TO: PUBLIC SAFETY AGENCIES
FM: NWS TULSA OPERATIONS
RE: MESOSCALE UPDATE MESSAGE
RELEASED...301 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2008

SOME MID CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
COUPLE OF FEEBLE ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTION. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
SHOWING LIMITED CIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND WILL
STAY UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AND THUS WILL SEE WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
COMPARED TO LAST TWO NIGHTS. COULD AGAIN SEE SOME MID CLOUDS
TONIGHT AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDES OVER WESTERN RIDGE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND BY
LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. SFC WINDS
WILL VEER SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT LEADING TO THE WARMEST DAY
IN THE NEAR TERM...HOWEVER THE MAV GUIDANCE CONTINUES ITS WARM
BIAS OF LATE AND AGAIN WILL SIDE WITH COOLER MET. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH MAY ORGANIZE
INTO A COMPLEX THAT WILL MAKE A RUN AT OUR NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LATE
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS AS UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH AND FRONT WILL LIKELY
STALL AND WASH OUT BEFORE MAKING MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH INTO OK/AR.

WESTERN U.S. RIDGE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST
THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW BUT THIS PATTERN
SUGGESTS RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE RE-INTRODUCED NEXT WEEK.
WARM UP WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERED BY RECENT WET CONDITIONS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK.



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  93  76  90 /   0   0  10  30 
FSM   66  91  70  90 /   0   0   0  20 
MLC   69  91  71  93 /   0   0   0  10 
BVO   68  91  69  88 /   0   0  20  40 
FYV   63  86  66  86 /   0   0  10  30 
BYV   64  86  68  85 /   0   0  10  30 
MKO   67  90  70  90 /   0   0  10  20 
MIO   69  90  71  85 /   0   0  20  40 
F10   68  91  71  92 /   0   0   0  20 
HHW   67  92  70  93 /   0   0   0  10 


.GRAPHICS AND FORECASTS
NWS TULSA HAZARD EVALUATION PAGE... www.srh.weather.gov/tulsa/outlooks/
NWS TULSA POINT FORECAST PAGE... www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/gridpoint.php?site=tsa
NWS TULSA MAIN PAGE... www.srh.noaa.gov/tulsa

THIS MESOSCALE UPDATE MESSAGE IS PREPARED DURING RAPIDLY CHANGING HAZARDOUS
WEATHER SITUATIONS TO HELP AGENCIES STAY INFORMED ON THE 
LATEST FORECAST REASONING