FXUS64 KLUB 211018 CCA AFDLBB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 517 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 .SHORT TERM... MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SLIDES TO THE EAST. THE DRY LINE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MIX EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. 850 MB CONVERGENCE AXIS...WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS OCCURRED PAST FEW DAYS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE THUS EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST THEN PREVIOUSLY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. JV/08 .LONG TERM... EJECTING WESTERN TROF WILL CONTINUE PASSING NORTH OF AREA SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS RESULTING. HAVE INCREASED WINDS SOME SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND ADDED A BIT OF GUSTINESS. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUING TREND OF NOT MIXING DRYLINE QUITE AS AGGRESSIVELY EAST AS PREVIOUSLY...SO HAVE EDGED LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CLOSE TO THE LATEST SPC DAY TWO OUTLOOK POSITION...BUT STILL COVERING MAINLY EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. AGREE WITH LOW SEVERE THREAT...BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. TROF PASSING TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH DRYLINE LIKELY TO MIX EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT MUCH RECOVERY YET OF MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED STILL NEXT WEEK LEADING TO HOTTER WEATHER ONCE AGAIN... PROBABLY PEAKING NEXT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS IN PREVIOUS GRIDS AS NEXT WESTERN TROF MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND THEN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY CONCEIVABLY COULD LEAD TO LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ESPECIALLY GIVEN BUILD UP OF LARGER SURFACE BASED CAPES...BUT RIDGE APPEARS DOMINANT WITH CAPPING FAVORED AT THIS TIME. SHALLOW DRYLINE SLOSHING BACK WEST EACH NIGHT LIKELY TO BE A FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. MCQUEEN && .FIRE WEATHER... FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS A POSSIBILITY WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH ADEQUATE RH AND INCREASING WINDS...ALTHOUGH 20 FOOT WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT LACKING. WILL STUDY FURTHER PRIOR TO MORNING FWF ISSUANCE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 90 58 94 57 / 20 20 0 0 TULIA 91 62 93 60 / 20 20 10 10 PLAINVIEW 90 63 94 62 / 20 20 10 10 LEVELLAND 91 64 97 61 / 20 20 0 0 LUBBOCK 91 65 96 64 / 20 20 10 10 BROWNFIELD 92 66 96 64 / 20 20 0 0 CHILDRESS 91 67 96 67 / 10 20 20 20 SPUR 90 67 95 67 / 10 20 20 20 ASPERMONT 88 69 96 68 / 10 20 20 20 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 08/05