FXUS65 KMSO 190930
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
228 AM MST MON JAN 19 2004

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND UPSTREAM RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW PRECIPITATION
SLOWLY ON THE DECREASE AT 09Z. HOWEVER...A FEW PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER CLARK FORK AND FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEY
REGIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE AREA FOR HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. UPSTREAM DATA HAS
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM ALONG THE OR COAST THAT MOVES TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TRACK WOULD NOT BRING MUCH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO OUR REGION...HOWEVER WEAK NORTHWEST UPSLOPE WINDS AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR A WHILE
LONGER TODAY. MORE STABLE AIR MASS TONIGHT WILL PUT AN END TO ALL
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK STRONGER THAN EVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL REASSERT
THEMSELVES WITH WIDESPREAD FOG RETURNING WHILE CAPPING TEMPERATURES
AND LIMITING MIXING. COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE
HIGHER VALLEYS BUT MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:  THE EXTENDED GFS AND UKMET
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED OVER LAST 3 MODEL RUNS AND ARE NOW
SLOWER WITH BRINGING THE NEXT SYSTEM IN...KEEPING A STRONG RIDGE
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THUS HAVE DECREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY...
TO ZERO POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  NEXT SYSTEM SYSTEM
STILL FORECAST TO BE ARCTIC EVENT ON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST.
MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM/BOLDT
LONG TERM/RPN