|
Table S–1. Budget Totals
(Dollar amounts in billions)
|
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Budget
Totals: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Receipts |
2,154 |
2,285 |
2,416 |
2,590 |
2,714 |
2,878 |
3,035 |
Outlays |
2,472 |
2,709 |
2,770 |
2,814 |
2,922 |
3,061 |
3,240 |
Deficit |
−318 |
−423 |
−354 |
−223 |
−208 |
−183 |
−205 |
Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) |
12,290 |
13,030 |
13,761 |
14,521 |
15,296 |
16,102 |
16,955 |
Budget
Totals as a Percent of GDP: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Receipts |
17.5% |
17.5% |
17.6% |
17.8% |
17.7% |
17.9% |
17.9% |
Outlays |
20.1% |
20.8% |
20.1% |
19.4% |
19.1% |
19.0% |
19.1% |
Deficit |
−2.6% |
−3.2% |
−2.6% |
−1.5% |
−1.4% |
−1.1% |
−1.2% |
Table S–2. Discretionary Totals
(Net budget authority; dollar amounts in billions)
|
2006 Enacted |
2007 Request |
Change: 2006–2007 |
Dollar |
Percent |
|
|
|
|
|
Discretionary
budget authority: |
|
|
|
|
Department of Defense |
410.8 |
439.3 |
28.5 |
6.9% |
Homeland Security (non-Department
of Defense) |
32.1 |
33.1 |
1.0 |
3.3% |
Other Operations of Government |
400.4 |
398.3 |
−2.2 |
−0.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
Total,
Discretionary budget authority |
843.3 |
870.7 |
27.3 |
3.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
Enacted
supplemental and emergency funding: |
|
|
|
|
Global War on Terror |
50.0 |
|
|
|
Hurricane Response 1 |
4.6 |
|
|
|
Pandemic Influenza Preparedness |
3.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total,
Enacted supplemental and emergency funding |
58.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Estimated future emergency requests: 2 |
|
|
|
|
Global
War on Terror |
70.0 |
50.0 |
|
|
Hurricane
Response |
18.0 |
— |
|
|
Pandemic
Influenza Preparedness |
— |
2.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total, Estimated future emergency requests |
88.0 |
52.3 |
|
|
1 In
total, $84.5 billion has been provided in 2005 and 2006 for response to the
Gulf Coast Hurricanes through both discretionary and mandatory emergency funding,
including amounts for the Social Services Block Grant and Flood Insurance.
2 Estimated
future emergency needs are included as Allowances in the 2007 Budget. The
Administration anticipates transmitting official requests for these funds
at a later time.
Table S–3. Growth in Discretionary Budget Authority by Major
Agency
(Net budget authority; dollar amounts in billions)
Agency |
2001 Actual |
2006 Enacted |
2007 Request |
Growth: |
2006–2007 |
Average |
Cumulative |
Dollar |
Percent |
2001–2007 |
2001–2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Agriculture |
19.2 |
21.1 |
19.7 |
−1.4 |
−6.5% |
0.4% |
2.5% |
Commerce |
5.1 |
6.4 |
6.1 |
−0.2 |
−3.7% |
3.1% |
20.4% |
Defense |
302.5 |
410.8 |
439.3 |
28.5 |
6.9% |
6.4% |
45.2% |
Education |
40.1 |
56.5 |
54.4 |
−2.1 |
−3.8% |
5.2% |
35.7% |
Energy |
20.0 |
23.5 |
23.6 |
0.0 |
0.1% |
2.7% |
17.6% |
Health and Human Services |
54.0 |
69.2 |
67.6 |
−1.6 |
−2.3% |
3.8% |
25.2% |
Homeland Security |
14.0 |
30.5 |
30.9 |
0.4 |
1.3% |
14.1% |
121.0% |
Housing and Urban Development |
28.4 |
34.3 |
33.6 |
−0.6 |
−1.8% |
2.9% |
18.7% |
Interior |
10.3 |
10.8 |
10.1 |
−0.6 |
−5.9% |
−0.2% |
−1.2% |
Justice |
18.4 |
21.0 |
19.5 |
−1.5 |
−7.2% |
1.0% |
6.0% |
Labor |
11.9 |
11.3 |
10.9 |
−0.4 |
−3.9% |
−1.5% |
−8.7% |
State and Other International
Programs |
21.7 |
30.2 |
33.9 |
3.7 |
12.2% |
7.7% |
55.8% |
Transportation |
14.6 |
14.6 |
13.2 |
−1.4 |
−9.4% |
−1.6% |
−9.3% |
Treasury |
10.3 |
11.5 |
11.6 |
0.1 |
0.5% |
1.9% |
12.3% |
Veterans Affairs |
22.4 |
33.1 |
35.7 |
2.6 |
8.0% |
8.1% |
59.5% |
Corps of Engineers |
4.7 |
5.3 |
4.7 |
−0.6 |
−11.2% |
0.2% |
1.0% |
Environmental Protection
Agency |
7.8 |
7.6 |
7.3 |
−0.3 |
−4.0% |
−1.1% |
−6.6% |
Executive Office of the
President |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
−0.0 |
−0.6% |
4.0% |
26.4% |
Judicial Branch |
4.0 |
5.3 |
5.9 |
0.5 |
9.9% |
6.7% |
47.9% |
Legislative Branch |
2.8 |
3.8 |
4.3 |
0.5 |
12.1% |
7.6% |
55.1% |
National Aeronautics and
Space Administration |
14.3 |
16.3 |
16.8 |
0.5 |
3.2% |
2.8% |
17.8% |
National Science Foundation |
4.4 |
5.6 |
6.0 |
0.4 |
7.9% |
5.2% |
35.9% |
Social Security Administration |
6.0 |
7.3 |
7.9 |
0.5 |
6.8% |
4.5% |
30.2% |
Other Agencies |
6.7 |
6.9 |
7.3 |
0.4 |
6.0% |
1.5% |
9.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total,
Discretionary Spending |
643.8 |
843.3 |
870.7 |
27.3 |
3.2% |
5.2% |
35.2% |
Note: Supplementals and emergencies, both enacted and anticipated,
are excluded.
Table S–4. Discretionary Funding By Appropriations Subcommittee
(Net budget authority in billions of dollars)
Appropriations Subcommittee |
2006 Enacted |
2007 Request |
Change 2006–2007 |
|
|
|
|
Agriculture and Rural
Development |
18.5 |
17.2 |
−1.3 |
Defense |
399.2 |
423.2 |
24.0 |
Energy and Water Development |
30.1 |
29.4 |
−0.7 |
Foreign Operations |
20.7 |
23.7 |
3.0 |
Homeland Security |
30.5 |
30.9 |
0.4 |
Interior and Environment |
25.9 |
25.2 |
−0.8 |
Labor, Health and Human
Services, and Education |
141.8 |
137.8 |
−4.0 |
Legislative Branch |
3.8 |
4.2 |
0.5 |
Military Quality of Life
and Veterans Affairs |
45.2 |
52.5 |
7.3 |
Science, State, Justice,
and Commerce |
58.7 |
59.7 |
1.0 |
Transportation, Treasury,
Housing and Urban Development, Judiciary, and District of Columbia |
68.8 |
67.1 |
−1.8 |
Allowances |
— |
−0.4 |
−0.4 |
|
|
|
|
Total,
excluding supplemental and emergency funding |
843.3 |
870.7 |
27.3 |
Notes: Supplementals and emergencies, both enacted and anticipated,
are excluded.
The House and Senate adopted different spending committee structures
in the 2006 appropriations season.
This table is consistent with the structures in which the 2006
appropriations bills were enacted.
Table S–5. Homeland Security Funding By Agency
(Budget authority in millions of dollars)
|
2006 |
2007 Request |
Enacted |
Supplemental |
|
|
|
|
Homeland
Security Funding: |
|
|
|
Agriculture |
564 |
— |
650 |
Commerce |
181 |
— |
218 |
Defense-Military (DOD) 1 |
16,441 |
— |
16,699 |
Energy |
1,704 |
— |
1,700 |
Health and Human Services |
4,300 |
— |
4,565 |
Homeland Security |
25,503 |
173 |
27,776 |
Interior |
56 |
— |
55 |
Justice |
2,976 |
16 |
3,279 |
State |
1,107 |
— |
1,213 |
Transportation |
182 |
— |
206 |
Treasury |
117 |
— |
134 |
Veterans Affairs |
310 |
— |
314 |
Corps of Engineers |
72 |
— |
43 |
Environmental Protection
Agency |
129 |
— |
183 |
General Services Administration |
99 |
— |
96 |
National Aeronautics and
Space Administration |
213 |
— |
203 |
National Science Foundation |
344 |
— |
387 |
Smithsonian Institution |
83 |
— |
80 |
Social Security Administration |
177 |
— |
184 |
Other Agencies |
304 |
— |
297 |
|
|
|
|
Total,
Homeland Security Funding 2 |
54,862 |
189 |
58,282 |
|
|
|
|
Less, Defense-Military
(DOD) |
−16,441 |
— |
−16,699 |
Less, Mandatory Homeland
Security Funding 3 |
−2,232 |
— |
−2,455 |
Less, Discretionary Fee-Funded
Activities 4 |
−4,127 |
— |
−6,019 |
|
|
|
|
Net
Non-DOD Discretionary Homeland Security 2 |
32,062 |
189 |
33,109 |
1 Reported DOD homeland security funding has been revised upward in all years to reflect better estimating methodologies for DOD homeland security programs. See the
Homeland Security Funding Analysis chapter of the Analytical Perspectives volume for more details.
2 Amounts are rounded to the nearest million at the account level, which accounts for any discrepancies with the Homeland Security Funding Analysis chapter in the Analytical Perspectives volume.
3 Mandatory homeland security programs include Agriculture Quarantine and Inspections, Border Protection, and Immigration Enforcement.
4 Discretionary fee-funded homeland security programs include Visa Processing, Airport Security, and Social Security physical and computer security measures.
Table S–6. Mandatory Proposals
(In millions of dollars)
|
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
Total |
2007–2011 |
2007–2016 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Reforms
Resulting in Savings: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Agriculture: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Commodity Program changes |
— |
−1,081 |
−1,079 |
−945 |
−965 |
−917 |
−4,988 |
−8,933 |
Restrict Food Stamp categorical
eligibility |
— |
−76 |
−154 |
−155 |
−159 |
−162 |
−706 |
−1,585 |
Allow State Food Stamp
agencies to access the National Directory of New Hires (NDNH) |
— |
— |
−1 |
−1 |
−1 |
−1 |
−4 |
−9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Subtotal, Agriculture |
— |
−1,157 |
−1,234 |
−1,101 |
−1,125 |
−1,080 |
−5,698 |
−10,527 |
Defense: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Increase National Defense
Stockpile Sales |
— |
−1 |
−50 |
−72 |
−80 |
−96 |
−299 |
−347 |
Energy: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Repeal Oil and Gas Research
and Development Program |
— |
−20 |
−40 |
−50 |
−50 |
−50 |
−210 |
−460 |
Health and Human Services: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Medicare |
— |
−2,452 |
−5,485 |
−7,948 |
−9,343 |
−10,663 |
−35,891 |
−105,016 |
Medicaid/State Children’s
Health Insurance Program |
— |
−723 |
−876 |
−1,062 |
−1,116 |
−1,168 |
−4,945 |
−11,859 |
Child Support Enforcement |
— |
−2 |
−1 |
−3 |
−5 |
−6 |
−17 |
−60 |
Child Welfare Program
option |
— |
22 |
5 |
55 |
−27 |
−61 |
−6 |
−1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Subtotal, Health and Human
Services |
— |
−3,155 |
−6,357 |
−8,958 |
−10,491 |
−11,898 |
−40,859 |
−116,936 |
Interior: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Arctic National Wildlife
Refuge lease bonuses: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
State of Alaska’s
share: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Receipts |
— |
— |
−3,502 |
−2 |
−503 |
−3 |
−4,010 |
−4,025 |
Expenditures |
— |
— |
3,502 |
2 |
503 |
3 |
4,010 |
4,025 |
Federal share: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Receipts |
— |
— |
−3,502 |
−2 |
−503 |
−3 |
−4,010 |
−4,025 |
Amend Bureau of Land Management
(BLM) Land Sale Authority |
— |
−1 |
−28 |
−40 |
−42 |
−71 |
−182 |
−351 |
Eliminate BLM Range Improvement
Fund |
— |
−7 |
−10 |
−10 |
−10 |
−10 |
−47 |
−97 |
Recover Pick-Sloan Project
Cost |
— |
−23 |
−23 |
−23 |
−23 |
−23 |
−115 |
−230 |
Repeal Energy Bill Fee
Prohibition |
— |
−5 |
−27 |
−27 |
−27 |
−24 |
−110 |
−209 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Subtotal, Interior |
— |
−36 |
−3,590 |
−102 |
−605 |
−131 |
−4,464 |
−4,912 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Labor: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Reform Pension Benefit
Guaranty Corporation |
— |
— |
−4,195 |
−4,181 |
−4,164 |
−4,140 |
−16,680 |
−37,056 |
Unemployment Insurance
Integrity legislation: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Benefit Payment Recoveries |
— |
— |
−482 |
−515 |
−365 |
−376 |
−1,738 |
−3,774 |
Reform Federal Employee’s
Compensation Act |
— |
−3 |
−8 |
−10 |
−11 |
−13 |
−45 |
−140 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Subtotal, Labor |
— |
−3 |
−4,685 |
−4,706 |
−4,540 |
−4,529 |
−18,463 |
−40,970 |
Treasury: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Eliminate 10-year Statute-of-Limitations
on Non-Tax Debt |
— |
−11 |
−6 |
−6 |
−6 |
−6 |
−35 |
−65 |
Federal Communications
Commission (FCC): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Extend Spectrum Auction
Authority |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
−1,000 |
Terminate the Telecommunications
Development Fund |
— |
−5 |
−5 |
−6 |
−7 |
−7 |
−30 |
−65 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Subtotal, FCC |
— |
−5 |
−5 |
−6 |
−7 |
−7 |
−30 |
−1,065 |
Office of Personnel Management: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Amend Federal Employee
Health Benefits Program Statute |
— |
−34 |
−134 |
−231 |
−306 |
−367 |
−1,072 |
−3,431 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total, Reforms Resulting
in Savings |
— |
−4,422 |
−16,101 |
−15,233 |
−17,210 |
−18,164 |
−71,130 |
−178,713 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
User
Fee Proposals: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Agriculture: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Food Safety and Inspection
Service User Fees* |
— |
−105 |
−155 |
−148 |
−151 |
−154 |
−713 |
−1,535 |
Grain Inspection User
Fees* |
— |
−20 |
−20 |
−21 |
−21 |
−22 |
−104 |
−220 |
Animal Plant Health Inspection
User Fees* |
— |
−8 |
−11 |
−11 |
−12 |
−12 |
−54 |
−117 |
Agricultural Marketing
Service User Fees* |
— |
−2 |
−2 |
−2 |
−2 |
−2 |
−10 |
−20 |
Federal Crop Insurance
User Fees* |
— |
— |
−15 |
−15 |
−15 |
−15 |
−60 |
−135 |
Health and Human Services: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FDA User Fee Proposal* |
— |
−26 |
−27 |
−27 |
−28 |
−28 |
−135 |
−286 |
Homeland Security: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Extend Customs User Fees |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
−5,830 |
Treasury: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Alcohol and Tobacco Tax
and Trade Bureau User Fees* |
— |
−29 |
−29 |
−29 |
−29 |
−29 |
−145 |
−290 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pesticide Fees* |
— |
−56 |
−66 |
−53 |
−53 |
−53 |
−281 |
−546 |
Pre-Manufacturing Notification
Fee* |
— |
−4 |
−8 |
−8 |
−8 |
−8 |
−36 |
−76 |
FCC: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Authorize Spectrum License
Fees |
— |
−50 |
−150 |
−300 |
−300 |
−400 |
−1,200 |
−3,625 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total, User Fee Proposals |
— |
−300 |
−483 |
−614 |
−619 |
−723 |
−2,739 |
−12,680 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Subtotal,
Reforms Resulting in Savings and User Fee Proposals |
— |
−4,722 |
−16,584 |
−15,847 |
−17,829 |
−18,887 |
−73,869 |
−191,393 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Program
Augmentations: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Agriculture: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Exclude retirement savings
in Food Stamp Program |
— |
47 |
96 |
145 |
149 |
152 |
589 |
1,415 |
Energy: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bonneville Power Administration
borrowing authority |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
200 |
Health and Human Services: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Medicaid/State Children's
Health Insurance Program |
— |
1,227 |
686 |
539 |
425 |
601 |
3,478 |
6,773 |
Cover the Kids outreach
grants |
— |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
500 |
1,000 |
Grants to States for chronically
ill |
— |
250 |
375 |
493 |
506 |
523 |
2,146 |
5,000 |
Temporary Assistance for
Needy Families |
— |
40 |
149 |
425 |
473 |
488 |
1,575 |
4,070 |
Foster Care District of
Columbia Federal Medical Assistance Percentage Rate |
— |
5 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
29 |
65 |
Treasury: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Extend the Rum Carryover
for Puerto Rico |
69 |
95 |
24 |
— |
— |
— |
119 |
119 |
Office of Personnel Management: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Make Changes to Federal
Retirement Improvement Act |
— |
— |
3 |
5 |
7 |
9 |
24 |
85 |
Social Security Administration: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Extend Supplemental Security
Income eligibility for refugees |
— |
70 |
75 |
74 |
— |
— |
219 |
219 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total, Program Augmentations |
69 |
1,834 |
1,514 |
1,787 |
1,666 |
1,879 |
8,679 |
18,946 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
User
Fee Proposals with Mandatory Spending: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Marketing Agreements and
Orders User Fees: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Receipts |
— |
−12 |
−12 |
−13 |
−13 |
−13 |
−63 |
−132 |
Spending |
— |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
63 |
132 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net effect |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Increase Indian Gaming
Commission Fees 1 |
— |
— |
4 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
19 |
44 |
Foreign Labor Certification
User Fees: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Receipts |
— |
−35 |
−35 |
−35 |
−35 |
−35 |
−175 |
−350 |
Spending |
— |
35 |
35 |
35 |
35 |
35 |
175 |
350 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net effect |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Immigration Examination
Fees: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Receipts |
— |
−31 |
−31 |
−31 |
−31 |
−31 |
−155 |
−310 |
Spending |
— |
25 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
149 |
304 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net effect |
— |
−6 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
−6 |
−6 |
Army Corps of Engineers:
Additional Recreation User Fees and Contributions: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Receipts |
— |
−9 |
−17 |
−17 |
−17 |
−17 |
−77 |
−162 |
Spending |
— |
— |
8 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
58 |
143 |
Net effect |
— |
−9 |
−9 |
−1 |
— |
— |
−19 |
−19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total, User Fee Proposals
with Mandatory Spending |
— |
−15 |
−5 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
−6 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Subtotal,
Including Program Augmentations and User Fee Proposals with Mandatory Spending |
69 |
−2,903 |
−15,075 |
−14,056 |
−16,158 |
−17,003 |
−65,196 |
−172,428 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Further
Hurricane Response: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
National Flood Insurance
(emergency) |
5,040 |
560 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
560 |
560 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Social
Security Personal Accounts (off-budget) |
— |
— |
— |
— |
24,182 |
57,429 |
81,611 |
712,144 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Outlay
Effects of Tax Proposals: 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Health Tax Credit |
— |
720 |
1,250 |
1,679 |
1,876 |
2,015 |
7,540 |
19,778 |
Child Tax Credit |
— |
— |
−383 |
−368 |
−422 |
−427 |
−1,600 |
−3,897 |
Earned Income Tax Credit |
— |
−188 |
4 |
−68 |
−79 |
−69 |
−400 |
−903 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total, Outlay Effects
of Tax Proposals |
— |
532 |
871 |
1,243 |
1,375 |
1,519 |
5,540 |
14,978 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other
Mandatory Proposals: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Use Escrow Account for
USPS Retiree Health Benefits: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
On-budget effect |
−1,220 |
−1,203 |
−1,175 |
−1,140 |
−1,098 |
−1,049 |
−5,665 |
−10,138 |
Off-budget effect |
1,220 |
1,203 |
1,175 |
1,140 |
1,098 |
1,049 |
5,665 |
10,138 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unified budget effect |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Refinance Black Lung Disability
Trust Fund debt: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Black Lung Disability
Trust Fund |
— |
2,282 |
−450 |
−453 |
−461 |
−470 |
448 |
−3,069 |
Interest receipts on repayable
advances |
— |
−2,282 |
450 |
453 |
461 |
470 |
−448 |
3,069 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net effect |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
County Payments Safety
Net: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
County Payments |
— |
78 |
303 |
179 |
120 |
97 |
777 |
777 |
National Forest Land Sales |
— |
−78 |
−303 |
−179 |
−120 |
−97 |
−777 |
−777 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net effect |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Full-time Attendance Required
for Child’s Social Security Benefits at age 16 (off-budget) |
— |
−11 |
−84 |
−150 |
−155 |
−159 |
−559 |
−1,461 |
Enforcement of Windfall
Elimination Provision/Government Pension Offset (off-budget) |
— |
— |
— |
— |
−133 |
−294 |
−427 |
−2,431 |
Replace Disability Insurance/Worker’s
Comp Offset with Uniform Offset (off-budget) |
— |
−8 |
−35 |
−50 |
−63 |
−72 |
−228 |
−402 |
Eliminate Lump Sum Death
Benefit (off-budget) |
— |
−171 |
−203 |
−205 |
−205 |
−205 |
−989 |
−2,014 |
Correct trust accounting
deficiencies in individual Indian money investments (non-paygo) |
6 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Indirect Effects (Third
Scorecard): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Amend Federal Employee
Health Benefits Program statute |
— |
28 |
86 |
139 |
182 |
220 |
655 |
2,035 |
Unemployment Insurance
Integrity legislation |
— |
— |
−58 |
−124 |
−129 |
−135 |
−446 |
−1,215 |
Food Stamp Impact of Commodity
Supplemental Food Program elimination |
— |
49 |
61 |
53 |
48 |
45 |
256 |
439 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Refine Department of Defense
Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Accrual Calculation |
— |
73 |
77 |
82 |
87 |
92 |
411 |
967 |
Temporary Assistance for
Needy Families impact of Social Services Block Grant reduction and Other |
— |
108 |
20 |
−116 |
−29 |
−12 |
−29 |
−84 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Subtotal, Indirect Effects |
— |
258 |
186 |
34 |
159 |
210 |
847 |
2,142 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total, Other Mandatory
Proposals |
6 |
68 |
−136 |
−371 |
−397 |
−520 |
−1,356 |
−4,166 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Grand
Total |
5,115 |
−1,744 |
−14,339 |
−13,182 |
9,004 |
41,426 |
21,166 |
551,103 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Memorandum: Savings Net
of Program Augmentations |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Medicaid/State Children's
Health Insurance Program |
— |
504 |
−190 |
−523 |
−691 |
−567 |
−1,467 |
−5,086 |
Food Stamp
Program |
— |
−29 |
−59 |
−11 |
−11 |
−11 |
−121 |
−179 |
* Once the fees are enacted, the Administration will work to reclassify them to offset discretionary spending beginning in 2008.
1 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the outlay effect is shown here. Excludes tax extenders assumed in the baseline.
Table S–7. Effect of Proposals on Receipts
(In millions of dollars)
|
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
Total |
2007–2011 |
2007– 2016 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Make
Permanent Certain Tax Cuts Enacted in 2001 and 2003 (assumed in the baseline): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dividends tax rate structure |
288 |
571 |
−1,329 |
−14,161 |
−537 |
−6,545 |
−22,001 |
−128,050 |
Capital gains tax rate
structure |
— |
— |
— |
−14,183 |
−5,519 |
−6,606 |
−26,308 |
−74,931 |
Expensing for small business |
— |
— |
−4,679 |
−6,498 |
−4,872 |
−3,853 |
−19,902 |
−32,620 |
Marginal individual income
tax rate reductions |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
−66,918 |
−66,918 |
−605,961 |
Child tax credit 1 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
−5,452 |
−5,452 |
−116,691 |
Marriage penalty relief 2 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
−4,968 |
−4,968 |
−37,578 |
Education incentives |
— |
— |
— |
— |
3 |
−1,098 |
−1,095 |
−10,960 |
Repeal of estate and generation-skipping
transfer taxes, and modification of gift taxes |
−205 |
−1,102 |
−1,728 |
−2,181 |
−2,676 |
−23,758 |
−31,445 |
−339,022 |
Modifications of pension
plans |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
−346 |
−346 |
−2,858 |
Other incentives for families
and children |
— |
— |
— |
— |
5 |
−170 |
−165 |
−4,362 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total make permanent certain
tax cuts enacted in 2001 and 2003 |
83 |
−531 |
−7,736 |
−37,023 |
−13,596 |
−119,714 |
−178,600 |
−1,353,033 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tax
Incentives: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Simplify
and encourage saving: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Expand tax-free savings
opportunities |
— |
4,796 |
10,407 |
7,507 |
3,970 |
−383 |
26,297 |
−122 |
Consolidate employer-based
savings accounts |
— |
— |
−542 |
−579 |
−618 |
−1,826 |
−3,565 |
−20,063 |
Establish Individual Development
Accounts (IDAs) |
— |
— |
−134 |
−286 |
−326 |
−300 |
−1,046 |
−1,763 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total simplify and encourage
saving |
— |
4,796 |
9,731 |
6,642 |
3,026 |
−2,509 |
21,686 |
−21,948 |
Encourage
entrepreneurship and investment: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Increase expensing for
small business |
— |
−2,522 |
−3,527 |
−2,625 |
−2,037 |
−1,645 |
−12,356 |
−18,713 |
Invest
in health care: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Expand health savings
accounts (HSAs) 3 |
— |
−1,978 |
−4,321 |
−6,201 |
−7,720 |
−8,826 |
−29,046 |
−87,212 |
Provide an above-the-line
deduction for high-deductible insurance premiums 4 |
— |
−2,519 |
−3,815 |
−3,840 |
−3,691 |
−3,668 |
−17,533 |
−38,127 |
Provide refundable tax
credit for the purchase of health insurance 5 |
— |
−254 |
−861 |
−1,194 |
−1,404 |
−1,362 |
−5,075 |
−11,154 |
Improve the Health Coverage
Tax Credit 6 |
— |
−1 |
−3 |
−4 |
−5 |
−5 |
−18 |
−51 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Allow the orphan drug
tax credit for certain pre-designation expenses 7 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total invest in health
care |
— |
−4,752 |
−9,000 |
−11,239 |
−12,820 |
−13,861 |
−51,672 |
−136,544 |
Provide
incentives for charitable giving: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Permit tax-free withdrawals
from IRAs for charitable contributions |
— |
−102 |
−510 |
−512 |
−501 |
−497 |
−2,122 |
−4,706 |
Expand and increase the
enhanced charitable deduction for contributions of food inventory |
— |
−44 |
−96 |
−106 |
−116 |
−127 |
−489 |
−1,345 |
Reform excise tax based
on investment income of private foundations |
— |
−56 |
−85 |
−90 |
−96 |
−102 |
−429 |
−1,074 |
Modify tax on unrelated
business taxable income of charitable remainder trusts |
— |
−1 |
−6 |
−6 |
−6 |
−6 |
−25 |
−62 |
Modify basis adjustment
to stock of S corporations contributing appreciated property |
— |
−3 |
−15 |
−21 |
−25 |
−28 |
−92 |
−301 |
Repeal the $150 million
limitation on qualified 501(c)(3) bonds |
— |
−2 |
−3 |
−6 |
−10 |
−11 |
−32 |
−81 |
Repeal certain restrictions
on the use of qualified 501(c)(3) bonds for residential rental property |
— |
−2 |
−5 |
−9 |
−16 |
−24 |
−56 |
−278 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total provide incentives
for charitable giving |
— |
−210 |
−720 |
−750 |
−770 |
−795 |
−3,245 |
−7,847 |
Strengthen
education: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Extend the above-the-line
deduction for qualified out-of pocket classroom expenses |
−17 |
−171 |
−178 |
−180 |
−183 |
−185 |
−897 |
−1,867 |
Provide
assistance to distressed areas: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Establish Opportunity
Zones |
— |
−221 |
−411 |
−439 |
−451 |
−482 |
−2,004 |
−4,960 |
Protect
the environment: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Extend permanently expensing
of brownfields remediation costs |
−98 |
−146 |
−163 |
−177 |
−168 |
−157 |
−811 |
−1,503 |
Restructure
assistance to New York City: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Provide tax incentives
for transportation infrastructure |
— |
−200 |
−200 |
−200 |
−200 |
−200 |
−1,000 |
−2,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Repeal certain New York
City Liberty Zone incentives |
— |
200 |
200 |
200 |
200 |
200 |
1,000 |
2,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total restructure assistance
to New York City |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total tax incentives |
−115 |
−3,226 |
−4,268 |
−8,768 |
−13,403 |
−19,634 |
−49,299 |
−193,382 |
Simplify
the Tax Laws for Families: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Clarify uniform definition
of a child 8 |
— |
17 |
66 |
50 |
32 |
48 |
213 |
395 |
Simplify EITC eligibility
requirement regarding filing status, presence of children, and work and immigration
status 9 |
— |
27 |
−24 |
−21 |
−26 |
−28 |
−72 |
−207 |
Reduce computational complexity
of refundable child tax credit 10 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total simplify the tax
laws for families |
— |
44 |
42 |
29 |
6 |
20 |
141 |
188 |
Strengthen
the Employer-Based Pension System: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ensure fair treatment
of older workers in cash balance conversions and protect defined benefit plans |
3 |
53 |
62 |
77 |
89 |
100 |
381 |
1,039 |
Strengthen funding for
single-employer pension plans |
— |
536 |
2,290 |
−153 |
−2,336 |
−1,611 |
−1,274 |
−9,180 |
Reflect market interest
rates in lump sum payments |
— |
— |
−3 |
−9 |
−17 |
−24 |
−53 |
−274 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total strengthen the employer-based
pension system |
3 |
589 |
2,349 |
−85 |
−2,264 |
−1,535 |
−946 |
−8,415 |
Close
Loopholes and Improve Tax Compliance: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Combat abusive foreign
tax credit transactions |
— |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
11 |
26 |
Modify the active trade
or business test |
— |
6 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
38 |
89 |
Impose penalties on charities
that fail to enforce conservation easements |
— |
3 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
37 |
91 |
Eliminate the special
exclusion from unrelated business taxable income for gain or loss on the sale
or exchange of certain brownfields |
— |
2 |
14 |
30 |
43 |
41 |
130 |
201 |
Limit related party interest
deductions |
— |
82 |
141 |
148 |
155 |
163 |
689 |
1,635 |
Clarify and simplify qualified
tuition programs |
— |
4 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
20 |
63 |
222 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total close loopholes
and improve tax compliance |
— |
98 |
185 |
209 |
232 |
244 |
968 |
2,264 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tax
Administration, Unemployment Insurance, and Other: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Improve
tax administration: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Implement IRS administrative
reforms and initiate cost saving measures 11 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Reduce the tax gap |
— |
259 |
351 |
311 |
296 |
308 |
1,525 |
3,560 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total improve tax administration |
— |
259 |
351 |
311 |
296 |
308 |
1,525 |
3,560 |
Strengthen
financial integrity of unemployment |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
insurance: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Strengthen the financial
integrity of the unemployment insurance system by reducing improper benefit
payments and tax avoidance 12 |
— |
— |
31 |
30 |
−106 |
−143 |
−188 |
−2,246 |
Extend unemployment insurance
surtax 12 |
— |
— |
1,085 |
1,490 |
1,526 |
1,564 |
5,665 |
710 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total strengthen integrity
of unemployment insurance 12 |
— |
— |
1,116 |
1,520 |
1,420 |
1,421 |
5,477 |
−1,536 |
Other
proposals: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Increase Indian gaming
activity fees |
— |
— |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
20 |
45 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total tax administration,
unemployment insurance, and other 12 |
— |
259 |
1,472 |
1,836 |
1,721 |
1,734 |
7,022 |
2,069 |
Modify
Energy Policy Act of 2005: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Repeal reduced recovery
period for natural gas distribution lines |
— |
12 |
44 |
80 |
112 |
125 |
373 |
833 |
Modify amortization for
certain geological and geophysical expenditures |
— |
38 |
140 |
206 |
169 |
88 |
641 |
730 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total modify Energy Policy
Act of 2005 |
— |
50 |
184 |
286 |
281 |
213 |
1,014 |
1,563 |
Promote
Trade: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Implement free trade agreements 12 |
— |
−236 |
−456 |
−593 |
−741 |
−832 |
−2,858 |
−8,200 |
Extend GSP 12 |
— |
−412 |
−617 |
−666 |
−723 |
−786 |
−3,204 |
−3,445 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total promote trade 12 |
— |
−648 |
−1,073 |
−1,259 |
−1,464 |
−1,618 |
−6,062 |
−11,645 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Extend
Expiring Provisions: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Minimum tax relief for
individuals |
−13,664 |
−20,495 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
−20,495 |
−20,495 |
Research & Experimentation
(R&E) tax credit |
−2,097 |
−4,601 |
−5,944 |
−6,889 |
−7,669 |
−8,340 |
−33,443 |
−86,440 |
Combined work opportunity/welfare-to-work
tax credit |
−80 |
−144 |
−86 |
−25 |
−7 |
−3 |
−265 |
−266 |
First-time homebuyer credit
for DC |
−1 |
−18 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
−18 |
−18 |
Authority to issue Qualified
Zone Academy Bonds |
−3 |
−8 |
−13 |
−18 |
−20 |
−20 |
−79 |
−179 |
Disclosure of tax return
information related to terrorist activity 7 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Excise tax on coal 12 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
750 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total extend expiring
provisions 12 |
−15,845 |
−25,266 |
−6,043 |
−6,932 |
−7,696 |
−8,363 |
−54,300 |
−106,648 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total
budget proposals, including proposals assumed in the baseline 12 |
−15,874 |
−28,631 |
−14,888 |
−51,707 |
−36,183 |
−148,653 |
−280,062 |
−1,667,039 |
Total
budget proposals, excluding proposals assumed in the baseline 12 |
−15,957 |
−28,100 |
−7,152 |
−14,684 |
−22,587 |
−28,939 |
−101,462 |
−314,006 |
1 Affects
both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay
effect is $45 million for 2011 and $51,809 million for 2007–2016.
2 Affects
both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay
effect is -$371 million for 2011 and $7,346 million for 2007–2016.
3 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt
effect is shown here. The outlay effect is $91 million for 2007, $178 million
for 2008, $253 million for 2009, $310 million for 2010, $352 million for 2011,
$1,184 million for 2007–2011 and $3,500 million for 2007–2016.
4 Affects both receipts
and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is
$244 million for 2007, $315 million for 2008, $319 million for 2009, $303
million for 2010, $305 million for 2011, $1,486 million for 2007–2011
and $3,200 million for 2007–2016.
5 Affects both receipts
and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is
$381 million for 2007, $747 million for 2008, $1,095 million for 2009, $1,249
million for 2010, $1,343 million for 2011, $4,815 million for 2007–2011
and $12,939 million for 2007–2016.
6 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is $4 million for 2007, $10 million for
2008, $12 million for 2009, $14 million for 2010, $15 million for 2011, $55
million for 2007–2011 and $139 million for 2007–2016.
7 No
net budgetary impact.
8 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is -$170 million for 2008, -$196 million for 2009, -$250 million for 2010, -$234 million for 2011, -$850 million for 2007–2011 and -$2,224 million for 2007–2016.
9 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect
is shown here. The outlay effect is -$188 million for 2007, $123 million
for 2008, $102 million for 2009, $96 million for 2010, $95 million for 2011,
$228 million for 2007–2011 and $687 million for 2007–2016.
10 Affects both receipts and outlays.
Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is -$332 million
for 2008, -$342 million for 2009, -$347 million for 2010, -$357 million for
2011, -$1,378 million for 2007–2011 and -$3,263 million for 2007–2016.
11 Outlays from this proposal
will be reflected in the Financial Management Service's budget.
12 Net of income offsets.
Table S–8. Receipts By Source—Summary
(In billions of dollars)
Source |
2005 Actual |
Estimate |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual income taxes |
927.2 |
997.6 |
1,096.4 |
1,208.5 |
1,268.4 |
1,370.1 |
1,466.9 |
Corporation income taxes |
278.3 |
277.1 |
260.6 |
268.5 |
277.1 |
282.0 |
292.0 |
Social insurance and retirement
receipts |
794.1 |
841.1 |
884.1 |
932.1 |
980.7 |
1,037.4 |
1,096.7 |
(On-budget) |
(216.6) |
(231.1) |
(241.8) |
(253.0) |
(264.5) |
(278.9) |
(295.1) |
(Off-budget) |
(577.5) |
(610.0) |
(642.3) |
(679.1) |
(716.2) |
(758.5) |
(801.6) |
Excise taxes |
73.1 |
73.5 |
74.6 |
75.9 |
77.5 |
78.9 |
83.1 |
Estate and gift taxes |
24.8 |
27.5 |
23.7 |
24.4 |
26.0 |
20.1 |
1.6 |
Customs duties |
23.4 |
25.9 |
28.1 |
31.4 |
31.7 |
34.0 |
36.2 |
Miscellaneous receipts |
33.0 |
42.8 |
48.4 |
49.4 |
52.7 |
55.7 |
58.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total
receipts |
2,153.9 |
2,285.5 |
2,415.9 |
2,590.3 |
2,714.2 |
2,878.2 |
3,034.9 |
(On-budget) |
(1,576.4) |
(1,675.5) |
(1,773.5) |
(1,911.1) |
(1,998.0) |
(2,119.7) |
(2,233.3) |
(Off-budget) |
(577.5) |
(610.0) |
(642.3) |
(679.1) |
(716.2) |
(758.5) |
(801.6) |
Table S–9. Economic Assumptions
(Fiscal years)
|
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross
Domestic Product (GDP): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nominal level, in billions
of dollars |
12,290 |
13,030 |
13,761 |
14,521 |
15,296 |
16,102 |
16,955 |
Percent change 1 |
6.5 |
6.0 |
5.6 |
5.5 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
Real GDP 1 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
GDP price index 1 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Consumer
Price Index 1 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unemployment
rate 2 |
5.2 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interest
rates: 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
91-day Treasury bill |
2.7 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
10-year Treasury note |
4.2 |
4.9 |
5.3 |
5.5 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
1 Year-over-year percent change.
2 Annual averages, percent.
Table S–10. Comparison of Economic Assumptions
(Calendar years)
|
Projections |
Average 2006–2011 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GDP
(billions of current dollars): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2007 Budget |
13,210 |
13,949 |
14,713 |
15,493 |
16,310 |
17,177 |
|
CBO January |
13,263 |
13,960 |
14,696 |
15,455 |
16,208 |
16,954 |
|
Blue Chip Consensus January 1 |
13,237 |
13,939 |
14,703 |
15,505 |
16,372 |
17,280 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Real
GDP (chain-weighted): 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2007 Budget |
3.4 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.2 |
CBO January |
3.6 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
3.3 |
3.0 |
2.8 |
3.3 |
Blue Chip Consensus January 1 |
3.4 |
3.1 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chain-weighted
GDP Price Index: 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2007 Budget |
2.4 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
CBO January |
2.4 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
Blue Chip Consensus January 1 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Consumer
Price Index (all-urban): 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2007 Budget |
3.0 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
CBO January |
2.8 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
Blue Chip Consensus January 1 |
2.9 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unemployment
rate: 3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2007 Budget |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
CBO January |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.1 |
Blue Chip Consensus January 1 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interest
rates: 3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
91-day
Treasury bills: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2007 Budget |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
CBO January |
4.5 |
4.5 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
Blue Chip Consensus January 1 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10-year
Treasury notes: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2007 Budget |
5.0 |
5.3 |
5.5 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
5.4 |
CBO January |
5.1 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
Blue Chip Consensus January 1 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Blue Chip Economic Indicators,
Aspen Publishers, Inc.
1 January 2006 Blue Chip Consensus forecast for 2006 and 2007; Blue Chip October 2005 long-run extension for 2008—2011.
2 Year-over-year percent changes.
3 Annual averages, percent.
Table S–11. Budget Summary by Category
(In billions of dollars)
|
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Outlays: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Discretionary: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DOD military |
473 |
510 |
503 |
471 |
471 |
484 |
499 |
Homeland security |
30 |
32 |
34 |
35 |
36 |
38 |
40 |
Other |
465 |
490 |
492 |
473 |
468 |
461 |
455 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total,Discretionary |
968 |
1,032 |
1,029 |
980 |
975 |
983 |
994 |
Mandatory: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Social Security: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Current program |
519 |
550 |
581 |
612 |
645 |
683 |
722 |
Personal accounts |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
24 |
57 |
Medicare |
294 |
338 |
387 |
399 |
421 |
447 |
489 |
Medicaid and SCHIP |
187 |
198 |
205 |
218 |
233 |
250 |
270 |
Other |
320 |
370 |
320 |
332 |
355 |
367 |
386 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total, Mandatory |
1,320 |
1,457 |
1,494 |
1,562 |
1,655 |
1,771 |
1,924 |
Net Interest |
184 |
220 |
247 |
272 |
291 |
307 |
322 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total Outlays |
2,472 |
2,709 |
2,770 |
2,814 |
2,922 |
3,061 |
3,240 |
Revenues |
2,154 |
2,285 |
2,416 |
2,590 |
2,714 |
2,878 |
3,035 |
Deficit |
−318 |
−423 |
−354 |
−223 |
−208 |
−183 |
−205 |
Table S–12. Current Services Baseline Summary by Category
(In billions of dollars)
|
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Outlays: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Discretionary: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DOD military |
473 |
480 |
440 |
438 |
445 |
456 |
472 |
Homeland security |
30 |
32 |
34 |
35 |
35 |
36 |
38 |
Other |
465 |
486 |
488 |
484 |
493 |
498 |
507 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total, Discretionary |
968 |
998 |
962 |
957 |
973 |
990 |
1,017 |
Mandatory: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Social Security |
519 |
550 |
581 |
612 |
645 |
683 |
723 |
Medicare |
294 |
338 |
390 |
405 |
429 |
457 |
500 |
Medicaid and SCHIP |
187 |
198 |
205 |
219 |
234 |
251 |
270 |
Other |
320 |
365 |
319 |
340 |
359 |
371 |
390 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total, Mandatory |
1,320 |
1,451 |
1,495 |
1,575 |
1,668 |
1,762 |
1,883 |
Net Interest |
184 |
219 |
244 |
266 |
284 |
298 |
310 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total Outlays |
2,472 |
2,669 |
2,701 |
2,798 |
2,925 |
3,050 |
3,210 |
Revenues |
2,154 |
2,301 |
2,444 |
2,597 |
2,729 |
2,901 |
3,064 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Deficit |
−318 |
−367 |
−257 |
−201 |
−196 |
−149 |
−146 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
On-budget deficit |
−494 |
−549 |
−449 |
−416 |
−428 |
−402 |
−420 |
Off-budget surplus |
175 |
182 |
192 |
216 |
233 |
252 |
274 |
Table S–13. Federal Government Financing and Debt
(In billions of dollars)
|
Actual 2005 |
Estimate |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Financing: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unified budget deficit
(−) |
−318 |
−423 |
−354 |
−223 |
−208 |
−183 |
−205 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Financing other than the
change in debt held by the public: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net purchases (−)
of non-Federal securities by the National Railroad Retirement Investment Trust |
−2 |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
1 |
Changes in: 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Treasury operating cash
balance |
1 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Checks outstanding, etc. 2 |
17 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Seigniorage on coins |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Less: Net financing disbursements: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Direct loan financing
accounts |
−5 |
−16 |
−18 |
−19 |
−19 |
−19 |
−21 |
Guaranteed loan financing
accounts |
11 |
12 |
−1 |
−0 |
−0 |
−0 |
−1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total, financing other
than the change in debt held by the public |
22 |
−4 |
−18 |
−19 |
−18 |
−19 |
−20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total, requirement to
borrow from the public |
−297 |
−427 |
−373 |
−242 |
−226 |
−201 |
−225 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Change in debt held by
the public |
297 |
427 |
373 |
242 |
226 |
201 |
225 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Changes
in Debt Subject to Limitation: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Change in debt held by
the public |
297 |
427 |
373 |
242 |
226 |
201 |
225 |
Change in debt held by
Government accounts |
254 |
279 |
311 |
328 |
346 |
344 |
329 |
Change in other factors |
−13 |
* |
1 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total, change in debt
subject to statutory limitation |
538 |
707 |
685 |
570 |
574 |
548 |
557 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Debt
Subject to Statutory Limitation, End of Year: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Debt issued by Treasury |
7,879 |
8,586 |
9,270 |
9,841 |
10,413 |
10,959 |
11,514 |
Adjustment for discount,
premium, and coverage 3 |
−8 |
−8 |
−8 |
−8 |
−6 |
−4 |
−3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total, debt subject to
statutory limitation 4 |
7,871 |
8,578 |
9,262 |
9,833 |
10,407 |
10,955 |
11,512 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Debt
Outstanding, End of Year: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross Federal debt: 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Debt issued by Treasury |
7,879 |
8,586 |
9,270 |
9,841 |
10,413 |
10,959 |
11,514 |
Debt issued by other agencies |
26 |
26 |
25 |
25 |
24 |
23 |
23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total, gross Federal debt |
7,905 |
8,611 |
9,295 |
9,865 |
10,437 |
10,983 |
11,537 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Held by: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Debt held by Government
accounts |
3,313 |
3,593 |
3,904 |
4,232 |
4,578 |
4,922 |
5,251 |
Debt held by the public 6 |
4,592 |
5,019 |
5,391 |
5,633 |
5,859 |
6,061 |
6,286 |
As a percent of GDP |
37.4% |
38.5% |
39.2% |
38.8% |
38.3% |
37.6% |
37.1% |
* $500 million or less.
1 A
decrease in the Treasury operating cash balance (which is an asset) is a means
of financing a deficit and therefore has a positive sign. An increase in
checks outstanding (which is a liability) is also a means of financing a deficit
and therefore also has a positive sign.
2 Besides
checks outstanding, includes accrued interest payable on Treasury debt, uninvested
deposit fund balances, allocations of special drawing rights, and other
liability accounts; and, as an offset, cash and monetary assets (other than
the Treasury operating cash balance), other asset accounts, and profit
on sale of gold.
3 Consists mainly of Federal Financing Bank
debt (which is not subject to limit), the unamortized discount (less premium)
on public issues of Treasury notes and bonds (other than zero-coupon
bonds), and the unrealized discount on Government account series securities.
4 The statutory debt limit is $8,184 billion,
enacted on November 19, 2004.
5 Treasury
securities held by the public and zero-coupon bonds held by Government accounts
are almost all measured at sales price plus amortized discount or less amortized
premium. Agency debt securities are almost all measured at face value. Treasury
securities in the Government account series are otherwise measured at face
value less unrealized discount (if any).
6 At
the end of 2005, the Federal Reserve Banks held $736.4 billion of Federal
securities and the rest of the public held $3,855.9 billion. Debt held by
the Federal Reserve Banks is not estimated for future years.
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