AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1116 AM CST MON MAR 1 2004 .DISCUSSION... LATEST UPDATE ADJUSTED PCPN AND TEMP TRENDS SOMEWHAT. NRLY STACKED UPR LOW SLOWLY CROSSING MO RVR. VISIBLE STLT IMAGERY NOW SHOWS SC/CU ACRS ENTIRE FA WITH MID/HIGH CLDS OVR ALL BUT NRN PTNS. 16Z SFC ANLYS PLACES FILLING LOW BTWN KOLU-KFET WITH ISALLOBARIC COUPLET RIGHT ACRS IA. OCCLUDED THEN WRMFNT NOTED FM LOW TWRD KALO INTO NRN IL. MSTR AXIS NOW E OF FA MAINLY INTO IL. 15Z RUC CONTS TO PUSH DEEPER INSTABILITY IN TERMS OF K INDICES...SHOWALTERS AND MID LVL THETA-E LAPSE RATES OFF TO OUR N AND E SO DEEP...USING THE TERM LOOSELY...CONVECTIVE THREAT IS DMSHG. VRY MINOR SFC BASED POTENTIAL STILL THERE ACRS FAR ERN SXNS HWVR WITH SBCAPES UP TO ARND 500 J/KG AND MINIMAL CIN...BUT MAINLY AFFECTING DVN FA RATHER THAN OURS...SO FEEL SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK MAY BE A BIT TOO FAR W. KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN FCST TO BLEND INTO OUTLOOK...BUT APPS THAT CHC DCRG. BETTER CHCS LOOK TO BE FM MS RVR EWD. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS. WL SEE LTL CHG WRN PTNS AS SFC LOW NRS...AND XPC LTL ADDITIONAL REBOUND IN ERN PTNS AS WE HAVE DVLPD LOW CLDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. KEPT HITTING WNDS FAIRLY HARD...SPCLLY SRN HALF S OF FNT WHERE WNDS ARE QUITE GUSTY. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SMALL ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 718 PM MST MON MAR 1 2004 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. WINDS HAVE ALREADY DRAMATICALLY DECREASED...AND ARE DIFFERING A LITTLE FROM THE FORECAST. RUC IS FORECASTING MORE OF A DRAINAGE WIND...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. SINCE RUC IS HANDLING THE WINDS VERY WELL AT THIS TIME...WILL UPDATE THE GRIDS WITH IT. FORECAST MINS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE. HOWEVER...WILL UPDATE THE HOURLY TRENDS ON IT AND THE DEWPOINTS. DAY CREW WAS A LITTLE WARY ABOUT FOG FORMING. HOWEVER... LATEST DATA WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NOT HAVING IT IN. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1050 AM MST MON MAR 1 2004 .UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE TEMPORAL WORDING AND MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND/TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 200 AM MST MON MAR 1 2004 FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINDS TODAY AS WELL AS THE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FROM THE RECENT SNOW. IN THE MID TERM FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL CANCEL BLIZZARD WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT ZONE ISSUANCE AND REPLACE THEM WITH A WIND ADVISORY. AT 09Z LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE MAP SHOW THE SURFACE LOW IS NOW IN THE HASTINGS FORECAST AREA WITH WRAPAROUND SNOW EXTENDING BACK INTO EASTERN COLORADO. WIND GUSTS AT 09Z REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE WITH A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS. TODAY/TONIGHT...FOCUS TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS. AS OUR WOUND-UP LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD MODEST 6 HOURLY PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW RIGHT BEHIND IT. 850 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS. RUC AND VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE WINDS ALSO SUGGEST THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET OR VERY CLOSE TO IT. WILL CONTINUE TO GET SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS TODAY AND WITH SOME SNOWCOVER AROUND WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR THE VARIOUS MOS/2M GUIDANCE NUMBERS. FOR TONIGHT AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH NOSES INTO THE AREA...LOWERING WIND SPEEDS CONSIDERABLY. GIVEN SOME SNOWCOVER AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES. TUESDAY...ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 40S LOOK GOOD WHEN COMPARING THE VARIOUS 2M/MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS AGAINST THE 850 TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK. AS USUAL...THE EAST SHOULD BE COOLER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO SURFACE HIGH AND TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REACH THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG WILL TRY AND REACH THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA PER ETA BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY. ETA PAINTS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE AS DOES HPC. GFS A BIT OVERDONE. WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS PER GFS WHILE THE ETA/UKMET/ECMWF PUSH THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. ETA ALSO TRIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT 850 AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST MORE OF A LIQUID FORECAST THAN FROZEN. I DONT HAVE A REAL GOOD FEEL FOR WHAT WILL HAPPEN SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HPC QPF AND ETA P-TYPE ALGORITHMS. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE THE FORECAST AREA GETS IN BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST AND APPROACHING UPPER/SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN TEXAS. ETAS CLOUD SHIELD PER RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS LOOKS A BIT BETTER THAN THE GFS BUT GIVEN DIFFERENCES THAT WILL LIKELY SHOW UP FROM RUN TO RUN HAVE GONE ETA SOLUTION WITH A MIXED PRECIP TYPE POSSIBLE. THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN LATEST ETA/GFS TRACK AT TIMING OF THE 500 UPPER LOW. GFS AND PREVIOUS RUN ARE FASTER WHILE EXPERIMENTAL ETA IS SLOWER. QPF FORECASTS FROM 12Z-00Z (FRIDAY) KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS DRY AS WELL BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND GFS SUGGESTION THAT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO... PUTTING US IN UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. FRIDAY...DIFFERENCE SHOW UP AGAIN WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH AXIS. GFS AS USUAL A BIT WETTER WITH PRECIP THAN THE EXPERIMENTAL ETA. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE SILENT 10 PERCENT POPS IN TACT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NO CHANGES MADE. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL ZONES. NE...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL ZONES. CO...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL ZONES. && $$ DDT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1045 PM EST MON MAR 1 2004 .SHORT TERM... MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE FOG AND PCPN TRENDS. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED MAIN SHRTWV/VORT OVER NRN IL ACCELERATING TO THE ENE AS THE H5 LOW BEGINS TO OPEN UP. NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF DEFORMATION BAND OF SHOWERS FROM WI HAD STALLED WITH PCPN BARELY REACHING KMNM. NEAREST ISOLD TSRA WITH THE SHRTWV WERE ALSO WELL TO THE SE OVER NRN LWR MI. WEAKER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED QVECTOR CONV OVER UPR MI SUPPORTED SOME -RA OVER NW UPR MI AT THE SFC...TROF EXTENDED FROM CNTRL UPR MI INTO CNTRL WITH NW FLOW IN ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH DENSE FOG PREVAILED IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH VSBYS AOB 1/4SM...AREAS WITH DOWNSLOPE SRLY FLOW (NEAR MARQUETTE) WERE LEAST AFFECTED. NW UPSLOPE FLOW INTO WRN UPR MI OFF OF LK SUPERIOR HAS ALSO REINFORCED THE DENSE FOG. RADAR TRENDS AND ETA/RUC SUGGEST RAIN WITH SRN SRHTWV WILL JUST BRUSH LOCATIONS ALONG LK MI WHILE PCPN OVER THE NW MOVES LITTLE. OTHERWISE...SOME PATCHY -DZ MAY PERSIST IN AREAS BTWN BATCHES OF DEEPER MOISTURE. AS THE MID LVL AND SFC LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE ENE AND WINDS VEER TO NW...EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE BY LATE TONIGHT OVER MOST UPR MI. SO...WL LEAVE GOING DENSE FOG ADVY IN PLACE. COLDER AIR LAGGED CONSIDERABLE FARTHER UPSTREAM WITH TEMPS NEAR 32F AND ANY -SN NORTH OF KINL-CYQT. TEMP DEWPOINTS IN THE MN ARROWHEAD WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. 00Z ETA SNDGS AND LOW LVL THICKNESS WOULD BRING PCPN CHANGEOVER IN THE WEST BTWN 06Z-09Z BUT MAY BE A LITTLE EARLY GIVEN LACK OF COLD AIR IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM. WITH ONLY WEAK UPR LVL SUPPORT AVBL AND NO CONTRIBUTION FROM THE LAKE...ANY SNOW AMOUNTS INTO NW UPR MI LATE TONIGHT SHOULD REAMIN AOB 1 INCH. JLB .PREV DISCUSSION...FOR LATER PERIODS. TUE...SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW STALLS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AS UPPER FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF UPPER SUPPORT...FLURRIES IS ABOUT ALL THAT CAN OCCUR. SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY STILL OCCUR THOUGH FROM ALGER/DELTA COUNTIES EASTWARD UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ALOFT GETS THERE IN THE LATE MORNING. DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TEMPS IN THE MID 30S STILL SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THAT COLD ADVECTION IS NOT THAT STRONG. IN FACT...AREAS ALONG THE BAY OF GREEN BAY MAY TOP OUT NEAR 40 DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WNW WINDS. TUE NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...CURRENTLY ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES...MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE. QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS OFF THE ETA (E.G. 925MB) SAY THAT THE U.P. WILL STAY CLOUDY. CURRENT OBS ALONG THE ROCKIES SHOW CLOUDY SKIES WITH IFR CIGS. SO WILL LEAVE SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. GIVEN THAT MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED ABOVE 925MB...FIGURE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO LOW TO SUPPORT ANY SNOW OR FLURRIES. THEREFORE THESE WILL BE REMOVED OUT OF THE FCST. WED...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST AS A SHRTWV TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING THIS SHRTWV TROUGH TO REACH UPPER MICHIGAN UNTIL WED NIGHT. MEANWHILE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED DOWN NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA AT 12Z WED. THIS UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST DURING THE DAY...ALLOWING PRESSURES TO FALL OVER WEST TEXAS. THE SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE THE ONE THAT AFFECTS THE U.P. IN THE EXTENDED. WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE HIGH/AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS REBOUND...BUT WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE DUE TO EXISTING LOW LEVEL STRATUS...UPPER 30S WILL BE AS HIGH AS TEMPS CAN GET. WED NIGHT INTO THU...SHRTWV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SWING THROUGH THE U.P. DURING THE NIGHT...BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WITH IT. QPF AMOUNTS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...CONSIDERING ALL THE MOISTURE IS CAUGHT UP WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NONETHELESS...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS AND THEN ACROSS ONTARIO ON THU. WITH 850MB TEMPS FROM -10 TO -14C...WL ALSO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30 WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT...EXCEPT ALONG THE LAKESHORES WHERE NE WINDS PULL WARMER AIR OFF SUPERIOR. EXTENDED (FRI THROUGH MON)...PATTERN STILL UNCERTAIN AS MULTIPLE STRONG SHRTWVS RACE ACROSS THE PACIFIC. ANOTHER UNCERTAIN ITEM IS THE TRACK OF THU NIGHT/FRI SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND THE KEY APPEARS TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. THE MODELS WITH THE STRONG RIDGE...THE ECMWF AND UKMET...TAKE THE LOW ACROSS THE MACKINAC STRAITS FRI AFTERNOON. THE 00Z...06Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS HAVE WEAKER RIDGES...THUS THE LOW GOES ACROSS SE LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINITY...WL LEAVE FRIDAY FORECAST ALONE AND CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO IN CASE THE FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS PAN OUT. POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. BEYOND FRI...WL FOLLOW HPC FORECAST WHICH WAS A ECMWF/06Z GFS BLEND. SHRTWV OVER ROCKIES THAT KICKS THE TROUGH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES DEVELOPS A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS SAT...WHICH THEN MOVES ACROSS OHIO ON SUN. THIS SYSTEM WL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PREVENT ANY SNOW OVER THE U.P.. THEN AS THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...REACHING MANITOBA SUN MORNING AND NORTHERN ONTARIO MON MORNING. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO UPPER MI SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COLD ADVECTION ON MON. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SNOW ON MON TOO GIVEN UNCERTAINITY ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST. TEMPS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW NORMAL. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MIZ001>003-009-084 && $$ AJ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 945 AM EST MON MAR 01 2004 .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... 12Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR LOW/992MB SFC LO OVER ERN NB DRIFTING SLOWLY ENE INTO UPR RDG OVER THE ERN CONUS. WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR (12Z PWAT 0.81 INCH AT GRB) WELL IN ADVANCE OF SFC/UPR LO NOTED LIFTING NWD THRU LK MI AND NE WI...WITH AREA OF LGT TO MDT RA IN RRQ UPR DVGC OF 100KT H3 JET MAX NR GRB MOVING INTO THE SCNTRL ZNS AT 14Z. OTRW...THERE IS NO PCPN ACRS THE FA ATTM AS 12Z APX SDNG SHOWS AIRMASS AHEAD OF MSTR SLUG RATHER DRY...BUT SKIES ARE CLDY WITH SFC TEMPS 34 TO 39. MAIN FCST CONCERN TDAY IS RA TRENDS. 12Z RUC/06Z ETA AND GFS SHOW OCCLUDED CYC IN NB MOVING TO NE IA BY 00Z. H3 JET MAX PROGGED TO LIFT N THRU CNTRL CWA...WITH ACCOMPANYING UPR DVGC THUS IMPACTING THE ECNTRL FA MORE THAN THE FAR W. ALTHOUGH GENERAL ISENTROPIC LIFT/DPVA AND DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF APRCHG CYC WL CAUSE RA TO BREAK OUT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THRU THE AFTN...XPCT THE MOST WDSPRD/HEAVIER RA TO IMPACT THE ECNTRL ZNS UNDER THE BETTER UPR DVGC. RA AMTS OVER THE FAR ERN CWA MAY BE LIMITED INITIALLY BY ANTECEDENT DRY AIR AS DEPICTED ON APX SDNG... BUT PERSISTENCE OF DYNAMICS SHUD EVENTUALLY SATURATE THE AIRMASS THERE. WDSPRD CLD COVER AND RA WL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP INCRS...BUT SFC TEMPS ALREADY ABV 32...SO NO FZRA CONCERNS CONSIDERING RATHER WARM SURFACES DUE TO RECENT WARMTH. RECENT COORDINATION WITH NCRFC SUGS EXPECTED QPF WL NOT PRESENT ANY SGNFT HYDRO PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING RA WL FALL WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S TO NR 40 TO LIMIT RUNOFF. LATEST RIVER LEVEL OBS INDICATE LTL IN THE WAY OF RISE THE LAST 24 HRS...AND CURRENT LEVELS WELL BLO FLOOD OR EVEN BANKFULL STAGE. DRIER AIR PROGGED TO MOVE IN AFTER 21Z ONCE UPR JET/DVGC AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC LIFTS N. MDDELS SHOW SHOWALTER INDEX FALLING TO ABOUT +1C TO 2C TOWARD 00Z ACRS THE SRN TIER ZNS AS COLDER H5 AIR OVERSPREADS LINGERING H85 THERMAL RDG...SO HAVE OPTED TO ALLOW MENTION OF ISOLD -TSRA IN THAT AREA EVEN THOUGH DRYING ALF/LOSS OF BETTER DYNAMICS WL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR CNVCTN. KC .LONG TERM... TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BY 06Z AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN LWR MI. WITH MID LVL SLOT AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER MID-LVL LAPSE RATES (APPROACHING 7C/KM) ESPECIALLY OVR SCNTRL AND SE COUNTIES WILL KEEP IN MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. MODELS STILL HINT THAT DEFORMATION BAND ON BACK SIDE OF SFC LOW WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS WRN AND NCNTRL UPR MI BEFORE LIFTING NE TUE MORNING. MODEL SNDGS AND LOW-LVL THCKNS INDICATE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEHIND OCCLUDED COLD FRONT. WITH ANYWHERE FROM .1 TO .2 INCH OF MODEL QPF...WOULD EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW OVR W AND NCNTRL COUNTIES. LLVL THCKNS OVER EASTERN ZONES SUGGEST PCPN THERE SHOULD STAY LIQUID...KEPT IN A MENTION OF DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SCT RW ALTHOUGH ETA MODEL SNDGS NOT INDICATING AS MUCH DRY AIR ALOFT TO DISRUPT SNOW GROWTH PROCESS. KEPT IN A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...DZ OR FZDZ FOR SCNTRL ZONES LATE. AS FOR HYDRO ISSUES...WITH .25 TO .40 INCH OF QPF PREDICTED BY MODELS SHOULD SEE SOME RISES IN RIVER LEVEL DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT RUN OFF...ALTHOUGH WOULDN'T EXPECT ANYTHING TOO DRAMATIC. TUESDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREAS BEHIND SFC LOW AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO -6C TO -8C...NOT YET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT. WITH LTL OR NO SYNOPTIC SUPPPORT AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT WOULD EXPECT ONLY SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AS WK RDGG MOVES OVER AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. PERHAPS COULD SEE SOME WAA LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WED AFT AS SHRTWV APPROACHES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. OTHERWISE FAIRLY QUIET WX. VOSS && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 734 AM EST MON MAR 1 2004 .UPDATE... RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS AND RUC 700MB THETA-E ADVECTION POINT TO RAINFALL EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY 15Z. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO BRING RAIN INTO ALL BUT THE THUMB COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD PRECIP OFF IN THE THUMB UNTIL AFTER 15Z. IN ADDITION...WITH TEMPERATURE AT MOP 28 COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA IN BAY/MIDLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 9 AM. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM GIVEN FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN AND INITIAL LIGHT NATURE OF PRECIP. OKEEFE && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 140 AM...UNSETTLED WEEK AHEAD...WITH RAIN BEING THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER TYPE. ANOTHER MILD DAY TODAY AS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 50S. UNFORTUNATELY...WE WILL HAVE SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTEND WITH AS A SPOKE OF ENERGY (CURRENTLY OVER OKLAHOMA) AND MOISTURE AXIS MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH MOISTURE SURGING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS A 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL WORK IT'S WAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER WERE PRETTY MUCH CONFINED TO THE COLD CORE LOW...WITH EVEN FEW HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE REPORTS NOTED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA EARLY YESTERDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN FIRING UP ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS/ARKANSAS...OUT AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS THE MENTIONED ENERGY/WAVE. FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THE SHOWALTER INDEX GOING NEGATIVE IS THE NGM. HOWEVER...CLOSER INSPECTION OF THE MESOETA SHOWS THE NOSE OF THE WARM AIR COMING IN AROUND 925 MB...WHERE COMPUTED LI'S DO GO NEGATIVE BY EVENING. THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HERE IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AS ANY DAYTIME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE LOW (-24 TO -28 C AT 500 MB) QUICKLY DIMINISHES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO TRACK NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO ONTARIO IN IT'S WAKE. THE PUSH OF COLD AIR TO THE SOUTH APPEARS TO BE WEAK...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY. EUROPEAN/CANADIAN/NOGAPS/UKMET/GFS ALL NOW SHOWING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CHICAGO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THIS MORE WESTERN TRACK WILL CALL FOR ALL RAIN INTO FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A REAL GOOD SOAKING...AS PW VALUES CLIMB ABOVE 1.25 INCHES. WITH A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE (YESTERDAY'S 00Z GFS RUN WAS SIMILAR)...WILL BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RAISE TEMPS FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WILL LEAVE OUT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO ADD THEM TO THE FORECAST IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK AS VIGOROUS. DESPITE THE FACT MOST/ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS WARM/RAINY SCENARIO...THIS IS NOT A DONE DEAL. MODELS GENERALLY HAVE TOUGH TIME WITH CUTOFF LOWS EXTENDING SO FAR SOUTH (NORTHERN MEXICO). THERE IS A BIAS AT TIMES OF LIFTING/OPENING UP THESE SYSTEMS TOO FAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS SYSTEM MAY STAY PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS/MEXICO A LITTLE LONGER. THIS COULD OPEN THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM LATE IN THE WORK WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...PRODUCING MORE OF A SNOWY SCENARIO FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .CLIMATE... UNOFFICIAL FEBRUARY NUMBERS ARE IN. WHERE WAS THE SNOW??? THE DETROIT METRO AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMP WAS 28.5 DEGREES...WHICH WAS 1.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE MONTH WAS ONLY 0.9 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE 3RD LEAST SNOWIEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD. THE RECORD FOR LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW IN FEBRUARY IS A TRACE WHICH OCCURRED IN 1998. THE FLINT BISHOP AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMP WAS 24.9 DEGREES...WHICH WAS 1.1 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE MONTH WAS ONLY 6.1 INCHES...WHICH IS 3.3 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SF EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 555 AM EST MON MAR 01 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TODAY THEN PCPN TYPE AND CHCS TONIGHT. WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS UPR RDG OVER THE GRT LAKES WITH A TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVR THE CNTRL PLAINS. WK SHRTWV LOBE ROTATING UP FROM CLOSED LOW LIFTING BAND OF -RA UP THROUGH WI EARLY THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR. HOWEVER VERY DRY AIR OVR UPR GRT LAKES AS EVIDENT ON 00Z KAPX AND KGRB SNDGS IS NOW BREAKING APART THIS BAND AS IT REACHES INTO FAR NRN WI. EXPECT ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OVER WI BDR COUNTIES FROM THIS INITIAL BAND. TODAY...MAIN EVENT LOOK LIKE IT WILL TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS MAIN SHRTWV NOW OVER ERN KS ROTATES UP INTO WI AND LWR MI...PER MODEL FCST. STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET OVER SE WI AND LAKE MI IN LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF 120 KT UPR JET WILL FOCUS MOISTURE AND LLVL CONVERGENCE TO ALLOW MAIN BAND OF PCPN NOW OVR ERN IL...INDIANA AND LAKE MI TO LIFT INTO UPR MI THIS AFT. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL FAVOR ERN HALF OF UPR MI FOR CATEGORICAL RAIN WHILE RAIN WILL BE MORE SCT WEST OF A KMQT-KIMT LINE. WENT ONLY SLIGHTLY ABV GUIDANCE TEMPS AS THICKENING CLDS AND ERLY FLOW WILL NOT FAVOR MUCH OF A REBOUND IN TEMPS AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BY 06Z AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN LWR MI. WITH MID LVL SLOT AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER MID-LVL LAPSE RATES (APPROACHING 7C/KM) ESPECIALLY OVR SCNTRL AND SE COUNTIES WILL KEEP IN MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. MODELS STILL HINT THAT DEFORMATION BAND ON BACK SIDE OF SFC LOW WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS WRN AND NCNTRL UPR MI BEFORE LIFTING NE TUE MORNING. MODEL SNDGS AND LOW-LVL THCKNS INDICATE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEHIND OCCLUDED COLD FRONT. WITH ANYWHERE FROM .1 TO .2 INCH OF MODEL QPF...WOULD EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW OVR W AND NCNTRL COUNTIES. LLVL THCKNS OVER EASTERN ZONES SUGGEST PCPN THERE SHOULD STAY LIQUID...KEPT IN A MENTION OF DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SCT RW ALTHOUGH ETA MODEL SNDGS NOT INDICATING AS MUCH DRY AIR ALOFT TO DISRUPT SNOW GROWTH PROCESS. KEPT IN A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...DZ OR FZDZ FOR SCNTRL ZONES LATE. AS FOR HYDRO ISSUES...WITH .25 TO .40 INCH OF QPF PREDICTED BY MODELS SHOULD SEE SOME RISES IN RIVER LEVEL DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT RUN OFF...ALTHOUGH WOULDN'T EXPECT ANYTHING TOO DRAMATIC. TUESDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREAS BEHIND SFC LOW AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO -6C TO -8C...NOT YET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT. WITH LTL OR NO SYNOPTIC SUPPPORT AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT WOULD EXPECT ONLY SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AS WK RDGG MOVES OVER AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. PERHAPS COULD SEE SOME WAA LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WED AFT AS SHRTWV APPROACHES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. OTHERWISE FAIRLY QUIET WX. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 320 PM CST MON MAR 1 2004 .DISCUSSION... GETTING RID OF ONE SYSTEM AND GEARING UP FOR THE NEXT. DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WEAKENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS LATER THIS EVENING. FROM NOW TILL MID EVENING THE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY. LOW CLOUDS A BIT TRICKY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB COLD POOL WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A LOWER DECK TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST BY THE RUC AND ETA 925MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS TO SURGE SOUTH AT THE SAME TIME THE STRATOCU IS LIFTING NORTHEAST. NET EFFECT...MAY SEE SOME CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 36 BUT LOWER DECK FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE MO RIVER BY 12Z TUE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF/SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ETA/MAV MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. ALTHOUGH NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KS/NORTHERN MO AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TRANSPORTS INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS WEAK VORTICITY LOBE SHEARS NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON WEDNESDAY THEY ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RAIN IN STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE WELL NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO TIGHTENED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING AS CLOUDS/RAIN KEEP READINGS WITHIN A 5-10 DEGREE RANGE. MJ A SOGGY FINISH TO THE WORK-WEEK IS FORECAST...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE EJECTION OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST SHORTWAVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY...AIDED BY MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS SHORTWAVE APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LOW CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN EXTREME NORTHERN MISSOURI ON THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT. HAVE GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS...ALTHOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING OVERNIGHT. LS && .PREV DISCUSSION... 330 AM... THE FOCUS OF THIS MORNINGS FORECAST IS ON LARGE CLOSED LOW SWEEPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...AND ITS EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TODAY. SECONDARY CONCERN IS ON THE POTENTIAL RETURN OF STORMY WEATHER WEDNESDAY ON INTO THURSDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONUS DOMINATED BY A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH IS DEFINED BY TWO VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST HAS CARVED OUT A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...WHICH IS LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN ENTERING THE WEST COAST OVER OREGON. THE CLOSED LOW LIFTING OUT OF NEBRASKA HAS BROUGHT A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT TO EAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. LATER THIS MORNING MOISTURE IN THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL ROTATE INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OR POSSIBLY SNOW DURING THE COOL MORNING HOURS. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL EXPAND ALONG THE MISSOURI IOWA BORDER AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE RANGING ABOVE 50KT ON THE VAD WIND PROFILER THIS MORNING...AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD COVER THAT WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING SHOULD PREVENT ENOUGH MIXING TO TRANSPORT THOSE WINDS TO THE SURFACE. SO WHILE I EXPECT WINDS TO BE BLUSTERY TODAY...THEY SHOULD RANGE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN MIDWEST THANKS TO THE SECOND SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE EJECTING BITS AND PIECES OF ITSELF OUT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL PREFERENCE FOR THIS SCENARIO IS ON THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE UKMET/EXTRAPOLATED ETA. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE DISPLAYING ITS BIAS OF HOLDING THE SHORTWAVES TRACK A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH. THE MAIN EFFECT THIS HAS HAD ON THE FORECAST WAS TO SHIFT OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP FROM WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FIRST SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...TO THURSDAY WHEN THE OPEN WAVE SWINGS THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. I LIMITED THE LIKELY THUNDERSTORM POPS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WERE THE BEST THETA-E ADVECTION LOOKS TO OCCUR. DESPITE MY PREFERENCE FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THE MID WEEK SYSTEMS...I HAVE BUMPED HIGH AND LOW TEMPS UP A LITTLE GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE COLDER AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN BOTTLED UP NORTH OF THE DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL JET. CUTTER && .PREV DISCUSSION... 1029 PM SUN... HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND WILL UPDATE TEXT PRODUCTS SHORTLY...TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT QUICKLY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY MORE PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE AREA THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI AS MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOSER. NRR && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...NONE. .KS...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1050 AM CST MON MAR 1 2004 .DISCUSSION... JUST SENT UPDATE TO FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT GIVEN THE WARM START THIS MORNING. FORECAST FOR WINDS IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...STAYING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SPC MESOANALYIS AT 16Z SHOWING MUCAPES AROUND 500J/KG WITH IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PARAMETERS. RUC SHOWING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER IL/NERN MO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT UNDER STRONG 700-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...SO SHOULD SEE SOME TSRA DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS THIS AFTN. AGREE WITH SPC'S SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. LEFT THE REST OF THE FORECAST THE SAME. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...NONE. .IL...NONE. $$ BRITT mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 857 PM CST MON MAR 1 2004 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING...NO UPDATE PLANNED TO TEXT PRODUCTS. CIRRUS PLUME WILL MAINTAIN PC SKIES OVERNIGHT. ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WX TUE NIGHT INTO THU. EARLY EVENING SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES AT LEAST 2 AND POSSIBLY 3 BOUNDARIES TO OUR S. SOUTHERNMOST FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR TX COAST NE-WARD ACROSS LA-MS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT - BARELY MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT - RUNS FROM NE NM TO NEAR LBB...S OF DFW...INTO S AND E AR. DEWPOINT GRADIENT HAS BECOME MORE GRADUAL IN BETWEEN...BUT BASED ON MESOSCALE MODEL FIELDS ONE COULD DRAW A BROAD DRYLINE IN BETWEEN...FROM S AR AND NW LA INTO S TX. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THINGS WILL BECOME SIMPLER BY TUE...AS NORTHERNMOST FRONT DISSIPATES WHILE DRYLINE AND STATIONARY FRONT CONSOLIDATE BY 12Z FROM S TX NE-WARD TO VICINITY NW LA AND LOWER MS VALLEY. RUC/GFS ARE A BIT FARTHER S THAN MESOETA TUE MORNING. WHEREVER IT SETS UP...SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET STAGE FOR INITIATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AS GULF MOISTURE - THIS TIME UNMODIFIED BY COLD INTRUSION - LIFTS N OVER FRONT IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SW SYSTEM. PRECIP MAY BREAK OUT BY LATE TUE OVER TX...BUT MORE LIKELY OVER NTX AND OK TUE NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND LIFTING VIA 850MB SPEED CONVERGENCE. PW VALUES PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1-1.5 INCHES BY WED...NOT BAD FOR EARLY MARCH. WITH GOOD MOISTURE SOURCE AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW INVOLVED...EXPECT HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN TO BE THE MAIN STORY. STORM TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES - PER HPC AND MODEL QPFS - LOOKS PLAUSIBLE MAINLY OVER S AND E PARTS OF CWA. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...MAIN CONCERN MAY BE ELEVATED HAILERS AS WE ARE LEANING TOWARD A FARTHER S FRONTAL POSITION WED-THU. RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION SHOULD BE AN OBSTACLE THAT WILL MAKE THE COOLER SFC AIR TOUGH TO CHASE OUT THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON. WILL BE A LOT MORE INTERESTING LATE WED IF MESOETA ENDS UP RIGHT AND FRONT LIFTS N INTO NTX-OK. 24 325 PM CST MON MAR 1 2004 NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING WEATHER TO SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST BEFORE LIFTING EAST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN US/NORTHERN MEXICO AROUND MID WEEK. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WILL THIS SYSTEM AS WEEKEND COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG TEXAS COAST BEFORE RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LLJ INCREASES. ETA BUFR SOUNDINGS FORECAST ELEVATED CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000J BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF FA. APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE FROM SOUTHERN OK/EASTERN TX COUNTIES INTO EASTERN PARTS OF FA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ETA LIKELY TO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING SURFACE WARM FRONT TOO FAR NORTH SO WARM SECTOR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST. WITH SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA APPEARS THAT SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF AREA WILL HAVE GOOD CHANCE AT HEAVY RAINFALL. DRYLINE TO PUSH EAST ON THURSDAY WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF FA. NEXT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN PART OF AREA. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. APPEAR AFTER THIS SYSTEM THAT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH AROUND NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FCSTID = 6 OKC 34 60 45 57 / 00 00 60 70 HBR 31 60 46 56 / 00 00 50 60 SPS 37 62 53 65 / 00 10 60 70 GAG 27 54 40 51 / 00 00 40 40 PNC 31 54 41 50 / 00 00 50 60 DUA 37 64 54 65 / 00 10 60 70 .OUN... OK...NONE TX...NONE ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 952 PM EST MON MAR 1 2004 .DISCUSSION... REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING FRONTAL PRECIP OVER EASTERN KY AND TN DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. FRESH 0Z MESOETA AND RUC SHOW THE BAND TO DRIFT INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIANS MAINLY BETWEEN 09-12Z. WILL SLOW DOWN TIMING FOR THE UPDATE AND MAKE POPS HIGHLY TERRAIN DEPENDANT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO CARRY POPS...WITH NO MENTION EAST. MESOETA SHOWS H85 WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 KTS WILL WORK EAST OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. WILL EXPECT THE PEAKS TO RATHER WINDY AND SHOWERS MAY MIX WINDS FURTHER. WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE MTNS BY 5 MPH WHICH WILL PUSH INTO THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY RANGE. WITH WINDS REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BL MIXING AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL TWEAK TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY...IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST FLP AND MAV GUIDANCE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GSP 52 67 50 70 / 20 40 30 20 AND 54 68 50 70 / 30 40 30 20 CLT 53 68 50 70 / 10 30 20 20 HKY 51 65 48 68 / 30 40 20 40 AVL 49 63 46 65 / 40 60 30 40 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ NED sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 830 PM CST MON MAR 1 2004 .DISCUSSION...MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE STATIONARY FRONT LIES BETWEEN HARLINGEN AND MCALLEN EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS WILLACY COUNTY. WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY...PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. WILL UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS TO INCLUDE FOG TONIGHT. && .MARINE...CONDITIONS AT BUOY020 HAVE DIPPED BELOW SCA LEVELS WITH AN EASTERLY WIND AROUND 8 KTS WITH SWELLS AROUND 6 FT. THE WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE SWELLS TO FALL DOWN INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE LATER TONIGHT. SO WILL REMOVE THE SCA HEADLINE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND WILL REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION. && .AVIATION...CIGS AROUND THE EASTERN RGV AIRPORTS ARE LOWERING AS THE SE SURFACE CONTINUES TO PUSH MOIST AIR IN OFF OF THE GULF OF MEX. ALSO VSBYS HAVE BEGUN TO LOWER IN THE SE FLOW. HOWEVER...A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS AT THE MFE AIRPORT AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED BETWEEN WESLACO AND HRL. THE SURFACE FLOW AS MFE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ALLOWING CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER SOMEWHAT. THE OVERALL TAF TREND LOOKS OK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES REQUIRED ATTM. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM RIO GRANDE CITY INTO SOUTHERN KENEDY COUNTY AND STILL PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTHEAST. PROGRESS HAS SLOWED SOME THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC AND MESOETA STALL THE BOUNDARY AROUND 00Z THEN BEGIN ITS RETURN TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TODAY THE RESULT OF THE FRONT COLLIDING WITH A LONG LIVED STREAMER. MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW CONFINED ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...61 AVIATION/MARINE/MESO...60 THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 300 PM CST MON MAR 1 2004 .SHORT TERM...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM RIO GRANDE CITY INTO SOUTHERN KENEDY COUNTY AND STILL PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTHEAST. PROGRESS HAS SLOWED SOME THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC AND MESOETA STALL THE BOUNDARY AROUND 00Z THEN BEGIN ITS RETURN TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TODAY THE RESULT OF THE FRONT COLLIDING WITH A LONG LIVED STREAMER. MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW CONFINED ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT .LONG TERM...LONG TERM FORECAST RESTS ON THE TRACK OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NOW MOVING DOWN THE OREGON COAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NORTH TEXAS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN WEST TEXAS. THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY DRAGS THE TROUGH THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL GO TOO FAR NORTH FOR OUR CWA TO SEE MUCH RAINFALL. IF THE UPPER TROUGH DIVES FARTHER SOUTH...OUR RAIN CHANCES RISE SIGNIFICANTLY. .MARINE...BUOY020 CHECKS IN WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 4 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 6 KNOTS AND 7 FOOT SWELLS AT 9 SECONDS. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT WITH SWELLS DECREASING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SOMETIME THIS EVENING. SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TONIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE. MODERATING WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TAP UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN WINDS PICK UP IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DUE TO THIS CHANGING WEATHER REGIME...BUT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 64 76 66 79 68/ 10 00 00 00 00 BROWNSVILLE 64 76 67 80 67/ 10 00 00 00 00 HARLINGEN 62 77 65 82 66/ 10 00 00 00 00 MCALLEN 61 78 64 83 66/ 10 00 00 00 00 RIO GRANDE CITY 59 79 62 84 66/ 00 10 10 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 74 66 76 67/ 10 00 00 00 00 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA FOR GMZ150-155-170-175. && $$ SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...64 AVIATION/MARINE...52 MESO...VEGA THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 840 PM EST MON MAR 1 2004 LATEST SATELLITE SHOWING CLEARED OUT AREA OVER NWRN HALF OF FA...WITH GENERALLY M CLOUDY SKY SERN HALF. ALSO...TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN SHORE...INCLUDING SBY...OXB...AND WAL...ALREADY IN MID 40S...A LITTLE BELOW FCAST MINS. WILL UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF. LATEST MODEL RUNS...INCLUDING RUC...AND 18Z ETA...GFS...KEEP BULK OF PRECIP W OF THE FA OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR FAR WRN ZONES...LATE...IN THE CASE OF THE ETA. WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT TO FAR WRN ZONES...AND EVEN THERE JUST A 30 POP. .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. VA...NONE. NC...NONE. && $$ REILLY va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 252 AM MST TUE MAR 2 2004 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... AN UPPER TROUGH IS BEING CARVED OUT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH THE RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT 500 MB OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. AZTEC NM PROFILER IS SHOWING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES. A WEAK WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY AND IS PRODUCING A BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID CLOUD DECK OVER MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH PER RADAR. A STRONG UPPER JET OFF THE WEST COAST WILL DIG THE WESTERN TROUGH SOUTH TODAY WITH THE CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING OVER NORTHERN BAJA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THIS EVENING. WARM ADVECTION SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN SAN JUANS WHERE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW 15-25KT 700MB WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE AREA WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE BY TONIGHT. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE WITH POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL HOIST A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN SAN JUANS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 5-10 INCH RANGE EXPECTED TONIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADJACENT VALLEY ZONES COULD GET SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TONIGHT BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS AT THE MOMENT. NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING LACKING. THE CLOSED LOW WILL STAY WAY SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. WEAKENING SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL SHUT DOWN WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION. MAY PICK UP SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK PUSH OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A POTENTIAL WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE DEVIATION FROM MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NEXT FAST MOVING SHRTWV NOW DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EXITS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM... ALTHOUGH FAST MOVEMENT WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SFC WINDS WITH H7 FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. LATEST GFS IS NOW INDICATING THIS WAVE WILL BE IMPACTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE ADJUSTED CURRENT GRIDDED FIELDS TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. HOWEVER...WITH SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WL NOT ADJUST SOUTHERN POPS MUCH ATTM. SYSTEM WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WITH H7 READINGS DROPPING TO AROUND -14 C. SATURDAY-TUESDAY...NW FLOW ALOFT WL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HEIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK WAVES PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA MAY CLIP THE NRN MOUNTAINS FROM TIME-TO- TIME...SO WL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE... DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR ZONE 19. .UT...NONE. && TAL/JDC co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 355 AM EST TUE MAR 2 2004 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FAR EAST AND NORTH TIL 11Z FOR POINT AND CLICK FORECAST WHERE SOME WEAK RETURNS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT ISSUANCE TIME. LARGE AREA OF PRIMARILY MVFR SC OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA...BUT DID OFFER SOME RESOLUTION/COLLABORATION IN SKY GRIDS WITH NORTH PRIMARILY OVERCAST AND FAR SOUTH MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND FRONT AND PER MESOETA/RUC ANTICIPATE MINIMUMS PROBABLY AROUND 14Z THEN TRACK BACK TO A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL RISE/FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO OPEN/LIFT NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND SYSTEM AND DESPITE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE BY 21Z TO NEAR GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS THAT WERE ALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES BUT BEST LIFT/MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL SO WILL NOT INCLUDE. && .LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOTS OF FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE AND MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR WEDNESDAY TO BE DRY AND PLEASANT. INITIAL CONCERNS COME IN WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS WITH COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH ON TUESDAY BEGINNING TO RETURN BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. FAVORABLE SETUP FOR OVERRUNNING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH GFS FAVORING A WETTER SOLUTION FOR THIS AREA. SOME RESERVATIONS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE ETA TAKES THE FRONT SINCE THERE IS NO SIG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT. WILL KEEP GRIDS AS IS WITH CHC POPS LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURS FOR NOW...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING SITES. EVEN TOUGHER CHALLENGE COMES WITH PRECIP CHCS MAINLY THURS NGT INTO FRI AND TEMPS THUR-FRI. ALL MODELS NOW KEEPING THE SFC LOW WEST OF THE AREA...WITH A STRONG SW FLOW SETTING UP LATE THURS NGT(MODELS GENERALLY AGREEING ON 60-70 KT 850 MB JET). THIS STRONG FLOW COMBINED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KT UPR LEVEL JET STREAK ALL POINT TOWARDS TOWARDS A LOT OF DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. RAINFALL LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET THURS NGT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THIS RAINFALL POSSIBLY BEING ON THE HEAVY SIDE. ETA MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING IN WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AREAS LATE THURS NGT INTO EARLY FRI AND THINK THIS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO...WHICH WOULD SPELL OUT A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THURS NGT INTO FRI AM. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 50 IN MOST AREAS...WITH ETA PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S BY FRI AM. WILL KEEP HIGH LIKELY POPS THURS NGT...WITH CAT POPS LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET IN LATER FORECASTS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...WILL HOLD OFF ON THUNDER MENTION UNTIL BETTER HANDLE ON MSTR/INSTABILITY IS HOPEFULLY ACHIEVED. HAVE ALSO BUMPED BACK MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW TO LATE FRIDAY AS THICKNESS VALUES ON MODELS POINT TOWARDS MOST IF NOT ALL OF FRI BEING ALL LIQUID. POPS FRI TRICKY AS WELL AS COULD SEE A SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY WITH PRECIP EARLY THEN DRY SLOT WORKING IN AND LINE OF PRECIP AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WILL LEAVE AS CHC FOR NOW. WITH ABOVE NOTED ITEMS...HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS THURS THROUGH FRI...BUT STILL ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE ON THURS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S IN SOME AREAS ON FRIDAY IF SLOWER/MORE WESTERLY TREND CONTINUES. NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND FRIDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM FOR LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY SHOWING TIMING/TRACK CONCERNS. TEMPS BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS. && .AVIATION... LINE OF SHOWERS NOW EAST OF KFWA. LOWER MVFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK WITH WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND NARROWN CLEAR SLOT BEHIND FRONT. THEN ETA/MESOETA PROFILES KEEP KSBN AND KFWA IN HIGH 2-4KFT MOISTURE THROUGH REMAINDER OF TERMINALS. KFWA NEAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF MOISTURE POOL AND WILL ALLOW HEATING/MIXING TO TAKE THEM VFR BY 22Z. A WEAK 8H TROF/SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES 00Z-06Z WED BUT STRENGTH DOESNT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRENT PCPN MENTION WITH GREATER FORCING/BETTER MOISTURE NORTH OF TERMINALS. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 335 AM EST TUE MAR 2 2004 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... LINGERING FOG AND SNOW THIS MORNING IS SHORT TERM CONCERN. OCCLUDED SFC LOW RESIDING NEAR WAWA ONTARIO (CYXZ) CONTINUES TO LIFT NE AS UPR LOW OPENS UP OVR UPR MI. DEEP MOISTURE SPURRING ON SOME LGT SNOW IN DECAYING DEFORMATION BAND FM NORTHEAST MN INTO NW UPR MI. SHORT RANGE MODELS MISSING MARK SO FAR WITH LOW-MID 30S TD AS FAR W AS N MN...BUT EXPECT GRADUALLY INCREASING BLYR FLOW/WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TO BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ATTM. STILL...WILL RIDE WITH SOME DENSE FOG THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING EAST HALF OF CWA. ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE THAT MAY SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG REFORM BRIEFLY ACROSS MUCH OF CWA EARLY THIS AM (BTWN 4 AM AND 8 AM)...THINK WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS ENDING...SO BARRING ANY LAST MINUTE DRASTIC CHANGES IN CURRENT OBS...AM PLANNING TO CANCEL DENSE FOG ADVY. 00Z KINL/KMPX SOUNDINGS SHOWED DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS N MN IN THE H9-H8 LAYER WITH BOTH LOCATIONS DEPICTING RATHER MOIST SFC-H9 LAYER. THE H9-H8 LAYER SEEMS GOOD FIT COMPARED TO CURRENT OBS IN MN WHERE PCPN IS OCCURRING AND BOTH ETA/RUC SHOW SOME SIMBLANCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE PERSISTING THROUGH TODAY. WENT WITH SCT -SHSN ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF WRN/NCNTRL UPR MI THROUGH MIDDAY WITH FLURRIES OTHERWISE. TEMPS SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO CURRENT LOW-MID 30S READINGS WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. WEAK WAVE OVER WRN DAKOTAS CROSSES UPR LAKES TONIGHT SO KEPT SOME FLURRIES IN THE FCST UNTIL OVERNIGHT AS FORCING FM WAVE PASSES TO E. .LONG TERM (WED THROUGH MON)... QUICK HITTING N STREAM WAVE WED-WED NITE AND SIG SYSTEM FOR FRI ARE HIGHLIGHTS OF LONGER TERM. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS PAC NW/SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA ATTM PROGGED TO PRESS STEADILY EWD INTO UPR GREAT LAKES BY LATE WED. W FLOW NOTED IN N STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SO TREND OFF 00Z MODELS OF QUICKER ARRIVAL FOR WAVE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WITH LIGHT SNOW IS BELIEVABLE. ADJUSTED POPS TO FAVOR 00Z-06Z WED NIGHT FOR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW. INCREASING S/SW FLOW TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE INTO UPR LAKES WITH PWATS RISING TOWARD 0.5 INCH ON BOTH GFS/ETA WILL FEED QUICK HITTING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. MIXING RATIOS BTWN 1-2 G/KG/MODEL QPF UP TO 0.20 SUGGESTS AN INCH TO TWO OF SNOW FOR MOST CWA. DESPITE SNOW...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION FM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE TO DRAG PORTION OF COLD AIR BOTTLED UP OVR CANADA FOR PAST COUPLE WEEKS INTO UPR LAKES. H85 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -12C BY DAYBREAK THU PER GFS/ETA A BIT WARMER -10C OFF ECMWF/UKMET. KEPT THE SMALL CHANCE OF LK EFFECT LATE WED NITE INTO THU AM. BY THU AFTN ATTN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVR CNTRL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SHARP UPR TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF S PLAINS. 00Z MODELS GFS/ETA/CANADIAN/UKMET AND MARCH 1 12Z ECMWF ALL DEPICT SFC LOW RIDING NE INTO VCTY OF N IL BY 12Z FRI (ECMWF A BIT FARTHER TO NW)...THEN TO N LK HURON BY 00Z SAT. H85/H7 LOWS TRACK FM CNTRL WI INTO E UPR MI. WITH FARTHER NW TRACK ECMWF SHOWING H85 TEMPS WARMING ABOVE ZERO BY THAT TIME (FZRA/RA SCENARIO) WHILE ALL OTHERS DEPICT BLYR COLD ENOUGH FOR A SNOW EVENT FOR ALL CWA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH EXTENT OF GULF MOISTURE THAT IS INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM (PWATS RANGE FM 0.6 ON GFS TO NEAR 1.0 ON ETA)...BUT EVEN SO DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FOR SNOW FRI AND TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FRI NIGHT AS SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF UPR LAKES. ONLY NEED TO TWEAK HWO WHICH CONVEYS SITUATION WELL. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE BEYOND FRI NIGHT. THANKS TO GRB AND APX FOR COORD. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 255 AM CST TUE MAR 2 2004 .DISCUSSION MAIN CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND THE THREAT OF A MAJOR PRECIPITATION THREAT ON THURSDAY. LATEST MOISTURE IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS SIMILIAR IN DROPPING THE SYSTEM INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PREFER SLIGHTLY FASTER AVN WITH THE INITIATION OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT GENERALLY FOUND ON THE 290-295K ISENTROPIC SURFACES AND CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THESE SURFACES CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA...ALBEIT NOT TOO STRONG. AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH MAY CONCENTRATE ISENTROPIC LIFT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONCENTRATE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. PREFER ETA WITH THIS SCENARIO AS BELIEVE AVN A LITTLE TOO BULLISH WITH DEPICTION OF STRONG QPF IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. HOWEVER...BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEPICTED BY ETA...SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. MAIN CONERN IS THURSDAY WHEN STRONG UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LITTLE TOO SOON ON PARTICULARS ON EXACT TRACK...BUT BOTH ETA/GFS TRACK STRONG UPPER LOW INTO THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH COPIOUS H8 MOISTURE. BASED ON TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL LOW...PREFER SURFACE LOW TRACK OF GFS WITH THE SURFACE LOW FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG QG FORCING...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES MAY LEAD TO A POTENTIAL HYDRO PROBLEM. AT THIS TIME...FEEL BEST THREAT IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WILL ISSUE AN ESF FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. AREA COULD EASILY RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES IN 12 HOURS WITH WOULD EXCEED HEADWATER GUIDANCE. AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED BASED ON LATER DATA. IN THE SHORT TERM...COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATOCU ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EDGE NORTHEAST TODAY...ONLY TO GIVE WAY TO INCRREASING HIGH CLOUDS. DB && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 320 PM... GETTING RID OF ONE SYSTEM AND GEARING UP FOR THE NEXT. DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WEAKENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS LATER THIS EVENING. FROM NOW TILL MID EVENING THE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY. LOW CLOUDS A BIT TRICKY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB COLD POOL WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A LOWER DECK TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST BY THE RUC AND ETA 925MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS TO SURGE SOUTH AT THE SAME TIME THE STRATOCU IS LIFTING NORTHEAST. NET EFFECT...MAY SEE SOME CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 36 BUT LOWER DECK FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE MO RIVER BY 12Z TUE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF/SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ETA/MAV MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. ALTHOUGH NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KS/NORTHERN MO AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TRANSPORTS INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS WEAK VORTICITY LOBE SHEARS NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON WEDNESDAY THEY ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RAIN IN STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE WELL NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO TIGHTENED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING AS CLOUDS/RAIN KEEP READINGS WITHIN A 5-10 DEGREE RANGE. MJ A SOGGY FINISH TO THE WORK-WEEK IS FORECAST...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE EJECTION OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST SHORTWAVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY...AIDED BY MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS SHORTWAVE APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LOW CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN EXTREME NORTHERN MISSOURI ON THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT. HAVE GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS...ALTHOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING OVERNIGHT. LS && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...NONE. .KS...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 317 AM CST MON MAR 1 2004 .DISCUSSION... PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AND PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE FOR WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY SYSTEM. 00Z MODELS HAD A FEW PROBLEMS INITIALIZING WHEN COMPARING MODELS TO THE RAOBS. MAJOR PROBLEMS APPEARED TO BE THE STRENGTH OF RIDGING AHEAD OF SOUTHWEST US SHORTWAVE WITH THE ETA BEING TO STRONG WITH THE RIDGING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. BOTH THE GFS/ETA HAD PROBLEMS INITIALIZING 850 TEMPERATURE FIELD WITH MODELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH MODELS GENERALLY BEING A BIT TO WARM AT POINTS UPSTREAM. ALSO PROBLEMS WERE NOTED WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE -12C ISOTHERM AT H700...WITH THE ETA NOTICEABLY TO FAR NORTH WITH IT. BASED ON ALL THESE PROBLEMS GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WITH THE GFS AFTER THAT AS THE MIDLEVEL FRONT...WHICH ETA WAS HAVING PROBLEMS WITH ALREADY WILL BE KEY IN THURSDAY/FRIDAY SYSTEM. FOR TODAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN. WEAK H500 SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH IT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS TODAY AS STRATUS SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS AND RUC/ETA 2M TEMPS REALLY TRY TO WARM THINGS UP TODAY BUT WITH WEAK WINDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT PEAK HEATING TIME DONT FEEL THAT TEMPS WILL MOVE ALOT TODAY AND WENT CLOSE TO MAV NUMBERS AS THEY SEEM TO HANDLE THESE EVENTS THE BEST. TONIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS UP EARLY ACROSS THE WEST WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP LOWS UP A BIT IN THE WEST AND RAISED NUMBERS A BIT FROM GOING FORECAST. WAS A BIT WORRIED THAT PRECIP MY BEGIN IN THE WEST WITH INITIAL BAND OF H700 WAA BUT BASED ON SOUNDINGS DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY TRICKY AS SFC TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. WARMED TEMPS UP CONSIDERABLY AS WAA SETS IN AHEAD OF TROUGH. MIXING FULLY FROM H900 WOULD YIELD TEMPS IN THE 40S EVERYWHERE O NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST...BUT DONT THINK WE WILL FULLY MIX SO DIDNT GO THAT EXTREME. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY LINE UP BETTER WITH MIDLEVEL WAA BAND. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME H800-700 INSTABILITY SO WONT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. DIDNT MAKE ALOT OF CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT. MADE LARGE CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS 00Z MODELS HAVE CAME IN BRING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MUCH FARTHER NORTH. BOTH ETA AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BUT GFS MUCH COLDER IN THE LOWER LEVELS. BASED ON INITIALIZATION LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WILL GIVE US MOSTLY SNOW. WITH MID AND LOWER LEVEL FRONTAL BAND PRETTY STACKED...EXPECT TO SEE A DECENT SNOW BAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA. DECIDED JUST TO GO HIGH CHANCE POPS THOUGH EXCEPT FOR FAR SE...AS MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A LOT A TROUBLE WITH THESE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THIS WAVE ENDS UP TRACKING FARTHER NORTH. && .FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ JRM sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 625 AM EST TUE MAR 2 2004 .AVIATION... LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TERMINAL FORECASTS NEEDED. PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS THROUGHOUT. EXCEPT AT KFWA BEING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN EDGE OF MOISTURE HAVE ALLOWED THEM TO MIX OUT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS CONCERN FOR WDLY SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP THIS EVENING AT KSBN HOWEVER CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE. && .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FAR EAST AND NORTH TIL 11Z FOR POINT AND CLICK FORECAST WHERE SOME WEAK RETURNS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT ISSUANCE TIME. LARGE AREA OF PRIMARILY MVFR SC OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA...BUT DID OFFER SOME RESOLUTION/COLLABORATION IN SKY GRIDS WITH NORTH PRIMARILY OVERCAST AND FAR SOUTH MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND FRONT AND PER MESOETA/RUC ANTICIPATE MINIMUMS PROBABLY AROUND 14Z THEN TRACK BACK TO A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL RISE/FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO OPEN/LIFT NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND SYSTEM AND DESPITE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE BY 21Z TO NEAR GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS THAT WERE ALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES BUT BEST LIFT/MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL SO WILL NOT INCLUDE. && .LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOTS OF FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE AND MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR WEDNESDAY TO BE DRY AND PLEASANT. INITIAL CONCERNS COME IN WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS WITH COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH ON TUESDAY BEGINNING TO RETURN BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. FAVORABLE SETUP FOR OVERRUNNING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH GFS FAVORING A WETTER SOLUTION FOR THIS AREA. SOME RESERVATIONS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE ETA TAKES THE FRONT SINCE THERE IS NO SIG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT. WILL KEEP GRIDS AS IS WITH CHC POPS LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURS FOR NOW...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING SITES. EVEN TOUGHER CHALLENGE COMES WITH PRECIP CHCS MAINLY THURS NGT INTO FRI AND TEMPS THUR-FRI. ALL MODELS NOW KEEPING THE SFC LOW WEST OF THE AREA...WITH A STRONG SW FLOW SETTING UP LATE THURS NGT(MODELS GENERALLY AGREEING ON 60-70 KT 850 MB JET). THIS STRONG FLOW COMBINED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KT UPR LEVEL JET STREAK ALL POINT TOWARDS TOWARDS A LOT OF DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. RAINFALL LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET THURS NGT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THIS RAINFALL POSSIBLY BEING ON THE HEAVY SIDE. ETA MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING IN WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AREAS LATE THURS NGT INTO EARLY FRI AND THINK THIS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO...WHICH WOULD SPELL OUT A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THURS NGT INTO FRI AM. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 50 IN MOST AREAS...WITH ETA PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S BY FRI AM. WILL KEEP HIGH LIKELY POPS THURS NGT...WITH CAT POPS LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET IN LATER FORECASTS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...WILL HOLD OFF ON THUNDER MENTION UNTIL BETTER HANDLE ON MSTR/INSTABILITY IS HOPEFULLY ACHIEVED. HAVE ALSO BUMPED BACK MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW TO LATE FRIDAY AS THICKNESS VALUES ON MODELS POINT TOWARDS MOST IF NOT ALL OF FRI BEING ALL LIQUID. POPS FRI TRICKY AS WELL AS COULD SEE A SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY WITH PRECIP EARLY THEN DRY SLOT WORKING IN AND LINE OF PRECIP AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WILL LEAVE AS CHC FOR NOW. WITH ABOVE NOTED ITEMS...HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS THURS THROUGH FRI...BUT STILL ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE ON THURS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S IN SOME AREAS ON FRIDAY IF SLOWER/MORE WESTERLY TREND CONTINUES. NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND FRIDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM FOR LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY SHOWING TIMING/TRACK CONCERNS. TEMPS BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 718 AM CST TUE MAR 2 2004 .UPDATED... WE HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE RISING THETA SURFACES STILL BATTLING THE DOWNGLIDE ON THE 280K THETA SURFACE. THE SUN SHOULD HELP ERODE THINGS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM. COX --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WL REVOLVE AROUND THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION TUE NGT THROUGH THU NGT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT QPF AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING POTENTIAL TDAY-TNGT: TDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DRY DAY FOR A FEW DAYS AS OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER DIGS OVER BAJA. CIRRUS WL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL. THE WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE TNGT AS MOISTURE STARTS TO STREAM NORTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT WL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE TNGT WITH THE BEST UPGLIDE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER. AS 850MB JET STRENGTHENS LOOK FOR THE CONVERGENT AREA OF THIS JET TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH THE NGT. BECAUSE THE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AREA STAY JUST SOUTH OF CWA, CHOSE NO TO GO 100 POPS. BUT DID UP POPS TO AT LEAST LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THUNDER WL BE AN OPTION TNGT AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED. WED-THU: THE UPPER SYSTEM WL REALLY TAKE ITS TIME WORKING EAST WED WHICH WL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS PUMPING MOISTURE INTO REGION. DO NOT THINK PRECIP WL BE CONTINUES WED BUT SHOULD SEE OFF AND ON SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS UPGLIDE IN THE 295-300K LAYER CONTINUES WED AND WED NGT. FEEL THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER OVER SE KS WL COME LATER WED NGT INTO THU. THIS IS WHEN THE MAIN DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM LIFT OUT. COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WL RESULT IN PLENTY OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A WARM FRONT LAYING GENERALLY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. SO WENT 100 POPS FOR THU AS ALL OF CWA SHOULD GET WET. WITH THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE PRECIP (TUE NGT-THU) MAY SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. 850MB DPS WL APPROACH THE 10 C MARK WHICH IS VERY MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARM FRONT MAY ALSO HELP FOCUS SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE SE PORTION OF CWA. SO ATTM WL GO AHEAD AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO. PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO THU NGT AS CENTRAL KS IS PLACED IN THE WRAP AROUND AREA OF THIS SYSTEM. SO DID BUMP POPS A BIT FOR THIS PERIOD. DID KEEP -RASN FOR A FEW COUNTIES OVER CENTRAL KS, BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING TO GET WORKED UP ABOUT. FRI-MON: FOUND IT HARD TO IMPROVE ON WHAT PREV FCST HAD GOING, SO ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS. BY FRI 12Z ALL MED RANGE MODELS AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST GFS IS SPREADING SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER CWA FRI. WL GO WITH THE THINKING THAT THIS IS ITS TYPICAL BIAS OF SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP OVER TOO MUCH AREA. WITH THIS WL KEEP DRY FOR ENTIRE EXTENDED. SUN AND MON SHOULD BE THE BETTER OF THE EXTENDED DAYS AS SFC RIDGE MOVES ACROSS AREA. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO NO MAJOR SWINGS ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. SO WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAY AND A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR SAT-MON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA 50 40 49 43 / 0 60 60 60 HUTCHINSON 49 39 47 41 / 0 50 60 50 NEWTON 49 39 48 42 / 0 50 60 50 ELDORADO 50 40 49 43 / 0 60 60 60 STROTHER FIELD 51 41 50 44 / 0 70 70 70 RUSSELL 46 36 44 34 / 0 50 50 40 GREAT BEND 47 37 45 38 / 0 50 50 40 SALINA 48 37 47 39 / 0 50 50 40 MCPHERSON 48 38 47 40 / 0 50 50 50 COFFEYVILLE 54 41 51 47 / 0 80 80 80 CHANUTE 51 40 50 44 / 0 70 80 70 IOLA 51 39 50 44 / 0 70 80 70 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 7/LAWSON ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1000 AM EST TUE MAR 2 2004 .DISCUSSION... UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. TWO WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM ON 50H/70H ANALYSIS BUT IT IS THE MINOR RIPPLES WITHIN THE ACCELERATED FLOW...COUPLED WITH OUR MOIST AIRMASS AND ENHANCEMENT FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET THAT ARE HELPING PRODUCE RAIN THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED SECONDARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS PARKED ITSELF IN NORTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...ALMOST ALONG INTERSTATE 85...ACTING AS A CONVERGENCE MECHANISM. 06Z MODELS...AND LATEST RUC...SUGGEST THE MAIN FRONT BOUNDARY WILL NOT MAKE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON. NEITHER TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT UPSTATE/NORTHEAST GEORGIA BOUNDARY. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 50 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN TIER UPSTATE COUNTIES...THE FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA. POPS WERE LOWERED TO CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR THE I-77 CORRIDOR...AND THE SOUTHERN TIER UPSTATE PLUS ELBERT...SINCE BETTER FORCING WILL MISS THOSE AREAS. BREAKS SHOWING UP ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EXTENT OF A BROAD STRATOCU FIELD SUGGEST BEST WARMING WILL OCCUR THERE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWED A 70H THERMAL TROF ROTATING THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AREA SOUNDINGS NOT ESPECIALLY UNSTABLE TODAY; ONE HAS TO GO SOUTHWEST TO BMX TO FIND LIFTED INDICES BELOW ZERO BUT ONE FEATURE COMMON TO ALL SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING WAS A CORE OF 40 TO 50 KT 85H WINDS. WITH A LITTLE MIXING LATER TODAY...CONDITIONS COULD BE QUITE BREEZY ALONG OUR SOUTH AND EAST FLANK. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROF...WE WILL INCLUDE SCATTERED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN TIER UPSTATE/FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH THIS UPDATE. RAINFALL FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...DESPITE THE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS...A QUARTER INCH OF LESS WEST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. ONLY CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WAS TO RAISE MAXES TO LOWER 70S FOR OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GSP 68 52 72 52 / 50 30 10 10 AND 69 52 72 53 / 40 30 10 10 CLT 69 52 72 52 / 50 20 10 10 HKY 66 50 70 49 / 50 20 30 30 AVL 64 48 67 48 / 60 30 30 30 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 227 PM MST TUE MAR 2 2004 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY) CURRENTLY: SATELLITE IMAGERY AND H5 RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE S CA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING UP INTO NM AND CO...AND LTG DEVELOPING ACROSS S AZ. ACROSS THE CWA...LINGERING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...HAS SLOWED THE WARMING PROCESS CONSIDERABLY. TEMPS ARE FINALLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 40S THIS AFTN ACROSS THE E PLAINS...WHILE KCOS IS STRUGGLING TO WARM TO THE FREEZING MARK. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW: BOTH ETA AND AVN MODELS ARE VERY CLOSE IN PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...AND CONTINUE THE TREND OF DROPPING THE WINTER SYSTEM DRAMATICALLY TO THE SOUTH INTO OLD MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF AZ TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE UP INTO THE STATE. WHILE THE WINDS ARE MORE SW THIS TONIGHT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN JUANS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. CAME UP WITH 8-10 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE FAVORED AREAS THERE...SO ONGOING SNOW ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAINTAIN. ELSEWHERE...SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL DRAW THE MOISTURE UP WHILE THE TAIL OF A 150 KT JET ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SOME DYNAMICS. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT IN CERTAIN AREAS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHICH WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT. STILL...SCATTERED POPS LOOK GOOD. TOMORROW THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT E... AND WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE IN NM...SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL STILL HAVE A GOOD SHOT FOR SCATTERED PRECIP. HAD TO COOL MIN AND MAX T GRIDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW TO BETTER CORRESPOND WITH WHAT HAPPENED TODAY. OVERALL...GENERAL TRENDS OF ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. \\MOORE// .LONG TERM... (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MAIN FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW BOTTOMS OUT OVER NRN MEXICO AND HEADS EAST-NORTHEAST...WITH BEST QG FORCING WELL SOUTH OF COLORADO. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIP TYPE MAINLY SNOW AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS JUST BEGINNING. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS...OVERALL THINGS LOOK FINE. THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ETA LIFT THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH INCREASING QG ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE COMBINING TO GENERATE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER AND THEN TAPER THEM OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...WHICH MATCHES FAIRLY WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. SUSPECT ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW CENTER TO CHANGE PRECIP TO RAIN OVER THE PLAINS...WITH SNOW LEVELS CLIMBING OVER THE MTNS AS WELL. COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY HIGH QPF TOTALS OVER THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE AND 700MB LOW WRAP UP A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...WHICH WAS HINTED AT BY THE 06Z MODELS. THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SYSTEM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH DRIER AIR SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE GRIDS WAS TO END PRECIP A LITTLE SOONER....KEEPING JUST SOME LOW POPS OVER THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED -SHSN. INCOMING AIR MASS NOT LOOKING VERY COLD...SO WILL NUDGE UP MAX TEMP GRIDS JUST SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST GFS AND VARIOUS OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS POINT TOWARD A CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A NICE WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA... WITH ANY PRECIP LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG THE CONT DVD AS A FEW WEAK S/W TROUGHS MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS. CURRENT GRIDS DEPICT THIS SCENARIO WELL WITH FEW IF ANY CHANGES MADE. --PETERSEN && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET(ZONE 68). && $$ co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1245 PM EST TUE MAR 2 2004 .AVIATION... SAT PIX AND OBS SHOW BREAKS IN STRATUS ACROSS REGION WITH MVFR CIGS IN AND OUT AT KSBN AND STILL HOLDING AT KFWA. WILL GO WITH A TEMPO GROUP THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXING HELPING CREATE BREAKS AS LOWER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AT TIMES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE HOWEVER SO BACK TO MVFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. VFR CIGS REMAIN WED AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND SHOULD SPREAD AT LEAST VFR CIGS ACROSS REGION. && .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FAR EAST AND NORTH TIL 11Z FOR POINT AND CLICK FORECAST WHERE SOME WEAK RETURNS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT ISSUANCE TIME. LARGE AREA OF PRIMARILY MVFR SC OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA...BUT DID OFFER SOME RESOLUTION/COLLABORATION IN SKY GRIDS WITH NORTH PRIMARILY OVERCAST AND FAR SOUTH MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND FRONT AND PER MESOETA/RUC ANTICIPATE MINIMUMS PROBABLY AROUND 14Z THEN TRACK BACK TO A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL RISE/FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO OPEN/LIFT NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND SYSTEM AND DESPITE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE BY 21Z TO NEAR GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS THAT WERE ALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES BUT BEST LIFT/MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL SO WILL NOT INCLUDE. && .LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOTS OF FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE AND MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR WEDNESDAY TO BE DRY AND PLEASANT. INITIAL CONCERNS COME IN WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS WITH COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH ON TUESDAY BEGINNING TO RETURN BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. FAVORABLE SETUP FOR OVERRUNNING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH GFS FAVORING A WETTER SOLUTION FOR THIS AREA. SOME RESERVATIONS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE ETA TAKES THE FRONT SINCE THERE IS NO SIG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT. WILL KEEP GRIDS AS IS WITH CHC POPS LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURS FOR NOW...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING SITES. EVEN TOUGHER CHALLENGE COMES WITH PRECIP CHCS MAINLY THURS NGT INTO FRI AND TEMPS THUR-FRI. ALL MODELS NOW KEEPING THE SFC LOW WEST OF THE AREA...WITH A STRONG SW FLOW SETTING UP LATE THURS NGT(MODELS GENERALLY AGREEING ON 60-70 KT 850 MB JET). THIS STRONG FLOW COMBINED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KT UPR LEVEL JET STREAK ALL POINT TOWARDS TOWARDS A LOT OF DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. RAINFALL LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET THURS NGT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THIS RAINFALL POSSIBLY BEING ON THE HEAVY SIDE. ETA MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING IN WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AREAS LATE THURS NGT INTO EARLY FRI AND THINK THIS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO...WHICH WOULD SPELL OUT A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THURS NGT INTO FRI AM. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 50 IN MOST AREAS...WITH ETA PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S BY FRI AM. WILL KEEP HIGH LIKELY POPS THURS NGT...WITH CAT POPS LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET IN LATER FORECASTS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...WILL HOLD OFF ON THUNDER MENTION UNTIL BETTER HANDLE ON MSTR/INSTABILITY IS HOPEFULLY ACHIEVED. HAVE ALSO BUMPED BACK MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW TO LATE FRIDAY AS THICKNESS VALUES ON MODELS POINT TOWARDS MOST IF NOT ALL OF FRI BEING ALL LIQUID. POPS FRI TRICKY AS WELL AS COULD SEE A SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY WITH PRECIP EARLY THEN DRY SLOT WORKING IN AND LINE OF PRECIP AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WILL LEAVE AS CHC FOR NOW. WITH ABOVE NOTED ITEMS...HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS THURS THROUGH FRI...BUT STILL ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE ON THURS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S IN SOME AREAS ON FRIDAY IF SLOWER/MORE WESTERLY TREND CONTINUES. NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND FRIDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM FOR LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY SHOWING TIMING/TRACK CONCERNS. TEMPS BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 205 PM MST TUE MAR 2 2004 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK OVER NEBRASKA WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE. PRECIPITATION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RAIN SHIELD COULD CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AROUND DAWN AS SURFACE TO CLOUD LAYER HOVERS AROUND 32F. WIND DIRECTION AT THAT TIME WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING COULD BE ENOUGH TO RAISE THE TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING. TOO CLOSE TO CALL...AND ADDED FREEZING RAIN WORDING FROM TRIBUNE TO MCCOOK. AREAS OF FOG CARRIED AS WELL WITH RUC II FORECASTING LOW CEILINGS AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY PER ETA QPF FIELDS. CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 40S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN 500 MB SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE WIDESPREAD. PRECIPITATION TYPE AFTER MIDNIGHT VERY CHALLENGING. ETABFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET OR SNOW A POSSIBILITY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM TRIBUNE TO MCCOOK. MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN YUMA COUNTY. WILL COVER ALL OF THESE BASES IN THE ZONES...AND LEAVE TO FUTURE SHIFTS TO REEVALUATE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THURSDAY...ETA AND GFS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. GFS COLDER AND WETTER WITH LATEST MOS GUIDANCE BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY EXCEPT IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. FEEL THE GFS OVERDONE AS IT HAS BEEN MOST WINTER AND THE ETA WILL VERIFY BETTER. WILL MAKE SOME CONCESSIONS HOWEVER TO THE GFS SOLUTION BY DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING POPS IN EASTERN ZONES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION PHASE CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC AND WILL JUST BROADBRUSH WITH RAIN/SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE ALL LIQUID SEEMS LIKELY. ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. FRIDAY...ETA 850 MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10C WARMER THAN THE GFS. COULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SNOW COVER IN THE EAST AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WEST. DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL QUICKLY ACT TO MELT THE SNOW HOWEVER. && .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO BACKDOOR COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GFS 850 MB 0C ISOTHERM SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...MUCH COOLER THAN THE ECMWF...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE CANADIAN GLOBAL. THUS PREFER HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT A CATEGORY WARMER THAN MEX GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL INDUCE LEE SIDE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. OPERATIONAL GFS 850 TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER TEENS. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 50S FOR ALL LOCATIONS...AND THINK DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL ADD AT LEAST A FEW MORE DEGREES. UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS WEST COAST RIDGE BUILDS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CLUSTERING AROUND THE 850 MB 5C ISOTHERM OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS...AND WILL USE THE ENSEMBLE AVERAGE OF LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS. RIDGE AXIS WILL APPROACH THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ JDK ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 345 PM CST TUE MAR 2 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TIMING OF WAVES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 60 HOURS. STRONG CLOSED UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TOMORROW. DESPITE IT BEING SO FAR AWAY WE'LL SOON BEGIN TO FEEL ITS EFFECTS LATER TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER REGION TONIGHT AND GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. STRONG UPGLIDE PER 290K/295K SURFACES WILL PROVIDE BASIS FOR AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE MO RIVER BY DAYBREAK. SHEAR LOBE MOVING THROUGH OK LATE TONIGHT WILL HELP SUPPORT RAIN BAND. RAIN HAS ALREADY SPREAD THROUGH WESTERN OK AND IS SPREADING NORTHEAST. 12Z ETA/AVN/CANADIAN MODELS ALL SIMILAR IN TIMING OF THIS FIRST WAVE. 18Z META QPF LOOKS WAY TOO HIGH GIVEN LACK OF DEEP MOIST LAYER. DON'T EXPECT TO SEE IT RAIN ALL DAY TOMORROW BUT MORNING HOURS WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS. WILL BACK OFF POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE PROGGED BY THE ETA MODEL SHUTS THE DOOR ON MEASURABLE RAIN EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL LEAVE TOKEN LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS SPRINKLES COULD FALL JUST ABOUT ANY TIME AND HAVE BLENDED IN WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC GIVEN CLOUDS/RAIN/EAST WINDS BUT ALREADY WENT UNDER GUIDANCE. SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ETA AND AVN ON EJECTING CLOSED LOW OUT OF OLD MEXICO. AVN DEEPER/STRONGER BUT FASTER AND FURTHER EAST. PREFER SLOWER AND MORE WESTERN ETA. HOWEVER...MAIN EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS FAR OUT IN TIME IS MINIMAL AS BOTH MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PRESENCE OVER CWA. GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE WIDE OPEN AND WILL POUR MOISTURE NORTHWARD. EXPECT TO SEE VERY ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOP ALONG WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL STORM EJECTING NORTHEAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WITH TRAINING OF STORMS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. PRIMARY HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO MACON LINE...BUT CERTAINTY A BIT IN QUESTION AS ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH COULD ROB THE INFLOW OF DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH. RAIN AND THUNDER SHOULD SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY THURSDAY EVENING BUT WILL HOLD ONTO RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCE POPS. MJ THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...ENDING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE THE END OF THE EVENT. THE GFS IS THE COLDER SOLUTION...WITH SUB-ZERO 850 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY (IN THE -2C TO -4C RANGE). THE ETA IS WARMER...AND HAS THE 850 MB ZERO DEGREE TEMP CONTOUR STRADDLING THE MISSOURI-IOWA BORDER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE MIXED PRECIP AREA TO INCLUDE AREAS IN NORTHERN MISSOURI ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 136...EXPECTING A CHANCE FOR A MIXED BOUT OF PRECIP AS THE 850 MB COLD POOL MOVES OVER ON FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. LS && .PREV DISCUSSION 255 AM... MAIN CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND THE THREAT OF A MAJOR PRECIPITATION THREAT ON THURSDAY. LATEST MOISTURE IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS SIMILAR IN DROPPING THE SYSTEM INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PREFER SLIGHTLY FASTER AVN WITH THE INITIATION OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT GENERALLY FOUND ON THE 290-295K ISENTROPIC SURFACES AND CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THESE SURFACES CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA...ALBEIT NOT TOO STRONG. AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH MAY CONCENTRATE ISENTROPIC LIFT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONCENTRATE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. PREFER ETA WITH THIS SCENARIO AS BELIEVE AVN A LITTLE TOO BULLISH WITH DEPICTION OF STRONG QPF IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. HOWEVER...BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEPICTED BY ETA...SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. MAIN CONCERN IS THURSDAY WHEN STRONG UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LITTLE TOO SOON ON PARTICULARS ON EXACT TRACK...BUT BOTH ETA/GFS TRACK STRONG UPPER LOW INTO THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH COPIOUS H8 MOISTURE. BASED ON TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL LOW...PREFER SURFACE LOW TRACK OF GFS WITH THE SURFACE LOW FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG QG FORCING...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES MAY LEAD TO A POTENTIAL HYDRO PROBLEM. AT THIS TIME...FEEL BEST THREAT IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WILL ISSUE AN ESF FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. AREA COULD EASILY RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES IN 12 HOURS WITH WOULD EXCEED HEADWATER GUIDANCE. AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED BASED ON LATER DATA. IN THE SHORT TERM...COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATOCU ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EDGE NORTHEAST TODAY...ONLY TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. DB && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 320 PM... GETTING RID OF ONE SYSTEM AND GEARING UP FOR THE NEXT. DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WEAKENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS LATER THIS EVENING. FROM NOW TILL MID EVENING THE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY. LOW CLOUDS A BIT TRICKY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB COLD POOL WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A LOWER DECK TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST BY THE RUC AND ETA 925MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS TO SURGE SOUTH AT THE SAME TIME THE STRATOCU IS LIFTING NORTHEAST. NET EFFECT...MAY SEE SOME CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 36 BUT LOWER DECK FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE MO RIVER BY 12Z TUE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF/SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ETA/MAV MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. ALTHOUGH NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KS/NORTHERN MO AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TRANSPORTS INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS WEAK VORTICITY LOBE SHEARS NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON WEDNESDAY THEY ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RAIN IN STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE WELL NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO TIGHTENED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING AS CLOUDS/RAIN KEEP READINGS WITHIN A 5-10 DEGREE RANGE. MJ A SOGGY FINISH TO THE WORK-WEEK IS FORECAST...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE EJECTION OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST SHORTWAVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY...AIDED BY MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS SHORTWAVE APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LOW CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN EXTREME NORTHERN MISSOURI ON THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT. HAVE GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS...ALTHOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING OVERNIGHT. LS && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...NONE. .KS...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo