For Immediate Release: October 27, 2004
Contact: Steven Hall: 970-244-3052
Duane Spencer: 303-239-3753
Vaughn Whatley: 303-239-3766 
 

BLM Q & A FACT SHEET
Roan Plateau Planning Area 
Reasonable Foreseeable Development (RFD)
 

1. What is an RFD?

An RFD (Reasonable Foreseeable Development) report is a projection of potential oil and gas activities for a limited geographic area, in terms of number of wells, amount of production and associated impacts (pads, roads, compressor stations, air, etc.).  The projections are based on a technical analysis of the latest available geologic and engineering information for the area and how much oil and/or gas may be present and able to be recovered by today’s drilling and production technology. 

The RFD projects a maximum development scenario of activity assuming all potentially productive areas can be explored under standard lease terms and conditions, in other words the maximum amount of activity that could possibly be expected to happen with the least amount of restriction.  This allows BLM, through its environmental review, to analyze how to minimize impacts on other resource values by imposing mitigation measures. It also allows BLM to examine how restrictions on oil and gas activity to protect other values would impact the benefits to the public of developing the oil and gas.  The RFD excludes areas designated as closed to leasing by law, regulation or executive order.  The RFD covers a period that is coincident with the Resource Management Plan (RMP) (usually 15 - 20 years).  The RFD is not expected to cover the entire life span of an area's development.

 

2. What is the purpose of an RFD?

An RFD is an integral part of the land use planning and environmental review process for areas where there is oil and gas potential. It provides the basis for analyzing the potential environmental impacts on other resource values and on the public, given the expected oil and gas operations that might occur in the planning area.  As importantly, it is used to determine the potential impacts on the benefits to the public from oil and gas production, such as decreased royalty revenue and employment, when it is restricted at various levels, including no development, to protect other values. This allows complete disclosure to the public for resource tradeoffs in BLM’s land use planning and environmental analysis process.  

3. Who prepares an RFD?

Geologists and Petroleum Engineers

4. What is the relationship between the RFD and the RMP?

The RFD is a technical report typically referenced in the RMP.  It is used to support development of land use management alternatives and their ensuing environmental and socio-economic impact projections within the RMP.  Under each alternative in the RMP, which identify different levels of oil and gas development, the RFD is adjusted to reflect designations, management practices and environmental protection measures.  Under each alternative, the new adjusted level of projected oil and gas activity then leads to an analysis of related environmental and socio-economic effects in the "Environmental Consequences" section of the RMP.  An RFD is not a decision document; only a summary of the RFD report is typically included in the land use plan.  A copy of the report is made available to the public for viewing when the draft plan is released for public comment. 

5. Does anyone ever check to see that the RFD projection was correct?  If an error occurs, how is it corrected?

To ensure BLM complies with provisions of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), the actual level of oil and gas activity is monitored to ensure that cumulative environmental impacts are within predicted levels.  Supplement, revision or amendment to the RMP is needed when the net predicted level of environmental impacts is or is expected to be substantially exceeded. When appropriate, a new environmental review process is initiated with full public participation.

6. What are the components of an RFD?

The following elements may be included in an RFD; however, professional judgment and management guidance is used to determine the appropriate level of detail:

  • Estimate of future activity (number of wells, number of well pads, miles of roads, infrastructure, etc.) 
  • Estimate of surface disturbance in acres from drill pads, access roads, and pipelines  
  • Estimate of production volumes 
  • Description of geology that supports the predicted future activity
  • Past and present exploration activity (geophysical, exploration drilling success, new field discoveries)
  • Past and present development activity (leasing, spacing, drilling/completion statistics, directional/horizontal drilling practices, oil/gas/water production, well and development costs, gas/oil prices, production equipment, etc.)
    Oil and gas occurrence and development potential (areas of high, medium, low and no potential, other RFDs reviewed)
  • RFD Baseline Scenario Assumptions
     

7.  If the Energy Policy Conservation Act (EPCA) study shows the Uinta/Piceance basin (UPB) has a natural gas resource base of 28.8 Trillion Cubic Feet (TCF), how can the RFD for Roan Plateau Planning Area (RPPA) show that is contains 53% of that amount (15.4 TCF)?  

The methodology used in the EPCA report is outlined in Appendix 5 of the report, but in general, it is based upon broad geologic data, statistical analysis and modeling of various factors, which are then used to generate resource estimates. This is comparable to taking a census that identifies 300 million people living within the boundaries of the United States, but we know the population is not spread evenly across the country – there are population centers and areas where population is sparse. In the same way, the USGS analysis cannot be construed that the oil and gas reserve estimates are distributed evenly over the whole Uinta-Piceance Basin. Oil and gas is concentrated where the geologic environment is favorable to the trapping of oil and/or gas. This process is designed for analysis of broad geologic basins within total petroleum systems, not specific sites or very limited geographic areas within a basin.

BLM’s analysis is akin to looking in a very detailed manner at a very specific population area of the United States under the analogy above. BLM utilized site specific and the most up-to-date reservoir data available to calculate the potential natural gas resource under the planning area. There has been considerable new drilling on both private and federal lands in this area over the past 3 years, which provides BLM updated technical information on the subsurface geology. BLM has extensive knowledge and experience with reservoir data within this specific area because of its reservoir management and oil and gas conservation responsibilities for Federal Lands under the Mineral Leasing Act.   

In the RFD, determination of gas resources was done with specific well data that had been accumulated and analyzed by the present operator, Department of Energy (DOE) and BLM. Gas reserves used in the RFD are supported by prior DOE studies, as well as by Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC).

8. If the EPCA study reserve estimate is incorrect for the planning area, why compare the RPPA resources to them?  Wouldn't it be better to extrapolate the RPPA resources across the entire Uinta/Piceance Basin?

The reservoir data BLM used for determining the natural gas resources for the Roan Plateau Planning Area are site specific to that area, so application to the entire Uinta/Piceance basin is not valid.  The comparison to the EPCA numbers was provided to put the numbers into context with current published reports. 

10. Is it really necessary to analyze potential cumulative impacts?

The National Environmental Policy Act requires federal agencies to analyze the potential cumulative impacts of Federal decisions.

11. Do BLM RFD figures overestimate the amount of potential natural gas underneath the Roan Plateau to support the rationale for drilling in the area?

The recoverable resources were arrived at with sound geology and engineering.  The numbers are accurate based on the available data.

12. Simply stated, how did BLM reach its Roan Plateau RFD figures?

The amount of natural gas resource for the planning area was calculated using site specific projected well reserve data for the Mesaverde and Wasatch formations and extrapolating those volumes to the entire planning area based upon well spacing.  BLM obtained the well reserve data from various DOE reports, as well as from evidence entered for spacing applications filed with the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission and approved by BLM.  The projected number of wells was calculated using well spacing adjusted for areas with steep slopes, weather limitations, access limitations, the RMP timeframe, and rig availability. The surface disturbance was estimated assuming some of the wells would be co-located and directionally drilled.

13. A number of years have passed since the EPCA Piceance Basin findings were issued.  What new information has BLM learned since?

Regardless of the study, all findings of the scientific community support that the Piceance Basin contains a large amount of natural gas resource.  Accordingly, there have been numerous studies and pilot projects aimed at extracting more of this volume.  Because the reservoir is highly discontinuous, all studies have found that increased well density, currently 10 acres in some places, is needed to effectively drain the gas from the reservoir.  The development of the reservoir in this portion of the Piceance Basin is still relatively new and well density continues to evolve.  This rapid evolution of well density has resulted in the numerous Piceance Basin natural gas resources studies becoming dated in a rather short time. 

14. How has BLM responded to The Wilderness Society's concerns?

BLM has provided the organization with the methodology used to calculate the natural gas resource figure for the RPPA, as well as provided the background DOE and COGCC data used. 

15. How long is a drilling rig on the well?

On the average, drilling a directional well takes about 30 days on the lower plateau.  It is estimated that it will take 30 days to drill a vertical well on top of the plateau.  Because the average life of the well is about 30 years, this represents .23 percent of the life of a well.  In comparison, just under a day is .23 percent of a year.

16. How many houses could the technically recoverable resources (15.4 TCF) and the Roan RFD Resources (3.9 TCF) heat?

An average house uses 100 MCF/year.  So, 15.4 TCF figure represents 154 million houses that could be heated in one year.  The 3.9 TCF figure represents 39 million houses that could be heated in one year.

17. Can you briefly give some background about the Roan Plateau and summarize the current controversy?

The Roan Plateau rises 3,000 feet above the Colorado River Valley, providing an impressive backdrop to the I-70 corridor in west central Colorado. The area was once slated for intensive oil shale development, but was transferred to the BLM in 1997 by an Act of Congress.  The land use planning effort has involved the local community and the State of Colorado to help determine the future management of this scenic area that is also home to some of the nation's most productive natural gas resources.

The controversy centers on opposition from the environmental community to drilling on top of the Roan Plateau. Opponents argue that the natural resource values, including some rare plants, riparian areas and scenery, are too valuable to allow any gas exploration on top of the plateau. The local community has mixed views, with some welcoming the economic development energy exploration brings while others are concerned they might lose a relatively unknown recreation area, popular for big game hunting. In addition, Garfield County is experiencing a boom in natural gas exploration and production, causing some concern among local government about an additional "booming" energy development area. The estimated technically recoverable natural gas in the Roan Plateau area is 15.4 trillion cubic feet.

18. What are BLM's plans for the Roan Plateau and does BLM have an estimate for when the draft plan will be announced?

A DRAFT Resource Management Plan/Environmental Impact Statement is scheduled to be released this fall. The preferred alternative currently under consideration will strike a balance between meeting the concerns of local and state government while developing needed, available

Technical Addendum:

In the RFD for the RPPA, determination of resources was done with specific well reserve data that had been accumulated and analyzed by the present operator, Department of Energy (DOE) and BLM.  Mesaverde (MV) reserves used in the RFD are 1.17 Billion Cubic Feet (BCF)/Well which is fully supported by prior DOE studies as well as by evidence entered into spacing hearings conducted by the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) and approved by BLM.  Wasatch reserves used in the RFD are 0.7 BCF/Wasatch Well which is also supported by prior DOE studies.  The findings of the DOE studies have been reviewed and supported by the BLM.  Using the 1.17 BCF/MV well, the 0.7 BCF/Wasatch Well well, that MV development spacing is at 10 acres, Wasatch development spacing is at 160 acres (also fully supported by the COGCC and BLM), and the RPPA is 127,000 acres, one can estimate technically recoverable resources (TRR)  to be about 15.4 TCF.   The RFD also provides that over a 20 year period of completed wells will represent 3.9 TCF. 

 

-BLM-