AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 230 PM EDT TUE JUN 6 2006 .SYNOPSIS...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR MYRTLE BEACH WITH TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNER'S REGION. A WEAKENING MCS WAS DIVING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW PULLING IN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINA'S WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND PARALLEL THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE NATION'S MIDSECTION. OUR ONLY HOPE FOR RAIN...ASIDE FROM SEA BREEZE STORMS...HINGES ON A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 12Z MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY AND WILL TRIM BACK THE 30 POP TO ONLY INCLUDE SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/SILENT 10 POP ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COMFORTABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH THE MERCURY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLER INLAND AREAS WED MORNING. AFTERNOON TEMPOS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FORECAST HAS BECOME DRIER AND HOTTER FOR THIS PERIOD. POPS ARE NOT REINTRODUCED UNTIL THE SUN-TUE TIME FRAME, AND THEN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE. MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT DURING THIS LATTER TIME FRAME AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE. IN ADDITION...THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY SETTLING INTO THE REGION ON TUE. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S BY DAY FOR MOST INLAND AREAS, WITH MID 60S MINS INCREASING TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 BY SUN AND BEYOND. && .MARINE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SEAS LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES...WITH JUST SCT-BKN250 THIS AFTN...AND SOME SCT HIGH BASED CU WITH THE SEA BREEZE ON WED. && .FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM EDT FOR ALL FLORIDA ZONES. A FED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA ZONES...EXCEPT GULF AND FRANKLIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RH. THE ONLY FACTOR PRECLUDING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR ALABAMA ZONES WILL BE WIND SPEEDS UNDER 10 MPH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 57 92 63 94/ 00 00 00 20 PANAMA CITY 68 88 72 88/ 00 00 00 20 DOTHAN 62 92 69 92/ 00 00 00 30 ALBANY 61 92 66 92/ 00 00 00 20 VALDOSTA 57 92 63 93/ 00 00 00 10 CROSS CITY 59 91 63 93/ 00 00 00 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES UNTIL 10 PM EDT. RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES FROM 1 PM EDT UNTIL 10 PM EDT... EXCEPT GULF AND FRANKLIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && $$ AVIATION/FIRE WX...GOULD PUBLIC/MARINE...BARRY LONG TERM...WOOL fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 240 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2006 .DISCUSSION... 240 PM CDT SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN OVER THE U.S. CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY BROAD UPR RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND LONGWAVE TROUGH OVR NEW ENGLAND. 18Z ANALYSIS INDICATED 1002 MB SFC LOW OVR WRN ONTARIO...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN TO ERN IA. LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR LA CROSSE AND RIPPLING THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT WILL REACH NERN IL BY 00Z. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NOW OVR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF ND IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CWA FROM NW TO SE BTWN 03-08Z TONIGHT. AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY JUST W OF THE MISS RIVER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO NWRN IL THROUGH AFTN. THUS...GREATEST TSRA POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ALONG AND W OF THE I-39 CORRIDOR BEFORE 00Z AND OVR NERN IL AFT THAT. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30KT AND ML CAPE EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CHICAGO AREA...SHOULD SEE A FEW SVR STORMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. UPR RIDGE OFF TO OUR WEST APPROACHING AS SFC HIGH NOSES INTO THE UPR MIDWEST FROM CANADA TOMORROW LATE WED...KEEPING DRY WX IN THE FORECAST LATE WED THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA ARE INDICATED BY THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE CONUS. BOTH MODELS AGREE IN DEVELOPING A LOW OVR WRN KS MON/TUES WITH WARM FRONT ARCING EAST INTO NRN INDY. THESE TWO FACTORS SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST A LIMITED PRECIP CHANCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MON UNTIL BOUNDARY LIFTS INTO SRN WI BY TUES. TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR CLIMO...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO TREND A BIT COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND UNDER NE FLOW. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT TREND...AND MAY NEED TO NUDGE THOSE TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES. RRH && .AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS... 103 PM CDT TIMING AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION MAIN AVIATION FORECAST PROBLEM THIS AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED...REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAVE MOVED EAST INTO DRIER/MUCH MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS OVER FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...DECAYING RAPIDLY WITH JUST SOME SPRINKLES REACHING INTO NERN IL AT 1745 UTC. MORNING RAOB/PROFILER AND WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS INDICATED MINOR SPEED MAX/MID LVL TROUGH CORRELATED WITH THIS ELEVATED BAND OF PRECIP...WITH SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE ACROSS NRN IL AT THIS TIME. RELATIVELY LARGE AREA OF CLRG HAS DVLPD ACRS NRN IL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. THIS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS FAR EAST...WITH FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT IN SHORT TERM MORE LIKELY TO BE BACK INTO EASTERN IOWA ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT/TROUGH. LATEST VIS SAT PICS SHOWING TCU DVLPMNT JUST EAST OF KCID-KALO-KOLZ LINE ALONG BOUNDARY...WHERE DEWPOINTS POOLED IN THE UPPER 60S F. NAM MESO RUN AND CURRENT SPC RUC GRAPHICS SUPPORT INSTABILITY MAXIMA OVER THIS AREA OF EASTERN IA. THEREFORE HAVE PUSHED THUNDER TIMING BACK A COUPLE OF HOURS IN TAFS...TO ALIGN WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE AS SFC TROUGH APPROACHES. WELL DEVELOPED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER UPPER MIDWEST DIPS INTO REGION THIS EVENING...WHICH ALONG WITH MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FEATURES SUGGEST HIGHEST PRECIP THREAT PERHAPS DURING EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY FOR CHI AREA. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH 06 UTC...SO HAVE LINGERED SHRA AND VCSH/TS INTO THE NIGHT. PRECIP THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH PREDAWN HOURS WED AS SFC AND MID LEVEL TROFS/FRONT PASSES. POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR CIG/HZ VCNTY AND POST FROPA EARLY WED MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LGT IN HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. WIND WISE...SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER SW WI THIS MORNING HAVE RESULTED IN A LITTLE STRONGER SSW WIND FIELD ACROSS NRN IL THIS MORNING. GUSTS OBSERVED INTO 20-25 KT RANGE NOTED WHERE SUBSIDENCE/CLRG HAS OCCURRED...AND THIS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THIS AFTN. GRADUAL DECREASE IN SW WINDS THIS EVENING AS GRADIENT RELAXES CLOSER TO SFC TROUGH LINE AND DIURNAL DECOUPLING OCCURS. WIND SHIFT TO NNW APPEARS TO COME AROUND 08 UTC AT KRFD...AROUND 10 UTC DPA/ORD/MDW AREAS. RATZER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LM...NONE. && $$ il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 103 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2006 .DISCUSSION... 103 PM CDT HAVE UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND EXPAND LOW CHANCE POPS INTO NW IND THIS FOR DECAYING LIGHT SHOWERS. RH PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 235 AM CDT ONGOING CONVECTION FROM WESTERN WI INTO NE IA EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR THRU THE MORNING HRS. TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL IA SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD/HALF OF THE CWA AND HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED WITH DRY FORECAST EAST OF ABOUT I-57...WHICH IS ALSO ROUGHLY THE CUT OFF FOR SLGT RISK OF SVR. NOT CONFIDENT ON EXTENT OF MOISTURE RETURN TODAY OR ON AMOUNT OF SUN WITH A THICKENING MID/HIGH LEVEL DECK THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...EVEN THE DRIEST GUIDANCE ADDS ON ANOTHER 10 DEGREES TO THE DEWPOINTS FROM CURRENT LEVELS AND AS PRECIP DIMINISHES THIS MORNING...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO THIN AS WELL. THUS INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SVR STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND SVR THREAT SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. STILL A CHANCE OF PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH BEST CHANCES WILL BE TO THE EAST. FEW CHANGES MADE BEYOND WEDNESDAY. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS REASONABLE. DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO DRY OUT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW THUS WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. FOCUS SHIFTS TO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...THEN NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. LATEST GFS CONTINUES THIS TREND WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOKING VERY WARM. HOWEVER...POSITION/TIMING OF WARM FRONT MAKES ANY SPECIFICS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT. A QUICK COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALSO MEANS HIGH TEMPS MAY BE TOO WARM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NO LARGE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BUILDING EAST...THIS SOLUTION MAY BE THE MOST REASONABLE. HOWEVER...HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THIS TIME PERIOD FOR NOW. && .AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS... 103 PM CDT TIMING AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION MAIN AVIATION FORECAST PROBLEM THIS AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED...REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAVE MOVED EAST INTO DRIER/MUCH MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS OVER FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...DECAYING RAPIDLY WITH JUST SOME SPRINKLES REACHING INTO NERN IL AT 1745 UTC. MORNING RAOB/PROFILER AND WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS INDICATED MINOR SPEED MAX/MID LVL TROUGH CORRELATED WITH THIS ELEVATED BAND OF PRECIP...WITH SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE ACROSS NRN IL AT THIS TIME. RELATIVELY LARGE AREA OF CLRG HAS DVLPD ACRS NRN IL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. THIS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS FAR EAST...WITH FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT IN SHORT TERM MORE LIKELY TO BE BACK INTO EASTERN IOWA ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT/TROUGH. LATEST VIS SAT PICS SHOWING TCU DVLPMNT JUST EAST OF KCID-KALO-KOLZ LINE ALONG BOUNDARY...WHERE DEWPOINTS POOLED IN THE UPPER 60S F. NAM MESO RUN AND CURRENT SPC RUC GRAPHICS SUPPORT INSTABILITY MAXIMA OVER THIS AREA OF EASTERN IA. THEREFORE HAVE PUSHED THUNDER TIMING BACK A COUPLE OF HOURS IN TAFS...TO ALIGN WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE AS SFC TROUGH APPROACHES. WELL DEVELOPED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER UPPER MIDWEST DIPS INTO REGION THIS EVENING...WHICH ALONG WITH MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FEATURES SUGGEST HIGHEST PRECIP THREAT PERHAPS DURING EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY FOR CHI AREA. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH 06 UTC...SO HAVE LINGERED SHRA AND VCSH/TS INTO THE NIGHT. PRECIP THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH PREDAWN HOURS WED AS SFC AND MID LEVEL TROFS/FRONT PASSES. POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR CIG/HZ VCNTY AND POST FROPA EARLY WED MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LGT IN HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. WIND WISE...SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER SW WI THIS MORNING HAVE RESULTED IN A LITTLE STRONGER SSW WIND FIELD ACROSS NRN IL THIS MORNING. GUSTS OBSERVED INTO 20-25 KT RANGE NOTED WHERE SUBSIDENCE/CLRG HAS OCCURRED...AND THIS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THIS AFTN. GRADUAL DECREASE IN SW WINDS THIS EVENING AS GRADIENT RELAXES CLOSER TO SFC TROUGH LINE AND DIURNAL DECOUPLING OCCURS. WIND SHIFT TO NNW APPEARS TO COME AROUND 08 UTC AT KRFD...AROUND 10 UTC DPA/ORD/MDW AREAS. RATZER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LM...NONE. && $$ il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1045 AM CDT TUE JUN 6 2006 .DISCUSSION... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL IOWA. OVERNIGHT MCS THAT DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS TRACKED INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN STEADILY DIMINISHING AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AS EVIDENCED BY THE 12Z KILX SOUNDING. A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION...BOOSTING CURRENT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. WILL UPDATE GRIDS TO RAISE AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE 80S EAST OF I-55...AS THIS AREA WILL LIKELY STAY MOSTLY SUNNY INTO THE AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM AND RUC SHOW CURRENT CONVECTION CONTINUING TO WEAKEN THROUGH 18Z...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RE-DEVLOPMENT UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. NAM SUGGESTS STORMS MAY FIRE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST KILX CWA BY EARLY EVENING. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO CLEAN UP THE WORDING A BIT...GOING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NW ZONES...CHANCE CENTRAL...AND DRY CONDITIONS E/SE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... DRY AIR IN PLACE CONTINUES TO IMPEDE ONSET OF CONVECTION FOR THIS MORNING... AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP THREAT WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR EAST WITH SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A LULL COMES IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... WITH CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASING FOR THE WEEKEND. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY... INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS IOWA HAS SPARKED OFF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER EASTERN IOWA... BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO BUILD SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. LAPS SOUNDINGS FOR GBG INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL WAVE OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY VERY DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIRMASS. IT APPEARS THAT EARLIER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI DISTURBED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ENOUGH TO DECREASE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING MARKEDLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUD COVER FOR THE EARLY PART OF TODAY... AND THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SHOULD RESULT IN GREATER INSTABILITY BY THE AFTERNOON. MID/LOW LEVELS SHOULD MOISTEN IN TIME WITH CONTINUED ADVECTION... ALLOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS MAIN SHORTWAVE SHEARS OFF TO OUT NORTH AND EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS IOWA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. JUDGING BY THE TIMING... PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE I-55 CORRIDOR BEFORE EVENING. WITH MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT STAYING OFF TO OUR NORTH... RESULTANT CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD... SO HAVE USED SCATTERED WORDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUED TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME INITIALIZING THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA... AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT... NOT KEYING IN ON THE INTERRUPTED LOW LEVEL FLOW TO OUR SOUTH DUE TO THE MCS ACTIVITY. MORNING SOUNDINGS WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING HOW FAR EAST PRECIP THREAT WILL EXTEND FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT POPS ALONG THE I-55 CORRIDOR CAN BE CLASSIFIED AS LOW-CONFIDENCE. MODELS HAVE PROVEN TOO QUICK WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS... AND WITH LACK OF A BIG PUSH OVERNIGHT... EXPECT THAT MODELS ARE STILL CLEARING THE COLD FRONT OUT OF THE CWA TOO QUICKLY. AS SUCH... KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR WED NIGHT/THU WHILE SPRAWLING MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING... AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST... BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY SET UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD INVITE PRECIP THREAT... ESPECIALLY IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES DROP IN ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A 20 POP IN FOR FRIDAY... WHEN THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO BEGIN SETTING UP. ETA SEEMS TO BE A LONE OUTLIER IN QUICKLY DEVELOPING A LOW OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY... HOWEVER CAUTION IS URGED SINCE ETA RESOLUTION MAY BE BETTER SUITED TO PICK UP ON SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCES. LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH STATIONARY FRONT IN/NEAR CWA APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND... BUT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGENCE BY SUNDAY WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN QUESTION. GFS HAS ACTUALLY SHOWN BETTER CONTINUITY WITH OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED THE PAST FEW DAYS. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL ENOUGH... SO CHANGES WERE FEW. DID INCREASE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT TO REFLECT HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ BARNES/HARDIMAN il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1035 PM EDT TUE JUN 6 2006 .UPDATE... WILL UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS TO LOWER POPS FROM LIKELY IN THE WEST TO SCATTERED WORDING (40 PERCENT). THE FAR SOUTHEAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. WEAK LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST...COUPLED WITH SOME LIFT FROM AN APCHING VORT LOBE...SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE LIKELY WORDING MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. LATEST RUC AND 00Z NAM SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE DEVELOP ACRS THE REGION BETWEEN 5 AM AND 6 AM EDT...SO WILL LEAVE WEDNESDAY/S FCST IN TACT ATTM. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S STILL LOOK GOOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... AVIATION... POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL BE MAIN PLAYER FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE. EARLY EVENING RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER CLUSTER OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA IN REGION OF POOLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IMPINGING COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE LINE STRUGGLING TO FILL IN FARTHER NORTH ALONG COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS ABUNDANT AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER HAS SEVERELY LIMITED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. DO EXPECT THIS AREA TO GRADUALLY FILL IN AND CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AND BETTER MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. LEFT PREVIOUS TIMING INTACT FOR PRECIPITATION AT SOUTH BEND AND PUSHED BACK TIMING OF TEMPO GROUP AT FORT WAYNE BY AN HOUR. GIVEN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TIMING AND STRUGGLING NATURE OF ONGOING CONVECTION...HAVE LEFT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF TAFS. SOME CONCERN OF RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE GENERATED AHEAD OF FRONT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS BEGIN TO WEAKEN. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME AS CONCERN THAT MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL NOT ALLOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO BE GENERATED. SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING CONVECTION INITIALLY STABILIZED UPSTREAM AIRMASS OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN. SUNSHINE BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOWING FOR MODEST WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION. CONVECTION NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE BASED COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN IOWA AT 1930Z. MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT AND WED IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. EXPECT CONVECTION TO EXPAND UPSCALE THIS EVENING WITH AN AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS OVERSPREADING THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW OHIO WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED FROM DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING AND WILL LIKELY STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. STORMS MAY BE INITIALLY SEVERE UPSTREAM...BUT UNFAVORABLE LATE NIGHT TIMING AND LACK OF WELL DEFINED FLOW FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS FAR EAST OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION TOMORROW. STILL EXPECT SOME RAIN FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT CLEARING/SUNSHINE FOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. IF ENOUGH SUN BREAKS OUT IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION COULD POTENTIALLY SEE STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA JUST AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. NEW SWODY2 OUTLOOK PLACES THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION. PRIMARY MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM APPEARS TO LAG SURFACE FRONT WITH ONLY MARGINAL FLOW FOR HIGHER ORDER STORM ORGANIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR. LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FIRST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS RAIN CHANCES AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WED NGT. WELL DEFINED AND COMPACT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SHORTWAVE TAIL EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ONGOING CONVECTION FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE SHORT TERM WILL COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR WED EVENING. IF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS CORRECT IN RE-DEVELOPING CONVECTION UPSTREAM THIS EVENING AND BRINGING AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS THE CWA WED...DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE WED AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN WEAKENING SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. GIVEN WEAKENING OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND QUESTIONABLE DESTABILIZATION WED PM...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY WED NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN STILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. BY SUN OR EARLY NEXT WEEK PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE AS THE DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ROCKIES BEGINS TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO ACTIVE PACIFIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES. SOME BIGGER DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE ITERATIONS TODAY WITH THE DETAILS OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLUTION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT GENERAL IDEA OF A MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NW IS STILL INTACT. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL BE EJECTED OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SPREADING WITH TIME INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE EXPECT A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AND BECOME E/W IN ORIENTATION. THE 00Z/06 GFS NOW PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION...BUT CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUPPORT A MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT WITH THE FRONT STALLING NEAR OUR LATITUDE. CURRENTLY GULF INFLOW IS BEING IMPAIRED BY LARGE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE GREATLY NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH BUILDS EAST AND ALLOWS FOR SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SUN THROUGH MON NGT BUT WILL OPT TO LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR TUE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH FRONTAL POSITION AT THIS TIME RANGE. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HICKMAN SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK AVIATION...BOGUTH in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1048 AM CDT TUE JUN 6 2006 .UPDATE... TODAY: MESO-HIGH THAT FORMED IN WAKE OF DEPARTING & WEAKENING MCS HAS STABILIZED AIRMASS OVER SE KS. AS SUCH HAVE REMOVED MORNING TSRA FROM PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED AREAS. HOWEVER...WEAK COLD FRONT VENTURING SE TOWARD SC & SE KS MAY SPARK NEW CONVECTION OVER AREAS GENERALLY ALONG & SE OF KS TURNPIKE THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH HAVE RETAINED GENERIC 20-30% POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POP ASSIGNED TO SE KS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT TUE JUN 6 2006/ UPDATE... SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAN UP SEVERAL PRODUCTS...ACCOUNTING FOR CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS. MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A SLIGHTLY LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IT SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY 8-9 AM. ADK && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT TUE JUN 6 2006/ DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS WILL BE ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST ALONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT...GIVEN GOOD SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS MAY BE SPARED THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY...AS BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY (PER RUC) AND LAPS REMAINS WEST OF THERE. EFFECTIVE CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR IS FAIRLY DECENT...SO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH EARLY-MID MORNING. THEREAFTER...COMPLEX SHOULD EXIT KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA OR MISSOURI. MASSIVE MESO HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST IN WAKE OF THE MCS...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK SYNOPTIC SURFACE TROUGH (STILL CURRENTLY OVER NEBRASKA) WILL PROGRESS INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN TAKE PLACE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS WEAK BOUNDARY FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. IF ANYTHING CAN GO UP...ENOUGH SHEAR (AND MAYBE INSTABILITY) WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. HOWEVER...AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE ENOUGH...NOR THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY WILL BE SUFFICIENT. NONETHELESS...THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST...AND POSITION ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...RESULTING IN 90+ TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH PLAINS LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GIVEN PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGH AND EXTREME SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WARM LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PRECLUDE THIS ACTIVITY FROM PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME HOURS INTO THE CWA. BY SATURDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN...IN RESPONSE TO A DEPARTING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...AND APPROACHING NORTHWEST CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE AREA BY SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF KANSAS. DUE TO SHORT-TERM WEATHER CONCERNS...WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO ASSESS FURTHER FOR POSSIBLE POP INSERTION. ADK && PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 90 64 91 64 / 20 5 0 5 HUTCHINSON 90 64 92 64 / 10 5 0 5 NEWTON 89 64 90 64 / 20 5 0 5 ELDORADO 89 64 90 63 / 30 5 0 5 WINFIELD-KWLD 90 65 90 64 / 30 10 0 5 RUSSELL 91 63 93 65 / 5 0 0 10 GREAT BEND 91 63 93 65 / 5 5 0 10 SALINA 89 63 91 64 / 5 5 0 5 MCPHERSON 90 64 92 64 / 10 5 0 5 COFFEYVILLE 88 65 88 63 / 40 10 0 0 CHANUTE 87 65 88 62 / 30 5 0 0 IOLA 87 64 88 62 / 30 5 0 0 PARSONS-KPPF 87 65 88 63 / 40 10 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 551 AM CDT TUE JUN 6 2006 .UPDATE... SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAN UP SEVERAL PRODUCTS...ACCOUNTING FOR CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS. MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A SLIGHTLY LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IT SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY 8-9 AM. ADK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT TUE JUN 6 2006/ DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS WILL BE ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST ALONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT...GIVEN GOOD SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS MAY BE SPARED THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY...AS BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY (PER RUC) AND LAPS REMAINS WEST OF THERE. EFFECTIVE CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR IS FAIRLY DECENT...SO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH EARLY-MID MORNING. THEREAFTER...COMPLEX SHOULD EXIT KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA OR MISSOURI. MASSIVE MESO HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST IN WAKE OF THE MCS...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK SYNOPTIC SURFACE TROUGH (STILL CURRENTLY OVER NEBRASKA) WILL PROGRESS INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN TAKE PLACE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS WEAK BOUNDARY FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. IF ANYTHING CAN GO UP...ENOUGH SHEAR (AND MAYBE INSTABILITY) WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. HOWEVER...AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE ENOUGH...NOR THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY WILL BE SUFFICIENT. NONETHELESS...THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST...AND POSITION ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...RESULTING IN 90+ TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH PLAINS LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GIVEN PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGH AND EXTREME SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WARM LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PRECLUDE THIS ACTIVITY FROM PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME HOURS INTO THE CWA. BY SATURDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN...IN RESPONSE TO A DEPARTING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...AND APPROACHING NORTHWEST CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE AREA BY SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF KANSAS. DUE TO SHORT-TERM WEATHER CONCERNS...WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO ASSESS FURTHER FOR POSSIBLE POP INSERTION. ADK && PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 90 64 91 64 / 20 5 0 5 HUTCHINSON 90 64 92 64 / 10 5 0 5 NEWTON 89 64 90 64 / 20 5 0 5 ELDORADO 89 64 90 63 / 30 5 0 5 WINFIELD-KWLD 90 65 90 64 / 30 10 0 5 RUSSELL 91 63 93 65 / 5 0 0 10 GREAT BEND 91 63 93 65 / 5 5 0 10 SALINA 89 63 91 64 / 5 5 0 5 MCPHERSON 90 64 92 64 / 10 5 0 5 COFFEYVILLE 88 65 88 63 / 40 10 0 0 CHANUTE 87 65 88 62 / 30 5 0 0 IOLA 87 64 88 62 / 30 5 0 0 PARSONS-KPPF 87 65 88 63 / 40 10 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1036 AM CDT TUE JUN 6 2006 .UPDATE... 12Z NAM 12KM HAS ROLLED IN. IT COMBINED WITH LATEST RUC OUTPUT SHOWS AN EVEN LOWER CHANCE OF CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA. PREVIOUS MODELS...TO SAY THE LEAST...HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THINGS WELL UP TO THIS POINT. AS A RESULT...WILL TRIM POPS BACK AND SHIFT HIGHER VALUES FURTHER WEST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE WE WILL LOWER POPS...WE PROBABLY WILL NOT RE-ORIENT THE AREA WHERE WE THINK THERE IS A CHANCE...TO PLAY IT SAFE FOR NOW. GFS NUMERICAL OUTPUT FROM YESTERDAY WILL BE A BUST...AS FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN HAS WARMED MOST AREAS INTO THE 70S. READINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PARALLEL MORE CLOSELY THE NAM / AND FWC OUTPUT. UPDATES TO ALL PRODUCTS TO BE OUT SHORTLY. && .405 AM DISCUSSION... OVERALL PATTERN FOR THIS WEEK WILL BE THE EXPANSION OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE INTO THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA...LEADING TOWARD WARM AND DRIER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IN THE SHORT TERM...VARIOUS IMPULSES WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN LIMB OF THE RIDGE...PRESENTING AN INTERESTING PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WORKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST IMPULSE...THAT CAUSED SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN MIDWEST AND WESTERN MO WILL DAMPEN OUT AT IS MOVES THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS MOVING TOWARD A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO AN OVERALL INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 57 THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONTEGENETIC FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUSED LIFT FOR CONVECTION. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED IN NATURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ADJUSTING FOR DIURNAL INFLUENCES OF ON-GOING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. GIVEN THE BETTER PERFORMANCE OF THE ECMWF ON A SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES...I HAVE BLENDED IT WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS FOR WEDNESDAY..AS SHARPER BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. FOR THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREAS...THIS MEANS A MORE DISTINCT CUT OFF OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER SERN MO...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN KY AND SWRN IN...CLOSE TO THE COVERAGE AREA OUTLOOKED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE GONE FROM THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. I HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA...SPREADING SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES FLATTEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A MODIFIED SW FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...I HAVE STRONGLY LEANED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DEEPER ECMWF FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SMITH/CN ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1102 AM EDT TUE JUN 6 2006 .UPDATE... MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH SFC TROF EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN MN. WV LOOP SHOWING S/WV WITH CORRESPONDING UPPER LOW MOVING SEWD TOWARDS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AND WILL BE MOVING OVER THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE APPROACH OF BETTER DYNAMICS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE JUST WEST OF THE FA WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY NOW PUSHING INTO WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY AND OUR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ZONES. VIS IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF CLOUDS NOW COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR EAST AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO LIMIT INSTABILITY/TEMP RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADJUST FCST HIGHS DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ALREADY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ONGOING POP FCST LOOKS GOOD. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL PRETTY LOW BUT AS COLD POOL ALOFT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON A FEW SMALL HAIL REPORTS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. MZ .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 420 AM EDT TUE JUN 6 2006) SYNOPSIS... MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ONGOING FM S MANITOBA INTO MUCH OF MN/WI S INTO IA/MO/KS. PRIMARY SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDS FM LOW PRES OVR SE MANITOBA THROUGH RED RIVER VALLEY INTO SE NEB AND CNTRL KS. YDY AFTN TEMPS AHEAD/BEHIND BOUNDARY WERE SIMILAR. BOUNDARY IS BASICALLY A DRY LINE WITH DWPNTS FALLING INTO 40S OVR DAKOTAS WHILE WITHIN ABOUT 300 MILES OF THE BOUNDARY DWPNTS ARE AOA 60 DEGREES. DRY AIR STILL RESIDES OVR GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRES ONLY IS SLOWLY EDGING E. DRY AIR THUS FAR IS INHIBITING E PROGRESS OF PCPN. RAIN IS ATTM ONLY EDGING INTO FAR W UPR MI/CNTRL WI. WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE OVR FAR S MANITOBA WITH SMALLER CONVECTIVE SHORTWAVES OVR E MN AND N IA. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE SLIDES ESE INTO W UPR MI THIS AFTN THEN OVR REST OF UPR MI TONIGHT. COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FOCUS UNTIL SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH EXIT AREA ON WED. DISCUSSION... SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FM NAM/GFS AND RUC ALL SEEM TO BE ON SAME PAGE WITH EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH NEXT 24 HRS. NAM HAS BACKED AWAY FM EARLIER SOLNS OF SHORTWAVE PEELING OFF SHARPLY INTO CNTRL WI BY THIS AFTN WITH MOST PCPN MISSING MAJORITY OF UPR MI. HIGHER POPS SEEM ON TRACK BY MID AFTN FOR W HALF OF CWA. INITIAL AREA OF CONVECTION IS SLIDING SE INTO WI IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BETTER FEED OF SFC DWPNTS AOA 60 DEGREES. SHOWERS/THUNDER OVR NE MN SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO LIFT NE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE OVR NE MN LIFTS NE. INITIAL REMNANTS OF CONVECTION OVR FAR N WI MAY AFFECT SW CWA THIS MORNING BUT OTHERWISE...SINCE MUCAPE IS MINIMAL AND BEST THETA-E ADVECTION IS TO SW...MAJORITY OF CWA WILL REMAIN DRY EARLY THIS MORNING. KEPT 20-40 POPS THOUGH WITH RUC SHOWING ELEVATED CAPES UP TO 500J/KG AND A HINT OF A WIND SHIFT AT 925MB TRYING TO PRESS INTO CWA. BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS THIS AFTN AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PLOWING INTO W LK SUPERIOR AND W UPR MI AND H3 JET OF 70KT SHIFTS INTO N MN PLACING UPR MI WITHIN LFQ OF JET. H85 WIND SHIFT PROGGED OVR W CWA BY 18Z AND CNTRL BY 00Z. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO ACT AS TRIGGER FOR DEEP CONVECTION. GFS/NAM BOTH INDICATE DWPNTS 65-70 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTN OVR FAR W. VALUES THIS HIGH ARE LIKELY OVERDONE BUT AS SHOWERS AFFECT AREA NEXT 6-12 HRS SOME MOISTENING WILL OCCUR AS IS SEEM UPSTREAM ATTM. MODIFIED 18Z GFS SOUNDING AT IWD FOR T/TD OF 74/62 AND THIS YIELDS CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND LI/S -6C. STRENGTH OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MARKEDLY BY MID AFTN. MIXING TO H9 GIVES TEMPS INTO MID 70S AT LEAST AND WENT NEAR 80 FOR NCNTRL AND EAST AREAS SINCE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE THIS MORNING AND TEMPS ARE STARTING OFF IN 60S. PVA FM INCOMING STRONG SHORTWAVE...POOLING OF H85 DWPTS OF +12C... LFQ OF 70KT H3 JET...AND H85 WIND SHIFT ALL TRANSLATE OVR UPR MI THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY...SFC BASED OR ELEVATED...IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY OVR E HALF. EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE TO SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER AS THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE CONVERGE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR EVENING. SOME AREAS MAY NEED A FURTHER BOOST TO POPS AS IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RAIN. AREA OF BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE TIED TO ONGOING CONVECTION SO DID NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC ATTM. MOS POPS ABOVE 60 FOR CNTRL/EAST LOOK REASONABLE. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG WI BORDER BUT EVEN THERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING SO CHANCES OF SVR CONVECTION INTO CWA APPEAR SLIM. PWATS TO 1.50 INCHES (NEARLY 200 PCT OF NORMAL FM MPX AT 00Z)...K-INDEXES AOA 30...FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 13KFT...AND SHORT/BACKBUILDING CORFIDI VECTORS THIS AFTN-EVENING SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN IS PRIMARY HAZARD FM THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVR MAJORITY OF CWA. SFC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH W AND C CWA BY 12Z WED AND OUT OF E ZONES BY MID AFTN. KEPT POPS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BUT OTHERWISE WENT DRY FOR WED. LINGERING WARM AIR DESPITE WIND SHIFT AND THUS EXPECT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S WITH SOME LWR 80S IN DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS OF SCNTRL CWA. SHORTWAVE THEN ROTATES TOWARD E LK SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. MAY BE SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IN THE EVENING...DRY OTHERWISE. FINALLY...PULLED POPS ON THU AS SFC HIGH IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY TO THE UPR LAKES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LESS THAN MOIST ADIABATIC. NO OTHER CHANGES TO FCST WERE NEEDED. COORD WITH GRB. MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 957 AM CDT TUE JUN 6 2006 .DISCUSSION... THE UPSTREAM COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA OVER MAINLY WRN HALF OF AR BEING HANDLED BEST BY WRF_NMM AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IN THESE NW FLOW SITUATIONS. 09Z RUC PRETTY MUCH USELESS THIS TIME AROUND. LOOK FOR MCS TO BUILD INTO SERN AR AND NE LA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HOLD MAINLY W OF THE MS RIVER BEFORE SUNSET. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS/WEB GRAPHICS TO EXPAND PRECIP COVERAGE AND BOOST POPS IN THOSE AREAS. LAST NIGHT/S 00Z GFS APPEARS ERRONEOUSLY DRY AND WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE EWD PUSH OF THE RAINS TONIGHT AS 06Z GFS SHOWING BETTER COVERAGE FROM 09-18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE ON THIS LATER. NEW ZONES WILL BE COMING OUT SHORTLY./40/ && .AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH INCREASING ANVIL CIRRUS OVERSPREADING REGION FROM NW TO SE. WILL PROBABLY INTRODUCE LOWER 3-5K BROKEN CUMULUS ALONG MS RIVER FOR THE 18Z TAFS ALONG WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AFTER 21Z. PLENTY OF ALTOCU AND CIRROSTRATUS TONIGHT WITH ANY RAIN HOLDING W OF I-55./40/ .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 88 64 87 67 / 3 22 14 3 MERIDIAN 89 60 86 64 / 1 7 13 5 VICKSBURG 86 65 91 71 / 10 49 14 2 HATTIESBURG 89 61 88 65 / 1 6 23 8 NATCHEZ 88 65 87 69 / 8 50 22 3 GREENVILLE 85 66 91 68 / 52 52 5 1 GREENWOOD 89 62 88 67 / 19 40 10 2 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 1155 AM MDT TUE JUN 6 2006 .UPDATE...INCREASED HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. && .PREV DISCUSSION...328 AM MDT TUE JUN 6 2006. MODELS IN DISARRAY THIS MORNING AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOW TO MODERATE SIDE WITH RESPECT TO QPF OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. FORECAST ISSUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONCERN POSITION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE AND RESULTING PCPN CHANCES. RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY HAS UPPER HIGH BISECTING THE STATE...STRETCHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE SE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING SE ACROSS KS/OK AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...A COMPLEX MOVING NW FROM SONORA INTO SRN AZ. THIS MOISTURE SURGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF UPR HIGH COULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON POPS LATER IN THE WORK WEEK. SFC FEATURE...ENHANCED BY EVENING CONVECTION OVER SE COLORADO...IS PRESENTLY LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM KLVS TO KTCC. BOUNDARY PROGGED BY THE GFS TO WASH OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH NAM PLOWING BOUNDARY THROUGH THE ERN PLAINS. ATTM...WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS AND HOLD OFF BELOW CANYON WINDS UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE HRS. CONVECTION WILL FIRE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AS WELL AS THE NE HIGHLANDS TODAY. STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE ON THE CHAOTIC SIDE AS RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THIS AREA BY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE HIGH BASED THIS AFTERNOON WITH PULSE TYPE SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME A COMPONENT OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AROUND 00Z. HIGHS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER IN THE NE CORNER OF THE STATE AS 700MB TEMPS DROP ON THE ORDER OF 2-5C. MAX READINGS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE SHOULD BE COMPARABLE OR A TOUCH COOLER. ISOLD STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER GILA THIS AFTERNOON AS ERN FRINGE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE COULD CLIP THE REGION. WITH A DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDINGS...EXPECT LITTLE OR NO QPF AND GUSTY WINDS. WILL HIGHLIGHT GUSTY WINDS IN THE HWO/ZFP. EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE TO WORK TOWARD THE CONT DIVIDE TONIGHT... INCREASING POP CHANCES OVER THE NW ZONES TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE FOR WED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER AZ TO WORK INTO WRN NM BY LATE IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE WEST TOMORROW WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH CONVECTION FIRES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO BE AROUND ONE HALF AN INCH... HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE AOB 550MB. DRY INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDING WILL PROMOTE GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT QPF. WILL SIDE WITH THE MAV POP GUIDANCE WHICH IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE MET ACROSS THE WRN ZONES AND INSERT DRY WORDING FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE CONT DIVIDE AS 700MB DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL REMAIN AOA 18C. RIDGE SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW MOISTURE AXIS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS WRN NM ON THU. RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THIS REGION... MAINLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND POTENTIAL IS STILL EVIDENT ON MET SOUNDINGS. BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF WET/DRY STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE WEST WITH SOME RECOVERY INTO THE UPPER 90S IN THE EAST COMPLIMENTS OF A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. ISOLATED/SCATTERED PCPN CHANCES STILL APPEAR REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL SW GRADIENT INCREASES FOR THE WEEKEND...A TYPICAL DRYING PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE. DEVIATION FROM MEXMOS NOT REQUIRED FOR THE FAR EXTENDED PERIODS. DPORTER && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 46/23 nm AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 955 AM CDT TUE JUN 6 2006 FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS WIND...TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES OVER FAR NE. WINDS STARTING TO KICK UP AND WITH ADIABATIC LAYER TO 700MB AND 30-35 KTS TO MIX DOWN LOOKING FOR BREEZY/WINDY DAY. THIS HANDLED WELL BY CURRENT FORECAST. SMALL BAND OF SC LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION WILL HAVE A MINOR AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES TODAY. OVERALL CURRENT TRENDS LINING UP WELL SO ANY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MINOR. STILL A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT PCPN POTENTIAL OVER FAR NE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS DROPPING WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND WATER VAPOR LOOP HINTING AT SOME DARKENING. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME INSTABILITY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S. CAPE PRETTY MINOR...ABOUT 200J/KG AND SURFACE RELECTION LACKING. WILL KEEP UPDATE DRY BUT WILL MONITOR. OVERALL ONLY MINOR CHANGES PLANNED. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ VOELKER nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1058 AM EDT TUE JUN 6 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY COVER...WINDS. STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW LOW DEWOINTS WILL MIX OUT TO. CURRENT TREND LOOKS GOOD SO WILL LEAVE DEWPOINTS ALONE. 12Z RUC/NAM STILL SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG EASTERN PERIPHERY OF FORECAST AREA IN THE NC PIEDMONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM EDT TUE JUN 6 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... CWFA IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE IS PROGD TO CONTINUE A SOUTHEAST DRIFT TODAY...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ADJACENT TO THE COAST. MODELS HAVE REVERSED THEIR TRENDS FROM YESTERDAY...WITH GFS NOW BRINGING THE SURFACE WAVE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND NAM KEEPING IT WELL OFFSHORE. VORT LOBE ALSO EXPECTED TO TREK SOUTH TOWARD THE CWFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH EASTERN AREAS PROGD TO REMAIN IN THE MEAN EAST COAST TROF. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT EXPECTED TO TODAY IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE TODAY FROM THE EASTERN MOST FOOTHILLS EAST TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. CURRENT FORECAST FEATURES CHANCE FOR OUR EASTERN MOST ZONES IN NORTH CAROLINA; WE WILL EXTEND THOSE CHANCES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. POPS IN SINGLE DIGITS TO ZERO FOR THE SOUTHWEST CWFA. COMPLICATING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE WESTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED DEEP MIXING AGAIN TODAY. FORECAST DEWPOINTS FOR MONDAY WERE OFF AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN-MOST UPSTATE. MODELS STRONGLY IMPLY DEWPOINT RECOVERY TODAY DESPITE THE DOMINATING...AND NORMALLY-DRYING...NORTHERLY FLOW. WRF DOES DRY THE DEWPOINTS A BIT MORE THAN EITHER GFS/NAM...AND WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WRF NUMBERS BUT LOWER A FEW MORE TICKS IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...WITH SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITES PROGD AROUND 25 TO 30% AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THUS...DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE IN THESE AREAS...LENDING CONFIDENCE TO OUR VERY LOW POP FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS A TAD HIGHER TODAY...70S ACROSS THE NORTH (EXCEPT FOR 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS) AND THROUGH THE LOWER 80S IN THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. WE WILL AGAIN FEATURE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS THROUGH THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND WE FEATURE A PRETTY MUCH DRY OVERNIGHT. BY THE END OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN IN THE WEST AND SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR CWFA. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME QUITE LARGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. OLD UPPER LOW PROGD TO SWING UP THE COASTLINE...KEEPING CWFA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS PROGD TO APPROACH THE REGION ON THE 00Z NAM BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH EVER INCREASING WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. GFS HAS A SIMILAR SCENARIO...BUT WITH A TIMING OFFSET OF 12 TO 18 HOURS FROM THE GFS. BOTH AGREE THAT THURSDAY WILL FEATURE AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH SHORTWAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED BACK-DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN SUCH A SETUP...WE WOULD EXPECT SOME KIND OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE...AND BOTH MODELS DO FEATURE SUCH...ALBEIT WITH THEIR TIMING DIFFERENCES. NEEDLESS TO SAY...AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS TO ENSUE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND TO THE FOOTHILLS AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS WILL GET A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...THEN WE LIMIT CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EASTERN AREAS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRYING EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY NITE WITH THIS PACKAGE. AVIATION... MOISTURE IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER CONT TO WRAP SOUTHWARD INTO THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE 700 MB LOW CENTER MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE NC COASTAL PLAIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THIS MOIST BAND ARE BEING FUELED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...BUT OMEGA AND MOISTURE STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH 12Z. MOST TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE THAN SCT CLOUDS AT 7K TO 10K FT. FAIRLY DEEP MIXING IS APPARENT IN THE SOUNDINGS AGAIN FOR TODAY...BUT WITH LESS SPEED AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. WILL LIMIT GUSTS TO KCLT AND KAVL FOR NOW. ONLY FEW TO SCT CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE DRY SFC DEWPOINTS...BUT SOME PIEDMONT FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WEST OF THE LOW CENTER COULD LEAD TO A LATE AFTN VFR CIG AT KCLT. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LG sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 123 PM EDT TUE JUN 6 2006 .AVIATION... CU FIELDS AGAIN INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO PREVAIL UNTIL LOSS OF HEATING. STILL SHOULD SEE MOST MAINTAIN VFR LEVELS WITH 4-7K CEILINGS ESPCLY OVER EASTERN SITES. ISOLATED MVFR IN SHRA ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY LYH-DAN CORRIDOR SO WILL INCLUDE VICINITY MENTION EASTERN SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 10- 20 KTS LIKELY UNTIL EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY FADE THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO FOG LATE TONIGHT ESPCLY LWB/LYH/DAN WHERE MVFR/OCNL IFR LIKELY. REPEAT OF CU DEVELOPMENT WED MORNING BUT NOT AS FAST OR EXPANSIVE AS THE LAST FEW DAYS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1011 AM EDT TUE JUN 6 2006) SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... UPPER LOW NOW OVER EASTERN NC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST FINALLY EXITING THE COAST THIS EVENING. 12Z RAOBS SHOW A LESS SATURATED COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THAN MON WITH DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF S/W THAT PASSED SOUTH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WATER VAPOR PICS STILL INDICATING STRETCHED OUT AXIS OF WEAK ENERGY ROTATING THRU THE REGION ON THE BACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. THIS IN COMBO WITH BETTER HEATING THIS AFTERNOON THAN YDA SUPPORTS SOME LOW CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAINLY EASTERN HALF CLOSER TO BETTER RH AND DEPARTING COLD 5H POCKET ALOFT. MODIFIED RAOBS ALSO A BIT M0RE UNSTABLE EAST WITH WARMER LEVELS ALOFT LIKELY LIMITING COVERAGE FAR WEST WHERE LESS FOCUS. LATEST WRF/RUC SHOW MAINLY SPOTTY -SHRA ESPCLY SE SO PLAN TO KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ABOUT STATUS QUO. WILL TWEAK SKY CONDITIONS TOWARD MORE SUN EARLY ON AS WELL AS BOOSTING HIGH TEMPS SOME PER MORE SUN EARLY AND CURRENT THICKNESS PUSHING 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 640 AM EDT TUE JUN 6 2006) AVIATION... EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH SOME REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE EAST OF DANVILLE. MAINLY JUST SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR VALLEY FOG IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. LOOKS LIKE FOG IS SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT BLF WILL BE VFR BY 13Z IF NOT ALREADY VFR AT THE 12Z ISSUANCE. THE FOG IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS A LOT THICKER AND MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATELLITE...SO I EXPECT LWB TO TAKE A FEW HOURS TO BREAK OUT TO VFR. HAVE MADE THEM VFR AT 15Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE FOOTHILL SAND PIEDMONT. BEST CHANCES TO SEE SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE DAN AND LYH...FOLLOWED BY ROA AND LWB. LOOKS LIKE A VERY LOW CHANCE AT BLF. THINK TSTM CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO JUST INCLUDE A CB ON THE CLOUD GROUP AT THIS POINT. THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE OVER AROUND 00Z...THOUGH COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH FEWER CLOUDS BRINGING BETTER RADIATION CONDITIONS. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 6 2006) SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWARD SINCE MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AT THIS TIME...AND THE MODELS SHOW THE LOW BEGINNING TO DRIFT MORE EASTWARD TODAY AS THE SHORT WAVE SWINGS NORTHWARD. SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING IN THE LOW MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. ALL MODELS SHOW THIS CONVERGENCE AREA TO SET UP ALONG MY EASTERN MTN ZONES AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. SINCE WE HAVE HAD SUCH GOOD COVERAGE WITH THE SAME FEATURE FROM YESTERDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...I HAVE RAISED POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION IS NC MTNS...SW VA MTNS AND SE WV...WHICH I THINK GETS INTO A WEAK SUBSIDENCE AREA SINCE AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. I KEPT THE POPS GOING FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING...AND THEN DECREASED THEM OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. AS FOR TEMPS...SINCE MOS HAS BEEN TOO COOL ON BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS SINCE THE CUT OFF LOW HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA...I GENERALLY WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS. OF COURSE...A LOT DEPENDS ON SKY COVER. I AM BANKING ON SOME SUN TODAY AND SOME CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS THE OLD CUT OFF UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND LIFTS NEWD WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SMALL BUT POTENT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW WHICH SHOWS UP WELL ON WATER VAPOR EARLY THIS MORNING OVER ND/MN SINKS SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PUTS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS...AND MODELS DO SHOW SOME PRECIP...SO I HAVE PUT IN LOW CHC POPS IN THE MTNS FROM WED AFT INTO WED NIGHT...AND A SLIGHT CHC POP FURTHER EAST. BY THU THERE ARE A LOT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE...BUT THERE IS A BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WHICH EITHER APPROACHES OR MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS ENOUGH TO PUT IN LOW CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THU AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND THU NIGHT. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ JH va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1011 AM EDT TUE JUN 6 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... UPPER LOW NOW OVER EASTERN NC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST FINALLY EXITING THE COAST THIS EVENING. 12Z RAOBS SHOW A LESS SATURATED COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THAN MON WITH DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF S/W THAT PASSED SOUTH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WATER VAPOR PICS STILL INDICATING STRETCHED OUT AXIS OF WEAK ENERGY ROTATING THRU THE REGION ON THE BACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. THIS IN COMBO WITH BETTER HEATING THIS AFTERNOON THAN YDA SUPPORTS SOME LOW CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAINLY EASTERN HALF CLOSER TO BETTER RH AND DEPARTING COLD 5H POCKET ALOFT. MODIFIED RAOBS ALSO A BIT M0RE UNSTABLE EAST WITH WARMER LEVELS ALOFT LIKELY LIMITING COVERAGE FAR WEST WHERE LESS FOCUS. LATEST WRF/RUC SHOW MAINLY SPOTTY -SHRA ESPCLY SE SO PLAN TO KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ABOUT STATUS QUO. WILL TWEAK SKY CONDITIONS TOWARD MORE SUN EARLY ON AS WELL AS BOOSTING HIGH TEMPS SOME PER MORE SUN EARLY AND CURRENT THICKNESS PUSHING 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 640 AM EDT TUE JUN 6 2006) AVIATION... EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH SOME REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE EAST OF DANVILLE. MAINLY JUST SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR VALLEY FOG IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. LOOKS LIKE FOG IS SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT BLF WILL BE VFR BY 13Z IF NOT ALREADY VFR AT THE 12Z ISSUANCE. THE FOG IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS A LOT THICKER AND MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATELLITE...SO I EXPECT LWB TO TAKE A FEW HOURS TO BREAK OUT TO VFR. HAVE MADE THEM VFR AT 15Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE FOOTHILL SAND PIEDMONT. BEST CHANCES TO SEE SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE DAN AND LYH...FOLLOWED BY ROA AND LWB. LOOKS LIKE A VERY LOW CHANCE AT BLF. THINK TSTM CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO JUST INCLUDE A CB ON THE CLOUD GROUP AT THIS POINT. THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE OVER AROUND 00Z...THOUGH COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH FEWER CLOUDS BRINGING BETTER RADIATION CONDITIONS. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 333 AM EDT TUE JUN 6 2006) SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWARD SINCE MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AT THIS TIME...AND THE MODELS SHOW THE LOW BEGINNING TO DRIFT MORE EASTWARD TODAY AS THE SHORT WAVE SWINGS NORTHWARD. SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING IN THE LOW MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. ALL MODELS SHOW THIS CONVERGENCE AREA TO SET UP ALONG MY EASTERN MTN ZONES AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. SINCE WE HAVE HAD SUCH GOOD COVERAGE WITH THE SAME FEATURE FROM YESTERDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...I HAVE RAISED POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION IS NC MTNS...SW VA MTNS AND SE WV...WHICH I THINK GETS INTO A WEAK SUBSIDENCE AREA SINCE AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. I KEPT THE POPS GOING FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING...AND THEN DECREASED THEM OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. AS FOR TEMPS...SINCE MOS HAS BEEN TOO COOL ON BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS SINCE THE CUT OFF LOW HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA...I GENERALLY WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS. OF COURSE...A LOT DEPENDS ON SKY COVER. I AM BANKING ON SOME SUN TODAY AND SOME CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS THE OLD CUT OFF UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND LIFTS NEWD WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SMALL BUT POTENT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW WHICH SHOWS UP WELL ON WATER VAPOR EARLY THIS MORNING OVER ND/MN SINKS SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PUTS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS...AND MODELS DO SHOW SOME PRECIP...SO I HAVE PUT IN LOW CHC POPS IN THE MTNS FROM WED AFT INTO WED NIGHT...AND A SLIGHT CHC POP FURTHER EAST. BY THU THERE ARE A LOT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE...BUT THERE IS A BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WHICH EITHER APPROACHES OR MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS ENOUGH TO PUT IN LOW CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THU AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND THU NIGHT. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ JH va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 215 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2006 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT. NAM ETA/WRF BOTH VERIFIED WELL WITH BAND OF MORNING SHOWERS WEAKENING AS IT PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAIN PROBLEM IS ON HOW QUICK/OF IF THE STRATO CUMULUS BECOMES SCATTERED SO INSTABILITY CAN INCREASE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE NEAR W TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ADVANCING JET WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING. LEFT FRONT QUAD TO AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE JET AXIS BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS. CURRENT RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH HEATING TO GENERATE CAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WI...WITH MORE OF A CAP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS IN THE AROUND 26 AND 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 150 M2/S2 ARE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS. DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN WI AS SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD MICHIGAN. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9.5 THSD FT. EXPECT SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROF LATER THIS AFT AND INTO THE EVENING. WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE IN ZFP DUE TO MARGINAL WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT AND SEVERITY...BUT SOME STORMS MAY STILL BECOME SEVERE...AGAIN DEPENDING ON RECOVERY OF LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. DESPITE RATHER STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DRY AIR...ESPECIALLY IN MID LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY WEDNESDAY. PREFER GFS WITH UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR WED/THU WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY. NAM SEEMS WAY TOO FAR NORTHEAST WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. A MORE ZONAL FLOW LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON UPSTREAM OFFICES...LATEST GFS WOULD INDICATE SURFACE HIGH TO DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ HENTZ wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 135 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2006 .AVIATION... LOW PRES OVER ERN WI WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO MO. SCT SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ATTM ACROSS MI AND NRN INDIANA. FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS NRN INDIANA THIS AFTN. UNTIL THAT TIME EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO CONT IN THE AREA. ADDED A MENTION OF TSTMS EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO PROXIMITY OF SCT ACTIVITY. LEFT OUT FOR THIS AFTN DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING BUT MAY NEED TO ADD WITH LATER ISSUANCES...ESPECIALLY AT FWA WHERE FROPA WILL BE A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY. BEHIND THE FRONT CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... UPDATE... WILL UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS TO LOWER POPS FROM LIKELY IN THE WEST TO SCATTERED WORDING (40 PERCENT). THE FAR SOUTHEAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. WEAK LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST...COUPLED WITH SOME LIFT FROM AN APCHING VORT LOBE...SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE LIKELY WORDING MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. LATEST RUC AND 00Z NAM SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE DEVELOP ACRS THE REGION BETWEEN 5 AM AND 6 AM EDT...SO WILL LEAVE WEDNESDAY/S FCST IN TACT ATTM. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S STILL LOOK GOOD. SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING CONVECTION INITIALLY STABILIZED UPSTREAM AIRMASS OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN. SUNSHINE BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOWING FOR MODEST WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION. CONVECTION NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE BASED COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN IOWA AT 1930Z. MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT AND WED IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. EXPECT CONVECTION TO EXPAND UPSCALE THIS EVENING WITH AN AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS OVERSPREADING THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW OHIO WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED FROM DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING AND WILL LIKELY STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. STORMS MAY BE INITIALLY SEVERE UPSTREAM...BUT UNFAVORABLE LATE NIGHT TIMING AND LACK OF WELL DEFINED FLOW FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS FAR EAST OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION TOMORROW. STILL EXPECT SOME RAIN FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT CLEARING/SUNSHINE FOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. IF ENOUGH SUN BREAKS OUT IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION COULD POTENTIALLY SEE STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA JUST AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. NEW SWODY2 OUTLOOK PLACES THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION. PRIMARY MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM APPEARS TO LAG SURFACE FRONT WITH ONLY MARGINAL FLOW FOR HIGHER ORDER STORM ORGANIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR. LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FIRST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS RAIN CHANCES AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WED NGT. WELL DEFINED AND COMPACT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SHORTWAVE TAIL EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ONGOING CONVECTION FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE SHORT TERM WILL COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR WED EVENING. IF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS CORRECT IN RE-DEVELOPING CONVECTION UPSTREAM THIS EVENING AND BRINGING AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS THE CWA WED...DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE WED AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN WEAKENING SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. GIVEN WEAKENING OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND QUESTIONABLE DESTABILIZATION WED PM...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY WED NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN STILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. BY SUN OR EARLY NEXT WEEK PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE AS THE DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ROCKIES BEGINS TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO ACTIVE PACIFIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES. SOME BIGGER DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE ITERATIONS TODAY WITH THE DETAILS OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLUTION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT GENERAL IDEA OF A MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NW IS STILL INTACT. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL BE EJECTED OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SPREADING WITH TIME INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE EXPECT A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AND BECOME E/W IN ORIENTATION. THE 00Z/06 GFS NOW PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION...BUT CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUPPORT A MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT WITH THE FRONT STALLING NEAR OUR LATITUDE. CURRENTLY GULF INFLOW IS BEING IMPAIRED BY LARGE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE GREATLY NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH BUILDS EAST AND ALLOWS FOR SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SUN THROUGH MON NGT BUT WILL OPT TO LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR TUE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH FRONTAL POSITION AT THIS TIME RANGE. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HICKMAN SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK AVIATION...TAYLOR in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 445 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006 .DISCUSSION... WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A PERSISTENT RDG OVER THE ROCKIES WITH ERN CONUS TROF FEATURING EMBEDDED MID LVL LOWS OVER CNTRL UPR MI AND OFF THE NC COAST. AT THE SFC...A WEAK TROF EXTENDED ACRS CNTRL UPR MI FROM A LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDED FROM THE LOW INTO ERN ND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FALLING OFF INTO EH MID AND UPPER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT. RADARS INDICATED AN AREA OF RAIN AND SOME ISOLD TSRA CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM LK MI INTO E UPR SUPPORTED BY DPVA/QVECT CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LVL LOW. RAIN HAD DIMINISHED OR ENDED OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. AFTER WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINED IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER UPR MI AND UPSTREAM AS LITTLE DRY ADVECTION NOTED BEHIND THE TROF WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. SO...AREAS OF FOG...LCLY DENSE HAS DEVELOPED. MDLS WERE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH UPSTREAM 100 KT H3 JET OVER SRN CANADA AND SHRTWV ENERGY OVER NRN MANITOBA HELPING TO PUSH THE MID LVL LOW SLOWLY EAST. ANOTHER MID LVL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN ONTARIO WHICH DIGS TOWARD THE CNTRL LAKES BY THU INTO FRI. WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC RDG BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH NRLY WINDS...SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TODAY...EXPECT SCT SHRA TO LINGER OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA SUPPORTED BY QVECTOR CONV VCNTY MID LVL TROF AND DEFORMATION ZONE. FCST MUCAPE NEAR 300 J/KG PER NAM AND RUC WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD TSRA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN THICK ENOUGH TO LIMIT INSOLATION AND ANY SIGNIFICANT SFC BASED CAPE. EVEN THOUGH THE GFS HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER CNTRL UPR MI...THE FORCING ALONG A WEAK VORT AXIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. SO...THE DRIER NAM/RUC WERE PREFERRED. WITH A SHRTWV RDG AND QVECTOR DIV BUILDING INTO THE WEST HALF...GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S LOOK ON TRACK. TONIGHT...THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN NEAR ENOUGH TO THE MID LVL TROF AXIS AS THE MANITOBA SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH TO KEEP IN LOW POP SHRA CHANCES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S. THU...GOING WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE CAA AND HGT FALLS INTO THE LAKES...PER 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...EXPECT H8 TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 5C-7C RANGE SUPPORTING HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO TO AROUND 70 WITH TEMPS AOB 60F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STIFF NRLY BREEZE. FRI-MON...TRENDED TEMPS COLDER IN LINE WITH THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z/06 AND 00Z/07 ECMWF. WITH COOL DRY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO SUN...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST. BY MON SLGT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WAA PATTERN TO BRING RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA...PER 12Z/06 ECMWF. IF TREND CONTINUES TOWARD THE 00Z/07 ECMWF/UKMET/GFS DRY WEATHER WOULD ALSO PERSIST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 259 AM MDT WED JUN 7 2006 CORRECTED VERBIAGE IN FIRST/SECOND PARAGRAPHS. .DISCUSSION... FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND DIURNAL TEMP RANGES. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NE NM. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL IN OLD MEXICO IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD ON WRN PERIPHERY OF UPR HIGH. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE A MAIN PLAYER INITIATING STORMS OVER WRN NM THIS WEEK. 00Z NAM/GFS WERE AWFULLY DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE NEW 06Z NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER. EAST CANYON WINDS THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON MAY HIGHLY DEPEND ON DRY SLOT WHICH IS WORKING THROUGH THE SE PORTION OF THE UPPER HIGH. IF THIS DRIER AIR ROTATES INTO THE CWA...FEWER STORMS WILL SPARK. ALL FOUS GUIDANCE DROP POPS INTO THE LOW RANGE OF THE ISOLD CATEGORY. WILL LEAVE INTEGRITY OF GRIDS IN SHAPE... HOWEVER WILL DROP VALUES TO TEN PERCENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT 20S IN THE SW MOUNTAINS/NRN HIGH TERRAIN. EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S NOW...AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD DROP VALUES SOMEWHAT. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG/WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO BE DRY IN NATURE. WITH INVERTED V-TYPE MODEL SOUNDINGS...WILL MENTION GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND ZFP. 700MB TEMPS FALL ON THE ORDER OF 1-3C...EXCEPT NE PLAINS. MORNING CLOUDS...MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LYR AND AFOREMENTIONED COOLING ALOFT WILL ALLOW READINGS TO BE 3-8F COOLER COMPARED TO TUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WRN ZONES. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH UPR HIGH SHIFTING FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN PCPN ACROSS THE WRN CWFA TONIGHT. MOISTURE SURGE WILL CONTINUE ON BACKSIDE OF UPR HIGH...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AND DECENT LAPSE RATES. RAISED POPS NEAR THE AZ BORDER AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF WET/DRY CELLS. SIDED WITH THE WARM MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS TEMPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO THE LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOCUS FOR PCPN REMAINS OVER WRN NM FOR THU AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY INVADING THE CENTRAL ZONES AS THE UPR HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. ENOUGH TOP-DOWN EFFECT WILL KEEP PCPN OF THE MIXED VARIETY...LIKELY MORE WET THAN DRY. MAV LOOKS ATTRACTIVE FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THU...KEEPING DIURNAL RANGES FAIRLY TIGHT OVER THE WEST. ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS INTO FRI/FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WRN ZONES BEFORE DECENT MOISTURE TAP FROM OLD MEXICO ENDS. WILL KEEP ISOLATED TOKEN TEN POPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SW FLOW ALOFT MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RECYCLING MODE OF MOISTURE WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS. DPORTER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 94 62 85 57 / 10 20 30 30 GALLUP.......................... 88 54 79 48 / 10 30 30 30 GRANTS.......................... 90 55 82 49 / 5 20 30 30 GLENWOOD........................ 94 60 89 57 / 20 30 30 30 CHAMA........................... 82 45 75 43 / 20 20 20 30 LOS ALAMOS...................... 84 55 79 51 / 10 10 20 30 RED RIVER....................... 75 41 72 40 / 20 20 10 20 TAOS............................ 86 49 85 46 / 10 10 10 20 SANTA FE........................ 87 56 85 53 / 10 10 20 20 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 89 58 87 55 / 10 10 20 20 ESPANOLA........................ 93 54 88 53 / 10 10 20 20 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 92 66 90 63 / 0 10 20 30 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 93 65 91 61 / 0 10 20 30 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 92 64 89 60 / 10 10 20 30 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 93 65 90 63 / 0 10 20 30 SOCORRO......................... 94 62 91 59 / 5 10 20 20 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 84 52 78 48 / 10 10 20 30 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 89 53 84 52 / 10 10 20 20 CARRIZOZO....................... 92 59 87 56 / 5 10 10 10 RUIDOSO......................... 83 53 78 49 / 10 10 10 10 RATON........................... 90 51 90 52 / 10 10 5 5 LAS VEGAS....................... 86 54 85 53 / 10 10 10 10 ROY............................. 88 59 91 58 / 5 5 5 5 CLAYTON......................... 92 62 95 63 / 5 5 5 5 SANTA ROSA...................... 94 60 95 59 / 5 5 10 10 TUCUMCARI....................... 96 65 99 65 / 5 5 5 5 FORT SUMNER..................... 94 64 94 64 / 5 5 5 5 CLOVIS.......................... 94 64 95 64 / 5 5 5 5 PORTALES........................ 96 63 95 63 / 5 5 5 5 ROSWELL......................... 99 65 98 67 / 5 5 5 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 46 nm AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 259 AM MDT WED JUN 7 2006 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND DIURNAL TEMP RANGES. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NE NM. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL IN OLD MEXICO IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD ON WRN PERIPHERY OF UPR HIGH. EXPECT THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER OVER WRN NM THIS WEEK. 00Z NAM/GFS WERE AWFULLY DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE NEW 06Z NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER. EAST CANYON WINDS THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON MAY HIGHLY DEPEND ON DRY SLOT WHICH IS WORKING THROUGH THE SE PORTION OF THE UPPER HIGH. IF THIS DRIER AIR ROTATES INTO THE CWA...FEWER STORMS WILL SPARK. ALL FOUS GUIDANCE DROP POPS INTO THE LOW RANGE OF THE ISOLD CATEGORY. WILL LEAVE INTEGRITY OF GRIDS IN SHAPE... HOWEVER WILL DROP VALUES TO TEN PERCENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT 20S IN THE SW MOUNTAINS/NRN HIGH TERRAIN. EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S NOW...AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD DROP VALUES SOMEWHAT. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG/WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO BE DRY IN NATURE. WITH INVERTED V-TYPE MODEL SOUNDINGS...WILL MENTION GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND ZFP. 700MB TEMPS FALL ON THE ORDER OF 1-3C...EXCLUDING THE NE. MORNING CLOUDS AND MORE MOIST LOW LEVELS...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 3-8F COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WRN ZONES. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH UPR HIGH SHIFTING FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN PCPN ACROSS THE WRN CWFA TONIGHT. MOISTURE SURGE WILL CONTINUE ON BACKSIDE OF UPR HIGH...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. RAISED POPS ALONG THE ARIZONA BORDER AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF WET/DRY CELLS. SIDED WITH THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TEMPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO THE LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOCUS FOR PCPN REMAINS OVER WRN NM FOR THU AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY INVADING THE CENTRAL ZONES AS THE UPR HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. ENOUGH TOP-DOWN EFFECT WILL KEEP PCPN OF THE MIXED VARIETY...LIKELY MORE WET THAN DRY. MAV LOOKS ATTRACTIVE FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THU...KEEPING DIURNAL RANGES FAIRLY TIGHT OVER THE WEST. ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS INTO FRI/FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WRN ZONES BEFORE DECENT MOISTURE TAP FROM OLD MEXICO ENDS. WILL KEEP ISOLATED TOKEN TEN POPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SW FLOW ALOFT MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RECYCLING MODE OF MOISTURE WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS. DPORTER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 94 62 85 57 / 10 20 30 30 GALLUP.......................... 88 54 79 48 / 10 30 30 30 GRANTS.......................... 90 55 82 49 / 5 20 30 30 GLENWOOD........................ 94 60 89 57 / 20 30 30 30 CHAMA........................... 82 45 75 43 / 20 20 20 30 LOS ALAMOS...................... 84 55 79 51 / 10 10 20 30 RED RIVER....................... 75 41 72 40 / 20 20 10 20 TAOS............................ 86 49 85 46 / 10 10 10 20 SANTA FE........................ 87 56 85 53 / 10 10 20 20 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 89 58 87 55 / 10 10 20 20 ESPANOLA........................ 93 54 88 53 / 10 10 20 20 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 92 66 90 63 / 0 10 20 30 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 93 65 91 61 / 0 10 20 30 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 92 64 89 60 / 10 10 20 30 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 93 65 90 63 / 0 10 20 30 SOCORRO......................... 94 62 91 59 / 5 10 20 20 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 84 52 78 48 / 10 10 20 30 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 89 53 84 52 / 10 10 20 20 CARRIZOZO....................... 92 59 87 56 / 5 10 10 10 RUIDOSO......................... 83 53 78 49 / 10 10 10 10 RATON........................... 90 51 90 52 / 10 10 5 5 LAS VEGAS....................... 86 54 85 53 / 10 10 10 10 ROY............................. 88 59 91 58 / 5 5 5 5 CLAYTON......................... 92 62 95 63 / 5 5 5 5 SANTA ROSA...................... 94 60 95 59 / 5 5 10 10 TUCUMCARI....................... 96 65 99 65 / 5 5 5 5 FORT SUMNER..................... 94 64 94 64 / 5 5 5 5 CLOVIS.......................... 94 64 95 64 / 5 5 5 5 PORTALES........................ 96 63 95 63 / 5 5 5 5 ROSWELL......................... 99 65 98 67 / 5 5 5 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 46 nm AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 905 AM MST WED JUN 7 2006 SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US A MOIST FLOW ALOFT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST OF THE PHOENIX AREA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING AN END TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE DESERTS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM... TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW HAS SHIFTED NORTH TO A CENTRAL CO TO UT LINE BY 14Z WITH A LARGE TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA. RUC PICKED UP ON THE STRONGEST VORT MAX NEAR 30N WITH AN OBVIOUS DRY SLOT TO THE EAST. WATER VAPOR LOOP EVEN SHOWED THIS WEDGE OF DRIER AIR WORKING NORTHWARD...AND CARRYING THE CONVECTION TOWARD YAVAPAI AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL ELEVATED...WITH AZ SOUNDINGS PRETTY RICH...IN FACT...1.01 AND 1.22 INCHES AT YUMA AND TUCSON RESPECTIVELY. BY 15Z CONVECTION NOW INTO EASTERN YUMA COUNTY AND WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS THERE. MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP WITH STRONGER DYNAMICS AT AND ABOVE 400MB MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES LATE TODAY. BUT NAM APPEARS TOO SLOW WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM THAT IS NOW TO THE NORTH OF KPHX. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS IN THE SHORT TERM TRENDS. BY FRIDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE VEERED TO A DRIER SOUTHWEST PATTERN...AND THE FORECAST TRENDS ARE GENERALLY GOOD. FURTHER UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AFTER COORDINATION CALL WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES/POSSIBLY SPC. && .LONG TERM... FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC TROUGH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY SO THAT IT AGREES BETTER WITH THE ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...GFS STILL DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. WITH THE DRYING...DIURNAL TEMP RANGES INCREASE. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SLOWER TO DO THAT. THUS SHOW VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND PARED BACK WIND SPEEDS A BIT. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS ADEQUATELY DEPICT EXPECTED WEATHER. SEE TAFS PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX SIPPLE az AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1201 PM EDT WED JUN 7 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON CURRENT WEATHER...15Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 12Z RAOBS SHOWED AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. AND CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER LOWS IN NE MANITOBA AND OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH A SHRTWV INBETWEEN THE LOWS OVER NW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SHRTWV OVER NW LOWER MICHIGAN WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY RAIN SEEN YESTERDAY OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...THIS RAIN HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER NE LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN COMBINED WITH SOME CLEARING LAST NIGHT LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS MOSTLY MIXED OUT NOW EXCEPT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE COOLER STABLE AIR. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MIXING AND ADVECTION FROM THE NW. 12Z INL SOUNDING SHOWED THE DRY AIR WITH NEARLY AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 700MB. THIS CLEARING COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE THROUGH THE 60S ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NW LOWER MICHIGAN SHRTWV AND NE MANITOBA UPPER LOW...EXTENDS FROM FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION FROM THE NW...ALONG WITH RISING HEIGHTS WITH THE SHRTWV IN NW LOWER MICHIGAN MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA...WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO DECREASE EVEN MORE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P.. INLAND AREAS HEATING UP WILL ALSO RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE STABILIZATION OF NEARSHORE AREAS...WHICH WOULD ALSO HELP CLEAR SKIES OUT. THE ONLY CONCERN REGARDING THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P. IS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AREA WHERE THE 12Z RUC SUGGESTED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION DEVELOPING. CAPE VALUES FROM THE RUC PRIOR TO CONVECTION WERE AROUND 1600 J/KG...BUT THE SOUNDINGS LOOKED A LITTLE TOO MOIST AT THE SURFACE (LOW 60S). GIVEN THAT MIXING WILL HELP DRAG DRIER AIR DOWN FROM ALOFT...THINK TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S SEEMS MORE REASONABLE...WHICH RESULTS IN CAPE AROUND 300 J/KG. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS SIMILAR CAPE...AROUND 300 J/KG GIVEN THE ABOVE MODIFICATION...BUT A CAP AROUND 650MB. THIS CAP CAN BE SEEN ON THE 12Z INL SOUNDING AND SEEMS MORE REALISTIC...ESPECIALLY SINCE HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE WITH THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. PLUS...AM NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP IN MENOMINEE COUNTY GIVEN 25-30KT NW FLOW AT 850MB. THEREFORE HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL. AS FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...THE SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST...SO THERE IS STILL IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING THE EASTERN CWA. RECENT RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THIS BY A FEW SHOWERS OVER WHITEFISH BAY. HOWEVER... WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTHEAST...THINK THE COVERAGE WILL STAY ISOLATED. SO HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE EASTERN CWA. .PREV DISCUSSION... WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A PERSISTENT RDG OVER THE ROCKIES WITH ERN CONUS TROF FEATURING EMBEDDED MID LVL LOWS OVER CNTRL UPR MI AND OFF THE NC COAST. AT THE SFC...A WEAK TROF EXTENDED ACRS CNTRL UPR MI FROM A LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDED FROM THE LOW INTO ERN ND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FALLING OFF INTO EH MID AND UPPER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT. RADARS INDICATED AN AREA OF RAIN AND SOME ISOLD TSRA CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM LK MI INTO E UPR SUPPORTED BY DPVA/QVECT CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LVL LOW. RAIN HAD DIMINISHED OR ENDED OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. AFTER WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINED IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER UPR MI AND UPSTREAM AS LITTLE DRY ADVECTION NOTED BEHIND THE TROF WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. SO...AREAS OF FOG...LCLY DENSE HAS DEVELOPED. MDLS WERE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH UPSTREAM 100 KT H3 JET OVER SRN CANADA AND SHRTWV ENERGY OVER NRN MANITOBA HELPING TO PUSH THE MID LVL LOW SLOWLY EAST. ANOTHER MID LVL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN ONTARIO WHICH DIGS TOWARD THE CNTRL LAKES BY THU INTO FRI. WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC RDG BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH NRLY WINDS...SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TODAY...EXPECT SCT SHRA TO LINGER OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA SUPPORTED BY QVECTOR CONV VCNTY MID LVL TROF AND DEFORMATION ZONE. FCST MUCAPE NEAR 300 J/KG PER NAM AND RUC WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD TSRA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN THICK ENOUGH TO LIMIT INSOLATION AND ANY SIGNIFICANT SFC BASED CAPE. EVEN THOUGH THE GFS HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER CNTRL UPR MI...THE FORCING ALONG A WEAK VORT AXIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. SO...THE DRIER NAM/RUC WERE PREFERRED. WITH A SHRTWV RDG AND QVECTOR DIV BUILDING INTO THE WEST HALF...GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S LOOK ON TRACK. TONIGHT...THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN NEAR ENOUGH TO THE MID LVL TROF AXIS AS THE MANITOBA SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH TO KEEP IN LOW POP SHRA CHANCES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S. THU...GOING WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE CAA AND HGT FALLS INTO THE LAKES...PER 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...EXPECT H8 TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 5C-7C RANGE SUPPORTING HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO TO AROUND 70 WITH TEMPS AOB 60F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STIFF NRLY BREEZE. FRI-MON...TRENDED TEMPS COLDER IN LINE WITH THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z/06 AND 00Z/07 ECMWF. WITH COOL DRY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO SUN...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST. BY MON SLGT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WAA PATTERN TO BRING RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA...PER 12Z/06 ECMWF. IF TREND CONTINUES TOWARD THE 00Z/07 ECMWF/UKMET/GFS DRY WEATHER WOULD ALSO PERSIST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AJ (SHORT-TERM) JLB (PREV DISCUSSION) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1025 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...12Z SOUNDING SHOWS NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS FROM THE GROUND UP. MOISTURE MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH WEAK VORT ENERGY SHOWN ON THE RUC40 TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT PUBLIC ZONES IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES NEEDED. && .AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED MOST OF PERIOD. SOME CU/SCU EXPECTED THIS AFTN WITH HEATING BUT ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION AT BEST. SW WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL PRECLUDE ANY WDSPRD IFR OVERNIGHT BUT SOME AREAS MVFR VSBYS PSBL. && .MARINE...WILL HOLD UPDATE UNTIL AFTER 11 AM TO LET SCEC EXPIRE. SEAS STILL 4-5 FEET OVER NRN WATERS BUT EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS AFTN WITH WINDS DECREASING AND SHIFTING TO W AND SW. CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ HSA/JBM nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1023 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT ALONG INDIANA/ILLINOIS LINE WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROF FROM TOLEDO TO BLOOMINGTON (IN). KILN RADAR SHOWING BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROF. MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE JUST SOUTH OF INDIANAPOLIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT TO SOME DEGREE OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION. HAVE UPDATED WESTERN ZONES TO UP POPS TO LIKELY WITH CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND POISED TO MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO AS STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE DIVES DOWN INTO THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER OVER OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH RUC PROGGING BLYR CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG BY 21Z. WET BULB ZERO IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 9 KFT. SMALL T0 1 INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. THUS...HAVE INCLUDED SEVERE WORDING IN THE WEST FOR AFT/EVE. TIPTON && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006/ AVIATION /12Z-12Z/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA. IT LOOKS LIKE THEY COULD PASS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE KDAY TAF SITE THROUGH THIS MORNING SO WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OF TEMPO -SHRA AND CB THERE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES SOME AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO AREA. DUE TO EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE...THINK BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS AT THIS TIME IS WITH A VCTS. A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO PUSH DOWN INTO OHIO THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW UP ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND THE GFS IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE NAM IS RELATIVELY DRY. GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TIME OF YEAR...AM HESITANT TO FORECAST IFR CIGS THAT FAR OUT SO WILL MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR NOW. PREV DISCUSSION... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006 SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... QUICK UPDATE TO ADD LIKELY POPS TO NW ZONES. PRECIP HAS HELD TOGETHER BETTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. RLG /ISSUED 346 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING VORT MAX. ANTICIPATE THIS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR CWA WHICH IS MORE STABLE. GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH SPC HAS PLACED UNDER A SLIGHT RISK. WET BULB ZERO HOVERS AROUND 9000 FT AND SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. HAVE TAPERED POPS OFF IN THE WEST BY THURSDAY MORNING AND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS. WITH SCATTERED NATURE OF CONVECTION...HAVE BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE IS TWO TOWARD WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. GUIDANCE SEEMED FAIRLY REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SO USED A BLEND. RLG LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS IN CONSIDERABLE FLUX...PARTICULARLY THE GFS AND MAV GUIDANCE. THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE DRIER THAN RECENT WEEKS...AND IS NOW TRENDING COOLER THAN YESTERDAY'S RUNS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE AREA REMAINS IN N/NW FLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. HAVE BUFFERED THE NEW LOWER MAV GUIDANCE SOMEWHAT BY NOT TRENDING QUITE AS LOW FOR HIGH TEMPS AS GUIDANCE AND LOCAL TEMPS APPLIED TO THE 12Z GFS INDICATE. FOR SUNDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A BNDRY NOW SKIRTS THE SOUTHERN FCST AREA. AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EVEN IN THE NORTH. THEN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP AS HIGH TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S. INSTABILITY PICKS UP AND WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 1104 AM MDT WED JUN 7 2006 .UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. ALSO INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. && .PREV DISCUSSION...259 AM MDT WED JUN 7 2006. FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND DIURNAL TEMP RANGES. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NE NM. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL IN OLD MEXICO IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD ON WRN PERIPHERY OF UPR HIGH. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE A MAIN PLAYER INITIATING STORMS OVER WRN NM THIS WEEK. 00Z NAM/GFS WERE AWFULLY DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE NEW 06Z NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER. EAST CANYON WINDS THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON MAY HIGHLY DEPEND ON DRY SLOT WHICH IS WORKING THROUGH THE SE PORTION OF THE UPPER HIGH. IF THIS DRIER AIR ROTATES INTO THE CWA...FEWER STORMS WILL SPARK. ALL FOUS GUIDANCE DROP POPS INTO THE LOW RANGE OF THE ISOLD CATEGORY. WILL LEAVE INTEGRITY OF GRIDS IN SHAPE... HOWEVER WILL DROP VALUES TO TEN PERCENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT 20S IN THE SW MOUNTAINS/NRN HIGH TERRAIN. EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S NOW...AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD DROP VALUES SOMEWHAT. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG/WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO BE DRY IN NATURE. WITH INVERTED V-TYPE MODEL SOUNDINGS...WILL MENTION GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND ZFP. 700MB TEMPS FALL ON THE ORDER OF 1-3C...EXCEPT NE PLAINS. MORNING CLOUDS...MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LYR AND AFOREMENTIONED COOLING ALOFT WILL ALLOW READINGS TO BE 3-8F COOLER COMPARED TO TUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WRN ZONES. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH UPR HIGH SHIFTING FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN PCPN ACROSS THE WRN CWFA TONIGHT. MOISTURE SURGE WILL CONTINUE ON BACKSIDE OF UPR HIGH...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AND DECENT LAPSE RATES. RAISED POPS NEAR THE AZ BORDER AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF WET/DRY CELLS. SIDED WITH THE WARM MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS TEMPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO THE LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOCUS FOR PCPN REMAINS OVER WRN NM FOR THU AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY INVADING THE CENTRAL ZONES AS THE UPR HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. ENOUGH TOP-DOWN EFFECT WILL KEEP PCPN OF THE MIXED VARIETY...LIKELY MORE WET THAN DRY. MAV LOOKS ATTRACTIVE FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THU...KEEPING DIURNAL RANGES FAIRLY TIGHT OVER THE WEST. ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS INTO FRI/FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WRN ZONES BEFORE DECENT MOISTURE TAP FROM OLD MEXICO ENDS. WILL KEEP ISOLATED TOKEN TEN POPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SW FLOW ALOFT MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RECYCLING MODE OF MOISTURE WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS. DPORTER && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 46/23 nm AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 152 PM EDT WED JUN 7 2006 .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS FROM KCMH TO KCVG IS DYING OUT. HOWEVER, SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS A FAVORED AREA OF CONVECTION FROM KDAY TO KBMG. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN IN THE DAYTIME HEATING...AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT KCVG AND KLUK BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS UPPER LOW NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN BEGINS TO FILL IN BUT DIVE SOUTH INTO OHIO LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH AFT INTO THE EVENING BEFORE INSTABILTY WANES AND ONLY SHOWERS ARE LEFT. WILL BRING SOME MVFR CIGS IN FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LOW SLIDES INTO OHIO. THESE CONDITIONS ARE COMMON UPSTREAM. CIGS AND AM FOG WILL BREAK OUT ON THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW THURSDAY AM. TIPTON && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT ALONG INDIANA/ILLINOIS LINE WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROF FROM TOLEDO TO BLOOMINGTON (IN). KILN RADAR SHOWING BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROF. MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE JUST SOUTH OF INDIANAPOLIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT TO SOME DEGREE OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION. HAVE UPDATED WESTERN ZONES TO UP POPS TO LIKELY WITH CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND POISED TO MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO AS STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE DIVES DOWN INTO THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER OVER OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH RUC PROGGING BLYR CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG BY 21Z. WET BULB ZERO IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 9 KFT. SMALL T0 1 INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. THUS...HAVE INCLUDED SEVERE WORDING IN THE WEST FOR AFT/EVE. TIPTON PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006/ AVIATION /12Z-12Z/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA. IT LOOKS LIKE THEY COULD PASS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE KDAY TAF SITE THROUGH THIS MORNING SO WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OF TEMPO -SHRA AND CB THERE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES SOME AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO AREA. DUE TO EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE...THINK BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS AT THIS TIME IS WITH A VCTS. A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO PUSH DOWN INTO OHIO THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW UP ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND THE GFS IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE NAM IS RELATIVELY DRY. GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TIME OF YEAR...AM HESITANT TO FORECAST IFR CIGS THAT FAR OUT SO WILL MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR NOW. PREV DISCUSSION... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006 SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... QUICK UPDATE TO ADD LIKELY POPS TO NW ZONES. PRECIP HAS HELD TOGETHER BETTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. RLG /ISSUED 346 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING VORT MAX. ANTICIPATE THIS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR CWA WHICH IS MORE STABLE. GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH SPC HAS PLACED UNDER A SLIGHT RISK. WET BULB ZERO HOVERS AROUND 9000 FT AND SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. HAVE TAPERED POPS OFF IN THE WEST BY THURSDAY MORNING AND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS. WITH SCATTERED NATURE OF CONVECTION...HAVE BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE IS TWO TOWARD WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. GUIDANCE SEEMED FAIRLY REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SO USED A BLEND. RLG LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS IN CONSIDERABLE FLUX...PARTICULARLY THE GFS AND MAV GUIDANCE. THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE DRIER THAN RECENT WEEKS...AND IS NOW TRENDING COOLER THAN YESTERDAY'S RUNS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE AREA REMAINS IN N/NW FLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. HAVE BUFFERED THE NEW LOWER MAV GUIDANCE SOMEWHAT BY NOT TRENDING QUITE AS LOW FOR HIGH TEMPS AS GUIDANCE AND LOCAL TEMPS APPLIED TO THE 12Z GFS INDICATE. FOR SUNDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A BNDRY NOW SKIRTS THE SOUTHERN FCST AREA. AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EVEN IN THE NORTH. THEN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP AS HIGH TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S. INSTABILITY PICKS UP AND WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 250 PM CDT WED JUN 7 2006 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON CHANCES OF PCPN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ISOLATED -SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING REACHED IN COMBO WITH DECENT SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS DEPICTED ON MSAS SFC ANALYSIS. ISOLATED SHRA DEVLOPING IN MQT COUNTY ON WRN EDGE OF SFC CONVERGENCE AND AHEAD OF WEAK SHORT WAVE ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS THAT RUC BRINGS THRU WRN WI LATE AFTN/ERLY EVENING. REGION OF 1000-1500J/KG MUCAPE AND A NARROW BAND OF 40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OVER CNTRL/ERN SECTIONS OF CWA. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES ARE 7-8 DEG C...BUT MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 5 DEG C. WITH MID LVL DRYING SETTLING OVR RGN IN WAKE OF WEAK SHRT WV AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING DO NOT EXPECT ANY ISOLATED SHRA TO LAST PAST SUNDOWN. WILL GO WITH ISOLATED SHRA IN AFFECTED COUNTIES JUST TO WEST OF LAKE BOUNDARY FOR THIS EVENING. MODELS IN AGREEMENT BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS RGN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS AND NAM SHOWING A SHORTWAVE ...MOST LIKELY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE FROM PLAINS MCS THAT DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT...TOPPING THE RIDGE AND MOVING INTO WI FRI. LOW CHC POPS DUE TO SOME PLACEMENT AND TIMING DIFFERENCES AND DRY BNDRY LAYER AIR... SO TRENDED CLOSER TO THE LESSER GFS QPF FIELD AS SFC AND 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONES REMAIN SW OF CWA AND WILL NOT GET DECENT RETURN FLOW OF WARMTH/MOISTURE TO SPREAD NWD BACK INTO SRN WI. PCPN AND CLOUDS WILL COOL TEMPS A CATEGORY FROM PREV FCST CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE. HI PRES WILL BRING COOL EASTERLY WINDS OVER CWA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 70 IN WRN CWA AS GFS 850 TEMPS FALL TO +4 TO +6 DEG C. SLOW TEMP MODERATION INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH DETAILS OF CENTRAL US RIDGE FLATTENING. HAVE CHC POPS FOR MON AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MOST MODELS AGREEING THAT WAVE THAT WILL KNOCK DOWN RIDGE AND ASSOC ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS RGN DURING THAT TIME FRAME. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 09/09 wi