/C FXAK62 PAFC 271417
ANCAFDALU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST MON JAN 26 2004

.DISCUSSION...

DEPENDING ON HOW YOU SLICE IT THE 4 TO 5 WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO
REMAIN IN CHARGE. THE BIG CHANGE IS THE SPLIT ANCHOR LOWS OVER CANADA
AND GREENLAND ARE GOING TO CONSOLIDATE AND HEAD BACK TO THE NORTH
POLE AND THEN BEGIN TO POKE DOWN INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
INTERIOR. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INFAMOUS WEST COAST RIDGE WILL
FINALLY MAKE AN APPEARANCE BUT BE TOO WEAK TO GREATLY IMPACT THE
WEATHER.  THIS GLOBAL CHANGE HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST THREE
DAYS AND EACH RUN CONTINUES TO BUILD ON THE PREVIOUS ONE.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR ALASKA IS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
HELPING TO STEER DRY AND COLD MOST OF THE STATE WILL SHOOT TO SIBERIA
WHILE A TROF BEHIND THE BUILDING WEST COAST RIDGE GETS INTO PLACE.
THIS WILL GIVE US A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS PULSES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR TO
INFILTRATE FURTHER INTO ALASKA.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWS A SLEW OF LOWS IN A COMPLEX OVER
THE WESTERN PART OF ALASKA. PRECIPITATION IS ROTATING AROUND THE LOWS
AND IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE
ALONG WITH THE ALEUTIANS. KODIAK CONTINUES TO GET THE WORST OF IT
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CONSTANT SNOWFALL. THE RAIN SNOW LINE CONTINUES
TO FLIRT WITH KODIAK ISLAND SO A MIXED BAG IS LIKELY BE ON TAP FOR
TODAY. 

ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IS SHOWING A NICE BAND HEADING TOWARD ANCHORAGE
THE DYNAMICS...THANKS IN LARGE PART TO A JET HEADING FURTHER
SOUTH...SHOULD KEEP MOST OF IT SOUTH OF THE INTERIOR. COASTAL
SECTIONS WILL LIKELY GET BRUSHED WITH SOME ACTIVITY BUT IT SHOULD NOT
BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE IF
ANOTHER SMALL SCALE LOW SPINS UP AND HEADS NORTH OF THE AXIS OF
DEVELOPMENT.  RIGHT NOW GVAR AND WV DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNS OF THAT
HAPPENING.

MODEL WISE...THE ONLY LARGE DIFFERENCE IS WITH HOW THE LOW SOUTH OF
KODIAK THIS MORNING IS HANDLED. MESOETA HANDLES IT BY PUSHING IT INTO
THE GULF AND GOING WITHOUT ANOTHER LOW UNTIL NORTH OF SHEMYA. THE
OTHER BIG THREE MODELS THROW AN ADDITIONAL LOW OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND THEN BRISTOL BAY. CONSIDER HOW MANY LOWS ARE IN THE
COMPLEX AND HOW THEY CONTINUE TO FORM...THE MESOETA SOLUTION IS NOT
PREFERRED. THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE LOW ON THE MESOETA ALSO
APPEARS OFF. THE UKMET LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST OVERALL HANDLE OF ALL
OF THE LOWS.
 
.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE. 
MARINE...HURRICANE 3C.
         STORM GULF 2B 2C 3A 3B 3C 4.
         GALES BERING 8 14.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 3A 3C 14 4 4A.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

BELL JAN 27