARD THE WARMER MAV/MET GUIDANCE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND 850 WARMING THAT TAKES PLACE ON SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT WARMING CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH 850 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +12C ON SW 850 MB WINDS OF 40 KTS. AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH TEMPS ABOVE 60 AND ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN THE 12Z MEX NUMBERS. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND INCREASED MIXING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH THE INCREASING GRADIENT...EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ON MONDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE QUICKER THROUGH THE LAKES REGION...NOW PASSING THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. DEW POINTS INCREASE TO THE LOWER 50S AHEAD OF IT WITH SURFACE AND 925 MB LI/S DROPPING TO NEAR +1. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT AND THUNDER MENTION...AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED EXCEPT AT THE SURFACE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 30 PCT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...COLD AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE REGION. MODELS ALL AGREE THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROF FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH STRONG DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHER MODELS...THE WRFHEMI...UK...ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL INDICATE A MUCH WEAKER WAVE AND IN SOME CASES NO REAL SURFACE DEVELOPMENT AT ALL. GIVEN THIS WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID AND LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO THE CONSENSUS IS NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS...ESPECIALLY AT 850 MBS WHICH WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT A LITTLE MORE TEMPERED THAN THE GFS. STILL WILL HAVE TEMPS CLOSE TO 12Z MEX...BECAUSE THE AIR IS COLD AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AROUND TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...HIGH WIND WATCH...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055- MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075- MIZ076-MIZ082-MIZ083...NOON SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY. LAKE HURON...STORM WARNING...NORTH HALFSTORM WARNING...LHZ421... NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON-SOUTH HALF- SOUTH HALF...NOON SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY. GALE WARNING...LHZ422...NOON SATURDAY TO 1 PM SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...LCZ423- LCZ460...NOON SATURDAY TO 1 PM SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ460 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...LEZ444...NOON SATURDAY TO 1 PM SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM....RBP YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE). mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1120 AM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .UPDATE... MAIN FCST ISSUE IS TIMING ONSET OF -SHRA OVER THE W LATE THIS AFTN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE OVER SRN MANITOBA BEGINNING TO DIG MORE SHARPLY TO THE SE NOW. MEANWHILE... VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID CLOUDS CONTINUING TO EXPAND ON THE LEADING EDGE OF VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER FORCING OVER NE MN PER LATEST RUC. THIS WILL BE THE GENERATION REGION FOR -SHRA WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. KDLH RADAR DOES SHOW A BAND OF RETURNS WITHIN CLOUD DECK NOW...BUT OBS HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PCPN REACHING THE GROUND. 12Z KINL SOUNDING REVEALS THE REASON AS THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AT THE LOW-MID LEVELS. GOING FCST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK FOR THE AFTN. HEALTHY DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI BY LATE AFTN...BUT EXPECT DRY AIR TO RESULT IN -SHRA LAGGING A BIT BEHIND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF FORCING. PCPN MAY IN FACT HOLD OFF UNTIL 00Z...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY DUE TO STRENGTH OF FORCING TO KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR THE END OF THE AFTN OVER THE FAR W. && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV RDG STRETCHING FM THE UPR GRT LKS TOWARD JAMES BAY TO THE NE OF POTENT SRN BRANCH SHRTWV OVER THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...HI PRES RDG EXTENDING FM QUEBEC INTO THE UPR LKS AND ACCOMPANYING LO/MID DRY AIR DEPICTED ON 00Z GRB/APX RAOBS/LOCAL TAMDAR SDNGS BRINGING A TRANQUIL NGT TO THE FA. QUITE A BIT OF HI CLD EVIDENT HOWEVER IN ADVANCE OF SHEARD SHRTWV RUNNING INTO THE RDG...WITH MSTR SHOWN ABV H6 ON 00Z GRB SDNG. OTRW...WARM FNT/MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH SRN BRANCH SYS WELL TO THE S AND ON TRACK TO MISS THE UPR GRT LKS. MUCH STRONGER W-E FLOW NOTED ACRS SW CAN TO THE N OF UPR RDG ALG THE W COAST. H3 WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO 150KT NOTED ACRS CNTRL ALBERTA ASSOCIATED WITH STRG SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. VEIL OF HI CLD IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS IS MOVING TOWARD NW MN AT 04Z...BUT LIMITED MSTR IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHRTWV PRESENT IN THE NRN PLAINS...WHERE 00Z PWAT AT BIS/GGW ONLY 0.25 INCH/0.35 INCH RESPECTIVELY. A BIT MORE MSTR PRESENT FARTHER N...PWAT 0.52 INCH AT YQD. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY WL BE TEMPS...THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO IMPACTS/ TIMING/PCPN TYPE ACCOMPANYING SHRTWV NOW IN ALBERTA. MOST OF TDAY SHOULD BE ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH HI PRES RDG LINGERING ACRS THE UPR GRT LKS. ALTHOUGH MID/HI CLD PRESENT NOW WL THIN TDAY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SHEARED SHRTWV...EXPECT MID/HI CLD TO THICKEN AGAIN LATER THIS AFTN OVER THE W AS VIGOROUS DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC AHD OF ALBERTA SHRTWV/IN LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX ARRIVES. THIS SHRTWV FCST TO REACH NE MN AT 00Z SAT...WITH ACCOMPANYING COLD FNT APRHG THE WRN ZNS. MAINTAINED GOING LO CHC POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTN OVER THE FAR W. OTRW...MIXING TO H875 AS OBSVD ON THU AT INL ON GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS INTO THE LO 50S. FOR TNGT...GFS/UKMET AGGRESSIVELY LOWER HGTS UP TO 200M BTWN 00Z AND 12Z SAT OVER THE UPR/CNTRL GRT LKS AS SHRTWV CUTS OFF H5 CENTER SOMEWHERE OVER CNTRL LK MI. DESPITE DEARTH OF ANTECEDENT MSTR... THESE MODELS SHOW HIER RH/PCPN BLOSSOMING ACRS THE FA...ESPECIALLY THE E AND CNTRL WHERE SHARPER QVECTOR CNVGC FCST THRU 12Z SAT TO THE E OF DEEPENING H5 TROF AXIS. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF DYNAMICS... WL BUMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL IN THESE LOCATIONS AND GO HI LIKELY OVER THE W. OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT PCPN TO TREND TOWARD WEAK LES LATE AS H85 TEMPS ARND -7C (VS LK TEMP ARND 8C) FOLLOW THE DEEPENING UPR LO INTO WRN LK SUP. GFS FCST SDNGS FOR IWD SHOW FAIRLY SHARP INVRN AT H85...SO SN GROWTH MICROPHYSICS WL BE UNFVRBL WITH LOWEST TEMP -7C WITHIN MIXED LYR. AS FOR PCPN TYPE...EXPECT SN TO MIX WITH RA W-E EXCEPT OVER ALL BUT THE E (AND NRSHORE AREAS FARTHER W) SINCE GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW DEPTH OF ABV FRZG LYR SHRINKING UNDER 1K FT WHILE DEEPER MSTR/SHARP DYNAMICS STILL PRESENT. HOWEVER...LLVL AIR BEHIND SHRTWV IS NOT THAT COLD (H85 TEMP IN NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA ONLY -1C)...SO EXPECT JUST A SLUSHY INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION OVER THE INTERIOR HIER TERRAIN. DEEPENING UPR LO/EXPLOSIVELY DEEPENING SFC LO TO THE E FCST TO MOVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY E ON SAT. GFS/UKMET SHOW SFC LO DEEPENING TO ARND 972MB OVER SE CAN BY 00Z SUN...AND UKMET FCSTS 20MB PRES GRADIENT ACRS LK SUP...SO AT LEAST A HI GALE WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E 2/3 CLOSER TO DEEPENING LO. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A STORM WRNG IF TRENDS CONTINUE AS GFS SHOWS 50KT H85-925 WINDS OVER THE ECNTRL FA IN STRG CYC NNW FLOW BEHIND DEEPENING SFC LO. EVALUTATION OF HI WIND CHECKLIST HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR HI WIND ADVY WITH 45 KT WINDS WITHIN 1K FT AGL. AS FOR WX...EXPECT BACK EDGE OF STEADY PCPN TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY E AS WELL...WITH SHARP H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC CLEARING ERY ONLY LATE IN THE DAY. WL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE E THRU THE DAY WITH RA/SN LINE MOVING GRDLY EWD. GFS FCST SDNGS OVER THE W REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SGNFT LES...WITH LOWEST TEMP WITHIN MIXED MOIST LYR ARND -8C BLO INVRN ARND H85 STILL POOR FOR SN GROWTH MICROPHYSICS. AS LOW PRES FCST TO EASE GRDLY E SAT NGT AND INCOMING AIRMASS REMAINS NOT COLD ENUF FOR SGNFT LES...DIMINISHED POPS W-E THRU THE NGT. BUMPED UP FCST LO TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS THE E WITH STRG NNW WIND ACRS WARM LK WATERS. TENDED TO DIMINISH LES CHCS A BIT FASTER SUN/SUN EVNG THAN PREVIOUS FCST AS BOTH GFS/UKMET SHOW SFC RDG AXIS/DRIER AIR MOVING IN SOONER. BUMPED UP FCST TEMPS A BIT ON SUN WITH PROSPECT OF AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH/ENVIRONMENT CAN. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GALE WARNING E 2/3RDS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. && $$ ROLFSON (UPDATE) KC (PREV DISCUSSION) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1146 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .DISCUSSION...AM RUNNING BEHIND HERE BUT HAVE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FIRST PERTAINS TO THE LAKE WIND ADV. HAVE UPGRADED A LARGE AREA MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRACE TO A WIND ADV. LOOKING AT SHV SNDG AND NEW RUC/GFS WE SHOULD EASILY APPROACH WIND ADV CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF. THIS IS ESPECIALLY SO IN AREAS WHERE THE OPEN LAND OR BODIES OF WATER ARE ORIENTED TO THE WIND THIS AFTERNOON(NW TO SE) AND CAN ALLOW A FUNNELING EFFECT. STRONG CAA ADV AT H7 AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT H85 SHOULD EASILY ALLOW THE WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TO MIX DOWN. H925 WINDS ARE AROUND 30 KTS AND MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC FIELDS ALSO AGREE WITH THIS AS THE 295K SFC WILL RUN INTO THE GROUND AND APPEARS TO HAVE 30 TO 35 KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST GUSTS TO ALMOST 40 MPH IN PLACES LIKE GLH...TVR WHERE THE RIVER AND FLAT LAND ARE SITUATED PERFECTLY. THIS IS ALSO THE CASE AROUND GRENADA LAKE...PELAHATCHIE BAY...AND COLUMBUS LAKE. ALSO TAKING OUT ALL BUT SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS EVERYTHING HAS BEEN PRETTY PROGRESSIVE. WILL ADD AREAS TO PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR LATE AFTERNOON IN THE NW AS THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND STRONG CAA BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NW BRINGING IN A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS. HAVE ALSO UPDATED HIGHS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI WHILE NWRN ZONES HAVE LIKELY ALREADY HIT THEIR HIGH FOR THE THE DAY OR ARE PRETTY CLOSE. WIND ADV ALREADY OUT...ZONES AND GRIDS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. && .AVIATION...MAIN PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM COULD BE WINDS BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY LLW PROBLEMS. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST ACROSS THE N AND CNTRL MS. SITES MEI AND HBG WILL LIKELY BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE REAL GUSTY WINDS GET IN. AS FOR A LITTLE LATER LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BE A PROBLEM FIRST AFFECTING GLH AND GWO AND THEN PROGRESSING SEWRD. ONLY EXPECTING CEILING TO DROP TO MVFR CATEGORY AROUND 2-3K FT. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME -DZ HELPING TO DROP VISBIES DOWN INTO MVFR THIS EVENING AS WELL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 71 47 68 42 / 9 12 0 0 MERIDIAN 74 45 68 40 / 25 20 0 0 VICKSBURG 71 47 70 43 / 4 11 0 0 HATTIESBURG 74 48 69 44 / 32 13 1 0 NATCHEZ 72 48 70 47 / 7 8 1 0 GREENVILLE 68 47 68 43 / 4 14 0 0 GREENWOOD 69 47 69 43 / 4 22 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ039-MSZ045- MSZ046-MSZ050-MSZ051-MSZ052-MSZ054-MSZ055-MSZ056-MSZ057- MSZ058-MSZ061-MSZ062-MSZ063-MSZ064-MSZ065-MSZ066-MSZ072- MSZ073-MSZ074. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-MSZ019- MSZ025-MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ030-MSZ031-MSZ032- MSZ033-MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ038-MSZ040-MSZ041- MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ047-MSZ048-MSZ049-MSZ053-MSZ059- MSZ060. LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007-LAZ008- LAZ009-LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026. AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-ARZ075. && $$ CAB ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 253 PM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .DISCUSSION... RAIN SHUTTING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING IN DOWNTOWN ST. LOUIS ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE COLD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S AND A SUSTAINED NORTH WIND AROUND 20 MPH...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 35 MPH...WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE MIDDLE 30S. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP FOR THIS WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 60S ON SATURDAY AND 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED LOOK TO FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOW 50S FOR HIGHS AND 30S FOR LOWS. CVKING && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS... BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF KCOU AS THE MID/UPR SYSTEM CONTS TO PROGRESS EWD. RUC/NAM ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RAIN SHOULD END IN THE STL VCNTY AROUND 23Z. A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF IFR CIGS CONTS IN THE WAKE OF THE PCPN...THEN FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS. THUS AFTER THE PCPN ENDS THERE SHOULD BE A 3H OR SO PERIOD OF IFR...IMPROVING TO MVFR...AND THEN EVENTUALLY CLEARING THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS EWD INTO THE OH VLY. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING AS HEATING AND VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES. GLASS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ST LOUIS 40 62 44 71 / 10 10 10 10 QUINCY 36 60 41 68 / 10 10 10 10 COLUMBIA 37 63 43 71 / 10 10 10 10 JEFFERSON CITY 38 62 43 72 / 10 10 10 10 SALEM 41 58 43 66 / 50 10 10 10 FARMINGTON 40 60 41 71 / 50 10 10 10 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1246 PM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .DISCUSSION... MUCH OF LSX CWA IS BTWN PCPN SHIELDS ASSOC WITH STG STORM SYSTEM LOCATED OVR OK ERY TDA. WRM CONVEYOR BELT PCPN STREAMING FROM NE AR INTO S IL IS JUST CLIPPING OUR FAR SE COUNTIES...WHILE PCPN WITH COLD CONVEYOR BELT IS WRAPPING FROM SW MO INTO NE KS. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GD AGREEMENT IN THEIR HNDLG OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THEY DEPICT CNTR OF UPR LO DRIFTING INTO NE AR DURG THE AFTN. AS UPR SYS DRIFTS EWD...PCPN SHIELD WITH COLD CONVEYOR BELT/DEFORMATION ZN WL OVRSPRD/REDVLP OVR S SECTIONS OF CWA AND SHUD BLANKET MOST AREAS ALG AND S OF I-70 BY LT MRNG. THE RAIN SHIELD SHUD THEN GRDLY PULL EWD DURG AFTN AND ERY EVE WITH UPR SYS...EXITING KSTL AREA ARND 00Z AND OUR FAR SE COUNTIES DURG THE EVE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEPICT GD FORCING IN THE DEF ZN...WITH THE GFS SPCLY BULLISH ON THE UVV. THRF...HV MENTIONED HVY RAIN OVR S AREA FOR TDA. SCTD CNVTN IS OCRG ERY TDA THRUOUT WRM SECTOR OF STORM AND THIS THRT SHUD CONT THRU MIDDAY. HV DECIDED TO ALSO CONT MENTION OF THUNDER OVR S AREAS THIS AFTN DUE TO STG FORCING IN THE DEF ZN AND SNDGS INDICATING SM THRT OF SLANTWISE CNVTN. NORTHERN EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD SMWHAT DFCLT TO PIN DOWN. HV ATTEMPTED TO DEPICT A SHARP N EDGE TO THE RAINFALL...WITH POPS NR 50% ALG A MOBERLY-KUIN LN...DROPPING TO ARND 30% IN KNOX COUNTY...THE FAR NW COUNTY OF CWA. MOST AREAS WL SEE THE MAX TEMP FOR THE DAY AT 13Z...SINCE INCRG N WNDS SHUD PREVENT ANY WRMUP IN THE RAINCOOLED AMS. EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR NW COUNTIES...WHERE LACK OF PCPN MAY ALLOW A SMALL CLIMB IN TEMPS DURG AFTN. DRY WX IS EXPECTED IN THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME AS RDG BUILDS BACK INTO CNTRL U.S. AMS BHND TDAS STORM SYSTEM ISN'T ALL THAT COLD...SO HV UPPED MAX TEMPS A BIT FOR SAT. SUN SHUD EVEN BE AN WRMR DAY. WITH MDLS INDICATING LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND A STG W COMPONENT TO LO LVL FLO EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO JUMP ABT 10 DEGREES FROM SAT READINGS...INTO THE M60S TO LWR 70S. MADE A CPL MINOR TWEEKS IN THE MON NGT/TUE TIME FRAME TO FINE TUNE PASSAGE OF NXT COLD FRONT. NO OTHER CHGS TO MEDIUM RANGE. TRUETT && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS... BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF KCOU AS THE MID/UPR SYSTEM CONTS TO PROGRESS EWD. RUC/NAM ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RAIN SHOULD END IN THE STL VCNTY AROUND 23Z. A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF IFR CIGS CONTS IN THE WAKE OF THE PCPN...THEN FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS. THUS AFTER THE PCPN ENDS THERE SHOULD BE A 3H OR SO PERIOD OF IFR...IMPROVING TO MVFR...AND THEN EVENTUALLY CLEARING THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS EWD INTO THE OH VLY. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING AS HEATING AND VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES. GLASS && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1044 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .SHORT TERM /OVERNIGHT/... SFC LO CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL KY...WITH PCPN POISED TO MOVE BACK ACRS FCST AREA WITH MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS OVER NEXT SIX HOURS. PCPN HAS FILLED BACK IN SOMEWHAT ACRS CNTRL AND ERN INDIANA...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS DEFORMATION PROGGED TO STRNGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACRS REGION THRU 10Z. SFC LO SHOULD TRACK ACRS NE KY AND INTO SE OHIO OVERNIGHT. ANY THUNDER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NEAR OR SOUTH OF LOW TRACK...AND HAVE THUS PULLED BACK MENTION OF THUNDER TO ENCOMPASS JUST FAR SE FCST AREA THRU ABOUT 06Z. TOYED WITH PULLING FLOOD WATCH AS PCPN OVERNIGHT LOOKS MARGINAL TO INDUCE ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO SRN 1/2 FCST AREA CLOSER TO SFC LO TRACK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OUT OF AREA OF PCPN ACRS SRN INDIANA AND WRN KY HAVE BEEN GENERALLY QUARTER TO HALF INCH. WILL GO AHEAD AND LET FFA RIDE WITH THIS BATCH OF PCPN LIKELY TO MOVE ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POP FCST OVERNIGHT AND ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEWPTS. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FCST UNCHANGED. ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. RYAN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006/ AVIATION /00Z-24Z/... LARGE AREA OF STEADY TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NE ACRS NRN FCST AREA. RAIN HAS BECOME LIGHTER ACRS SRN OH WITH BACK EDGE OF PCPN PASSING THRU CVG METRO. APPEARS THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SEE SCT -RA AND OR DZ FOR KCVG AND KLUK WITH RAIN CONTINUING FURTHER NORTH. DRY SLOT ACRS CNTRL KY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED AS DEEPENING SFC LO OVER WESTERN KY APPCHS TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. NORTH OF THE SFC LO...MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS WILL SWING EAST INTO FCST AREA AND STRENGTHEN. CURRENTLY SEEING MODERATE RAIN ACRS NRN/CNTRL INDIANA IN ASSOC WITH DEFORMATION. HAVE USED CURRENT RUC SOLN TO TRY AND TIME IN HEAVIER PCPN ASSOCD WITH DEFORMATION INTO ALL TAF SITES...WITH KCVG/KLUK AND KDAY BEING AFFECTED AROUND MIDNIGHT AND EASTERN TAF SITES BEING AFFECTED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD AFFECT EACH OF THE TAF SITES FOR ABOUT A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD BEFORE SWINGING EAST AS SFC LO RAPIDLY MOVES INTO ERN OHIO. HAVE MAINTAINED IFR/LIFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 2-3SM RANGE. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE IN WAKE OF DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN ERLY SAT MRNG...CLIMBING INTO 1000-2000FT RANGE BY DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SFC LO PASSES TO SOUTHEAST OF ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS ABV 10KTS BY 06Z WITH GUSTS BTWN 20-25KT. WNW WINDS SHOULD THEN INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FOR SAT AS SFC LO CONTINUES TO BOMB OUT TO NORTHEAST OF REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG 35-40KT WINDS AT ONLY ABOUT 1000FT AGL WITH WINDS OVER 50KTS AT 4KFT. WITH BNDRY LYR MIXING DVLPG SAT MRNG...APPEARS LWR LVLS OF ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE VERY EFFICIENT IN PULLING THESE STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC...ESPECIALLY AT NRN TAF SITES IN DAYTON AND COLUMBUS METROS. HAVE INCREASED SUSTAINEDS INTO 25-30KT RANGE BY SAT AFTN WITH GUSTS ABV 35KTS. FOR KCMH/KLCK AND KDAY...COULD SEE WIND GUSTS APPCH 45KTS DURING AFTN HOURS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD -SHRA AT KCMH AND KLCK INTO SAT AFTN IN CYCLONIC FLO ON BACK SIDE OF SFC LO. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AFT 18Z SAT. RYAN PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... UPDATED ZONES AS DRY SLOT IS WORKING INTO THE SOUTH A LITTLE QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. ONLY HAVE LIKELY IN THE SW NOW. KEPT FLOOD WATCH UP AS SFC LOW IS STILL TO THE WEST AND COULD GET HEAVY RAINS IN EITHER THE DEFORMATION ZONE OR WITH CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW. SITES PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SFC LOW NR THE BOOT HEEL OF MO IS FCST TO TRACK NE THRU KY AND ACRS SE OH TONIGHT. 12Z GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK. W AND NW AREAS HAVE RECEIVED .5 TO 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR...WITH THE SE .25 TO .50. H7 DEFORMATION AREA HAS FORMED OVER THE NW AND MODELS INCREASE IT OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...WITH TRACK OF LOW A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY...THE SE 1/2 WILL HAVE THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. GFS IS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAN THE NAM. GFS HAS SFC LI BELOW ZERO IN THE FAR SE. WITH THESE FACTORS EXPECT 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN THRU 12Z SAT...WITH POSSIBLE LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH THE FFG IS HIGHER THAN THESE NUMBERS...HAVE ISSUED A FFA FOR TONIGHT FOR THE FA...BASED ON ABOVE THOUGHTS. LOW PULLS INTO ERN LAKES ON SAT AND DEEPENS. GFS IS THE SLOWEST IN PULLING THE PCPN OUT OF THE FA SAT. LINGERED SOME POPS EARLY IN THE EAST. STRONG CAA COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT THEY SHOULD BE RAIN. NAM AND GFS BRING H8 WINDS OF 50 KTS IN THE FA SAT AFTN. NOT SURE THE N CAN REACH WARNING CRITERIA ON THE WINDS...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. WENT WITH HIGH WIND WATCH THERE. ACROSS THE SOUTH WENT WITH WIND ADVISORY. HIGH BUILDS IN SAT NGT. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY AROUND 00Z. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHEAST SATURDAY NGT. H8 WINDS ARE ONLY 35 KTS ON SUNDAY...SO DONT EXPECT WINDS TO BE AS STRONG FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. SITES LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST. COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WAVY FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOW TO A CRAWL SOUTH OF THE RIVER AS IT BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THUS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE WHICH CAME IN COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT A MODERATING TREND EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH READINGS APPROACHING CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK. COOL READINGS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA. ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-074. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ070>073- 077>082-088. KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ066- 073>075-080. $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 731 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .AVIATION /00Z-24Z/... LARGE AREA OF STEADY TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NE ACRS NRN FCST AREA. RAIN HAS BECOME LIGHTER ACRS SRN OH WITH BACK EDGE OF PCPN PASSING THRU CVG METRO. APPEARS THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SEE SCT -RA AND OR DZ FOR KCVG AND KLUK WITH RAIN CONTINUING FURTHER NORTH. DRY SLOT ACRS CNTRL KY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED AS DEEPENING SFC LO OVER WESTERN KY APPCHS TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. NORTH OF THE SFC LO...MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS WILL SWING EAST INTO FCST AREA AND STRENGTHEN. CURRENTLY SEEING MODERATE RAIN ACRS NRN/CNTRL INDIANA IN ASSOC WITH DEFORMATION. HAVE USED CURRENT RUC SOLN TO TRY AND TIME IN HEAVIER PCPN ASSOCD WITH DEFORMATION INTO ALL TAF SITES...WITH KCVG/KLUK AND KDAY BEING AFFECTED AROUND MIDNIGHT AND EASTERN TAF SITES BEING AFFECTED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD AFFECT EACH OF THE TAF SITES FOR ABOUT A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD BEFORE SWINGING EAST AS SFC LO RAPIDLY MOVES INTO ERN OHIO. HAVE MAINTAINED IFR/LIFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 2-3SM RANGE. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE IN WAKE OF DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN ERLY SAT MRNG...CLIMBING INTO 1000-2000FT RANGE BY DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SFC LO PASSES TO SOUTHEAST OF ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS ABV 10KTS BY 06Z WITH GUSTS BTWN 20-25KT. WNW WINDS SHOULD THEN INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FOR SAT AS SFC LO CONTINUES TO BOMB OUT TO NORTHEAST OF REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG 35-40KT WINDS AT ONLY ABOUT 1000FT AGL WITH WINDS OVER 50KTS AT 4KFT. WITH BNDRY LYR MIXING DVLPG SAT MRNG...APPEARS LWR LVLS OF ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE VERY EFFICIENT IN PULLING THESE STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC...ESPECIALLY AT NRN TAF SITES IN DAYTON AND COLUMBUS METROS. HAVE INCREASED SUSTAINEDS INTO 25-30KT RANGE BY SAT AFTN WITH GUSTS ABV 35KTS. FOR KCMH/KLCK AND KDAY...COULD SEE WIND GUSTS APPCH 45KTS DURING AFTN HOURS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD -SHRA AT KCMH AND KLCK INTO SAT AFTN IN CYCLONIC FLO ON BACK SIDE OF SFC LO. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AFT 18Z SAT. RYAN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... UPDATED ZONES AS DRY SLOT IS WORKING INTO THE SOUTH A LITTLE QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. ONLY HAVE LIKELY IN THE SW NOW. KEPT FLOOD WATCH UP AS SFC LOW IS STILL TO THE WEST AND COULD GET HEAVY RAINS IN EITHER THE DEFORMATION ZONE OR WITH CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW. SITES PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SFC LOW NR THE BOOT HEEL OF MO IS FCST TO TRACK NE THRU KY AND ACRS SE OH TONIGHT. 12Z GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK. W AND NW AREAS HAVE RECEIVED .5 TO 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR...WITH THE SE .25 TO .50. H7 DEFORMATION AREA HAS FORMED OVER THE NW AND MODELS INCREASE IT OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...WITH TRACK OF LOW A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY...THE SE 1/2 WILL HAVE THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. GFS IS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAN THE NAM. GFS HAS SFC LI BELOW ZERO IN THE FAR SE. WITH THESE FACTORS EXPECT 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN THRU 12Z SAT...WITH POSSIBLE LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH THE FFG IS HIGHER THAN THESE NUMBERS...HAVE ISSUED A FFA FOR TONIGHT FOR THE FA...BASED ON ABOVE THOUGHTS. LOW PULLS INTO ERN LAKES ON SAT AND DEEPENS. GFS IS THE SLOWEST IN PULLING THE PCPN OUT OF THE FA SAT. LINGERED SOME POPS EARLY IN THE EAST. STRONG CAA COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT THEY SHOULD BE RAIN. NAM AND GFS BRING H8 WINDS OF 50 KTS IN THE FA SAT AFTN. NOT SURE THE N CAN REACH WARNING CRITERIA ON THE WINDS...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. WENT WITH HIGH WIND WATCH THERE. ACROSS THE SOUTH WENT WITH WIND ADVISORY. HIGH BUILDS IN SAT NGT. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY AROUND 00Z. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHEAST SATURDAY NGT. H8 WINDS ARE ONLY 35 KTS ON SUNDAY...SO DONT EXPECT WINDS TO BE AS STRONG FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. SITES LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST. COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WAVY FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOW TO A CRAWL SOUTH OF THE RIVER AS IT BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THUS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE WHICH CAME IN COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT A MODERATING TREND EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH READINGS APPROACHING CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK. COOL READINGS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA. ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-074. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ070>073- 077>082-088. KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ066- 073>075-080. $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .UPDATE... WILL GO WITH ANOTHER UPDATE TO EXTEND WIND ADVISORY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AND EXPAND IT INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PROFILERS STILL SHOW 40 TO 50 KNOTS JUST OFF THE SFC AND AS CLEARING LINE MOVES EAST ALLOWING SOME DEEPER MIXING STILL CHANCE TO SEE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS EXCEED 30 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. 30 ------------------------------- 1015 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .UPDATE... STRONG UPPER LOW CONT TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS MORNING TAKING PRECIP ALONG WITH IT. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AS CLEARING LINE CONT TO MAKE HEADWAY TO THE EAST. IN CLEAR AREA OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WE HAVE BEGUN TO SEE MORE 40 MPH GUSTS AS WE MIX INTO HIGHER WIND SPEEDS OFF THE SFC. WILL CONT WITH WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS AT THIS POINT. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY. 30 ------------------------------------- 747 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006 UPPER LOW IS PROGRESSING OUT OF THE AREA QUITE RAPIDLY WITH ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF LIGHT RAIN DIMINISHING OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AT THIS RATE...RAIN SHOULD END ACROSS THE OUN AREA IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS WITH CLEARING THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THEREFORE FORECAST POPS TODAY HAVE BEEN DECREASED ACROSS THESE AREAS AND END SOONER. CONSISTENCY ALSO ARGUES FOR A QUICKER REDUCTION IN OVERCAST SKIES. WIND ADVISORY REMAIN INTACT AT THIS TIME WITH THE LATEST RUC SUPPORTING DECREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. JAMES ------------------------- 300 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .DISCUSSION... THE MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN PART AND PART OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-DAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES QUICKLY EAST INTO ARKANSAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION. ONCE THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST, WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE FROM THE WEST AND MUCH LIGHTER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONT BRINGING A DRY CENTRAL ROCKIES AIRMASS. A SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH FROM KANSAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN RATHER LOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 43 74 45 / 20 0 0 0 HOBART OK 66 42 75 44 / 10 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 68 46 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 GAGE OK 65 36 74 39 / 10 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 60 41 72 44 / 50 0 0 0 DURANT OK 63 47 75 50 / 10 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-OKZ005- OKZ006-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017- OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037- OKZ038-OKZ044. TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-TXZ084- TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090. && $$ 99/99 ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1015 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .UPDATE... STRONG UPPER LOW CONT TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS MORNING TAKING PRECIP ALONG WITH IT. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AS CLEARING LINE CONT TO MAKE HEADWAY TO THE EAST. IN CLEAR AREA OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WE HAVE BEGUN TO SEE MORE 40 MPH GUSTS AS WE MIX INTO HIGHER WIND SPEEDS OFF THE SFC. WILL CONT WITH WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS AT THIS POINT. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY. 30 ------------------------------------- 747 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006 UPPER LOW IS PROGRESSING OUT OF THE AREA QUITE RAPIDLY WITH ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF LIGHT RAIN DIMINISHING OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AT THIS RATE...RAIN SHOULD END ACROSS THE OUN AREA IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS WITH CLEARING THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THEREFORE FORECAST POPS TODAY HAVE BEEN DECREASED ACROSS THESE AREAS AND END SOONER. CONSISTENCY ALSO ARGUES FOR A QUICKER REDUCTION IN OVERCAST SKIES. WIND ADVISORY REMAIN INTACT AT THIS TIME WITH THE LATEST RUC SUPPORTING DECREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. JAMES ------------------------- 300 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .DISCUSSION... THE MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN PART AND PART OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-DAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES QUICKLY EAST INTO ARKANSAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION. ONCE THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST, WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE FROM THE WEST AND MUCH LIGHTER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONT BRINGING A DRY CENTRAL ROCKIES AIRMASS. A SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH FROM KANSAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN RATHER LOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 43 74 45 / 20 0 0 0 HOBART OK 66 42 75 44 / 10 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 68 46 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 GAGE OK 65 36 74 39 / 10 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 60 41 72 44 / 50 0 0 0 DURANT OK 63 47 75 50 / 10 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-OKZ005- OKZ006-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017- OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037- OKZ038-OKZ044. TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-TXZ084- TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090. && $$ 99/99 ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 747 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006 UPPER LOW IS PROGRESSING OUT OF THE AREA QUITE RAPIDLY WITH ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF LIGHT RAIN DIMINISHING OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AT THIS RATE...RAIN SHOULD END ACROSS THE OUN AREA IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS WITH CLEARING THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THEREFORE FORECAST POPS TODAY HAVE BEEN DECREASED ACROSS THESE AREAS AND END SOONER. CONSISTENCY ALSO ARGUES FOR A QUICKER REDUCTION IN OVERCAST SKIES. WIND ADVISORY REMAIN INTACT AT THIS TIME WITH THE LATEST RUC SUPPORTING DECREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. JAMES ------------------------- 300 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .DISCUSSION... THE MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN PART AND PART OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-DAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES QUICKLY EAST INTO ARKANSAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION. ONCE THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST, WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE FROM THE WEST AND MUCH LIGHTER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONT BRINGING A DRY CENTRAL ROCKIES AIRMASS. A SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH FROM KANSAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN RATHER LOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 43 74 45 / 20 0 0 0 HOBART OK 66 42 75 44 / 10 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 68 46 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 GAGE OK 65 36 74 39 / 10 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 60 41 72 44 / 50 0 0 0 DURANT OK 63 47 75 50 / 10 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-OKZ005- OKZ006-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017- OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037- OKZ038-OKZ044. TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-TXZ084- TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090. && $$ 99/99 ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1219 AM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... WILL UPDATE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE AND TO TIDY UP TEMPERATURE TRENDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 836 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW CENTER IN WRN KY WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA NEAR THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY IS PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT TRENDS WILL BE NEEDED. THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG 850 MB JET IN THE VICINITY WILL STEADILY SHIFT EAST OVER THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. MID LEVEL DRYING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES TO THE WEST ARE ALLOWING BETTER CONVECTION TO FORM THIS HOUR OVER ERN TN AND NRN GA. WILL STILL ALLOW FOR THE DRY SLOT TO REDUCE POPS IN NE GA AND THE UPSTATE OF SC...BUT WILL HAVE TO HOLD ONTO MORE SOLID CHC POPS OVERNIGHT WITH THE RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST. MOST MTN OBSERVING SITES ARE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND...SO ENTERTAINED CANCELLING THE WIND ADVISORY. HOWEVER...BEST 850 MB JET IS NOT SAFELY EAST OF THE MTN CHAIN UNTIL 03Z ON THE LATEST RUC...AND ANY MIXING WITH APPROACHING CONVECTION COULD STILL YIELD STRONG GUSTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PROBABLY SAFEST TO KEEP IT RUNNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT. 18Z MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE A VERY STRONG 700 TO 500 MB JET CORE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY 18Z SATURDAY. WILL EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WATCH WITH THIS ISSUANCE TO PICK UP THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES FROM WRN MCDOWELL TO WRN CALDWELL COUNTY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... THE NPW WAS UPDATED TO CORRECTLY INDICATE A MIDNIGHT EXPIRATION TIME FOR THE NC MTN WIND ADVISORY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE END OF THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST A COLD FRONT ALOFT PUSHING THE PRECIP EAST. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE BACK EDGE WORKING ITS WAY INTO SE TN/NW GA AT 19Z PLACES HAS IT REACHING THE FAR WRN MTNS OF NC AT 22Z...AND MOVING EAST OF THE MTNS AFTER 03Z. WITH THAT TIMING IN MIND...THINK MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...AND CERTAINLY BY SUNRISE OVER THE EASTERN HALF. CATEGORICAL POP WILL BE DRAWN ACCORDINGLY AND TEXT PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TIMING. OTHER ISSUES LINGER FOR THE FIRST PERIOD. SINCE HIGH ELEVATION WIND CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY WHEN THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY RUNS OUT...AND THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STILL BE TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...THINK IT WISE TO EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND LET THE EVENING SHIFT HANDLE IT. A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM REMAINS WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES IN THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR... THOUGH...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AND COULD EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MORE BIG CHANGES SHOULD HAPPEN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FORCING PULLS QUICKLY AWAY. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD BRING AN END TO ALL PRECIP AWAY FROM THE TN BORDER BY DAYBREAK...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS TO HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE REMNANT COOL POOL SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY AS THE STRONG NW FLOW DOWNSLOPE DEVELOPS IN THE MORNING. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WAS ACCEPTED FOR THE HIGH TEMP. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS OVER THE MTNS. THE CORE OF THE BEST WINDS ALOFT SHOULD MOVE OFF TO OUR N...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH POTENTIAL WITH THE COLD ADVECTION...SUBSIDENCE... AND PRESSURE RISES TO ALLOW WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FOR SATURDAY DAYTIME AND EVENING. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DEGREE OF UPSLOPE FLOW MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY SPARSE...SO AT THIS JUNCTURE WOULD EXPECT JUST A VARYING AMOUNT OF LINGERING STRATOCU ACRS WESTERN NC. UPPER VORTEX SPINNING OVER SE CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE NORTHEAST WITH TIME ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE CWFA ON SUNDAY. GRADIENT WILL BE RELAXING AS WELL...RESULTING IN A QUIET WX DAY UNDER A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WITH MAXES NEAR LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. LLVL RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS RETURN FLOW STARTS TO PICK UP OVER THE CWFA. THE SOUTHEAST IS STILL UNDER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT SO ESSENTIALLY...ANOTHER QUIET WX DAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN ABOUT A CATEGORY BOOST IN MAXES FROM SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT LIFT AND MOISTURE OF ANY NOTABLE EXTENT...ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE CWFA THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH GOING DRY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MAXES FOR HALLOWEEN. PCPN CHANCES REMAIN SMALL ON WEDNESDAY AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO OUR WEST...BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. GOING TOKEN SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL SUFFICE. DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM MORE STOUT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS PROGGED TO SWING ACRS THE CWFA WED NITE OR THURSDAY PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND WILL RAISE POPS THIS PERIOD ACCORDINGLY. CLEARING AND COOLER WX IS SLATED IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS FOR NEXT FRIDAY. AVIATION... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VIS/ CEILING AT ANY TIME AT ANY SITE. ALL TAF SITES WILL BE MONITORED FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. BY EXTRAPOLATING THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP OVER NRN AL AT 16Z...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL SWEEP EAST BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z. HOWEVER...AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FLOW AT 850 MB VEERS AND THE WEDGE IS DESTROYED FROM THE TOP DOWN. THE DETAILS ON WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR ARE VERY SKETCHY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY AND DRAMATICALLY SOME TIME AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING SATURDAY AT ALL TAF SITES WITH GUSTY W OR NW WINDS. && && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NCZ033-034-048>050-052>055-065-501-503-505 FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HG sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 836 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW CENTER IN WRN KY WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA NEAR THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY IS PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT TRENDS WILL BE NEEDED. THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG 850 MB JET IN THE VICINITY WILL STEADILY SHIFT EAST OVER THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. MID LEVEL DRYING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES TO THE WEST ARE ALLOWING BETTER CONVECTION TO FORM THIS HOUR OVER ERN TN AND NRN GA. WILL STILL ALLOW FOR THE DRY SLOT TO REDUCE POPS IN NE GA AND THE UPSTATE OF SC...BUT WILL HAVE TO HOLD ONTO MORE SOLID CHC POPS OVERNIGHT WITH THE RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST. MOST MTN OBSERVING SITES ARE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND...SO ENTERTAINED CANCELLING THE WIND ADVISORY. HOWEVER...BEST 850 MB JET IS NOT SAFELY EAST OF THE MTN CHAIN UNTIL 03Z ON THE LATEST RUC...AND ANY MIXING WITH APPROACHING CONVECTION COULD STILL YIELD STRONG GUSTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PROBABLY SAFEST TO KEEP IT RUNNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT. 18Z MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE A VERY STRONG 700 TO 500 MB JET CORE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY 18Z SATURDAY. WILL EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WATCH WITH THIS ISSUANCE TO PICK UP THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES FROM WRN MCDOWELL TO WRN CALDWELL COUNTY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... THE NPW WAS UPDATED TO CORRECTLY INDICATE A MIDNIGHT EXPIRATION TIME FOR THE NC MTN WIND ADVISORY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE END OF THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST A COLD FRONT ALOFT PUSHING THE PRECIP EAST. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE BACK EDGE WORKING ITS WAY INTO SE TN/NW GA AT 19Z PLACES HAS IT REACHING THE FAR WRN MTNS OF NC AT 22Z...AND MOVING EAST OF THE MTNS AFTER 03Z. WITH THAT TIMING IN MIND...THINK MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...AND CERTAINLY BY SUNRISE OVER THE EASTERN HALF. CATEGORICAL POP WILL BE DRAWN ACCORDINGLY AND TEXT PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TIMING. OTHER ISSUES LINGER FOR THE FIRST PERIOD. SINCE HIGH ELEVATION WIND CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY WHEN THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY RUNS OUT...AND THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STILL BE TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...THINK IT WISE TO EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND LET THE EVENING SHIFT HANDLE IT. A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM REMAINS WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES IN THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR... THOUGH...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AND COULD EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MORE BIG CHANGES SHOULD HAPPEN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FORCING PULLS QUICKLY AWAY. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD BRING AN END TO ALL PRECIP AWAY FROM THE TN BORDER BY DAYBREAK...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS TO HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE REMNANT COOL POOL SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY AS THE STRONG NW FLOW DOWNSLOPE DEVELOPS IN THE MORNING. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WAS ACCEPTED FOR THE HIGH TEMP. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS OVER THE MTNS. THE CORE OF THE BEST WINDS ALOFT SHOULD MOVE OFF TO OUR N...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH POTENTIAL WITH THE COLD ADVECTION...SUBSIDENCE... AND PRESSURE RISES TO ALLOW WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FOR SATURDAY DAYTIME AND EVENING. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DEGREE OF UPSLOPE FLOW MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY SPARSE...SO AT THIS JUNCTURE WOULD EXPECT JUST A VARYING AMOUNT OF LINGERING STRATOCU ACRS WESTERN NC. UPPER VORTEX SPINNING OVER SE CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE NORTHEAST WITH TIME ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE CWFA ON SUNDAY. GRADIENT WILL BE RELAXING AS WELL...RESULTING IN A QUIET WX DAY UNDER A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WITH MAXES NEAR LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. LLVL RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS RETURN FLOW STARTS TO PICK UP OVER THE CWFA. THE SOUTHEAST IS STILL UNDER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT SO ESSENTIALLY...ANOTHER QUIET WX DAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN ABOUT A CATEGORY BOOST IN MAXES FROM SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT LIFT AND MOISTURE OF ANY NOTABLE EXTENT...ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE CWFA THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH GOING DRY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MAXES FOR HALLOWEEN. PCPN CHANCES REMAIN SMALL ON WEDNESDAY AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO OUR WEST...BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. GOING TOKEN SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL SUFFICE. DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM MORE STOUT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS PROGGED TO SWING ACRS THE CWFA WED NITE OR THURSDAY PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND WILL RAISE POPS THIS PERIOD ACCORDINGLY. CLEARING AND COOLER WX IS SLATED IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS FOR NEXT FRIDAY. AVIATION... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VIS/ CEILING AT ANY TIME AT ANY SITE. ALL TAF SITES WILL BE MONITORED FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. BY EXTRAPOLATING THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP OVER NRN AL AT 16Z...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL SWEEP EAST BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z. HOWEVER...AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FLOW AT 850 MB VEERS AND THE WEDGE IS DESTROYED FROM THE TOP DOWN. THE DETAILS ON WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR ARE VERY SKETCHY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY AND DRAMATICALLY SOME TIME AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING SATURDAY AT ALL TAF SITES WITH GUSTY W OR NW WINDS. && && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065 UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. ...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NCZ033-034-048>050-052>055-065-501-503-505 FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HG sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1112 AM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... OUR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL/HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT IS BEGINNING TO UNFOLD THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. PRECIPITATION IS FINALLY STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE INCIPIENT COLD AIR DAMMING REGION ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS/NW PIEDMONT AS INITIAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS MOISTENED. THE SLIGHT DELAY IN PRECIP ONSET ACROSS THE DAMMING REGION ALLOWED SOME TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST...BUT TEMPS SHOULD FALL WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PRECIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S. THE TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE WORDED ACCORDINGLY TO HANDLE THE STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE OTHER CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE AREA WHERE THUNDER IS FORECAST HAS BEEN MADE TO ELIMINATE IT OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE STABILITY IS HIGH. THE LATEST RUC DOES NOT BRING THE WEAK INSTABILITY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN FRINGE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY...SO THE TIMING IS PUSHED BACK. IT IS NOT YET CLEAR HOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL WORK OUT...BUT LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE JUST SICK WITH SHEAR AND HELICITY...SO A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO IS STILL WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES OVER THE AREA S OF INTERSTATE 85. SEE NO REASON TO ALTER THE WIND ADVISORY OVER THE MTNS. AS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...THERE IS LINGERING CONCERN THAT CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST COULD STEAL AWAY SOME OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SINCE THIS IS A KATAFRONT SITUATION AND SOME OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION OVER SRN AL APPEARS TO BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE MS RIVER AT 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS A MOOT POINT SINCE WE DO NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT. IF ANYTHING...IT WOULD MAKE THE DECISION TO NOT ISSUE A WATCH AN EVEN BETTER ONE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY/... A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND AN OPEN GULF WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY A STRONG JET MAX ALOFT AND AN UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL COMPONENT. AT THIS TIME RAINFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES IS EXPECTED...BUT SPREAD OVER SUFFICIENT TIME TO LIMIT RUNOFF. MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TODAY...SHIFTING TO THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES FROM CHARLOTTE TO ELBERTON TONIGHT. ENOUGH SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE TO WARRANT CLOSE INSPECTION OF ANY WELL DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PIEDMONT FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BE QUITE STIFF ALOFT TODAY AND TONIGHT IN A TIGHT GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH WARM ADVECTION AND RISING MOTION SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS FROM REALIZING HIGH WINDS. EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT ANY TEMPERATURE GAIN TODAY...WHILE CLOUDS AND WIND LIMIT COOLING TONIGHT...DESPITE THE ONSET OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE WARMING SATURDAY....AND WITH THE RAIN COOLED AIR MASS SCOURED... SATURDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN TODAY. AS DOWNWARD MOTION AND COLD ADVECTION COMBINE WITH A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT SATURDAY...THE WIND WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FORM THE WEST NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST ONLY HAS A FEW PIXELS OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA VELOCITIES...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWERS SHOULD SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT....CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN TAPERING OFF SATURDAY EVENING. PARTIAL THICKNESS...850 MB TEMPERATURES...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT SNOW WITH THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PRECIPITATION. A PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL LIMIT COOLING...AS THE INVADING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES FROM THE GULF STATES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE EASTERN LW TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WARMING TREND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE FLOW BACKS IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE CTRL/WRN CONUS. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS...THE GFS BRINGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON THU. THIS IS APPROX 18 HOURS LATER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS...SO THERE ARE OBVIOUSLY SOME TIMING CONCERNS. FOR NOW...POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR WED NIGHT AND THU. AVIATION... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH MVFR CIGS FORECAST W TAF SITES TOWARD DAYBREAK...SPREADING E DURING MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VIS TO COME DOWN TO MVFR AS RAIN BECOMES MORE STEADY WITH CEILINGS GOING IFR MID DAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AT 5-10 KTS FROM THE NE AS IN-SITU WEDGE DEVELOPS MID-LATE MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTN-EVE TSTMS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. MODELS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR LATER TODAY AND LLWS MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN LATER TAFS. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOORE sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1108 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .AVIATION... WINDS ARE STAYING MORE NORTHWEST THAN NORTH-NORTHWEST AND WILL SLOW DOWN THE SHIFT TO THE NNW FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. SEEN GUSTS TO 36KTS AT FTW AND NFW SO FAR AND EXPECT MAX GUSTS AROUND 35-40 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT 20-21Z AS BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS FINALLY MOVES THROUGH AND WITH CLEAR SKIES INVERSION WILL ESTABLISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND DROP THE WINDS BELOW 10KT BY 01-02Z. 84 && .UPDATE... CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. ALONG WITH STRONG ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR...THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON. HENCE...WILL ADJUST CLOUD COVER...KEEPING THE NORTHERN PORTION MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO MID AFTERNOON...AND LOWER MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS LOOK GOOD SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CHANGES THERE. 42 && .AVIATION... 643 AM CDT... VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY...WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED PERIODICALLY FOR NONCONVECTIVE GRADIENT WINDS. A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY VEER AS A POTENT UPPER VORT MAX EJECTS TO THE EAST. THUS...EARLIER CROSSWIND PROBLEMS AT N-S ORIENTED RUNWAYS SHOULD NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER DAWN...WITH SPEEDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THE 25G35 KNOT RANGE...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...WITH COLD AIR STRATUS FIGHTING THE EFFECTS OF STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE. WILL INITIALLY CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BROKEN HIGH-END MVFR DECKS AROUND THE METROPLEX...BUT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE BY 18Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER DUSK...BUT WITHOUT TRUE DECOUPLING EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE OVERNIGHT. 65/DD && .DISCUSSION... POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ROLLING ACROSS OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STRONG NW WINDS NOW ENTERING THE CWA. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE WINDS AND JUST HOW STRONG THEY WILL GET. REMOTE SAMPLING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS BY REGIONAL RADARS SUGGEST THAT THE RUC FORECAST OF 50 KT AT 850 MB IS NOT TOO FAR OFF. WINDS HAVE ALREADY GUST TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE CWA. AFTER SUNRISE...SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LAPSE RATES BECOME UNSTABLE AND ALLOW FOR BETTER DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. ALL OF THE MODELS TRY TO BRING SOME WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS INTO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT CURRENT SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE IS WINNING OUT AND CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE AREA NORTH OF I-20 WILL CONTEND WITH SOME CLOUD COVER TODAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS LOWER AND WINDS A LITTLE WEAKER IN THIS AREA. FELT THAT THE MAV/MET MOS WAS TOO LOW WITH FORECAST SPEEDS GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS AND WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE SPEEDS 5-7 KT IN LINE WITH RUC PROGS. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 6 PM AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME MORE STABLE. ASIDE FROM THE WIND TODAY...NO FORECAST CHALLENGES TO SPEAK OF THROUGH MONDAY AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. IN FACT...WEATHER LOOKS VERY NICE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH PLEASANTLY COOL NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOONS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS BELOW 10 MPH. MAV MOS TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE AND HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GUIDANCE. NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE CWA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION REMAINS SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC...SO CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND AS COOLER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NE. ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE COLD AIR INTRUSION NEXT WEEK...AND THEREFORE ONLY BUMPED DOWN THE TEMPS A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DID NOT JUMP ONTO THE MEX MOS BANDWAGON OF HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S JUST YET. TR.92 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 67 50 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 WACO, TX 71 46 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 62 44 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 67 47 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 66 45 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 67 51 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 67 47 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 69 47 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 73 47 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ093-TXZ094- TXZ095-TXZ100-TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ103-TXZ104-TXZ105-TXZ106-TXZ107- TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ120-TXZ121-TXZ122-TXZ123- TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132-TXZ133-TXZ134-TXZ135-TXZ141-TXZ142- TXZ143-TXZ144-TXZ145-TXZ146-TXZ147-TXZ148-TXZ156-TXZ157-TXZ158- TXZ159-TXZ160-TXZ161-TXZ162-TXZ174-TXZ175. && $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 954 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .UPDATE... CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. ALONG WITH STRONG ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR...THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON. HENCE...WILL ADJUST CLOUD COVER...KEEPING THE NORTHERN PORTION MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO MID AFTERNOON...AND LOWER MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS LOOK GOOD SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CHANGES THERE. 42 && .AVIATION... 643 AM CDT... VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY...WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED PERIODICALLY FOR NONCONVECTIVE GRADIENT WINDS. A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY VEER AS A POTENT UPPER VORT MAX EJECTS TO THE EAST. THUS...EARLIER CROSSWIND PROBLEMS AT N-S ORIENTED RUNWAYS SHOULD NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER DAWN...WITH SPEEDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THE 25G35 KNOT RANGE...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...WITH COLD AIR STRATUS FIGHTING THE EFFECTS OF STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE. WILL INITIALLY CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BROKEN HIGH-END MVFR DECKS AROUND THE METROPLEX...BUT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE BY 18Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER DUSK...BUT WITHOUT TRUE DECOUPLING EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE OVERNIGHT. 65/DD && .DISCUSSION... POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ROLLING ACROSS OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STRONG NW WINDS NOW ENTERING THE CWA. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE WINDS AND JUST HOW STRONG THEY WILL GET. REMOTE SAMPLING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS BY REGIONAL RADARS SUGGEST THAT THE RUC FORECAST OF 50 KT AT 850 MB IS NOT TOO FAR OFF. WINDS HAVE ALREADY GUST TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE CWA. AFTER SUNRISE...SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LAPSE RATES BECOME UNSTABLE AND ALLOW FOR BETTER DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. ALL OF THE MODELS TRY TO BRING SOME WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS INTO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT CURRENT SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE IS WINNING OUT AND CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE AREA NORTH OF I-20 WILL CONTEND WITH SOME CLOUD COVER TODAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS LOWER AND WINDS A LITTLE WEAKER IN THIS AREA. FELT THAT THE MAV/MET MOS WAS TOO LOW WITH FORECAST SPEEDS GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS AND WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE SPEEDS 5-7 KT IN LINE WITH RUC PROGS. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 6 PM AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME MORE STABLE. ASIDE FROM THE WIND TODAY...NO FORECAST CHALLENGES TO SPEAK OF THROUGH MONDAY AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. IN FACT...WEATHER LOOKS VERY NICE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH PLEASANTLY COOL NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOONS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS BELOW 10 MPH. MAV MOS TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE AND HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GUIDANCE. NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE CWA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION REMAINS SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC...SO CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND AS COOLER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NE. ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE COLD AIR INTRUSION NEXT WEEK...AND THEREFORE ONLY BUMPED DOWN THE TEMPS A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DID NOT JUMP ONTO THE MEX MOS BANDWAGON OF HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S JUST YET. TR.92 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 67 50 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 WACO, TX 71 46 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 62 44 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 67 47 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 66 45 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 67 51 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 67 47 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 69 47 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 73 47 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ093-TXZ094- TXZ095-TXZ100-TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ103-TXZ104-TXZ105-TXZ106-TXZ107- TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ120-TXZ121-TXZ122-TXZ123- TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132-TXZ133-TXZ134-TXZ135-TXZ141-TXZ142- TXZ143-TXZ144-TXZ145-TXZ146-TXZ147-TXZ148-TXZ156-TXZ157-TXZ158- TXZ159-TXZ160-TXZ161-TXZ162-TXZ174-TXZ175. && $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 643 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .AVIATION... VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY...WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED PERIODICALLY FOR NONCONVECTIVE GRADIENT WINDS. A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY VEER AS A POTENT UPPER VORT MAX EJECTS TO THE EAST. THUS...EARLIER CROSSWIND PROBLEMS AT N-S ORIENTED RUNWAYS SHOULD NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER DAWN...WITH SPEEDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THE 25G35 KNOT RANGE...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...WITH COLD AIR STRATUS FIGHTING THE EFFECTS OF STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE. WILL INITIALLY CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BROKEN HIGH-END MVFR DECKS AROUND THE METROPLEX...BUT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE BY 18Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER DUSK...BUT WITHOUT TRUE DECOUPLING EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE OVERNIGHT. 65/DD && .DISCUSSION... POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ROLLING ACROSS OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STRONG NW WINDS NOW ENTERING THE CWA. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE WINDS AND JUST HOW STRONG THEY WILL GET. REMOTE SAMPLING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS BY REGIONAL RADARS SUGGEST THAT THE RUC FORECAST OF 50 KT AT 850 MB IS NOT TOO FAR OFF. WINDS HAVE ALREADY GUST TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE CWA. AFTER SUNRISE...SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LAPSE RATES BECOME UNSTABLE AND ALLOW FOR BETTER DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. ALL OF THE MODELS TRY TO BRING SOME WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS INTO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT CURRENT SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE IS WINNING OUT AND CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE AREA NORTH OF I-20 WILL CONTEND WITH SOME CLOUD COVER TODAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS LOWER AND WINDS A LITTLE WEAKER IN THIS AREA. FELT THAT THE MAV/MET MOS WAS TOO LOW WITH FORECAST SPEEDS GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS AND WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE SPEEDS 5-7 KT IN LINE WITH RUC PROGS. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 6 PM AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME MORE STABLE. ASIDE FROM THE WIND TODAY...NO FORECAST CHALLENGES TO SPEAK OF THROUGH MONDAY AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. IN FACT...WEATHER LOOKS VERY NICE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH PLEASANTLY COOL NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOONS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS BELOW 10 MPH. MAV MOS TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE AND HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GUIDANCE. NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE CWA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION REMAINS SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC...SO CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND AS COOLER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NE. ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE COLD AIR INTRUSION NEXT WEEK...AND THEREFORE ONLY BUMPED DOWN THE TEMPS A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DID NOT JUMP ONTO THE MEX MOS BANDWAGON OF HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S JUST YET. TR.92 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 67 50 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 WACO, TX 71 46 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 62 44 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 67 47 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 66 45 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 67 51 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 67 47 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 69 47 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 73 47 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ093-TXZ094- TXZ095-TXZ100-TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ103-TXZ104-TXZ105-TXZ106-TXZ107- TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ120-TXZ121-TXZ122-TXZ123- TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132-TXZ133-TXZ134-TXZ135-TXZ141-TXZ142- TXZ143-TXZ144-TXZ145-TXZ146-TXZ147-TXZ148-TXZ156-TXZ157-TXZ158- TXZ159-TXZ160-TXZ161-TXZ162-TXZ174-TXZ175. && $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 944 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .SHORT TERM UPDATE /REST OF TONIGHT/... UPON FURTHER REVIEW HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE VA PENINSULA IN THE WIND ADVISORY. UPDATED PRODUCTS BEING SENT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 913 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006) SHORT TERM UPDATE /REST OF TONIGHT/... RAIN HAS BEEN MAINLY LIGHT SO FAR THIS EVE. MEASURED RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH AT ASOS SITES AND RADAR ESTIMATES UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN A FEW SPOTS. WATCHING SEVERAL HEAVIER BANDS OF PCPN MOVG NE THRU VA PIEDMONT AND EASTERN NC SO RAINFALL RATES SHUD PICK UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS EXPECTED. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TOTAL QPF BUT STILL A SOLID 1-2 INCH RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED. WINDS IN LOCAL VAD PROFILES AND EVE UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS REALLY STARTING TO PICK UP WITH 35-45 KT IN THE LOWEST 5K FT. SFC WINDS ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO THE LOW LVL JET WITH SOME GUSTS UP NEAR 30 MPH NOTED. SEE NO NEED TO CHANGE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED OVRNGT LOWS. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW/WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO 60S MOST PLACES BY DAYBREAK. STRONG WINDS IN THE CHES BAY WILL CREATE MINOR CSTL FLOOD PROBS LATE TNGT AND THRU SATURDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED SO THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA WILL BE ON THE BAY SIDE OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY THRU SAT NIGHT. COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN SENT TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT. UPDATED FCST PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT. WILL REFRESH NPW/SPS AS WELL. ADJUSTMENTS ALREADY MADE TO CWF...MAINLY TO INTRODUCE GALE WARNING IN THE CHES BAY. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 336 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006) SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... RAIN IS QUICKLY SPREADING TO COVER OUR ENTIRE CWA AT THIS HOUR. KAKQ RADAR ESTIMATES REPORT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS HAS FALLEN SO FAR. THIS IS IN ACCORDANCE WITH GUIDANCE...THOUGH I FEEL THE PRE-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS WERE NOT HANDLED AGGRESSIVELY ENOUGH...ESP SURPRISINGLY BY THE RUC. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY POSED JUST S OF THE NC BORDER AND MOVING N/NE ALONG W/ SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODERATE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME LARGE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED. HAVE NOTICED QPF AMOUNTS INCREASING PAST FEW MOD RUNS...AND INDEED SINCE INITIAL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN UNDERDONE (OR NONE AT ALL) HAVE BUMPED OP PRECIP AMOUNTS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH...ESP ALONG A N/S AXIS EXTENDING FROM S/CENTRAL VA TO NE NC. UP TO 2 INCHES OF QPF AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESP ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHERE WARMER AIR IS QUICKLY DISPLACED EARLY SAT MORNING BY A FAST MOVING CD FRT. SOIL IS STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST FROM EVENT(S) PAST...THEREFORE IT WILL BE ABLE TO RECEIVE AND RETAIN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF PRECIP...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN ANY PARTICULARLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OF COURSE PONDING ON THE ROADWAYS. THOUGH THE GFS IS TURNING OUT HIGHER QPFS THIS LAST RUN...DO NOT FEEL STRONGLY ABOUT PUTTING UP A WATCH ATTM PER CONDITIONS AND GUIDANCE. GRAD TIGHTENS ALONG THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SFC...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER EARN SHORE...FAR EARN PTNS OF THE TIDEWATER AREA...AND ALSO CURRITUCK CO IN NC. INTERIOR AREAS CAN EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU EARLY SAT EVENING. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL...THOUGH ISOLATED TS WERE MENTIONED FOR SE SECTION OF CWA AND FAR EARN AREAS BY SAT MORN. THE BOUNDARY LAYER HERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MILDLY UNSTABLE (IF AT ALL) BEFORE THE FRNT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SAT EVENING THE LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE WELL OFF TO THE NE. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BECOME CLEAR AND DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE...MAY HAVE SOME DENSE FOG ISSUES SUN MORNING AND AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT/MON MORN. TEMPS STAY ON THE MILD SIDE AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW. NEXT FROPA PASSAGE COMES THU. NOT MANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED. AVIATION... CIGS AND VIS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THIS EVENING AS WE SEE AN INCREASE IN RA COVERAGE. LOOKING FOR PREDOMINANT CONDS IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDS IN HEAVIER RAIN. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY 12-15Z TOMORROW MORNING...AND CLOUDS WILL ALSO CLEAR ABOUT THE SAME TIME. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN RATHER GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW. MARINE... WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR OFFSHORE LOCATIONS...WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS STARTING IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG FOR AT LEAST 12-24 HRS BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOKING FOR WINDS OFFSHORE TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...WINDS WILL HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AND LOOK TO REMAIN 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID-WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WIND ADVISORY FOR MDZ021>025 FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY. NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ017-102 FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY. VA...WIND ADVISORY FOR VAZ091-094-095-098>100 FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY. MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ630-631-650-652-654 FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY. ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ632-633-656-658 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...CULLEN va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 913 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .SHORT TERM UPDATE /REST OF TONIGHT/... RAIN HAS BEEN MAINLY LIGHT SO FAR THIS EVE. MEASURED RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH AT ASOS SITES AND RADAR ESTIMATES UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN A FEW SPOTS. WATCHING SEVERAL HEAVIER BANDS OF PCPN MOVG NE THRU VA PIEDMONT AND EASTERN NC SO RAINFALL RATES SHUD PICK UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS EXPECTED. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TOTAL QPF BUT STILL A SOLID 1-2 INCH RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED. WINDS IN LOCAL VAD PROFILES AND EVE UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS REALLY STARTING TO PICK UP WITH 35-45 KT IN THE LOWEST 5K FT. SFC WINDS ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO THE LOW LVL JET WITH SOME GUSTS UP NEAR 30 MPH NOTED. SEE NO NEED TO CHANGE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED OVRNGT LOWS. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW/WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO 60S MOST PLACES BY DAYBREAK. STRONG WINDS IN THE CHES BAY WILL CREATE MINOR CSTL FLOOD PROBS LATE TNGT AND THRU SATURDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED SO THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA WILL BE ON THE BAY SIDE OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY THRU SAT NIGHT. COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN SENT TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT. UPDATED FCST PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT. WILL REFRESH NPW/SPS AS WELL. ADJUSTMENTS ALREADY MADE TO CWF...MAINLY TO INTRODUCE GALE WARNING IN THE CHES BAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 336 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006) SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... RAIN IS QUICKLY SPREADING TO COVER OUR ENTIRE CWA AT THIS HOUR. KAKQ RADAR ESTIMATES REPORT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS HAS FALLEN SO FAR. THIS IS IN ACCORDANCE WITH GUIDANCE...THOUGH I FEEL THE PRE-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS WERE NOT HANDLED AGGRESSIVELY ENOUGH...ESP SURPRISINGLY BY THE RUC. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY POSED JUST S OF THE NC BORDER AND MOVING N/NE ALONG W/ SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODERATE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME LARGE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED. HAVE NOTICED QPF AMOUNTS INCREASING PAST FEW MOD RUNS...AND INDEED SINCE INITIAL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN UNDERDONE (OR NONE AT ALL) HAVE BUMPED OP PRECIP AMOUNTS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH...ESP ALONG A N/S AXIS EXTENDING FROM S/CENTRAL VA TO NE NC. UP TO 2 INCHES OF QPF AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESP ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHERE WARMER AIR IS QUICKLY DISPLACED EARLY SAT MORNING BY A FAST MOVING CD FRT. SOIL IS STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST FROM EVENT(S) PAST...THEREFORE IT WILL BE ABLE TO RECEIVE AND RETAIN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF PRECIP...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN ANY PARTICULARLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OF COURSE PONDING ON THE ROADWAYS. THOUGH THE GFS IS TURNING OUT HIGHER QPFS THIS LAST RUN...DO NOT FEEL STRONGLY ABOUT PUTTING UP A WATCH ATTM PER CONDITIONS AND GUIDANCE. GRAD TIGHTENS ALONG THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SFC...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER EARN SHORE...FAR EARN PTNS OF THE TIDEWATER AREA...AND ALSO CURRITUCK CO IN NC. INTERIOR AREAS CAN EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU EARLY SAT EVENING. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL...THOUGH ISOLATED TS WERE MENTIONED FOR SE SECTION OF CWA AND FAR EARN AREAS BY SAT MORN. THE BOUNDARY LAYER HERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MILDLY UNSTABLE (IF AT ALL) BEFORE THE FRNT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SAT EVENING THE LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE WELL OFF TO THE NE. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BECOME CLEAR AND DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE...MAY HAVE SOME DENSE FOG ISSUES SUN MORNING AND AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT/MON MORN. TEMPS STAY ON THE MILD SIDE AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW. NEXT FROPA PASSAGE COMES THU. NOT MANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED. AVIATION... CIGS AND VIS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THIS EVENING AS WE SEE AN INCREASE IN RA COVERAGE. LOOKING FOR PREDOMINANT CONDS IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDS IN HEAVIER RAIN. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY 12-15Z TOMORROW MORNING...AND CLOUDS WILL ALSO CLEAR ABOUT THE SAME TIME. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN RATHER GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW. MARINE... WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR OFFSHORE LOCATIONS...WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS STARTING IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG FOR AT LEAST 12-24 HRS BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOKING FOR WINDS OFFSHORE TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...WINDS WILL HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AND LOOK TO REMAIN 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID-WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WIND ADVISORY FOR MDZ021>025 FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY. NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ017-102 FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY. VA...WIND ADVISORY FOR VAZ095-098>100 FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY. MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ630-631-650-652-654 FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY. ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ632-633-656-658 FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...CULLEN/FOSTER va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 336 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... RAIN IS QUICKLY SPREADING TO COVER OUR ENTIRE CWA AT THIS HOUR. KAKQ RADAR ESTIMATES REPORT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS HAS FALLEN SO FAR. THIS IS IN ACCORDANCE WITH GUIDANCE...THOUGH I FEEL THE PRE-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS WERE NOT HANDLED AGGRESSIVELY ENOUGH...ESP SURPRISINGLY BY THE RUC. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY POSED JUST S OF THE NC BORDER AND MOVING N/NE ALONG W/ SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODERATE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME LARGE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED. HAVE NOTICED QPF AMOUNTS INCREASING PAST FEW MOD RUNS...AND INDEED SINCE INITIAL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN UNDERDONE (OR NONE AT ALL) HAVE BUMPED OP PRECIP AMOUNTS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH...ESP ALONG A N/S AXIS EXTENDING FROM S/CENTRAL VA TO NE NC. UP TO 2 INCHES OF QPF AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESP ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHERE WARMER AIR IS QUICKLY DISPLACED EARLY SAT MORNING BY A FAST MOVING CD FRT. SOIL IS STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST FROM EVENT(S) PAST...THEREFORE IT WILL BE ABLE TO RECEIVE AND RETAIN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF PRECIP...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN ANY PARTICULARLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OF COURSE PONDING ON THE ROADWAYS. THOUGH THE GFS IS TURNING OUT HIGHER QPFS THIS LAST RUN...DO NOT FEEL STRONGLY ABOUT PUTTING UP A WATCH ATTM PER CONDITIONS AND GUIDANCE. GRAD TIGHTENS ALONG THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SFC...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER EARN SHORE...FAR EARN PTNS OF THE TIDEWATER AREA...AND ALSO CURRITUCK CO IN NC. INTERIOR AREAS CAN EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU EARLY SAT EVENING. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL...THOUGH ISOLATED TS WERE MENTIONED FOR SE SECTION OF CWA AND FAR EARN AREAS BY SAT MORN. THE BOUNDARY LAYER HERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MILDLY UNSTABLE (IF AT ALL) BEFORE THE FRNT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SAT EVENING THE LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE WELL OFF TO THE NE. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BECOME CLEAR AND DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE...MAY HAVE SOME DENSE FOG ISSUES SUN MORNING AND AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT/MON MORN. TEMPS STAY ON THE MILD SIDE AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW. NEXT FROPA PASSAGE COMES THU. NOT MANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED. && .AVIATION... CIGS AND VIS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THIS EVENING AS WE SEE AN INCREASE IN RA COVERAGE. LOOKING FOR PREDOMINANT CONDS IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDS IN HEAVIER RAIN. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY 12-15Z TOMORROW MORNING...AND CLOUDS WILL ALSO CLEAR ABOUT THE SAME TIME. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN RATHER GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR OFFSHORE LOCATIONS...WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS STARTING IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG FOR AT LEAST 12-24 HRS BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOKING FOR WINDS OFFSHORE TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...WINDS WILL HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AND LOOK TO REMAIN 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID-WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WIND ADVISORY FOR MDZ021>025 FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY. NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ017-102 FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY. VA...WIND ADVISORY FOR VAZ095-098>100 FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630>632 FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM SUNDAY. ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658 FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658 FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...33 AVIATION/MARINE...MCNATT va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 330 AM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006 .DISCUSSION... 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENING NRN BRANCH TROF OVER CNTRL NAMERICA AS POTENT SHRTWV DIGGING INTO WI PER WV IMAGERY WITH RIBBON OF +150KT/90KT H3/H5 NW WINDS BTWN UPSTREAM RDG ALG THE W COAST AND TROF AXIS FM NRN MANITOBA INTO WI. ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FNT MOVING THRU THE CNTRL FA WITH BAND OF SHRA DESPITE LIMITED PWAT OF 0.42 INCH SHOWN ON 00Z GRB RAOB. H5 TEMP AT INL HAS FALLEN TO -34C BEHIND THE TROF...BUT LLVL AIR NOT PARTICULARLY COLD BEHIND THE BNDRY WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE -2C TO -4C RANGE/SFC TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S. 00Z INL SDNG IS RATHER UNSTABLE...SO A FEW LTG STRIKES NOTED WITHIN AREA OF ISOLD SHRA OVER NE MN/WRN LK SUP THAT IS TRAILING MAIN BAND OF PCPN. COVG OF THESE SHRA LIMITED BY DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE INL SDNG (PWAT THERE ONLY 0.29 INCH). WIND SPEEDS AT INL AS HI AS 37KT AT 4K FT AGL. POTENT SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN SRN BRANCH MOVING THRU THE OH VALLEY. DEEP WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR TO THE E OF THIS SYS HAS PUSHED INTO THE CNTRL GRT LKS TO THE SE OF THE FA. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE POTENTIAL INTERACTION BTWN NRN AND SRN BRANCH SHRTWVS AND ACCOMPANYING PCPN COVG/TYPE/WINDS OVER THE FA. FOR TDAY...GUIDANCE SHOWS DIGGING NRN BRANCH SHRTWV PHASING WITH SHRTWV LIFTING THRU THE OH VALLEY...WITH RDPLY DEEPENING SFC LO PRES OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER BY 00Z SUN. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW SFC LO DEEPENING TO 978MB...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUT NOT AS INTENSE AS EARLIER DEEPER GFS SOLNS. IT APPEARS PHASING OF FEATURES WL OCCUR TOO FAR E FOR SGNFT PCPN OVER THE FA AS DEEPER WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR IS TOO FAR E... BUT POTENT DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CVNGC/UPR DVGC SHOWN BY NAM/GFS IN LEFT EXIT OF H3 JET MAX DIGGING INTO DEEPENING UPR TROF SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT DESPITE LIMITED MSTR FOR SHRA ALL DAY OVER THE E AS STRG DYNAMICS/DEEPER MSTR NOT FCST TO CLR ERY UNTIL 21Z OR SO. MARGINAL CHILL OF INCOMING AIRMASS WL LIMIT POTENTIAL TO CHG THE RA TO SN ON THE WRN EDGE OF MORE WDSRPD PCPN SHIELD AS A RESULT OF IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC COOLING. EVEN IF PCPN TYPE DOES CHG TO SN...LLVL TEMPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO LIMIT SN ACCUM AS WELL. DRYNESS/ MARGINAL CHILL OF INCOMING AIRMASS WARRANTS CUTTING LES CHCS OVER THE W 1/2...BUT WL STILL CARRY SCT/HI CHC POPS FOR SHRASN DUE TO DEPTH OF STEEP LAPSE RATES SFC-H5 SHOWN ON NAM FCST SDNG FOR IWD THIS AFTN. AS FOR WINDS...FCST PRES GRADIENT ACRS LK SUP FCST ARND 14MB OR SO BY 00Z SUN...WITH H925 WINDS UP TO 40-45KT. SINCE PRES RISE CENTER FCST TO STAY TO THE S AND LLVL PUSH OF VERY COLD AIR ABSENT...CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR AS CONDUCIVE FOR DAMAGING HI WIND EVENT DESPITE RATHER DEEP INSTABILITY. FOR TNGT...FA FCST UNDER SLOWLY RISING HGTS/DNVA/VIGOROUS H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF DEEPENING OCCLUSION EDGING SLOWLY NE INTO QUEBEC. AIRMASS REMAINS MARGINALLY COLD/MOIST FOR ANY LES... SO NO MORE THAN CHC POPS. AREAS ACRS THE SCNTRL SHOULD SEE NOTHING MORE THAN PCLDY SKIES WITH STRG DOWNSLOPING NW WIND. NAM/GFS SHOW H85 WINDS UP TO 50KT OVER THE E 1/2 CLOSER TO CYCLONE...SO STRG WINDS/ GALES ON THE E 2/3 OF THE LK SHOULD LINGER. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WL ARRIVE...STRG NW FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LK SUP WL ACT TO PREVENT AS LARGE A DIURNAL TEMP FALL AS MIGHT OTRW BE POSSIBLE. SGNFT H5 HGT RISES AOA 120M FCST ON SUN AS UPR RDGING/DNVA IN THE WAKE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING CYC OVERSPREADS THE UPR GRT LKS. EXPECT LINGERING LES OVER THE E TO DIMINISH WITH ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG. BUT UKMET/GFS SHOW INCRSG H7 MSTR OVER THE W IN THE AFTN PER GFS FCST ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K-300K SFCS (H8-6). MIXING TO H85 ON GFS FCST SDNGS SUPPORT HI TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE. WARM FNT TO THE NE OF DVLPG SFC LO IN THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING TROF IN THE NRN ROCKIES FCST TO SET UP SHOP NOT TOO FAR TO THE S ON SUN NGT. MODELS DEPICT DRY LLVLS...SO EXPECT ONLY PTCHY CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACCOMPANYING FGEN. WITH LGT WINDS...LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE DEEPENING LO FM THE PLAINS INTO MON...REMOVED POPS AS GFS/UKMET/ECMWF PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR PCPN. EXPECT JUST HI/ SOME MID CLD DUE TO LOWER LVL DRYNESS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING E 2/3 LK SUPERIOR. WIND ADVISORY MIZ001 4 AM-8 AM EDT SUNDAY. WIND ADVISORY MIZ005 8 AM-8 PM EDT SATURDAY. WIND ADVISORY MIZ006 8 AM-8 AM EDT SUNDAY. WIND ADVISORY MIZ007 11 AM-8 AM EDT SUNDAY. && $$ KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 110 AM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006 .AVIATION... WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FROM MAINLY FNT SOUTHWARD IN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION BETWEEN UPPER WAVES. PATCHY IFR MAY DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH INTO MBS AREA 06-10Z AS SOUTHERN WAVE OPENS UP AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. STILL ANTICIPATE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY 09-18Z AS WAVE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN MERGES WITH UPPER WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ANTICIPATE WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY 12Z-18Z...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 20-30 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z...AND PERSISTING TO THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN ALSO EXPECTED 12-15Z WITH A QUICK SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST 18Z-00Z...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME A MORE SHOWERY AS 500 MB COLD POOL MOVES OVER THE REGION. WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER IN TAFS BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH LATEST MODEL RUN. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 00-06Z UNDER DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW. MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO DECREASE AFTER 06Z...WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AND BROKEN MVFR CIGS. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION A 996MB SURFACE LOW WAS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 19Z AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ABOUT 1MB/HR. PRESSURE FALLS WERE APPROACHING 5-6MBS/3HRS ACROSS CENTRAL-EASTERN KENTUCKY AS 150KT 300MB JET WAS DIVING INTO THE DAKOTAS. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FAVORS A MORE WESTERN TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW WITH THE UKMET/WRF-HEMI AND SHORT RANGE RUC ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. WITH THAT SAID...RAPID DEEPENING SHOULD COMMENCE TONIGHT WITH THE TRACK BETWEEN CLE/BUF OVERNIGHT THEN INTO LOWER ONTARIO/QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE RAIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT SOUTH OF M59 AND EAST OF I75 OVERNIGHT. WITH THE SURGE OF WARMER AIR AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE AS WELL FOR MOST OF THE CWA. THE UKMET LOOKS GOOD WITH CURRENT SURFACE LOW TRACK/INTENSITY AND IT REMAINS THE DEEPEST AT 970MB SATURDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS LOW BOTTOM OUT ANOTHER COUPLE OF MILLIBARS. THE HIGH WIND WATCH ISSUED EARLIER LOOKS GOOD AS BUFKIT PROFILES FROM THE NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD 5000 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE 60KTS RESIDES. FURTHERMORE...SINKING MOTIONS SEEN IN THE CROSS SECTIONS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE TO FURTHER ASSIST WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM. EVENING/OVERNIGHT TEAM WILL HAVE ONE MORE LOOK AND CAN GO AHEAD WITH EITHER AN ADVISORY OR WARNING. LOW WRAPS UP TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH COLD ADVECTION DIVING INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD -6C. HARD TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL OCCUR BUT WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES HANGING OUT AROUND 1305-1310DM...AND WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...HARD PRESSED TO GET MUCH ACCUMULATIONS BUT WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE WE ARE ABLE TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SUNSET. LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE BIG EASTERN LAKES STORM...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FOR SUNDAY. 850 TEMPS START TO WARM DURING THE DAY TOO...SO WHATEVER LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO THE CLOUDS THERE IS TO START THE DAY WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT SUNDAY. THAT WILL GIVE MOST OF THE CWA MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE COMES THE POTENTIAL OF INCREASING THE MIXING HEIGHTS AND BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...POTENTIALLY STILL IN ADVISORY LEVEL OF 45 MPH OR GREATER...THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS NAM HOLDS ON TO 925 MB WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. GRADIENT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL STILL PLAGUE LAKE HURON AND EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY WITH FREQUENT GUST REACHING 48 KTS...AND AGAIN THE NAM HAS 45 TO 50 KTS AT 925 MB OVER THE LAKE THROUGH AROUND 18Z. WILL GO TOWARD THE WARMER MAV/MET GUIDANCE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND 850 WARMING THAT TAKES PLACE ON SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT WARMING CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH 850 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +12C ON SW 850 MB WINDS OF 40 KTS. AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH TEMPS ABOVE 60 AND ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN THE 12Z MEX NUMBERS. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND INCREASED MIXING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH THE INCREASING GRADIENT...EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ON MONDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE QUICKER THROUGH THE LAKES REGION...NOW PASSING THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. DEW POINTS INCREASE TO THE LOWER 50S AHEAD OF IT WITH SURFACE AND 925 MB LI/S DROPPING TO NEAR +1. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER... AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED EXCEPT AT THE SURFACE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 30 PCT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...COLD AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE REGION. MODELS ALL AGREE THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROF FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH STRONG DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHER MODELS...THE WRFHEMI...UK...ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL INDICATE A MUCH WEAKER WAVE AND IN SOME CASES NO REAL SURFACE DEVELOPMENT AT ALL. GIVEN THIS WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID AND LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO THE CONSENSUS IS NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS...ESPECIALLY AT 850 MBS WHICH WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT A LITTLE MORE TEMPERED THAN THE GFS. STILL WILL HAVE TEMPS CLOSE TO 12Z MEX...BECAUSE THE AIR IS COLD AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AROUND TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...HIGH WIND WATCH...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055- MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075- MIZ076-MIZ082-MIZ083...NOON SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY. LAKE HURON...STORM WARNING...ALL OPEN WATERS...OUTER SAGINAW BAY... NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON...NOON SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY. GALE WARNING...INNER SAGINAW BAY...NOON SATURDAY TO 1 PM SUNDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...NOON SATURDAY TO 1 PM SUNDAY. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...NOON SATURDAY TO 1 PM SUNDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM....RBP AVIATION.....GSS YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE). mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 323 AM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... SFC LOW PULLING INTO WRN PA WITH 2NDRY DEVEL UNDERWAY IN NW NC. AREA HAS BEEN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW BUT OVER THE LAST 2 HRS THE WAA HAS NEARLY SHUT DOWN. STRONG SRLY FLOW CONTINUES BUT WITH THE LACK OF WAA THE SOURCE FOR LL ASCENT HAS ALL BUT STOPPED. STILL PLENTY OF ACTION OFFSHORE THOUGH DUE TO HIGHER TEMPS AND STEEP LL LAPSE RATES. OVER LAND HOWEVER THE ONLY REMAINING GENERATION FOR PRECIPITATION IS THE MID LEVEL H8 FALLS AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND THE LAST MINUTE CONV ASSOC WITH THE COLD FRONT...WHICH NOW RUNS ROUGHLY FROM CLT TO AUG AND TLH. RAINFALL WILL BE MORE SPOTTY THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE AND THEN TAPER QUICKLY FROM W TO E. EVEN IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WINDS OF ADV CRITERIA HAVE NOT REALLY MATERIALIZED SO THAT PRODUCT HAS BEEN CANCELED EARLY. A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY OVER WATER DUE TO LACK OF FRICTION AND LL LAPSE RATES...SEE BELOW IN MARINE SECTION. THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE BEACHES BUT MESNET SUGGESTS THAT THEY TOO ARE SHORT OF ADV CRITERIA. HIGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER FROPA WHEN THE OFFSHORE WINDS START TAKING A BITE OUT OF THE H8 OF THE BREAKING WAVES. TIDES HAVE BEEN 0.5 OR MORE FT ABV NORMAL BUT STILL SHORT OF COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS. MID TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/ HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR...BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP SLIGHTLY AS JUST ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD STILL BE SW OF THE AREA ON SUN WITH A LIGHT WSW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND THEN JUST TO THE E BY DAYS END MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO VEER FROM SW TO NE SUN NIGHT AND THEN TO SE BY LATE MON. A WEAK SEABREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PENETRATE JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES MON AFTERNOON. THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL START OUT JUST BELOW NORMAL AND END UP JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY MON AFTERNOON...EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEABREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE/THREE DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR CLIMO LEVELS NEXT WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAK NORTH FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE. GUIDANCE SHOWS COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT LATEST RUNS ARE SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH WITH LIMITED PRECIP. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH...KEEPING PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION... RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE IN THE SHORT TERM DEPICTING A RELATIVE LOWER LEVEL DRY SLO AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...INDICATING THE STRONG TILT IN THE VERTICAL OF THIS STRONG SYSTEM. THAT SAID...MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS OVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT IN NATURE THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK. CIGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND BRIEF IFR BUT FEEL THAT THE FORMER MERITS PREDOMINANT GROUPS/FCST. ONE LAST LINE OF HEAVIER PRECIP...BRIEF IFR...AND MAYBE SOME THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. KLTX VWP SHOWING 40-50 KTS MORE OR LESS MAINTAINED WITHIN THE LOWEST 2KFT SO LLWS CARRIED AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND FROPA WHEN MIXING DOWN OF HIGHER SFC WINDS PAIRED WITH WEAKENING OF LL JET SHOULD MAKE LLWS CRITERIA NO LONGER BE MET. DRYING OF THE COLUMN WILL BE RAPID WITH FROPA AND VFR EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF PD AS GUSTY WINDS GRADUALLY TAPER THRU AFTERNOON AND THEN RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM/TODAY... GALE WARNING STILL IN EFFECT AS VERY STRONG GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BRING VERY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS. WITH SUCH LARGE WAVES LIKELY SHELTERING BUOY ANEMOMETERS...THE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KTS ARE PROBABLY MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ACRS MOST OF THE WATERS. KLTX VWP HAS BEEN INDICATING 50KTS AT 1-2KFT OCCASIONALLY OVER THE PAST FEW HRS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THE WATER INDICATE THAT A FEW GUSTS MAY HAVE BEEN THAT HIGH. WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH GRADUALLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE SWING TO OFFSHORE WILL START TO OPEN UP A LARGER NR SHORE VS OFFSHORE DIFF IN WAVE H8. MID TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL DAMPEN SEA HEIGHTS SO THAT BY TONIGHT... SEAS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 6 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE WILL DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS SUN AND MON. WINDS WILL START OUT W THIS EVENING AND VEER TO NW OVERNIGHT AS THEY DIMINISH WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL N OF THE AREA CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THE EVE WITH A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT SUSTAINED FOR A GOOD PART OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO N SUN NIGHT AND THEN COME ALL THE WAY AROUND TO ESE DURING MON. WIND SPEEDS EARLY SUN WILL BE AROUND 15 KT...BUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUN AND THROUGH MON...10 KT OR LESS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MONDAY SHIFTING OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY. SURFACE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEEK...KEEPING SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NCZ097-100-101 UNTIL NOON SATURDAY. SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SCZ034-046 UNTIL NOON SATURDAY. MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR AMZ250-252-254-256 UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...MBB MID TERM...RJD AVIATION...MBB nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 124 AM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... RAISED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. WINDS AND SEA OBSERVATIONS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS ARE RUNNING HIER THAN FORECASTS. AS A RESULT...WILL HAVE TO UP THE CURRENT SEAS FORECAST IN THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIER SURF CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL NOW REACH HIGH SURF THRESHOLDS. NOW THAT WAS A MOUTHFUL. LOW TIDE OCCURS AROUND 6AM SATURDAY. EVENTHOUGH THE WORST OF THE ONSHORE WIND CONDITIONS AND SEAS OCCUR AROUND THIS TIME...COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS WILL NOT BE MET. WILL CONTINUE THE STEADY OR RISING OVERNIGHT TEMPS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW THAT CROSSES ATLANTIC SSTS THAT ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S. MID TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/ PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING ALONG THE COAST AS THE SUN RISES SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE ENDING AS THE INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL CLEAR SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. COLD ADVECTION COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A LITTLE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS. THESE SAME UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL MIX DOWN HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR FROM ALOFT AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH DURING THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURE CURVE ON SATURDAY WILL BE VERY NON-DIURNAL ALONG THE COAST WITH READINGS NEAR THE HIGH FOR THE DAY AT SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES INLAND AT THIS SAME TIME SHOULD ALREADY HAVE FALLEN SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THEIR EARLIER MORNING PEAK. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER PEAK...BUT TEMPERATURES COULD BEGIN TO SLIDE AGAIN BY MID AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRAWLS EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES. ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST SATURDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING...BUT A WEAKER GRADIENT SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DROP OFF TO NEAR CALM. WE HAVE UNDERCUT GFS MOS HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MAINLY 65-68 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR CLIMO LEVELS NEXT WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAK NORTH FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE. GUIDANCE SHOWS COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT LATEST RUNS ARE SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH WITH LIMITED PRECIP. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH...KEEPING PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...UPDATED RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE IN THE SHORT TERM DEPICTING A RELATIVE LOWER LEVEL DRY SLO AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...INDICATING THE STRONG TILT IN THE VERTICAL OF THIS STRONG SYSTEM. THAT SAID...MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS OVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT IN NATURE THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK. CIGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND BRIEF IFR BUT FEEL THAT THE FORMER MERITS PREDOMINANT GROUPS/FCST. ONE LAST LINE OF HEAVIER PRECIP...BRIEF IFR...AND MAYBE SOME THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. KLTX VWP SHOWING 40-50 KTS MORE OR LESS MAINTAINED WITHIN THE LOWEST 2KFT SO LLWS CARRIED AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND FROPA WHEN MIXING DOWN OF HIGHER SFC WINDS PAIRED WITH WEAKENING OF LL JET SHOULD MAKE LLWS CRITERIA NO LONGER BE MET. DRYING OF THE COLUMN WILL BE RAPID WITH FROPA AND VFR EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF PD AS GUSTY WINDS GRADUALLY TAPER THRU AFTERNOON AND THEN RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... LATEST WIND AND SEA OBSERVATIONS ARE RUNNING HIER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. WILL MAKE THE APPROPRIATE CHANGES UPWARDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SUSTAINED SPEEDS WITHIN GALES...BUT WILL LIKELY OBSERVE SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE. ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION SHULD EASILY PULL DOWN THE 45-55 KNOT WINDS FROM THE 925MB LEVEL. MID TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT LIGHTER OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS SATURDAY MORNING...STILL STIRRED UP BY THE INTENSE WINDS OF TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 6-10 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS...TO AS HIGH AS 14 FT IN THE NC COASTAL WATERS. CONDITIONS FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL BE EVEN WORSE. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KNOCK THESE SEAS DOWN RATHER QUICKLY WITH SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS DROPPING BELOW 6 FT BY BEFORE SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHTER OFFSHORE FLOW SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO ONLY 2-3 FT SEAS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MONDAY SHIFTING OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY. SURFACE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEEK...KEEPING SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...WIND ADVISORY NCZ097/100/101. ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NCZ097/100/101. SC...WIND ADVISORY SCZ034/046. ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY SCZ034/046. MARINE...GALE WARNING SURF CITY TO S SANTEE RIVER. && $$ AVIATION...MBB SHORT TERM...HOEHLER MARINE SHORT...HOEHLER nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1242 AM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006 .SECOND UPDATE... A STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE GALE WARNING WAS LEFT INTACT FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY. THE 00Z GFS AND NAM, AND THE 03Z RUC ARE ALL STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS, SHOWING 925 HPA WINDS UP TO 70 KNOTS. EVEN IF ONLY 70 PERCENT OF THIS MIXES TO THE SURFACE, 50 KNOTS GUSTS ARE TO BE EXPECTED. && .FIRST UPDATE... UPDATED TEMPERATURE AND ASSOCIATED GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TREND WILL BE A VERY SLOW RISE NOW THAT THE RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATED ZFP AFTER 8 PM TO SPRUCE UP WORDING FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. && RPW PREVIOUS DISC... .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SHORT TERM IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST. WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL SHRTWV IS MOVING EAST INTO THE MID MISS VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES WAS LOCATED AT 18Z OVER NW TENN...IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS FCST...BUT 1 MB DEEPER. PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM EXTENDS NEWD FROM GLFMEX ACROSS THE MID-ATL REGION...WITH A DRY SLOT FARTHER W INTO WRN TENN AND KY. THE SURFACE LOW IS FCST TO TRACK NW OF OUR FCST AREA...ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND INTO WRN NY BY SAT MORN. THE LOW IS ALSO FCST TO DEEPEN VERY RAPIDLY IN THE 12 HOUR PERIOD FROM 06Z TO 18Z SAT. SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH STRONGS WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATER AND A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ADJACECT LAND AREAS. WINDS FARTHER INLAND WILL BE NOT QUITE AS STRONG...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE REMAINED OF OUR FCST AREA. FCST WINDS AT 925 MB FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE OVER 50KT FOR THE WIND ADVISORY AREA. THE OTHER PROBLEM WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORN. AT THIS TIME IT IS FELT THAT MOSTLY STRATIFORM RAIN WILL FALL OVER A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD THAT ANY FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED AND GENERALLY MINOR. HOWEVER... ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST AND LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES COULD OCCUR EARLY SAT MORN. THE NWS WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION AND ISSUE FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS IF NECESSARY. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS BY MIDDAY SAT AS THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN. THE SFC LOW IS FCST TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SAT NIGHT AS IT MOVES NEWD INTO SE CANADA. COLD ADVECTION AND A STRONG PRES GRADIENT WILL COMBINE TO CREATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG BEHIND THE LOW...CONDS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMEMTUM. THUS A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW GRADUALLY FILLS AND MOVES FARTHER NE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... USED HPC GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES OR UPGRADES. THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE ABSOLUTELY GORGEOUS. HALLOWEEN LOOKS TO BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING WITH IT OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING HIGH QPF'S THIS FAR OUT AND KEPT RAINFALL TOTALS BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR NOW. MIGHT EVEN SEE SOME FLURRIES UP IN THE POCONOS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS DROP OFF BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO COOL US DOWN ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE LOWER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS USUAL, THE POCONOS REGION AND NW NJ WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BIT COLDER. && .AVIATION... AT MID AFTERNOON, CEILINGS WERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 5000 FEET AT ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES AND THERE WERE NO RESTRICTIONS TO THE VSBY. THE LEADING BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN WAS MAKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING, WITH ALL OF OUR TAF SITES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WE'VE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DUE TO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET EXPECTED AROUND THAT TIME. THERE MAY ALSO BE ISOLATED TSTMS AROUND DAYBREAK. HOWEVER, WE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THEIR MENTION IN THE TAFS DUE TO THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES AROUND MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WE'LL GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND AND A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CEILING AND VSBY VALUES. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WE'RE EXPECTING TO EXPERIENCE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND A GUSTY WEST WIND. && .MARINE... WE'LL MAINTAIN THE GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 6:00 AM ON MONDAY. WE'LL LIKELY START TO SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PASSES OVERHEAD FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WE'LL MENTION GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS, THOUGH ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 50 OR 55 KNOTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL SET UP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. && .TIDES... WE SHOULDN'T HAVE ANY TIDAL FLOODING ISSUES WITH SATURDAY'S MIDDAY HIGH TIDE ALONG THE OCEANFRONT. WE WOULD NEED DEPARTURES CLOSE TO 2 FEET TO BEGIN EXPERIENCING MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. THIS WILL BASICALLY BE A ONE CYCLE SYSTEM AND DEPARTURES SHOULDN'T HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD THAT HIGH. HOWEVER, THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY DRAINING AS THE TIDE BEGINS TO COME IN ON SATURDAY MORNING. WITH A STRONG AND PERSISTENT WEST WIND EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WE MAY EXPERIENCE BLOW OUT TIDES AROUND THE TIMES OF LOW TIDE ON SUNDAY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WIND ADVISORY FOR PAZ067>071 UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY. ...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071 FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY. NJ...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027 FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR NJZ008>010-012-015>019-021 UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY. ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NJZ013-014-020-022>027 UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY. DE...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR DEZ001>004 FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR DEZ001-002 UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY. ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR DEZ003-004 UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY. MD...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020 FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020 UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY. MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ430 UNTIL 5 AM MONDAY. ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ431-450>455 FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM MONDAY. ...STORM WARNING FOR ANZ431-450>455 UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...AMC LONG TERM...MEOLA AVIATION/MARINE...IOVINO MARINE UPDATE.../ pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 400 AM CDT SAT OCT 28 2006 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON VERY WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AS STRONG SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES. 00Z ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING IMPRESSIVE UPPER S/W PLOWING SEWD THROUGH WI EARLY THIS MORNING. 00Z RAOBS/PROFILERS DEPICTING 130+KT 300MB JET OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 150KT AS IT DIVES SEWD. ALSO OF INTEREST ARE MASSIVE 300/500MB HEIGHT FALLS IN EXCESS OF 200 METERS NOTED AT KINL AND OVER SRN ONTARIO...AS WELL AS DOWN IN TN VALLEY. AT THE SFC...RUC/MSAS INDICATING DEEPENING 992 SFC LOW OVER WRN OHIO AS OF 08Z. CLOSER TO HOME...LOCAL RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH S/W NOW PUSHING EAST OF AREA WITH IR IMAGERY SHOWING CLEARING SKIES OVERHEAD. FOR TODAY...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ON WIND POTENTIAL AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER ERN GREAT LAKES. GFS/WRF/RUC IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DROPPING SFC PRESSURE TO AROUND 988MB OVER WRN NY BY 12Z...TO AROUND 980MB BY 18Z SAT...AND TO AROUND 976MB BY 00Z SUN. AS A RESULT...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN OVER SRN WI...WITH STRONGEST GRADIENT IN THE EASTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WINDS FIELDS AS WELL /PEAKING AROUND 18Z/ WITH 925MB WINDS BETWEEN 35-40KTS...AND 850MB WINDS OF 45-50KTS. WITH DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...SFC TO 850B LAPSE RATES TURN NRLY DRY ADIABATIC...WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO SFC. ALSO OF CONCERN IS CURRENT KMKX VWP...WHICH IS INDICATING 45KTS AT LOWEST GATE...AND 60KTS AROUND 3K FEET...CURRENTLY UNDERDONE BY MODELS. THUS...WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR ALL LAKESHORE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS WAUKESHA AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...AS SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 30 MPH FOR A TIME...WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. OVERALL...EXPECTING THIS TO BE A LOWER END EVENT BUT WILL ERROR ON SIDE OF CAUTION. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS TODAY...ALTHOUGH DID UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES AS IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO WARM AS OF LATE. QUIET CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS. STRONG WAA EXPECTED AHEAD OF NEXT LOW MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY TO NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY MONDAY EVENING. GFS H8 TEMPS CLIMB TO 10-12C SUNDAY NIGHT...SETTING STAGE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY ON MONDAY. SHOULD HIT 60F AT MANY SITES...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP EYE ON CLOUD COVER AS MODELS SHOWING POTENTIALLY THICK CIRRUS DECK DVLPG...WHICH COULD REDUCE INSOLATION. COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL POPS STILL WARRANTED...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS MEAGER. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...GREAT LAKES REGION TO TRANSITION TO A DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT...AS POLAR VORTEX REDEVELOPS NEAR HUDSON BAY. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL BACK INTO THE -7 TO -10C RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY...FOR A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072. && $$ FOWLE wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1210 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006 .UPDATE...NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING UNDERWAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIVING SE INTO OHIO ON THE NOSE OF 150+ KNOT JET DIVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...SFC LOW CENTERED OVER LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO DEEPEN... WITH MSAS ANALYZED 3-HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES EXCEEDING 5 MB FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE EAST COAST. RUC80 DATA PEGGING STRONGEST REGION OF QG UPWARD FORCING AND PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO...WITHIN REGION OF STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS/THERMAL CHANGES. ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERE NOT PARTICULARLY COLD THIS MORNING (-2C AT 850 MB ON 12Z APX SOUNDING) PRECIPITATION TYPE AS USUAL LINKED TO ELEVATION WITH RAIN NEAR THE LAKES AT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...TRANSITIONING BACK AND FORTH FROM RAIN TO BRIEF HEAVY SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MI. IN FACT WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SNOW...HAVE SEEN VSBYS DOWN TO HALF A MILE OR LESS AND BRIEF ACCUMULATIONS. TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRED QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT DUE TO STRONG DYNAMIC AND PRECIP EVAPORATIVE COOLING. 12Z KAPX SOUNDING BEARS THIS OUT WITH A SATURATED MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE AND ABOVE FREEZING LAYER LESS THAN 1000 FEET AGL. MEANWHILE...ON THE HEELS OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE...DRY SLOT PUNCHING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING ALONG WITH CORE OF -30C 500 MB TEMPS PRODUCING STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIP ACROSS THIS AREA. HAVE EVEN OBSERVED A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES IN SE MICHIGAN WITHIN THE DRY SLOT. FOR THE AFTERNOON...MID LEVEL WAVE/REGION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/BULLSEYE OF QG UPWARD FORCING FORECAST TO SLIDE OFF TO THE E/SE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE DRY SLOT TO THE SW NOSES UP INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THUS...EXPECT PERSISTENT CATEGORICAL PRECIP ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN TO DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST...TRANSITIONING INTO A NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT REGIME (LAKE-850 MB DELTA T/S RUNNING AROUND 15C THROUGH THE DAY). BUT GIVEN HOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA HAVE WARMED A BIT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN MOST CASES...WILL KEEP THE MIX GOING THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN UPPER MI AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND MAINLY RAIN FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS NOW BEGINNING TO RAMP UP AND ALL MARINE/LAND BASED HEADLINES WILL REMAIN INTACT FOR NOW. ADAM && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006 .DISCUSSION...EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITHIN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET...A 35-40 UNIT VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS ROLLING SE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG THE NOSE OF A 150+ KNOT UPPER JET CORE ALSO PUNCHING SE THROUGH THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...CARVING OUT A NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH AND DRIVING A SURFACE COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. MEANWHILE...WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET...VIGOROUS LOWS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WERE ROLLING ENE THROUGH THE MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITHIN THE HEIGHT FALL REGIME BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...WATER VAPOR/IR IMAGERY DEPICTED A BROAD BAROCLINIC FANNING OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES...COINCIDENT WITH A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEMS WILL PHASE TODAY...RESULTING IN A DEEP/CLOSED CIRCULATION ALOFT AND A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT WILL ROLL NE THEN N THROUGH THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER BY THIS EVENING. FORECAST ATTENTION WILL FOCUS ON THE IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SPECIFICALLY... THE MAIN PROBLEMS OF THE DAY INCLUDE SNOW ACCUMULATION AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL. AT ISSUANCE TIME...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THAT FRONT SHOULD CLEAR EASTERN COUNTIES BY AROUND DAYBREAK. PER UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS...DEPICTING AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER ASCENT REGIME AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH JET MAX...THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THEN...AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE EASTERN LAKES AND THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER WESTERN PA/NY...THE PRECIPITATION SHIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEMS WILL MERGE...AND THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL EXPAND TO ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA...WITHIN THE STRONG/DEEP LAYER ASCENT REGIME UNDER THE COMMA HEAD. INITIALLY...THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD RAIN (AND ISOLATED THUNDER WITHIN A PLUME OF 500 MB TEMPS -30 TO -35C/700-500 MB LAPSE RATES 7-8 C/KM UNDER THE JET CORE ACROSS S/SW COUNTIES)...THEN THE COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC COOLING/COLD ADVECTION WILL DRIVE 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -4C TO -7C RANGE BY 0Z...SO RAIN WILL MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW. BECAUSE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED CONTRIBUTION FROM DYNAMIC COOLING...AND DUE TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL (SUPPORTED BY MODEL CROSS SECTIONS REVEALING FOLDED SATURATED THETA-E SURFACES/NEGATIVE EPV IN THE 600-400 MB LAYER) FEEL THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR MORE RAPIDLY THEN DEPICTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH PRECIP TURNING TO ALL SNOW BY MIDDAY (AS 0Z GFS FREEZING LEVELS FALL BELOW 1000 FT AGL) OVER THE EASTERN UP AND ACROSS HIGHER INLAND ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE JET PUNCHING SE THROUGH THE LAKES THIS MORNING...THE 0Z NAM/GFS AGREE THAT MOMENTUM WILL CARRY THE UPPER LOW/COMMA CLOUD/DEEP MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AND STEADY PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AS THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM ROLLS ENE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS FALLING TO 5-6 KFT AND LAKE-850 MB DELTA TS AROUND 15C...LOCAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO MINOR-LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...THUS...MAXIMUM POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN INCH (PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES IF PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW EARLIER) ACROSS HIGHER INLAND ELEVATIONS OF NW LOWER MI. MEANWHILE...WIND FIELDS WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ISALLOBARIC ENHANCEMENT PROVIDED BY THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE REGION...AND BY A DEEP MIXED LAYER TAPPING INTO 45-55 KNOT 950-850 MB WINDS...AND GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON. WILL CONTINUE GALE/STORM WARNINGS ALREADY ISSUED FOR NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES (LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND GALE WARNINGS FOR NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WHERE STORM WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...INTO SUNDAY NIGHT). ON LAND...WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORIES THAT WERE ALREADY IN EFFECT. WHERE HIGH WIND WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT FOR NE LOWER MICHIGAN...WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR CHEBOYGAN AND PRESQUE ISLE COUNTIES...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...COASTAL EXPOSURE AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH...AND WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTIES THAT WERE IN THE WATCH. TONIGHT...WESTERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP MOIST SHIELD WILL LINGER ACROSS EXTREME NE AREAS...FROM ANJ TO THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE...THUS BUMPED UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE 1-2 INCH RANGE THERE FOR THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...NW LOW LEVEL FLOW...INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5 KFT...LAKE-850 MB DELTA TS 16-18C AND 850-700 MB RH REMAINING ABOVE 60% WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IN FAVORED AREAS...MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN UP AND INLAND NW LOWER MICHIGAN AND MIXED RAIN/SNOW ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN/HURON SHORELINES. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE ONGOING FORECAST OF MAX SNOW AMOUNTS 2-3 INCHES AT THE HIGHEST INLAND LOCATIONS IN NW LOWER MI...AND BLOWING SNOW COULD DEVELOP AS WELL. FROM A HEADLINE PERSPECTIVE...FOR MINIMUM CONFUSION AND BECAUSE INITIALLY STRONG WIND WILL CONSTITUTE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...OPTED TO CONTINUE THE ONGOING WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR NW FLOW AREAS...BUT THE DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A SHIFT TO WINTER WEATHER (SNOW/BLOWING SNOW) ADVISORIES FOR A FEW COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS (MIXED WITH RAIN NEAR THE COAST) WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN A STEADY DRYING TREND (850-700 MB RH DECREASING BELOW 30%)...GRADUAL 850 MB WARMING AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACKING TOWARD THE WEST SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS...AND WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP MONDAY...WITH TEMPS ACTUALLY INTO THE 50S AT MANY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE STRAITS...ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THAT FRONT...MOISTURE REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT 850 MB TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10C TO -12C RANGE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WAS COVERED WELL IN ONGOING FORECASTS...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NOT NEEDED. ROWLEY && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HIGH WIND WARNING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...MIZ017-018. WIND ADVISORY...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...MIZ008-015-016-019>036-041-042. STORM WARNING...THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...LHZ347-348. GALE WARNING...THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...LSZ321-322- LMZ341-342-344-345-323-LHZ345-346-349. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 232 PM MDT SAT OCT 28 2006 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY) MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING GENERALLY WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MARCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATING SNOW PACK DIMINISHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SE PLAINS...WITH BEST COVERAGE NORTH AND EAST OF A MONUMENT TO FALCON LINE AND SOUTH AND WEST OF A BEULAH TO LA JUNTA LINE. SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATING SNOW PACK PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST OF WESTCLIFFE AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS FROM NORTH OF CRESTONE TO JUST NORTH OF THE SAND DUNES. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN BREAKS DOWN WITH WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE STATE AS A MINOR DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ATTM UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT (H7 TEMPS BETWEEN +4C TO +8C) AND INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW...SHOULD SEE VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION BELT SETS UP AND THE LOWEST READINGS ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AS A DRY AIRMASS CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK WINDS ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. I HAVE GONE AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK LEE TROUGHING SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ALLOWING FOR GOOD MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING. I DID HOWEVER TEMPER TEMPERATURES IN THE LAST OF THE SNOW COVERED REGIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS. -MW .LONG TERM... (MON THROUGH SAT) ...ONE MORE MILD/WARM DAY MON... ...COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE ACROSS EASTERN CO FOR MON NIGHT/TUE... MON...MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS PROJECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AS A MINOR SOUTHERN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SYSTEM RACES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND THE GFS...WHICH IS TYPICALLY WET...HAS NO QPF AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM AND ITS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRIVES TOWARDS NORTHEASTERN CO MON AFTERNOON. GIVEN H7 TEMPERATURES OF 0C TO +4C...TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO AND IT MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES. MON NIGHT AND TUE...SHALLOW COLD FRONT STILL SCHEDULED TO BLAST THROUGH EASTERN CO MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PRETTY SHALLOW...SURFACE TO H75. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUE AND THAT SHOULD WEDGE THE CP AIR MASS UP AGAINST EASTERN CO AND THE FOOTHILLS. VERY TRICKY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY TUE. 12KM WRF IS HINTING AT IFR-VFR STRATUS AND FOG POTENTIAL LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. LOW LEVEL RELATIVELY MOIST FLOW(SFC-H75) ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR ON TUE. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PALMER DIVIDE(KCOS) JUXTAPOSED WITH WEAK INSENTROPIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE LIFR-IFR STRATUS/FOG EVENT TUE FOR KCOS. HOWEVER... TOUGH CALL THIS FAR OUT. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S ACROSS EASTERN CO. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO IF THE SUN CAN COME OUT...THEN WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GET INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50F ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO. GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CP AIR MASS...THE WARMER SPOTS WILL PROBABLY BE THE SAN LUIS AND UPPER AR RIVER VALLEYS TUE. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THERE IS A WEAK WESTERLY WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND MIDLEVEL STATIC STABILITIES WILL BE APPROACHING MODERATELY UNSTABLE. GIVEN SOME H7-H4 MOISTURE....THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. INSENTROPIC ANALYSIS AT THE 305K...300K...AND 295K LAYERS SHOW WEAK UPGLIDE(ASCENT) OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... SO THAT MIGHT HELP GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION. 12KM WRF PRINTS OUT A LITTLE QPF WEST OF I-25 TUE AM...BUT THE GFS HAS NONE. PLAN TO STICK WITH VERY LOW POPS...4 PERCENT OR LESS...EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. OUR LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MIGHT BE TOO HIGH AROUND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST. METZE WED THROUGH SAT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. METZE && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 23/17 co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 305 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)... UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER LK HURON...WITH DEEP SFC LOW IN UPSTATE NY/ST LAW RVR VALLEY...PRESSURE GRADIENT QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS SFC HI BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. GUSTY WINDS OVER THE REGION...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35MPH POSSIBLE THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STRONG 250MB JET ROARING AT 140+KTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...THIS JET IS HELPING TO CREATE SOME LIFT AND HAS PRODUCED A LARGE AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM IL NW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THRU THE SHORT TERM...WILL USE RUC TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN BLEND IN WITH THE 12KM WRF/NAM THRU THE REST OF THE PERIOD. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INVOLVE THE WIND AND AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO LESSEN DUE TO THE SFC LOW MOVING FURTHER INTO NE QUEBEC...WINDS WILL DROP TONIGHT TO AROUND OR LESS THAN 10 KTS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE STRONG JET WILL BRING THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...HAVE WENT A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN MOS ACROSS THIS AREA BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS AND A MOS BLEND ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL MOVE START TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS THE SFC HI START TO NUDGE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. SUNDAY...THE JET ENERGY WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION TAKING THE CLOUDS WITH IT AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND TN VALLEY FROM WEST TO EAST. A MAJORITY...IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY MIDDAY...SOME THICKER CIRRUS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS THOUGH INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SFC RIDGING BUILDS DURING THE DAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EVEN MORE...WITH MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. WITH THE TREND OF THE LAST FEW WEEKS...HAVE UNDERCUT MOS SLIGHTLY FOR THE HIGHS...EVEN THOUGH H850 TEMPS ARE RISING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SCHOTT .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... THE PICK OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MONDAY IF YOU LIKE WARM TEMPERATURES. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP MONDAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE GFS AND NAM DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH THE GFS THE FASTER OF THE MODELS AS THE NAM KEEPS A VERY DRY TEXAS FLOW LONGER BEFORE OPENING UP THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER GFS FOR THIS FORECAST AND BEGIN TO MENTION POPS AFTER 06Z TUESDAY OVER THE WEST CWFA. LATEST BUFKIT DATA INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY SO WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.... A MOSTLY DRY BUT COOL PERIOD IS SETTING UP FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PROGRESSING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY TO THE CANADIAN EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LITTLE WAVE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL HOLD PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND BECOME CENTERED OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS THURSDAY... FRIDAY... AND SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S. --JA && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 401 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE WIND POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AND CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. WEAK SHORTWAVES SWEEPING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW ARE OVER WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. A BROAD RIDGE BLANKETS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE A DEEP LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTH PLAINS AND THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTER GRADIENTS BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUST TO 45 MPH MAINLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT PULLING THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CENTRAL PLAINS SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MOIST LAYER BETWEEN 800MB AND 850MB WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...THE SHOWER ACTIVITIES WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN U.P. OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD THE TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE TONIGHT. I PLAN TO STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON THIS. THE LOW WILL PUSH EVEN FARTHER EAST ON SUNDAY TAKING THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH IT. A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE EAST END OF THE U.P. THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL KEEP A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND 850MB AND MID LAYER AT AND ABOVE 500MB. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL NAVIGATE OVER THE U.P. ON MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 850MB WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN AN AREA ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL PUSH INTO THE WEST END OF THE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUS WILL ADJUST THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACCORDINGLY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PASS OVER AREA ON TUESDAY BRINGING IN COLD AIR. A THERMAL TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LOWER THE 850MB TEMPERATURES TO -10C OVER THE WESTERN U.P. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GOING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 850MB AND AN INVERTED V PROFILE BELOW THIS LEVEL. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF LES WHICH COULD OCCUR. ECMWF AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NCEP ENSEMBLE. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SWING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIME IN ON SATURDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL RELOCATE OVER JAMES BAY ON THURSDAY AS A 1025MB RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE RIDGE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE RELOCATING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A NUMBER OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SINCE THE LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MORE LIKELY RECEIVE THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING E 2/3 LK SUPERIOR. WIND ADVISORY MIZ001 4 AM-8 AM EDT SUNDAY. WIND ADVISORY MIZ006 8 AM-8 AM EDT SUNDAY. WIND ADVISORY MIZ007 11 AM-8 AM EDT SUNDAY. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 302 PM CDT SAT OCT 28 2006 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALONG WITH FRONTAL TIMING ON MONDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOW A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. BAND OF CIRRUS ALONG SOUTH EDGE OF ULJ CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FADE TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SURFACE OBS AND MSAS ANALYSIS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS. NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS ARE ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA. BREEZY WINDS AND INFILTRATION OF DRIER AIR HAVE RAISED SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...REAL PUNCH OF DRIER AIR IS STILL WEST OF THE CWA AS EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. RH VALUES ARE STILL IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS OUR CWA...EVEN THE FAR WEST. CONSIDERING THIS AND THAT CONDITIONS WILL START TO COOL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WILL NOT NEED ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE ULJ AXIS PUSHES NORTHEAST WITH ATTENDANT CIRRUS EXITING THE CWA TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL. UNDER CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER WAVE DROPPING INTO THE PAC NW TURNS THE UPPER FLOW ZONAL TO WEAKLY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW...HELPING TO GRADUALLY TURN LOW-LEVEL WINDS FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY. IN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID TEENS AND WITH A NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKY EXPECTED...HIGHS IN THE 70S STILL LOOK ON TRACK. SOUTHWEST WINDS STAY UP A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO KEEP LOW TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A COLD FRONT POISED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...MAKING FOR A BIT OF A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST. THE NAM HAS THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND 18Z...WITH THE GFS A LITTLE SLOWER. THE OTHER FACTOR TEMPERATURE WISE IS THERE LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ON MONDAY. BEST GUESS FOR NOW IS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. WITH UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRY AIR AT LOW-LEVELS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. NORTH WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY AND GIVEN RECENT WARM WEATHER...THIS BRINGS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO MIND. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE RH VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH ON MONDAY TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. .LONG TERM...POST TUESDAY MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE TUESDAY THRU SATURDAY TIME FRAME AS THE CWFA REMAINS IN A VERY DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW. ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SUGGESTS NIL PROBABILITIES. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK CHILLY...AS AFTER INITIAL COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HANGS AROUND AND LEAVES THE AREA IN A WEAK EASTERLY COMPONENT WIND FIELD. NOT FAVORABLE FOR WARMING...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF SUN WILL TAKE THE EDGE. HALLOWEEN NOT LOOKING TOO SPOOKY WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT QUITE COOL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PROJECTED TO MOVE OFF INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW FROM MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE CWFA. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ KB/MLM ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 242 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... NEGATIVE TILT UPR TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH REGION ATTM. ASSOCD SFC CD FNT IS CROSSING REGION ATTM...BUT ALL PRECIP HAS LONG SINCE MOVED OFFSHR WITH MID/UPR LVL DRY SLOT. SKIES ARE GENLY PTLY TO MSTLY SUNNY...WITH WINDS IN THE BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY. HWVR...WINDS THRUT REGION CURRENTLY BLO WIND ADVY CRITERIA...AND THERE IS NOT EVIDENCE IN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OR MODELS THAT WINDS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY INCRS THE REST OF THE AFTN OR THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL NOT RE-ISSUE WIND ADVY. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO REGION AT LO LVLS...AND GRADUAL DROPOFF IN WINDS TNGT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPR 30S INLAND/LWR MD ERN SHORE...AND MID 40S ALONG THE CST. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR TNGT'S LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... DOWNSLOPE WARMING ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL MON- WED...WITH HIGHS MANY AREAS AOA 70 ALL 3 DAYS. COULD SEE AN 80 DEGREE READING INLAND ON TUESDAY...BUT THINK WET GROUND WILL TEMPER WARMING. NEXT CDFNT MOVES THROUGH WED/EARLY THU WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THIS FNT LOOKS LESS OMINOUS FROM THE STANDPOINT OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WOULD BE NICE...GIVEN OUR RECENT VERY WET PERIOD. COOLER AND DRIER FOR THU-SAT. && .AVIATION... VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH WINDY. WINDS SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT FROM THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND FRESHLY DAMPENED SFC. && .MARINE... INITIAL TROF CROSSED THE WATERS EARLIER THIS MORNING BRINGING W/ IT MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS. GALE WARNING HEADLINE REMAINED IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH MUCH OF THE AREA HAS DROPPED INTO A LULL BTW S/WVS (DOWN TO HIGH SCA CRITERIA) HOWEVER...AS SFC LOW CONTS ROTATING N AND W OF NEW ENGLAND...MOVING N OF NEW BRUNSWICK...WHATS BEST DESCRIBED AS A SECONDARY SURGE, THE WINDS INCREASE SHARPLY BTW NOW AND 03Z TONIGHT. 925 MB WINDS RISE FROM 20-25 KT TO AS HIGH AS 40 KTS ACCORDING TO THE 12Z NAM AND GFS. LATEST RUC ALSO CONFIRMS THIS. SO THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED THE GALE FLAGS TO CONT INTO TONIGHT. AS FOR SUN MORN...WINDS WILL SLACKEN FROM W/SW TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. NORTHERN COAST WILL REMAIN IN GALE THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS WILL LESSEN FINALLY TO ENACT A SCA INSTEAD. SCA HEADLINES FOR CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND WILL LIKELY END EARLY MON WITH HIGH PRES BUILT OVER THE WATERS...WITH SEAS HOPEFULLY NOT FAR BEHIND. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ630>633-656-658 UNTIL 5 AM SUNDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630>633-656-658 FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM SUNDAY. ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ650-652-654 UNTIL 3 PM SUNDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ650-652-654 FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 9 PM SUNDAY. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...SAMMLER AVIATION...CURRY MARINE...FLECHTNER va