FXUS61 KRLX 040818 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
329 AM EDT MON OCT 4 2004...CORECTED TO ADD ADVISORY CODING

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY.  FEW CLOUDS ARE 
EXPECTED WITH THIS...PATCHY MID DECK WITH FRONT AND PATCHY UPSLOPE 
CLOUDS IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW FOR A TIME IN THE WAKE OF THE 
FRONT TONIGHT.  DRY WITH SUNSHINE TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
ACROSS MISSOURI TO OHIO.  SOME MIXING CUMULUS IN THE MOUNTAINS 
SHOULD BE EXTENT OF CLOUDINESS.

GOOD MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT TODAY AND EVEN WITH AND JUST BEHIND FRONT 
INTO THIS EVENING.  THIS WILL BRING DOWN GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY 
NORTH.  MIXING SHOULD ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REALIZE MAV VALUES 
FOR HIGHS TODAY...FOLLOWED CLOSELY...EVEN RAISED A BIT AT A COUPLE 
OF SITES.

USED MOSTLY A BLEND OF THE NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS 
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THE LOW FWC VALUES FOR HIGHS TUESDAY WERE GIVEN 
LESS WEIGHT. 

WILL CODE UP A FROST ADVISORY FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN OHIO 
COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH BUILDS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR WIND TO 
GO CALM...ALLOWING RADIATION PROCESS TO TAKE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 
MID 30S AND ALLOW FROST TO FORM.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT MON OCT 4 2004

AVIATION (06Z-06Z)

LIFR FG AT TIMES OVERNIGHT ALL SITES EXCEPT ALONG OHIO RIVER...WHERE 
NO WORSE THAN IFR CAN BE EXPECTED HTS AND NO WORSE THAN MVFR PKB IN 
DRIER AIR.

FOG SHOULD BURN OFF AND MIX OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUN RISE THIS MORNING 
AS DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM 
NORTHWEST.  VFR BALANCE OF PERIOD DESPITE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT THIS 
EVENING.  NO VIS RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 06Z TUE.  SCATTERED HIGH 
STRATOCUMULUS TO LOW ALTOCUMULUS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING MAY BE 
BRIEFLY BROKEN AS FRONT ROLLS THROUGH.  MOUNTAIN SITES WILL SEE 
BROKEN LAYER JUST ABOVE 3KFT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT 
AFTER SUN DOWN THROUGH 06Z TUE.

WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY WITH THE FRONT...OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST 
VEERING TO WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...THAN BRIEFLY 
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING.  WIND 
SHOULD DIMINISH TO LIGHT NORTH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

STILL THE THREAT OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A 
HARD FREEZE LIKELY IN SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  MUCH LIKE 
PREVIOUS GRAVEYARD SHIFTS PLAN ON HIGHLIGHTING THIS IN THE HWO.  

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE PARKS ITSELF OVER WV FOR THE REMAINDER 
OF THE WEEK WITH PWATS BELOW 0.40 INCHES...SO NO PRECIP EXPECTED 
JUST FROSTY NIGHTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.  A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO 
CROSS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE SEPARATES 
THIS FROM PREVIOUS TWO.  ENOUGH MOISTURE IS FCST TO WARRANT SCHC/CHC 
POPS FM UNI TO PKB TO EKN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF 
SATURDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 935 PM EDT SUN OCT 3 2004

SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...

MOST CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES.  
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH WILL MAKE 
ACHIEVING FROST-TYPE TEMPERATURES DIFFICULT.  WILL LEAVE ADVISORY UP 
THOUGH...THINKING THAT SCATTERED FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE 
DEEPER VALLEYS ON THIS IDEAL RADIATIONAL NIGHT.  VALLEY FOG STILL A 
GOOD POSSIBILITY.  TEMPERATURES NEEDED SOME MINOR TWEAKING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
VA...NONE.
KY...NONE.

OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 500 AM EDT TUESDAY UNTIL 800 AM EDT TUESDAY 
FOR ZONES OHZ066>067...OHZ075...OHZ083>084.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TRM