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SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 33
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
615 PM CST THU FEB 26 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 615 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF DE QUEEN ARKANSAS TO 20 MILES NORTH OF FLIPPIN
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 32...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER SW ALONG MERGING COLD
FRONTS/DRY LINE IN ERN OK/WRN AR THROUGH LATE EVE...WITH DEVELOPMENT
FOSTERED BY INCREASING UPR DIFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SRN
KS JET STREAK. A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL...DMG WIND...AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TORNADO APPEAR LIKELY AS ACTIVITY EVOLVES INTO
BROKEN BANDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27040.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 33 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 270015Z - 270800Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15SSW DEQ/DE QUEEN AR/ - 20N FLP/FLIPPIN AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /30NW TXK - 67SE SGF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040.
LAT...LON 33849616 36479418 36479076 33849283
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 33 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 33
VALID 270700Z - 270840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW DEQ
TO 25 SW POF.
..SPC..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 33
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC019-023-045-051-053-059-063-085-105-109-119-125-135-145-
270840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK CLEBURNE FAULKNER
GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING
INDEPENDENCE LONOKE PERRY
PIKE PULASKI SALINE
SHARP WHITE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 33
VALID 270535Z - 270640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW DEQ
TO 20 E RUE TO 20 SSE UNO.
..GOSS..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 33
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC019-023-027-045-049-051-053-057-059-061-063-065-073-081-085-
091-097-099-105-109-119-125-133-135-137-145-270640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK CLEBURNE COLUMBIA
FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND
GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD
LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LONOKE
MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA
PERRY PIKE PULASKI
SALINE SEVIER SHARP
STONE WHITE
$$
TXC037-387-270640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE RED RIVER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 33
VALID 270500Z - 270640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE PRX TO
25 SW RUE TO 20 SSW UNO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 156
..SMITH..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 33
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC019-023-027-045-049-051-053-057-059-061-063-065-073-081-085-
091-097-099-105-109-119-125-133-135-137-145-270640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK CLEBURNE COLUMBIA
FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND
GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD
LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LONOKE
MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA
PERRY PIKE PULASKI
SALINE SEVIER SHARP
STONE WHITE
$$
OKC089-270640-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-387-270640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE RED RIVER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 33
VALID 270350Z - 270440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW PRX
TO 20 S RKR TO 20 NNE RUE TO 25 SW UNO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 154
..SMITH..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 33
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC019-023-027-029-045-049-051-053-057-059-061-063-065-073-081-
085-091-097-099-105-109-113-115-119-125-133-135-137-141-145-149-
270440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK CLEBURNE COLUMBIA
CONWAY FAULKNER FULTON
GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE
IZARD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER
LONOKE MILLER MONTGOMERY
NEVADA PERRY PIKE
POLK POPE PULASKI
SALINE SEVIER SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WHITE
YELL
$$
OKC089-270440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-387-270440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE RED RIVER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 33
VALID 270240Z - 270340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MLC TO
25 NW RUE TO 20 N FLP.
..GOSS..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 33
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-019-023-029-045-049-051-053-057-059-061-063-065-071-081-
083-085-089-097-099-101-105-109-113-115-119-125-127-129-133-135-
137-141-145-149-270340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER CLARK CLEBURNE
CONWAY FAULKNER FULTON
GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE
IZARD JOHNSON LITTLE RIVER
LOGAN LONOKE MARION
MONTGOMERY NEVADA NEWTON
PERRY PIKE POLK
POPE PULASKI SALINE
SCOTT SEARCY SEVIER
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
WHITE YELL
$$
OKC023-079-089-127-270340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW LE FLORE MCCURTAIN
PUSHMATAHA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 33
VALID 270130Z - 270240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE MLC
TO 10 W FSM TO 25 NW HRO.
..GOSS..02/27/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 33
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-015-019-023-029-033-045-047-049-051-053-057-059-061-
063-065-071-081-083-085-087-089-097-099-101-105-109-113-115-119-
125-127-129-131-133-135-137-141-145-149-270240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CARROLL
CLARK CLEBURNE CONWAY
CRAWFORD FAULKNER FRANKLIN
FULTON GARLAND GRANT
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JOHNSON
LITTLE RIVER LOGAN LONOKE
MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY
NEVADA NEWTON PERRY
PIKE POLK POPE
PULASKI SALINE SCOTT
SEARCY SEBASTIAN SEVIER
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
WHITE YELL
$$
OKC023-077-079-089-127-270240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW LATIMER LE FLORE
MCCURTAIN PUSHMATAHA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
