FXUS61 KILN 232339
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
740 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

.AVIATION (00Z-00Z)...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT.  FOG WILL FORM MORE READILY TONIGHT 
DUE TO INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE 
IN ON FRIDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT WASHES OUT AS IT RUNS INTO THE HIGH.  
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH A SLIGHT 
INCREASE IN SPEED. 

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH 
DESCENT SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VLY.   SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
CLEAR SKIES.  HOWEVER WITH TDS A BIT HIGHER AND A WEAK SRLY FLOW HAS 
MADE THE SKY MORE HAZY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

MODELS ARE IN DESCENT AGREEMENT WITH WORKING SURFACE HIGH OFF TO THE 
EAST AND BRINGING COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  
HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND ITS 
OVERNIGHT TIMING.

MAV TEMPS ARE IN DESCENT SHAPE.  WENT A BIT COOLER OVERNIGHT AS MAV 
HAS BEEN TOO WARM FOR THE FIRST PERIOD FOR THE LAST SEVERAL 
FORECASTS.  ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ON FRIDAY. 


&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...SO HAVE OPTED TO USE THE 
00Z GFS MODEL IN TERMS OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES.  REGION WILL BE WEDGED 
BETWEEN HURRICANE JEANNE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE 
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME.  DRY WX 
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ONCE JEANNE MOVES 
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...A MID LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO 
THE REGION...CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE NEXT 
CHC FOR PCPN WILL BE ON THURSDAY AS AN UPR LVL LOW AND SFC TROF MOVE 
THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS.
&&


.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$
AVIATION: RANDALL
SHORT TERM: TIPTON
LONG TERM: SFH