AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 345 PM PST MON FEB 16 2004 .DISCUSSION...BUSY DAY AS MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO EFFECT THE REGION. 12Z MESOETA CAME IN WITH THE SURPRISE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL WAVE...PRODUCING A STRONG SURFACE LOW TRACKING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. MESO PROGS AN 80 KT H8 JET MAX TO CRUISE ADJACENT TO THE NORTH COAST BY EARLY TUE...MOVING INTO THE SW OR COAST BY AFTERNOON. 12Z GFS HAD A RATHER FEEBLE LOW TRACKING FURTHER INLAND...RESULTING IN 30 KT WINDS AT BEST FOR THE NORTH COAST. A COMPARISON OF SATELLITE IR AND WV IMAGERY WITH ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS REVEALED THE ETA TO BE THE BETTER PERFORMER...DESPITE ITS OUTLIER STATUS. 18Z RUN OF MESO CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SURFACE DEVELOPMENT AND IS BACKED UP BY RUC. 18Z GFS STILL WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH...BUT IS PICKING UP ON THE STRONGER SOLUTION. EXACT TRACK OF LOW WILL DETERMINE WHERE AND WHEN HIGHEST WINDS WILL FALL. HAVE ISSUED HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NORTH COAST AND INTERIOR...ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. EXPOSED POINTS ALONG COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE POTENTIAL GUSTS IN THE 60-70 MPH RANGE TOMORROW MORNING. HEAVY RAINS ARE PROBLEMATIC AS WELL...WITH MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR TODAY. MORE HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH INTENSIFYING WAVE...FOR EXPECTED STORM TOTALS IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING HEAVY RAINS IN AN AREA BETWEEN WILLOW CREEK AND REDWOOD NTL PARK...WITH 6 HOUR TOTALS LIKELY APPROACHING 2-3 INCHES. HAVE ISSUED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORY TO COVER THE LIKELY FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES. CURRENT HYDROLOGIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED FOR THE EEL AND NAVARRO RIVERS. HAVE ADDITIONAL CONCERN AS HEAVY RAINS TOMORROW FALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...LEADING TO ENHANCED RUNOFF POTENTIAL. MODELS STILL SHOWING BIG DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO UPSTREAM SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...BUT CONTINUED HIGH POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE UNTIL SHORT BREAK ON THU AS RIDGE PUSHES IN. MORE WET WEATHER PROGGED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THOUGH SHORT TERM MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF EXTENDED EVENTS. .SYNOPSIS...RAIN COVERING THE AREA WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS TUESDAY MORNING. A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THURSDAY. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH WIND WARNING...REDWOOD COAST AND NORTH COAST INERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING WIND ADVISORY...NORTH TRINITY AND MENDOCINO COAST AND INTERIOR THROUGH TUE MORNING. GALE WARNING PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA OUT 60 NM. FLOOD ADVISORY...CAZ001-076 THROUGH TUESDAY HIGH SURF ADVISORY CAZOO1-02 AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. $$ ROSE ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 940 PM EST MON FEB 16 2004 A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GULF STATES AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS OVER THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE SLOWLY FALLEN INTO THE MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OFFSHORE WINDS AND SEAS HAVE LOWERED CONSIDERABLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE AREA AND SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 10 PERCENT POPS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD HANDLE THESE SPRITZES...IF THEY ARE EVEN REACHING THE GROUND. LOW CEILINGS WILL PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. ZFP LOOKS TO BE ON LINE AND WILL UPDATE WORDING IN THE CWF FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED. .TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. && $$ BOLINSKI PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.************************************************ .SYNOPSIS...WV/IR ANIMATION SHOWS A PARADE OF UPPER SYSTEMS. ONE QUICKLY DEPARTING THE NC COAST...ANOTHER OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS & A MORE POTENT ONE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE PACIFIC COAST. OUR CWFA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS UNDER SWLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDE A DEVELOPING WEDGE FROM LEESIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO ERN GA & WEAK TROUGH FROM NRN GA INTO AL. MOISTURE WAS TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION ~900 MB W/ SUBSIDENCE ABOVE. ONSHORE FLOW OFF ATLANTIC AIDING IN MOISTURE ADVECTION RESULTING IN STRATOCU CEILINGS FROM 2500-3000 FT. LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION & CLOUD COVER HOLDING TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...& HAVE LOWERED TODAY'S MAX TEMP GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...NE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 10 KTS W/ SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ETA AT 12Z WRT UPPER PATTERN. THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS IT TRACKS EWD...REACHING THE ERN CONUS LATE TUE/EARLY EWD. THE GFS DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WED MORN & THE ETA WED AFTN. THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE E COAST W/ UPSTREAM RIDGING AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM INVOF THE 4-CORNERS REGION LATE THU. AT THE SURFACE...THE WEDGE HOLDS STRONG THRU TUE MORNING THEN WEAKENS TUE AFTN IN RESPONSE TO INVERTED TROUGH/DEVELOPING LOW OFF GA/SC COAST. THIS LOW QUICKLY DEEPENS IT ENCOUNTERS UPPER ENERGY SWINGING THRU THE CAROLINAS TUE NIGHT/WED. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES ~0.50") & LIFT...HAVE KEPT SILENT 10% FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPS & CLOUD COVER. BOTH RUC/ETA 1000-850 MB RH PROGS DEPICT 80% OR HIGHER VALUES THRU 06Z WED THEN DECREASING TO LESS THAN 40% WED NIGHT...SO M/CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER THRU WED NIGHT W/ CLOUDS DECREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK THU. WILL TREND TOWARD MET MOS FOR TNGT/TUE. MAV MOS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...EXCEPT TLH WHERE MID 30S MAY BE A TAD LOW. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GULF STATES EARLY THU MORNING...COULD SEE TEMPS DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING OVER NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. TEMPS QUICKLY INTO THE 60S IN THE AFTN. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN STATES MOVES OFFSHORE LATE FRI W/ WINDS VEERING TO SLY. INCOMING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE AS IT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS SAT & EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUN MORNING. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL W/ MAINLY LOW END SCATTERED SHWRS/ISOLD TSTM LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AFTN. PCPN ENDS FROM W TO E SAT EVENING W/ COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE & WIND SHIFT TO NWLY. TEMPS WILL BE MILD TO START THRU FIRST HALF THEN COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. && .MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS UNTIL LATE TUE INTO WED W/ NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS/SEAS WILL DECREASE FOR THU/FRI BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON SAT W/ ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM AFTN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THRU MID-WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 40 59 36 61/ 10 10 10 00 PFN 43 60 39 61/ 10 10 10 00 DHN 40 56 38 58/ 10 10 10 00 ABY 39 55 37 58/ 10 10 10 00 VLD 41 57 38 60/ 10 10 10 00 CTY 43 62 38 63/ 10 10 10 00 && $$ MAJ fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED MARINE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1245 PM EST MON FEB 16 2004 .SYNOPSIS...WV/IR ANIMATION SHOWS A PARADE OF UPPER SYSTEMS. ONE QUICKLY DEPARTING THE NC COAST...ANOTHER OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS & A MORE POTENT ONE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE PACIFIC COAST. OUR CWFA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS UNDER SWLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDE A DEVELOPING WEDGE FROM LEESIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO ERN GA & WEAK TROUGH FROM NRN GA INTO AL. MOISTURE WAS TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION ~900 MB W/ SUBSIDENCE ABOVE. ONSHORE FLOW OFF ATLANTIC AIDING IN MOISTURE ADVECTION RESULTING IN STRATOCU CEILINGS FROM 2500-3000 FT. LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION & CLOUD COVER HOLDING TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...& HAVE LOWERED TODAY'S MAX TEMP GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...NE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 10 KTS W/ SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ETA AT 12Z WRT UPPER PATTERN. THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS IT TRACKS EWD...REACHING THE ERN CONUS LATE TUE/EARLY EWD. THE GFS DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WED MORN & THE ETA WED AFTN. THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE E COAST W/ UPSTREAM RIDGING AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM INVOF THE 4-CORNERS REGION LATE THU. AT THE SURFACE...THE WEDGE HOLDS STRONG THRU TUE MORNING THEN WEAKENS TUE AFTN IN RESPONSE TO INVERTED TROUGH/DEVELOPING LOW OFF GA/SC COAST. THIS LOW QUICKLY DEEPENS IT ENCOUNTERS UPPER ENERGY SWINGING THRU THE CAROLINAS TUE NIGHT/WED. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES ~0.50") & LIFT...HAVE KEPT SILENT 10% FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPS & CLOUD COVER. BOTH RUC/ETA 1000-850 MB RH PROGS DEPICT 80% OR HIGHER VALUES THRU 06Z WED THEN DECREASING TO LESS THAN 40% WED NIGHT...SO M/CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER THRU WED NIGHT W/ CLOUDS DECREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK THU. WILL TREND TOWARD MET MOS FOR TNGT/TUE. MAV MOS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...EXCEPT TLH WHERE MID 30S MAY BE A TAD LOW. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GULF STATES EARLY THU MORNING...COULD SEE TEMPS DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING OVER NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. TEMPS QUICKLY INTO THE 60S IN THE AFTN. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN STATES MOVES OFFSHORE LATE FRI W/ WINDS VEERING TO SLY. INCOMING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE AS IT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS SAT & EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUN MORNING. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL W/ MAINLY LOW END SCATTERED SHWRS/ISOLD TSTM LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AFTN. PCPN ENDS FROM W TO E SAT EVENING W/ COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE & WIND SHIFT TO NWLY. TEMPS WILL BE MILD TO START THRU FIRST HALF THEN COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. && .MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS UNTIL LATE TUE INTO WED W/ NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS/SEAS WILL DECREASE FOR THU/FRI BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON SAT W/ ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM AFTN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THRU MID-WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 40 59 36 61/ 10 10 10 00 PFN 43 60 39 61/ 10 10 10 00 DHN 40 56 38 58/ 10 10 10 00 ABY 39 55 37 58/ 10 10 10 00 VLD 41 57 38 60/ 10 10 10 00 CTY 43 62 38 63/ 10 10 10 00 && .TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. && $$ MAJ fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 925 AM EST MON FEB 16 2004 .SHORT TERM... MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PUBLIC FORECAST IS WHAT THE LOW CLOUDS ARE GOING TO DO THIS AFTERNOON. THE RUC 1000-850 MB MEAN RH PROGS HAVE DONE WELL WITH LOW CLOUDS IN THE PAST...AND THESE PROGS SUGGEST WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. JAX 88D VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS STRONG NE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE...WHICH SHOULD HELP MOVE IN THE CLOUDS OFF THE GA/SC COAST WSW OF THE RETREATING SFC LOW E OF NC. MAY MENTION DECREASING CLOUDINESS LATE IN THE ZONES...BUT EXPECT TODAY TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...SEAS ARE STILL IN THE SCEC RANGE AT THE BUOYS...BUT WILL NOT MENTION SCEC FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 220 AM EST MON FEB 16 2004 .SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GULF AND CWFA. SURFACE DATA...HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO SHOW CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE LINGERS. WINDS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW CRITERIA WHILE SEAS REMAIN 7.5 TO 8 FEET. && .SHORT TERM...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...ALLOWING CEILINGS IN THE 1500-2500 RANGE TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING. UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL SWING THROUGH THE CWFA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING HIGHEST SHORT TERM POPS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN ZONES...AND THOSE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS FORECAST LAYER PWS TO REMAIN LOW AT 0.3 TO 0.6 INCHES. ALONG WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK. .LONG TERM...NO CHANGE TO EXTENDED FORECAST. A WARMING TREND STARTING ABOUT MID WEEK WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND. NEXT RAIN CHANCE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES E ACROSS THE SERN USA WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. && .MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE NORTH...AND WEAKEN A BIT MORE BY MORNING. SEAS WILL SLOWLY FALL BELOW CRITERIA BY MORNING. WILL KEEP MARINE ZONES SPLIT INTO INNER AND OUTER WATERS...WITH PROTECTED INNER SEAS SUBSIDING MORE QUICKLY. DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE HIGHLIGHTS...WILL MONITOR LAST AVAILABLE OBS BEFORE TRANSMISSION OF COASTALS. NO HIGHLIGHTS UNTIL END OF FORECAST PERIOD WHEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO REQUIREMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 57 37 59 37 / 10 10 10 10 PFN 56 41 61 42 / 10 10 10 10 DHN 52 38 56 39 / 10 10 10 20 ABY 52 37 55 37 / 10 10 10 20 VLD 56 40 57 38 / 10 10 10 10 CTY 61 44 63 41 / 10 10 10 10 && .TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. && $$ TJT/16 fl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ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 925 PM EST MON FEB 16 2004 .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... 00Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND RETREATING ARCTIC VORTEX JUST E OF NEWFOUNDLAND. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS WNW FLOW ARPCHG WRN LK SUP...AND LIMITED MSTR RETURN IN WARM CONVEYOR BELT SW FLOW BTWN SFC LO N OF INL AND DEPARTING ARCTIC HI PRES IN THE LWR GRT LKS HAS DRIVEN QUITE A BIT OF MID/HI CLD NE ACRS THE FA. CIGS LWR TO MVFR CATEGORY W OF IWD IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO PRES TROF EXTENDING SSW FM SFC LO INTO MN...AND SOME LGT -SN HAS FALLEN OVER NRN MN ALL AFTN AND EVNG. HOWEVER...ARRIVAL OF MID LVL DRY AIR EVIDENT ON IR/WV SAT IMAGERY AND DEPICTED ON 0Z BIS SDNG IN DRY SURGE REGION ON SRN FLANK OF SHRTWV LIMITING SN RATES...AND MOST PLACES RPRTG VSBY NO LESS THAN 3-5SM. LLVL DRY AIR ACRS CWA (DWPT STILL JUST 7 AT CMX AT 01Z) AS EVIDENT ON 00Z GRB SDNG BLO THE HIER MID LVL MSTR HAS PREVENTED ANY OF THIS SN FM FALLING OVER THE CWA SO FAR...EVEN THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA CLOSER TO THE MORE IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHD OF AND DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE APRCHG SHRTWV. THE LES THAT FORMED OFF LK MI THIS AFTN IN THE SSW FLOW INTO SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES HAS WEAKENED AS LLVLS WARMING/STABILIZING AND LLVL WNDS TENDING TO VEER WITH APRCH OF SHRTWV AS FCST BY LOCAL WORKSTATION ETA MODEL AND RUC...LEAVING ONLY A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE SN CHCS AND AMTS ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING SHRTWV. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW APRCHG SHRTWV TRACKING ESE ACRS LK SUP OVERNIGHT...WITH A DRY WLY MID LVL FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF THIS SYS ADVECTING DRIER AIR ALF UPSTREAM OVER THE FA AHD OF THE SFC LO PRES TROF...WHICH IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WRN ZNS AFTER 09Z. ALL MODELS SHOW DCRSG H85-5 MEAN RH...WITH ETA FCST SDNGS INDICATING TOP OF MOIST LYR COMING DOWN BLO LOWEST ALTITUDE FVRBL FOR DENDRITIC SN GROWTH BY 06Z OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. GOING FCST POPS AS HI AS LIKELY OVER THE KEWEENAW STILL LOOK ON TRACK...BUT WL CUT POPS ACRS THE SRN TIER FARTHER FM THE TRACK OF THE SHRTWV. LINGERING -SHSN OFF LK MI WL CONT SHIFTING INTO MACKINAC COUNTY AS LLVL WNDS VEER. NO MORE THAN AN INCH OF SN ANYWHERE GIVEN PASSAGE OF BETTER DYNAMICS TO N AND LIMITED WINDOW BEFORE MID LVL DRY AIR ARRIVES. XPCT LTL DIURNAL FALL IN TEMP WITH STEADY SW WIND AND SC CIGS LINGERING THRU THE NGT PER ETA FCST SDNGS...EVEN AFTER MID LVL DRYING ABOVE. GOING FCST NEEDS ONLY MINOR CHGS. KC .LONG TERM... BLYR TEMPS MAY BE COOL ENOUGH (-10C) FOR SOME LIGHT SHSN OR FLURRIES EARLY TUE ALONG THE KEWEENAW...OTHERWISE ANY LINGERING SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOULD EXIT QUICKLY TO THE EAST. TUE WILL BE BENIGN WX DAY AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30...AS H8 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR -5C IN THE FAR WEST BY LATE IN THE DAY. NEXT FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE IN DEALING WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE ON WED. HAVE STAYED THE COURSE WITH THE COOLER/WETTER GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS COMPARABLE TO THE CANADIAN/UKMET IN SHOWING LOWER HEIGHTS AND SOME QPF AS OPPOSED TO THE DRY/WARM ETA. EVEN THE LOCAL WSETAX IS PAINTING SOME QPF. THIS SEEMS THE BEST ACTION TO TAKE CONSIDERING THE WAVE IN QUESTION IS STILL IN THE GULF OF AK...THUS HAVE KEPT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR EVERYONE. WILL BECOME WINDY TOO...AS LOW PRES DEEPENS TO OUR N. THE GFS IS SHOWING 6HR PRES FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 10MB BY 12Z. THE ETA IS MUCH STRONGER...AND SOUNDINGS SHOW LLJ WINDS OF 60KTS AT AROUND 2KFT. THOUGH WAA WILL BE TAKING PLACE...THE SPEED MAX OCCURS DURING THE AFTN...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH OF THIS. FOR NOW...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD SUFFICE. TEMPS ALSO IN QUESTION. HAVING SIDED WITH THE GFS...WILL ALSO GO NEAR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...WHICH SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE 30S EVEN WITH CLD COVER. THE ETA IS SHOWING H8 TEMPS WELL ABOVE ZERO...AND MET GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HIGHS INTO THE 40S FROM IWD TO MQT AND IMT. EVEN W/OUT PCPN...HAVE TO BELIEVE CLDS AND SOLID SNOW COVER UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW THIS LEVEL. SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NITE AND THU. CONSIDERING THE NEW UKMET AND CANADIAN RUNS ARE ACTUALLY TRENDING A BIT DEEPER WITH THE WED SHORTWAVE...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES IN ITS WAKE. A GFS SOUNDING AT MQT SHOWS AN INVERSION HGT NEAR 5KFT AND WITH TEMPS NEAR -10C ON THU...WHICH IS MARGINAL GIVEN THE ICY LAKE. IN THE EXTENDED (FRI-MON)...NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE FRIDAY AS NRN BRANCH WAVE INTERACTS WITH AN ACTIVE SRN BRANCH. THOUGH CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR AN UNPHASED SYSTEM...SOME SORT OF INVERTED TROF LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE U P. SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE GOING FCST OF CHANCE SNOW. WILL KEEP CHC SNOW GOING THRU SAT GIVEN A CONTINUATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALF...AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE. WILL KEEP SHSN GOING FOR SUN WITH N OR NWLY FLOW AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. OPERATIONAL GFS AGREES WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN IN GIVING A POSSIBLE DRY DAY ON MON...WITH CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A DEEPER TROF DIGGING OUT WEST. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR A BIT ABOVE...BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE MEX GUIDANCE SHOWS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE MORE SEASONABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR TEMPS...WHICH WOULD CONCUR MORE WITH THE COOLER ECMWF/UKMET RUNS. JKL && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 431 PM EST MON FEB 16 2004 .DISCUSSION... WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE W...AND SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SFC LOW NOW IN NWRN ONTARIO. DRY LOWER LEVELS HAVE HELD ON TODAY...DESPITE ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND HAVE ONLY SEEN BKN MID CLD SO FAR. LES BAND OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IS AFFECTING PARTS OF SRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE CTYS...WHERE AROUND AN INCH HAS FALLEN TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST LIFT PASSING US TO THE NORTH...AND IR IMAGERY DOES INDEED SHOW COLDEST CLD TOPS N/NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE KEWEENAW TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PASSES. WILL TAPER POPS FROM 60 IN THE N TO MERE FLURRIES IN THE SOUTH (AND THIS MAY BE TOO GENEROUS). ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE LES OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. RUC/ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS OF 3-4KFT LOWERING FURTHER THIS EVENING AS WAA CONTINUES...SO WILL GIVE AN ADDITIONAL INCH. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER ENOUGH TO TAKE CONVERGENCE INTO MACKINAC CTY OVERNIGHT. BLYR TEMPS MAY BE COOL ENOUGH (-10C) FOR SOME LIGHT SHSN OR FLURRIES EARLY TUE ALONG THE KEWEENAW...OTHERWISE ANY LINGERING SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOULD EXIT QUICKLY TO THE EAST. TUE WILL BE BENIGN WX DAY AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30...AS H8 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR -5C IN THE FAR WEST BY LATE IN THE DAY. NEXT FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE IN DEALING WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE ON WED. HAVE STAYED THE COURSE WITH THE COOLER/WETTER GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS COMPARABLE TO THE CANADIAN/UKMET IN SHOWING LOWER HEIGHTS AND SOME QPF AS OPPOSED TO THE DRY/WARM ETA. EVEN THE LOCAL WSETAX IS PAINTING SOME QPF. THIS SEEMS THE BEST ACTION TO TAKE CONSIDERING THE WAVE IN QUESTION IS STILL IN THE GULF OF AK...THUS HAVE KEPT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR EVERYONE. WILL BECOME WINDY TOO...AS LOW PRES DEEPENS TO OUR N. THE GFS IS SHOWING 6HR PRES FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 10MB BY 12Z. THE ETA IS MUCH STRONGER...AND SOUNDINGS SHOW LLJ WINDS OF 60KTS AT AROUND 2KFT. THOUGH WAA WILL BE TAKING PLACE...THE SPEED MAX OCCURS DURING THE AFTN...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH OF THIS. FOR NOW...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD SUFFICE. TEMPS ALSO IN QUESTION. HAVING SIDED WITH THE GFS...WILL ALSO GO NEAR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...WHICH SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE 30S EVEN WITH CLD COVER. THE ETA IS SHOWING H8 TEMPS WELL ABOVE ZERO...AND MET GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HIGHS INTO THE 40S FROM IWD TO MQT AND IMT. EVEN W/OUT PCPN...HAVE TO BELIEVE CLDS AND SOLID SNOW COVER UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW THIS LEVEL. SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NITE AND THU. CONSIDERING THE NEW UKMET AND CANADIAN RUNS ARE ACTUALLY TRENDING A BIT DEEPER WITH THE WED SHORTWAVE...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES IN ITS WAKE. A GFS SOUNDING AT MQT SHOWS AN INVERSION HGT NEAR 5KFT AND WITH TEMPS NEAR -10C ON THU...WHICH IS MARGINAL GIVEN THE ICY LAKE. IN THE EXTENDED (FRI-MON)...NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE FRIDAY AS NRN BRANCH WAVE INTERACTS WITH AN ACTIVE SRN BRANCH. THOUGH CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR AN UNPHASED SYSTEM...SOME SORT OF INVERTED TROF LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE U P. SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE GOING FCST OF CHANCE SNOW. WILL KEEP CHC SNOW GOING THRU SAT GIVEN A CONTINUATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALF...AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE. WILL KEEP SHSN GOING FOR SUN WITH N OR NWLY FLOW AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. OPERATIONAL GFS AGREES WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN IN GIVING A POSSIBLE DRY DAY ON MON...WITH CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A DEEPER TROF DIGGING OUT WEST. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR A BIT ABOVE...BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE MEX GUIDANCE SHOWS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE MORE SEASONABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR TEMPS...WHICH WOULD CONCUR MORE WITH THE COOLER ECMWF/UKMET RUNS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && $$ JKL mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 950 AM EST MON FEB 16 2004 .UPDATE... OUTSIDE OF WAYNE, MONROE AND MACOMB COUNTIES (PER METARS AND COOP REPORTS), EVERYONE WAS AT OR BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. THE COLDEST APPEARS TO BE KBAX WITH -13F, FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY KFNT WITH -10F. SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER THE STATE AND SLOWLY HEADING EAST INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK. OUR SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS VERY DRY BELOW 700MB AND BECOMING A LITTLE MORE MOIST THE HIGHER WE GO. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS. LATEST RUC BRINGS THE HIGHER RH FIELDS ACROSS THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB AND LEAVING SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WITH A MAINLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. BASED ON MIXING LEVEL HEIGHTS AND A VERY COLD START, TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 20S (EXCEPTION ACROSS THE THUMB) AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN OUR GRIDS. THEREFORE, NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS POINT. BGM && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 328 AM EST 00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES/VORT CENTERS IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. STILL A SEMBLANCE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...HOWEVER WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A LOW JUST WEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG. SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ARE CLEAR...ASIDE FROM A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THAT RANDOMLY APPEAR IN THE METAR OBS BUT ARE NOT APPARENT ON SATELLITE. AGAIN RATHER QUIET WEATHER TO START THE FORECAST. FOR TODAY SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR...AND WITH TEMPERATURES AT MOST STATIONS BELOW ZERO. WARMEST READINGS ARE AT DTW/DET WITH URBAN INFLUENCES... HOWEVER STILL EXPECT THEM TO DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES NOW THAT THEIR WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. DESPITE THE COLD START...SHOULD SEE A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TODAY. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TO THE LOWER LAKES/NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP BEHIND IT. SETUP IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND NOT MORE THAN 10MPH...BUT MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE TIP OF THE THUMB SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK INTO THE LOW/MID 20S. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST SHADED TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS NUMBERS. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE MORNING...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA. WILL HOLD ON TO SUNNY SKIES LONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER WILL HAVE ALL AREAS TRANSITIONING TO PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION. MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE GENERALLY 700MB AND ABOVE...HOWEVER LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY DRY. WILL LEAVE SKY COVER AS A HIGH PARTLY CLOUDY. DESPITE LIFT FROM WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE...WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DRY GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE FLUX AND ABUNDANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STRIPS AWAY...BUT THERE IS SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. PRECIP CHANCES ARE STILL MARGINAL...BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES FOR TUESDAY. SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE THAT TRACKS INTO THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE RATHER CONSISTENT DROPPING A DECENT WAVE INTO THE LAKES REGION... WITH A SURFACE WAVE TRACKING THROUGH LAKE HURON. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A DECENT SHOT FOR WARM ADVECTION PRECIP AHEAD OF THE WAVE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE ETA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF THE THIS SOLUTION...AND IS MUCH SLOWER WITH A WEAKER WAVE THAT IT KEEPS NORTH OF THE BORDER. IT HAS A STRONGER LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WHICH KEEPS THE WAVE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND EVEN HAS ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW HOLDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES. GFS ALSO HAS A STRONGER LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A SHARPER/STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. BOTH THE ETA/GFS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER WEST WITH THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. NORTHERN EXTENT IS SIMILAR /ESPECIALLY IN THE ETA/ BUT BOTH HAVE MORE OF A POSITIVE TILT WITH THE MAIN ENERGY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A MORE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM RIDGE...AND KEEP THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE DEFLECTED FARTHER NORTH. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. AND WITH DECENT WARM ADVECTION/BUILDING HEIGHTS...MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ TDB EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FORMAT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 700 PM CST MON FEB 16 2004 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED ZONE FORECAST TO REMOVE FLURRIES FROM OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GROUPINGS. THE RUC AND ETA FORECAST BL TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT (~4 DEG C) AND RELATIVELY HIGH WETBULB ZERO HEIGHT (2800FT) SUGGEST LOW LEVELS WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOW FLAKES TO REACH THE GROUND. ALSO, IT APPEARS THAT ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE IN THIS REGION. DID LEAVE FLURRIES IN NORTHWEST GROUP WHERE THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH COULD SNEAK A FEW FLAKES IN THERE BEFORE SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN WORK ITS WAY IN TO COOL BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM. && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. MS...NONE. && 43/EC $$ ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 840PM EST MON FEB 16 2004 FAIRLY DRY AND COOL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW MID CLOUDS BEGINNING TO STREAM NE OUT OF THE GULF STATES ATTM AND THIS COMBINED WITH A RETURN OF SOME LOW LVL MSTR BY LATE TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FOR FALLING MUCH BELOW CURRENT FORECASTS. LATEST RUC AND GFS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS LATE TONIGHT COASTAL SECTIONS. STILL AM NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED ENOUGH TO LIFT THEM COMPLETELY. EVENING SOUNDING STILL INDICATES A DECENT LAYER A WARM AIR ALOFT ALONG THE COAST AND WITH AN INFLUX OF MID LVL MSTR LATE TONIGHT TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL. AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT IF ANYTHING DOES FALL IT WOULD BE MORE OF THE SLEET/FREEZING RAIN VARIETY. BUT WILL ONLY A 20 POP WILL LET CURRENT FORECAST RIDE AND NOT WORRY ABOUT ANY ICE ACCUMULATION THROUGH 6 AM. .MARINE...BUOY DATA INDICATES WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUING TO FALL IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECASTS. LATEST GFS HAS WINDS DROPPING A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER FORECAST BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY JUMP ON THESE YET. SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA MOST EVERYWHERE BY MORNING. RUC DOES SUPPORT SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT THAN GFS SO WILL KEEP SCA WORDING THROUGH THE NIGHT. .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...SCA ALL WATERS. $$ MLF nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1035 AM CST MON FEB 16 2004 .DISCUSSION... WIND SHIFT CRNTLY EXTENDS FM ERN ND TO CNTRL SD...WITH ERLR LOW CLOUD BAND FULLY CLEAR OF CWA. STG UPR WAVE ON WV LOCATED NR WINNIPEG SHIFTING ESE...A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR MIXING. TEMPERATURES AGAIN PROVIDE THE GREATEST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY. BAND OF MID LVL LIFT WILL SLIDE THRU TDA AND KEEP A FAIR AMT OF MID AND HI LVL CLDS. HOWEVER...NOT ALL THAT BAD TO CUT DOWN ON THE ALBEDO TO LET MIXING TAKE MORE CONTROL. INITIALIZATION A BIT OFF ON LOW LVL COOLING TRAILING BACK INTO WRN PLAINS...SO MAY BE SOMEWHAT EASIER TO MIX THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVR WRN CWA. UPSTREAM RAOBS FM BIS/UNR SUGGEST TACKING ON A FEW DEGREES TO WRN AND LESSER SNOW AREAS...AS WELL AS ELEVATED AREAS TO E. OF AVIATION CONCERN AS WELL IS THE LOW CLOUDS BAND SAGGING INTO NCNTRL AND NERN SD...LINED UP WELL WITH WK CONVERGENCE IN 925-850HPA LYR. WINDS IN CLOUD BEARING LYR ACTUALLY HAVE TROUBLING TREND OF PICKING UP MORE AND MORE NLY COMPONENT HEADING THRU LTR AFTN AND EVNG. WITH RECENT STLT TREND...MESOETA PREFERRED OVR RUC FOR LOW LVL MSTR...AND WOULD SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS DOWN TO MO RVR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...BEFORE ACTING TO WASH OUT IN OVERALL SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE. && .FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MN...NONE. NE...NONE. IA...NONE. SD...NONE. && $$ CHAPMAN sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 942 PM CST MON FEB 16 2004 .942 PM DISCUSSION... STRONG FORCING AND VERTICAL MOTIONS WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAVE RESULTED IN CONVECTION FROM THE RED RIVER NORTH OF GAINESVILLE..NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED DURING THE LAST 20 MINUTES (AS OF 900 PM). WE WILL UPDATE ZONES...INCREASE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST...AND ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIX. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE ELEVATED SUCH THAT HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY. SHORT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...AND EVEN SOME VERY SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE HEAVIEST CORES OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS WILL BE MADE WITH THE UPDATE. #26 && .521 PM AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR...NO CONCERNS. AGREE WITH CWSU. AS THE 21Z RUC HAS THINGS ON TRACK WITH THE CURRENT SFC PATTERN AND WIND FIELD...WILL ADJUST TAFS ACCORDINGLY. WNDS COMING ARND TO NLY ARND 10 KTS DURG MRNG TUE. 30/SS && .PREV PUBLIC DISCUSSION... 232 PM CST SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED 20 POPS THIS AREA FOR LIGHT RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK COOL FRONT FOLLOWING THIS WAVE...BUT LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BE LACKING. A BRIEF UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG CYCLOGENESIS FROM WESTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEST TEXAS THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS TURNING WINDY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STRONG WAA WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS THURSDAY...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF FRIDAY. AS THE CYCLONE EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA FRIDAY...A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST AS BEST DYNAMIC MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE MARGINAL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...HAVE PLACED 20-30 POPS (SHRA/TSRA) FOR THE NORTHERN HALF AND EAST HALF. THE REMAINING CWA BECOMES DRY-SLOTTED WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM NEARING NORTH TEXAS BY FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY. 75 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 37 62 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 WACO, TX 39 65 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 36 60 35 64 / 20 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 34 61 35 67 / 20 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 34 61 35 67 / 20 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 37 62 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 37 62 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 37 62 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 39 65 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. && $$ D tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.CORRECTED... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 900 PM CST MON FEB 16 2004 .900 PM DISCUSSION... STRONG FORCING AND VERTICAL MOTIONS WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAVE RESULTED IN CONVECTION FROM THE RED RIVER NORTH OF GAINESVILLE..NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED DURING THE LAST 20 MINUTES (AS OF 900 PM). WE WILL UPDATE ZONES...INCREASE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST...AND ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIX. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE ELEVATED SUCH THAT HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY. SHORT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...AND EVEN SOME VERY SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE HEAVIEST CORES OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS WILL BE MADE WITH THE UPDATE. #26 && .521 PM AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR...NO CONCERNS. AGREE WITH CWSU. AS THE 21Z RUC HAS THINGS ON TRACK WITH THE CURRENT SFC PATTERN AND WIND FIELD...WILL ADJUST TAFS ACCORDINGLY. WNDS COMING ARND TO NLY ARND 10 KTS DURG MRNG TUE. 30/SS && .PREV PUBLIC DISCUSSION... 232 PM CST SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED 20 POPS THIS AREA FOR LIGHT RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK COOL FRONT FOLLOWING THIS WAVE...BUT LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BE LACKING. A BRIEF UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG CYCLOGENESIS FROM WESTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEST TEXAS THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS TURNING WINDY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STRONG WAA WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS THURSDAY...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF FRIDAY. AS THE CYCLONE EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA FRIDAY...A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST AS BEST DYNAMIC MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE MARGINAL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...HAVE PLACED 20-30 POPS (SHRA/TSRA) FOR THE NORTHERN HALF AND EAST HALF. THE REMAINING CWA BECOMES DRY-SLOTTED WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM NEARING NORTH TEXAS BY FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY. 75 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 37 62 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 WACO, TX 39 65 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 36 60 35 64 / 20 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 34 61 35 67 / 20 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 34 61 35 67 / 20 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 37 62 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 37 62 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 37 62 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 39 65 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. && $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.CORRECTED... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 530 PM CST MON FEB 16 2004 ...CORRECTED TO ADD POINT TEMPERATURES/POPS .521 PM AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR...NO CONCERNS. AGREE WITH CWSU. AS THE 21Z RUC HAS THINGS ON TRACK WITH THE CURRENT SFC PATTERN AND WIND FIELD...WILL ADJUST TAFS ACCORDINGLY. WNDS COMING ARND TO NLY ARND 10 KTS DURG MRNG TUE. 30/SS && .PREV PUBLIC DISCUSSION... 232 PM CST SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED 20 POPS THIS AREA FOR LIGHT RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK COOL FRONT FOLLOWING THIS WAVE...BUT LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BE LACKING. A BRIEF UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG CYCLOGENESIS FROM WESTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEST TEXAS THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS TURNING WINDY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STRONG WAA WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS THURSDAY...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF FRIDAY. AS THE CYCLONE EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA FRIDAY...A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST AS BEST DYNAMIC MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE MARGINAL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...HAVE PLACED 20-30 POPS (SHRA/TSRA) FOR THE NORTHERN HALF AND EAST HALF. THE REMAINING CWA BECOMES DRY-SLOTTED WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM NEARING NORTH TEXAS BY FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY. 75 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 37 62 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 WACO, TX 39 65 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 36 60 35 64 / 20 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 34 61 35 67 / 20 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 34 61 35 67 / 20 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 37 62 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 37 62 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 37 62 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 39 65 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. && $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 521 PM CST MON FEB 16 2004 .AVIATION... VFR...NO CONCERNS. AGREE WITH CWSU. AS THE 21Z RUC HAS THINGS ON TRACK WITH THE CURRENT SFC PATTERN AND WIND FIELD...WILL ADJUST TAFS ACCORDINGLY. WNDS COMING ARND TO NLY ARND 10 KTS DURG MRNG TUE. 30/SS && .PREV PUBLIC DISCUSSION... 232 PM CST SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED 20 POPS THIS AREA FOR LIGHT RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK COOL FRONT FOLLOWING THIS WAVE...BUT LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BE LACKING. A BRIEF UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG CYCLOGENESIS FROM WESTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEST TEXAS THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS TURNING WINDY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STRONG WAA WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS THURSDAY...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF FRIDAY. AS THE CYCLONE EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA FRIDAY...A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST AS BEST DYNAMIC MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE MARGINAL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...HAVE PLACED 20-30 POPS (SHRA/TSRA) FOR THE NORTHERN HALF AND EAST HALF. THE REMAINING CWA BECOMES DRY-SLOTTED WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM NEARING NORTH TEXAS BY FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY. 75 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 341 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2004 .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE A RIDGE IS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE HIGH PLAINS. AS ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS UPPER MICHIGAN ANOTHER DEEPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTHWEST LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE AN OCCLUDED FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE EAST END OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A RIDGE CHASING IT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MANITOBA. KDLH 88D AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT IS DEPARTING THE EASTERN COUNTIES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -10C THUS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SHIFT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WILL THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVES AS IS SPEEDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY. THE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST SHIFTING SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. WARM DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING THE 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -6C OVER THE FORECAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. 850-500MB Q-VECTORS ANALYSIS INDICATE WEAK CONVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...THEN STRONG DIVERGENCE. AFTER THE SNOWS DEPART WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALOFT WILL KEEP A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. TRAJECTORY FORECAST SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...HOWEVER...WITH INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING EXPECT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARM THAN THAT AND CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MORE PRONOUNCE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN U.P. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW SLIDES OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT HEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT BY THE 275K CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH INDICATES THAT ONLY THE U.P. WESTERN LAKE OF THE U.P. WILL EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND SUNRISE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON ANOTHER WILL RACE INTO THE WESTERN U.P. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO. WEAK Q-VECTORS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL RACE THROUGH THE U.P. WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW REACH JAMES BAY. MODELS SHOW ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO KEEP SNOW GOING IN THE EVENING OVER THE EAST. THE SYSTEM STABILIZES AND DRY OUT RAPIDLY BY LATE EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH ACCOMPANYING DRY AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DLG mi