SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 29 1999
PROBLEMS OF THE DAY...FLUCTUATIONS IN MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE
GRADIENT.
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS... WATER VAPOR PIX SHOWING SOME DEBRIS CLOUD
FROM AN MCS OVER NORTHERN SONORA DRIFTING BY TO OUR SOUTH. ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE MAY CAUSE SOME AFTN CU OVR THE MTNS BUT RUC MODEL INDICATING
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AVBL FOR THIS CWA.
8H TEMPS, 5H HEIGHTS, AND THICKNESS CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU WED. LOW
CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE IN COASTAL AREAS DURING THE
NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...ONLY CLEARING BACK TO THE COASTLINE IN THE
AFTERNOON...DUE TO STRONG INVERSION AND STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPS
WILL NOT INCREASE MUCH IN COASTAL SXNS UNDER INFLUENCE OF COASTAL
CLOUDS...HOWEVER...HIGHER EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL WARM SOME
WED WITH MARINE LAYER REMAINING SQUASHED BY WARM SUBSIDENCE.
12Z AVN SHOWING A LITTLE COOLING FOR THU AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS DROPPING
IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING TROF IN PAC NW.
FOR THE EXTENDED...NEW AVN SHOWS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES DROPPING THU WITH
PAC NW TROF AND TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EXTENDED WITH A FEW
DEGREES COOLING DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND A
SLIGHTLY INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LAX 000. SWEET.
.LAX...NONE.
FXUS66 KSGX 292031 ca
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
855 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
CONVECTION IS ENDING EARLY TONIGHT...IN SPITE OF THE FACT THAT THE
TAIL END OF AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA FROM ABOUT THE CAPE TO VENICE. ATMOSPHERE HAS
STABILIZED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION...SO EXPECT THINGS TO REMAIN QUIET OVER LAND. OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE IS HELPING TO SPAWN SOME VERY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE AND MOVING NORTHEAST.
EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS VORT LOBE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND REMNANT VORTICITY OVER THE PENINSULA WEAKENS.
WILL UPDATE FORECAST SHORTLY TO REMOVE EVENING POPS. OTHERWISE...
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
MARINE...CURRENT FCST DEPICTS EXPECTED WINDS WELL. RUC AND MM5 SHOW
WINDS SHOULD VEER A BIT MORE N PTN AS SFC WV SLIPS FARTHER E. MID
LEVEL VORT AXIS THRU CENTRAL FL WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION IN
S WATERS AND WILL DECREASE COVERAGE TERMINOLOGY TO THE N.
.MLB...NONE.
KELLY/BLOTTMAN
FXUS72 KMFL 300056 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
223 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
IN THE SHORT TERM...ALL OF THE MODELS APPEAR TO FOCUS ON THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AREA FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOTH THE ETA AND
NGM MOVES AN AREA OF DYNAMICS ACROSS THAT AREA AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST BY THIS EVENING WHILE THE RUC SINKS A VORT CENTER MORE SOUTH
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE GEORGIA/NORTH FLORIDA COAST. SATELLITE AND
RADAR DATA SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE RUC SOLUTION WHICH FOCUS THE RAINFALL
MORE ON THE COASTAL AREAS. THE PRECIPITABLE H2O FROM THE
JACKSONVILLE 12Z SOUNDING WAS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN MONDAY(1.75 VS 2.18
INCHES) BUT THERE IS AMPLE MOISTURE TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LOCAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
WEDNESDAY THE MODELS MOVES THE SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RAINFALL WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY EAST OF THE AREA
WHILE FOCUSING THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE SEABREEZE INTERACTION WEDNESDAY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER THE FWC
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGH.
AMG 74/90/72/90 5434
SSI 75/85/75/87 5534
JAX 74/89/73/90 5534
GNV 72/89/71/90 4534 33
BLS
FXUS62 KMLB 291817 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1002 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
THE COMPLEX OFF ALONG THE NORTH GEORGIA COAST CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTH AND SEEMS TO BE GOING ALONG THE THE RUC SOLUTION WHICH
MOVES IT OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST BY MID AFTERNOON. THERE IS
SOME CONFLICT BETWEEN THE MESO ETA AND THE RUC WITH THE MESO ETA
MOVING A SECOND VORT CENTER OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. IN EITHER CASE EXPECT GOOD
AMOUNTS OF RAIN AGAIN TODAY WITH THE PRECIPITABLE H2O AROUND 1.75
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.
BLS
FXUS72 KMFL 291350 fl
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1000 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
BEEN BUSY TONIGHT...IMAGINE THAT!
SHORT WAVE AND MCC GENERATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH...THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE. THUS WILL LOWER POPS. SAME
STORY NORTH...BUT GUESS WHAT LURKES IN THE WESTERN WINGS. MCC MOVING
EAST ALONG FRONT OR WHATEVER YOU WISH TO CALL IT. DO WILL KEEP
20-40% POPS NORTH. IR SHOWS TRWS DEVELPOING ALONG BOUNDARY. 00Z
RAOBS SHOW PLENTY OF POTENTIAL LEFT. 00Z RUC DROPS MCC ESE. IR SAYS
NO, WILL GO EAST. ETA IMPLIES BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH GA
TONIGHT. ACCEPT IDEA. IR ALSO SHOWS TOPS WARMING. THUS EXPECT MCC TO
WEAKEN BUT WILL STILL GENERATE SOME POPS TOWARD MORING. DUE CLOUDS,
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FOG TO FORM...WILL ONLY MENTION PATCHY. TEMPS LOOK
OK.
.ATL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.
FXUS72 KFFC 300212 ga
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1110 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 1999
LATEST SFC ANALYS SHOWS SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA NEAR KDNS
WITH LLVL N/NWLY FLO PRVLG OVR CWA. VERY REFRESHING AIRMASS WITH
DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. 12Z UA ANALYS REVEALS H85 RDG AXIS
EXTENDG FM MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER INTO EASTERN KANSAS.
NATIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWG PCPN OVR DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA IN VCNTY OF H7
TROF AND BAROCLINIC ZN/WAA. 12Z OMAHA SOUNDG (K0AX) SHOWS LARGE
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION SO MUCH OF PCPN NOT REACHING GRND THOUGH
LATEST SFC OBS REVEAL SOME RAIN REACHING GRND OVR PTNS OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA. 12Z RUC BRINGS SOME LGT PCPN INTO SCNTRL IOWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH APPEARS OVERDONE GIVEN LOCATION OF HIGH/STRENGTH OF
DRY AIRMASS. RETURN FLOW PROGGED NOT TO BEGIN OVR CWA UNTIL TNGT.
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD DVLPG OVR MUCH OF NRN HALF OF CWA WITH 12Z KDVN
SHOWG SOME LLVL MOISTURE THRU 3000 FT. MID/HIGH LVL CLDS SURGING
RAPIDLY E ON HEELS OF H5-H3 JET OF 50-70 KTS NOSING INTO CNTRL IOWA
AND NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI. WITH ALL BEING SAID WILL ADJUST SKY
WORDING FROM MOSTLY SUNNY TO EITHER PARTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPS APPEAR OK AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
05
FXUS63 KDVN 290805 ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT (300 PM CDT) TUE JUN 29 1999
...FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION...
MOISTURE RETURN HAS COMMENCED WITH THETA-E AXIS AND COOL FRONT
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING. MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL FORCING TO OUR SOUTH BUT QPF
FORECASTS INDICATE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING WITH
HIGH OMEGA FIELDS. NOGAPS/CANADIAN AND MAPS MODELS KEEPING PRECIP TO
OUR SOUTH AFTER 00Z WHILE ETA/AVN/18Z RUC KEEP WIDESPREAD PRECIP
OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. NGM SHUNTS IT EAST ALONG THE FRONT. WILL TEND
TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTIONS KEEPING IT SOUTH IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND TO OUR EAST ALONG COOL FRONT. WILL GO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FWC GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDCOVER AND HIGHER MOISTURE.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH
STATIONARY FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH Q FILEDS FROM 850-700 SHOWING SOME FORCING
MOVING THROUGH. ETA/AVN/NGM KEEP US DRY THROUGH DAYTIME HOURS WHILE
NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS GIVE US SOME PRECIP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF LEE TROUGH. WILL INCLUDE A 20 POP FOR KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
ZONES AND DRY FOR COLORADO. WILL UNDERCUT A BIT OVER EASTERN ZONES
DUE TO CLOUDCOVER AND GO NEAR ELSEWHERE.
APPEARS TO BE A BIT DRIER ON THURSDAY WITH NO SO MUCH CLOUDCOVER TO
BURN OFF. 850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 DEGREES C OR SO. WILL GO ABOVE FWC
GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH.
IN THE EXTENDED...MRF IN AGREEMENT TODAY WITH YESTERDAYS RUN OF
DRYING THINGS OUT AND WARMING THINGS UP. TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL WARM EACH DAY...FLIRTING WITH 100 ON SATURDAY.
.GLD...NONE.
THEDE
FXUS63 KTOP 291959 ks
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
845 PM TUE JUN 29 1999
WRKZFP/WRKCWF AVBL ON SDC/RDC
.DISC...PER LATEST RUC/SAT/RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS...SHUD SEE LINGERING
PRECIP END BY MIDNIGHT IN NH AND WSTRN ME...AND SHRTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
ELSEWHERE. WIL WRD AS PRECIP ENDING THEN GRDL CLEARING WTH PTCHY FOG.
BUMPED UP MINS ALONG NH AND SW/MIDCOAST ME. OTHERWISE...NIL OTHR
CHNGES.
MOST OF THE LATE AFTERNOON TSRA ACTIVITY PRODUCED TORRENTIAL
DWNPOURS...FQT CLOUD TO GROUND LTG...AND SFC WND GUSTS BTWN 30 AND 40
MPH. ONLY ONE REPORT OF DAMAGE WAS REPORTED WTH THE TSRA ACTIVITY.
ROCKINGHAM CNTY NH TOWNS OF CHESTER AND AUBURN HAD DOWNED TREES...TIME
OF DAMAGE UNKNOWN.
NOTE:TELCO HAS APPARENTLY FIXED LINE PROBLEM WTH ELLSWORTH NWR WTH
BROADCAST SERVICE RESTORED TO ESTRN ME.
CSTAL WTRS...WNDS BORDERLINE WTH SEAS RUNNING 3 TO 5 FT SO WIL CONTINUE
SCA WTH THE UPDATE.
.GYX...SCA.
ES
FXUS71 KGYX 300047 me
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
920 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
BRUSH BY OF DRIER AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HUMIDITY RETURNS WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FROM SE TO NW. CHECK OF THE 18Z ETA AND 21Z RUC HAS
THIS SHALLOW PUSH OF DRIER AIR BARELY MAKING IT TO OUR SE CORNER IN
LOWER S MD...THEN EXITING BACK TO THE N. SHOULD BE ENUF FOR 12 TO 18
HOURS OF MORE COMFORTABLE WX.
AS WE APPCH THE HOLDY WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL HAZY HOT AND HUMID
FORECAST FOR FRI THRU SUN. MONDAY THE MRF TRIES TO BACK DOOR SOME
COOLER AIR IN...ESP FOR THE NE CORNER. HOWVER TODAYS RUN LOOKS A BIT
FURTHER OFF THE COAST THAN YESTERDAY/S...SO WILL SEE HOW THIS WORKS OUT
IN THE FUTURE.
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AS FAR AS TEMPS AND WINDS...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. MADE MOST CHANGES TO ACCNT FOR CURRNT SHWRS/TSTMS IN
LOWER S MD AND CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REST.
.LWX...NONE.
STRONG
FXUS61 KLWX 291836 md
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1045 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
MAIN FCST QUESTIONS OVERNIGHT INCLUDE PCPN CHANCES FOR WEST ALONG
WITH CLOUDS/TEMPS.
IR LOOP INDICATED MID CLOUDS SPREADING FROM NRN MN THROUGH WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. AREA RADARS ALSO SHOWED -SHRA INTO NERN MN AND WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR WHILE TSRA REMAINED CONFINED TO NW MN. CLOUDS AND PCPN
SUPPORTED BY 300-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 850-500 QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...PER 00Z RUC...IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH 00Z RUC COND
PRES DEF FCST SUGGESTS SCT -SHRA OR SPRINKLES SHOULD MOVE INTO FAR
WEST UPR MI BY 12Z.
INCREASE IN CLOUDS BTWN 03Z-09Z FROM WEST TO EAST WL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING OFF AS FAR IN WEST. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...FCST LOWS OVER CENTRAL
UPR MI LOOK ON TRACK. WL BUMP TEMPS UP A NOTCH OVER EAST PORTION OF
CWA...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM REALIZING
FCST MINS AROUND 45.
.MQT..NONE.
JLB
FXUS63 KDTX 300226 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1046 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
...UPDATE FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...
CURRENTLY STRONG CAA OCCURRING OVER LWR MI AS DEEP LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE NE AWAY FROM MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 TEMPS AT 12Z FALL
FROM 12C AT DTX TO 3C AT APX. WITH STRONG CYCLONICLY CURVED WINDS
FLOW AROUND L0W...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 780 MB AND 70-80 PCT RH
BELOW INVERSION THIS MORNING NO SUPRISE VIS IMAGE LOOPS SHWS CU CLD
STREETS. MODELS DO SUGGEST WINDS WILL BECOME ANTICYCL THIS
AFTERNOON AND CAA WILL END. LOWER LAYERS WILL DRY SOME (925 MB RH
FALLS FROM NEAR 80 PCT TO AROUND 65 PCT) BUT 850 STAYS WITH RH
AROUND 70 PCT. SO... WHILE CU/SC TYPE CLDS WILL DECREASE WITH
TIME... ENOUGH INSTABLITY BELOW INVERSION... EVEN WITH LOW LEVEL
WINDS BECOMING ANTICYC.. TO HAVE SOME CU AROUND. THUS... WILL FCST
PARTLY SUNNY TODAY.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 70... RUC AND ETA SHOW 850 TEMPS BTWN 6-8C OVER
CWA BY 21Z.... SO HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 70. WITH ENOUGH CLDS
AROUND.. MAY NOT EVEN GET TO THAT TEMPERATURE.
BOTTOM LINE FORECAST... PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH NEAR 70.
WDM
FXUS63 KDTX 291450 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1045 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
NO MAJOR FORECAST PROBLEMS WITH THIS UPDATE... JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPS AND CLD WORDING.
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CD FNT APRCHG THE OHIO RIVER AS BRISK NW WNDS
CONT TO PUCH MUCH COLR...DRIER AIR ACRS THE RGN. STRONG Q-VEC DVRGNC
AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPR LVL S/WV RAPIDLY CLRD SKIES
THIS MORG. DESPITE MUCH LWR DWPTS...CU IS FAIRLY ABUNDANT THIS MORG
THE RESULT OF MSTR FM YESTERDAY/S RAFL AND POCKET OF COOL AIR. WL
HAVE A MIX OF CLDS AND SUN THRU THE ZONES.
TEMPS A LTL SLOW TO CLIMB W/ LOW LVL CAA AND WNDS OFF THE FOR THE
NRN SHORE RESIDENTS. HOWEVER...12Z RUC SHOWS SOME WARMER AIR
RETURNING TO WRN SXNS BY LATE AFTN...AND THEY CD GET A CPL DEG BUMP
AS A RESULT. WL KEEP SLIGHTLY WRMR TEMPS IN WRN AND SRN CNTYS.
ERLY MORG IR PICS SHOWED HIGH CLDS RACING TWD THE FA AHD OF NEXT SYS
SO TOYED W/ IDEA OF CHANGING CLD WORDING TNT. HOWEVER..LEADING EDGE
OF CLDS CONTS TO THIN IN DRY AIR OVR MN/WI. 12Z RUC AND PEEK AT THE
NEW ETA INDICATE MOST PLENTIFUL UPR LVL MSTR AND LIFTING MECHANISMS
REMAINING TO THE WEST OF THE YOOP THRU 00Z. WL LEAVE WRDG AS IS AND
LET AFTN FCSTR TAKE A LONGER LOOK AT THE REMAINING 12Z MDL DATA.
.MQT..NONE.
DESROSIERS
FXUS63 KAPX 291434 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1031 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
LATEST VIS STLT SHOWING BANDING LAKE CLOUDS MOVING OVER EAST UPPER AND
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CLOUDS OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING OVER THE STATE.
CURRENT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL CHARTS SHOWING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHING TO THE NORTHEAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. 12Z RUC SHOWS SURFACE LOW TO CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO REMAIN AROUND 6C-7C THIS AFTERNOON WITH
OPEN LAKE TEMPERATURES FOR LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND 16C AND LAKE SUPERIOR
AROUND 14C. DELTA T'S TO REMAIN BETWEEN 8 AND 10 THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE CONTINUE CHANCE OF LAKE CLOUDS. 12Z RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE
LOWEST LAYER...BELOW 850 MB...DRYING SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE
WILL GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY ALONG THE LAKESHORE AREAS AND EAST UPPER
MICHIGAN WITH THE MORE STABLE ONSHORE FLOW AND DRYING. WILL GO WITH
PARTLY SUNNY FOR INLAND COUNTIES.
SEE NO NEED TO MENTION PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. APX MORNING
SOUNDING SHOWED STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION...12Z RUC SHOWED STRONG
QVECTOR DIVERGENCE BETWEEN 850/500MB AND SURFACE RIDGE PROGGED TO SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.
.APX...NONE.
SWR
FXUS63 KMQT 291002 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
900 AM MDT TUE JUN 29 1999
RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
BILLINGS. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONTINUATION OF THE UNUSUALLY STRONG AND FURTHER
SOUTH THAN NORMAL ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED WEAK WAVES FROM WEST OF THE
DATELINE EAST INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ONE WEAK WAVE IS ENTERING CENTRAL
MT WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS ON THE PACIFIC NW COAST. 12Z RUC INDICATES
STRONG SURFACE WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS JET MAX MOVES OVERHEAD IN
COMBINATION WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER DUE TO MIXING.
GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO CHANGES. STROBIN
BIL BB 075/052 075/052 073 63333
LVM .. 072/049 070/... ... 63333
HDN .. 077/051 077/... ... 63333
MLS .. 077/052 077/052 ... 63333
4BQ .. 076/053 075/... ... 63333
BHK .. 075/050 074/... ... 63333
SHR BB 074/049 073/047 075 63333
FXUS65 KGGW 291501 mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
CDFNT ADVANCING ACRS WRN SXNS OF NY ATTM WITH SGFNTLY LWR DWPNTS
ALREADY INTO CYHM VCNTY. POSITIVE BUOYANCY LOOKING FOR WELL IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WITH SOME MID LVL DRYING SPCLY ON 12Z KALY
SOUNDING WITH BETTER SHEAR PROFILE ON KBUF SOUNDING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER DCRD FM VALUES 24 HRS AGO...BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO 2 IN TO
TAKE NOTICE. WL CONT TO HIGHLITE WND POTENTIAL WITH TSTMS THIS AFTN
AND WL HEIGHTEN NOTE OF HZ/HUMIDITY AND WITH FNTL FORCING WL ALSO
BUMP POPS UPWD 20-30 PERCENTAGE PTS. LTLCG FOR MAX TEMP PLANNED.
OR TNGT PD WL DCR POPS ACRS NW DIST PER EXTRAPOLATION OF 09Z RUN OF
RUC BACK EDGE QPF TO 15 HRS. MCKINLEY/JSQ
.ALY...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE.
FXUS61 KOKX 291409 ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
940 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
SFC ANALYSIS/VSBL SAT PIX SHOW SFC COLD FRNT ENTERING THE IAG FRONTIER
ATTM...XTENDG BACK INTO NW PA/NE OH. MEANWHILE...ON WATER VAPOR
LOOP...MID LVL DRY PUNCH IS SEEN WORKING QUICKLY EWD FROM WRN NY/PA.
LATEST RUC/MESO-ETA OUTPUT CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN
BRINGING BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN. TIMING OF FROPA
LOOKS TO BE ARND 16Z-18Z WRN SXNS...THEN CLOSE TO 00Z IN THE
POCONOS/WRN CATSK. IF THIS HOLDS TRUE...IT APPEARS TO THIS FCSTR THAT
THE DRY ADVCTN ALOFT WILL OUTRUN THE FRNT AND BECOME COLLOCATED WITH
OUR JUICY LL ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PD LTR THIS AFTN. THIS
RAISES SOME INTERESTING CONVECTIVE PSBLTYS WITH RGNL VWP/S SHOWING
40-50 KT MID LVL FLOW. BEST CHC FOR ANY SVR WUD BE FROM BGM AND AVP
EWD DURG THE MID TO LATE AFTN PD. MODIFIED 12Z SNDGS GIVE CAPES ON THE
ORDER OF 2500 J/KG IF THE SFC CAN HEAT INTO THE LWR 80S. EVEN THO QUT
A BIT IN THE WAY OF CLDNS IS HERE NOW...THERE ARE ALSO SOME BRKS OPENING
UP IN WRN NY AND MANY PLACES ARE ALREADY IN THE M-U 70S. MAIN LIMITING
FACTORS ARE WK LAPSE RATES (ONLY 5-6 C/KM) AND BETTER S/W FOCUS STAYING
N OF THE RGN. AT THE VERY LEAST...SOME MORE BENEFICIAL +RA CAN BE
ANTICIPATED. CURRENT POP DISTRIBUTION/WORDING LOOKS FINE FOR THIS AFTN.
MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK.
WRK ZNS ARE ON THE STREET. FINAL RELEASE ARND 10 AM.
.BGM...NONE.
JUREWICZ
ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
215 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
AFTN TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL SC AND SANDHILLS APPEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH 18Z WAVE SHOWN ON RUC...WHICH SLOWLY DRIFTS TO COAST
BY 00Z. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SCT TSTMS IN ALL AREAS THROUGH EARLY WED
AM.
THIS AFTN MOISTURE IS FAIRLY DEEP ACROSS CWA...WV SATPIX AND AVN AND
ETA MODELS SHOW DECREASING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING LEADING EDGE
OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH NOW IN THE WESTERLIES OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. BY SUNRISE WED ONLY A LOW LAYER 80 PCT SATURATED
REMAINS...WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH FRI FOR CONTG HI DEW POINTS AND
UNCOMFORTABLE HUMIDITY...WI LOW CLOUDS FORMING AT NIGHT AND SLOWLY
BREAKING UP DURING THE MORNING.
AS THAT TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE COAST WED NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE AREA...THE DRIER AMS HOLDS THROUGH THU. FOLLOWING
ANOTHER TROUGH THAT RUNS N UP THE VA APPALACHIANS THU...HOT RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL STATES AND A DEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH SFC RIDGE
TO THE S OF THE CWA MAINTAINING A SW SFC WIND WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
CWF: APPCHG FRONT AND FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
CRITERIA AT SCA FOR TONIGHT. WILL LOWER WINDS WED AFTN BELOW SCA.
.ILM...SCA FROM SURF CITY NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC.
ILM EE 075/088 075/090 075 42222
FLO EE 075/091 075/092 075 42222
MYR EE 077/088 077/089 077 42222
TM
FXUS62 KMHX 291814 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1005 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN OVER REGION THIS MORNING. PILOT REPORTS
INDICATING CLOUD TOPS AT 35K FT. CURENTLY SEEEING THIS LOW DECK RISE
SLIGHTLY BUT THINK CLOUDS WILL TAKE THEIR TIME BREAKING UP AND
FUTURE CU DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THIS AFTN. SO...WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER CWA.
AS FOR POPS...WILL KEEP AS IS. RUC SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND WITH GOOD INSTABILITIES IN AREA SOUNDINGS. POSSIBLY A
FEW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS AFTER A LOOK AT LATEST OBS.
CWF...WINDS STILL GOING PRETTY WELL AND WILL RETAIN SCA THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGES IF ANY PLANNED BEFORE ISSUANCE
.ILM...SCA FROM SURF CITY NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC.
PJN
FXUS72 KRAH 291349 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
900 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 1999
STORMS OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE HAVE BECOME MORE MULTICELL IN NATURE DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS AS WELL AS CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LATEST
RUC HAS THETA-E RIDGE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY 9Z WITH 30 TO 40 KNOT
8H JET. EXPECT STORMS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CURRENT POPS LOOK GOOD EXCEPT MAY UP
POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. GOOD SHEAR PROFILE ALONG WITH 40-45
KNOT WINDS AT 5H WILL SUPPORT SOME OF THE STORM PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.
.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
FXUS64 KTSA 292055 ok
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1000 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BOUNDARY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO MOVE THRU THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNITE...BUT TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THRU
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. KGSP RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...WHILE CONVECTION E OF MOUNTAINS
HAS DISSIPATED. 21Z RUC AND 18Z ETA SHOW MINIMAL FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA OVERNITE. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS DO NOT SEEM
TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON MCC OVER AR...KILLING IT RATHER ABRUPTLY
AND MOVING THE REMNANTS OVER SRN MS/SWRN AL. INSTEAD...WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING/PROPAGATING ALONG E-W
BOUNDARY THRU N CENTRAL AL INTO GA OVERNITE...BUT NOT MAKING IT THIS
FAR E BEFORE DYING. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH THE IDEA OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS DISSIPATING BY AROUND MIDNITE...WITH
AREAS E OF THE MOUNTAINS REMAINING QUIET. ZONES WILL BE UPDATED TO
REMOVE EVENING WORDING E OF MOUNTAINS BUT ACCOUNT FOR DIMINISHING SHRA
ACROSS MOUNTAINS.
.GSP...NONE.
MOORE
FXUS62 KCHS 300156 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
930 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
SFC TROF GS0-MCN LINE CONTS TO DRFT SLOLY EWD THS MRNG. RUC SHWS
APPRCHG S/W MOVG NEWD AND WKENG. AMS RMNS VRY MOIST WITH LIS -5
TO -6 DURG AFTN. WL RAISE POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT OVR AREA. TEMPS
ON TRCK. TA
.CAE...NONE.
FXUS62 KGSP 291309 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1030 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 1999
UPDATED THE SRN ZONES EARLIER THIS MRNG TO INCR THE CLD COVER AND
TAKE OUT THE POPS...TO JUST GO SCT. LOCAL 88D'S SHOW PCPN BAND
STAYING RIGHT ALONG THE FAR SRN TIER OF CWA...WITH LITTLE OR NO
PROGRESS NWD. THIS BAND OF PCPN IS LIKELY CAUSED BY LLVL WAA...
DEPICTED WELL BY THE RUC LASTING THRU THIS AFTN. BUT ANY NWD
PROGRESS WL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID LVLS AND
TOO MUCH STABILITY. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MAIN WAVE NOW IN THE WRN
HIGH PLAINS NR THE BORDER OF THE DKTS AND WY/MT. THIS WAVE WL MOV
EWRD AND PSBLY SPARK MORE DVLPMENT OF SHWRS ACRS THE NRN HALF OF CWA
LATE TDAY. OTHERWISE WNDS AND TEMP FCST LOOK REASONABLE...WL UPDATE
ARND MIDDAY IF ANYTHING WOULD HAPPEN TO GO WRONG.
.FSD...NONE
FUHS
FXUS63 KABR 291517 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
315 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 1999
ETA AND NGM SIMILIAR IN UPPER LVL AND LOW LVL FEATURES WHILE AVN
SEEMS TO SMOOTH THE UPPER LVL SHRTWVS PROGGED BY THE ETA/NGM. FOLLOWED
AN ETA/NGM SOLN AND LEANED TOWARD THE ETA IN A COUPLE AREAS. NGM
APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING RETURN AND STRENGTH OF SRLY FLOW ALONG WITH
AMPLITUDE OF THERMAL RIDGE PROGGED TO MOVE E ACROSS THE CWFA TDY
INTO TNGT. 00Z RUC HINTS THAT FIRST IMPULSE WL BE FURTHER S THIS
MRNG WITH A SECOND IMPULSE INDICATED BY THE ETA/NGM TO AFFECT THE REST
OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE NGT. CAPES VALUED FM 400 J/KG TO
1000 J/KG WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC BOUNDARY SO TSTMS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. WOULD NOT BE SURPISED TO SEE INITIAL PCPN MALF IN
WRN CWFA AROUND NOON TIL LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS MORE TIME TO FEED INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTN AND EVE. WITH SOME CONCERNS THAT PCPN
AMTS BY NGM/ETA MAY BE OVERDONE FOR THE FIRST PRD...WL KEEP POPS BLO
MOS FOR THE FIRST PRD. PLENTY OF HIGH TO MID LVL CLDS ON THE IR
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND EXPECT CIRRUS TO BE THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPS FM REACHING FULL POTENTIAL. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TDY A NOTCH OR
TWO FM PRVS FCST.
FOR THIRD PRD INTO THE EXTENDED...A LITTLE MORE TRICKY IN DEALING
WITH CHC OF PCPN AS TIMING OF SHRTWVS IN THE MDLS SOMEWHAT
QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER 00Z AVN AND MRF INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSTMS THU SO ADDED A CHC OF TSTMS AND TWEAKED TEMPS THU WITH
REMAINING EXTENDED FCST LEFT UNCHANGED.
.FSD...NONE
BR
sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
945 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED PRE-FRONTAL TROF NEARING PLATEAU
REGION WITH BEST INDICATIONS OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WRN THIRD OF KY
AND NW TN. VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS
OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) WITH DEWPTS IN THE 70S...MORE LIKE
THE GULF COAST. HOPEFULLY THE LAST SOLID AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL RAINS OF
1/2 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...SO EXTENDED THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOOD ADVISORY THRU NOON.
THIS MORNING'S ACTIVITY WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON
...BUT WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS EAST OF COLD FRONT.
06Z RUC MODEL DEPICTED AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SATELLITE PICS DO NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE AT ALL.
OTHERWISE...WILL MONITOR SATELLITE PICS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FOR
IMPROVING SKIES BEHIND FRONT.
TG
FXUS64 KOHX 291210 tn
SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1005 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 1999
FRONTAL CONVECTION LIES WELL TO THE NORTH NEAR THE RED RIVER AND
LATEST RUC NOR PREVIOUS MODELS SHOWING THIS FEATURE TO MAKE MUCH OF
SOUTHWARD PUSH...EXCEPT FOR SOME PSBL TS OUTFLOWS WHICH COULD AFFECT
NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION TO COME THIS FAR
SOUTH SO PLAN ON REMOVING AFTERNOON POPS. IN ADDITION ATMOSPHERE IS
MODERATELY CAPPED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FROM UPPER RDG SO EVEN SEA
BREEZE WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY GENERATING ANY SHOWERS. WILL HAVE TO
ADDRESS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CWA AND
PERHAPS WILL USE WORDING OF BECOMING PC AND KNOCK DOWN FORECAST MAX
TEMPS A CAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
.SAT...NONE.
01/13
FXUS64 KMAF 291455 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1015 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
12Z ANALYSIS HAD SFC FNT BEARING DOWN ON BNA TO CNTRL OH. GOOD
PRESSURE RISES IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND
60S BEHIND THE FNT. 09Z RUC HAD FNT SLOWLY CROSSING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY 21Z. DON'T THINK IT WL REACH LEE SIDE OF MOUNTAINS
UNTIL AFT 00Z. RADAR MOSAIC HAS SEGMENTS OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG FRONT
AND MOVING INTO RLX FA AND CNTRL TN WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROF. AREA OF
PCPN COMING OUT OF CNTRL TN AND LEADING AREA OF SHRA WL MAINLY PASS
SOUTH OF CWA. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING HAD CAPES 2500-4000 J/KG AND LIS
-5 TO -8. PWINS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS PAST FEW DAYS SO WL ADD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. SINCE FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL TNGT
EXPECT ONLY SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTN SO NO BIG CHANGES IN POPS. BUT
WILL WATCH FOR INCREASING COVERAGE ON LINE COMING THRU WV. TEMPS
RUNNING ABOUT THE SAME AS SAME TIME YESTERDAY. NO ADJUSTMENTS TO
REST OF FCST.
.RNK...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
AMS
FXUS61 KAKQ 291347 va
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
300 AM EST WED JUN 30 1999
OZFFWA AVBL...
LARGE MODELS DIFFERENCES WITH UPCOMING PCPN EVENT. ETA/AVN FAVORED
OVR NGM GIVEN UL JET PLACEMENT/LEAD SWV CRNTLY SEEN ON RUC AND
WV IMAGERY DROPPING SE THROUGH MT AND SUBSEQUENT CYCLOGENESIS ACRS
UPR MS VLY/WRN GRTLKS BEYOND F30. STILL DIFFERENCES BTWN ETA/AVN
LEADING TO LESS CERTAINITY WITH TIMING OTHER THAN CAT WRN HALF FA PD2
AND CAT ERN HALF PD3. SIG LWLVL MFLUX F30-42 INTO LWR GRTLKS.
THERMODYNAMICS LACKING AND TIMING LESS SUPPORTIVE OF TSRA AND WL
UNDERPLAY MENTION PD2. CAPES TO NR 1500 THU AFTN E. WDSPRD RAFL
AMOUNTS SIG WITH 1-2 INCH RANGE PSBL. DURATION OF EVENT SHOULD
PRECLUDE FLDG PROBLEMS. UNDERCUT MOS A FEW DY1 WITH MID/UL CLDS AND
KEPT DIURNAL SPREADS TIGHT NR 10-15F PD2-3 WITH CLDS/PCPN WHICH WAS
NEAR MOS.
SBN EW 077/063 077/066 084 15298
FWA EW 078/064 076/066 084 15179
AOH EW 078/064 078/066 084 15-79
.IWX...NONE
MURPHY
FXUS73 KIND 291952 in
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
145 AM CDT WED JUN 30 1999
ENERGETIC FLOW PATTERN ESTABLISHED OVER CONUS. 90KT UPPER LVL JET
PUNCHING ACROSS PAC NW. LARGE SCALE OVERVIEW SHOWS ETA/AVN IN BEST
AGREEMENT. LIKE AVN OVERALL SINCE IT MOVES SIGNIFICANT SFC WAVE MORE
EAST ACROSS MIDWEST NEXT 30HRS...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVG
FRONT NORTH. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE MODELS DOING WELL ON A SMALLER
SCALE. SINCE MIDNIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SE MISSOURI INTO FAR WRN KENTUCKY. LAPS/RUC DATA
SHOWS A VORT MAX AT 700MB OVER SE MO WITH CONVECTION FIRING IN 700MB
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. ALSO...GOOD 850/700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION APPEARS
TO BE ONGOING. MEANWHILE...PROFILERS AT 700/300MB SHOW TROF AXIS TO
OUR WEST OVER MISSOURI. ALL THIS POINTS TO RAISING POPS SLIGHTLY IN
WRN SECTIONS OF FA TODAY. REST OF THE CURRENT BREAK UP OF ZONES
LOOKS GOOD. SEVERAL MORE WAVES LIKELY TO AFFECT THE FA THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH MODEL DIFFICULTIES...WILL NOT TIME CONVECTION
AND WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY HIGH AS IN CURRENT ZONES. THUS WILL TAKE
TIMING OUT FOR MORNING THURSDAY. AVN ALSO SHOWS ONE MORE S/WV MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING (AND THE UPPER RIDGE HAS YET TO BUILD
NORTH)...THUS WILL ADD TSRA TO ZONES THROUGH EARLY FRI. RIDGE STILL
FCST TO BUILD IN THIS WEEKEND...THUS CHANCE FOR CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH HOT AND HUMID THE RULE. FAVOR COOLER
FAN NUMBERS DUE TO CHCS FOR CONVECTION/CLOUDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS WELL.
.PAH...NONE.
CN
FXUS63 KJKL 300204 ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
210 AM EDT WED JUN 30 1999
MUCH APPRECIATED DRIER AIR MASS HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE CNTRL NY AND
NE PA BUT IT WILL BE SHORTLIVED. NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A THREAT OF
SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY SPCLY ACRS WRN ZONES. PER USUAL SOME DIFFS IN THE
MDLS WITH THIS NEXT WAVE. AVN IS THE STRONGEST AND QUICKEST OF THE 3
MDLS W/RESPECT TO THE S/WV OVER THE ERN GTLAKES BY F48 WHILE THE NGM IS
WEAKEST..ETA THE MIDDLE MAN. AVN'S FASTER MVMNT MAY ON TRACK GIVEN THE
FAST ZONAL FLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACRS THE RGN TDA WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND
PLEASANT RH'S. SAT PIX SHOW MID TO HIGH LVL CLD ASSCD WITH THE OLD
TROPICAL PLUME ACRS FAR SE ZONES WHILE ANOTHER BATCH IS MOVG ENE ACRS
LOWER MI AND INDIANA. XPCT SOME OF THE GTLAKES CLD WILL DSPT AS IT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE RGN BUT RUC DOES INDICATE THE LEADING EDGE INTO WRN NYS
BY 12Z AND IMPLES IT WILL WORK ACRS THE RGN TDA..BUT BULK OF IT SHUD
REMAIN TO OUR NW. CLDS ACRS SE ZONES SHUD GRADUALLY PULL OUT BUT MAY BE
ARND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY (AND MAY ALSO CREEP INTO PORTIONS OF THE SRN
SUSQUEHANNA RGN BEFORE PULLING OUT) SO MAY HEDGE A BIT AND GO WITH
PARTLY VS. MOSTLY SUNNY HERE. WILL LIKELY STICK WITH THE MOSTLY SUNNY
FCST ELSEWHERE AS THE CI (FOR THE MOST PART) SHUD BE THIN BUT I'LL
DEFER TO PARTLY SUNNY IF SAT PIX TRENDS CONTINUE. WILL HOLD ZONES TIL
400 AM TO MONITOR.
WE SHUD SEE A GNRL THICKENING OF THE CLOUDS TONIGHT. ON THU BEST CHCS
FOR CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE OVER WRN ZONES WHERE MDLS SHOW BEST LOW LVL
MSTR CONVERGENCE AND STRONGEST DYNAMICS WILL BE ACRS THIS AREA. FAN/FWC
POPS HAVE INCREASED FOR THU AS COMPARED TO THE PREV RUN. WILL GO WITH
THIS TREND AND FCST LIKELY POPS ACRS WRN AND PSBLY CNTRL ZONES ON THU
WITH LOWEST (CHC) POPS ACRS FAR SE SXNS. SOME TIMING DIFFS DEPENDING ON
YOUR MDL OF PREFERENCE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE "MAINLY AFTN" FOR
WRN SXNS. GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE BALLPARK.
NOT PLANNING ANY CHGS TO XTNDD. WILL KEEP IN A CHC FOR PCPN ON FRI AND
SAT WITH THE 4TH DRY.
ANY THOUGHTS PLEASE CALL. LATER..
.BGM...NONE.
BRADY
FXUS61 KALY 300112 ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
215 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
AFTN TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL SC AND SANDHILLS APPEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH 18Z WAVE SHOWN ON RUC...WHICH SLOWLY DRIFTS TO COAST
BY 00Z. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SCT TSTMS IN ALL AREAS THROUGH EARLY WED
AM.
THIS AFTN MOISTURE IS FAIRLY DEEP ACROSS CWA...WV SATPIX AND AVN AND
ETA MODELS SHOW DECREASING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING LEADING EDGE
OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH NOW IN THE WESTERLIES OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. BY SUNRISE WED ONLY A LOW LAYER 80 PCT SATURATED
REMAINS...WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH FRI FOR CONTG HI DEW POINTS AND
UNCOMFORTABLE HUMIDITY...WI LOW CLOUDS FORMING AT NIGHT AND SLOWLY
BREAKING UP DURING THE MORNING.
AS THAT TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE COAST WED NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE AREA...THE DRIER AMS HOLDS THROUGH THU. FOLLOWING
ANOTHER TROUGH THAT RUNS N UP THE VA APPALACHIANS THU...HOT RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL STATES AND A DEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH SFC RIDGE
TO THE S OF THE CWA MAINTAINING A SW SFC WIND WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
CWF: APPCHG FRONT AND FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
CRITERIA AT SCA FOR TONIGHT. WILL LOWER WINDS WED AFTN BELOW SCA.
.ILM...SCA FROM SURF CITY NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC.
ILM EE 075/088 075/090 075 42222
FLO EE 075/091 075/092 075 42222
MYR EE 077/088 077/089 077 42222
TM
FXUS62 KMHX 291814 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
315 AM EDT WED JUN 30 1999
.UPDATE...LOOKING HARDER AT CONVECTIVE ANALYSIS...WITH ETA PROGS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITIES THIS AFT...PLUS CONVECTION CURRENTLY
FORMING NR EXTREME S CWA. WILL SPLIT CWA IN FCST WITH PIEDMONT 30
POP...CAE/AGS 40...AND 50 FOR THE SOUTH TODAY.
SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS W NC/N SC/N GA AND FURTHER W. STG VORT
EVIDENT ON VAPOR IN SE AR/N MS MOVG E...AIDING CONVECTION ALG BOUNDARY
IN N MS/N AL. LATEST MODELS INITIALIZED VORT ENERGY ALONG THE CAROLINAS
COAST...AND INTO S GA WHERE CONVECTION STILL LINGERS. MDLS KEEP VORT
ENERGY NR THE CST TODAY...WITH MAIN MAX SLOWLY UP THE NC/VA CST TON/THU.
PCPN PROGS HIGHER PCPN AMTS S HALF OF STATE. ETA APPEARS TO BE HANDLING
THE N MS VORT BETTER...AND HAS IT MOVG SLOWLY ENE TO NR CHA AND
WEAKENING BY 00Z...THOUGH VAPOR TRENDS SUGGEST MORE RAPID MVMT. 03Z RUC
HAD A VORT IN W NC MOVG TO NR CLT BY 15Z. DONT KNOW HOW ACCURATE THIS
IS...NOTHING APPARENT ON VAPOR THERE CURRENTLY. AT THE SFC...ALL MODELS
KEEP SFC BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY OVR N SC TOD...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE IT
NORTH OR DISSIPATE IT THU. MODELS ALSO PROG DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION AT MID/UPPER LEVELS TODAY...AND GIVE GOOD INSTABILITY VALUES.
GIVEN THIS ALG WITH VORT ALG THE COAST...SFC BOUNDARY NORTH...AND OTHER
APPRCHG VORT...THINK CHC POPS APPROPRIATE TODAY AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE HIGHER FWC POP. WHAT TSRA THAT FORMS...COULD BE STRONG. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS PERHAPS CUTTING BACK ON INSOLATION SOME.
USING MODEL CONSENSUS...CLIMO...AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REMAIN...THINK CHC POPS ALSO APPROPRIATE THU.
IN THE EXTENDED...MRF BUILDS A LARGE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST FRI THRU MON...WITH TROUGH OVER NEW ENG/E CAN. FMR PROJ WARMING
TREND WELL INTO THE MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH MAKES SINCE GIVEN
CLIMO FOR CAE IS 91. DIURNAL HEATING PLUS PREMISE FOR A BOUNDARY COMING
DOWN SUN...THINK WDLY SCT/SCT POPS SOUND OK AT THIS POINT.
CAE BB 90/72/91 423
AGS BB 91/71/91 423
.CAE...NONE.
MILLER
FXUS62 KCAE 300658 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
250 AM EDT WED JUN 30 1999
SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS W NC/N SC/N GA AND FURTHER W. STG VORT
EVIDENT ON VAPOR IN SE AR/N MS MOVG E...AIDING CONVECTION ALG BOUNDARY
IN N MS/N AL. LATEST MODELS INITIALIZED VORT ENERGY ALONG THE CAROLINAS
COAST...AND INTO S GA WHERE CONVECTION STILL LINGERS. MDLS KEEP VORT
ENERGY NR THE CST TODAY...WITH MAIN MAX SLOWLY UP THE NC/VA CST TON/THU.
PCPN PROGS HIGHER PCPN AMTS S HALF OF STATE. ETA APPEARS TO BE HANDLING
THE N MS VORT BETTER...AND HAS IT MOVG SLOWLY ENE TO NR CHA AND
WEAKENING BY 00Z...THOUGH VAPOR TRENDS SUGGEST MORE RAPID MVMT. 03Z RUC
HAD A VORT IN W NC MOVG TO NR CLT BY 15Z. DONT KNOW HOW ACCURATE THIS
IS...NOTHING APPARENT ON VAPOR THERE CURRENTLY. AT THE SFC...ALL MODELS
KEEP SFC BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY OVR N SC TOD...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE IT
NORTH OR DISSIPATE IT THU. MODELS ALSO PROG DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION AT MID/UPPER LEVELS TODAY...AND GIVE GOOD INSTABILITY VALUES.
GIVEN THIS ALG WITH VORT ALG THE COAST...SFC BOUNDARY NORTH...AND OTHER
APPRCHG VORT...THINK CHC POPS APPROPRIATE TODAY AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE HIGHER FWC POP. WHAT TSRA THAT FORMS...COULD BE STRONG. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS PERHAPS CUTTING BACK ON INSOLATION SOME.
USING MODEL CONSENSUS...CLIMO...AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
REMAIN...THINK CHC POPS ALSO APPROPRIATE THU.
IN THE EXTENDED...MRF BUILDS A LARGE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST FRI THRU MON...WITH TROUGH OVER NEW ENG/E CAN. FMR PROJ WARMING
TREND WELL INTO THE MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH MAKES SINCE GIVEN
CLIMO FOR CAE IS 91. DIURNAL HEATING PLUS PREMISE FOR A BOUNDARY COMING
DOWN SUN...THINK WDLY SCT/SCT POPS SOUND OK AT THIS POINT.
CAE BB 90/72/91 323
AGS BB 91/71/91 323
.CAE...NONE.
MILLER
FXUS62 KGSP 300631 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
900 AM PDT WED JUN 30 1999
NO UPDATES TO ZONES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. LOCAL TEMPERATURE SCHEMES
USING ARB SOUNDING DATA AND CURRENT WINDS CONFIRM MAX TEMP FORECASTS
OF PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AS YESTERDAY...OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS THAT IS
OCCURRING CURRENTLY IN METAR AND RAWS DATA IN NORTHERN ZONES. THIS
ALSO FORECAST TO MATERIALIZE IN LOWER VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...SO
AFTERNOON SOUTHERLIES FORECAST IN ZFP LIKELY NOT TO BE SIGNIFICANT
ANOUGH TO MATTER.
12Z ETA AND 0ZZ AVN BOTH CONFIRM 40M+ 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS THURSDAY.
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...ALLOWING SOME
REFORMATION OF THE COASTAL MARINE LAYER AND LOWERING INLAND PRESSURES
ENOUGH THURDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW SOME COOLING. THIS SHOULD BRING
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS DOWN TO 100 OR BELOW...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. MAJOR CHANGE WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING MINS AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS. SJC
.STO...NONE.
FXUS66 KHNX 301556 ca
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1010 AM EDT WED JUN 30 1999
VORT MAX N AL FORECAST BY RUC TO MOVE TO NE GA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
RUC ALSO SHOWS HIGHEST THETA-E AIR REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
GA. CONVECTION FIRING UP IN AL IN THE CLEAR AIR SOUTH OF THE CLOUD
MASS. MORNING CAPES FROM BMX AND FFC BOTH IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG.
MAY BE DEALING WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER RUC ALSO SHOWS 50H TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOUT 2 DEG
BY MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN ALL THIS FEEL IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO RAISE
POPS TO GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY NORTH AND CENTRAL ZONES.
TEMPERATURES A CRAP SHOOT AS USUAL BASED ON CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER
THEY LOOK IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. WESTERLY COMPONENT
LOOKS TOO STRONG FOR MUCH OF A SEABREEZE ALONG THE COAST TODAY.
.ATL...NONE
FXUS72 KFFC 300702 ga
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1030 AM EDT WED JUN 30 1999
CURRENT VIS STLT SHOWING AREA OF MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO MIDDLE LEVEL
MOISTURE AND VORT CENTER MOVING OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOUD COVER.
12Z RUC SHOWING THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DRYING IN MIDDLE LEVELS FROM 80 PERCENT THIS MORNING TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND SEEMS TO BE MATCHING UP WELL WITH CURRENT
VIS STLT LOOP SHOWING A SCT CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY... STLT AND RUC MOISTURE
TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON IS FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALL
DAY... THEREFORE WILL EMPHASIZE THE SUN AND GO WITH PARTLY SUNNY MOST
ZONES.
TEMPERATURES LOOKING IN LINE WITH CURRENT LAMP DATA...WILL NOT ADJUST
AT THIS TIME.
.APX...NONE.
SWR
FXUS63 KAPX 301117 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1030 AM CDT WED JUN 30 1999
MAIN QUESTION FOR REMAINDER OF FIRST PERIOD IS CLOUD COVER AND
LINGERING PRECIP THREAT. SFC TROUGH LAGGING BEHIND 00Z GUIDANCE A
BIT. PRES RISES BEHIND FRONT MINIMAL DUE TO UPSTREAM SYSTEM SO EXPC
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DMSH AS IT WORKS SLOWLY EWD ACRS MN ZONE
FORECAST AREA. MID LVL TROUGH MAKING A BIT MORE PROGRESS EWD PER WV
IMAGERY AND MORE WESTERLY WINDS AT WOOD LAKE WIND PROFILER. ASSOCD
-SHRA HAVE ABT EXITED MN INTO WI ZFA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH AS EVIDENT FM VSBL IMAGERY...BUT SOME DECREASE
IN FAR WEST. MODIFIED 12Z MPX SOUNDING AND INTERACTIVE SKEW T
APPLIED TO RUC FOR MSP AREA INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY POTENTIAL
THRU MID AFTN DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WL CUT BACK ON
HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN WI AND ERN MN ZFA DUE TO CU BUT SHOULD STILL
NEAR/BREAK 70 MANY AREAS. NEXT SYSTEM ASSOCD WITH LEFT EXIT REGION
OF 120 KT JET PUSHING THRU NRN ROCKIES/PLATEAU SPREADING -SHRA
CLOUDS ACRS SRN SD/NRN NE LKLY TO AFFECT PARTS OF SRN ZFA TNGT.
.MSP...NONE
KAVINSKY
FXUS63 KDLH 300830 mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
845 AM MDT WED JUN 30 1999
MORNING RADAR IMAGES STILL SHOW SOME AREAS OF SHOWERS UPSTREAM IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST AREAS WITH RUC INDICATING STEEPER LAPSE
RATES APPROACHING FORECAST AREA AROUND 00Z. RUC ALSO DEEPENS
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST TODAY THUS NOT CONCERNED ABOUT LACK OF
PRECIP THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG JET NOSING INTO
REGION WITH ZONAL FLOW EXTENDING BACK ACROSS CENTRAL PACIFIC. WITH
DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO MONTANA ON THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL EXPECT
SHOWER COVERAGE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
LOT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND CAPPED SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY. WILL
WAIT FOR NEW MODEL RUN TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS THIS AFTERNOON. BORSUM.
BIL EB 075/052 077/052 070 57433
LVM .. 073/051 076/... ... 57433
HDN .. 077/051 079/... ... 57433
MLS .. 078/055 081/056 ... 57332
4BQ .. 078/055 079/... ... 57332
BHK .. 074/052 078/... ... 57332
SHR EB 074/048 078/048 073 57432
BUR ** 060/040 064/042 057 57333
FXUS65 KMSO 300849 mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1009 AM EDT WED JUN 30 1999
.DISC...CURRENT FCST APPRS RIGHT ON THE MONEY. MID/HI CLOUDS OVER
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK MOVING FASTER TOWARD N NEW YORK THAN E... BUT IN
EITHER CASE NOT A FACTOR TIL TNGT. TEMPS ARE WELL IN LINE WITH
MODELS... SO NO CHANGES HERE. RUC VV WUD HINT AT FAIRLY GD CLD COVER
FOR AFTN BUT 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BUF AND ALY ARE VERY DRY... SO SHUD
NOT BE A MAJOR FACTOR. WL THEREFORE KEEP CUR CLD FCST AS WELL... AND
SO NO CHGS. WRKZFP SHORTLY.
.ALY...NONE.
ELH
FXUS61 KBGM 301323 ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
920 AM EDT WED JUN 30 1999
CURRENT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHGS XPCTD.
SAT PIX SHOW MOST OF THE CWA IN BETWEEN CLD BANDS THIS MRNG. ONE OF
THESE BANDS ASSOCD WITH THE TROP MOIST PLUME THAT/S BEEN SHOVED TO OUR
SE IS BRUSHING THE POCONOS/SRN CATSK ATTM. MESO-ETA/RUC RH PROFILES
INDICATE THAT SOME MID LVL DEBRIS MAY CONT TO AFFECT THIS AREA DURG THE
AFTN...SO WILL KEEP P/SNY FCST. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY SUNNY CONDS WILL
PREVAIL WITH VERY DRY COLUMN IN PLACE. MID/HI LVL CLDS STREAMING NE
FROM LAST NGT/S SRN PLAINS MCS SHUD STAY W OF THE FA THIS AFTN.
MAX TEMPS LOOK GOOD BASED ON 12Z SNDGS.
WRK ZNS OUT. FINAL PACKAGE COMING SHORTLY.
.BGM...NONE.
JUREWICZ
FXUS61 KOKX 300731 ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1040 AM EDT WED JUN 30 1999
VORT AXIS IN DIFFLUENT ZONE ALONG COAST AND GETTING SCT SHWRS/TSTMS
MOVING IN OFF WATER. IR IMAGERY INDICATED COOLING TOPS ALONG COAST
AROUND 12Z BUT RECENT TREND HAS TOPS WARMING HERE WITH COOLING NOW
DOWN S OFF JAX. THIS INDICATES STONGER MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE CUT
OFF TO S AND THUS WILL CONT TO HAVE SCT ACTIVITY THRU AFTN RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN LIKE NEAR SAV YESTERDAY. LATEST RUC AND
3Z MESO-ETA INDICATE VORT AXIS SHIFTING N OVER CWA THIS AFTN SO DO
EXPECT SOME AREAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION BUT STILL MAINLY SCT. WILL
UP POPS ALONG COAST TO LIKELY BUT KEEP 50 % ELSEWHERE.
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN ALONG COAST AND WILL LOWER
HIGHS TO 80-85 THIS AFTN. INLAND SECTIONS WILL SEE MORE SCT ACTVTY
AND PSBLY A FEW BINOVC...SO MID 80S OK THERE.
CWF: SCA CONDITIONS CONT OVER SRN SECTIONS...CONT FCST AS IS.
.MHX...SCA COASTAL WATERS S OF HAT.
JBM
FXUS72 KRAH 301352 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1007 AM EDT WED JUN 30 1999
AFTER A WORKOUT WITH THE DART BOARD...HV DECIDED TO REMOVE LIKELY
POPS AND MENTION OF HVY RAIN FM CHS AREA FOR THIS AFT. SYNOPTIC
MODELS HV NOT BEEN MUCH HELP LATELY. LOOKS AS THO THE PCPN ALG THE
CST THIS AM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVG OFFSHORE...UNLIKE YESTERDAY.
AREAS FURTHER UP THE CST WL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE RAIN TDA. AM
PLANNING M/CLDY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ENTIRE FA THIS AFT AS LTST
SATLT STILL SHOWING LOTS OF LOW CLDS UPSTREAM. WL GO WITH 40-50 POPS
FOR ENTIRE AREA AND AM A BIT CONCENED ABT S/WV OVER NRN AL HEADED
THIS WAY LATER IN THE DAY. 12Z CHS SOUNDING A BUST ONLY SHOWING
LIMITED DATA UP TO ABT H7. MHX AND JAX SOUNDINGS PROVIDING A DECENT
BENCHMARK WITH COPIOUS AMTS OF LLVL MOISTURE. IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO
GET ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFT FM TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
HOPEFULLY THAT WONT HAPPEN FM NBC-SAV WHERE FLOOD WATERS ARE STILL
RECEDING.
CWF...PLAN TO CONTINUE SCA IN THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS AND KEEP
SCEC ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT HARBOR. 12Z RUC KEEPS 20 KT IN THE BLYR
THIS AFTN AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 20-25 AT 2-4 KFT ON REGIONAL VWPS.
WILL CONTINUE ONGOING FCST FOR S CAROLINA WATERS WITH SW 15 TO 20 KT.
.CHS...
SC...NONE.
GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND 20 NM TO 50 NM.
TJR/RVT
FXUS62 KCAE 301400 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
949 AM EDT WED JUN 30 1999
WK FNTL BNDRY ALG A RDU-GSP LINE THS MRNG WITH ABNDT LO LVL MSTR
OVR MUCH OF STA. S/W ALG CST CONTS TO MOV EWD AND OFFSHORE. NXT
S/W MOVG ACRS NRN AL WL MOV INTO AREA LT AFTN. WTH WK WND FIELDS
IN LO LVLS DENSE CLD CVR OVR AREA WL BE SLO TO ERODE. RUC SHWS
8H WNDS TO INCR AND BCM DWNSLP DURG AFTN. WTH 8H +17 TO +18 AIR
TO MOV INTO AREA ANY BRKS SHUD PUSH TEMPS TO 85-90. WL KEEP POPS
TO CHC CAT WTH APPRCHG S/W...AFTN HEATG AND ABNDT LO LVL MSTR.
TA
.CAE...NONE.
FXUS62 KGSP 301358 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
957 AM EDT WED JUN 30 1999
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS QSTNRY FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG AHN-CLT LINE
WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES ALONG IT. PROBABLY WILL SEE THIS FEATURE
MOVE LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...IF NOT A BIT FURTHER BACK NORTHWARD.
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST ACRS TN/AL ATTM...PROGGED TO SHEAR
THRU AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS TO BE HANDLED BEST BY LATEST RUC DATA
WITH THE CENTER MOVING INTO NE GA BY LATE AFTERNOON. LLVL DWPTS
ABOUT A CATEGORY LOWER THAN YSTRDY...LEADING TO FCST SFC BASED
(MAX) CAPES AROUND 1800 J/KG ALONG & SOUTH OF SFC BNDRY. MAY SEE
UPPER WAVE APPROCHING FROM WEST FOCUS CONVECTION AS WELL. PLAN
TO KEEP CHC POPS ALL AREAS WITH LITTLE IF ANY SKY/TEMP CHANGES.
.GSP...NONE.
CSH
FXUS62 KCHS 300838 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1040 AM CDT WED JUN 30 1999
ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER WAVE. FAST MOVING UPPER LVL SYSTEM ALONG WITH
AN INCREASE IN LOW LVL CONVERGENCE PER STLT AND 12Z RUC BROUGHT A
NEED TO BRING CHC OF SHOWERS SOONER FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA.
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT SETTING UP MSTLY S OF
I-90. CLDS PRETTY THICK AND MADE CHGS TO CLD CVR AS WELL AS LOWERED
SOME TEMPS. 15Z ZONE UPDATE MAY STILL BE A LITTLE TOO WM EVEN AFT
CHGS BUT WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE 60S STILL WANTED TO LEAVE
ENOUGH WIGGLE ROOM.
.FSD...NONE
BR
FXUS63 KABR 301520 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1020 AM CDT WED JUNE 30 1999
MODELS HAVING TROUBLE TRULY IDENTIFYING EVERY PVA AND SHORTWAVE IN
THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAS OBVIOUS YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING...
TOO. LATEST STLT IMAGERY INDICATED JET STREAK CRUISING THROUGH NE
SD AND AN APPROACHING LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION TOWARDS EXTREME SW SD.
IT APPEARS THAT THESE FEATURES WERE PRODUCING INCREASED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION. AT 13Z...A SFC TROF WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE SD/MN
BORDER. ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPERIENCING SOME DECENT MID LEVEL LIFT
ACROSS OUR CWA...ANTICYCLONIC SFC FLOW AND DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP
POPS DOWN THIS AFTN. LATEST RUC INDICATED SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING
ACROSS C/NC SD WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE APPROACHING LEFT FRONT
EXIT REGION LATER THIS AFTN AND RETURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW. DECIDED
TO ADD A 20 POP FOR C/NC SD AND PLACED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR THE
EASTERN ZONES. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL BE POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF CWA.
MIGHT ALSO HAVE TO TWEAK THE TEMPS A TAD LOWER.
.ABR...NONE.
GUERRERO
FXUS63 KFSD 300832 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
930 AM EDT WED JUN 30 1999
VIS LOOP SHOWING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL
VERMONT THIS MORNING WITH SOME CIRRUS BEING EJECTED FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO OUR REGION AS WELL. 09 UTC RUC AND 00 UTC ETA ARE
FORECASTING SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE REGION TODAY AS WELL AS
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THIS SHOULD HAVE A STABILIZING
EFFECT ON THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPRESS MUCH OF THE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. ALSO DON'T THINK THAT THE CIRRUS WILL BE THICK ENOUGH
TO KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FORECAST VALUES. WILL
TWEAK ZONE WORDING FOR SKY CONDITIONS BUT CURRENT PACKAGE IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.
ST. JEAN
.BTV...NONE.
FXUS61 KBTV 300635 vt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
942 AM EDT WED JUN 30 1999
13Z SFC OBS INDICATE A WK LOW NR WAL AND ANOTHER WAVE IN FAR SW NC.
BOTH THE MESOETA AND RUC PICKED UP ON THIS HOWEVER THE NC LOW SHLD
CAUSE THE FRNT TO LIFT BACK TO THE W AS THE WAL LOW PUSHES NE. AM
A LITTLE LEARLY THOUGH THAT THE FRNT WILL REACH SBY BY 15Z. WL
HAVE TO WATCH CLOSLY. OTHERWISE...WV SHOWS A WK VORT IN CNTRL VA
WHILE VIS SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLDS ACRS REGION. KAKQ 88-D
INDICATES SCT SH/SP ACRS MUCH OF CWA. BELIEVE THAT THE SH IN THE W WL
COME TO AN END THIS AFT AS THE S/W LIFTS NE. THUS WL PLACE A
30 POP IN W THRU MD AFT. HOWEVER THE SCT SH AND TSTMS SHLD CONT THRU
THE AFT IN THE E AS THE SRN VORT EVER SO SLOWLY MOVS N ALNG THE NC
COAST.
AS FOR TEMPS...REALLY DO NOT SEE TO MANY BREAKS IN THE CLDS IN ERN
NC SO TAPERED TEMPS BACK A BIT IN SOME OF THE ERN ZNS.
CWF...NO SIG CHANGES ATTM.
.AKQ...NONE.
SHADE
FXUS61 KAKQ 301342 va
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
225 AM MDT WED JUN 30 1999
SCT -SHRA ACRS N CEN AT 07Z ASSCD WITH VORT MAX NR LVM IN FAST WNW
FLOW. NEXT UPSTRM VORT MAX OVR E WASH. MAIN FCST PROB WILL BE TIMING
OF MINOR UPSTRM S/W OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS. 06Z RUC INITIALIZED VORT
POSITIONS WELL...THOUGH ALL MDLS HAVE DIFFERENCES IN SPEED/POSTN AND
BEARING OF FTRS. THUS USED LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION FOR SHORT TERM TAKING
FIRST VORT TO JUST N OR GCC AT 10Z WITH 2ND WAVE OVR WA TRAILING BHND
ON SIMILAR PATH BY ABT 6 HRS...E OF FA ARND 15Z. THUS WILL MTN ISOLD
-SHRA TIL MID MRNG ACRS N CEN AND NE ZNS. THIS AFTN...BEST
INSTABILITY ACRS YNP WITH -2 TO -3 LI/S AND CAPES ARND 300 J/KG PER
ETA. ETA FCST SNDGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY/MSTR MAINLY N OF A COD TO
CPR LINE BUT NVA AND DOWNSLOPE WNDS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION AND WILL
ONLY GO ISOLD ACRS THESE AREAS. STRONGER S/W BRUSHES NORTH TGT...VERY
SIMILAR TO PATH AND STRENGTH OF VORT OVR S MT THIS MRNG AND EXPECT
NRLY THE SAME RESULT WITH SCT -SHRA. CRNT FCST ON TRACK FOR THUR WITH
DRYING BHND TGTS S/W. UPR FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY AND GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AS UPR LOW OVR GULF OF AK MOVES SE INTO S BC WITH 110 KT JET
PUNCHING INTO NW U.S. 7H TMPS OVR FA WARM BY ABT 3 DEG C ON THUR.
WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE TDY AS FAR AS WNDS AND TEMPS. ON
THUR...CPR/LND AND SOME OTHERS THAT HAVE ESCAPED NW WNDS WILL GET INTO
THE ACT AS 7H FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. QUICK LOOK AT LATEST MRF
RUN SHOWS FIRST UPR LOW MOVG INTO BC THUR CONT NORTH ACRS CAN BRDR
WITH UPSTRM LOW DIGGING INTO NW U.S. AND BACKING FLOW OVR FA SAT.
WEAK SFC COLD FRONT MOVES ACRS N AND E ERLY FRI THEN STRONGER FRONT
MOVES ACRS STATE SUN AS UPR LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH.
.RIW...NONE.
MEUNIER
FXUS65 KRIW 292057 wy
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
233 PM EDT WED JUN 30 1999
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE RUC SHOWED
THAT THE SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE MORE
NORTHEAST AND MAY AFFECT THE GEORGIA PORTION OF THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. IT MAY ALSO AFFECT THE EXTREME NORTHERN FLORIDA PORTION OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THURSDAY THE MODELS KEEP THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE WET SO A 40 OR 50
POP SEEMS A GOOD BET ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR AND A RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD DROP THE POPS TO A LOW CHANCE FRIDAY. FWC
TEMPERATURES SEEMS REALISTIC SO WILL GO WITH THEM.
AMG 71/89/72/91 3422
SSI 74/83/73/85 4522
JAX 71/91/72/92 3522
GNV 70/89/69/90 3523 33
BLS
FXUS62 KEYW 301827 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1100 AM EDT WED JUN 30 1999
FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THIS AFTN/EVE ARE TIMING OF PCPN AND
DETERMINATION OF STRENGTH OF TSTMS OVR E CNTRL U.P.
HIGH SC AND LOW AC CLDS CONTINUING TO IMPINGE ON WRN YOOP LATE THIS
MORG. ENHANCEMENT SEE ON IR AND WAT VAP LOOP. A FEW CU DVLPG OVHD AT
MQT. XPCT CLDS TO RAPIDLY THICKEN THIS AFTN. AREA OF RAIN ONLY ABT
70 MILES WIDE AND LINING UP FAIRLY WELL W/ MOST ENHANCED AREAS OF
CLDS.
THE CLDS/PCPN MATCH WELL W/ THE RUC H7-H4 QVEC CNVGC INITIALIZATIONS
FROM BOTH THE 09Z AND 12Z RUNS. THE 12Z FCST OF THIS Q-VEC FIELD
SHOWS IT SWING RAPILY TO THE NORTHEAST TDY AS S/WV ENERGY TRANSLATES
UP THE ERN LIMB OF A LOW AMPLITUDE UPR LVL RDG. LOOKING FOR THE
PCPN TO BE MOSTLY OVR THIS AFTN W HALF OF U.P BY EVE. TINKERED W/
TIMING OF EVE PCPN W HALF TO "EVENING" INSTD OF "MAINLY THIS EVE" AS
CONFIDENCE IN PCPN AFT MIDNIGHT IS VRY LOW.
FUTHER EAST...THINGS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED. TSTM THREAT BEST HERE
W/ DWPTS OF 61 AT NEWBERRY AND 63 AT MANISTIQUE. CRNT LAPS DATA
SHOWS CAPE OVR 1300 NORTH OF ERY W/ LFTD INDEX OF MINUS 4. SUNSHINE
DURG THE ERLY AFTN WL PROVIDE ADTNL DESTABILIZATION. SYNOPTIC
FACTORS WORKG AGAINST THESE THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES...BUT IT DOES
BEAR WATCHING.
LTL CHG TO TEMPS IN MOST ZONES AS INCRSG CLDS SHD PROVIDE FOR A
SLOWER WARMING TREND AND ARRIVING PCPN MAY EVEN RESULT IN A FALL OF
A FEW DEGS. XCPTN WL BE FAR EAST WHERE NEWBERRY IS ALRDY 66 AND STL
XPCTG ADTNL SUN.
THINK WNDS TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY/SERLY THAN CRNTLY FCST. WL GIVE
THEM A LOOK ALSO.
.MQT..NONE.
DESROSIERS
FXUS63 KGRR 301455 mi
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
355 PM CDT WED JUN 30 1999
PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:
WILL THERE BE ANY FLOODING?
WILL THERE BE SEVERE CONVECTION?
POPS
TEMPERATURES
MCS THAT DUMPED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR ERN OK
AND NW AR HAS ALL BUT DIED OUT. NOW A WATCHFUL EYE IS ON CONVECTION
CURRENTLY OVER SE KS. QUICK PEEKS AT LATEST RUC SUGGEST THIS BATCH OF
PRECIP WILL STAY NORTH OF FA FOR THE MOST PART.
ETA DID A FAIRLY GOOD JOB WITH LAST NIGHTS MCS AND ANOTHER IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN KS. AM LEANING TOWARDS ETA
SOLUTION. NGM IS CLOSE BUT A LITTLE SLOWER WITH TIMING. NGM ALSO
BRINGS BULK OF COMPLEX FURTHER EAST. WITH MUCH OF THE FA ALREADY
SATURATED IT WONT TAKE MUCH RAIN TO CREATE ADDITIONAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND LOTS OF MOISTURE IN PLACE
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINS LATE TONIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE AN FFA FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH
OF I-40. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EXPAND/EXTEND WATCH IF NECESSARY.
WILL LET CHANCE POPS RIDE OVER ALL OF FA TOMORROW WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES OVER SE OK AND WC AR. MCS EXPECTED TO EXIT SE PART OF FA BY
LATE MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD FIRE UP ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MCS ACTIVITY MAY FIRE UP WELL
NORTH OF THE FA TOMORROW NIGHT BUT WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
CASE NRN PORTIONS OF FA HAPPENED TO GET BRUSHED. H5 RIDGING BEGINS TO
COME INTO PLAY FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE TEMPS...EXCEPT UNDERCUT 2ND PERIOD THINKING THAT DEBRIS
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT THAT H5 RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. DRY WX EXPECTED...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 90S IN MOST PLACES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FCSTID = 23
TUL 70 83 72 91 / 70 30 20 10
FSM 70 85 71 92 / 50 40 10 10
MLC 71 85 72 92 / 50 40 10 10
BVO 69 82 70 91 / 70 30 20 10
FYV 69 80 70 89 / 70 30 20 10
IDB 72 87 72 93 / 40 40 10 10
BYV 69 80 70 89 / 70 30 20 10
MIO 69 80 70 89 / 70 30 20 10
MKO 70 83 72 91 / 70 30 20 10
F10 70 83 72 91 / 70 30 20 10
HHW 72 87 72 93 / 40 40 10 10
.TUL...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES ARZ001>002...
ARZ010>011.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES OKZ054>071.
--------------------
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: SLIGHT CHANCE NONE
NGM CONFIDENCE: 4 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
ETA CONFIDENCE: 7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
AVN CONFIDENCE: 5 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FCST CONFIDENCE: 7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FXUS64 KOUN 302045 ok