FXUS61 KALY 200158
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY, NY    
1000 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2004


.UPDATE...MOST ACTIVITY HAS DIED.  BORDERLINE SEVERE STORM SCHOHARIE 
CTY.  UPDATES OUT


.SYNOPSIS...500 HPA TROUGH OVER WESTERN NEW YORK HEADING EAST. 
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW
IN NORTHERN QUEBEC TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. 
&&


.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BREAKING
OUT TO OUR WEST. ALSO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS POPPING UP OVER HIGHER
ELEVATION REGIONS. THE CONVECTION OUT WEST APPEARS TO LINE UP WITH
THE 500 HPA TROF AND COLD CORE. IT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING SOME
WHAT AS IT MOVES EAST. WILL GO WITH SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO THE WEST
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND ALSO OVER THE BERKS/GREEN MTNS...WITH 
HIGH CHANCE POPS OVR THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NWRN CT...FOR LATE 
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY FOG DUE TO RESIDUAL
MOISTURE.  WILL KEEP EARLY TUESDAY DRY FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FRONT PASSES THRU THE 
REGION...AGAIN FOLLOWED BY PATCHY FOG IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ON WED A WEAK HIGH DROPS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA...BUT ITS EFFECTS
ARE RATHER SHORT LIVED AS THE CIRCULATION RETURNS TO A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION BRINGING IN WARM AND HUMID AIR. THURSDAY NIGHT THE GFS 
DEVELOPS A LOW OVER VIRGINIA JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE TROF EXTENDING
FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE TROF ROTATES
EAST FRIDAY AS A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A 
STRONG COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION FRIDAY WITH GOOD FORCING JUST
AHEAD OF IT. THE GFS PUTS THE TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT FROM
CONCORD NH THRU NEW YORK CITY SW TO RALEIGH AT 00Z SATURDAY AND 
THE TROF CONTINUES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE CANADIAN HIGH 
BUILDS IN AND TAKES OVER OUR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.  THE TROF
IS FORECAST TO STALL OFF THE EAST COAST BUT LOOKS TO BE FAR 
ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER ASIDE FROM BRINGING IN
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  ON SUNDAY NIGHT MARINE AIR BEGINS TO 
WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. A HIGH OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND A LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG WITH
AN UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES RESULTS IN WARM MOIST AIR
OFF THE GULF STREAM BEING FORCED UPSLOPE OVER THE APPLACIANS
AND OVER THE COOLER AIR WEST OF THE APPALACIANS. 
&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT IN SHRA/TSRA WHERE CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR. 
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH NIGHT MAINLY DUE TO 
VISIBILITIES. EXPECTATION IS FOR SKIES TO REMAIN BKN/OVC THROUGH THE 
NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS REFLECTED IN POU TAF...WHERE SKIES GO SCT... 
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR DUE TO BR. MVFR/VFR FOR TUESDAY 
MORNING. WINDS LIGHT THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BRING ENOUGH RAINFALL TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. 
HOWEVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY THERE MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE
SLOW MOVING OR FOLLOWING EACH OTHER IN A LINE. WIDESPREAD HEAVY 
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME STREAMS OR SMALLER RIVERS COULD
EXPERIENCE SHARP RISES.  
&&


.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE
VT...NONE
MA...NONE
CT...NONE
&&

$$

SYNOPTIC/HYDRO...KILPATRICK
AVIATION...OKEEFE