000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271626
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1600 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 3N78W 5N90W 3N105W 7N127W 4N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
122W AND 126W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 84W AND 90W...AND BETWEEN 126W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 100W...
WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N133W
AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SSEWD TO 30N132W IS 
SKIRTING THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS RIDING OVER 
A FLAT RIDGE WHICH COVERED THE AREA W OF 120W. AXIS OF MERGED 
POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JTST IS SLICING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
FROM 29N140W EWD ALONG 30N130W TO 28N120W. SATELLITE DERIVED 
WINDS INDICATED JET CORE WINDS OF 115-130 KT. SURFACE COLD FRONT 
EXTENDED FROM 30N133W TO 27N140W AND WAS MOVING ESEWD 15-20 KT. 
FURTHER E...ANOTHER NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SRN 
CALIFORNIA SSEWD JUST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 17N113W AND WAS IN 
PHASE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE DEEP TROPICS EXTENDING 
SWWD TO NEAR 7N123W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED W 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND EXTENDED WWD INTO THE RIDGE NOTED ABOVE. 
DIFFLUENT FLOW JUST SE OF THE TROUGH WAS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. 
     
E OF 100W...
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER VENEZUELA EXTENDED WWD 
INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND FAR SE PACIFIC. CONFLUENT SWLY FLOW ALOFT 
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING 
ALONG  THE E COAST OF THE U.S. WAS EVIDENT OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS ALSO INDICATED. FLOW TURNED MORE DIFFLUENT 
OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND WAS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 88W AND 95W DESPITE THE 
PRESENCE OF VERY DRY AIR IMMEDIATELY TO THE W.   

GAP WINDS...
1156 UTC SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED 20-25 KT WINDS REMAIN IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT 
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS INCREASING SLY FLOW IN THE 
GULF OF MEXICO CUTS OFF SUPPLY OF COLD AIR N OF THE GAP. WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 
36-48 HOURS.

$$
COBB