AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 304 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2005 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY) ...POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY RARE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE EVENT TONIGHT... CURRENTLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY MOST AREAS...THOUGH WITH WEAK PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BEGINNING TO SHOW UP AT 20Z...SUSPECT DEWPOINTS HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THE REST OF THE DAY. STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY TOO FAR WEST TO HELP MUCH WITH TSRA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A FEW TCU HAVE FINALLY FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL MTS AND ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRES. TONIGHT...ETA AND RUC SUGGEST ELY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH AIR MASS OVER THE ERN MTS AND PLAINS BECOMING FAIRLY UNSTABLE BY 06Z WITH CAPES NR 1000 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF I-25. NICE BULLSEYE OF UPWARD MOTION OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS BY 06Z AS SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE AREA. SUSPECT -TSRA WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MIGHT EVEN BE SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL OVER THE PLAINS IF MODEL CAPES ARE IN THE BALL PARK. ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL HEAVY RAIN GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE PROGGED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE THINGS IN HAND AND NEED FEW CHANGES. SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY AFTERNOON... WITH PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH OVER COLORADO DURING THE DAY. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ON THE PLAINS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE NOCTURNAL MCS ENDS UP...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT FOR ONE MORE ROUND OF CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. STILL SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR ERN ZONES...WHERE ETA SHOWS DRYLINE SETTING UP NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER BY AFTERNOON. SHADED SUN MAX TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...WITH REMAINING GRIDS LOOKING A-OK. --ETP .LONG TERM... (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) SUN NIGHT-MON...MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT SLOWLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...AS BROAD UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED 90KT JET MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BRISK WESTERLY FLOW PUSHES DRYLINE OUT ACROSS THE KANSAS BORDER SUN EVENING AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WILL KEEP CURRENT CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCES POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS. WITH SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND SYSTEM AND GOOD OROGRAPHIC FLOWS...WILL KEEP CURRENT ISOLATED POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AS WELL. WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND PASSING SYSTEM ALONG WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE ON MON...THOUGH WILL SEE BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MIX DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. TUE-THU...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE...AS EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW COAST. WARM AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING RIDGE (+10C TO +16C AT H7) WILL ALLOW FOR AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SAVE TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...AS SECONDARY BACKDOOR COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MODELS INDICATING VARIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRI-SAT...WARM SW FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AS PAC NW SYSTEM RIDES THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MODELS KEEPING SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH VARYING DEGREES OF MOISTURE IN WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...THOUGH WILL KEEP CURRENT WARM AND DRY FORECAST IN TACT ATTM. -MW && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 437 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005 .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ARLENE HAS MADE LANDFALL AT THE BORDER OF THE FL/AL COAST. GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE IN ARLENE'S WAKE HAS LED TO GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME OF THESE HAVE PRODUCED SOME HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE. SAT SHOWS SOME BREAKS TRYING TO WORK IN...WITH SOME LATE DAY RECOVERY TO THE TEMPS...WHICH HAD BEEN GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S THROUGH NOON TODAY. LATEST MOSAIC SHOWS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP SHIELD AS SOME DOWNSLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM ENSUES THIS EVENING. GFS CONTINUES TO HANDLE THE SYSTEM THE BEST...ALTHOUGH THE NAM HAS COME AROUND CLOSER IN LATEST RUNS. HAVE BUMPED POPS TOWARDS DAWN TOMORROW INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO THE SE COAST. HAVE A GOOD GRADIENT...WITH THE NORTHEAST CWA SEEING THE LEAST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SE TOMORROW. HAVE CAT POPS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR...WHERE MOISTURE STREAM WILL REMAIN MOST UNFETTERED. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE STUCK WITH THE COOLER GFS MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TOMORROW AT JKL...LOZ...AND SME...WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDS AND MORE CONSISTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AS THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE PULL OUT TOMORROW NIGHT. MODELS THEN SHOW AN AREA OF BAROCLINICITY WHICH NUDGES TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ONCE AGAIN. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN SOUPY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS A S/W APPROACHES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET...WITH POSSIBLY SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE MOST ESTABLISHED OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN...PRETTY ATYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GFS MEAN CONTINUES TO ONLY SHOW MORE OF A GENERAL TROUGH IN THE EAST...BUT KEEPS THE PARENT CUTOFF LOW WELL TO THE NORTH. DESPITE THIS CURRENT DISAGREEMENT...LOOKING AT THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE MEAN...A GENERAL TREND TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED OPERATIONAL GFS IS TAKING PLACE. PER HPC AND AFOREMENTIONED REASONING...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED A BIT TO REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...WHILE KEEPING SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY AS THE QUESTION OF HOW LONG THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS IN PLACE BECOMES AN ISSUE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 1115 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005 14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BERMUDA HIGH HOLDING FIRM ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE STRONG TROPICAL STORM ARLENE IS TRUCKING TOWARD A LANDFALL THIS EVENING NEAR MOBILE. AMPLE HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS BROAD TROPICAL SYSTEM QUICKLY SWEPT NORTH AROUND THE SFC HIGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS RESULTING IN A DAMP MORNING FOR AT LEAST THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AND HAS PUT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN JEOPARDY. EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT DOWN SLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE APPEARS TO BE WORKING TO SUPPRESS THE SHOWERS IN FAR EAST KENTUCKY. EXPECT THIS TO WORK WEST AND NORTH AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...PROVIDING SOME LIFT TO OUR TEMPS. STABLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN THE RULE THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT THE DRYING WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURE TO CLIMB TOWARD 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON PROBABLY KICKING OFF MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER. PLAN ON REVISION TO THE TEMP...POP...SKY AND WEATHER GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL FINE RETOOL THE MAX TEMPS WITH A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST GRADIENT IN MIND FOR THE AFTERNOON AND LIKEWISE HAVE A SIMILAR SET UP FOR POPS. AN UPDATED SET OF GRIDS AND TEXT ZONE FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. 504 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005 AN INTERESTING BUT TOUGH FORECAST. AS IS TYPICAL...MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH TS ARLENE. NAM CONTINUES TO TAKE ARLENE MUCH FURTHER WEST...UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS TRENDING FURTHER EAST WITH THE SYSTEM. THE GFS IS TRENDING A TAD FURTHER WEST...BUT STILL BRINGS ARLENE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY. FOR THE SHORT TERM...EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MODEL OF CHOICE IS THE GFS AS IT HANDLES TROPICAL SYSTEMS MUCH BETTER THAN THE NAM. CONSEQUENTLY...FOLLOWED EARLIER SHIFTS LEAD AND USED THE GFS FOR THE CURRENT FCST PKG. LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AHEAD OF ARLENE AND INTO CNTRL KY. SATELLITE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MOVING NORTHWARD AS WELL. BUT OBS INDICATE MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER IS MID TO HIGH LEVEL AC AND CI. LOOKING AT THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS...CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY GREATER IN THE WEST...OR SOUTHWEST THAN IN THE EAST. THE LATEST OBS...SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS TEND TO CONFIRM THIS WILL BE THE CASE. BASED ON MOVEMENT AND GFS PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION... EXPECT HIGHEST POPS TO FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY. WITH THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER POPS IN THE WEST... TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THE WARMER FWC AND MET MOS IN THE EAST. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND MOST IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS WERE MINOR AND FOR CCF PURPOSES. CONTINUED TO STAY WITH COOLER MAV MOS TEMPS FOR SUNDAYS HIGHS. NAM AND FWC ARE MUCH TOO WARM DUE TO THEIR WESTWARD TRACK OF ARLENE. MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR LATEST TRENDS IN TIMING...ETC. HPC TAKES THE BULK OF THE QPF THROUGH CNTRL KY...AND WITH GFS TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH ARLENE DECIDED TO ALLOW THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK ISSUED YESTERDAY TO EXPIRE WITH NO FLOOD WATCH BEING ISSUED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND A SHIFT IN THE TRACK BACK TO THE EAST WOULD PUT EASTERN KY UNDER A HIGHER FLOOD THREAT AGAIN. 1103 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PROBABLY HELPED ALONG BY S/WV WORKING NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE CWA INDICATED BY ETA12 AND RUC...AND FACILITATED GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. LAST OF THE MAJOR ACTIVITY IS FINALLY WORKING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CWA. UPDATED TO INCREASE SKY COVER DUE TO GOOD CIRRUS SHIELD...AND ADD A LITTLE PATCHY FOG. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ GEOGERIAN ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1115 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005 .DISCUSSION... 14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BERMUDA HIGH HOLDING FIRM ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE STRONG TROPICAL STORM ARLENE IS TRUCKING TOWARD A LANDFALL THIS EVENING NEAR MOBILE. AMPLE HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS BROAD TROPICAL SYSTEM QUICKLY SWEPT NORTH AROUND THE SFC HIGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS RESULTING IN A DAMP MORNING FOR AT LEAST THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AND HAS PUT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN JEOPARDY. EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT DOWN SLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE APPEARS TO BE WORKING TO SUPPRESS THE SHOWERS IN FAR EAST KENTUCKY. EXPECT THIS TO WORK WEST AND NORTH AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...PROVIDING SOME LIFT TO OUR TEMPS. STABLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN THE RULE THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT THE DRYING WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURE TO CLIMB TOWARD 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON PROBABLY KICKING OFF MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER. PLAN ON REVISION TO THE TEMP...POP...SKY AND WEATHER GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL FINE RETOOL THE MAX TEMPS WITH A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST GRADIENT IN MIND FOR THE AFTERNOON AND LIKEWISE HAVE A SIMILAR SET UP FOR POPS. AN UPDATED SET OF GRIDS AND TEXT ZONE FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 504 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005 AN INTERESTING BUT TOUGH FORECAST. AS IS TYPICAL...MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH TS ARLENE. NAM CONTINUES TO TAKE ARLENE MUCH FURTHER WEST...UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS TRENDING FURTHER EAST WITH THE SYSTEM. THE GFS IS TRENDING A TAD FURTHER WEST...BUT STILL BRINGS ARLENE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY. FOR THE SHORT TERM...EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MODEL OF CHOICE IS THE GFS AS IT HANDLES TROPICAL SYSTEMS MUCH BETTER THAN THE NAM. CONSEQUENTLY...FOLLOWED EARLIER SHIFTS LEAD AND USED THE GFS FOR THE CURRENT FCST PKG. LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AHEAD OF ARLENE AND INTO CNTRL KY. SATELLITE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MOVING NORTHWARD AS WELL. BUT OBS INDICATE MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER IS MID TO HIGH LEVEL AC AND CI. LOOKING AT THE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS...CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY GREATER IN THE WEST...OR SOUTHWEST THAN IN THE EAST. THE LATEST OBS...SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS TEND TO CONFIRM THIS WILL BE THE CASE. BASED ON MOVEMENT AND GFS PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION... EXPECT HIGHEST POPS TO FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY. WITH THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER POPS IN THE WEST... TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THE WARMER FWC AND MET MOS IN THE EAST. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND MOST IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS WERE MINOR AND FOR CCF PURPOSES. CONTINUED TO STAY WITH COOLER MAV MOS TEMPS FOR SUNDAYS HIGHS. NAM AND FWC ARE MUCH TOO WARM DUE TO THEIR WESTWARD TRACK OF ARLENE. MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR LATEST TRENDS IN TIMING...ETC. HPC TAKES THE BULK OF THE QPF THROUGH CNTRL KY...AND WITH GFS TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH ARLENE DECIDED TO ALLOW THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK ISSUED YESTERDAY TO EXPIRE WITH NO FLOOD WATCH BEING ISSUED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND A SHIFT IN THE TRACK BACK TO THE EAST WOULD PUT EASTERN KY UNDER A HIGHER FLOOD THREAT AGAIN. 1103 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PROBABLY HELPED ALONG BY S/WV WORKING NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE CWA INDICATED BY ETA12 AND RUC...AND FACILITATED GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. LAST OF THE MAJOR ACTIVITY IS FINALLY WORKING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CWA. UPDATED TO INCREASE SKY COVER DUE TO GOOD CIRRUS SHIELD...AND ADD A LITTLE PATCHY FOG. 520 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ITS HOLD ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE DRAPED AROUND ITS FRINGES. THIS HIGH APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION OVER EAST KENTUCKY TO A MINIMUM...SHOVING YESTERDAY/S CORE OF ACTIVITY WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW STRONGER STORMS LOCATED IN EASTERN TENNESSEE THAT WILL LIKELY ROTATE INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. ON SATELLITE...THE CU HAS BEEN SCATTERED AT BEST THROUGH THE CWA...THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. ARLENE ARE CREEPING TOWARD THE BORDER. WITHOUT MUCH CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION AROUND TODAY TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS ACHIEVED THEIR FULL POTENTIAL REACHING THE UPPER 80S. THE MODELS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH 48 HOURS ACROSS THE EAST AS THEY ALL HOLD ONTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE WHILE SWINGING THEIR POOR REPRESENTATION OF ARLENE NORTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKED THE GFS DEPICTION THROUGH 24 HOURS THE BEST AS IT BRINGS ARLENE ALONG CLOSE TO THE NHC TRACK. GIVEN ITS APPARENT BETTER HANDLE ON ARLENE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND ITS VORTICITY PATTERN THROUGH 24 HOURS. FOLLOWING THAT...THOUGH AM LEFT ADRIFT...AS THE GFS SEEMS TO MOVE THE CORE OF ARLENE NORTH TOO FAST WHILE THE ETA TAKES A TRACK WELL TO THE WEST. EXPECT THE TROPICAL STORM TO WEAKEN AND SPREAD OUT FOLLOWING LANDFALL WITH ITS MOISTURE SLUNG EAST OF NORTH AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH. HAVE TRIED TO FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE...WELL TO THE NORTHWEST...A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ALSO CAUSES MUCH DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE SHORT RANGE MODELS. THE GFS MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WELL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ETA IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OPEN FROM JUST ABOUT THE START AND HINTS AT SLOWING AND CLOSING ONLY LATE IN ITS FORECAST. HERE ALSO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS GIVEN THE SUPPORT OF OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. WHATEVER THE RESULT...THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE A LARGE EFFECT ON THE WEATHER OVER KENTUCKY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE EVENING CONVECTION EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. WITH ANOTHER SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP SPLIT SETTING UP ALONG WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMING TOWARDS DAWN. FOR SATURDAY...AS ARLENE STRENGTHENS AND NEARS THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER...EXPECT SUBSIDENCE OUT AHEAD OF IT TO KEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM IN OUR AREA. ACCORDINGLY...DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THE BAND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE LADEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... SIMILAR TOO BUT LIKELY NOT AS FAST AS THE GFS SOLUTION. AS A RESULT ...EXPECT A QUIET START TO THE NIGHT WITH SHOWERS A GOOD BET BY SUNDAY MORNING. OF COURSE...A SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT TRACK BY ARLENE WOULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR KENTUCKY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN BY MONDAY MORNING HAVE ISSUED AN ESF ADDRESSING THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR THE TIMING AND EFFECTS OF ARLENE/S REMNANTS ON EAST KENTUCKY. IN GENERAL...TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN JUST EAST OF THE PATH OF ARLENE SEEMS REASONABLE. IN THE WAKE OF ARLENE...EXPECT A RETURN OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK. FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SETTLE IN THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT MORE CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THIS...BUT IT SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER OF THE PAST WEEK. MOS TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWING A WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS BETWEEN THE MAV AND THE OTHER GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FOR TONIGHT HAVE GONE MAINLY WITH PERSISTENCE WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARD AND ABOVE THE WARMER MET AND FWC FOR HIGHS SATURDAY...ANTICIPATING SOME SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF ANY TROPICAL BANDS FROM ARLENE. THEN SATURDAY NIGHT... EXPECTING A WETTER...TROPICAL FORECAST TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR INTO THE 60S EVEN IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOKED BEST FROM THE MAV SINCE THE POPS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE WILL BE IMPORTANT AND THE GFS HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM IS PREFERRED. LIKEWISE...DID NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM MAV LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL...MINIMIZED POPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...GOING BELOW MOS CONSENSUS. DID LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD POPS FROM THE MAV FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND IN ACCORDANCE WITH PREFERRING THE GFS SOLUTION. SINCE THE GFS WAS MY MODEL OF CHOICE I COULD NOT USE MY STANDARD POPULATION PROCEDURE FROM THE ETA12. I LOADED IN GFS WINDS FOR THE FIRST 84 HOURS AND OF COURSE HAD TO ADJUST THE SPEEDS DOWN AND ADD MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND. DID ALSO POPULATE DEWPOINTS FROM THE GFS AND THESE CAME IN TOO HIGH AS WELL...SO I USED THE TEMPORAL EDITOR TO ADJUST THEM FOR A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN MADE THEM HIGHER WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE REST OF THE GRIDS LOOKED GREAT...DID HAVE TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL OF ARLENE/S REMNANTS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY WAS DRIVEN BY...AND DEPENDS...ON THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ GREIF ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1050 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005 .DISCUSSION... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CWFA...WHERE INSTABILITY IS MORE LIMITED (MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THEN 250 J/KG). HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND IS RAPIDLY MOVING NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME. SPC MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS SHOW MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME...DIMINISHING TO 250-750 J/KG AS YOU MOVE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UP. A WEAK VORT LOBE EXTENSION OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH MINNESOTA AND INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN PER THE RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES. THIS NEW CONVECTION IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS VORT LOBE IN AN AREA OF DPVA AND ASSOCIATED QG FORCING. A 30-40KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET FEATURE IS ALSO HELPING TO SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION...WITH AN AREA OF REDUCED 850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E VALUES APPARENT ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE VORT LOBE. WOULD EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO PERSIST AS IT IS CARRIED NORTH INTO THE UP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH CAPE VALUES LOWER THAN THEY WERE PREVIOUSLY...AND WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL COOLING...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET SEVERE WINDS OR HAIL. HOWEVER...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND DECENT LIGHTNING COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ANY ELEVATED CELLS WHICH ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP MODERATE ROTATION DUE TO THE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SEVERE REPORT OVERNIGHT. TRH && .PREV DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND LARGE E CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH H5 HEIGHTS AROUND 592DAM CENTERED OFF THE NC/SC COAST. IN BETWEEN...POCKETS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE RIDING NNE OVR THE CNTRL CONUS ALONG N-S ORIENTED FRONT AND THIS IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED CONVECTION FM OK INTO SD. POOL OF HIGHER MOISTURE IS STATIONED OVR UPR LAKES WITH PWATS FM MPX TO APX RUNNING 175-200 PCT OF NORMAL. TS ARLENE HAS NEALRY MADE LANDFALL OVR SCNTRL AL/FL PANHANDLE...WITH RADAR SHOWING ASSOCIATED PCPN ALREADY SURGING INTO MIDDLE TN RIVER VALLEY THANKS TO SSE WINDS AT H85 OF 40-50KT. AXIS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTED ACROSS AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...BUT THESE HAVE SINCE SHIFTED INTO LK SUPERIOR. A FEW SHOWERS OVR CWA ATTM BUT MAINLY SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS YIELDING CALM CONDITIONS PRESENTLY. E UPR MI IS SEEING LIONS SHARE OF SHRA/TS DUE TO LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVR N LWR MI. EXPECT THE QUIET WX TO ONLY HOLD FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS THOUGH AS TS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVR SW WI IN AREA WHERE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED TODAY AND WHERE LARGE SCALE LIFT FM PLAINS SHORTWAVE IS TEAMING TOGETHER. SPC WATCH BOX FOR ACTIVITY WITHIN A FEW COUNTIES TO SW OF IWD AND THINK AS SHORTWAVE SHIFTS N THIS EVENING THE FAR W UPR PENINSULA IS WHERE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TS WILL OCCUR. WARM FRONT OVR WCNTRL WI WILL TRY TO MAKE RUN INTO FAR N WI/SW UPR MI EARLY THIS EVENING. GOES DERIVED CAPE/CIN PRODUCTS INDICATES RIBBON OF 1000-1500J/KG CAPES (LESS THAN 20J/KG CIN) AHEAD OF TS ACROSS NW WI INTO FAR SW UPR MI. ENOUGH CAPE FM 0-3KM TO JUSTIFY LARGE HAIL THREAT ALTHOUGH THE NEAR 11000FT HEIGHT OF WB IS QUITE HIGH. ANY LINE SEGMENT COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED SVR WINDS AS DELTA THETA-E VALUES NEAR 30C THIS EVENING. K-INDEX VALUES BTWN 30-35 ALSO SUPPORT GOING HEAVY RAIN THREAT. GRIDS SHOW LIKELY POPS OVR FAR W THEN TAPERING TO CHANCE INTO CNTRL/E ZONES. ACTUALLY LIKE 00Z WRF SOLN WITH LINE OF CONVECTION COMING INTO SW ZONES THEN DIMINISHING QUICKLY AWAY FM BETTER INSTABILITY. DECREASING TREND OVERNIGHT LOOKS GOOD AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LIFTS N OF LK SUPERIOR...LEAVING ONLY SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO BE ACTED UPON BY ANY RENEGADE SMALL WAVES. LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL 13Z ON SUN. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD MUCH DRIER MID LEVELS LATER SUN WITH NO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE AND EVEN SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROGGED. SOME LL CONVERGENCE POSSIBLE OVR FAR SE CWA. OTHERWISE...EVEN THOUGH AFTN SBCAPES WILL LIKELY RISE WELL ABOVE 1000J/KG THINK THERE IS TOO MUCH NEG DYNAMICS AND DRY MID LEVEL AIR TO JUSTIFY ANY POPS AWAY FM THAT AREA. BLYR WINDS FM SW AT 15-25KT AND H85 TEMPS IN 15-17C RANGE SHOULD ENSURE A VERY WARM DAY WITH MAX TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS. MON FCST TIED TO WESTWARD EXTENT OF REMNANTS OF TS ARLENE. NAM STILL FARTHER W THAN GFS WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE REMNANTS AND THEN MERGES THIS ENERGY WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVR NCNTRL CONUS. BELIEVE THAT NAM SOLN IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE AND LIKE THE IDEA OF GFS SHOWING MORE SPLIT BTWN THE TWO SOURCES OF MOISTURE/LIFT. STILL... EVEN GFS DOES BRING PCPN INTO MOST OF CWA THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SO...EVEN THOUGH THINK NAM SOLN IS TOO BOISTEROUS WITH QPF WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED POPS INTO ALL CWA FOR THIS PERIOD...JUST SMALL CHANCE THOUGH. EXTENDED (TUE THROUGH SAT)...AN OMEGA BLOCK APPEARS IN THE OFFING BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. DEPENDING WHERE THE PRIMARY RIDGE AXIS SETS UP IN THIS PATTERN UPR LAKES COULD END UP WITH DRY WX FOR A LONG STRETCH STARTING LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOW WE GET TO THE OMEGA BLOCK STILL UP FOR DEBATE. ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE UPR LOW THAT SHIFTS ACROSS PLAINS WEAKENS AND IS ABSOLVED BY ENERGY DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST CANADA. GFS/UKMET SUGGESTS THAT PLAINS SYSTEM IS WHAT HELPS TO DEVELOP THE BLOCK. WV LOOP AND RAOBS INDICATE THAT SYSTEM IS AGGRESSIVELY DIGGING INTO PAC NW ATTM. CONSIDERING THIS AND STRENGTH OF UPSTREAM BLOCK OVR SE CONUS...THINK RESULTING UPR LOW WILL BE SLUGGISH TO MOVE ACROSS CONUS THIS WEEK. THEREFORE...PREFER SLOWER SOLNS OF ECMWF/CANADIAN INITIALLY. EVENTUALLY RIDGE BEGINS TO REORIENT E TO W ALONG GULF COAST...SO UPR LOW WILL PROBABLY START TO SHIFT EAST QUICKER THAN ECMWF SHOWS...PER UKMET/CANADIAN. IN ALL THIS...THINK 00Z/06Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS TOO QUICK AND TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM. AN EXAMPLE OF THIS IS BY 00Z WED WHEN GFS HAS UPR LOW CENTER OVR E CNTRL WI WHILE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN ARE CLUSTERED OVR N IA. BANKING ON THE FARTHER S SOLN...EXPECT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVR S TIER OF ZONES TUE-WED. AFTER THAT...RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. ECMWF IS SLOWER BUT STILL FARTHER S AND EVEN THE GFS IS DRY FOR THU...SO REMOVED PCPN. DRY ON OUT INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY BEYOND. COORD WITH GRB. JLA && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JL mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1220 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005 .UPDATE... ANOTHER WARM AND UNSTABLE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MSAS SHOWS THAT LIFTED INDEX VALUES HAVE LOWERED TO -6 DEG C OR SO AND THE CAP IS WEAK. FREEZING LEVELS ARE HIGH...UP AROUND 14000 FT. THE WIND FIELD IS WEAKLY SHEARED. VISIBLE IMAGERY AT 16Z SHOWS A CU FIELD ACROSS INLAND ZONES WITH THE GREATEST GROWTH UP NORTH NEAR CAD WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THUS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS. AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE DEEP INSTABILITY. THE RUC MODEL SHOWS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF SOUTHER INDIANA TO LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH MAY LIMIT MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ MJS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1005 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005 .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... 12Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT ERN RDG/WRN TROF PATTERN ACRS NAMERICA. WEAK SHRTWV NOTED OVER WI. INTERACTION OF THIS SHRTWV WITH HINT OF WARM FNT ACRS CNTRL WI AND HI PWAT OF 1.70 INCHES ON THE 12Z GRB SDNG (12Z KINX 38) CAUSING A BAND OF SCT SHRA IN NCNTRL WI THAT IS DRIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE U.P. THEN AN AREA WHERE SKIES ARE CLR-PCLDY OVER SW WI IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV RDG OVER ERN IA. 12Z MPX SDNG SHOWS SUBSIDENCE INVRNS AT H775 AND H55 ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHRTWV RDG. CONVECTIVE TEMP FOR THIS SDNG WITH SFC TD OF 63 IS 80...WHICH WOULD YIELD CAPE OF 1000 J/KG. FRZG LVL QUITE HI NR 13.0K FT (WBZ 12.5K)...AND WINDS THRU H6 AOB 20KT. FOR A SFC TD OF 64...THE CONVECTIVE TEMP ON THE 12Z GRB SDNG IS 88. REACHING THIS TEMP WOULD REALIZE CAPE OF 1100 J/KG. 10Z TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW INDICATES A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE TEMP ARND 85 FOR SFC DWPT 64. FRZG LVL IS 13.9K FT (WBZ 12.5K). A MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS OVER NEBRASKA AND LIFTING NNEWD. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY/THIS EVNG ARE COVG/SEVERITY OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION. LATEST RUC/NAM BOTH SHOW SHRTWV NOW OVER WI LIFTING THRU THE FA BY MID AFTN...WITH A PD OF DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC. THEN SHRTWV RDGING/DNVA/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC FCST TO DOMINATE LATER THIS AFTN. EXPECT BAND OF CLD/SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TO MOVE ACRS THE FA THRU EARLY AFTN BEFORE MAX HTG/WDSPRD DESTABILIZATION...SO SEE LTL CHC FOR SVR TSRA WITH HI FRZG LVL DESPITE FCST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR UP TO 40KT OVER THE W (ONLY ARND 20KT OVER THE E). THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SOME HVY DOWNPOURS...BUT THE SHRTWV/BAND OF CLD APPEARS PROGRESSIVE ENUF TO MINIMIZE ANY POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HVY RA. ALTHOUGH ISOLD-SCT TSRA MAY POP UP LATER IN THE AFTN AFT DEPARTURE OF CLD ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV AND LLVLS WARM TOWARD CONVECTIVE TEMPS OBSVD UPSTREAM...EXPECTED SHRTWV RDGING/DNVA SHOULD MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE COVG/INTENSITY. HVY RA SHOULD REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH CELLS FRMG ON LK BREEZE BNDRYS ESPECIALLY OVER THE W FARTHER AWAY FM UPR RDG. SHRTWV NOW IN NEBRASKA FCST TO REACH MN BY 00Z SUN...BUT BETTER DPVA/DEEP QVECTOR CNVGC/SHARPER LLJ LOOKS DESTINED TO IMPACT ONLY THE WRN ZNS. GOING LIKELY POPS THERE THIS EVNG STILL LOOK ON TRACK. KC .LONG TERM... EXPECT CONVECTION TO WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS N INTO ONTARIO AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET PULLS AWAY. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ONCE THE RAIN ENDS. SHOULD BE A WARM NIGHT GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET WITH MINS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. PCPN FCST FOR SUN IS A TOUGH CALL. BEHIND SHORTWAVE...HEIGHTS AND MIDLEVEL TEMPS RISE ACROSS UPPER MI. NAM AND ESPECIALLY GFS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT MIDLEVEL DRYING WILL OCCUR AT LEAST OVER WRN UPPER MI. IN FACT...GFS KINDEX FALLS BLO 10 OVER THE W. SINCE THIS IS SIMILAR TO WHAT PREVIOUS RUNS WERE INDICATING...FEEL MOST CONFIDENT ABOUT GOING WITH A DRY DAY OVER THE W. ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA...MODIFIED GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS FOR SFC T/TD OF 80/65F YIELD SBCAPE OF 200-500J/KG. HOWEVER...RISING HEIGHTS/MIDLEVEL WARMING AND DRYING MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT SHRA/TSRA. INTERESTING TO SEE MOS POPS ARE QUITE LOW AT 30 OR LESS AND NAM DOESN'T GENERATE ANY PCPN SUN. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHC OVER ABOUT THE E HALF OF FCST AREA ON SUN UNTIL PICTURE IS MORE CERTAIN. EXPECT UPPER RIDGING TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER SUN NIGHT. ON MON... BELIEVE IT OR NOT...NAM BRINGS REMNANTS OF ARLENE ALL THE WAY TO UPPER MI WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A GOOD SOAKING MON AFTN/EVENING. UKMET/CANADIAN/GFS KEEP REMNANTS WELL SE OF HERE...AND WILL FOLLOW THAT CONSENSUS SOLUTION. TO THE W...CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW WILL BE HEADING OUT INTO CNTRL PLAINS. HAVE A FEELING PCPN WILL BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP EWD TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES...AND TYPICALLY...ITS BEST TO FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH CLOSED SYSTEMS. CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH SHOW LINGERING MIDLEVEL AND SFC RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON MON ARE PROBABLY THE BEST BET. WILL THUS DROP POPS ON MON. PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY BE ON TAP FOR TUE-WED DEPENDING ON A VERY UNCERTAIN SPEED/TRACK OF THE MIDLEVEL LOW. IT'S NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY TRACK FAR ENOUGH S THAT PCPN DOES NOT REACH FCST AREA. ROLFSON && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 245 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 .DISCUSSION...SEVERE WEATHER IS MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT LATEST RUC40 INDICATES A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST RUC FORECASTS LI OF -7...WITH H85 THETA-E OVER 340K. THE 0-1KM VGP ALSO INDICATES DECENT POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING SUPERCELLS. THE RESULT SHOULD BE SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY...LEAVING JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FOR SUNDAY. OVERALL...IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY...BUT WITH MUGGY AIR AND BOUNDARIES STILL PRESENT - WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM. THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND CLOSES OFF INTO MIDWEEK. HAVE WENT WITH MID RANGE POPS...BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH LATER FORECASTS. OTHER THAN THAT...IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY AFTER THE CLOSED LOW MOVES OUT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY THINGS OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. .AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH BR EXPECTED AROUND 06Z. .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. $$ DAP/GSF mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 952 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 .DISCUSSION... EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR ENHANCED LIFT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY. WITH SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND RESULTANT LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY. SCHMIT && .PREV DISCUSSION... 736 PM CDT SAT... CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING IN BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS AREA CORRELATES WELL WITH RUC SURFACE BASED CAPE ANALYSIS OF 2500+ J/KG AND BULLSEYE OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY. ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. WILL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION EVOLVE INTO A COMPLEX TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFERS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO THIS EVENING...BUT ANTICIPATE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING (WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY THE 18Z NAM). HAVE LOWERED POPS TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. SCHMIT 302 PM CDT SAT... DECAYING MCS EXITED THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER ITS PASSAGE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS STABILIZED. SEEING A LITTLE CU DEVELOPMENT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS IN THE AREA IS A LITTLE TRICKY TO PINPOINT. WE EXPECT TO SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OUT CLOSER TO THE DRY LINE...THERE IS ALSO A BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. STORMS THAT FORM OUT WEST HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RIDE INTO EASTERN KS AND WRN MO VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE SCATTERED ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO GOOD INSTABILITY...AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. TRIED TO BE MORE SPECIFIC ON POPS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT HAVE HAD TO BROADBRUSH AFTER THAT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING IN UNDER THE CUTOFF LOW...BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS..LOOKS PRIMED TO SPARK OFF ANOTHER MCS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD PLACE ITS ARRIVAL TIME IN OUR CWA SUNDAY EVENING...LINGERING THOUGH MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE WEATHER OF LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING MCS'S I HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A SLOW SOLUTION FOR MOVING A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. TIMING DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO CONVERGE...THOUGH THE ECMWF (AND NOW THE CANADIAN) ARE RUNNING THE SLOWEST...AND THE GFS/NAM/UKMET KEEP THE LOW SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE. 590DM RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST SHOULD HELP IMPEDE THE PROGRESS OF THE CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH PLAINS. HOWEVER...WITH ARLENE WORKING ITS WAY UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THIS COULD KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THOUGH THE PLAINS. THEREFORE I HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS WHICH WOULD INDICATE THAT THE LOW...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IT WILL DRAG THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST WITHIN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN TO AROUND NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LVQ/RC 320 AM CDT SAT... MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES. CURRENT STORMS COMING INTO FORECAST AREA ARE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...NAM ALSO SHOWING MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS CURRENTLY IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...MOVING INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY MIDDAY TODAY. THUS EXPECT AREAS TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY BEFORE THIS WAVE MOVES PAST. FINALLY SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS EVENING AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DEEPENS IN THE FOUR CORNER AREAS TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPMENT INTO KANSAS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH MAY SET STORMS OFF DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT MAIN SHOW SHOULD NOT COME UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WITH MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE. EXPECT THIS WAVE TO BE CLEARING FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO ALL OUR ACTIVE WEATHER. ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT NOT EXPECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO MAJOR FLOODING...SO NO FLOOD WATCH PLANNED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MAY BE A DIFFERENT STORY SO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. TEMPERATURES ABOUT STATUS QUO THROUGH MONDAY...WITH EXPECTED CLOUD DEBRIS AND RAINFALL TO KEEP THEM A BIT IN CHECK. PC && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES 12 PM CDT SUNDAY TO 12 PM CDT MONDAY. KS...FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES 12 PM CDT SUNDAY TO 12 PM CDT MONDAY. $$ mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 736 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 .DISCUSSION... CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING IN BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS AREA CORRELATES WELL WITH RUC SURFACE BASED CAPE ANALYSIS OF 2500+ J/KG AND BULLSEYE OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY. ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. WILL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION EVOLVE INTO A COMPLEX TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFERS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO THIS EVENING...BUT ANTICIPATE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING (WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY THE 18Z NAM). HAVE LOWERED POPS TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. SCHMIT && .PREV DISCUSSION... 302 PM CDT SAT... DECAYING MCS EXITED THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER ITS PASSAGE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS STABILIZED. SEEING A LITTLE CU DEVELOPMENT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS IN THE AREA IS A LITTLE TRICKY TO PINPOINT. WE EXPECT TO SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OUT CLOSER TO THE DRY LINE...THERE IS ALSO A BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. STORMS THAT FORM OUT WEST HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RIDE INTO EASTERN KS AND WRN MO VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE SCATTERED ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO GOOD INSTABILITY...AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. TRIED TO BE MORE SPECIFIC ON POPS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT HAVE HAD TO BROADBRUSH AFTER THAT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING IN UNDER THE CUTOFF LOW...BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS..LOOKS PRIMED TO SPARK OFF ANOTHER MCS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD PLACE ITS ARRIVAL TIME IN OUR CWA SUNDAY EVENING...LINGERING THOUGH MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE WEATHER OF LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING MCS'S I HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A SLOW SOLUTION FOR MOVING A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. TIMING DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO CONVERGE...THOUGH THE ECMWF (AND NOW THE CANADIAN) ARE RUNNING THE SLOWEST...AND THE GFS/NAM/UKMET KEEP THE LOW SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE. 590DM RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST SHOULD HELP IMPEDE THE PROGRESS OF THE CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH PLAINS. HOWEVER...WITH ARLENE WORKING ITS WAY UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THIS COULD KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THOUGH THE PLAINS. THEREFORE I HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS WHICH WOULD INDICATE THAT THE LOW...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IT WILL DRAG THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST WITHIN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN TO AROUND NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LVQ/RC 320 AM CDT SAT... MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES. CURRENT STORMS COMING INTO FORECAST AREA ARE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...NAM ALSO SHOWING MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS CURRENTLY IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...MOVING INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY MIDDAY TODAY. THUS EXPECT AREAS TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY BEFORE THIS WAVE MOVES PAST. FINALLY SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS EVENING AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DEEPENS IN THE FOUR CORNER AREAS TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPMENT INTO KANSAS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH MAY SET STORMS OFF DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT MAIN SHOW SHOULD NOT COME UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WITH MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE. EXPECT THIS WAVE TO BE CLEARING FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO ALL OUR ACTIVE WEATHER. ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT NOT EXPECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO MAJOR FLOODING...SO NO FLOOD WATCH PLANNED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MAY BE A DIFFERENT STORY SO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. TEMPERATURES ABOUT STATUS QUO THROUGH MONDAY...WITH EXPECTED CLOUD DEBRIS AND RAINFALL TO KEEP THEM A BIT IN CHECK. PC && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 525 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 .UPDATE... CURRENT RADAR LOOP IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND LATEST RUC/GFS HAS PCPN AND SFC LOW A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. ADVANCE OF RAIN NORTHWARD ALSO IS FASTER THAN PREDICTED IN GRIDDS. WITH WESTWARD LOOKING NATURE TO PCPN DID ADD SOME CHC POPS INTO THE DVL BASIN THIS AFTN WITH LIKELY POPS UP TO GFK-BJI BY MID AFTERNOON. ----------------------------------------------------------- .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WILL FOLLOW GFS/CANADIAN SOLN NEXT 7 DAYS AS IT HAS PROVEN SUPERIOR TO OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS. .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT THE FOCUS WILL BE ON 500 MB VORT/SFC LOW AND ASSOC PCPN. NAM/ETA FINALLY CAUGHT ON AND THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING PCPN INTO FAR SE ND THIS AFTN AND THEN MOVING IT THROUGH NW MN TONIGHT. SO UPPED POPS TO LIKELY AREAS EAST OF A ROX-FAR LINE. QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST PCPN WILL BE WITH GFK AREA ESPECIALLY TRICKY. ATTM HAVE A TRANSITION 40-50 POP BAND FROM HALLOCK TO GRAND FORKS TO VALLEY CITY AND THEN NO POP FOR DVL BASIN WHICH WILL ESCAPE THIS PCPN. PCPN AREA QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON RADARS AND MAKING GOOD PROGRESS NORTH AND NORTHEAST...00Z RUNS MIGHT HAVE BEEN A TAD SLOW SO AT LAST MINUTE DID UP ARRIVAL TIME IN SE ND TO LATE MORNING. THIS ALSO COORDINATED BETTER WITH BIS/ABR/MPX TIMING. OTHERWISE GOOD COLLABARATION AMONG OFFICES REGARDING POPS TODAY-TONIGHT. HPC QPF GRIDDS LOOK GOOD AND USED IN GFE...WITH TOTALS OF AROUND AN INCH QPF WAHPETON-FERGUS FALLS-BEMIDJI AREA. THIS NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY FLOOD WATCH AND SHOULD NOT POSE ANY PROBLEMS FOR RAPID RUNOFF AS DONT SEE EXTREME RAINFALL RATES INVOLVED AS MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE EAST OF SFC LOW OVER ERN AND SRN MINNESOTA. WILL LEAVE IN CHC POPS BAUDETTE AREA TIL 15Z SUNDAY...THEN DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. NEXT SYSTEM DUE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS BEST PROGGED BY GFS/CANADIAN WITH ETA/NAM TOO DRY AND TOO FAR EAST. WITH THIS IDEA KEPT POPS GOING MON THRU MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. COULD EASILY EXTEND POPS INTO TUES AFTN OR EVENING BASED ON 00Z DATA BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT THAT. ONCE AGAIN PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE NEAR SIOUX FALLS WITH HEAVIEST QPF SE ND/WCNTRL MN/ERN SD. .LONG TERM... A BREAK IN THE WET PATTERN IS ON TAP FOR WED INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW WHICH PASSES BY MON-TUES DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW STALLS IN THE PAC NORTHWEST. THIS FORCES 500 MB RIDGE TO BUILD SHARPLY INTO NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA GIVING FIRST TASTE OF SUMMERY HEAT AND HUMIDITY. RAISED TEMPS A TAD WITH 80 OR HIGHER A GOOD BET WITH MIDDLE 80S VERY POSSIBLE...THOUGH DID NOT RAISE THEM THAT HIGH AS THAT WOULD THROW OFF COORDINATION IN THE GRIDDS. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ RIDDLE nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1000 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... MAIN FEATURES THIS MORNING ARE RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT OFF CAPE HATTERAS AND TROPICAL STORM ARLENE IN N CENTRAL GULF. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS AREA EXCEPT FOR I-77 CORRIDOR...AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN FORECAST. INSTABILITY RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER SURFACE CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY. WILL STICK WITH NOTION OF HIGHER POPS SW THAN NE PER ORIENTATION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AROUND PERIPHERY OF ARLENE...BUT DID ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG S BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AS RADAR SHOWING SOME WEARK ACTIVITY DEVELOPING THERE ALREADY. TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR 06Z MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO IN S AND W WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST. UPDATED DEW POINTS FROM 06Z MAV...THOUGH LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE. UPDATED WIND FROM 06Z MESOETA...WHICH SEEMED TO HAFVE BETTER HANDLE ON WIND DIRECTION THAT 12Z RUC. ADDED SOME GUSTS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENING...WITH MAIN IMPACT IN GA AND S NC MTS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 319 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL RETROGRESSION TODAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION (~5 C AT H5). IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS...THE VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIRMASS DEPICTED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN IN 00Z U/A ANALYSES WILL ADVECT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT TODAY. THEREFORE...CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE MUCH MORE SLIM ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. IN FACT...POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO 20% ACROSS OUR EASTERN PIEDMONT ZONES. EVEN THESE WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE ZFP...AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL HINDER THUNDER CHANCES. FURTHER WEST...THE PRESENCE OF T.S. ARLENE OVER THE EASTERN GULF COMPLICATES MATTERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE OFFICIAL TPC TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BY 24 HOURS THEY ARE VERY SIMILAR. THEREFORE...THE GFS HAS BEEN FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE GFS REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN ADVECTING A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A RESPECTABLE SOUTHEAST H8 FLOW OF AROUND 30 KTS DEVELOPS IN THE GFS TONIGHT. W/ PWATS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2"...WOULD EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING FOR INTENSE CONVECTION...THESE SHOWERS WILL BE EXTREMELY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...AND SUSPECT WE WILL SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT HAS ALREADY RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL THIS WEEK FROM DIURNAL CONVECTION. THEREFORE...PLAN TO ISSUE AN ESF TO ADDRESS FLOODING POTENTIAL IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY MONDAY...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE...BECOMING MORE OR LESS PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE PACKAGE ATTM BEYOND THE SHORT TERM. AVIATION... QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF. MORE LLVL DRY AIR IS ALSO WORKING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. WHEREAS DWPTS WERE IN THE 70S OVER CENTRAL AND ERN NC AND SC LAST NIGHT...TNGT THEY ARE MORE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THIS IS THE RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED THE THE STRENGTHENING ATLANTIC HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF ARLENE. CONSIDERING THE CLOUD COVER AND THE LOWER DWPTS...HAVE GONE LESS PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CIGS AND VSBYS THAN WHAT PERSISTENCE FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WOULD SUGGEST. THE ONLY IFR CIGS IN THIS PACKAGE ARE AT KAVL...AND THE KCLT TAF DOES NOT EVEN GO DOWN TO MVFR CIGS. HAVE GONE W/VCSH IN THE TAFS TDA AS MID LEVELS WL BE VERY WARM AND ONLY ISLD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. DON/T HAVE ANYTHING IN AT KCLT AS THEY LOOK TO BE COMPLETELY CAPPED OFF IN THE DRIER AIR AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAT sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 815 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 .DISCUSSION... ENOUGH INSTABILITY AT ARND 800 J/KG ALG FRONTAL BNDRY TO INITIATE SHORT LIVED CONVECTION...BUT DEEPER FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF WAVE LIFTING INTO NRN MN/NERN ND LKLY HELPING TO KEEP ACTIVITY AT ISOLD/SCT LVLS. BNDRY WL CONTINUE TO FOCUS LIMITED CONVECTION THRU MID EVNG...FURTHER HURT BY LOSS OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY. AFTER THIS...WL FOLLOW SOME POSTFRONTAL SC EASTWARD...ADEQUATELY PREDICTED BY 18Z NAM AND 21Z RUC...TO AFFECT TEMPERATURE DROP...BUT LOWS FROM PREVIOUS FCST APPEAR VERY REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM DWPTS/CLOUDS. WL CONTINUE THREAT FOR SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT WITH WK SFC RIDGE FROM CNTRL SD TO WRN NEBRASKA BECOMING CNTRD ACRS LOWER MO RVR VALLEY TOWARD DAYBREAK. UPDATED GRIDS/PFM SENT EARLIER...ZFP BY 02Z TO CLEAR CONVECTION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 320 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 RYRHOLM SCT SHWRS/TSTMS SHUD BE ASSCD WITH CDFNT NR I29 ATTM MOVG EWD THRU SWRN MN AND NWRN IA THIS EVE. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF INSTABILITY OR CONVERGENCE...SO SHUD NOT BE A BIG DEAL. ONLY PROBLEM IS INCRG WATER AND RIVER LEVELS IN JAMES VALLEY DUE TO ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OUT THERE THIS MRNG. DRYING EXPCD FM W TO E IN THE CWA TNGT... AT LEAST ALOFT...AS GROUND VERY MOIST. THEN AS WEAK SFC HIGH MOVES AND CLRS OUT SKIES FM W TO E OVR CWA LATE TNGT...AREAS OF FOG ARE QUITE PSBL. A REALLY NICE DAY EXPCD FOR SUN BTWN SYSTEMS...AND WILL KEEP PREV FCST MAXED OUT HIGHS WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. THEN NEXT AND LAST BIG SYSTEM FOR AWHILE WILL SLAM INTO CWA SUN NGT WITH STG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...SO WILL GO 70 TO 90 POPS IN CWA. THIS BAND MOVES OFF TO NE OF CWA MON LEAVING US IN TEMPORARY DRY AND WARM SLOT...EXCPT IN NRN CWA WHERE CLDS MAY LINGER LONGER. SCT SHWRS/TSTMS SHUD REDVLP EWD OVER CWA MON AFTN WITH HEATING AND LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE. GFS TOO FAST WITH CDFNT MON WITH 12Z ETA BTR. MAIN PRECIP SHUD BE IN NWRN CWA CLOSE TO UPR LOW FM MON AFTN THRU NGT WITH DVLPG WRAPAROUND WHICH WILL MOVE THRU NRN CWA TUE. UPR RDG AND WARMING SHOULD MOVE EWD OVR CWA WED THRU NEXT WEEKEND...AND WILL KEEP THE DRY FCST AND GO A LIT WARMER THAN GUID TEMPS FRI/SAT. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ CHAPMAN sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 900 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 .DISCUSSION... A BROAD BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUED LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. AREAS GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM LAWRENCEBURG TO LEBANON AND CELINA HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED WHAT COULD BE TERMED A "GOOD SOAKIN' RAIN" THIS EVENING, GOOD FOR GARDEN AND GRASS GROWING (TO BE FOLLOWED LATER TONIGHT BY AN INCREASED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL). AT 0151Z, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THREE HOUR RAIN AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OVER A LARGE PART OF SOUTWESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO NEAR AN INCH AND A QUARTER NEAR THE ALABAMA BORDER. THE ASOS RAIN BUCKET IN NASHVILLE HAS PICKED UP JUST UNDER A HALF INCH OF RAIN SINCE 18Z. LATEST RUC INDICATES THAT THE BAND OF RAIN CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA SHOULD CONTINUE ROTATING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY, EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT RAINS TO SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING LATE TONIGHT IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE PUSH NORTHWARD OUT OF ALABAMA. LATEST RADAR TRENDS OVER TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA INDICATE A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE HEAVIER RAIN IN BETWEEN THE BAND OF RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE MID STATE AND THE CONCENTRATED AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOCUSED MORE CLOSELY AROUND ARLENE'S CENTER OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA. LATEST RUC PROGS INDICATE THAT THE EDGE OF HEAVIEST RAINS NEAR ARLENE'S CORE SHOULD START TO WORK INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESEE LATE TONIGHT, BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THUS, RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING LATE TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE WEST OF I 65 AND SOUTH OF A PARSONS TO COLUMBIA LINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE MID STATE AND FOLKS IN THE WATCH AREA ARE ADVISED TO STAY TUNED TO A RELIABLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION AS THE HEAVY RAINS FROM ARLENE CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND SEE NO NEED FOR AN UPDATE AT THIS TIME. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH WEST OF PLATEAU TONIGHT/SUNDAY. && $$ 19 tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO ADD AVIATION DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 650 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 .AVIATION... ISOLATED/LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE NOW MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...AND WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE TAFS. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE RUC/NAM/GFS DOES INDICATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MCS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN NORTHEAST OF METROPLEX AIRPORTS AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT OUT WEST AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN INCLUDE NO MENTION OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST...AS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT CU...AS WELL AS SOME AC...THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM 150-180 THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS AT 9-14 KNOTS. 65/DD && .DISCUSSION... 00Z UPPER AIR/SATELLITE SHOWS TRAILING PORTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTH TX. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH RICH MOISTURE AND MODEST LOW LEVEL JET LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. SLIGHTLY COOLER 700-500 MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE...BUT WARMER TEMPS AT 700 MB POISED TO MOVE BACK OVER AREA. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN NIGHT/... MORNING SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE MOVING NNE...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. ALSO WILL WATCH TSTM COMPLEX AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN OK...SOME OF THIS COULD BUILD DOWN INTO NORHTERN ZONES AS WELL. SLGT CHC POPS FROM I-20 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD SHOULD SUFFICE. WEAK VORT TO MOVE ACROSS WEST TX INTO OK/KS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN W-N OF CWA. HOWEVER...TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE AROUND PEAK HEATING. SIMILAR TO PAST FEW DAYS...SOME STORMS MAY REACH WEST/NORTH ZONES DURING THE EVENING/ OVERNIGHT HOURS SO WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS NW TONIGHT. BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST E-NE SURFACE FLOW FROM ARLENE WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING E TX. THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF SEABREEZE TSRA. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIALLY MORE INTERESTING DAY FOR NORTH TX. MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ROTATES ACROSS W/NW TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. NAM A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN GFS. HEIGHTS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH AND EXPECT CAP TO BE AN ISSUE...BUT DRYLINE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH FARTHER EAST. THUS...STORMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING INTO NORTH TX. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NW ZONES SUN AFTN AND CHANCE W AND N ZONES FOR SUN NIGHT. LONG TERM /MON AND BEYOND/... UPPER SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM NORTH TX MONDAY MORNING. CONSISTENT WITH STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM...NAM PUSHES SURFACE FRONT ACROSS RED RIVER INTO NORTH TX. GFS IS FARTHER NORTH WITH FEATURES AND KEEPS FRONT IN OKLAHOMA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND POSSIBLE MESOSCALE INFLUENCES...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE MORNING FOR RED RIVER ZONES. GFS DOES SINK BOUNDARY INTO NORTH TX BY MON NIGHT/TUESDAY. LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT SO DONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...BUT MODEL CONSISTENCY IN PUSHING BOUNDARY SOUTH WARRANTS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN ZONES MON NIGHT/TUE. DIFFUSE BOUNDARY AND SEABREEZE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCES WED. BY THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER HIGH PLAINS...PUTTING NORTH TX IN NORTHWEST FLOW. GFS HINTS AT AN MCS MOVING SE INTO NORTH TX THURSDAY...BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ADDING POPS TO FORECAST. RIDGE EXPANDS OVER NORTH TX BY FRIDAY. WILL TREND SHORT-TERM TEMPS TOWARD MAV VALUES...BELIEVE MET IS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN WARMUP ON SUNDAY. MEX TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE TOO COOL FOR END OF WEEK. WILL TREND A LITTLE WARMER THAN MEX...ALTHOUGH IF GFS FORECAST OF NW FLOW SYSTEMS IS CONSISTENT IN FUTURE RUNS...THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. ..06.. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 74 95 74 / 20 10 10 20 WACO, TX 94 73 95 73 / 0 10 0 10 PARIS, TX 91 71 92 72 / 20 10 10 20 DENTON, TX 93 72 95 74 / 20 20 20 30 MCKINNEY, TX 92 73 95 74 / 20 10 10 20 DALLAS, TX 93 74 94 74 / 20 10 10 20 TERRELL, TX 93 73 94 74 / 20 10 10 20 CORSICANA, TX 94 73 94 74 / 10 10 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 94 73 95 73 / 0 10 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. && $$ 65/06 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 851 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 .UPDATE... AFTER FIRST ROUND OF STORMS LONG SINCE GONE...HAVE BEEN MOPPING UP RESIDUAL STORMS WHICH FIRED LATE THIS AFT/EVT IN SW WISC/NERN IA AND MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST. RATHER ISOLATED IN FASHION...BUT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN HOLDING TOGETHER. SECONDARY H7-H5 VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND THE TROF INDUCED THIS ACTION AS IT EASILY GREW IN A NARROW 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE AXIS ALONG THE MS RVR LATE THIS AFTN/EVE. MOST INTENSE STORM NOW NEAR TOMAH WITH SOME WIND POTENTIAL /THOUGH NOT SVR/ WITH LAPS SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOWING 30-40KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1-4KM AGL. SHOWED A LITTLE BOWING STRUCTURE EARLIER BUT OBS IN ITS PATH NOT SHOWING MUCH WIND. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WL PERSIST AS IT LIFT NORTHEAST THIS EVE THEN WEAKEN AS VORT RAPIDLY DAMPENS OUT PER RUC/NAM AFT 03Z. LASTLY...DECENT COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT CROSSING NRN IA/SRN MN HEADING TOWARD CWA. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY REMAINS WITH MEAN MIXED CAPES ~400 J/KG AND MU CAPES ~1000 J/KG. ENOUGH FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...AND NICE LINE OF TCU/SHRA ON SAT/88-D'S. GIVEN SHARPNESS OF WIND SHIFT AND OBVIOUS GOOD CONVERGENCE INTO BOUNDARY...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS FOR THIS FEATURE INTO CWA AFT MIDNIGHT DESPITE DIURNAL DOWNWARD TREND IN INSTABILITY. BINAU && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005) SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A LOW IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE/WIND SHIFT LINE INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. LOCAL RADAR SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA PROVIDED THE FORCING TO SET OFF THE STORMS OVER THE AREA. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND PAST THE AREA. AS IT DOES...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE AREA. CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM OR TWO AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT REALLY SLOWS UP SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS TO HELP INITIATE ANY DEVELOPMENT BUT CAPES DURING THE AFTERNOON BUILD INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE DATABASE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL LEAVE THESE IN PLACE FOR NOW. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY EAST/WEST JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSS THE ROCKIES. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A NORTHWARD PUSH TOWARD THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY PUSH SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA. WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES TO BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS DURING THIS TIME TO NOT DO TOO MUCH DETAILING WITH THE DATABASE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST MONDAY PRODUCING DEEP VERTICAL MOTIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT WITH A GOOD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THE NAM IS SHOWING AROUND 4 UBAR/S OF UPGLIDE ON THE 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE TO HELP PRODUCE THE RAIN. RAISED THE POPS TO 50 PERCENT FOR MONDAY AND IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE MAY HAVE TO RAISE INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH LATER FORECASTS. LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THIS TIME FRAME. GFS/DGEX INDICATE THIS LOW WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BEFORE STALLING OUT. RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEST HELPING TO ESTABLISH AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN. THE ECMWF IS LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW AND BUILDS A REX BLOCK OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN. OVERALL CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST ARE MINIMAL OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE TWEAKS. OPERATION RUN OF THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST MEMBER OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE FAMILY WITH MEAN NUMBERS ANYWHERE FROM 7 TO 11 DEGREES WARMER EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST WHICH FOR THE MOST PART SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND MEAN NUMBERS. ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. $$ && DAS wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 430 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 .DISCUSSION... MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. MANY CHALLENGING ISSUES TO DEAL WITH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND BUT USED MORE OF THE DETAIL FOUND IN THE RUC AND NAM FOR MONDAY. THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM IS QUIET FOR A CHANGE. SURFACE LOW NOW OVER FAR NORTHERN MN WITH DECENT PRESSURE RISES CONTINUING INTO NORTH CENTRAL IA. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE E AND SE PORTION OF THE CWA WITH DRIER AIR INTO THE NW. A FEW SHOWERS BUBBLED ON THE FRONT EARLIER TONIGHT BUT LACK OF SIGNIF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY HAS PUT AN END TO THAT. BAND OF ELEVATED THETA-E ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED AC TO FESTER OVER NW MO WITH THUNDER CONFINED TO KS IN AREA OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AIDED BY APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. MODELS BRING BAND OF ELEVATED THETA-E ADVECTION NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS BAND IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND IN FAIRLY DRY AIR. 06Z MODELS BACKED OFF IN SPEED OF ASSOCIATED PCPN LIFTING NORTH TODAY BUT REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO BETWEEN HWY 30 AND 20 BY LATE AFTN ACCORDING TO THE RUC AND NAM. LOW LEVEL FLOW CONVERGENCE REMAIN WEAK WHILE INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO FAIRLY LOW. NONETHELESS COULD SEE SOME MULTICELLULAR STORMS POP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BEST DEEP LAYERED INSTABILITY RETURNS OVER IA LATER TONIGHT AS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREA WILL BE IN GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENT AREA STRONG UVM. LOOKS LIKE MCS WILL LIFT NE INTO THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF THE PCPN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUNDINGS ARE WARM AND MOIST WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. TOUGH CALL AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WE WILL GET AS THE MOST INTENSE RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE LIFTING NE AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP WITH MODERATE TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN PROBABLY ENCOMPASSING THE BULK OF THE EVENT. WILL NEED TO REVISIT THIS TODAY FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT/MONDAY. TOUGHEST CALL ON THE FORECAST IS MONDAY. STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A QUITE ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY. HOWEVER... PARAMETER TIMING STILL NOT LINING UP SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH AT THIS TIME. DOES LOOK LIKE THE TYPICAL PROBLEM OF WHETHER OR NOT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TIME TO RECOVER FROM THE MORNING MCS. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS ONLY THE FAR WEST OR SW WILL RECOVER. MAIN CONCERN IS THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN DEEP LAYERED SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WOULD BE LIKELY. HOWEVER GIVEN TIMING OF LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING DEVELOPMENT...BEST TORNADO PARAMETERS WOULD HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE MOST LIKELY STORM DEVELOPMENT AREA. IF MORNING CONVECTION LIFTS NE FAST ENOUGH AND THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS FULLY...AND IF SURFACE FLOW CAN REMAIN BACKED ENOUGH...TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST. WITH THAT SAID...CAN ALSO SEE A SCENARIO WHEREBY WE GET DRY SLOTTED AND FLOW VEERS...DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA A LITTLE FASTER AND WE REMAIN DRY. TOO TOUGH TO CALL. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN POSITION OF CLOSED UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH TUES AND WEDS. DOES APPEAR CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE AT LEAST NORTHERN IA A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON INSTABILITY STORMS TUES. STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE && $$ JAW ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 345 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE POTENTIAL OF SHRA/TSRA TODAY AND THEN TIMING PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA LATER MON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT WRN CONUS TROF AND ERN RIDGE. IN THE SW FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...A SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING INTO WRN ONTARIO. TAIL END OF THIS SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING ACROSS NRN WI INTO UPPER MI ATTM AND HAS BEEN OCCASIONALLY SPARKING ISOLD SHRA/TSRA. SUBSIDENCE AND MIDLEVEL DRYING/WARMING NOTED IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NE INTO THE UPPER LAKES TODAY. 00Z MODEL RUNS SUPPORT GOING FCST TODAY OF LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE...500MB HEIGHTS/TEMPS RISE ABOUT 30M/2C DURING THE DAY...THOUGH STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE PASS NW OF FCST AREA. EVEN SO...MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MIDLEVEL DRYING THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. POOL OF 25-30C 700MB DWPT DEPRESSIONS SPREADS NE ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY. THIS DRY AIR ORIGINATES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IN THE VCNTY OF NEBRASKA WHERE 00Z SOUNDINGS AT KOAX AND ESPECIALLY KLBF SHOWED SHARP DRYING AT AND ABOVE 700MB. COMBINATION OF WARMING AT 500MB AND IMPRESSIVE 700MB DWPT DEPRESSIONS LEADS TO VERY LOW K INDEX BLO 10 (AND EVEN BLO 0 PER GFS) OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. GIVEN SUBSIDENCE/DRYING/CAPPING...FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT A DRY DAY (AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING ISOLD SHRA)...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF OR SO OF FCST AREA WHICH GETS INTO THE DRYING THIS MORNING. THE ONLY POTENTIAL PROBLEM WOULD BE OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WHERE MOISTURE LINGERS THRU THE MORNING BEFORE DRYING REALLY SETS IN...BUT EVEN THERE...NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAPPING CONVECTION...AND BY THE TIME CAP CAN BE BROKEN...MIDLEVELS BECOME PROHIBITIVELY DRY. THERE STILL MIGHT BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP...AND WILL THUS MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHC MENTION OVER THE E...BUT ONLY UNTIL AFTN. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE TODAY...ESPECIALLY W HALF...WITH ONLY A SCATTERING OF CU CAPPED BY SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. SW 950MB WINDS OF 15-20KT THRU EARLY AFTN WILL KEEP SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE AT BAY UNTIL PERHAPS LATE AFTN WHEN WINDS SLACKEN. MIXING TO 850MB ON NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPS EASILY INTO THE 80S. AREAS THAT DOWNSLOPE IN SW WIND (SUCH AS L'ANSE/MARQUETTE) WILL BE WARMEST AND SHOULD PUSH MID 80S. EXPECT A TRANQUIL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH MIDLEVEL RIDGING AND LINGERING DRY AIR. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY APPROACH FROM THE SW LATE. SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS MOS MINS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S LOOK ACCEPTABLE. ON MON...CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER NEBRASKA/SD VCNTY WHILE MIDLEVEL RIDGING OVER UPPER MI SLIPS E A BIT. LIGHT WIND REGIME THRU EARLY AFTN WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP. EXAMINATION OF NAM SOUNDINGS OVER ERN FCST AREA IN THE AFTN FOR A SFC T/TD OF 81/61F YIELDS SBCAPE OF 200-400J/KG. SINCE LAKE BREEZES OFF SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN WILL PROBABLY COLLIDE OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ISOLD SHRA/TSRA COULD POP. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW THOUGH SINCE THAT AREA WILL BE MORE FIRMLY UNDER LINGERING MIDLEVEL RIDGING. TO THE W...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING INFLUENCE OF PLAINS MIDLEVEL LOW AND A POTENTIAL LEAD SHORTWAVE MAY BRING PCPN INTO THE SW COUNTIES. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE SURGING BACK N INTO UPPER MI...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO VORT THAT IS CONVECTIVELY STRENGTHENED OVER THE PLAINS AS IT LIFTS N (THUS STRONGER WIND FIELDS AND TEMP/MOISTURE ADVECTION). THE MORE SUBDUED ADVECTION SHOWN BY THE NAM LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. WILL THUS HOLD ONTO DRY WEATHER THRU 22Z PER PREVIOUS FCST. WITH MIDLEVEL LOW DRIFTING TO SW MN BY 12Z TUE...SHRA AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSRA WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NE INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT. WILL TREND POPS FROM 30 E TO 40 FAR W...CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE. MIDLEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT E TO NEAR KMSP BY 00Z WED PER ETA/GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF HEATING TUE...SVR STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS 30-40KT PER NAM/GFS...AND SBCAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 600-1200J/KG. APPROACHING COLD POOL WITH MIDLEVEL LOW WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL OF HAIL...AND THERE MAY ALSO BE A TOR THREAT IF OCCLUDED FRONT REACHES UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE MIDLEVEL LOW TO TRACK S OF THE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP OCCLUDED FRONT S OF UPPER MI AS WELL. IN ANY CASE...IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE DETAILS AS RELATED TO SVR STORM POTENTIAL ON TUE. GOING FCST FOR LATER IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. AFTER SHRA MOVE OUT WED NIGHT...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS SHAPING UP FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 357 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 .DISCUSSION... WATCHING STORMS FIRING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. A NEARLY STATIONARY WEST/EAST BAND OF CONVECTION STRETCHED FROM JUST NORTH OF BOURBON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS AREA OF STORMS LOOKED TO BE FORMING IN AN AREA OF 800-700MB THETA-E LAYER CONVERGENCE. RUC DATA INDICATES THIS BAND OF CONVERGENCE WILL STAY JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS FOUND ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WAS PUSHING NORTHEAST...CLOSE TO THE MOVEMENT PROGGED BY THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. WITH THIS MOVEMENT...THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WOULD PASS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE COMPLEX HAS SHOWN A MORE EASTWARD TREND WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME BUST POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW...GRIDS WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A JOPLIN TO APPLETON CITY LINE...WITH CHANCES TRENDING DOWNWARD TO 40 POPS AS FAR EAST AS SPRINGFIELD. FURTHER EAST...WENT AROUND 30 POPS FOR ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL WEAKEN...AS THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL STAY FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI TODAY. IN ADDITION...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ARLENE'S REMNANTS. NAM 700-500MB RH PROGS ARE 30 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL LIKELY INHIBIT WIDESPREAD AIRMASS CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOW ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI. DID CONSIDER A FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE LOCATIONS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA . IN ADDITION...THE COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHERN KS/OKLAHOMA LOOKS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO LOOK AT POSSIBLY ISSUING A FFA FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY TIME FRAME...AS MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. STILL SOME QUESTION TO AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE HEAVIER RAIN SET UP. FOR TONIGHT...IT LOOKS AS IF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL JET AND GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT VEERS INTO THE AREA TOWARDS 12Z ON MONDAY. THEREFORE WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER. AGAIN...LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR A FFA DURING THIS PERIOD. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE INCREASING ON MONDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LOW FINALLY KICKS OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. IF CLOUDS CLEAR FROM MORNING REMNANT CONVECTION...MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...NAM 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD SOME 30-ISH POPS ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF ARLENE'S REMNANTS. THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. SAW && .AVIATION... FOR 06Z TAFS...VERY LOW STRATUS HAS FORMED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO AND IS ADVECTING NWWD AND WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE KSGF TAF SITE BY AROUND 10Z. STRATUS HAS BEEN DOWN TO 001 AT UNO...AND VISBY WENT TO 3/4 MILE AS IT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER WITH A 2F DPD. VISBYS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR 1 MILE AT KSGF AS WELL...SO HAVE UPDATED TAF AND TWEB ROUTES. OTHERWISE...FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST THAT VERY LARGE MCS NOW ORGANIZING OVER NW OK AND SW KS WILL LIKELY STAY JUST NW OF BOTH TAF SITES TODAY...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE IMPACT AT KJLN. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS WEDGE OF VERY DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS OVER CWA BETWEEN ARLENE AND DIGGING SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SGF SOUNDING CONFIRMS VERY DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS...SO THINK WIDESPREAD AIRMASS CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. BROWNING && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...NONE. .KS...NONE. $$ WFO SGF mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 335 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES UNTIL TUESDAY. A LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM NEAR WICHITA NORTHEAST TO LINN COUNTY KANSAS. THE ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS/MID LEVEL FRONT AND DEVELOPED WITHIN THE EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE. AM EXPECTING THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EVER SO SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE WESTERN STORM COMPLEX. FURTHER WEST...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER THE PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS COMPLEX WILL PUSH NORTHEAST TODAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING. HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI WITH THE MORNING/MIDDAY ARRIVAL OF THE STORM COMPLEX AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE ALSO EXHIBITED THIS DOWNWARD TREND. AFTER THE STORM COMPLEX MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THE FORECAST MODELS TRY TO REDEVELOP CONVECTION BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE MOST FAVORED PLACEMENT BEING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED SIMILAR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TODAY...BUT THINK THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE MONDAY. THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT THAT HAS HUNG OUT TO OUR WEST DURING THE LAST WEEK OR SO...WILL FINALLY GET A PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH. A 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO PROGGED TO FOCUS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES AVAILABLE. CONVECTIVE MODE POINTS TO POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS...THIS ADDITIONAL ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE MORE FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MANY COUNTY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AT OR BELOW ONE INCH FOR THREE HOURS. THIS SUPPORTS THE ISSUANCE OF THE FLOOD WATCH ALREADY POSTED FOR NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH INCREASING CAPE AND SHEAR...AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THE DIFFLUENT ZONE OF THE UPPER JET IS FORECAST TO BECOME ORIENTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ENTERING WESTERN IOWA. THIS COULD BECOME THE SET UP FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DEPENDING UPON THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOLLOWING THE EXPECTED MORNING CONVECTION. AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE EXIT OF THESE FEATURES WILL BRING AN END TO OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY MID WEEK. NO CHANGES MADE PAST TUESDAY. STOFLET && .PREV DISCUSSION... 952 PM CDT SAT... EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR ENHANCED LIFT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY. WITH SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND RESULTANT LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY. SCHMIT 736 PM CDT SAT... CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING IN BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS AREA CORRELATES WELL WITH RUC SURFACE BASED CAPE ANALYSIS OF 2500+ J/KG AND BULLSEYE OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY. ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. WILL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION EVOLVE INTO A COMPLEX TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFERS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO THIS EVENING...BUT ANTICIPATE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING (WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY THE 18Z NAM). HAVE LOWERED POPS TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. SCHMIT 302 PM CDT SAT... DECAYING MCS EXITED THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER ITS PASSAGE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS STABILIZED. SEEING A LITTLE CU DEVELOPMENT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS IN THE AREA IS A LITTLE TRICKY TO PINPOINT. WE EXPECT TO SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OUT CLOSER TO THE DRY LINE...THERE IS ALSO A BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. STORMS THAT FORM OUT WEST HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RIDE INTO EASTERN KS AND WRN MO VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE SCATTERED ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO GOOD INSTABILITY...AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. TRIED TO BE MORE SPECIFIC ON POPS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT HAVE HAD TO BROADBRUSH AFTER THAT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING IN UNDER THE CUTOFF LOW...BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS..LOOKS PRIMED TO SPARK OFF ANOTHER MCS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD PLACE ITS ARRIVAL TIME IN OUR CWA SUNDAY EVENING...LINGERING THOUGH MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE WEATHER OF LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING MCS'S I HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A SLOW SOLUTION FOR MOVING A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. TIMING DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO CONVERGE...THOUGH THE ECMWF (AND NOW THE CANADIAN) ARE RUNNING THE SLOWEST...AND THE GFS/NAM/UKMET KEEP THE LOW SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE. 590DM RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST SHOULD HELP IMPEDE THE PROGRESS OF THE CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH PLAINS. HOWEVER...WITH ARLENE WORKING ITS WAY UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THIS COULD KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THOUGH THE PLAINS. THEREFORE I HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS WHICH WOULD INDICATE THAT THE LOW...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IT WILL DRAG THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST WITHIN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN TO AROUND NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LVQ/RC && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES 12 PM CDT SUNDAY TO 12 PM CDT MONDAY. KS...FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES 12 PM CDT SUNDAY TO 12 PM CDT MONDAY. $$ mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT 245 AM MDT SUN JUN 12 2005 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL IDAHO IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS FROM LEMHI COUNTY TO MISSOULA TO KALISPELL AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW MAINLY EAST OF KALISPELL AND MISSOULA. THE GFS AND NAM ARE CONSISTENT IN LIFTING THE REGION OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION NORTH FROM NEAR MISSOULA TO GLACIER PARK THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE RUC TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION. CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATES THE RUC IS VERIFYING BETTER THEN THE OTHER MODELS WITH BOTH THE PRECIP REGION AND THE MID LEVEL LOW... EVEN THOUGH IT IS A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH I THINK THE HEAVIER PRECIP SWATH WILL BE LARGER THEN EITHER MODEL IS INDICATING WITH 0.40" TO 1.00" FROM THE SAPPHIRES/BUTTE REGION UP TO GLACIER PARK...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER 1.50' POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE RUNOFF PROBLEMS IN MOST DRAINAGES...BUT THE SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IF HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE SEEN. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP AS CONDITIONS REMAIN MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THEN YESTERDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7000 FEET. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. ON MONDAY CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MONTANA AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY THEN SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SOME DETAILS REMAIN A BIT SKETCHY WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...SO FORECAST MORE BROADBRUSH FOR THAT PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT STALLED OVER NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE UNTIL WEDNESDAY... THEN MOVING OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK WET AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO MID 70S AND LOW 80S BY MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS OF LOWERED VISIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING FROM LEMHI COUNTY TO KALISPELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RE-DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO INTO WESTERN MONTANA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. ID...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETRESCU LONG TERM...MWJ AVIATION...PETRESCU weather.gov/missoula mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 145 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2005 .SHORT TERM... BEGINNING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD. VERY LTL HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL PTRN. VERY MOIST WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES ARND 200% OF NORMAL, CONDITIONS FVRBL FOR SLOW MOVERS AND TRAINING, ETC, ETC. RUC VORT ANYLS SHOWS A S/WV OVER MI/OH AND THIS COULD HELP ENHANCE ACTIVITY TDA. WILL CONTINUE WITH 50 POPS FOR SCT TSRA WITH +RA AND ISSUE SPS HIGHLIGHTING POTNL. DAYSHIFT WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE TO DETERMINE WHETHER A SHORT DURATION FFA WILL HAVE TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA ONCE CONVECTION GETS FIRING. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS FOR TMRW. WENT WITH FWC'S AS THEY HAVE OUTPERFORMED MET/MAV OVER THE PAST SVRL DAYS, AND SEE NO REASON WHY TODAY OR TMRW SHUD BE DIFFERENT. A LTL MORE IN THE WAY OF CLDS TODAY MAY KEEP MAXES JUST A FEW DEG COOLER THAN YDA. POTNLY INTERESTING SITN SHAPING UP MON NGT AND TUES. SOME DIFFS BETWEEN THE MDLS WITH EXACT TRACK AND TIMING BUT IT IS BCMG MORE LIKELY THAT MSTR ASSCD WITH THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE WILL AFFECT THE RGN. MAIN THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE POTNL FOR +RA AND FLOODING. HOWEVER, NO CHGS TO THE MON NGT/TUES FCST AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE MDL DIFFS. && .LONG TERM (MON NITE - SAT)... MUCH OF THE SAME TRIPLE H WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE PERIOD...THEN MANY MED RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE LOCKING ONTO THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF SIGNALING A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WHERE BERMUDA HIGH OVER EAST COAST RETREATS...AND IS REPLACED BY AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH TROFS ON BOTH COASTS OF THE CONTINENTAL US. LOCALLY WE'LL BE LOOKING FOR THE HOT AND HAZY WEATHER OF LATE TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS AS IMPULSES ROUND THE RIDGE...AND ALSO REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM PASS THROUGH OR NEARBY THE REGION. WL GO ABOVE MOS NUMBERS INTO TUESDAY WITH PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS OF 17-18C STILL SUPPORTING MID-UPR 80S...THEN AIRMASS COOLS BACK TO 8-9C BY THE END OF THE WEEK UNDER DVLPG UPR TROF. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO GET BACK INTO THE 60S-70S. MOS IS ACCEPTABLE HERE DAYS 5-7. NOT MUCH ROOM FOR DRY WX NEXT WEEK WITH HGHT FALLS AHEAD OF DIGGING UPR LOW AND FRONT DROPPING THRU THE REGION. WL CARRY CHC PRECIP THROUGHOUT. -BREWSTER && .AVIATION (11/18Z - 12/18Z)... STAGNANT AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH LTL CHANGE NEXT 24 HRS. MAINLY VFR XPCTD WITH OCNL MVFR VSBY IN HAZE DURG DAYLIGHT HRS. TS ACTIVITY LOOKS LIMITED FOR MOST OF AREA WITHOUT A SIG TRIGGER MOVG THRU THE REGION TAFTN...BUT ISOLD TS MOVG ACROSS TERMINALS STILL PSBL THRU ABT 03Z. XCPT FOR AVP WHERE TS IN VCNTY...WL LEAVE TS OUT OF 18Z TAF AND AMD AS NECESSARY. IFR OR LOWER VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS DUE FG/BR LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH VFR RETURNING AFT 13Z. -BREWSTER && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE...SPS ISSUED FOR +RA WITH STORMS. .PA...NONE...SPS ISSUED FOR +RA WITH STORMS. && $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 300 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... AT 0600 UTC THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE WERE CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL AL. THE CIRCULATION WL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TDA THEN GRADUALLY CURVE OFF TO THE EAST AS IT CROSS LAKE ERIE BY LATE MON. AS EXPECTED...WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING QUITE A BIT OF PCPN ALONG THE SRN ESCARPMENT OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY AND HAVE GONE WITH CAT POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE MTNS AND THE FOOTHILLS WITH HIGHEST POPS CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN ESCARPMENT. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE TDA IS DETERMINING THE THREAT AND THE LOCATION OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WHILE ARLENE IS A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM...IT HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ITS EAST...WITH THE GFS AND NAM BOTH KEEPING PW/S AOA 2 INCHES TDA. HOWEVER...THERE IS A PRONOUNCED NW TO SE ORIENTED DRY INTRUSION SHOWING UP ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SW GA ATTM. THERE IS AN ENHANCED PRECIPITATION BAND...AND EVEN A FEW TSTMS...IN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATE AIRMASS ALONG THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS AND THE RUC NEARLY BISECT THE CWFA WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER UVV/S IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DRY SLOT DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN HRS TDA. THIS COULD CERTAINLY BE ENUF TO CAUSE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE WRN HALF OF CWFA. HOWEVER...NOT QUITE CONFIDENT ENUF ATTM TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...SO WL KEEP THE ESF GOING BUT WITH STRONGER WORDING. IF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...THEN A SHORT FUSED WATCH SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPSTATE...SRN NC MTNS OR NE GA WOULD BE A GOOD BET. FLOW WL BECOME MORE WLY TNGT AND LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WL DECREASE AS ARLENE MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WL STILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT...BUT ORGANIZATION OF PCPN WL DECREASE CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF UPSLOPE AND FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE BANDS. GFS HAS BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTING E OF THE REGION MON AFTN...WHILE THE NAM STILL HOLDS ON TO GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE AND LAYER RH/S IN THE WRN ZONES. WL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND GO CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE ONCE WE HEAT UP IN THE AFTN. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS ON TUE AS AIRMASS RETURNS TO SOME SEMBLANCE OF NORMAL WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND BETTER CAPE. WEAK WLY FLOW MAY SERVE TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION ALONG THE LEE SLOPES IN THE AFTN...BUT THAT FLOW IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS...SO IT CERTAINLY WON/T ORGANIZE MUCH. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION... CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO LOWER THIS MORNING (EXCEPT AT KAVL)... DESPITE INCREASINGLY STRONG AND DEEP SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW. AS UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE FLOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SEE NO REASON WHY CEILINGS WON/T LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR AT KAND AND KGSP. INCREASING MOIST UPGLIDE FLOW SHOULD ALSO ALLOW LOW CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT KCLT LATER THIS MORNING. SHOWERS SHOULD BE QUITE NUMEROUS AROUND THE WESTERN TERMINALS...ESP MID MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE GRADIENT SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP FOG AT BAY...ALTHOUGH VISBY WILL DECREASE WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE LATER TODAY...AS UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS PERSISTENT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MCAVOY LONG TERM...MCAVOY AVIATION...JDL sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 932 AM MDT SUN JUN 12 2005 .DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO COME OUT SHORTLY. EARLY ON MAIN CHANGE WAS TO HAVE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WHERE CURRENT RADAR HAS IT. KEPT IT DRY IN OTHER LOCATIONS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THEN HAVE BRIEF WINDOW IN EAST AND NORTH WITH DRY. THEN HAVE ENTIRE AREA LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN MID AND LATE AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING...INCOMING SHORTWAVE...AND DRY LINE. PUT HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE IN ALL LOCATIONS WITH BEST CHANCE WHERE THE SUN IS COMING OUT ALREADY. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND RUC. SUN STARTING TO COME OUT IN THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WINDS BASED ON RUC WHICH LOOKS TO BE DOING WELL. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR DECATUR...GRAHAM...NORTON AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES. .NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR RED WILLOW COUNTY. .CO...NONE. && $$ BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT 925 AM MDT SUN JUN 12 2005 .UPDATE...ONGOING FORECAST PACKAGE ON TRACK...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA...HIGHEST AMOUNTS REPORTED HAVE BEEN AROUND .75 INCHES WITH MOST AREAS REPORTING FROM .3 TO .5 INCHES. UPPER LEVEL LOW VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...TROUGH SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FLOOD PRONE AREAS FOR ANY HYDROLOGIC DISCOMFORT. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL IDAHO IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS FROM LEMHI COUNTY TO MISSOULA TO KALISPELL AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW MAINLY EAST OF KALISPELL AND MISSOULA. THE GFS AND NAM ARE CONSISTENT IN LIFTING THE REGION OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION NORTH FROM NEAR MISSOULA TO GLACIER PARK THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE RUC TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION. CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATES THE RUC IS VERIFYING BETTER THEN THE OTHER MODELS WITH BOTH THE PRECIP REGION AND THE MID LEVEL LOW... EVEN THOUGH IT IS A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH I THINK THE HEAVIER PRECIP SWATH WILL BE LARGER THEN EITHER MODEL IS INDICATING WITH 0.40" TO 1.00" FROM THE SAPPHIRES/BUTTE REGION UP TO GLACIER PARK...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER 1.50' POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE RUNOFF PROBLEMS IN MOST DRAINAGES...BUT THE SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IF HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE SEEN. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP AS CONDITIONS REMAIN MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THEN YESTERDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7000 FEET. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. ON MONDAY CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MONTANA AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY THEN SUNDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SOME DETAILS REMAIN A BIT SKETCHY WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...SO FORECAST MORE BROADBRUSH FOR THAT PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT STALLED OVER NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE UNTIL WEDNESDAY... THEN MOVING OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK WET AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO MID 70S AND LOW 80S BY MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT FLIGHT OPERATIONS WITH LOW OVERCAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME OBSCURATION OF MOUNTAINS. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. ID...NONE. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...KREYENHAGEN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PETRESCU/MWJ weather.gov/missoula mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1034 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE ARE MOVING WEST OF BNA ON THE SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING...WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF OPEN GULF MOISTURE APPARENT EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A THETA E RIDGE AXIS OVER ERN GEORGIA...AND THE COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FORCING SHOULD PROVIDE ABUNDANT COVERAGE ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GA THROUGH AFTERNOON. BEST 850 MB PRES GRAD IS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE MOMENT...WITH WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTN. WILL POST A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FAR SW MTNS WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST. && .HYDROLOGY... TRAINING CONVECTION SETTING UP OVER EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD INCREASINGLY STEER INTO THE NE GA MTNS AND EXTREME SW NC MTNS. MANY OF THESE LOCATIONS HAVE EXPERIENCED 4 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH...WITH RUNNING WEEKEND TOTALS WELL OVER 2 INCHES. PRECIPITATION RATES OF 1/2 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE...AND CONVECTION MAY ACTUALLY SLOW A LITTLE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH SLACKENING GRADIENT BY LATE DAY. LONGER DURATION TYPE FLOODING IS THUS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTN. WILL POST FFA FOR A SMALL CHUNK OF THE EXTREME WRN AREA. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 300 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... AT 0600 UTC THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE WERE CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL AL. THE CIRCULATION WL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TDA THEN GRADUALLY CURVE OFF TO THE EAST AS IT CROSS LAKE ERIE BY LATE MON. AS EXPECTED...WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING QUITE A BIT OF PCPN ALONG THE SRN ESCARPMENT OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY AND HAVE GONE WITH CAT POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE MTNS AND THE FOOTHILLS WITH HIGHEST POPS CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN ESCARPMENT. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE TDA IS DETERMINING THE THREAT AND THE LOCATION OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WHILE ARLENE IS A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM...IT HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ITS EAST...WITH THE GFS AND NAM BOTH KEEPING PW/S AOA 2 INCHES TDA. HOWEVER...THERE IS A PRONOUNCED NW TO SE ORIENTED DRY INTRUSION SHOWING UP ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SW GA ATTM. THERE IS AN ENHANCED PRECIPITATION BAND...AND EVEN A FEW TSTMS...IN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATE AIRMASS ALONG THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS AND THE RUC NEARLY BISECT THE CWFA WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER UVV/S IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DRY SLOT DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN HRS TDA. THIS COULD CERTAINLY BE ENUF TO CAUSE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE WRN HALF OF CWFA. HOWEVER...NOT QUITE CONFIDENT ENUF ATTM TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...SO WL KEEP THE ESF GOING BUT WITH STRONGER WORDING. IF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...THEN A SHORT FUSED WATCH SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPSTATE...SRN NC MTNS OR NE GA WOULD BE A GOOD BET. FLOW WL BECOME MORE WLY TNGT AND LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WL DECREASE AS ARLENE MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WL STILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT...BUT ORGANIZATION OF PCPN WL DECREASE CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF UPSLOPE AND FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE BANDS. GFS HAS BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTING E OF THE REGION MON AFTN...WHILE THE NAM STILL HOLDS ON TO GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE AND LAYER RH/S IN THE WRN ZONES. WL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND GO CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE ONCE WE HEAT UP IN THE AFTN. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS ON TUE AS AIRMASS RETURNS TO SOME SEMBLANCE OF NORMAL WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND BETTER CAPE. WEAK WLY FLOW MAY SERVE TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION ALONG THE LEE SLOPES IN THE AFTN...BUT THAT FLOW IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 KTS...SO IT CERTAINLY WON/T ORGANIZE MUCH. LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND TUESDAY. AVIATION... CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO LOWER THIS MORNING (EXCEPT AT KAVL)... DESPITE INCREASINGLY STRONG AND DEEP SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW. AS UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE FLOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SEE NO REASON WHY CEILINGS WON/T LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR AT KAND AND KGSP. INCREASING MOIST UPGLIDE FLOW SHOULD ALSO ALLOW LOW CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT KCLT LATER THIS MORNING. SHOWERS SHOULD BE QUITE NUMEROUS AROUND THE WESTERN TERMINALS...ESP MID MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE GRADIENT SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP FOG AT BAY...ALTHOUGH VISBY WILL DECREASE WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE LATER TODAY...AS UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS PERSISTENT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...FLOOD WATCH FOR GAZ010-017 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY. NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ051-058-062 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY. ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ051-058-062 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HG HYDROLOGY...HG sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 300 PM EST SUN JUN 12 2005 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND MONDAY. FOR THE SHORT TERM...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE RUC40/NAM. AT 18Z...RUC40 AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED AN UPR LVL CIRCULATION (VORTICITY) OVER FAR WRN KY. THIS CIRCULATION WAS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE. THE SFC REFLECTION (LOW PRESSURE) WAS ALSO LOCATED ACRS FAR WRN KY. LATEST RUC40 TAKES THE UPR LVL CIRCULATION NORTH TO NEAR TERRE HAUTE AROUND 06Z. THEREAFTER...THE NAM BEGINS TO SHIFT THE CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE NE...MOSTLY LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPR LVL TROF ACRS THE THE MID SECTION OF THE UNITED STATES (WHICH IS MAKING SOME PROGRESS EAST). WITH PLENTY OF TROPICAL MSTR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES...RAIN ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY. HOWEVER...SINCE THE REGION HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY THIS PAST SPRING...1 HR AND 3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE STILL RUNNING ON THE HIGH SIDE (2.0 TO 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR AND 3.0 TO 3.5 INCHES PER 6 HOURS TO REACH FFG VALUES)...THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH PROBLEMS IN TERMS OF FLOODING ...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE DURATION WILL BE FOR ABOUT A 12 HOUR PERIOD AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS OF A WARM CORE ORIGIN...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE CIRCULATION ...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS. ON MONDAY...NAM TAKES UPR LVL CIRCULATION CENTER NE INTO SE MICHIGAN BY 18Z. AS SOON AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER PASSES BY...RAIN CHC/S WILL DWINDLE QUICKLY. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE STILL MOIST...IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...SWRN CWFA SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY NOONTIME EST...WITH THE NERN CWFA BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY 3 TO 4 PM EST. NAM INDICATES THAT A MINOR SHORTWAVE MAY EJECT NE INTO THE WRN CWFA LATE IN THE DAY (21Z MON). THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTN. IN THE SPIRIT OF COLLABORATION...HAVE PLACED A BROAD BRUSH 30 POP FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA FOR THE AFTN HOURS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS RAINFALL MAY ALLOW TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD TO DROP BELOW 70 DEGREES BY MORNING. AS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY...THE SWRN CWFA WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE SUNSHINE...SO UPPER 80S ARE LIKELY HERE...WHILE ONLY LOWER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE NE DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER. && LONG TERM... MONDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST IN THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. WV IMGRY ALREADY SHOWING DIGGING OF TROF WITH MAIN UPR LVL JET MOVG OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE THE SECONDARY JET MAX STARTING TO MOV INTO BRIT COLUMBIA AND OREGON. AS MAIN UPR LVL JET MAX MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS...IT WILL SLOW THE EASTWRD PROGRESSION OF STORM SYSTEM AS TROF BECOMES NEGTVLY TILTED. BY MON EVE A COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER MO AND SO IL WITH THE HELP OF DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORTED FROM THE GULF AS A LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES DVLPMNT. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT MON AND INTO EARLY TUE. ONLY QUESTION ATTM IS HOW STRONG THESE STORMS WILL BE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. NEW SWO DAY2 FROM SPC NOW PUTS US INTO SLGT RISK...AND ATTM SEEMS REASONABLE. (SEE SWODY2 OUTLOOK) THEN DRY SLOT LOOKS TO MOVE OVER REGION AND ALLOW THE ATMOS TO DESTABILIZE BY LATE MORNING TUE OVER CWA. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND THE HELP OF THE SECONDARY JET MAX CONTINUE TO SEE A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE DVLP IN OR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AHD OF COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIF SVR OUTBREAK TO PASS OVER CWA DURING TUE AFT-EVE TIMEFRAME. WILL HOLD ONTO POPS INTO WED NIGHT AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHWRS/STORMS WITH H50 COLD POOL OVRHD. THEN UPR TROF LOOKS TO GET PUSHED OUT QUICKER THAN PREV RUNS AND BUYING INTO THEORY AS VERY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. AFTER A QUICK MIDWEEK COOL DOWN...MILDER BUT DRYER SETTING ONCE AGAIN IN STORE FOR THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER EAST. && .AVIATION... 17Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED SFC LOW PRESSURE WEST OF BNA...WHICH WAS CLOSE TO THE RUC40 POSITION. THIS SFC LOW WAS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE. WILL FOLLOW RUC40/NAM IN THE SHORT TERM WHICH TAKE THE UPR LVL CIRCULATION ASSOCD WITH THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE NORTH TOWARD EVV BY 00Z MON...THEN NE TOWARD NE INDIANA BY 12Z MON. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES...RAIN WILL BECOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF UPR LVL CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT OF THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS ...CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT. AM ONLY FCSTING A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS JUST BEHIND THE UPR LVL CIRCULATION...AND THIS SHOULD BE SMALL ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. HOWEVER...LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY 18Z MON. AS A SIDE NOTE...GIVEN TROPICAL SYSTEM...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLD IN NATURE (WARM CORE SYSTEM)...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSRA IN THE TAFS. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IN...NONE. .MI...NONE. .OH...NONE. .LK MI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HICKMAN LONG TERM...WAMSLEY in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 219 PM EST SUN JUN 12 2005 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PRECIP TONIGHT THEN THROUGH PRECIP INTO MID WEEK. AT 19Z REMNANTS OF ARLENE WERE IN FAR SRN KY. MAIN PRECIP SHIELD WITH REMNANTS WAS ENTERING FAR SWRN FORECAST AREA /FA/ WITH OTHER BANDS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF REMAINDER OF FA. ONE OR TWO LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED. REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OF BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR IN SWRN FA...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. MODELS ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS RUN. GFS/RUC ARE DOING BEST WITH REMNANTS OF ARLENE AT 18Z...SO WILL LEAN ON THESE THROUGH SHORT TERM. AFTER SHORT TERM WILL USE A BLEND. BULK OF PRECIP SHIELD IS NORTH OF SFC LOW CENTER...SO EXPECT MOST OF PRECIP TO BE OVER ACROSS SRN FA BY MIDNIGHT. CURRENT PRECIP PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS WRN HALF OF FA. WILL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF FA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FA SWRN FA WHICH WILL BE NEAR END OF MAIN PRECIP SHIELD BY 23Z. AFT MIDNIGHT...DECREASED POPS SOME SWRN HALF OF FA. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STAYING REASONABLE GIVEN RECENT VERY DRY CONDITIONS...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH NO FLOOD WATCH. WENT WITH FWC/MET BLEND FOR LOW TEMPS AS MAV LOOKS A BIT COOL GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS DUE TO RAIN. CHC POPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR MON MORNING FOR ANY LINGERING PRECIP FROM REMNANTS OF ARLENE...THEN MORE CHC POPS NEEDED FOR MON AFTN AS ATMS DESTABILIZES WITH SOME HEATING. NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER NOTED...THOUGH NAM HINTING AT POSSIBLE TSRA COMPLEX MOVING IN LATE IN THE DAY. WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS ALL DAY ENTIRE FA. WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR MAV/MET NUMBERS. WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN TSRA DEVELOPMENT MON AFTN AND POSSIBLE BOUNDARIES AROUND...KEPT CHC POPS IN MON NIGHT. ON TUE SYNOPTIC FORCING WEAKENS EVEN THOUGH COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT ATMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE UNSTABLE SO CHC POPS LOOK GOOD. UPPER LOW PASSING NEARBY ON WED WILL CREATE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHRA...MAINLY NERN FA. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ CS in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1240 PM EST SUN JUN 12 2005 .AVIATION... 17Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED SFC LOW PRESSURE WEST OF BNA...WHICH WAS CLOSE TO THE RUC40 POSITION. THIS SFC LOW WAS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE. WILL FOLLOW RUC40/NAM IN THE SHORT TERM WHICH TAKE THE UPR LVL CIRCULATION ASSOCD WITH THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE NORTH TOWARD EVV BY 00Z MON...THEN NE TOWARD NE INDIANA BY 12Z MON. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES...RAIN WILL BECOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF UPR LVL CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT OF THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS ...CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT. AM ONLY FCSTING A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS JUST BEHIND THE UPR LVL CIRCULATION...AND THIS SHOULD BE SMALL ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. HOWEVER...LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY 18Z MON. AS A SIDE NOTE...GIVEN TROPICAL SYSTEM...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLD IN NATURE (WARM CORE SYSTEM)...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSRA IN THE TAFS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... UPDATE... REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS JUST WEST OF BNA AT 15Z. LATEST NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON ITS POSITION THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. REMNANTS ARE FCST TO BE NEAR EVV AT 00Z MON...THEN NEAR THE NORTH WEBSTER NWS OFFICE BY 12Z MON. TROPICAL MSTR ASSOCD WITH ARLENE IS ALREADY OCCURRING WELL AHEAD OF SYSTEM AS KIWX RADAR DEPICTED RAIN ACRS THE SRN CWFA. WILL LAYER POPS FROM 80 ACRS THE NORTH TO 100 ACRS THE SOUTH FOR TODAY. WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN...AM ONLY EXPECTING ISOLD CONVECTION...SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF THUNDER. TEMPS SOMEWHAT TRICKY AS A FEW BREAKS ACRS THE NORTH HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM AROUND 80 DEGREES...WHILE THE SOUTH REMAINS IN THICKER CLOUD COVER. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH SEEMS LIKELY AT THIS POINT...WITH SOME COOLING OCCURRING DURING THE AFTN HOURS ASSOCD WITH THE RAIN. SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE WAS OVER EXTREME WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA AT 07Z. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY TONIGHT ACCORDING TO TPC/NHC FORECASTS AND NCEP MODEL TRAJECTORIES. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE 00Z RUN BRINGING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM HAS BEEN TRENDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS HIGHER...AND THE 00Z RUN WHICH MOVED THE MAX RAINFALL AREA TO THE EAST WAS CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION THAN PREVIOUS NAM RUNS. HAVE RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN CONFIDENCE OF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE RAIN SHIELD WAS DEVELOPING CONSIDERABLY NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND WAS EXTENDING WELL INTO INDIANA. EXPECT THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN TO OVERSPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BECOMING HEAVIER TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST OVER SOME AREAS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THE ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS AND PLENTY OF FOLIAGE WILL HELP MINIMIZE THE RISK OF FLOODING...SO NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED THIS PACKAGE. GIVEN THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND HAVE REMOVED THUNDER TONIGHT. LONG TERM... MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDING TWD A CONSENSUS ON EJECTING DEEP WRN TROF AND FURTHER W/TRACK OF REMNANTS OF T.S. ARLENE. REMAINS OF ARLENE OVERHEAD EARLY MON WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NE INTO CANADA BY AFTN GIVEN INCREASING DEEP LYR SW FLW AHD OF EJECTING UPSTREAM TROF. WILL CARRY GRADATED POP FM CHC SW TO CAT NE FOR THE MORNING. MAIN DIFFICULTY WILL BE PENCHANT FOR CONV DVLPMNT BY LT AFTN/EVE ESP W/LEFTOVER TROPICAL MSTR IN PLACE GIVEN 350K 850MB THETA-E AND APPROACH OF UPSTREAM TROF. MODEST DOWNSTREAM WAA SIGNAL PRESENT LT MON AND GIVEN DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION SEE NO REASON NOT TO CONT 40 POP MENTION THEN. HWVR CLEAREST FOCUS WWD AHD OF SFC FRONT AND INADV OF EJECTING LEAD MCV FM DAY1 DVLPMNTS ACRS SRN PLAINS W/NOD TWD NAM SOLUTION FITTING MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE LONG TERM FOCUS CNTRD ON ARRIVAL OF DEEP UPR TROF LT TUE W/TIMING LOOKING IDEAL AT THIS POINT FOR POTENTIAL SVR OUTBREAK. KINEMATIC/THERMO STRUCTURES STILL LOOKING QUITE FAVORABLE ESP FOR FOCUSED LINEAR SQUALL LINE DVLPMNT W/DEEP BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE AND ML CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG TUE AFTN. STILL SOME INTENSITY DIFFERENCES TO RESOLVE BUT PREFERENCE HOLDS TWD STGR SOLUTIONS KEEPING DEEP UPR TROF INTACT WHICH HAS BEEN THE THEME AMG MED RANGE GUIDANCE FOR DAYS NOW. BEYOND THAT...POST FROPA CONDS AND DECENT CAA DVLP WED LEADING TO SIG COOLER TEMPS WED/THU. OF NOTE IS TREND AWAY FM DEEP ERN US BLOCKING AND WHICH IS MUCH MORE BELIEVABLE COMPARED TO YDA/S DEPICTION. THUS WOULD XPC LATEST TREND TWD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS BY NXT WEEKEND CORRECT AND SOME ADJUSTMENT UPWARD MADE THEN. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IN...NONE. .MI...NONE. .OH...NONE. .LK MI...NONE. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...HICKMAN SKIP...SHORT TERM LONG TERM...HOLSTEN in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 237 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN COLORADO ATTM. STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST OK AND HAVE BEEN SLOW TO EXIT. STRATIFORM PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF THE COMPLEX ACROSS SW KS HAS COOLED/STABILIZED MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR WEST AS CLOUDS EITHER HAVE CLEARED OR ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR. A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY SITS OVER SE COLORADO WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRAILING SOUTHEAST FROM THERE INTO THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A PACIFIC FRONT TRAILS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WEST TX. STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CO AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WILL BE OVER SE COLORADO/FAR SW KS WHERE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS BACKED AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH. THIS WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW AS STRONG LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL MARCH EAST/NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING ACROSS WESTERN KS. THE SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS IS IN QUESTION AS THE LINE MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO KS, BUT FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO USE WHATEVER CAPE IS AVAILABLE ABOVE THE SURFACE. SO WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE MENTION IN ZONES WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED WIND GUST. AFTER LOOKING AT FFG VALUES, I DON'T FEEL WE ARE IN AS BAD A SHAPE FLOODING WISE AS OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. IN ADDITION, THE STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD PASS ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND THE 20KM RUC CONFIRMS THIS, DEVELOPING THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. SO WILL ONCE AGAIN NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH. I CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED FLOODING, BUT I DON'T THINK IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT. THE GOING FORECAST LOOKED QUITE REASONABLE AFTER A QUICK GLANCE AT THE 18Z NAM SO WILL NOT CHANGE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK WARM AND DRY FOR A CHANGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA. TOMORROW'S HIGHS WILL BE A FACTOR OF ELEVATION WITH THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND EXPECTED WITH COOLER READINGS NW TO WARMEST READINGS AT P28. DAYS 3-7... FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE HIGH TEMPERATURES, THEN ANY RAINFALL ON THURSDAY. UPSLOPE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER ANY WARMING AT 700 MB MAY PRECLUDE THIS CHANCE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH GOING FORECAST WITH A LOW POP TO COVER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING LAYER TEMPS. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS STILL COOL ON THE EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 59 83 53 84 / 70 0 0 0 GCK 57 82 52 83 / 70 0 0 0 EHA 56 82 52 83 / 40 0 0 0 LBL 57 84 53 83 / 60 0 0 0 HYS 58 80 53 83 / 70 10 10 0 P28 63 88 60 84 / 70 20 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .KS...NONE. && $$ LACY/06 ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 106 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2005 .DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT STARTING WITH A CLEAN SLATE TODAY...AS THE SURFACE WINDS/CLOUD COVER ARE COMPLICATED BY ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ONTO THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL COMPENSATE FOR RELATIVE LACK OF HEATING...TO PRODUCE MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FURTHER DRIVEN BY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO THE REAR OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED JET STREAK. A MID LEVEL TROF AXIS LIES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO...WITH A SECOND STRONGER GET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF. THE APPROACH OF THIS SECOND STREAK WAS ALREADY CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO BACK AND STRENTHEN. THIS...COMBINED WITH LOW CLOUD BASES WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN COLORADO WILL MOVE EAST TO A YUMA TO GOODLAND TO LEOTI LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY OVER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME COUPLING OF THE TWO JET STREAKS CENTERED AROUND MCCOOK TO HILL CITY DURING THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY THROUGH DEEP LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RUNNING WELL OVER AN INCH...SO WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCHING GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER. MONDAY...EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY BUT WINDY DAY. IT SHOULD FEEL QUITE COOL IN THE MORNING WITH LOWS DIPPING TO THE UPPER 40S WEST AND LOWER 50S EAST. HAVE INCREASED WINDS IN THE FORECAST...AND NIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO LOOK AT A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY. THE RUC13 IS PERHAPS TOO AGRESSIVE PRODUCING 40 KNOT GUSTS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT A ZONE FROM GOODLAND TO MCCOOK WOULD BE A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR WIND ADVISORY WHERE CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. PLACED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE NORTH WHERE THE ETA DEVELOPS SOME LOW-TOPPED INSTABILITY AND SHOWERS. GIVEN THE ADDED CLOUD COVER UP THERE...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES NOT REACH 70 DEGREES IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TUESDAY WILL SEE A LITTLE LESS WIND AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES...EXPECTING MIDDLE 80S MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODELS STILL PRODUCE ANOTHER TROF IN THE ROCKIES...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. GFS SOLUTIONS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN COLORADO MOVING SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT...BUT SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH EVENING UNLESS STRONGER CAPPING OR DRIER SURFACE FLOW WERE TO DEVELOP. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ003...KSZ004...KSZ015...KSZ016. .NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ080...NEZ081. .CO...NONE. && $$ BURKE ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 340 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2005 .DISCUSSION... 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT ERN RDG/WRN TROF UPR AIR PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS. STRG SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR CNVCTN LAST EVNG NOTED MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO THIS AFTN IS DRAGGING MUCH DRIER AIR IN ALF (UPSTREAM PWATS ARND 0.70 INCH IN CONTRAST TO AOA 1.00 INCH EXITING TO THE NE...UPSTREAM H7/5 DWPT DEPRESSIONS 18-28C) IN DRY SLOT/CONFLUENT WSW FLOW/NVA FOLLOWING SHRTWV AXIS AND IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV RDG OVER THE NRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...SFC-H85 DWPTS REMAIN RELATIVELY HI (SFC DWPTS 55 TO 65)... SO QUITE A BIT OF CU HAS DVLPD UNDER THE CLRG IN THE DRY SLOT OVER THE UPR GRT LKS AND IN SOMEWHAT SFC CYC FLOW TO THE SW OF 998MB SFC LO TRACKING THRU NW ONTARIO. A MORE WDSPRD LO CLD DECK NOTED OVER NRN MN CLOSER TO SFC LO WHERE 12Z INL SDNG SHOWS MSTR TRAPPED BLO INVRN ARND H8. BUT DRY ADVCTN ALF HAS PREVENTED ANY SHRA DVLPMNT... AND LO CLD OVER MN HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING EWD ACRS THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF WRN LK SUP. CU GONE COMPLETELY TO THE SW CLOSE TO SFC RDG AXIS FM ND-IA (EVEN THOUGH SFC DWPTS STILL IN THE 50S)...BUT HI CLD IN ADVANCE OF STRG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV OVER THE SRN ROCKIES ROUNDING BASE OF WRN TROF ALREADY SPILLING TOWARD THE UPR MS VALLEY. ANOTHER SHRTWV NOTED OVER THE PAC NW DROPPING ALG WRN SIDE OF UPR TROF...WITH RIBBON OF H3 NW WINDS AS HI AS 100KT ON THE W SIDE OF THE WRN TROF. REMNANTS OF TS ARLENE DRIFTING SLOWLY NNEWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF ERN RDG. MAIN FCST CONCERNS INTO MON ARE TEMPS. THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO SHRA/ TSRA CHCS/TIMING IN ADVANCE OF TROF NOW IN THE SRN ROCKIES. TNGT LOOKS TO BE A QUITE ONE WITH SFC/UPR RDG AXIS/LOWER PWAT TO THE SW SPILLING INTO THE FA. LINGERING CU WL DSPT QUICKLY WITH CONTD DRY ADVCTN AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG. EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE NW ZNS WHERE HIER LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL SDNG MAY CLIP THE KEWEENAW THIS EVNG INTO THE EARLY OVERNGT IN THE ABSENCE OF LK BREEZE CIRCULATION SUBSIDE THE CLD AWAY OVER THE WATER. RDG AXIS SHIFTS TO THE NE LATE...AND INCRSG PWAT FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE RDG AXIS INDICATES SOME HI CLD TO THE SW MAY INCRS A BIT LATER. MODELS SHOW REMAINS OF TS ARLENE REACHING NW INDIANA BY 12Z MON...SO THIS SYS SHUD HAVE NO IMPACT TNGT. LOWEST DWPT OF 52 NR SFC RDG AXIS THIS AFTN PROBABLY A GOOD MEASURE OF LO TEMPS OVER THE COOLER INLAND AREAS. MODELS HAVE TENDED TO SPEED UP TIMING OF SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE AT WEAKENING THE RDG IN PLACE OF THE GRT LKS AS COMBINATION OF SHRTWV NOW IN NW ONTARIO AND REMAINS OF TS ARLENE MOVING INTO THE LWR LKS BATTER DOWN HGTS. BUT CONSIDERING THE HI AMPLITUDE OF THE RDG OVER THE E NOW...TEND TO THINK THE MORE RESILIENT NAM/CNDN/UKMET ARE ON TRACK. BUT NAM'S QPF IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE GFS...WITH MODEL PAINTING SOME PCPN OVER MOST OF THE FA BY 00Z IN RESPONSE TO QUICKLY RETURNING HIER PWAT. MODIFIED NAM FCST SDNG FOR IMT AT 21Z FOR T/TD 80/64 (EXPLICIT MODEL FCST DWPT/CAPE OF 69/1810 J/KG LOOKS A BIT HI) YIELDS 825 J/KG CAPE (NO CIN). HI FRZLVL/WEAK WINDS ALF SUG SVR THREAT ABSENT...BUT WL ADD CHC POPS IN THE AFTN TO THE W. NAM ALSO GENERATES A LTL PCPN OVER THE E CLOSER TO RDG AXIS... PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO CONVERGENT LK BREEZES. BUT EXPLICIT NAM FCST DWPT OF 68 AT ERY (CAPE OF 1110 J/KG) LOOKS ON THE HI SIDE UNDER MORE RESILIENT UPR RDG. MODIFIED NAM FCST SDNG FOR ERY FOR T/TD 82/63 IS 500 J/KG...JUST ENUF FOR ISOLD -SHRA UNDER UPR RDG WITH LK BREEZE CNVGC. UPR LO FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NEWD MON NGT INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY AND THEN ON TUE INTO WI. 00Z CNDN/GFS REFCST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SFC LO POSITION OVER CNTRL WI AT 00Z WED. ALTHOUGH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG MON NGT WL DIMINISH PCPN CHCS...APRCH OF LEFT EXIT OF 70KT H3 JET MAX/UPR DVGC/DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC AS SHOWN ON NAM/GFS ESPECIALLY IN THE 06Z-18Z TIME FRAME AS WELL AS SHARP H85-7 FRONTOGENESIS JUST TO THE N IN CONFLUENCE OF CIRCULATIONS BTWN SFC LO AND HI PRES OVER HUDSON BAY WL TEND TO ENHANCE PCPN CHCS. WL BUMP POPS UP TO HI CHC BASED ON THESE DYNAMICS AND CONFIDENCE SFC LO WL BE FAR ENUF N PER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ENTIRE FA IN SLGT RISK FOR SVR TSRA ON TUE. FACTORS ENHANCING SVR TSRA CHCS WOULD BE APRCHG UPR LO/LOWER FRZG LVL AND WBZ ESPECIALLY FOR THE WI BORDER CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE UPR LO/APRCH OF LEFT EXIT OF UPR JET AND ENHANCED 0-6KM SHEAR (FCST UP TO 40KT OVER THE ERN ZNS AT 12Z TUE)/DRY SLOT UNDER UPR JET THAT MIGHT ALLOW FOR MORE SFC HTG. SVR THREAT APPEARS HIEST OVER THE SRN TIER...CLOSER TO LO PRES TRACK AND DRY SLOT. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER MOVING OUT UPR LO ON WED TO THE S OF BLDG HI PRES OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH SUPPORT FM GFS REFCST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WITH ARRIVAL OF VIGOROUS NEGATIVE DYNAMICS/DRYING...HAVE CUT PCPN CHCS FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS FCST AFTER CONTD HI CHC POPS TUE NGT. BUT MAINTAINED A BIT HIER POPS IN AREAS DOWNWND OF LK SUP ON WED WITH UPSLOPE CYC NE FLOW EVEN AFTER DEPARTURE OF MAIN UPR DYNAMICS. AFTER MIDWEEK STORM SYS EXITS TO THE SE ON WED/THU...EXPECT A DRIER/COOLER PD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS SHOWN BY LATEST NCEP MANUAL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A DISTURBANCE PASSING ARND SAT...PREFER THE DRIER LOOK OF THE NCEP MANUAL GUIDANCE AS MAJORITY OF GFS REFCST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE HI AMPLITUDE UPR RDG THAT WOULD SUPPORT EXPANSIVE HI PRES SHOWN ON THE NCEP MANUAL PROGS. ALTHOUGH THE PRESENCE OF A MORE ZONAL FLOW INDICATED BY A COUPLE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON SAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN CHCS ON SAT...WL MAINTAIN GOING DRY FCST FOR NOW. LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPS ON SAT/SUN AS THE HI PRES CENTER DRIFTS TO THE E AND THE FLOW TURNS SW. SINCE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPS REACHING 15C AS EARLY AS SAT...WL FCST MAX TEMPS ABV GFS MOS GUIDANCE AWAY FM EXPECTED LK COOLING. COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 425 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 .DISCUSSION... BUSY DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER MOVING INTO AREA. SHORT STORY...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LARGE AREA OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY...SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL PRODUCE SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS THIS EVENING AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST. A SECOND WAVE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION SEEN IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THEN ANOTHER ROUND SHOULD BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER WAVE. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA IN THE EVENING WITH UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL IN THE REGION. ONCE THIS MOVES PAST...FINALLY...SHOULD GET A BREAK FROM THE STORY WEATHER. PC && .PREV DISCUSSION... 1222 PM CDT SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HORUS. STORMS FROM THE FIST COMPLEX THIS MORNING ARE NOW JUST ABOUT TO EXIT THE CWA INTO CENTRAL IOWA. CONVECTION TO OUR WEST...IN CENTRAL KANSAS...HAS BEGUN TO ERODE ON ITS EAST SIDE AS IT APPEARS TO BE RUNNING INTO SUBSIDENCE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING COMPLEX. SO...I HAVE PULLED THE LIKELY POPS FROM THE WEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE SOLAR INSULATION THAT WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AS THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE I HAVE LEFT HIGH CHANCE (50%) POPS ACROSS THE KANSAS MISSOURI BORDER. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO TEMPERATURES... PUSHING THEM DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER...AND LIFTING THEM IN THE SOUTHEAST. CUTTER 335 AM... MAIN FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES UNTIL TUESDAY. A LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM NEAR WICHITA NORTHEAST TO LINN COUNTY KANSAS. THE ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS/MID LEVEL FRONT AND DEVELOPED WITHIN THE EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE. AM EXPECTING THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EVER SO SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE WESTERN STORM COMPLEX. FURTHER WEST...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER THE PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS COMPLEX WILL PUSH NORTHEAST TODAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING. HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI WITH THE MORNING/MIDDAY ARRIVAL OF THE STORM COMPLEX AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE ALSO EXHIBITED THIS DOWNWARD TREND. AFTER THE STORM COMPLEX MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THE FORECAST MODELS TRY TO REDEVELOP CONVECTION BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE MOST FAVORED PLACEMENT BEING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED SIMILAR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TODAY...BUT THINK THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE MONDAY. THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT THAT HAS HUNG OUT TO OUR WEST DURING THE LAST WEEK OR SO...WILL FINALLY GET A PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH. A 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO PROGGED TO FOCUS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES AVAILABLE. CONVECTIVE MODE POINTS TO POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS...THIS ADDITIONAL ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE MORE FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MANY COUNTY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AT OR BELOW ONE INCH FOR THREE HOURS. THIS SUPPORTS THE ISSUANCE OF THE FLOOD WATCH ALREADY POSTED FOR NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH INCREASING CAPE AND SHEAR...AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THE DIFFLUENT ZONE OF THE UPPER JET IS FORECAST TO BECOME ORIENTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ENTERING WESTERN IOWA. THIS COULD BECOME THE SET UP FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DEPENDING UPON THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOLLOWING THE EXPECTED MORNING CONVECTION. AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE EXIT OF THESE FEATURES WILL BRING AN END TO OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY MID WEEK. NO CHANGES MADE PAST TUESDAY. STOFLET 952 PM CDT SAT... EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR ENHANCED LIFT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY. WITH SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND RESULTANT LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY. SCHMIT 736 PM CDT SAT... CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING IN BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS AREA CORRELATES WELL WITH RUC SURFACE BASED CAPE ANALYSIS OF 2500+ J/KG AND BULLSEYE OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY. ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. WILL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION EVOLVE INTO A COMPLEX TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFERS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO THIS EVENING...BUT ANTICIPATE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING (WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY THE 18Z NAM). HAVE LOWERED POPS TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. SCHMIT && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES 12 PM CDT SUNDAY TO 12 PM CDT MONDAY. KS...FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES 12 PM CDT SUNDAY TO 12 PM CDT MONDAY. $$ mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1222 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005 .DISCUSSION... SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HORUS. STORMS FROM THE FIST COMPLEX THIS MORNING ARE NOW JUST ABOUT TO EXIT THE CWA INTO CENTRAL IOWA. CONVECTION TO OUR WEST...IN CENTRAL KANSAS...HAS BEGUN TO ERODE ON ITS EAST SIDE AS IT APPEARS TO BE RUNNING INTO SUBSIDENCE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING COMPLEX. SO...I HAVE PULLED THE LIKELY POPS FROM THE WEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE SOLAR INSULATION THAT WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AS THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE I HAVE LEFT HIGH CHANCE (50%) POPS ACROSS THE KANSAS MISSOURI BORDER. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO TEMPERATURES... PUSHING THEM DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER...AND LIFTING THEM IN THE SOUTHEAST. CUTTER && .PREV DISCUSSION... 335 AM... MAIN FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES UNTIL TUESDAY. A LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM NEAR WICHITA NORTHEAST TO LINN COUNTY KANSAS. THE ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS/MID LEVEL FRONT AND DEVELOPED WITHIN THE EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE. AM EXPECTING THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EVER SO SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE WESTERN STORM COMPLEX. FURTHER WEST...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER THE PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS COMPLEX WILL PUSH NORTHEAST TODAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING. HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI WITH THE MORNING/MIDDAY ARRIVAL OF THE STORM COMPLEX AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE ALSO EXHIBITED THIS DOWNWARD TREND. AFTER THE STORM COMPLEX MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THE FORECAST MODELS TRY TO REDEVELOP CONVECTION BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE MOST FAVORED PLACEMENT BEING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED SIMILAR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TODAY...BUT THINK THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE MONDAY. THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT THAT HAS HUNG OUT TO OUR WEST DURING THE LAST WEEK OR SO...WILL FINALLY GET A PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH. A 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO PROGGED TO FOCUS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES AVAILABLE. CONVECTIVE MODE POINTS TO POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS...THIS ADDITIONAL ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE MORE FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MANY COUNTY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AT OR BELOW ONE INCH FOR THREE HOURS. THIS SUPPORTS THE ISSUANCE OF THE FLOOD WATCH ALREADY POSTED FOR NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH INCREASING CAPE AND SHEAR...AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THE DIFFLUENT ZONE OF THE UPPER JET IS FORECAST TO BECOME ORIENTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ENTERING WESTERN IOWA. THIS COULD BECOME THE SET UP FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DEPENDING UPON THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOLLOWING THE EXPECTED MORNING CONVECTION. AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE EXIT OF THESE FEATURES WILL BRING AN END TO OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY MID WEEK. NO CHANGES MADE PAST TUESDAY. STOFLET 952 PM CDT SAT... EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR ENHANCED LIFT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY. WITH SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND RESULTANT LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY. SCHMIT 736 PM CDT SAT... CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING IN BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS AREA CORRELATES WELL WITH RUC SURFACE BASED CAPE ANALYSIS OF 2500+ J/KG AND BULLSEYE OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY. ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. WILL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION EVOLVE INTO A COMPLEX TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFERS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO THIS EVENING...BUT ANTICIPATE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING (WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY THE 18Z NAM). HAVE LOWERED POPS TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. SCHMIT && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES 12 PM CDT SUNDAY TO 12 PM CDT MONDAY. KS...FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES 12 PM CDT SUNDAY TO 12 PM CDT MONDAY. $$ mo