PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 3 PM EST TUES FEB 4 2003 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 10 - FEB 14 2003 . . . . . . . . MODEL COMPARISONS: AGAIN TODAY THE SOLUTIONS FROM THE AVAILABLE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE 500 HPA PATTERN FOR THE FIRST FIVE DAYS. FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD THE MEAN 500 HPA PATTERNS FROM THE 0Z...6Z...12Z AND 18Z GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...THE ECMWF...AND DAVA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS... BUT THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BEGINNING TO SHOW UP AMONG THE MODELS. THE GENERAL PATTERN BEING FORECAST HAS A RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF CANADA RUNNING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH ALASKA AND BEING UNDERCUT BY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM...THE MAIN LOBE OF THE ARCTIC VORTEX CENTERED NEAR THE MOUTH OF HUDSON BAY AND A MEAN TROUGH AND GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH MOST HAVING SOME SORT OF CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST COAST BUT THE DAVA AND ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWING FLAT OPEN TROUGHS AS WOULD BE EXPECTED. THE CONUS IS DOMINATED BY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS IN MOST SOLUTIONS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT THE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE WHERE THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES AMONG SOLUTIONS ARE MOST NOTICEABLE. THE ECMWF CONNECTS A BAND OF POSITIVE ANOMALIES FROM THE POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA TO POSITIVE ANOMALIES OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THE 0Z GFS SOLUTION HEADED THIS DIRECTION BUT WAS NOT QUITE ABLE TO CONNECT THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES WHILE THE LASTEST GFS RUN... FROM 6Z... DOES CONNECT THEM ACROSS. THIS MAY BE THE EARLY SIGNS OF A GENERAL INCREASE IN HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WHICH WOULD ACCOMPANY A RETURN TO A MORE EL NINO-LIKE FLOW REGIME. TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER NEAR HUDSON BAY ARE CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND THE FORECAST PATTERN...BUT THE TELECONNECTION GIVE NO STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT SIGNAL IN THE AREAS WHERE THE ANOMALY FIELDS DISAGREE. THE DAILY MRF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 10. THE SPREAD IS VERY LOW COMPARED TO USUAL OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ALTHOUGH BY DAY 10 THE SPREAD IS INCREASING THERE. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED UNDERCUTTING OFF THE WEST COAST EVEN ON DAY 6...BUT THE OVERALL IDEA OF A REX-TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN OFF THE WEST COAST IS QUITE LIKELY GIVEN THE ENSEMBLES. THE TOOLS GENERALLY LOOK TOO WET IN ALASKA BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS WITH HEIGHT PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THAT WHICH IS FORECAST TODAY...SO THE OUTLOOK FOR ALASKA WAS MODIFIED TO BE DRIER THAN THE TOOLS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE TODAY...3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD USES 40 PERCENT OF THE ECMWF MODEL CENTERED ON DAY 7...25 PERCENT OF THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8... AND 10 PERCENT OF THE DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL OF THE DAY: ECMWF THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA PROG...MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE...AND ANALOGS ON THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT BLEND AND INDIVIDUAL MODELS. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATION FROM THE 500 HPA HEIGHT BLEND...ANALOGS ON INDIVIDUAL MODELS...ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS RUNS...AND THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS. . . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 12 - 18 2003 MODEL COMPARISONS: THE DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS THAT BEGAN TO SHOW UP FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD ARE AMPLIFIED FOR WEEK 2...WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 12Z AND 18Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS MAINTAINING MORE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE CONUS...LIKE YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE 0Z GFS TRIES BUT FAILS TO BRIDGE POSITIVE ANOMALIES FROM A POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA TO POSITIVE ANOMALIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE 6Z GFS...WHICH CAN NOT YET BE INCLUDED IN THE 500 HPA BLEND...AND THE DAVA SUCCEED IN MAKING THIS CONNECTION OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. GIVEN THE RECENT GFS MODEL BIASES...THE INDICATIONS FROM SOME MODELS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD...AND THE LATEST GFS RUN FROM 6Z...THE DAVA IS NOT UNREASONABLE AND HAS BEEN GIVEN THE HIGHEST WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEEK 2 PERIOD AS COMPARED TO THE 6 TO 10 DAY PROG...MAINLY SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN AND OVERALL HEIGHT RISES. CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEK 2 FORECAST IS ABOUT AVERAGE...3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD USES 15 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAYS 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAYS DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF THE ECMWF 5 DAY MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 20 PERCENT OF THE MOST RECENT 7 DAY OBSERVED MEAN 500 HPA PATTERN. THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NETWORK AND KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 500 HPA FORECAST...AND ANALOGS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS. A LARGER THAN USUAL COVERAGE OF NEAR NORMAL IS FORECAST...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TOOLS AND GENERAL MODERATION OF THE HEIGHT PATTERN. HOWEVER SUCH A LARGE COVERAGE OF NEAR NORMAL OFTEN TURNS OUT TO BE A LOW SKILL FORECAST. THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE 500 HPA BLEND...ANALOGS AND ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS RUNS... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS. AS OFTEN IS THE CASE...THE ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS RUNS WAS WETTER THAN THE OTHER TOOLS. FORECASTER: R. MARTIN . . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPI- TATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIP- ITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE ...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. EFFECTIVE THURSDAY MAY 17 2001...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS SWITCHED TO 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS HAVE REPLACED THE 1961-1990 BASE PERIOD MEANS. . . . . . . . . GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:------------------------------------------------------ AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED. ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS. TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%. TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE. ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE. PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES. THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY WELL. ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID- TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID-LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. AVN - THE RUN OF THE MRF MODEL INITIATED AT 12 UTC (AS OF 07/2002 THE NAME FOR ALL RUNS OF THE NCEP GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL). BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500 HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER. THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1. WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500 HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500 HPA FORECAST. CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES. DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL. THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL. REFERENCE: QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL. MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287. EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO. ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500 HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS. GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM. THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS THE ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS FORECASTS. 500 HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE. UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500 HPA. 500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER. HPA - HECTO-PASCALS. 1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR. LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO. MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500 HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW. MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO. MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS. MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD. IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. MRF - MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODEL (AS OF 07/2002 RENAMED THE AVN) MRF ENSEMBLE - A SET OF MRF (AVN) FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS. THERE ARE CUR- RENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE MRF (AVN) ENSEMBLE. THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE MRF (AVN) ENSEMBLE MEAN. MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLA- TION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION. NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES. PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN. PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST. RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500 HPA HEIGHT. SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500 HPA FIELD. SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH- ERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNEC- TIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS. . . . . . . . . TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT. TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500 HPA HEIGHT. UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT). WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST. EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500 HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON THURSDAY FEBRUARY 20 2003. 6 to 10 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N B NEVADA N N W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N N WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA B A COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B N VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N B NEVADA N N W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B UTAH N N ARIZONA N A COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B B INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. NNNN NNNN