FXUS64 KLCH 142007
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
256 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2004

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT SLICING NORTH-SOUTH OVER WRN LA. THIS FRONT
IS ACTING IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MORE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
ZONE AREA. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER EASTERN
1/3 OF CWA. GOOD NEWS IS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD GRADUALLY
EASE EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. WILL HAVE HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN ZONES WITH
SHARP GRADIENT TO THE WEST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POPS OVER SE
TX.

MODELS HAVE TOTALLY FLIP-FLOPPED WITH PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH
DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOVING
UPPER TROF AND WEAK FRONT TO OUR EAST. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF TSTMS
OVER EXTREME EASTERN ZONES THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT OVERALL MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY OVER THE WEEKEND.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY AND
EFFECTIVELY WASHES OUT. REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE A SUMMERTIME
PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...BUT
WITH SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE A GOOD
BET EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LCH  65  84  65  85 /  40  10   0  20
BPT  64  84  65  86 /  20  10   0  10
AEX  64  83  63  84 /  70  20   0  20
LFT  67  83  65  84 /  70  30   0  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT LAZ028-029-032-033-043>045-052>055.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

WILEY