FXUS61 KALY 121206 AAA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2004


DISC...UPDATE TO ADD SNOW ACCUM FOR EASTERN ALB GROUP.



ATMOSPERE STILL FAIRLY BUT MOISTENING UP. TWEAKED NEAR TERM FORECAST 
FOR THIS MORNING TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER...TEMPS AND POPS.
  
**********PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 2:10 PM***********************

.DISCUSSION...RADAR DETECTING PRECIPITATION BUT IT IS NOT REACHING 
THE GROUND. ATMOSPHERE VERY DRY...AS NOTED BY ALB AND OKX'S 00Z 
SOUNDINGS. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST UNITED STATES 
THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS IT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS 
TIME WHICH IS DEPICTED WELL BY MODELS. THE SURFACE SYSTEM NOT AS
STRONG AS LAST NIGHT'S MODELS WERE INDICATING. THE MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT. BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FORECAST AREA WILL 
BE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 12Z TO 18Z WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS 
NORTH...THEN WILL HAVE LESSER POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH POPS 
RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS TONIGHT DUE TO SOME LAKE 
INFLUENCE WITH WNW-NW FLOW. WINDS PICK UP WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT THIS 
MORNING AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. WINDS GUSTS INTO THE 30S 
EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLDER AIR WILL 
REALLY BEGIN TO POUR IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE 
MERCURY WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.     

WEEKEND LOOKING GOOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOVES ACROSS 
SHIFTING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BUT REMAIN 
A BIT BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES 
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY.    

MODELS HAVE COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR STORM MONDAY...NORTHERN 
BRANCH SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG UNITED STATES/CANADIAN 
BORDER PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP 
THROUGH REGION IN THE MORNING PRODUCING RAIN. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN 
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AND AT NIGHT RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS IN 
POST STORM FLOW. 

MINOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED GRIDS...OVERALL LOOKS REASONABLE.

.AVIATION...EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR MUCH OF THE DAY 
TODAY DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN. FROM ALBANY NORTH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO 
THE LATE EVENING WITH COOL AND MOIST FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF 
THE LOW RESULTING IN A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK AROUND 3000-3500 MSL. 
FARTHER SOUTH THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD RECOVER TO 
VFR BELOW A BROKEN LAYER AT 5000 FT BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE 
HUDSON VALLEY EAST. WOULD EXPECT MVFR/OCNL IFR CONDITIONS OVR THE 
WRN PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS. BY MID MORNING SATURDAY 
MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT THE MOHAWK VALLEY WHICH WILL 
PROBABLY STILL HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS FROM OFF THE LAKE. 

.HYDROLOGY...THE SCHROON RIVER LEVELED OFF SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING BUT 
WILL AGAIN SLOWLY CREEP UPWARD THRU THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF 
MORE MELTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW OTHER RIVERS SUCH AS THE 
HEADWATERS OF THE SCHOHARIE AND ESOPUS ARE ALSO UP VERY SLIGHTLY 
FROM MELTING SNOW IN MOUNTAIN AREAS.  NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER 
THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY...AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS DROPPED THE 
EXPECTED PRECIP AMOUNTS TO ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THIS 
MIGHT CAUSE SOME MINOR PROBLEMS WITH MELTING SNOW AND ICE NORTH OF 
THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT ELSEWHERE THINGS SHOULD BE OK.  THERE IS 
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME WON'T GET TOO 
EXCITED ABOUT IT. RIVERS OF MOST CONCERN AT THIS TIME ARE THE HUDSON 
BETWEEN NORTH CREEK AND HADLEY...THE MOOSE RIVER...AND THE EAST 
CANADA CREEK.   

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.ALY...NONE.

$$