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ObjectivesThe Aviation Forecasts: Requirements and Applications Branch develops requirements for and evaluates the utility of advanced software tools for the aviation community: product generation and grid interaction tools for aviation weather forecasters; quality assessment tools for aviation forecasters, researchers and developers, and program leaders; and flight planning tools for aviation decision-makers such as pilots and airline dispatchers.Other functions of the branch include 1) serving as the focal point for coordinating activities with the FAA Aviation Weather Research (AWR) program and the U.S. Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), organizations which fund our development of forecaster tools; 2) leading the AWR Product Development Team for the Aviation Gridded Forecast System (AGFS); and 3) facilitating projects that provide the Air Force with globally relocatable, high-resolution atmospheric analyses using the Air Force's global datasets. Product Generation and Grid Interaction Tools The purpose of this work is to develop software tools that will enable forecasters at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) in Kansas City, Missouri, to efficiently generate aviation forecasts in text, graphics, and grids. This work supports AWC's commitment to use model forecasts and algorithms as the starting point for generating aviation warnings and forecasts. (Pilot observations now serve as the starting point.) The tools will run within the NWS Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). Quality Assessment Tools Verification software tools are being developed that will enable: 1) researchers and developers to assess the quality (e.g., accuracy, reliability and bias) of aviation-impact variables (AIVs) such as icing and turbulence; 2) AWC forecasters to assess in near real time the quality of the products (e.g., AIRMETs) that they generate and the "guidance" (i.e., automatic model forecasts, postprocessing algorithms, and statistical techniques) that they use to help generate those products; and 3) program leaders to monitor the quality of AIV algorithms and products for aviation decision-makers. The Real Time Verification System (RTVS), which is being developed to accomplish these objectives, is a versatile, easy-to-use system designed for grid and forecast quality assessment, long-term evaluation, and forecaster assistance. RTVS capabilities include real-time data ingest, and grid-to- observation and forecast-to-observation interpolation. As data become available in real time, the RTVS accesses observations, model grids, and NWS forecasts, interpolates the grids and forecasts to the observation locations, and saves the information necessary for statistical computations. Results of those computations can be accessed via the RTVS graphical user interface. Another significant use for RTVS is in making long-term studies of the quality of NWS forecast and model-based products and providing "quick looks" at the accuracy of products issued only hours earlier. Long-term studies will provide greater accuracy and more versatility for statistical verification analysis, and will provide valuable feedback to NWS aviation forecasters regarding the quality of guidance and value-added AIVs. Flight Planning Tools FSL is developing software tools that will enable aviation decision makers to access via the Internet text, graphics, and grids of up-to-the-minute observations and forecasts of high-resolution AIVs tailored to specific flight routes. The Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) is being developed jointly by FSL, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and AWC; funding is provided by the FAA Aviation Weather Research program, and maintenance is provided by the NWS. The ADDS is currently available on the Web here. Figure 51 shows the top-level user interface for the ADDS.
Figure 51. The Aviation Weather Center Internet home page for the Aviation Digital Data Service. U.S. Air Force Weather Agency Project
FSL collaborates with AFWA and the Global Weather Center (GWC) to provide
software systems, meteorological science, and systems integration support to
the Global Theater Weather Analysis and Prediction System (GTWAPS) program. A
centerpiece to this project is the development of a worldwide relocatable
mesoscale analysis and prediction system whose components range from data
ingest and analysis to methods of forecast data visualization. This work
supports the October 1997 consolidation of all sections of the Air Weather
Service into AFWA, with headquarters at Offutt Air Force Base, home of the
Global Weather Center (GWC). FSL's technology, along with this restructuring,
is an important part of the Air Force's re-engineering program that began in
1996.
Three main accomplishments occurred during the past year in this area: • Developed (in conjunction with the FSL Systems Development Division and the AD Development and Deployment Branch) the initial versions of AWIPS software tools that generate AIRMETs and convective SIGMETs. • Trained AWC forecasters, managers, and the Experimental Forecast Facility staff to use AWIPS and the initial versions of the tools. • Continued to identify and prioritize requirements by supporting an FSL development meteorologist who spends considerable time at AWC becoming familiar with forecasting operations. Quality Assessment Tools In July 1998, version 2 of the RTVS was implemented at the AWC. This version included 1) the capability to assess the quality of nonconvective SIGMETs, standard convective SIGMET outlooks, convective SIGMET outlooks with enhanced temporal resolution, and several icing algorithms; 2) the enhanced capability for computing statistics such as verifying products using all voice pilot reports (PIREPs) or only moderate-severe or greater PIREPs; 3) the enhanced capability for assessing the quality of AIRMETs for IFR conditions; and 4) an initial tool that enables forecasters to assess the quality of their products in near real time. In September another version of the RTVS was implemented at the AWC; version 3 included an enhanced tool for assessing products in near real time. Additionally, we conducted a seminar for AWC forecasters regarding verification concepts and methods. Flight Planning Tools The second version of ADDS was implemented last September at the AWC. This version (running on dual Pentium Pro 450 MHz processors and using the LINUX operating system) enables users to acquire via the Internet pregenerated and Java-based interactive graphics of meteorological observations (e.g., voice pilot reports) and forecasts (AIRMETs and convective SIGMETs). ADDS also enables users to acquire graphics of icing, turbulence, and convection forecasts generated by advanced forecasting algorithms that are being developed by the FAA Product Development teams. U.S. Air Force Weather Agency Project
During 1998, the main focus was on upgrading the Local Analysis and Prediction
System (LAPS) to provide hourly high-resolution meteorological analyses (via a
relocatable window) over any part of the world. Through the Forecast Research
Division's work, LAPS can now assimilate surface and upper air observations,
and geostationary satellite imagery from AFWA's database. LAPS is now running
in nine worldwide relocatable, resizeable windows. (Refer to the FRD section in this report for more information.)
During 1999, development of the tools for generating AIRMETs and convective SIGMETs will be completed and transferred to AWC in support of operations there. We also plan to begin development of software tools that will generate area forecasts, products that focus on clouds and weather conditions over areas as large as several states. Quality Assessment Tools The focus of work during 1999 will be to enhance the capability to verify convective SIGMETs, assess the quality of 14 algorithms that generate forecasts of turbulence, and to enhance the capability for AWC forecasters to assess products in near real time. Flight Planning Tools Work in this area will include enabling ADDS to generate route-specific graphics of key AIVs. Also, we will face the significant challenge of developing data-serving and Java-client techniques that will enable the rapid generation of these graphics. U.S. Air Force Weather Agency Project This Requirements and Applications Branch will submit proposals to AFWA for work to support their continued re-engineering efforts as well as programs identified for 2000 and beyond. An evaluation of AWFA's forecast workstations at Offut AFB is planned for Fiscal Year 1999, as well as an investigation to identify the quality assessment activities needed at AFWA that will be included in the RTVS. |