'Tis the Season to Be Thankful

By General D.L. Johnson
NWS Director

When we began the Atlantic hurricane season about six and a half months ago, little did we know just how unprecedented this year's hurricane season would be.

But we did know it would be an active season. We forecast 12-15 named storm systems, and we had 14. We forecast 6-8 hurricanes, and we had 9. We forecast that 2-4 of those hurricanes would be Category 3 or higher, and we missed this one slightly... we had 6.

The question always asked is the one we cannot answer in the middle of May. How many of those storms will make landfall in the U.S.? By the end of September, we had our answer, and Florida took the brunt, impacted by four of these storms, the first time the state has been impacted by four hurricanes in a single season. The last time one state took four hits was Texas back in 1886.

In Florida alone, the total number of recommended mandatory and voluntary evacuations ordered by emergency managers for the four storms was 9.4 million people. The damage caused by hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne prompted the largest relief effort ever undertaken by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

The storms resulted in 21 federal disaster declarations covering 13 states and Puerto Rico.

Cities and towns located hundreds and thousands of miles away from the initial impact were not immune. Parts of Richmond, VA, were inundated with a foot of rain from the remnants of Hurricane Gaston.

The number of tornadoes spawned by the storms was also unprecedented. Charley produced nine; Frances, 117; Ivan, 105; and Jeanne, 27. At least two dozen of the twisters resulting from Ivan's remnants affected the Washington, DC, area.

Property damage was incredible. Damage estimates in Florida are expected to eclipse the nearly $35 billion in damage cause by Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The Insurance Information Institute estimates that one in every five Florida homes was impacted by a hurricane to some degree this year.

There is much more for us to do. We must continually improve. Hurricane intensity forecasting is still a challenge. Charley may have been the most rapidly intensifying hurricane in history. We need to better understand why this happens.

We're looking at better ways to communicate forecast track, taking away emphasis from the skinny black line down the center of the cone of uncertainty.

We're working on probabilistic wind products.

We need to better communicate the inland hurricane force winds and find ways to heighten the message to our inland citizens. Hurricanes will never just be coastal events.

When we consider the magnitude of the season, loss of life attributable to these storms in the U.S.--while always tragic--was relatively low. Saving lives is our number one mission. But providing life-saving information to the public is a team effort, and I want to thank all team members for our performance last year.

Thank you to the folks at the National Hurricane Center, the NWS Weather Forecast Offices, River Forecast Centers, and the Center Weather Service Units in all the areas affected by these storms, who worked day in and day out to provide the most timely information to the public and emergency management officials.

Thank you, to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, which provided rainfall forecasts and other critical forecast information used by NWS Weather Forecast Offices to determine potential local impacts once the storms moved inland.

Thank you, to the Storm Prediction Center, using their tornado expertise to help Weather Forecast Offices identify potential tornado threats associated with hurricanes and issue appropriate watches.

Thank you, to the National Data Buoy Center, which with the U.S. Coast Guard, maintained the critical data buoys that provide sea level wind speed and direction.

Thank you to the folks at NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, who continue to delve into the secrets of hurricanes to improve forecasts, and to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Lab in Princeton and others on whose models we rely to determine storm track.

Thank you to the men and women of NOAA's Marine and Aviation Operation's Hurricane Hunters and the Air Force Reserve's 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron who logged hundreds of hours of flight time, flying through, above, and around the storms to gather the important data critical to identifying storm track and intensity.

Thank you to the Hurricane Liaison Team, a partnership between NOAA and FEMA that continues to pay off year after year, working with state and local emergency management officials to keep them aware of expected hurricane conditions and impacts, and briefing the highest levels of government.

Thank you to all the emergency managers who must make the tough decisions about evacuations.

Thank you, to NOAA's National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service, which provided images of the hurricanes every 7.5 minutes to provide more precise monitoring of the hurricane movement and severe storm development in Florida.

And a special thank you to our elected leadership and the Florida Congressional delegation. It really says something about the value to America that NOAA provides when we receive visits by President Bush and Governor Bush and we receive commendations from both the Senate and House. On behalf of all of NOAA, I thank them for their continued support.

And finally, thanks to the media who, day after day, hour after hour during this unprecedented season, worked with us to get the latest information to the public, about the potential havoc these storms could bring.

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Climate Outreach Presentations Given at WFO Chicago

NWS's climate services program was the main topic at the Chicago, IL, Weather Forecast Office (WFO) recently when Barbara Mayes, Liaison to Customers and Partners from the NWS Headquarters Climate Services Division, gave an enhanced view of NWS climate services to employees from the Lincoln, IL, and Davenport, IA, forecast offices and also met with local area NWS customers.

"This was a great way for NWS employees to find out what's up and coming in this important program, and offered customers an opportunity to learn and ask questions about NWS climate services," said Christine Krause, climate focal point for WFO Chicago and the organizer of the event. "Barbara did a great job and everyone was interested in what she presented."

The employee presentation detailed the Climate Services Implementation Plan highlighting the role of the WFOs in the climate program. The Climate Services program vision was included, as well as the regional and local goals of the program and those who embody the NOAA Climate team. Mayes also described a climate outreach toolkit to enhance cooperation between the NWS and its customers to facilitate outreach. Eastern Region has been prototyping the outreach toolkit, which should be released to the field by the beginning of 2005.

In addition, she provided the regional and local implementations of the climate services program. Mayes also discussed training opportunities for the WFOs and future projects.

In a separate briefing, Mayes met with representatives from a regional energy company and private meteorological firm in the Chicago area on their use of NWS climate data.

Mayes said the customer briefing sparked in-depth discussion about the public/private partnership role in providing climate services.

"Like the NWS employees' briefing, the customers received information on the vision and direction of the NWS climate services program, focusing on the implementation of regional and local climate services," said Mayes. "During and after the presentation, we discussed the importance of customer feedback during the process of implementing new services so that customers are aware of changes and can approach their local NWS office to discuss new products and services."

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Forecast Office Hosts Tribe Members at Diversity Luncheon

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NOAA Offices Participate in New York Science Teachers Association Conference

NWS and Estuarine Reserve personnel discussed ways to use the 2005 STANYS conference and STANYS resources to promote NOAA-wide education among the science teachers of New York State.

Over 500 science teachers from across New York State stopped by to meet with the NOAA staff. Popular items among the teachers were preparedness brochures since preparedness is a key element of the New York State Earth Science core curriculum, hurricane tracking charts, Teacher-at-Sea brochures, and Hudson River Estuarine Reserve materials. Identified opportunities include joint presentations at the 2005 conference, working on joint teacher education initiatives, and broadening NOAA's participation in the conference.

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