AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 920 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2002 SYNOPSIS: WATER VAPOR/RUC H5 COMPOSITE SHOWS TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC W/ AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE GULF. RAIN SHOWERS INFRINGING ON OUR NW CWFA, ASSOCIATED W/ VORT MAX MOVING NE INTO GA, HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. SKIES HAVE BECOME P/CLOUDY OVER NRN ZONES & GENERALLY M/SUNNY ELSEWHERE. IT WAS MUGGY W/ TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. WINDS WERE LIGHT & VARIABLE. FORECAST: UPDATED EARLIER TO REMOVE MORNING PRECIP FROM SE AL/SW GA ZONES & AMENDED SKY CONDITION. 12Z TLH RAOB MODIFIED TO T/TD OF 93/70 YIELDS CAPE 3844 J/KG, PWAT 1.62" & LI -10.5. TODAY'S SEA BREEZE REGIME IS TYPE 5 (W-SW >10 KTS). PWAT VALUES NEARLY A STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW CLIMATOLOGY, SO CURRENT 40% POP LOOKS REASONABLE. TEMPS & WINDS ON TRACK. NO FURTHER UPDATES SCHEDULED. MARINE: C-MANS/BUOYS REPORTING SE WINDS 6-10 KTS & SEAS 1-2 FT. ONLY MINOR TWEAK TO WINDS ON THE LATE MORNING CWF UPDATE. NO HIGHLIGHTS. FIRE WEATHER: NO HIGHLIGHTS. .TLH... .AL...NONE. .GA...NONE. .FL...NONE. MAJ fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 920 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2002 MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS AND ASSOCIATED WORDING. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING IN SE TX...BEGINING TO PUSH INTO EAST TX LAKE TERRITORY. RUC SHOWS A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX SLOWLY MEANDERING NORTHWARD THRU EAST TX OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT RADAR DISPLAY...THE ONLY INCONSISTENCY IS THAT RUC NOT SHOWING AND VERTICAL VELOCITIES WITH THIS UPPER LOW...PROBABLY DUE TO LIMITED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. WILL ASSUME THIS TO BE A LIMITATION OF MODEL DATA. UPPED POPS OVER LAKES AREA TO 40 PERCENT... LOWERED POPS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AND WORDED TO REFLECT LATER TONIGHT. EVERYONE PRETTY MUCH HAD LOWER 70S OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE THAT ALONE. MINOR WIND ADJUSTMENTS. VII .SHV...NONE. la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 815 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2002 LATEST RUC NOT DOING A VERY GOOD JOB THIS AFTERNOON AS IT IS PUTTING OUT HEAVY QPF FOR U.P. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LOOKING AT KMQT RADAR...A SHOWER DID TRY TO POP UP IN SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT QUICKLY FIZZLED. RUC QPF DID PUT OUT 0.25 INCH OF PCPN FROM 00Z-03Z FOR KIMT AND UP TO 0.10 AN HOUR SOUTH OF KSAW. VISIBLE SATELLITE HINTING AT SOME TCU...BUT STUFF IS NOT VERY ORGANIZED AS YET AND DO NOT EXPECT IT TO GET ORGANIZED AS SUBSIDENCE IS TOO STRONG ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL CAP. VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO SHOWING A LOT OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM THE FOREST FIRES IN NORTHERN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO IN FIRM CONTROL OF WEATHER WITH WATER VAPOR AND LDS SHOWING RING OF FIRE CONVECTION STARTING UP IN CENTRAL PLAINS AND BLOWING UP IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. LOOKING AT RUC AND ETA...VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO GET ANYTHING GOING TONIGHT AS 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS NIL. UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE CLOUDS IN EVENING FOR FAR SOUTH AND ALSO RAISED LOW TEMPS ALONG KEWEENAW PENINSULA ALONG THE LAKE AS DEW POINTS WAY HIGH AND LOW 50S SEEMED TO LOW. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST HAD THINGS WELL IN HAND AND NO MORE UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED. .MQT...NONE. MICHELS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 430 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2002 MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HEAT OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN CHC OF TSRA LATE SUN INTO MON. TONIGHT...WV LOOP/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS TROFS OVR COASTAL AREAS WITH AMPLIFYING 591 DM RDG OVR THE CNTRL PLAINS. BLDG HGTS INTO WRN GRT LAKES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING HAS INHIBITED DEEP CONVECTION OVR WRN GRT LAKES...DESPITE SBCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG OVR SCNTRL AND NE WI PER LATEST LAPS DATA. HAVE DECIDED TO YANK MENTION OF LAKE BREEZE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. 120+ KT UPR JET DIGGING INTO PAC NW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THE PLAINS RDG AXIS EWD INTO THE WRN GRT LAKES WEEKEND. SLY SFC GRAD AHD OF NRN PLAINS CDFNT WILL ALSO EDGE INTO UPR MI WITH LGT SLY WINDS DVLPG LATER THIS EVNG. .SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...PLAINS RDG BLDS INTO WRN GRT LAKES AS 5H HGTS RISE TO 590-591 DM BY SAT AFT PER 18Z ETA. HIGHER SFC DWPNTS MID 60S TO AROUND 70 WILL BE DRAWN INTO UPR MI AHD OF TIGHTENING SLY GRAD. DESPITE INCREASING SFC MSTR AND SB INSTABILITY...STG MID LVL CAP AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION ON SAT. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING FM ETA FCST SNDGS YIELD MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 IN DWNSPLG AREAS ALG LAKE SUPERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH 80 TO 85 INLAND EAST. ON SUN...MID LVL TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF 20-22C. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS OF 90 TO 95 DWNSLPG AREAS WEST AND CNTRL AND 85 TO 90 EAST. WITH DWPNTS CLIMBING INTO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WEST AND CNTRL...HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100F AT SOME LOCATION. WL CONTINUE SPS FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT THROUGH WEEKEND. AS PAC UPR JET DRIVES INTO BACKSIDE OF RDG AND PUSHES AXIS EAST ON SUN...MODELS SPEED UP TIMING OF SFC CDFNT AS IT MOVES INTO MN ARROWHEAD LATE SUN. INCREASING SB INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ALG CDFNT AND APPROACH OF WK SHRTWV HAVE DECIDE TO THROW LOW CHC POP FOR TSRA LATE IN WRN ZONES. .SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS CDFNT MOVES ACROSS CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR WK LLVL CONV TO TRIGGER SOME SCT TSRA ALG FNT. DESPITE GOOD SB INSTABILITY SUN NIGHT OF 1500-2500 J/KG ALG FNT...BETTER SPEED SHEAR AND DYNAMICS FOR SVR THREAT TENDS TO STAY TO NORTH. AS CDFNT EXITS ERN CWA ERY MON...INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR TSRA ERY THERE...OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE FM WEST. .EXTENDED...MORE WAVES MOVG THRU FLATTENED RDG FOR TUE AND WED AS ADVERTISED BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...SO KEPT IN CHC OF TSRA FOR THESE DAYS. STILL 5H HGTS REMAIN HIGH IN 588-590 DM SO WL STILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH MSTR POOLING ALG NEARBY FNTL BNDRY. AS FNT SAGS SOUTH OF AREA ON THU...LOOK FOR DRYING AND SLGT COOLING TREND FOR THU AND FRI PER MRF AND ECMWF. .MQT...NONE. VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 955 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2002 955 PM... MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT. MJ 307 PM... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT OUR WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WASHOUT IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...COMBINED WITH THE FOCUS PROVIDED BY THE WEAKENING FRONT...AND HAVE ALOUD A FEW ISOLATED AND THERMALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOW ARE THAT THERE IS SO LITTLE SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THAT THE SHOWERS ARE CHOKING THEMSELVES OFF WERE THEY STAND...AND THAT SURROUNDING SHOWERS ARE THEN FORMING OFF THE OUTFLOW FROM THE COLLAPSING PARENT SHOWER. THE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA AS FURTHER NORTH THE RUC SHOWS DECREASING THETA E VALUES INHIBITING ANY ACTIVITY. ANY OF THE SHOWERS THAT LAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS THE SUN SINKS LOW IN THE SKY THIS EVENING. LOOKING INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ASSERT ITS DOMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RANGE JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE DAY TIME HIGHS SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED IN LOWS. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND ANOTHER WEEK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. ETA AND AVN MODELS AGREE THAT THE DYNAMICS WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF MISSOURI AND KANSAS LEAVING OUR AREA HOT AND HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND. IN THE EXTENDED...THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. AVN AND ECMWF TRY TO MEANDER A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING DAYS 4-7. HOWEVER THERE IS NO REAL FEATURE TO FOCUS STORM DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...ANY ACTIVITY THAT FORMS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HAVE UPPED POPS TO AROUND 20%...BUT HAVEN'T INTRODUCED ANY INTO THE ZONES...WOULD RATHER WAIT THAN BLANKET TSRA CHCS. HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 90S AND LOWS AROUND 70. CUTTER/LVQ 145 PM... THE AFTERNOON FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES FOR THE KANSAS CITY...SAINT JOSEPH...SEDALIA AND WARRENSBURG AREAS. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE 90 DEGREE MARK AND ETA SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. I HAVE ALSO ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LINN AND MIAMI COUNTIES IN KANSAS AND BUTLER COUNTY IN MISSOURI. THE REMNANTS OF OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS ACTED AS ENOUGH OF A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS TO SPROUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH WITH VERY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. A LACK OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD PREVENT STORM FORMATION IN THE KANSAS CITY AND WARRENSBURG AREAS. KOCH 300 AM... QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE NEXT FEW DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH MODELS WASHING OUT FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD BACK NORTH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND HEAT INDICES. HOWEVER...EAST COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRIERIA. GUIDANCE APPEARS IN BALLPARK. IN THE EXTENDED...ALL MODELS DEVELOP WEAKNESS IN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH BREAK IN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY. A SLOW INCREASE IN THE DEPTH OF GULF MOISTURE TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE OF A THREAT AS CAP WEAKENS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WITH SUCH A WEAK FEATURE...ANY SHIFT IN POSITION WILL AFFECT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...SO WILL LET DAY SHIFT VERIFY TREND WITH NEXT MODEL RUN. DB .EAX... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 307 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2002 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT OUR WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WASHOUT IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...COMBINED WITH THE FOCUS PROVIDED BY THE WEAKENING FRONT...AND HAVE ALOUD A FEW ISOLATED AND THERMALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TO POP UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOW ARE THAT THERE IS SO LITTLE SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THAT THE SHOWERS ARE CHOKING THEMSELVES OFF WERE THEY STAND...AND THAT SURROUNDING SHOWERS ARE THEN FORMING OFF THE OUTFLOW FROM THE COLLAPSING PARENT SHOWER. THE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA AS FURTHER NORTH THE RUC SHOWS DECREASING THETA E VALUES INHIBITING ANY ACTIVITY. ANY OF THE SHOWERS THAT LAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS THE SUN SINKS LOW IN THE SKY THIS EVENING. LOOKING INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ASSERT ITS DOMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RANGE JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE DAY TIME HIGHS SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED IN LOWS. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND ANOTHER WEEK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. ETA AND AVN MODELS AGREE THAT THE DYNAMICS WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF MISSOURI AND KANSAS LEAVING OUR AREA HOT AND HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND. IN THE EXTENDED...THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. AVN AND ECMWF TRY TO MEANDER A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING DAYS 4-7. HOWEVER THERE IS NO REAL FEATURE TO FOCUS STORM DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...ANY ACTIVITY THAT FORMS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HAVE UPPED POPS TO AROUND 20%...BUT HAVEN'T INTRODUCED ANY INTO THE ZONES...WOULD RATHER WAIT THAN BLANKET TSRA CHCS. HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 90S AND LOWS AROUND 70. CUTTER/LVQ 145 PM... THE AFTERNOON FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES FOR THE KANSAS CITY...SAINT JOSEPH...SEDALIA AND WARRENSBURG AREAS. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE 90 DEGREE MARK AND ETA SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. I HAVE ALSO ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LINN AND MIAMI COUNTIES IN KANSAS AND BUTLER COUNTY IN MISSOURI. THE REMNANTS OF OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS ACTED AS ENOUGH OF A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS TO SPROUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH WITH VERY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. A LACK OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD PREVENT STORM FORMATION IN THE KANSAS CITY AND WARRENSBURG AREAS. KOCH 300 AM... QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE NEXT FEW DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH MODELS WASHING OUT FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD BACK NORTH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND HEAT INDICES. HOWEVER...EAST COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRIERIA. GUIDANCE APPEARS IN BALLPARK. IN THE EXTENDED...ALL MODELS DEVELOP WEAKNESS IN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH BREAK IN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY. A SLOW INCREASE IN THE DEPTH OF GULF MOISTURE TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE OF A THREAT AS CAP WEAKENS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WITH SUCH A WEAK FEATURE...ANY SHIFT IN POSITION WILL AFFECT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...SO WILL LET DAY SHIFT VERIFY TREND WITH NEXT MODEL RUN. DB .EAX... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 935 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2002 CONVECTION MOSTLY MOVG OFFSHORE BUT SOME STILL CONTINUES IN NORTH CENTRAL NC. RUC40 CAPTURES ONGOING PCPN PRETTY WELL AND DRIVES IT ALMOST STRAIGHT S AND KILLS IT AFT 09Z OR SO. STLT AND RADAR INDICATING PCPN IS MOVING MORE SE AND MAY MOV INTO OUR CWA BEFORE THE NIGHT IS OVR. CONSEQUENTLY, LOWERED POPS FROM 60 TO 30 FOR RMDR OF TNGT. ALSO CHNGD WIND DIR FROM W TO SW. MARINE: WL LOWR SCA AND PUT UP SCSEC FOR TNGT AS WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DCRSD BELOW CRITERIA AND TREND IS FOR A CONTINUATION. MHX...NONE. TK nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 725 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2002 ************QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING CLOUDINESS EXCEPT FOR NORTHWEST*********** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.... MOISTURE RICH(PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 2 INCHES) AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK IMPULSES LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS AREA TONIGHT. MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT SHEARED AXIS SWINGS ACROSS. TODAY/TONIGHT... CURRENTLY ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY BEING GENERATED BY WEAK VORT CENTER MOVING ACROSS THE AREA(DEPICTED QUITE WELL RUC/M-ETA). ANOTHER ONE NEAR ATL WILL LIFT NORTHEAST...WEAKENING AS IT REACHES CWA BY DAYBREAK. LOOKS LIKE ACTIVITY WITH THIS ONE WILL STAY TO OUR WEST. EXPECT A LULL IN ACTIVITY...THEN CONVECTION FIRING AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL RIPPLES(PVA) SKIRTING ACROSS...OMEGA AND INSTABILITY. COULD END UP QUITE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL INCREASE POPS TODAY TO 50 PERCENT EXCEPT 60 PERCENT SOUTHEAST. CONTINUE 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR TONIGHT. WILL NOT CONFINE TO EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS SOUTH OF AREA BY 09Z. TEMPERATURES TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...UPPER 80S/AROUND 90. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE MORNING CLOUDINESS...BREAKING UP SOMEWHAT LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY LOWER 70S. SATURDAY/SUNDAY... ETA STILL MOST PROGRESSIVE IN PUSHING DEEP MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY. AVN SLOWER BUT NOW TRENDING TOWARD ETA AS IT PUSHES MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUN. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CHANCE SOUTHERN TIER. AVN CLOSES OFF UPPER AND DEVELOPS WAVE ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE TENDS TO BULGE BACK TOWARD SOUTHEAST SECTIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WONT MENTION ANY POPS AT THIS TIME. EXTENDED... AS AFOREMENTIONED...PER AVN CUTOFF AND SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST ATLC COAST PUSHES DEEP MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO EASTERN CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LAST NIGHT'S GFS AND MEDIUM RANGE ALL DIFFER ON SOLUTIONS. WILL CONTINUE GOING TREND OF PARTLY CLOUDY. .RAH...NONE. RA nc SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 952 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2002 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST. CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES SOME CLOUD TOP WARMING. ALSO NOTING A DECREASE IN LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE IS STREAMING NORTHWARD OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GULF COMPLEX. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME HEATING INITIATED ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FORECAST IS COMPLICATED TO SAY THE LEAST AS CURRENT COASTAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE WHERE THIS AFTERNOON'S ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP. FOR THIS REASON...DO NOT WANT TO ALTER THE CURRENT HIGH POP FORECAST THAT IS IN PLACE. 42/47/TF .HGX...SCEC 0-60 NM. PRELIMS... CLL TT 090/073 088/074 088 758 IAH TT 086/074 084/074 087 858 GLS TT 084/077 084/078 085 878 --------------------------------------------------------------------- .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... INTERESTING SCENARIO UNDERWAY...WEAK 850 BOUNDARY EVIDENT IN UPPER AIR PLOTS/MODEL DATA ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA. CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED OVER WALKER/MADISON/GRIMES COUNTIES. OBSERVATIONS COMING IN NEAR 1 INCH OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS AT UTS. FAIRLY WARM TOPPED TROPICAL CONVECTION AND EXPECT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN PROCESS OCCURRING BENEATH THE RADAR BEAM SO RADAR ESTIMATES OF 50 TO 75 PERCENT OF OBSERVED IS ABOUT WHAT'S TO BE EXPECTED. RUC AND ETA ARE FORECASTING THIS AREA OF PRECIP TO HANG ON AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET VERY SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST. THEY ARE FORECASTING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LL THETAE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL OMEGA TO GET STRONGER THROUGH 18Z AND ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD...BUT CURRENT RADAR TREND HAS BEEN ONE OF SLOW WEAKENING. LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION AGAIN HAS FIRED OFF OVER THE GULF AND IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTH AND HAS REACHED THE COAST AS OF 3 AM. THE WIND PROFILE OVER THE AREA WOULD SUPPORT THE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH THEN SLOW DOWN INSTEAD OF VEERING OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TODAY-SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH POPS AND THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT (PW 2"+) AND HIGH LAYER RH. MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING A DISCREET SURGE OF MOISTURE TO MOVE OFF OF THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE FA...AVN STILL HAS THIS FEATURE...ETA DOES AS WELL BUT HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE. THIS SURGE SHOULD ARRIVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. POPS TONIGHT WILL RUN HIGHER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS ON ACCOUNT OF THIS SURGE. THIS PLUME SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BY SUNDAY MORNING BE MAINLY OVER THE WESTERNMOST FA. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN START TO TAPER BACK POPS. THE UPPER SHEAR AXIS THAT HAS BEEN OUR MAIN CULPRIT THE LAST FEW DAYS SHOULD BE WELL WEST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A HIGH BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MARINE...WILL CONTINUE THE SCEC 0-60 NM. 45/37 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA 256 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2002 MAIN AREA CONVECTION EXITING SE PART OF CWA AT THIS TIME. STILL HAVE A TROF TO THE NW ALOFT AND MAIN FNT WL NW OF AREA WITH SOME CONVECTION OVR NW MD AND PA. HOWEVER LOOKING AT AIR MASS OVR CWA AND CLDS OR EARLIER CONVECTION HAVE DIMINISHED INSTABILITY. STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE AND COULD SEE AN ISOLATED TSTM OVR THE AREA BUT NOT ANTICIPATING. THE RUC SHWS DECENT VV WHERE TSTMS ARE NOW TO THE NW BUT THAT DIMINISHES RAPIDLY THIS AFTN AS THE FNT PUSHES S AGAIN DECREASING THE CHCS. AREA IN DRIER AIR MASS ON SAT AND SUN WITH MORE A MARITIME FL FM NE AND AIR LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY STABLE. SO WL GO PTLY TO MSTLY CLR BOTH DAYS. NOT MUCH CHGS IN EXTENDED AS FNT DISSIPATES TO S OF THE AREA. MODELS DO NOT SHW ANOTHER FNT PASSAGE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE SRLY AND HGTS BUILDING ALOFT. THIS WL AGAIN BEGIN TO RAISE TEMPS AND INCR MOISTURE. COULD BE ISOLATED TSTMS BY WED BUT NOT READY TO PUT IN THE FCST. TEMPS WL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. TNGT LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND HIGHS SAT AND SUN STAY IN THE 80S. FCSTID = 92 SBY 67 86 63 87 / 10 10 10 10 OXB 68 81 64 83 / 10 10 10 10 ECG 73 88 69 88 / 20 20 20 20 ORF 72 85 70 86 / 20 20 20 20 PHF 68 86 66 86 / 10 10 10 10 AKQ 69 88 66 89 / 20 20 20 20 RIC 67 88 64 89 / 10 10 10 10 FVX 67 89 64 90 / 20 20 20 20 .AKQ... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. JAB va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA 957 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2002 12Z ANLYS SHOWING ACTUAL SFC FRONT OOZING THRU THE SRN OH VLY THIS MORN WITH GOOD LEE TROF INDICATED JUST E OF THE BLUE RDG. SCTD SHRA WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT OVER SW VA/SE WVA...GNRLY JUST AHEAD OF DRYING ALOFT SEEN IN CURRENT VAPOR LOOP. EXPECT SHRA TO CONT OVER THE WRN HALF THIS MORN BEFORE CNVRGNC BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO ERN TROF AS SOME HEATING GETS GOING. MODIFIED MORN RAOBS AGAIN SHOW GOOD INSTAB ALTHO APRS DEEPER W/NW SFC-85H SHOULD LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION NW TIER ESPCLY AS DRY AIR ALOFT WORKS IN. QUESTS OVER THE SE WITH AMT OF INSOLATION GIVEN CURRENT WDSPRD DEBRIS CLDNS AND WHETHER OR NOT DOWNSLOPE MAY INHIBIT OR PUSH MCON AXIS FARTHER SE LATER ON. WITH BEST AFTN CVRG LKLY TO DVLP TWD THE PIEDMONT CTYS PER LATEST RUC ANLYS...PLAN TO UP POPS THERE A NOTCH AND THEN STAGGER BACK TO LOWER CHC POPS FROM CENTRAL VA TO SE WVA FOR THE AFTN. ALTHO MORN THICKNESS VALUES STILL QUITE WARM...APRS SLOW START DUE TO MORN CLDNS/SHRA...AND PTNL AFTN TSRA SE...MAY BUMP DOWN OR WIDEN RANGE IN HIGHS A BIT. .RNK... NC...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. JH --------------------------------------------------------------------- PREVIOUS AFD BELOW: A SLOW MOVING SFC FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCT SHRA/TSRA. PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...THREAT FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS PRETTY HIGH FOR THE MTNS THIS MORNING...BUT FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM THE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN ALOFT AFTER 18Z...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE THREAT OF SVR DEEP CONVECTION...BUT ALSO ACT TO LIMIT RANDOM AIRMASS CONVECTION. ANYTHING THAT ORGANIZES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE PER 25 TO 30KT MID LEVEL FLOW. DRYING ALOFT AND NW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SHUT THINGS DOWN PRETTY QUICK THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP THREAT TONIGHT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND...SIGNIFICANT DRYING TAKING PLACE ABOVE 700 MB. BLO 700 MB ITS NOT AS CUT AND DRY WITH HIGHER RH PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ESP ALONG AND WEST OF THE MTNS. FCSTID = 11 ROA 87 67 87 67 / 50 10 10 10 LYH 87 67 87 67 / 50 10 10 10 DAN 87 67 87 67 / 50 10 10 10 BLF 79 59 82 61 / 60 10 10 10 LWB 79 59 82 61 / 60 10 10 10 BCB 81 62 83 62 / 60 10 10 10 TNB 79 61 81 61 / 60 30 20 20 va SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 325 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2002 UPR AIR ANALYSIS SHOW AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH CONVECTION FIRING AROUND THE UPR HIGH CENTERED OVER IOWA PER PROFILER DATA AND RUC ANALYSIS. PLENTY OF CI/CS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION COMBINING WITH SMOKE/HAZE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN WITH US THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH BRINGS IN THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TODAY... WHILE THE OVERALL PLAYER WILL BE THE UPR LEVEL HIGH IN PLACE...AVN/ETA ARE AT ENDS WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE. THE 850-700 LAYER IS QUITE DIFFERENT WITH THE ETA MORE MOIST COMPARED TO THE AVN. 00Z LAUNCHES DEPICT LITTLE MOISTURE IN THIS LAYER AND SATELLITE PIX ALSO CONFIRM. WITH THIS IN MIND...MODIFICATIONS TO THE CU SCHEME SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT FOR TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE AFOREMENTIONED CI/CS THANKS TO UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. TEMPS YESTERDAY A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED (HEAT ISLAND ISSUES) AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE UP TREND PER MAV/MET. 500MB HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH SFC HIGH MIGRATING EAST INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK. TONIGHT... SFC GRADIENT AND GEOSTROPHIC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH 500MB HIGH NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BUT THE LIGHT GRADIENT CONTINUES...AND SOME INCREASE WITH RESPECT TO DEWPOINTS...SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SFC TO 60AGL CPD/S REMAIN ABOVE THRESHOLDS TO MINIMIZE FOG THREAT/HAZARD. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF LAKE ERIE BUT DELTA T/S ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY AND MOCLR SKIES. SUNDAY... STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS RACES EAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...LOWER MICHIGAN SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST...BUT STILL A RATHER LIGHT GRADIENT. WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO NEAR +20C...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS AVERAGING AROUND 68F...WILL MAKE FOR A HOT END TO THE WEEKEND. SOME CONCERN ABOUT CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. POINT SOUNDINGS OFF THE ETA INDICATE 925/950MB FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH SO TO PRECLUDE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. CAPES DO CLIMB INTO 2K RANGE ACROSS THE LOCAL CWA WITH VALUES NEAR 4K J/KG OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. IF CONVECTION DOES FIRE TO OUR WEST...850-300 FLOW AND CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST PROPAGATION NEARLY STATIONARY OR TO THE SOUTH...AWAY FROM SOUTHEAST LOWER. IN ADDITION...THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITIONS OVER THE LOCAL CWA CLIMB IN THE AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL LEAVE IN THE DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. PTSUNNY LOOKS GOOD WITH INCREASE SFC MOISTURE ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT. SUNDAY NIGHT... 500MB RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE STATE WITH 850-700 RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT AS COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVES DO A SMALL NUMBER ON THE RIDGE. THE ETA CONTINUES WITH ITS PREVIOUS IDEA OF WEAKENING THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN LOWER OVERNIGHT WHILE THE AVN IS STRONGER AND HANGS ONTO FORCING OVERNIGHT. SYNOPTIC FORCING LOOKS WEAK ALTHOUGH WE WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. FOR NOW WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PTCLOUDY SKIES AND A WARM NIGHT...UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN SPOTS. MONDAY... THE AVN IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH FLATTENING THE RIDGE WHILE THE GEM/UKMET HOLD ON A BIT LONGER. RESULT IS QPF FIELDS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA PER THE AVN WITH NONE PRINTED OUT FROM THE GEM/UKMET. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE HAVE A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE...AND CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST HOLDING BACK FROPA...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F...POINT TO A VERY HOT BEGINNING TO THE MONTH OF JULY. OFFICIAL HEAT INDEX FORECAST VALUES CLIMB ABOVE 100F SO THIS WILL HAVE TO MONITORED. LOOKING AHEAD... THE NEW AVN/ETA BRING POTENT WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH SFC WAVE (LIKELY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED) DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TUESDAY MORNING. FROPA PER THE AVN OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INTERESTING TO SAY THE LEAST! HOWEVER...THE GEM OFFERS ANOTHER IDEA WITH THE FRONT ALMOST A DAY BEHIND BUT A HINT OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROF. WE WILL ALLOW FOR DAY SHIFT TO OVERLOOK ALL OF THE NEW AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING CHANGES...BUT SEVERE WX POTENTIAL EXISTS. WE WILL ADD THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. .DTX...NONE. BGM mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1253 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2002 .DISC... .BOTTOM LINE...LESS HUMID AIR HERE AT LAST...BUT NOT FOR LONG. .PROBLEM OF THE DAY...DON/T FORSEE ANY IN NR TERM. DIFFERENCES IN MDL QPF/S SUN AND BYND. .SYNOPSIS...BROAD ULVL RDG OVR CNTRL NOAM BLDG EWD TO REPLACE BROAD TROAL OVR ERN US. TROAL IN E ACTUALLY FCST TO SHARPEN OFF NEW ENG CST TDA AND MOV SLOLY NEWD THRAFT. SERIES OF VMAXES RACING ACRS NRN US ROCKIES/NRN PLNS SENDS S/W TROAL ROTATING NEWD INTO CNTRL CAN. AT SFC...LOPRES MOVS NWD TO WRN SHR HDSBAY LT SUN WHILE CDFNT MOVS ACRS NRN PLNS TO WRN GRTLKS. IN ERN NOAM...RDG HIPRES OH VLY/ GRTLKS/QUE BLDG SEWD TO OFF ATLC CST ERY SUN. INCRG WAA OVR NY/NEW ENG SUN. LLVL NWLY CRCLN ERY TDA WKNS QUICKLY BCMG L/V TAFTN. SRN PTN OF WRMFNT ERN CAN SUN BRINGS INCR MSTR TO NY/WRN NEW ENG. .MDLS...EXAMINED AVN/META/RAFS/2 CNDN MDLS PREPING FOR FCST. NOTED THAT RAFS/META CLSD OFF TROAL E OF NEW ENG AND MOVD IT MORE SLOLY N/E THAN AVN/GEM. ALTHO GEM DRY SUN...RAFS/AVN HAVE XTSV AREA LGT QP OVR CWA SUN. META DVLPS SML AREA CONVECTIVE QP ACRS CHMPLN VLY INTO VT LT SUN. DESPITE THESE FCSTS...FWC POPS RMN VRY LOW THRU SUN. META BLDS INSTBLTY SUN AS SFC DWPTS RS TO L70S CHMPLN VLY. SFC/BASED CAPES INVOF 2K UNITS NRN CHMPLN VLY LT AND OVR 1K FURTHER S INTO HDSVLY/SNE. .SHORT TERM...RUC SHOWS VMAX DIGGING SEWD INVOF ERN LK ONT. THIS ASSOC WITH INCR ULVL CLDNS OVR CWA. XPC VMAX TO CONT SEWD AND CLDS TO MOV OUTTA THE CWA INVOF DABRK. SOME INSTBLTY RMNS OVR CWA...BUT MUCH MORE IN ECNTRL NEW ENG. CUD SEE ISOLD TSTM OVR MTNS. HWR... SYNOPTIC SINKING IS THE RULE AND MDL FCST SNDGS SUGGEST SOME WRMG OF MLVL SUBSIDENCE LYR WHICH MAY CAP CONVECTION. IN ANY CASE...FWC/MAV POPS ARE VRY LOW AND GOING FCST IS DRY...AND WL STAY W A DRY FCST. MAXT MNLY 80/85 MAJOR RVR VLYS...W AREAS M70S IN NRN MTNS. NLY SFC WND MNLY LSTN 10 MAH TAFTN...ARND 10 MID MRNG. .LONG TERM...INSTBLTY FCST TO INCR ACRS NRN ZNS TNGT ASSOC W APCHG WRMFNT...BUT DON/T SEE ANY KICKER TO GET SHWR/TSTM OUTTA IT. FWC/MAV POPS WELL BLO THRESHOLD TNGT. WL GO W DRY FCST THRUT. FCST SNDG SHOW INCR RH INVOF 20K FT. MNLY SKC XPC. MIN/T MNLY U50S/L60S. FWC MOS MOSTLY MU50S. L/V WND. WL CONT W DRY FCST FOR SUN PER FWC MOS POPS/GOING ZN FCST. MAV POPS 30/40 PCT CONSISTENT W WDSPRD LGT QP OF AVN. META FCST SNDGS SHOW INCR IN MSTR NR SFC AND ALF...BUT SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVRN IN MLVL SUGGEST THAT ANY CU THAT FORM WL BE CAPPED AND SPRD INTO AC. PERHAPS A PSNY FCST WUD BE BTR THAN THE CURRENT MSNY. MAY INDC MORE CLDNS IN AFTN. LLVL THKNS/MDL SNDGS SUGGEST MAXT FEW DEGS HIR THAN TDA. LGT SWLY SFC WND. .XTND FCST...META/AVN FCSTS SOME LGT QP ERN ZNS SUN NGT. INSTBLTY EXISTS AND META FCSTS CUPL VMAXES THAT MAY AFFECT CWA. HWR... CNDN/AVN HAVE ULVL GYRE FURTHER N/E OF RGN AND DON/T FCST THESE NOISEY/LOOKING VMAXES THAT MAY BE ASSOC W THE FINER MDL GRID. FWC POPS MOVG TWD CLIMO BY SUN NGT AND MNLY JUST BLO THRESHOLD. AVN MAV POPS JUST ABV THRESHOLD. GOING FCST IS DRY AND WL STAY W IT. AVN SUGGESTS PLENTY HEAT AND INSTBLTY THRU ERY PART OF COMING WEEK. COOLER AIR BGNS TO ARRIVE WED. ALTHO AVN FCSTS A LTL QP CTSKLS INTO LWR HDSVLY MON...CNDN GLOBAL MDL IS DRY. BOTH INDC SM VMAX MOVG ACRS CWA FM NW MON. SINCE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN QPF BTWN MDLS AND GOING FCST IS DRY...WL LV IT DRY. AVN FCST QP TUE...CNDN STAYS DRY. AVN/S VMAX OVR CWA SUPPORTS SOME QP. GOING FCST HAS PCPN AND WL LV AS IS. BEST CHC QP APRS TO BE TUE NGT INTO WED IF CDFNT MOVS IN PER AVN/CNDN FCSTS. CNDN A BIT SLOR THAN AVN AND WUD LINGER QP LONGER. GOING FCST HAS PCPN WED COVERED WELL. NO CHGS TO XTND FCST. .HYDRO STATUS... RECENT CONVECTIVE RAIN BROUGHT SOME RVRS UP A BIT. FOR EXAMPLE...HOOSIC 4/5 FT RS. MHK RVR EXCESS WATER TOO...BUT NO FLDG. W DRY WX TAKING HOLD...XPC RVRS TO FALL OVR THE WEEKEND. .ALY...NONE. KHH ny NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV 845 AM PDT SAT JUN 29 2002 ONLY SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE S/WV EJECTING AROUND BASE OF NEG TILTED TROUGH ALONG THE PAC NW COAST AND ASSCD CLDS ACROSS NRN BORDERS. MAXES TODAY LOOK SLGHTLY COOLER AS WELL IN NRN ZONES. 15Z WVPR PIX SHWS NEG TILTED UPPR TROUGH FROM WRN BC COAST INTO NW CORNER OF NV. A DECENT S/WV IS EJECTING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM NE OREGON WITH VORT LOBE INTO NW HUMBOLDT COUNTY. THERE IS SOME MID LVL MOISTURE ASSCD WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE RUC HAS IT INITIALIZED WELL. NOSE OF 120KT JET SHEARS THIS FEATURE RAPIDLY INTO MT BY 00Z AS UPPR FLOW BACKS MORE ZONAL WESTERLY. H7 TEMPS COOL 3-5C TODAY ALONG NRN BORDERS ALONG WITH SOME MID CLDS AND CURRENT FCST TRENDS WELL WI SKY COVER...MAYBE SOME VIRGA JARBIDGE MTNS. 12Z LKN RAOB CONTINUES WITH PRONOUNCED DRYING FRM SFC-500MB ALONG WITH WARMING ALOFT SO STABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AFTER S/WV SHEARS EAST. GRADIENT THIS AFTN WILL ALSO PICK UP AND CERTAINLY SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. AVN/ETA SIMILAR IN RETROGRADING 4CORNERS HIGH AND BAJA LOW WEST NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RETURN OF 596H. AVN IS TRENDING TOWARD ITS USUAL APPROACH OF CENTRAL MTN COVERGENCE ZONE SUN-MON BETWEEN WESTERLIES NRN ZONES AND SRLY FLOW SRN ZONES. ALONG WI MORE FAVORABLE MID LVL FLOW PATTERN IN AZ THE AVN BRINGS 500MB MOISTURE AND SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY INTO CENTRAL ZONES. FOR NOW WL LIKELY PUT SOME SKY COVER IN CNTRL ZONES SUN/MON BUT NOT ANTICIPATING CONVECTION TO AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING DRY ATMOSPHERE. SLA EKO...NONE. nv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 930 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2002 OHX SOUNDING ALONG WITH LATEST RUC AND MESO ETA SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT CLOUD COVER MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS APPARENT UP THROUGH 750 MB AND THE SOUNDING SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S BEFORE THE MIXING OF THE DRIER AIR ALOFT COMMENCES. CONVECTION CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AL AND WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL LEAVE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTED...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL UPDATE SHORTLY AND ADJUST CLOUD COVERAGE. .BNA...NONE. 21 tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 302 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2002 QUESTIONS FOR FCST WL BE PCPN CHCS AS FNTS APCH OR ENTER FA LATE SUN...AND AGN LATE MON INTO WED. TEMPS ALSO A LESSER CONCERN. 12Z UPR AIR ANLYS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDC JET EVENTUALLY DRIVING FNTS PUSHING INTO PAC NW WITH SVRL SHRT WVS MOVG ALG MT/CANADA BORDER...AND ALSO NR 45N 140W. 19Z SFC ANLYS PLACES SFC LOW ACRS SWRN ND WITH ASSOCD WRMFNT INTO SWRN MN AND ERN IA. LAPS/MSAS ANLYS INDCS CNVGNC MAX FM NRN IA INTO MN WHERE CIN HIGHEST. HWVR STLT DERIVED PRODUCTS AS WELL AS RUC/LAPS DATA INDC CAPES AOA 4000 J/KG AND CIN AOB 25 J/KG INVOF CU OVR SERN FA. DO NOT FEEL CNVGNC STG ENOUGH TO POP ANYTHING ATTM SO WL START WITH DRY FCST THIS EVE BUT WATCH TRENDS CLOSER TO ISSUANCE TIME. IN LATER PDS...ETA SEEMS TO BE MDL OF CHOICE BASED ON CURRENT WX. AVN/NGM QPF TOO AGGRESSIVE THIS EVE...AT LEAST FOR NOW. WITH TEMPS SO WRM ALF...FEEL LOWER ETA QPF BEST AS AREAL CVRG SHOULD NOT BE GREAT. CINS DO NOT LOWER TOO MUCH BUT WITH CNVGNC INCRG AND STG BTWN 00-03Z AND CAPES 2500-3500 J/KG DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT WITH DRY FCST PER RECENT SPC DAY 2 OTLK (COORD W/FSD). LOW LVL JET AND 1000/850MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FAIRLY WEAK SUN NGT SO WL LEAVE FCST DRY AFT MIDNIGHT WHEN SFC BASED DVLPMT DSIPTS. SIMILAR SITUATION STARTING AGN MON EVE. SFC BASED CONVECTION SHOULD FORM ALG FNT NW OF FA EARLY IN THE EVE AND THEN MOVE INTO NRN FA. QG FORCING A BIT STGR MON NGT HWVR SO PCPN MAY LINGER AFT SS. BACLIN ZN THEN LAYS OUT ACRS FA INTO TUE WITH CHCS FA WIDE...AND THEN S AND W TUE NGT INTO WED. FLOW RELATIVELY WEAK BUT PWS 1.75 TO 2 INCHES SO SLOW MOVG TSTMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD BUT HVY RAIN AMTS. 12Z NGM/AVN MOS TEMPS NOT HANDLING CURRENT OBS WELL BEING TOO COOL. WL STAY CLOSER TO ETA MOS WHICH IS A BIT WRMR. LOW LVL TEMPS COOL SLGTLY FOR SUN SO XPC PERISTENCE MINUS A DEGREE OR TWO TMRW WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY ETA MOS. IN MED RANGE...00Z AND 12Z AVN AND ENSEMBLES...UKMET...AND NOGAPS SIMILAR BRUSHING U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH TROF MIDWEEK FOLLOWING BY RIDGING. CANADIAN AND ECMWF STGR WITH TROF OR RIDGING RESPECTIVELY AT THAT TIME...BUT SEEM LIKE OUTLIERS. AVN A TAD SLOWER WITH WEAKER UPR LVL RDG PAST FEW RUNS BUT CANNOT SEE MUCH REASON TO DEVIATE ATTM. SOLUTIONS FOR IA WX ALL QUITE SIMILAR FM MDL TO MDL WITH MEAN RDG MOVG FM PLAINS INTO GTLKS/OH VLY. THIS KEEPS US DRY AND QUITE WARM THU INTO SAT AS BACLIN ZN AND CVRGNC PUSHES NWD. MOS AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE TEMPS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL RECENTLY SO WL STAY AOA WRMR OF TWO NUMBERS. .DSM...NONE SMALL ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 120 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2002 PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY. ALREADY NOTICING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MESOETA AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ELEVATED INVERSION AROUND 650MB WHICH MAY PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN HOW CLOSE THAT CAP IS TO BEING BROKEN IN THE MODELS AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE ENERGY IF IT IS BROKEN...WILL OPT TO KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY JUST TO BE SAFE. SHOULD SEE THE CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE AREA GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE MORE ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. GUIDANCE POPS ARE ALSO TRENDING UP TO MORE LEGITIMATE ISOLATED LEVELS FOR SUNDAY. THE AVN INDICATES A BIT MORE MOISTURE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...SO WILL INCREASE POPS TO SCATTERED LEVELS...BUT MAINTAIN DIURNAL WORDING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BEYOND TUESDAY THE AVN/MRF AND ECMWF DISAGREE CONSIDERABLY. THE AVN/MRF LOWERS HEIGHTS ALOFT IN THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TO SWEEP BY THE AREA WITH A NICE SURFACE HIGH IN ITS WAKE. WITH THE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SCOURED OUT AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING RIGHT ON TOP OF US...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD END THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A BROADER RIDGE AND ONLY BEGINS TO MOVE IT EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS EVOLUTION WOULD PUT THE AREA IN AT LEAST WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD INDICATE BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION THEN. THE AVN/MRF WAS TOO QUICK TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA LAST WEEK...AND AM THEREFORE INCLINED TO GO WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. WILL INDICATE DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE AND THEN JUST MENTION GENERAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FWC AND MAV GUIDANCE ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MESOETA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ALL OF THIS IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH EXISTING FORECAST. SEE NO REASON TO ALTER PERSISTENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF LOWER 70S FOR LOWS AND LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS. THE MEX EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 80S FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WILL CONTINUE LOWER 90S GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MRF/AVN SCENARIO. .PAH...NONE. DRS ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 445 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2002 MAIN CONCERNS INCLUDE DANGEROUS HEAT SUNDAY...THEN CHC OF TSRA ALONG INCOMING CDFNTS SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. WV LOOP/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPR RDG OVR CNTRL CONUS WITH VIGOROUS SHRTWV TROF DIGGING INTO PAC NW AND NRN RCKYS. AT SFC...BROAD RDG OVR ERN CONUS WITH LOW PRES AND ASSOC CDFNT OVR THE WRN PLAINS. MCV BRUSHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR ATTM BUT MID LVLS REMAIN CAPPED AND QUITE DRY PER 12Z GRB SNDG SO NO CONVECTION HAS BEEN INITIATED OVR UPR MIDWEST. .TONIGHT...MID LVLS REMAIN QUITE CAPPED AMD DRY AS MOIST SLY FLOW TIGHTENS AHEAD OF INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM. LOOK FOR DWPNTS TO REMAIN NR CURRENT LVLS (MID TO UPPER 60S). WITH WIND AND MIXING LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL BLO 70 TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN DWNSLPG AREAS ALG LAKE SUPERIOR. .SUNDAY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE CWA AS 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD DURING THE AFT WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF 22-23C. SFC WMFNT OVR IA AND NRN IL MOVES THRU LATE MORNING/ERY AFT WHICH SHOULD BRING HGR DWPNTS IN LOW 70S INTO CWA. DIURNAL MIXING TO 750-800 MB WOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S MOST AREAS WEST AND CENTRAL. T/TD OF 98/71 WOULD PRODUCE HEAT INDEX OF 107 WHICH WOULD NOT BE THAT MUCH OF A STRETCH GIVEN SIMILAR TEMP/DEWPOINT CONDS SOUTH OF WMFNT IN IA. FAR ERN CWA WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH SWLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI BUT STILL WOULD EXPECT INLAND HEAT INDEX TO APPROACH 100F AT SOME LOCATIONS. MID LVL CAP AND DRYING LOOKS TO HOLD ACROSS FA PER ETA FCST SNDGS SO WILL TAKE OUT MENTION OF LATE AFT SHRA. CIRRUS CLOUD COVER MOVG OVER WRN ZONES LATE WITH CONVECTION ALG INCOMING CDFNT MAY TEMPER HEATING SOMEWHAT BUT DON'T THINK IT WILL BE THAT MUCH OF A SAVING GRACE. .SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WKNG CDFNT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS FA. CDFNT TENDS TO WASH OUT AS IT MOVES INTO ERN CWA WITH VORT MAX BEING PUSHED WELL NORTH INTO ONTARIO DUE TO STRENGTH OF UPR RDG. WITH BETTER DYNAMICS WELL TO NORTH...TSRA FORMING ALG FRONT WILL BE SCT AT BEST. BUT GIVEN SOME LLVL CONV INDICATED BY MODELS AND GOOD ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER ETA MODEL SNDGS WITH K INDEX OF RISING TO 35 AND SI'S AROUND -4C WILL KEEP IN LOW CHC POP FOR TSRA. CDFNT LINGERING OVER SRN AND ERN ZONES MONDAY MORNING WILL ALSO WARRANT CHC POP FOR THESE ZONES FOR MON WHILE INCRG DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WL KEEP ZONES TO WEST DRY. .MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...MORE SUBSTANTIAL CDFNT PUSHES THRU MON NIGHT AS 110+ KT 3H JET PLOWS INTO UPR RDG. GOOD UPR DIV NOTED ON AVN MODEL IN RRQ OF JET MAX MOVG THRU WRN ONTARIO. WITH GOOD SPEED SHEAR AND VEERING PROFILE NOTED ON FCST SNDGS ALG WITH SI'S TO -4C THREAT OF SVR STORMS WARRANTED ON SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK. GIVEN BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THIS CDFNT BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS FA MON NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POP TUE MORNING FOR EAST AND SCNTRL. .EXTENDED...BEHIND CDNFT LOOK FOR DRIER CONDITIONS TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WARMING TREND FOR FRI AND SAT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. LEFT ZONES DRY WED INTO SAT AS IT LOOKS RDG HGTS REALLY AMPLIFY AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND PER OPERATIONAL MRF AND UKMET. AFTER SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR WED AND THU...850 TEMPS RISE AGAIN TO NR 20C PER MRF BY SAT SO SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT WEEKEND. COORD WITH APX AND GRB...THANKS. .MQT...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH SUNDAY MIZ001>007-009>014. VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 425 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2002 HEAT AT FOREFRONT OF CRNT FCST CYCLE. HIGHLIGHT OF THIS DAY HAS BEEN FIRST 100 DEGREE READING AT KFSD SINCE 1995. WOW. SOMEWHAT SCARY THINKING THAT MONDAY IS ACTUALLY EVEN A TOUCH WARMER IN MDLS LOWER LVLS THAN TODAY. STG UPPR SYSTEM SLIDING ACRS MT IS CRASHING IMPRESSIVE UPR LVL RIDGE OVR NRN PLAINS. FLOW DROPS OFF APPRECIABLY TO S ACRS SD BASED ON RAOBS...PROFILERS...AND AGREEABLE RUC GUIDANCE. INCRSG LOW LVL FLOW INTO CWA...NICE MSTR FEED CONTINUES E...BUT HOPELESSLY CAPPED...AND FOR USE IN NRN MN AND WI. DETERMINING MINIMAL THREAT OF PRECIP IS GREATEST CONCERN. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TONIGHT AS MAIN DYNAMICS N THRU ND...AND WE SIT IN WARM AIR ALFT. LLJ DOES STRENGTHEN AS SYSTEM MOVES IN... SO WL LIKELY SEE MIXING WNDS DROP A BIT THIS EVENING...THEN RECOUPLE LTR TONIGHT...ESPLY BUFF RIDGE. PRECIP WISE...BEST THIS WAVE CAN LIKELY DO IS TO SPREAD LOW THREAT OF TSRA INTO NWRN PARTS OF REGION LATE TNGT AND EARLY TUE. FAIRLY COMPACT PV ADVECTIVE FRONT...BUT SO WARM ALFT. LOW LVL BNDRY CONTINUES ACRS CWA ON SUNDAY...REACHING KFSD AREA EARLY AFTN...AND SLOWING AS DOES. ENERGY FM FIRST WAVE ORPHANS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH UPR Q VECTOR SUPPORT LOSING DRIVE IN WAIT FOR NEXT MINOR WAVE...AND FRONT WKNS AND STALLS PROBABLY WITHIN SRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. NICE WAY TO POOL LOW LVL MSTR WHEN COUPLED WITH TOASTY TMPS ALFT. HUMID DEFINITELY IN STORE FOR MONDAY AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM. IRONICALLY...BEST THREAT OF TSRA MAY ACTUALLY COME IN A DIURNALLY UNFAVORED TIME...LATER MORNING ON MONDAY AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABV CAP IS FED BY CONVERGENT MID LVL FLOW...AND GUD LIFT IN LAST BURST OF WAA. BEHIND THIS AREA AS LIFTS N OF CWA MIDDAY... WL WM TMPS CONSIDERABLY FOR MONDAY...BUT DID NOT DO SO TO FULL POTENTIAL...WHICH WOULD BE ABOUT 3-5F WARMER THAN TODAY. FAIRLY DECENT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ON MONDAY LT AFTN AND EVENING AS MAIN CDFNT AGAIN MAKES MOVE INTO CWA. MORE WDSPRD ACTION WL LIKELY REMAIN TO N AND ESPLY NE OF CWA IN WMFRONTAL TYPE ZONE. NO DEEP DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT LOW LVL FRONTAL ZONE...SO FIND IT HARD WITH 14-15C TMPS ALFT TO MENTION ANYTHING PAST 30 POP...IF EVEN THAT. WL LEAVE THESE POPS IN TO COVER POTENTIAL FOR HEATING OUT TOWARD MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT...FRONT WL AGAIN SLOW AND STALL...BUT S OF CWA THIS TIME. WL KEEP LOW POPS ACRS S...AS RETURN FLOW IS QUICK TO RETURN ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST A HINT OF MID LVL COOLING FM STG WAVE DROPPING TOWARD NRN GRTLKS. EXTENDED...VARIOUS 5 DAY MEANS SHOWING TREND TO DISCONTINUOUS RETROGRESSION OF LARGE SCALE RIDGE TOWARD WRN US. HOWEVER...MRF GOES ABOUT THIS A BIT MORE RAPIDLY AND PROGRESSIVELY IN NRN STREAM THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS ASSUMPTION THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE MOVED S OF CWA BY TUES NOT AS SURE WITH LTST ETA EXTENSION AND MAY KEEP LOW CHC POP TO COVER THREAT OF TSRA WITH THIS FEATURE. SOMEWHAT BETTER INDICATION THAT JUST BEFORE TMPS WARM TOO MUCH ALFT AGAIN WITH RIDGING...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE WL ALLOW A FEW TSRA ACRS MAINLY NRN CWA LTR WED INTO EARLY INDEPENDENCE DAY. DEEPER PAC NW TROUGH DIGGING MIDWEEK LKLY AS SHOWN IN CANADIAN/ECMWF AND SUPPORTED BY TENDENCY FOR MRF TO BECOME THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TOWARD DAY 7. WOULD LIKELY SLOW EFFECTS OF RIDGE CRASHING TROUGH UNTIL VERY END OF FCST RUN AT BEST...SO WL KEEP DRY ONCE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. TMPS REBOUNDING TO WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT TEMPERED BY DEEPER LOW LVL MSTR...ESPLY E. .FSD...NONE sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 215 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2002 MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES BECOMING VERY WARM TO HOT UNTIL TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL BECOME AN ISSUE...BUT SHOULD BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY. ONLY LIMITED LAKE BREEZE RELIEF...VERY CLOSE TO THE LAKE. SHORT TERM... TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEAT INDICES INTO MID 90S SUNDAY...AND MID TO UPPER 90S MONDAY AS DEW POINTS RISE TO NEAR 70. SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP THE HIGHER SEW POINT AIR...SEEN ON SATELLITE WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CU FIELD. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUES TO SHOW SMOKE ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CAUSING HAZY SKIES. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES ...BUT IT IS THINNING AS WINDS UNFAVORABLE FOR ADDED TRANSPORT. LAKE BREEZE CONFINED TO AREAS WITHIN 5 MI OF SHORE...EXCEPT IN THE SHEBOYGAN AREA...BUT SHOULD PUSH INLAND MORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME 1-3 MI VSBYS IN FOG POSSIBLE LATE MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS... ESPECIALLY THE WI RIVER VALLEY...BUT NOT DENSE ENOUGH FOR A MENTION. ETA MODEL SHOWS A RATHER STABLE LAYER FROM 2 TO KM...WITH MIXED UNSTABLE LAYER BELOW. ONLY SCATTERED FLAT CU FORMED DUE TO THE CAP. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES AROUND 4500 J/KG. HOWEVER THEY HAVE A RATHER STRONG CAP AT 3 KM...AND ARE OVER FORECASTING DEW POINTS. ALSO CURRENT RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP IS STRONGER THAN ETA FORECAST. AS SUCH GIVEN WEAK DYNAMICS CAP TOO STRONG FOR ANY DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ALSO UPPER FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY N PLAINS THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTH AS THEY ROL E WITH UPPER JET. MID RANGE SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS CANADA TAKING FLOW ZONAL ACROSS N TIER OF U.S. MONDAY NIGHT. AVN MODEL SHOWS TAIL OF RH AND WEAK FRONT TRYING TO REACH S WI. BEST CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN ONLY AROUND 30 POP WOULD BE TUESDAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIGS TROUGH OVER EAST...WITH UPPER RIDGE MORE ACROSS N PLAINS. AS A RESULT HOT WEATHER SHOULD BUILD MORE OVER THE PLAINS...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES OVER S WI. MKX...NONE. $$ HENTZ wi