####018010918#### FXUS06 KWBC 022011 PMDMRD PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD 300 PM EST MON FEB 02 2009 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 08 - 12 2009 THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGES ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH A PRONOUNCED TROUGH IN BETWEEN, CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THERE IS LITTLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ON THE GENERAL FEATURES OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN, WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOCUSING ON THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE PACIFIC JET WILL DIVE INTO THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND RE-ENFORCE THE SOUTHERN JET, OR WHETHER THEY WILL STAY WITHIN A WEAK NORTHERN JET, AND ENHANCE THE SPLIT FLOW AS THEY PASS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE SPLIT-FLOW SOLUTION IS VERY SLIGHTLY FAVORED, KEEPING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES A BIT WARMER THAN IT WOULD BE IF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVED SOUTH. IN ANY CASE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREDOMINATE IN THE EAST. A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION, AND THE WESTERN TROUGH SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WELL SOUTH OF THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK, AND NEAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE WESTERN TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER ALASKA, SUGGESTING A CONTINUATION OF COLD CONDITIONS OVER THE STATE, WITH BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: MUCH ABOVE-AVERAGE, 5 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO OUTSTANDING MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE AUTO BLEND FORECAST, KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND, AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE AUTO BLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST, CALIBRATED MODEL PRECIPITATION, AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 10 - 16 2009 THE MODELS FORECAST THAT THE MEAN 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY MEAN. THE EASTERN RIDGE WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY BETWEEN THE TWO PERIODS, INCREASING THE CHANCES THAT COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE EAST FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH; HOWEVER, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS LONG AS THE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE WEST. AS A RESULT, BOTH THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS EXPECTED IN THE WEEK-TWO PERIOD ARE SIMILAR TO THAT OF 6-10 DAYS. THE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING RIDGE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CANADA REQUIRES WATCHING, SINCE THIS FEATURE TELECONNECTS WITH A SUPRESSED JET OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES. A COMPARISON BETWEEN THE MEAN FLOW BETWEEN THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS SUGGESTS THIS POSSIBILITY FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, BUT A HINT OF CIRCULATION CHANGES FOR THE EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON: THE NAEFS TEMPERATURE FORECAST, KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND, THE AUTO BLEND TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON: THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE AUTO BLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST, AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND. FORECASTER: DAVE UNGER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 19. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19840127 - 19850216 - 19640211 - 19670113 - 19900123 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19840127 - 19640211 - 19900123 - 19670113 - 19890117 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR FEB 08 - 12 2009 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA N N WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR FEB 10 - 16 2009 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$