Title: Probability Bounds Analysis and Imprecise Probabilities

Speaker: Scott Ferson, Applied Biomathematics

Date/Time: Wednesday, January 23, 2:00-3:00 (NM), 1:00-2:00 (CA)

Location: CSRI Building, Room 90 (Sandia NM), Building 916, Room 101 (CA)

Brief Abstract: Whenever probability theory has been used to make calculations, analysts have routinely assumed (i) probabilities and probability distributions can be precisely specified, (ii) variables are all independent of one another, and (iii) model structure is known without error. For the most part, these assumptions have been made for the sake of mathematical convenience, rather than with any empirical justification. And, until now, these assumptions were pretty much necessary in order to get any answer at all. New methods now allow us to compute bounds on estimates of probabilities and probability distributions that are guaranteed to be correct even when one or more of the assumptions is relaxed or removed. In many cases, the results obtained are the best possible bounds, which means that tightening them would require additional empirical information.   This talk will present an overview of p-boxes (probability bounds analysis), imprecise probability methods, and the modeling of dependence among epistemic uncertain variables.

CSRI POC: Laura Swiler, (505) 844-8093