####018004747#### FXUS64 KFWD 072340 AAA AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 540 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2009 .AVIATION... /00Z UPDATE/ LOW CIGS PRIMARY CONCERN NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN050 CIGS PERSIST ACROSS ALL OF EAST TEXAS AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER DARK. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR BKN/OVC015 AROUND 6Z TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPO IFR BKN006 CONDS AFTER SUNRISE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS ON SUNDAY WITH APPROACH OF UPPER LOW SO SHOULD KEEP BKN MVFR CIGS IN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TOWARD THE END OF THE 24-HOUR PERIOD SO WILL INCREASE WINDS AT DFW TO 23G33KT IN THE 24-36 HOUR PORTION OF THE TAF. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE BEYOND 6Z MONDAY SO WILL ADDRESS THIS IN THE NEXT SET FOR DFW. 91/DUNN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2009/ AN ACTIVE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AND THREE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND BRING CHANCES OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO NORTH TEXAS. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TOMORROW. SOUTH WINDS WILL DECREASE AT SUNSET TONIGHT...BUT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AND INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WAS ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE 12Z FWD RAOB TODAY...AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL DYNAMIC FORCING ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AN EASTWARD MOVING SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE FROM SEVERE CONVECTION IN WEST TEXAS SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH CURLS OFF IN A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SO WILL THE BEST FORCING. THE CAP WILL HAVE TROUBLE LIFTING COMPLETELY OVER OUR AREA...AND EVEN WHERE IT DOES ERODE...LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY MEDIOCRE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE SQUALL LINE TO LOSE ITS PUNCH AS IT MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES...WITH JUST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING WHEN IT TRAVELS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NW ZONES...BUT LESS THAN 1/4 INCH QPF IS FORECAST IN THE SE ZONES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN CHANCES LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A CAP TO CONTEND WITH AND WILL TRACK MORE WEST-EAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF. 500 MB TEMPS IN THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW ARE PROGGED NEAR -30C AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO UNSEASONABLY HIGH INSTABILITY WITH CAPES WELL OVER 1000 J/KG. 60-70KT BULK SHEAR...AND OVER 400 MS/S2 OF 0-3KM HELICITY WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...EVEN ADVERTISING A LATE AFTERNOON DRY LINE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. STILL A LOT CAN CHANGE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. WILL HIGHLIGHT SEVERE THREAT IN HWO AND INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. TUESDAY EVENING SYSTEM WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN. NICE WX IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AND OMITTED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED NEXT SATURDAY WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND. TR.92 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 58 70 58 73 55 / 0 10 60 50 5 WACO, TX 58 70 60 76 57 / 0 10 50 50 5 PARIS, TX 54 68 57 68 52 / 5 10 50 70 5 DENTON, TX 57 69 57 72 51 / 0 10 70 50 5 MCKINNEY, TX 56 68 59 71 55 / 0 10 60 60 5 DALLAS, TX 58 69 58 73 60 / 0 10 60 60 5 TERRELL, TX 57 69 60 71 57 / 0 10 50 60 5 CORSICANA, TX 56 70 60 72 59 / 0 10 50 60 5 TEMPLE, TX 58 70 59 75 57 / 0 10 50 40 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ091>095- 100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ ####018004353#### FXUS64 KHGX 072340 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 540 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2009 .AVIATION... MODERATE CHANNEL OF SOUTHERLIES RIGHT OFF SFC...AOA 30-35 KTS AT 3K FT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LL JET WILL EVOLVE OUT WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING DESERT SW UPPER TROUGH. THUS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A REPRIEVE FROM THESE AMPED UP SOUTHERLIES. LLWS SHOULDN'T BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE NEAR UNI- DIRECTIONAL NATURE OF WIND...POSSIBLE SPEED SHEAR ISSUES FOR SMALLER GENERAL AVIATION TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS MORE INTERIOR HUBS. NEAR SUNRISE DELTA IN NEAR 10 KT SFC WINDS WILL TRIPLE IN SPEED BY 3K FT ALTITUDE. CLOUD DECK FILLS IN TO MVFR THOUGH MIDNIGHT...BORDERLINE BKN-OVC HIGH END IFR IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MORE CONFIDENT OF A NEAR-1K FT TO 2K FT OVC DECK PER DECENT ONSHORE WINDS ALTHOUGH WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW TERMINALS DEALING WITH 500-900 FT OVC DECKS THROUGH 15Z. MAINLY OVERCAST DECKS LIFT TO HIGH MVFR THROUGH DAY...SIMILAR WIND MAGNITUDES AS TODAY ONCE AFOREMENTIONED ~30 KT WINDS MIX DOWN THROUGH NOON. 31 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2009/ MARINE... STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA IN THE 20 TO 60 NM ZONE FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA BAY. CAUTION (SCEC) IN PLACE FOR THAT ZONE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 9 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE REGIONS LATE SUNDAY. GRADIENT WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY BUT WAVE HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER MUCH DUE TO LONG TRAIN OF HIGHER SWELLS. 38 DISCUSSION... ANOTHER BREEZY AND WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MAX TEMPS WERE ABOUT TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 18 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. THIS UNSEASONABLY WARM TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER TIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SO NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY. AREA REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED THROUGH SUNDAY BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE SOME WEAK STREAMER SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES BUT HAVE BROAD BRUSHED THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL VERY LOW POPS. NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THE NAM IS STRONGER WITH THE DYNAMICS BUT A LITTLER DRIER THAN THE GFS. HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT MOISTURE LEVELS WITH PWS AROUND AN INCH. EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN TAKES THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA FURTHER NORTH WITH EACH RUN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE JUST REMAIN CAPPED WITH WEAK SHOWERS BENEATH THE CAP. BEST DYNAMICS AND BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND WILL PRODUCE STRONGER DYNAMICS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS PROGGED TO BECOME STRONGLY DIVERGENT AROUND WEDNESDAY 06Z. SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL ALSO BE IN A FAVORABLE QUAD OF A 135 KT JET MAX. MOISTURE LEVELS STILL VERY MEAGER AND HAVE TAPERED POPS ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE NORTH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A PACIFIC FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. THURSDAY LOOKS QUIET. MOISTURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL KEEP LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 60 77 63 74 63 / 10 20 40 40 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 60 76 63 74 64 / 10 20 30 30 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 60 71 61 70 62 / 10 20 20 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...41 AVIATION/MARINE...31 ####018004319#### FXUS61 KPBZ 072342 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 642 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT. MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH DRY AND MILD WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WET BUT CONTINUED MILD WEATHER TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 12Z MODELS DID POOR WITH PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...SO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ALSO DEVIATES A BIT FROM MODEL GUIDANCE. MODELS GENERALLY SHOWED TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...SO AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH SHOWER COVERAGE WITH THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR NOW AND ALLOW EVENING SHIFT TO EVALUATE WHETHER THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST IS CORRECT. WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY SUNRISE...FEEL THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE VERY LITTLE TOMORROW AND SHOULD FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. PROJECTED TEMPERATURES KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN AT ALL LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME FLAKES COULD MIX IN NORTH OF I-80. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OUT AND WINDS TO GO NEARLY CALM. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND FROM THE COLD FRONT EARLIER IN THE DAY...MIGHT END UP SEEING SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...APPEARS THAT BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WOULD GENERALLY BE SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN SOME 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS AS THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS APPROACH. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL...WITH LOWS MAINLY AROUND 40 TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH 50S...AND POSSIBLY AROUND 60 SOUTH OF I-70 WEDNESDAY AFTN. WITH REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HYDROLOGICALLY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK WHICH HAS A WATER EQUIVALENT AVERAGING NEAR 3 INCHES ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. WITH THE FORECAST RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE SNOWMELT...STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL BE MONITORED FOR SUBSEQUENT RISES AND ICE MOVEMENTS. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WITH MOST AREAS MVFR TO LOW MVFR LATER TONIGHT. A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN KFKL AND KDUJ. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT AS WINDS AT 1000FT AROUND 50 KTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH RESIDUAL SHWRS THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD...ESPECIALLY WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ ####018010996#### FXUS61 KBUF 072341 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 641 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE A SHARP COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AND BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY ON GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. THE COOL DOWN WONT LAST LONG HOWEVER WITH ANOTHER BIG PUSH OF WARM AIR EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK. THIS WARM UP MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY PRODUCING SOME RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... ISSUED AN EARLY UPDATE TO CUT BACK ON POPS TO CHANCE RANGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NIAGARA FRONTIER. WILL KEEP LKLY POPS LTR THIS EVENING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SLGTLY HIGHER POPS JUSTIFIED ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER WITH WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE A COUPLE OF MID LVL SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL LKS...ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN NY LATER TONIGHT. ALSO RAISED TEMPS A BIT THIS EVENING IN GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE FRONT WILL LIFT THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AND GENERATE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE GENERATED BY A 100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK THAT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL TO ABOUT -5C TOWARD DAYBREAK...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE, AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET. SUNDAY WILL START WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE COLUMN WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO CHANGE ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW BY 16Z. WITH SUBSIDENCE, THERE WON'T BE MUCH MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION...MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT SHORT FETCH...LIMITED LAKE INDUCED THERMODYNAMICS...A CAP BELOW 5K FEET, AND RATHER STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS VERY MINOR. THE CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION ALOFT WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART, WITH A THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN ADDITION TO SNOW. WE HAVE DROPPED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE. MOST LIKELY PLACEMENT FOR THIS WOULD BE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SHORE FROM ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO. IT WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY WITHIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... BY 00Z MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE QUICKLY PULLING OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH DIMINISHING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND -13C AT THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE EVENING MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. GIVEN THE VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE POP SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE DURING THE EVENING FROM ROCHESTER OVER TO OSWEGO. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY AND DISRUPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS... EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING DOWN ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY. MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PARKED OVER THE REGION WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT. 850MB TEMPS APPROACH ZERO BY THE END OF THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN NY WHERE TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR 40F BY LATE AFTERNOON IN MANY LOCATIONS. COLDER AIR WILL BE MORE STUBBORN TO LEAVE THE NORTH COUNTRY AS USUAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY 850MB TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +5C. THE STEADY WAA WILL SUPPORT RISING TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT...THEN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS TUESDAY. SOME OF THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY ECLIPSE 50F AGAIN. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PUSH OF WARM AIR WILL LIFT TOWARDS WESTERN NY BY 12Z TUESDAY...THEN DEVELOP NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LATEST GFS SHOWS A GOOD PUSH OF THETA-E ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE...REACHING WESTERN NY BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF WARM FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN MID TO HIGH RANGE CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. IF FUTURE MODEL ITERATIONS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE A JUMP TO LIKELY POPS MAY BE NECESSARY. AMOUNTS LOOK QUITE LIGHT HOWEVER...SO NO HYDRO CONCERNS INITIALLY WITH THIS FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE SURFACE TEMPS MAY STILL BE JUST BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROCHESTER UP INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE A TOUCH OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOWER GREAT LAKES STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BEHIND THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING UNTIL THE MAIN SYSTEM APPROACHES LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD AND REMOVE THE TOKEN 20 POPS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR PANHANDLE HOOK TYPE STORM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY ACTIVE AND AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE REGIME IN THE PACIFIC. UTILIZING A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANALYSIS...WE CAN USE PV AS AN ATMOSPHERIC TRACER /SINCE PV IS CONSERVED FOR ADIABATIC MOTION/ TO SEE WHERE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR THE POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM IS TODAY. USING THE PRESSURE OF THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE OFF THE LATEST GFS RUN...WE CAN CLEARLY SEE THAT THE OFFENDING SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BEARING SEA...BETWEEN THE TWO MORE OBVIOUS BAROCLINIC FEATURES ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL HALF A WORLD AWAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS IS STILL INHERENTLY LOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ON ALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS ON THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE DETAILS REMAIN CONSISTENT...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE SMALLER SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS AND EXACT TRACK/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...AS TO BE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME RANGE. THE NEW 12Z/07 GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE NEW 12Z/07 ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE SURFACE LOW PASSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THE 12Z/07 GEFS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A RATHER TIGHT CLUSTERING AROUND THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION. THE MORE ROBUST CANADIAN GEM ENSEMBLE SYSTEM SHOWS A MUCH LARGER ENVELOPE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS AND THUS MORE UNCERTAINTY. GIVEN THIS IS STILL DAY 5...WILL CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY LOW DETAIL GRIDS. KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FLANKED BY A PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS ON EITHER SIDE. ASSUMING THE VERIFYING SOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS... A MAJOR PUSH OF WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE 50S. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS DROPPING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CHANGING ANY REMAINING RAIN BACK TO SNOW. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW...OVERALL QPF DOES NOT LOOK TO BE HUGE...BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH SNOWMELT TO RESULT IN HYDRO PROBLEMS. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK ALSO FAVORABLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT. AGAIN...ALL OF THIS IS INHERENTLY UNCERTAIN AT DAY 5 AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUTLINED AS A POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO. FOLLOWING THE POTENTIAL MAJOR SYSTEM...A SEASONABLE LOOKING TROUGH IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS WILL RETURN TEMPS BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS. WILL ALSO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FRIDAY GIVEN THE TROUGH ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. NONE OF THIS APPEARS SIGNIFICANT. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM NORTH OF LAKE HURON TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT AND SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY RAIN DEVELOPING. AS THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RIDES OVER THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK THAT IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR MANY AREAS DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...WHILE VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT MAINLY VFR LEVELS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL IMPACTTHE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE 2 THOUSAND FOOT LEVEL AROUND 60 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...VFR TO MVFR IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING THEN CHANCE SNOW SHWRS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS SE OF LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY...VFR. TUESDAY...MVFR CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING. CHANCE SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A MODERATELY STRONG LOW MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE AS COLD AIR FLOODS BACK INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW WILL HOLD WINDS TO 30 KNOTS IN THE FORECAST AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUN NT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORES AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK NEAR TERM...APB/JJP SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK AVIATION...APB/TMA MARINE...APB/HITCHCOCK ####018009241#### FXUS61 KALY 072342 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 642 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2009 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WITH COLDER AIR MOVING BACK IN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN MILDER TEMPS FINALLY BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS STILL HOVERING IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS NORTH OF ALBANY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST JUST ABOVE FREEZING THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SPOTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING SKIES...CLOUDS ARE MOVING BACK IN AND MOST AREAS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY HIGHER POPS SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING...BUT THINK THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME LIGHT QPF IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP. ELSEWHERE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS...WITH THE HIGHER VALUES NORTHWEST OF ALBANY. WILL MENTION PTYPE AS RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT DUE TO TEMPS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS...WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL START TO DROP TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL ALREADY BE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK...AND WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION BY MID MORNING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AGAIN...A LACK OF MOISTURE PRECLUDES MENTIONING HIGHER POPS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE DECENT MIXING...POSSIBLY UP TO 4000 FEET. WINDS AROUND 925 MB ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 35-45 KT MUCH OF THE DAY FROM 12Z GFS. WILL MENTION 35-45M PH GUSTS FOR NOW. THE NAM IS SHOWING A CORE OF 45+ KT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY LOCALIZED EFFECT LIKELY DUE TO CHANNELING...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BY SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPS FORECAST IS TRICKY FOR SUNDAY...AS TEMPS MAY INITIALLY DROP WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER SOME WARMING DUE TO MIXING COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO SPIKE BACK UP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN. TEMPS COULD REACH 40 FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...BUT GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY WITH EVEN LOWER READINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR A SHORT TIME SUNDAY EVENING...BUT WITH A 300-310 FLOW TRAJECTORY...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL NY. WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS AS INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. EVEN AFTER SUNSET IT WILL STILL BE QUITE BREEZY WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL BE NOT AS PRONOUNCED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARLY MON MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO WANE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE RESIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO MON NIGHT...WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING ON TUE MAY RESULT IN A LIGHT WINTRY MIX. FOR NOW WILL MENTION 20-30 POPS...WITH THE HIGHER VALUES WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. AT THIS TIME MODEL QPF IS VERY LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... WITH THE APPROACH OF A SFC WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH TEMPS ALOFT WARMING TO 0 TO +5 DEGREES C AT 850 HPA...AND SFC/BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING...SOME -FZRA WILL BE POSSIBLE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF IS ONLY SHOWING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...AND PRECIP LOOKS SPOTTY AT BEST...SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST MEMBERS OF THE GEFS...LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH THIS TRACK...PLENTY OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL SOAR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S FOR WED...AND TEMPS MAY NOT EVEN DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA ON WED NIGHT /EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN DACKS/. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STORM/S COLD FRONT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS/WESTERN DACKS. THE TIMING OF PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN...AS THIS COULD OCCUR ANYTIME FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. ALSO...THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM...AS IT WEAKENS THE PRIMARY LOW AND DEVELOPS AN ADDITIONAL LOW OFF THE JERSEY SHORE ON THURSDAY. IT THEN SLOWLY MOVES THIS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA EASTWARD. THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION WOULD LINGER PRECIP IN OUR AREA FROM THURSDAY RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF WOULD IMPLY COLDER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM AS THE SECONDARY LOW TAKES OVER...WHICH COULD PRESENT SOME MORE P-TYPE ISSUES FOR THE REGION FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK. HAVE INCLUDED CHC/SLGT CHC POPS FOR -RA/-SN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS ON HOW THIS PRECIP AND WARMUP WILL AFFECT THE RIVERS OF THE HSA. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A VFR CEILING HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...AND PATCHY SPRINKLES ARE NOTED ON RADAR UPSTREAM IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT CONTINUE AT GFL AND POU...BUT CHANNELING WINDS UP THE HUDSON VALLEY ARE AIDING IN SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT ALB...BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KT. THESE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BUT WEAKEN GRADUALLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND APPROACH CALM AT POU AND GFL...BUT NOT QUITE CALM. INCREASING DEW POINTS AND SNOW PACK WILL AID IN SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 05Z...AND SOME MVFR FOG IS ACKNOWLEDGED AT GFL AND POU THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY STEADY ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE FOG POTENTIAL AT ALB. WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE RELATIVELY STRONG AND WIND SHEAR IS INDICATED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AROUND 11Z-13Z AT GFL...ALB AND POU. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF GFL THROUGH ABOUT 13Z AS WELL. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES AFTER 11Z-13Z...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT 10 TO 20 KT AT GFL AND POU...AND 15 TO 25 KT AT ALB...CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...VFR. CHC ISOLD -SHPL/-SHSN. WINDY. SUN NIGHT...VFR. WIND. MON...VFR. NO SIG WX. TUE-THU...MVFR. CIG. CHC IFR IN -RA OR MIXED PCPN. && .HYDROLOGY... NO MAJOR HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK /ESFALY/#3 FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WAS ISSUED FRIDAY. THE CURRENT WARMUP WILL BE BRIEF...LASTING ONLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING SUN AFTERNOON...AND WELL BELOW FREEZING SUN NT. THUS...GIVEN THE BRIEF DURATION OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS...AND LITTLE IF ANY QPF...NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO CURRENT ICE FILLED RIVERS. ANOTHER WARMUP IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GIVEN THE COLD...DENSE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...SOME ADDITIONAL RIPENING OF THE SNOWPACK IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY OF THIS WARMUP...AS WELL AS THE AMOUNT OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. SHOULD THIS WARMUP...AND/OR SIGNIFICANT QPF OCCUR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THEN ICE JAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...NAS