FXUS64 KBRO 090127 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 727 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2009 .DISCUSSION...SOME SHRAS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES ATTM. KBRO DOPPLER VAD WINDS SHOW SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 40 TO 45 KNOTS AT 2K TO 6K FT NOW...AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS REMAIN HIGH...AT 20 TO 30 MPH...BUT BELOW WIND ADVISORY LIMITS. THEREFORE...THE WIND ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED AT 635 PM CDT AND WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH MONDAY...BUT BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADVISORY. CURRENT DEEP SOUTH TX ZNS HAVE BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. && .PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 123 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2009/WINDS WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM. LOCALLY STRONGER SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE UPSTREAM ARE THE REASON FOR THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT WILL ENHANCE THE LLJ OVERNIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR DOWNWARD MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL LIFT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DEPART FROM ITS UPPER SUPPORT AND WILL TRAIL INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ALTHOUGH THE FRONT COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO VEER LOCAL WINDS SLIGHTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND MAY HELP WARM TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF EXTRA DEGREES MORE THAN OTHERWISE. WINDS ON MONDAY IN GENERAL SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY...BUT WILL STILL BE MODERATE. WINDS WILL PICK UP ON TUESDAY ONCE MORE AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...WITH PRESSURE FALLS DEVELOPING IN WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE OLD COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND WEST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL INDEED COOL A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TO NEAR NORMAL...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER PERSISTING IN THE MID LEVELS. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL SET UP WEAK RETURN FLOW... WITH THE PREVIOUS FRONT BEING DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL SIT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY... AWAITING THE LATE DAY PUSH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARER SKIES THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS SITUATION WON'T LAST LONG HOWEVER...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SETTING UP OVER THE WEST COAST. THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THIS WEEK APPEARS TO BE A PROGRESSIVE ONE...WITH A SUCCESSION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FROM THE PACIFIC MOVING INLAND. THE STORM SYSTEMS WILL FLOW MOSTLY FROM WEST TO EAST...OR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE FRONTS WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH OCCASIONALLY... BUT WILL LACK SUPPORT ALOFT...AND THEREFORE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THEM...THOUGH WEAK TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE CHANGES WILL STILL OCCUR. && .MARINE...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 31 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 7.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 19 CST/01 UTC. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CONTINUED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND...AS THE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS PERSIST. AN IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TRIO OF REGIONAL AIRPORTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS. && .FIRE WEATHER...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA FOR MONDAY. HOWEVER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE POSTED TOMORROW IN ANTICIPATION OF RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS TUESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 81 68 80 / 10 10 10 10 BROWNSVILLE 69 82 66 80 / 10 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 66 83 66 83 / 10 10 10 10 MCALLEN 66 87 66 84 / 10 10 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 59 84 62 87 / 10 10 10 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 76 66 77 / 10 10 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ248>257. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170- 175. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE 58/66