FXUS63 KFGF 210745
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
245 AM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004

.DISCUSSION...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH CENTER AROUND STC ATTM AND CONTINUES 
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST. WEAK RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE 
WESTERN FA. 

FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE WARMING TREND TODAY AND 
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH ETA FOR DETAILS. 
MODERATE 850 MB WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS 
THE REGION. HOWEVER...BELIEVE INHERITED GRIDS WERE A LITTLE TOO WARM 
FOR SFC TEMPERATURES TODAY. THUS...HAVE REDUCED HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES 
ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASING CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO CUT 
DOWN INSOLATION SLIGHTLY. 

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS HIGH CONTINUES TO CUT 
OFF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. THE 330K 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE BRUSHES 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES OVERNIGHT. A 50 KNOT 850 MB LOW 
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET ALSO FORMS OVER THIS AREA. 850-700MB LAPSE 
RATES DO REACH 8+C/KM IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THUS...AGREE WITH SPC 
THAT THERE WILL BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS 
THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST MAY OCCUR WITH THE 
ELEVATED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AT THE PRESENT TIME IT IS NOT WORTH 
INCLUDING SEVERE WORDING IN THE ZONES AND GRIDS. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD LOOKS GOOD WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS. 

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR MONDAY 
EVENING AND TUESDAY. HAVE ADDED MORE PRECIPITATION AS THE GULF 
SHOULD BE OPEN WITH THIS SYSTEM. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN STILL LOOKS 
ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SENDS A 
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 
 
&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

BRAMER