FXUS63 KJKL 061936 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 335 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2003 CURRENT SFC MAP FEATURES LOW PRESSURE IN LOUISIANA WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DANGLING ALONG THE GULF STATES. 12Z UPPER AIR ALONG WITH SAT PICS INDICATE TWO WELL DEFINED 5H LOWS...ONE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE OTHER SPINNING JUST NORTH OF MONTANA. RIDGING HAS KEPT THE CLOUDS FROM SPREADING INTO THE CWA TODAY. CLOUD AS WELL AS PRECIP SHIELD WILL EVENTUALLY WORK IT'S WAY IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS VERY AMPLE AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THERE DESPITE A MAINLY ANTICIPATED STRATIFORM EVENT. QPF AMOUNTS SEEM TO BE THE BIGGEST DIFFERING CONCERN. ETA TRYING TO BULLSEYE AN AREA OF PRECIP OUT TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA IN RESPONSE TO PROGGED VORT MAX...ALONG WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM A RRQ JET LIFTING NORTHEAST. NOT TOO SURE ABOUT THIS ENHANCEMENT AS ETA DID NOT INITIALIZE THAT WELL AT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND VORT MAX GENERATED DOES NOT SEEM TO REFLECT MUCH OF A TROUGHY RESPONSE IN THE 5H FLOW. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS CONTINUES TO OVER-EMPHASIZE THE CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT FACTOR...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GFS WANTS TO INITIATE AN EMBEDDED S/WV/VORT MAX EARLY IN THE PERIOD TOMORROW. THE QPF RESULTS ARE ALARMING AS 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES OF PRECIP IS SLUNG OUR WAY. THE 6Z RUN DIDN'T HAVE THIS KIND OF RESPONSE QPF WISE AND AM LEARY OF THIS SOLUTION. 1 TO 1.5 INCHES SEEMS PRETTY REASONABLE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS OF 1.75 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WITH FFG VALUES IN OUR FAVOR...HYDRO PROBLEMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM TYPE FLOODING POTENTIAL...HOWEVER DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...A CLOSE MONITOR OF THE SITUATION WILL BE WARRANTED. STILL WANT TO KEEP A MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW AS EXPECTED AMOUNTS CONCUR WITH THAT WORDING. NEXT SYSTEM TO CLOSELY FOLLOW ON SUNDAY. STRONG S/WV TO PLOW THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE LINE WILL INITIATE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT AFTERNOON POPS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 85 IN MOST PLACES. MAIN LINE STILL LOOKS TO AFFECT OUR AREA AFTER SUNSET. DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AMPLIFIED FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL PATTERN. PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW WED-FRI ALONG WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK. .JKL...NONE. GEOGERIAN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1152 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2003 CLD COVER SLOW TO MOVE IN OVER FA...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB FASTER THEN INITIALLY EXPECTED. AT 11 AM 70S ALREADY POPPING UP AT MANY STATIONS ACROSS REGION. SAT CURRENTLY SHOWS DRY AIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. PRECIPITATION STILL ON TAP FOR THIS EVENING...BUT COULD BE LATER THEN EXPECTED. GRIDS ALREADY ADJUSTED AND UPDATE SENT TO BUMP AFTERNOON TEMPS UP AND REDUCE CLOUD COVER. WINDS ALSO TWEAKED. MCLANE --------------------------------------------------------------------- 900 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2003 QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST SKY COVER IN WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF FA. SAT SHOWS CLOUD COVER ERODING AS IT MOVES INTO REGION. USED INCREASING CLOUDS WORDING...AS STILL EXPECT MORE COVER AS DAY PROGRESSES. NO OTHER CHANGES ATM. MCLANE --------------------------------------------------------------------- 530 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2003 FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE POPS TONIGHT AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL MS/AL/GA. OVERRUNNING RAINFALL IS OCCURRING AS EVIDENT ON REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR ALONG THE TN/AL BORDER...AND INTO WESTERN TN AND SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SOON MAKE ITS WAY NORTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW REALLY PICKS UP SPEED. VERY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND IS PRETTY MUCH A SURE BET TO GIVE US RAINFALL...POSSIBLY HEAVY WITH DEEP MOISTURE ADVANCING TOWARD US. NGM MOS IS HAVING BIG TROUBLE WITH PLACEMENT PICKING UP ON THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIFTING MOISTURE. THE NGM MOS IS ONLY GOING WITH A 60 POP OVER JKL AND LOZ (AND THAT IS ROUNDING NUMBERS UP). NGM IS ALSO GIVING LIGHT RAINFALL FOR TONIGHT. OBVIOUSLY I THINK NGM IS COMPLETELY OUT TO LUNCH AND HAVE DISCOUNTED ITS SOLUTION. MAV MOS IS BETTER WITH 80 POPS...BUT I AM CONFIDENT OF MEASURING RAINFALL. GFS SOLUTION IS EXTREMELY QUESTIONABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS FEEDBACK PROBLEMS PREVAIL. THE ETA PRODUCTS ARE VERY WELL INITIALIZED AND ARE CLEARLY THE MOST ON TRACK. GOING 100 AGAINST 60 POPS FROM NGM MOS TONIGHT...AS THIS MODEL SEEMS TO BE LIMPING ALONG. TOOK OUT POPS ON MONDAY AS GFS SOLUTION LOOKS QUITE DRY. HEINLEIN --------------------------------------------------------------------- 900 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2003 WITH THE CU HAVING DRIED UP AND CIRRUS NOT HERE YET...SKIES ARE CLEAR. WILL UPDATE TO GO WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT VERSUS PARTLY CLOUDY. WILL ALSO RAISE MIN TEMPS IN NORTHWEST BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. SEE NO REASON WHY THEY WOULD BE AS COLD AS OUR VALLEYS... WITH LEX MOS SHOWING LOWER TO MID 50S. ALSO...WITH SURFACE HIGH PASSING OVER TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD GO CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE IN ALL AREAS AND WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. HAL $$